Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260513

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260513_ARI@TEX 20260513_CHC@ATL 20260513_COL@PIT 20260513_DET@NYM 20260513_KC@CHW 20260513_LAA@CLE 20260513_MIA@MIN 20260513_NYY@BAL 20260513_PHI@BOS 20260513_SD@MIL 20260513_SEA@HOU 20260513_SF@LAD 20260513_STL@OAK 20260513_TB@TOR 20260513_WAS@CIN

20260513_ARI@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 TEX", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 TEX", "winner": "ARI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "ARI 4 - 3 TEX", "winner": "ARI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ARI 4 - 3 TEX	ARI	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ARI 4 - 3 TEX	ARI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ARI	4-6	0.400	2.90	2.60	3	3W	cold	strong
Home TEX	4-6	0.400	2.90	4.10	-12	1L	cold	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	ARI @ TEX	1 - 0	ARI	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ARI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target TEX	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ARI	34	8	3	0	1	2	9
Player finalized TEX	31	7	3	0	0	2	9
Player model fractional ARI	32.53	6.14	3.49	0.66	3.23	2.80	7.45
Player model fractional TEX	30.82	6.72	3.59	0.86	2.98	3.35	7.47
Simulation box ARI	36	9	4	1	4	2	6
Simulation box TEX	34	7	3	0	3	3	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ARI	Starter	Ryne Nelson	4.20	2	8	4	3	5.52	1.34	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.85	1.24	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1.10	0	2	0	0	4.15	1.30	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	0	1	1	0	4.39	1.34	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	0.20	1	0	2	0	4.61	1.39	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Michael Soroka	1	1	0	1	0	4.70	1.42	-
Home TEX	Starter	Kumar Rocker	4.20	3	3	7	1	4.78	1.46	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.20	0	1	0	0	2.33	0.85	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	1.20	1	1	2	1	3.27	1.11	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	1	0	1	0	0	4.88	1.51	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Gavin Collyer	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.04	1.15	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ARI

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2628

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_AB	3.513	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.513	3.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.333	-0.263	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	1.000	0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.500	-0.164	-0.300
predicted_R	0.641	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	1.000	-0.641	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.333	-0.496	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.103	-
predicted_AB	3.513	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.031
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.049
predicted_AB	3.450	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	-0.012
predicted_H	0.798	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.596	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.205	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.255

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.2059	0.3171	0.3529	0.2059	0.0294	0.0588	0.1471	0.1177
season	0.20	39	-	137.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	25.000	21.000	39.000	0.2628	0.3642	0.4964	0.2628	0.0365	0.1460	0.1533	0.2847

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0190
predicted_AB	3.4050
predicted_AVG	0.2382
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.2090
predicted_SLG	0.3920
predicted_SO	0.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2840	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1030	0.0190	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5130	3.4050	3.4499	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2382	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.5180	0.5263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8110	0.7981	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0688	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3547	0.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.5640	0.5960	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2090	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3920	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5630	0.7448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	3.000	0.318	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.565	0.750
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.682	0.000	2.318	3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.230	0.000	0.520	0.750
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.591	0.000	1.409	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	0.691	1.000
predicted_SO	1.273	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	2.000	-1.273	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.498	-0.184
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.043
predicted_H	0.580	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.219	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.249	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.1429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	15.000	0.1471	0.1892	0.2647	0.1471	0.0294	0.1177	0.0588	0.4412
season	0.20	22	-	81.000	15.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	5.000	28.000	0.1852	0.2299	0.3086	0.1852	0.0247	0.1605	0.0617	0.3457

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3430
predicted_AVG	0.1762
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2454
predicted_R	0.1730
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2877
predicted_SO	1.2280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1710	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.3430	3.4984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1762	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.3060	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5890	0.5803	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0627	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2454	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.1730	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3690	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2877	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.2280	1.2486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2092

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	4.280	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.135	4.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	0.000	-0.865	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SO	0.811	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	4.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.811	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.076
predicted_3B	0.108	0.054
predicted_AB	4.067	-0.213
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	-0.026
predicted_H	0.693	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.172
predicted_RBI	0.428	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.280

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3684	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1250	0.1667	0.2750	0.1250	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.20	37	-	153.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	19.000	10.000	30.000	0.2092	0.2577	0.3660	0.2092	0.0327	0.0980	0.0654	0.1961

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.1470
predicted_AB	3.9160
predicted_AVG	0.1702
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2163
predicted_R	0.2190
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3445
predicted_SO	0.6840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.2650	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.1470	0.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2800	3.9160	4.0673	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1702	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.2250	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.6660	0.6926	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.2190	0.3416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4130	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3445	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8110	0.6840	0.7368	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	-0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.000	-0.085	0.250
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.079	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.036
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.037
predicted_AB	3.570	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	-0.133
predicted_H	0.639	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.346	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.276	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.641	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2683	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.1389	0.1667
season	0.20	38	-	130.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	23.000	21.000	0.2231	0.3355	0.3615	0.2231	0.0154	0.0923	0.1769	0.1615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0160
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.1854
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_H	0.6820
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2598
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.2772
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.2200	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0790	0.0160	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.6780	3.5704	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1854	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.3760	0.4718	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6820	0.6393	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0252	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2598	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.3110	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2940	0.2756	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5530	0.7050	0.6414	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	-0.921	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.417	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	0.105
predicted_H	0.807	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.731	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.4062	0.2500	0.0312	0.0312	0.1562	0.2500
season	0.20	38	-	130.000	35.000	4.000	6.000	18.000	20.000	11.000	28.000	0.2692	0.3287	0.4385	0.2692	0.0461	0.1385	0.0846	0.2154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4150
predicted_AVG	0.2467
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3441
predicted_R	0.5420
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.4335
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1820	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.4150	3.4175	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2467	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.4710	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8420	0.8073	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3441	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.5420	0.5352	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2570	0.2456	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4335	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.7260	0.7307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.3230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	4.062	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.062	4.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.323	0.500	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.312	2.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	1.000	0.781	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.500	0.157	0.000
predicted_R	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.719	2.000	0.281	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.546	1.250	0.954	0.250
predicted_SO	0.438	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	4.062	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.438	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	4.011	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.029
predicted_H	0.832	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.511	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.062

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1750	0.1951	0.2750	0.1750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0250	0.1000
season	0.20	32	-	130.000	42.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	23.000	22.000	4.000	14.000	0.3231	0.3433	0.5462	0.3231	0.0539	0.1769	0.0308	0.1077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.9730
predicted_AVG	0.2210
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.2553
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.6390
predicted_SLG	0.3688
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0930	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0620	3.9730	4.0110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2210	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1760	0.1542	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8780	0.8319	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1600	0.1515	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2553	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.5080	0.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6390	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3688	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4380	0.5660	0.5113	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.323

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.312	0.500
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.250	0.500
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.229	0.750	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.453	0.750
predicted_SO	0.944	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.134	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.215	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.229	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.493	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.134	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.028
predicted_H	0.436	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.215	-0.000
predicted_R	0.319	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.1429	0.2195	0.2857	0.1429	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.3714
season	0.20	18	-	64.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	17.000	0.1875	0.2500	0.2969	0.1875	0.0156	0.1094	0.0781	0.2656

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4370
predicted_AVG	0.1336
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.4590
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2147
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.2285
predicted_SO	1.1090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1270	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4370	3.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1340	0.1336	0.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.3320	0.3064	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4590	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2560	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3730	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2290	0.2285	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	1.1090	1.0307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 4

All-history rows before 20260513: 4

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.019	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.333	0.019	-0.083
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.667	-0.135	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.425	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.386	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.729	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.307	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.967	-0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.3846	0.2308	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.3846	0.2308	0.2308	0.3077
season	0.20	4	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2308	0.3846	0.2308	0.2308	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2890
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.2400
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2829
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.3916
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2890	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6330	3.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1900	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8720	0.7289	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0810	0.0675	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2829	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4120	0.3075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5680	0.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3916	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9080	0.9673	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	3.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.056	0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	-0.025	0.000
predicted_R	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	1.000	-0.294	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.226	0.000	0.024	0.250
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	1.000	0.235	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.632	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	-0.042
predicted_H	0.623	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.244	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	0.836	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.2647	0.3590	0.2941	0.2647	0.0588	0.1471	0.2647
season	0.20	17	-	62.000	12.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	13.000	0.1935	0.2754	0.2258	0.1935	0.0806	0.1129	0.2097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6180
predicted_AVG	0.1829
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2515
predicted_R	0.2520
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.2402
predicted_SO	0.9010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0940	0.1055	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.6180	3.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1829	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3320	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6620	0.6228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.2520	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2920	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2402	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.9010	0.8360	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryne Nelson (669194) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	1.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	1.000	-1.000	1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.250	2.000	-0.250	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.400	6.200	-0.200	-2.000
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.375	7.000	3.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	17.000	24.000	8.000	23.000	4.000	6.6522	1.3913	0.7391	1.0435	0.3478	1.0000	0.1739
last_10	0.35	8	38.000	24.000	34.000	14.000	35.000	8.000	5.6842	1.2632	0.6316	0.8947	0.3684	0.9211	0.2105
season	0.20	8	38.000	24.000	34.000	14.000	35.000	8.000	5.6842	1.2632	0.6316	0.8947	0.3684	0.9211	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7000
predicted_ER	2.8630
predicted_ERA	5.5206
predicted_H	4.5460
predicted_HR	0.7650
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.5200
predicted_WHIP	1.3383

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7000	2.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8630	2.4207	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5206	5.5206	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5460	4.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7650	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.5200	6.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3383	1.3383	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	8
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.68
Pitching_Flyouts	8
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669194
playerID	669194
playerName	Ryne Nelson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	0.050	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_ER	0.5700
predicted_ERA	3.8458
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2660
predicted_WHIP	1.2431

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4640	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5700	0.1501	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8458	3.8458	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1940	0.3145	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2660	0.3334	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2431	1.2431	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_ER	0.6080
predicted_ERA	4.1476
predicted_H	1.2230
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2490
predicted_WHIP	1.3013

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4950	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6080	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1476	4.1476	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2230	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1680	0.0391	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2490	1.8250	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3013	1.3013	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.4870
predicted_ERA	4.3864
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9220
predicted_WHIP	1.3447

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4870	0.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3864	4.3864	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9790	0.9949	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9220	0.9810	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3447	1.3447	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.3420
predicted_ERA	4.6130
predicted_H	0.6370
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6240
predicted_WHIP	1.3859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.0728	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3420	0.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6130	4.6130	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6370	1.6541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6240	0.1584	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3859	1.3859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Michael Soroka (647336) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.571	2.000	-1.571	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.429	1.000	-1.429	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	6.000	7.000	-5.000	-6.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.186	6.100	-4.186	-5.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	6.000	-6.000	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	16.000	34.000	7.000	29.000	4.000	5.3333	1.5185	0.5926	1.2593	0.2593	1.0741	0.1482
last_10	0.35	7	37.000	17.000	42.000	11.000	42.000	4.000	4.1351	1.4324	0.4595	1.1351	0.2973	1.1351	0.1081
season	0.20	7	37.000	17.000	42.000	11.000	42.000	4.000	4.1351	1.4324	0.4595	1.1351	0.2973	1.1351	0.1081

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1110
predicted_ER	1.8410
predicted_ERA	4.6963
predicted_H	3.9100
predicted_HR	0.4750
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.6490
predicted_WHIP	1.4233

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1110	0.5266	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8410	1.3986	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6963	4.6963	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.9100	2.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4750	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	3.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	3.6490	1.7294	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4233	1.4233	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.14
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	647336
playerID	647336
playerName	Michael Soroka
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: TEX

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.806	5.000	1.194	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.200	0.293	0.300
predicted_BB	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.581	1.000	1.419	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	1.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.200	0.292	0.400
predicted_R	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	1.000	0.710	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.226	1.000	0.774	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.800	0.190	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.903	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.903	3.000	-0.903	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	0.903	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	0.090
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.014	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.430	0.011
predicted_H	0.798	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.323	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.376	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	0.911	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.7143	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.1935	0.2500	0.3548	0.1935	0.0323	0.1290	0.0968	0.2581
season	0.20	31	-	87.000	18.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	13.000	28.000	0.2069	0.3077	0.3103	0.2069	0.0230	0.0805	0.1494	0.3218

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2640
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3484
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.4824
predicted_SO	0.9170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.2590	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	3.1060	3.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.4380	0.4296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8200	0.7978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3484	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.3490	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3890	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4824	0.4822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9030	0.9170	0.9108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3219

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	4.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.250	-0.322	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.237	1.000	-1.237	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.250	-0.371	-0.250
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.250	-0.507	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.632	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.632	1.000	1.368	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.632	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.118
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.917	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.099
predicted_H	1.197	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.342	-0.000
predicted_R	0.612	0.138
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.641	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	0.3171	0.3333	0.4146	0.3171	0.0244	0.0244	0.0000	0.1463
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	47.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	18.000	10.000	24.000	0.3219	0.3711	0.5068	0.3219	0.0343	0.1370	0.0685	0.1644

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.3188
predicted_BB	0.0930
predicted_H	1.2660
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3416
predicted_R	0.7110
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.4593
predicted_SO	0.6480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3160	0.1130	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.9710	3.9172	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.0930	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2660	1.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1399	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3416	0.3418	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.7110	0.6122	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2740	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4593	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6320	0.6480	0.6413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2935

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.667	-0.293	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	2.000	-0.964	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.750	-0.121	-0.500
predicted_R	0.536	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.536	3.000	-0.536	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	2.000	-0.464	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.478	1.667	-0.478	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.037	0.001
predicted_AB	3.497	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.033
predicted_H	0.936	0.126
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.476	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	9.000	0.3333	0.4186	0.6111	0.3333	0.0556	0.1944	0.1667	0.2500
season	0.20	28	-	92.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	12.000	20.000	0.2935	0.3714	0.4783	0.2935	0.0326	0.1413	0.1304	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6650
predicted_AVG	0.2827
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	1.0360
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3446
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.5110
predicted_SLG	0.4758
predicted_SO	0.9620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1310	0.1678	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0370	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6650	3.4968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2827	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3690	0.3956	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	1.0360	0.9357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1680	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3446	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.5950	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5110	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4758	0.4759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.9620	0.8519	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.707	4.000	-0.707	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.195	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_R	0.537	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.537	1.000	-0.537	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	1.000	-0.488	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	1.171	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	1.000	0.829	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.707	-
predicted_AVG	0.098	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.195	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.174	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.707	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.098	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.123
predicted_H	0.350	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.195	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	-0.123
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	1.174	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.094 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	13.000	0.1053	0.2093	0.1842	0.1053	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.20	41	-	152.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	20.000	22.000	22.000	48.000	0.1842	0.2921	0.3618	0.1842	0.0461	0.1316	0.1447	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.0983
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.3640
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.1952
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.1740
predicted_SO	1.1760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0500	0.0894	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7070	3.7070	3.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0980	0.0983	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.3280	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.3640	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0750	0.0729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1950	0.1952	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.3280	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3170	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1740	0.1740	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.1760	1.1739	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.583	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.583	3.000	1.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.242	0.167
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.500	0.090	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.333	0.210	0.167
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.914	0.331
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.058
predicted_H	0.780	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.172	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.198	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.738	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.3750	0.4444	0.3750	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.2593	0.3939	0.2963	0.2593	0.1852	0.1111	0.2963
season	0.20	12	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.2581	0.4103	0.2903	0.2581	0.1613	0.1613	0.2581

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2920
predicted_AVG	0.2820
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.1720
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.3701
predicted_R	0.2330
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.3584
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1040	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5830	3.2920	2.9136	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.2920	0.3587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.9280	0.7796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1720	0.1720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0460	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3701	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2330	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5680	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3584	0.3582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8200	0.7383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1780

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.189	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.189	4.000	0.811
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.000	-0.178
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	-0.541
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.568	0.000	-0.568
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	-0.300
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	-0.351
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.000	-0.347
predicted_SO	0.865	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.865	2.000	1.135

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.189	-
predicted_AVG	0.134	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.865	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.186	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.134	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.054
predicted_H	0.398	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.124
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.779	-0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	0.1212	0.2564	0.3333	0.1212	0.0606	0.1212	0.1818	0.2121
season	0.20	37	-	118.000	21.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	32.000	0.1780	0.3000	0.3475	0.1780	0.0424	0.1102	0.1695	0.2712

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1840
predicted_AVG	0.1338
predicted_BB	0.6350
predicted_H	0.4260
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.2802
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.3288
predicted_SO	0.7160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0770	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1890	3.1840	3.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1340	0.1338	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.6350	0.5951	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.4260	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1800	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.6480	0.5563	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4070	0.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8650	0.7160	0.7793	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2885

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	1.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	4.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.750	-0.288	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	3.000	-1.125	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.750	-0.367	-0.750
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	1.250	-0.436	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	0.000	0.175	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.091	0.041
predicted_AB	3.735	-0.165
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.442	0.017
predicted_H	0.937	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.112	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765
season	0.20	40	-	156.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	18.000	17.000	33.000	0.2885	0.3672	0.4359	0.2885	0.0256	0.0769	0.1090	0.2115

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.1190
predicted_AB	3.6200
predicted_AVG	0.2582
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.3440
predicted_RBI	0.1130
predicted_SLG	0.3656
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.0530	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.1190	0.0906	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.6200	3.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2582	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.4530	0.4415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9350	0.9371	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.3440	0.3876	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1130	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3656	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.6720	0.7349	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.923	3.000	0.077	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	1.000	-0.216	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	3.000	-0.846	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	1.000	-0.253	-1.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	2.000	-0.513	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	1.000	-0.346	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.103	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	0.000	-0.103	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.166
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.018
predicted_H	0.881	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.310	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	-0.320

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.923

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2162	0.2564	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.1081	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.20	39	-	153.000	33.000	5.000	5.000	20.000	13.000	7.000	43.000	0.2157	0.2531	0.3464	0.2157	0.0327	0.1307	0.0457	0.2811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6390
predicted_AVG	0.2500
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2927
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.4300
predicted_SLG	0.3275
predicted_SO	0.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0760	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9230	3.6390	3.7571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2100	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9100	0.8809	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2927	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2940	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4300	0.4175	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	0.5560	0.7835	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 25

All-history rows before 20260513: 25

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1975

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.240	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.240	1.000	0.760	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.552	0.750
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.640	0.000	2.360	3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.457	0.250
predicted_R	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.404	0.750
predicted_SO	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.040	0.000	-0.040	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.240	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.240	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	1.040	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.002
predicted_AB	3.096	-0.144
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.033
predicted_H	0.444	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.275	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.225	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.181	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.0833	0.3125	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1429	0.3143	0.3214	0.1429	0.0357	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	25	-	81.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	26.000	0.1975	0.2935	0.3457	0.1975	0.0247	0.0988	0.0988	0.3210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	2.9760
predicted_AVG	0.1558
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	0.4640
predicted_HBP	0.2750
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.1910
predicted_SLG	0.2623
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0570	0.1038	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0360	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2400	2.9760	3.0958	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1558	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.3800	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4640	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2750	0.2750	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2400	0.2120	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1910	0.1815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2623	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0400	0.7020	0.8554	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kumar Rocker (677958) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.857	3.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.571	3.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	5.143	4.000	1.857	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.486	3.200	-0.286	1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.857	3.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	22.100	13.000	25.000	10.000	19.000	2.000	5.2388	1.5672	0.5821	1.1194	0.4478	0.8508	0.0896
last_10	0.35	7	32.100	18.000	36.000	13.000	27.000	4.000	5.0103	1.5155	0.5567	1.1134	0.4021	0.8350	0.1237
season	0.20	7	32.100	18.000	36.000	13.000	27.000	4.000	5.0103	1.5155	0.5567	1.1134	0.4021	0.8350	0.1237

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8670
predicted_ER	2.3970
predicted_ERA	4.7754
predicted_H	4.7140
predicted_HR	0.5010
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.0370
predicted_WHIP	1.4565

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8670	1.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.3970	2.7142	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7754	4.7754	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.7140	5.9166	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5010	0.7635	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.0370	3.4915	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4565	1.4565	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.01
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677958
playerID	677958
playerName	Kumar Rocker
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.206	1.000	-0.006	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.5714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2647	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.6177	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8308	0.4154	0.0923	0.2308	0.1846	0.7846	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	2.3342
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1760
predicted_WHIP	0.8491

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3870	0.1637	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.3342	2.3342	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8510	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1760	1.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8491	0.8491	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.83
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	1.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	0.056	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	0.438	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_ER	0.5530
predicted_ERA	3.2701
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.1220
predicted_WHIP	1.1149

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5040	0.7969	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5530	0.8170	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2701	3.2701	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1940	1.6700	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1220	1.0499	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1149	1.1149	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	2.000	-0.889	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.772	1.000	0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.3200	0.4800	1.3200	0.3600
season	0.20	18	16.000	8.000	16.000	7.000	18.000	3.000	4.5000	1.4375	0.5000	1.0000	0.4375	1.1250	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_ER	0.4860
predicted_ERA	4.8818
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9210
predicted_WHIP	1.5126

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3760	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4860	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8818	4.8818	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9800	0.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9690	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5126	1.5126	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.583	3.000	-0.583	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	3.000	-0.250	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.708	0.000	-0.508	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.7500
season	0.20	11	9.200	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.8276	0.4138	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	3.0356
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6870
predicted_WHIP	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2750	0.0948	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0356	3.0356	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5990	0.2066	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6870	1.5472	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1520	1.1520	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260513_CHC@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.512854, "home_win_probability": 0.512854, "away_win_probability": 0.48714599999999997, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 ATL", "confidence": 0.512854, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 4 - 5 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 3 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 4 - 5 ATL	ATL	0.513	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 3 - 6 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	7-3	0.700	4.20	3.40	8	3L	average	strong
Home ATL	7-3	0.700	5.60	3.20	24	3W	hot	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	CHC @ ATL	2 - 5	ATL	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	34	8	3	0	2	3	9
Player finalized ATL	34	9	4	0	5	2	8
Player model fractional CHC	32.64	6.00	4.41	0.74	3.53	4.56	7.69
Player model fractional ATL	32.89	7.62	3.99	1.14	4.29	3.29	7.88
Simulation box CHC	32	6	3	0	3	5	7
Simulation box ATL	31	7	6	2	6	2	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Shota Imanaga	3.20	1	6	2	2	2.91	1.10	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	2.10	3	2	3	0	4.13	1.30	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Hoby Milner	1.10	1	0	1	0	3.55	1.29	-
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1	0	1	0	0	3.39	1.19	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	1	2	0	2	0	4.23	1.25	True
Home ATL	Starter	JR Ritchie	3.20	3	4	5	2	3.99	1.39	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Bummer	1.20	0	1	0	1	4.91	1.47	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	1.10	0	1	1	2	2.87	1.13	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	0	0	0	0	2.57	0.86	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1	0	0	0	0	2.55	1.09	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Tyler Kinley	0.10	0	1	0	0	5.52	1.57	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2418

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.138	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.138	3.000	0.862	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.258	0.500
predicted_BB	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.759	0.000	1.241	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.173	0.600	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.296	0.600
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.621	1.000	-0.621	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.198	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.000	0.038	0.500
predicted_SO	0.655	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.655	1.000	-0.655	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.138	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.320	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.173	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.198	-
predicted_SO	0.655	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.356	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.011
predicted_H	0.353	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.079	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.173	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.824	0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.105 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.0541	0.1429	0.1351	0.0541	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	29	-	91.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	18.000	13.000	9.000	19.000	0.2418	0.3039	0.4615	0.2418	0.0659	0.1978	0.0989	0.2088

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5310
predicted_AVG	0.1075
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	0.3790
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_OBP	0.1733
predicted_R	0.2330
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.1975
predicted_SO	0.9600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0500	0.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1380	3.5310	3.3557	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1075	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.2900	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3200	0.3790	0.3527	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0870	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1730	0.1733	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.2330	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4550	0.4215	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1980	0.1975	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6550	0.9600	0.8240	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2708

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	3.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.731	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.731	1.000	1.269	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.214	-
predicted_SO	0.731	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.594	-0.098
predicted_AVG	0.171	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.056
predicted_H	0.582	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.219	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.214	0.000
predicted_SO	0.757	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.0625	0.1667	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.1944	0.1944	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	26.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	12.000	19.000	0.2708	0.3578	0.3438	0.2708	0.0104	0.0938	0.1250	0.1979

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.1706
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2512
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.2260
predicted_SLG	0.2145
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0590	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.5160	3.5936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1706	0.1708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3610	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6000	0.5824	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2512	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3310	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2260	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2140	0.2145	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7310	0.7780	0.7573	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2297

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	2.000	-1.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	-0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.650	2.000	1.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.500	0.152	0.000
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	0.000	1.050	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.650	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.018
predicted_3B	0.032	0.007
predicted_AB	3.444	-0.256
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.797	0.147
predicted_H	0.919	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.354	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.705	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	-0.184

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.2000	0.3333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	0.3548	0.5116	0.6129	0.3548	0.0323	0.3226	0.3548	0.2258
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	26.000	38.000	0.2297	0.3483	0.3581	0.2297	0.0203	0.1487	0.1757	0.2568

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.2835
predicted_BB	0.9000
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.4302
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.7090
predicted_SLG	0.4301
predicted_SO	0.6380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2310	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0370	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.2650	3.4438	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6500	0.9000	0.7973	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9260	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0580	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4302	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.3040	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7090	0.7053	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4301	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	0.6380	0.7662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2434

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.707	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.707	3.000	0.293	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	0.000	-0.902	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	2.000	-1.024	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.707	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.585	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.038
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.549	-0.158
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	0.027
predicted_H	0.732	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4412	0.2353	0.0294	0.1177	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	41	-	152.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	12.000	42.000	0.2434	0.3114	0.3816	0.2434	0.0263	0.1118	0.0790	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.4370
predicted_AVG	0.2198
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2990
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3511
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1860	0.1595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0400	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7070	3.4370	3.5489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2198	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.3390	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7550	0.7322	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5850	0.3620	0.4544	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4140	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3511	0.3511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	0.7050	0.8372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	3.000	-0.725	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.105	0.333
predicted_BB	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.250	0.135	0.250
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.000	-0.130	0.333
predicted_SO	1.400	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	2.000	-1.400	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.032	0.006
predicted_AB	3.554	-0.171
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.756	0.006
predicted_H	0.571	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.832	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.496	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.0625	0.2500	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	0.2353	0.3953	0.5000	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.2647	0.4706
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	32.000	30.000	56.000	0.2282	0.3646	0.4631	0.2282	0.0604	0.1208	0.2013	0.3758

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.4350
predicted_AVG	0.1686
predicted_BB	0.7600
predicted_H	0.5790
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.3212
predicted_R	0.8550
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.3098
predicted_SO	1.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0770	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0360	0.0315	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.4350	3.5539	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1686	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7600	0.7559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.5790	0.5712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1120	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3212	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.8550	0.8324	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3360	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.5630	1.4962	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2298

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.025	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.025	4.000	0.975	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.170	0.150
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	1.000	1.075	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.076	0.150
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.325	1.000	0.675	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	1.000	0.052	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	0.000	0.225	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.025	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.978	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.066
predicted_H	0.789	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.152
predicted_RBI	0.282	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	0.189

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.025

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.1795	0.2727	0.3077	0.1795	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.20	40	-	161.000	37.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	16.000	22.000	31.000	0.2298	0.3243	0.3478	0.2298	0.0248	0.0808	0.1366	0.1925

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.2051
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.6580
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.3431
predicted_SO	1.0940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1080	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0250	3.9460	3.9783	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2051	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.4390	0.4844	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8090	0.7890	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.6580	0.5525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2910	0.2824	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3431	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	1.0940	0.9635	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.731	3.000	-0.731
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289
predicted_BB	0.654	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.654	1.000	0.346
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	-1.077
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.269	0.000	-0.269
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.250	-0.152
predicted_R	0.731	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.731	0.000	-0.731
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	0.000	-0.615
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.536	0.000	-0.536
predicted_SO	1.038	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.038	1.000	-0.038

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.731	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.654	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.731	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	1.038	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.636	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.712	0.057
predicted_H	0.728	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.189	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.641	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.578	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.048	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	0.2000	0.3409	0.4286	0.2000	0.0571	0.2000	0.2286	0.2857
season	0.20	26	-	97.000	28.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	17.000	27.000	0.2887	0.4017	0.5361	0.2887	0.0722	0.1650	0.1753	0.2783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.7560
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3515
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.4328
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.1840	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7310	3.5620	3.6357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6540	0.7560	0.7115	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7650	0.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1960	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3515	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7310	0.5720	0.6414	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6070	0.5778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4328	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0380	1.0550	1.0476	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.260	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.100	3.000	-0.100	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.018	0.250
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	0.000	-0.100	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.054	0.150
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.159	0.250
predicted_SO	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.260	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.118	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.022
predicted_H	0.812	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.037	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.383	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.331	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.328	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.260

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.2500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.1951	0.2766	0.2683	0.1951	0.0000	0.0488	0.0976	0.0244
season	0.20	40	-	164.000	44.000	11.000	4.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	15.000	0.2683	0.3457	0.4085	0.2683	0.0244	0.1707	0.1037	0.0915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0200
predicted_AVG	0.1970
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2734
predicted_R	0.3190
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.3028
predicted_SO	0.2960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.3170	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2600	4.0200	4.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1970	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.3880	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7920	0.8116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0350	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2734	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.3190	0.3827	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3240	0.3305	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.2960	0.3282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	1.000	0.175	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.055
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.409	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.162
predicted_H	0.511	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.222	-0.000
predicted_R	0.456	-0.194
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	0.674	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1892	0.1714	0.1429	0.0000	0.0286	0.0571	0.1429
season	0.20	40	-	136.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	22.000	33.000	0.1912	0.3025	0.3529	0.1912	0.0441	0.1691	0.1618	0.2427

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.1601
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.5470
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2217
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.2740
predicted_SLG	0.2430
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.1440	0.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4160	3.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1601	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.2720	0.3876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5470	0.5108	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2217	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.3180	0.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2740	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.5660	0.6737	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Shota Imanaga (684007) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	3.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.875	6.000	-1.875	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.888	6.000	-2.688	-2.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	6.625	10.000	-0.625	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	7.000	22.000	9.000	33.000	3.000	2.0106	0.9894	0.2234	0.7021	0.2872	1.0532	0.0957
last_10	0.35	8	47.100	12.000	31.000	13.000	53.000	4.000	2.2817	0.9296	0.2535	0.6549	0.2747	1.1197	0.0845
season	0.20	8	47.100	12.000	31.000	13.000	53.000	4.000	2.2817	0.9296	0.2535	0.6549	0.2747	1.1197	0.0845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6800
predicted_ER	1.6930
predicted_ERA	2.9067
predicted_H	4.1090
predicted_HR	0.5580
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.3990
predicted_WHIP	1.1043

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6800	1.8440	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.6930	1.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9067	2.9067	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.1090	3.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5580	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.3990	5.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1043	1.1043	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.28
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	69
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	684007
playerID	684007
playerName	Shota Imanaga
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	2.750	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.750	2.000	2.250	1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.200	1.312	1.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429
season	0.20	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7800
predicted_ER	0.9160
predicted_ERA	4.1338
predicted_H	1.8040
predicted_HR	0.2950
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.9290
predicted_WHIP	1.2962

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7800	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.9160	2.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1338	4.1338	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.8040	2.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2950	0.7747	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	2.0000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.9290	1.9773	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2962	1.2962	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	0.200	0.335	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.4545	1.3636	0.2727	0.8182	0.5454	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.5556	0.6667	0.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0364	0.2727	0.7091	0.3273	0.3273	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.4450
predicted_ERA	3.5460
predicted_H	0.9490
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8670
predicted_WHIP	1.2891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5070	0.2057	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4450	0.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5460	3.5460	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9490	0.9793	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8670	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2891	1.2891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.000	0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	1.3500	0.6000	0.1500	0.3000	0.3000	1.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	10.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	2.5312	1.2188	0.2812	0.9375	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	18.000	8.000	19.000	3.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	1.0385	0.4615	1.0961	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	3.3937
predicted_H	0.8800
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0720
predicted_WHIP	1.1872

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3800	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4000	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3937	3.3937	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8800	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0720	1.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1872	1.1872	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.727	0.000	1.273	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.709	1.100	0.291	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	2.000	-1.182	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.2143	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	8.0000	1.6667	0.8889	1.1111	0.5556	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	11	9.200	8.000	10.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	7.4483	1.5517	0.8276	1.0345	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	4.2268
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0570
predicted_WHIP	1.2542

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3840	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4700	1.4724	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2268	4.2268	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8700	1.6103	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1100	0.6931	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0570	0.3645	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2542	1.2542	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: ATL

Sandy León (506702) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 0

All-history rows before 20260513: 0

System season_avg: 0.2441

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.005	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.490	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.801	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.438	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.005	-
predicted_AB	3.490	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.801	-
predicted_HR	0.115	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.438	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.007
predicted_3B	0.007	0.002
predicted_AB	3.560	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.003
predicted_BB	0.307	-0.007
predicted_H	0.830	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.003
predicted_R	0.431	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.005
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3055
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3946
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1800	0.1568	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0050	0.0140	0.0070	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4900	3.7990	3.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2441	0.2324	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2840	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8010	0.9270	0.8297	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1150	0.1210	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.3055	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.4910	0.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4380	0.4720	0.4457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3946	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	0.8550	0.8596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2635

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050
predicted_AB	3.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.264
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	0.000	-0.275
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.975	0.000	-0.975
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.323
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	0.000	-0.450
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	0.000	-0.575
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	-0.399
predicted_SO	0.675	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.675	1.000	0.325

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.675	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.912	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.025
predicted_H	0.945	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.1429	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.3333	0.2308	0.0000	0.2051	0.1282	0.1795
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	39.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	23.000	18.000	11.000	27.000	0.2635	0.3230	0.3986	0.2635	0.0135	0.1554	0.0743	0.1824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.9640
predicted_AVG	0.2412
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2997
predicted_R	0.2930
predicted_RBI	0.6360
predicted_SLG	0.3359
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2060	0.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0410	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	3.9640	3.9124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2412	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.3180	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9560	0.9452	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2997	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.2930	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6360	0.6293	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3359	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6750	0.8300	0.7655	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2959

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.024	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	-1.024	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.250	0.037	0.083
predicted_BB	0.476	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.190	1.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.120	0.250
predicted_R	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.762	0.000	1.238	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.500	0.824	0.833
predicted_SO	0.952	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.952	1.000	0.048	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.024	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.952	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.027
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.886	-0.138
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.561	0.085
predicted_H	0.936	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.223	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.721	-0.136
predicted_RBI	0.555	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	1.097	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.024

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3696	0.5385	0.2564	0.0769	0.1795	0.1538	0.3077
season	0.20	42	-	169.000	50.000	6.000	10.000	32.000	36.000	20.000	40.000	0.2959	0.3802	0.5089	0.2959	0.0592	0.1893	0.1183	0.2367

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.2483
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.2250
predicted_OBP	0.3604
predicted_R	0.6280
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.4773
predicted_SO	1.1970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1880	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0240	3.7910	3.8858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.6200	0.5614	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9410	0.9365	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2250	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3604	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.6280	0.7212	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5580	0.5547	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4773	0.4772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9520	1.1970	1.0973	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3006

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	3.000	0.119	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.000	-0.051	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	-0.104	0.000
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.000	-0.247	0.250
predicted_SO	0.548	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.548	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.905	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	0.041
predicted_H	0.732	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.578	-0.136
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.288	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.2308	0.3111	0.3590	0.2308	0.0256	0.1282	0.1282	0.1795
season	0.20	42	-	163.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	14.000	23.000	0.3006	0.3536	0.4969	0.3006	0.0491	0.1534	0.0859	0.1411

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.1942
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.2677
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.2877
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1200	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.9210	3.9046	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1942	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4020	0.3737	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7610	0.7319	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0810	0.0765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2677	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.4830	0.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4750	0.4565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2877	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5480	0.7340	0.6577	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.195	0.195
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.831	-0.169
predicted_H	0.640	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.117	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.204	0.204

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	OBP	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3333
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3333
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.2154
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.2989
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.4060
predicted_SLG	0.3482
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1550	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7050	3.1954	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2154	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3900	0.8309	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7980	0.6404	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1040	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2989	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4230	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4060	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3482	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7360	0.2040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	673490
playerID	673490
playerName	Ha-Seong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2992

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	4.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.250	-0.049	0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.152	1.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	-0.073	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.250	0.028	0.250
predicted_SO	0.758	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	1.000	1.242	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.925	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.128	-0.024
predicted_H	1.075	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.406	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3810	0.3333	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.2821	0.2564	0.0000	0.0256	0.0256	0.2564
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	38.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	14.000	5.000	25.000	0.2992	0.3233	0.4724	0.2992	0.0472	0.1496	0.0394	0.1968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.2894
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3099
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3702
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1540	0.1399	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.9830	3.9253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1100	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1530	1.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0523	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3099	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3930	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2870	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3702	0.3701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.9330	0.8581	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	2.000	0.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	1.000	0.854	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	-0.043	-0.250
predicted_R	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.537	1.000	0.463	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.610	1.000	2.390	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	1.250	0.618	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.146	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.146	1.000	-1.146	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.537	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	1.146	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.815	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.062
predicted_H	1.035	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.605	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	1.178	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.3158	0.3415	0.5789	0.3158	0.0790	0.2105	0.0526	0.3684
season	0.20	41	-	157.000	35.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	22.000	14.000	47.000	0.2229	0.2931	0.3822	0.2229	0.0382	0.1592	0.0892	0.2994

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2894
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.3312
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.6430
predicted_SLG	0.4980
predicted_SO	1.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1620	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8050	3.8149	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.2360	0.2793	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.1010	1.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2090	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5370	0.6030	0.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6430	0.6047	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4980	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1460	1.2000	1.1777	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2945

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.881	4.000	-0.881	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.372	0.417
predicted_BB	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	0.376	0.500
predicted_R	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.881	1.000	0.119	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.523	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.644	0.250	0.356	0.750
predicted_SO	1.048	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.048	0.000	-0.048	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.881	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.524	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.523	-
predicted_SO	1.048	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.123
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.887	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.078
predicted_H	0.929	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.291	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.688	-0.169
predicted_RBI	0.763	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.000
predicted_SO	1.102	0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.881

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	9.000	6.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.7368	0.2895	0.1316	0.2368	0.1579	0.2632
season	0.20	42	-	163.000	48.000	15.000	14.000	37.000	36.000	22.000	44.000	0.2945	0.3743	0.6442	0.2945	0.0859	0.2270	0.1350	0.2699

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8910
predicted_AVG	0.2494
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.3156
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.7990
predicted_SLG	0.5235
predicted_SO	1.1390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3570	0.1490	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8810	3.8910	3.8869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2494	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5240	0.3920	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9700	0.9292	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3050	0.2907	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3156	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.5710	0.6878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7990	0.7627	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5230	0.5235	0.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0480	1.1390	1.1018	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

José Azocar (640492) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.667	0.667
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.801	0.301
predicted_AVG	0.229	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	0.066
predicted_H	0.498	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.114	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.159	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.6860
predicted_AVG	0.2288
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.2864
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.3699
predicted_SO	0.8930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1640	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.6860	2.8011	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2288	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.8430	0.4976	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.1100	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2864	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4470	0.1135	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.4290	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3699	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.8930	1.1594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	640492
playerID	640492
playerName	José Azocar
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

JR Ritchie (702275) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 3

All-history rows before 20260513: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	4.000	6.000	-2.000	-4.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	3.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.667	4.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.700	5.000	-2.500	-1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	2.000	-0.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	17.100	7.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	4.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	0.8077	0.6923	0.7500	0.2308
last_10	0.35	3	17.100	7.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	4.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	0.8077	0.6923	0.7500	0.2308
season	0.20	3	17.100	7.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	4.000	3.6346	1.5000	0.4038	0.8077	0.6923	0.7500	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1950
predicted_ER	1.9580
predicted_ERA	3.9896
predicted_H	3.9290
predicted_HR	0.7390
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.3866

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1950	2.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9580	2.5979	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9896	3.9896	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.9290	4.5867	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7390	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.8880	3.9568	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3866	1.3866	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	6
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	47
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702275
playerID	702275
playerName	JR Ritchie
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Aaron Bummer (607481) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.882	0.000	-0.882	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	0.600	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.3077	2.0769	0.9231	1.6154	0.4615	0.9231	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.3750
season	0.20	17	13.000	7.000	15.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	4.8462	1.5385	0.5385	1.1539	0.3846	0.8461	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.7510
predicted_ERA	4.9117
predicted_H	1.5070
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2670
predicted_WHIP	1.4716

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5190	0.8213	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7510	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9117	4.9117	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5070	0.5599	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3050	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2670	1.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4716	1.4716	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.85
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	607481
playerID	607481
playerName	Aaron Bummer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.091	0.000	1.909	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.018	1.000	0.082	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.364	1.000	-0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.8000	0.6000	0.2000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	1.000	15.000	0.6562	0.5625	0.0938	1.4062
season	0.20	11	11.200	6.000	1.000	15.000	0.6000	0.5143	0.0857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_ER	0.3920
predicted_ERA	2.8704
predicted_H	1.0090
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3750
predicted_WHIP	1.1256

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3730	1.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3920	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8704	2.8704	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0090	1.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3750	1.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1256	1.1256	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.350	0.000	-0.350
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.925	1.000	0.075
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	0.000	-1.150

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	14.000	0.8438	0.2812	0.0938	0.1875	0.0938	1.3125
season	0.20	20	19.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	23.000	0.9153	0.4576	0.1017	0.3559	0.1017	1.1695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	2.5681
predicted_H	0.6260
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0790
predicted_WHIP	0.8627

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2370	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2850	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5681	2.5681	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6260	0.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0790	0.4456	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8627	0.8627	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.92
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_CHC@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	1.100	0.041	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5625	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.0000	0.7000	0.0000	0.5000	0.2000	0.8000
season	0.20	17	17.000	1.000	12.000	3.000	16.000	0.5294	0.8824	0.0588	0.7059	0.1765	0.9412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.5500
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8970
predicted_WHIP	1.0929

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3030	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1126	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5500	2.5500	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7900	0.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8970	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0929	1.0929	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	2.000	-0.368	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	1.000	-0.763	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.3846	2.3077	1.1539	1.6154	0.6923	1.3846	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.0714	0.7500	1.3929	0.3214
season	0.20	19	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	1.0961	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	5.5177
predicted_H	0.6490
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6720
predicted_WHIP	1.5727

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3040	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5177	5.5177	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6490	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6720	0.8688	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5727	1.5727	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260513_COL@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.622845, "home_win_probability": 0.622845, "away_win_probability": 0.377155, "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 6 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 6 PIT", "confidence": 0.622845, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "COL 2 - 6 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 3 - 5 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	COL 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	0.623	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	COL 3 - 5 PIT	PIT	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away COL	2-8	0.200	3.90	6.90	-30	3L	average	weak
Home PIT	7-3	0.700	5.60	3.50	21	1W	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	COL @ PIT	1 - 3	PIT	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target COL	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized COL	34	9	2	0	1	1	9
Player finalized PIT	35	9	5	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional COL	32.40	7.68	3.54	0.86	3.63	2.79	8.76
Player model fractional PIT	34.57	8.44	4.99	1.15	4.42	4.33	8.54
Simulation box COL	33	7	3	1	3	1	8
Simulation box PIT	30	7	5	0	5	3	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away COL	Starter	Jose Quintana	4.10	2	3	4	0	4.02	1.29	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1.20	3	1	2	3	5.11	1.53	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1	0	1	0	0	2.86	1.12	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1	0	2	1	0	3.94	1.37	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Brennan Bernardino	0.20	1	2	1	0	5.47	1.37	-
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	0.20	1	1	1	0	4.50	1.59	-
Home PIT	Starter	Mitch Keller	5.20	1	6	4	0	3.87	1.17	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.16	1.01	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	1.10	1	1	1	0	2.81	1.14	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	0.20	1	0	2	1	5.90	1.66	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Evan Sisk	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.20	1.16	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: COL

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	3.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	-0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	0.632	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.050
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.880	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.142	-0.016
predicted_H	0.907	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.225	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.091
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.1351	0.0270	0.1622
season	0.20	19	-	73.000	18.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2466	0.3293	0.3425	0.2466	0.0274	0.1233	0.0411	0.1644

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9120
predicted_AVG	0.2422
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HBP	0.2250
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3053
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.4079
predicted_SO	0.7380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1460	0.1029	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.9120	3.8796	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2422	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1290	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9480	0.9072	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2250	0.2250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3053	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.5370	0.4587	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4590	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4079	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6320	0.7380	0.6889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.079	0.250
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.100	0.500
predicted_SO	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	1.000	-0.711	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.059
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.904	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.016
predicted_H	1.029	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.453	0.085
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2683	0.3182	0.4146	0.2683	0.0488	0.1220	0.0488	0.1951
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	13.000	27.000	0.2621	0.3292	0.4000	0.2621	0.0276	0.1379	0.0897	0.1862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9670
predicted_AVG	0.2755
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3458
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4224
predicted_SO	0.7940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0570	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.9670	3.9041	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2755	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3140	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0930	1.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1710	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3458	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.5140	0.4532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4630	0.4368	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4224	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.7940	0.7594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3130

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.333	0.187	0.167
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.333	0.140	0.167
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.678	0.333	-0.178	0.167
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.412	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.034	0.001
predicted_AB	3.849	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.007
predicted_H	0.869	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.159	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.539	-0.128
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	1.316	0.149

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.6000	0.2750	0.0750	0.1250	0.0750	0.3750
season	0.20	30	-	115.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	20.000	8.000	35.000	0.3130	0.3600	0.6783	0.3130	0.0956	0.1739	0.0696	0.3044

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.8620
predicted_AVG	0.2326
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.4124
predicted_SO	1.4300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1280	0.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0350	0.0341	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8620	3.8495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2326	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2550	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8980	0.8686	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4420	0.5391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3370	0.3253	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4120	0.4124	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.4300	1.3164	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.056	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.056	3.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.972	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	2.000	1.028	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.056	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.112
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.321	0.265
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	-0.100
predicted_H	0.769	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.378	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.084
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	1.211	0.239

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	17.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.1714	0.0857	0.4857
season	0.20	36	-	110.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	20.000	35.000	0.2182	0.3333	0.3000	0.2182	0.0091	0.0818	0.1818	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5200
predicted_AVG	0.2437
predicted_BB	0.3820
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3159
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.5870
predicted_SLG	0.3705
predicted_SO	1.3900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.3630	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0560	3.5200	3.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2437	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.3820	0.4565	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8580	0.7689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3159	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3490	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5870	0.5240	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3705	0.3703	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	1.3900	1.2110	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	3.000	0.270	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.054	0.250
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.730	0.000	0.270	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.000	0.007	0.250
predicted_R	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_SO	1.108	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.108	1.000	-1.108	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.243	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	1.108	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.089
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.603	-0.127
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.010
predicted_H	0.648	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.188	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	-0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.1935	0.2778	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.1290	0.1290	0.2903
season	0.20	37	-	138.000	27.000	8.000	1.000	10.000	9.000	7.000	41.000	0.1957	0.2432	0.2754	0.1956	0.0073	0.0725	0.0507	0.2971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5100
predicted_AVG	0.1924
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2351
predicted_R	0.1480
predicted_RBI	0.3210
predicted_SLG	0.2310
predicted_SO	1.0410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.0620	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.5100	3.6027	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1924	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.2060	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6750	0.6476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2351	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2430	0.1480	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3210	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2310	0.2310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1080	1.0410	1.0692	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.3250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3248

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	2.000	0.455	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.325	0.500	-0.075	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.152	1.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	0.939	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.451	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.667	-0.142	-0.417
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	0.844	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	1.182	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.362	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.451	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.334	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.519	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.362	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.093
predicted_H	1.177	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.451	0.000
predicted_R	0.442	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.279	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	0.891	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.4375	0.5500	0.5625	0.4375	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.4848	0.3636	0.0000	0.0606	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.20	32	-	117.000	38.000	10.000	2.000	16.000	12.000	10.000	27.000	0.3248	0.3828	0.4615	0.3248	0.0171	0.1368	0.0855	0.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.3616
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_H	1.2350
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.4514
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.2930
predicted_SLG	0.4922
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.3510	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.4160	3.5193	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3620	0.3616	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.4760	0.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2350	1.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4510	0.4514	0.4512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4920	0.4417	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2930	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4922	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	0.9270	0.8913	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.325

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Brett Sullivan (664954) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2203

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.113	0.333
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.063	0.333
predicted_R	0.118	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	0.362	0.667
predicted_SO	0.882	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	2.000	0.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.118	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.530	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	0.069
predicted_H	0.561	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.238	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.0588	0.2000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2778	0.1944	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	13.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	0.2203	0.2698	0.3051	0.2203	0.1017	0.0508	0.2542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5860
predicted_AVG	0.1726
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	0.6190
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2613
predicted_R	0.2130
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2524
predicted_SO	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.1670	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.5860	3.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1726	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.3110	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6190	0.5611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2613	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1180	0.2130	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2640	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2524	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	1.0460	0.9662	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664954
playerID	664954
playerName	Brett Sullivan
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2755

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	0.000	-0.964	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.000	-0.116	0.250
predicted_R	0.536	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.107	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	1.000	0.893	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.666	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	0.011
predicted_H	0.852	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	0.2821	0.3778	0.4359	0.2821	0.0256	0.0769	0.1538	0.3590
season	0.20	28	-	98.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	31.000	0.2755	0.3661	0.3878	0.2755	0.0204	0.1225	0.1429	0.3163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.2321
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3280
predicted_R	0.4740
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.3240
predicted_SO	1.2410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0810	0.0924	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0350	0.0354	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.7090	3.6655	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2321	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5190	0.5107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8610	0.8518	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.4740	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2480	0.2445	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	1.2410	1.1821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	2.962	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.962	2.000	1.038	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	0.000	0.192	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.595	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.000	-0.231	0.250
predicted_SO	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	2.962	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.595	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.128	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.243	0.012
predicted_H	0.873	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.213	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.106
predicted_RBI	0.835	0.095
predicted_SLG	0.595	0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3529	0.7500	0.3125	0.1250	0.4375	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3939	0.6667	0.3333	0.0667	0.3000	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	26	-	77.000	21.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.4805	0.2727	0.0260	0.1688	0.0779	0.2078

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.2710
predicted_AVG	0.2940
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.3481
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.9160
predicted_SLG	0.5953
predicted_SO	0.7340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2020	0.2154	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0440	0.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9620	3.2710	3.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2540	0.2434	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9620	0.8734	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2320	0.2126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3481	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.5050	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.9160	0.8348	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5950	0.5953	0.5952	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.7340	0.6791	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Jose Quintana (500779) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.167	2.000	-2.167	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.167	2.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.500	5.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.767	5.200	-0.667	-1.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	2.333	2.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	11.000	23.000	9.000	12.000	5.000	3.8571	1.2468	0.4286	0.8961	0.3507	0.4675	0.1948
last_10	0.35	6	30.000	13.000	27.000	13.000	14.000	5.000	3.9000	1.3333	0.4333	0.9000	0.4333	0.4667	0.1667
season	0.20	6	30.000	13.000	27.000	13.000	14.000	5.000	3.9000	1.3333	0.4333	0.9000	0.4333	0.4667	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7380
predicted_ER	2.0970
predicted_ERA	4.0173
predicted_H	4.3010
predicted_HR	0.7650
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.2440
predicted_WHIP	1.2858

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7380	0.7960	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0970	2.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0173	4.0173	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3010	4.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7650	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.2440	3.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2858	1.2858	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	69

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.90
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	43
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	500779
playerID	500779
playerName	Jose Quintana
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	2.333	2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.800	1.000	2.200	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.467	3.000	0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.027	0.200	0.173	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	0.067	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	4.7647	1.5882	0.5294	0.8823	0.7059	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	10.000	14.000	8.000	10.000	1.000	8.7097	2.1290	0.9677	1.3548	0.7742	0.9677	0.0968
season	0.20	15	16.100	12.000	22.000	10.000	14.000	2.000	6.6122	1.9592	0.7347	1.3469	0.6122	0.8571	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_ER	0.7980
predicted_ERA	5.1132
predicted_H	1.4300
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3610
predicted_WHIP	1.5285

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.7170	2.1008	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.7980	2.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1132	5.1132	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4300	1.7755	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3610	1.1422	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5285	1.5285	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	38

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.936	2.000	-0.936	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	21.200	3.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	1.2462	0.8308	0.1385	0.5538	0.2769	0.8769
season	0.20	11	24.100	3.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	1.1096	0.8219	0.1233	0.5343	0.2877	0.9041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.4840
predicted_ERA	2.8578
predicted_H	1.1550
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.1153

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4840	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8578	2.8578	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1550	0.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2770	1.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1153	1.1153	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.375	1.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.562	1.000	0.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.6667	2.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5000	0.4167	1.0833	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	16	19.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	4.6552	1.6034	0.5172	1.1379	0.4655	1.2931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_ER	0.5010
predicted_ERA	3.9379
predicted_H	1.0590
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.5020
predicted_WHIP	1.3738

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5140	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5010	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9379	3.9379	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0590	1.0243	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1460	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5020	1.7952	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3738	1.3738	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Brennan Bernardino (657514) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	3.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	-0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	1.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	11.2500	1.7500	1.2500	1.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.1538	0.5769	1.0385	0.1154	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2667	0.4000	1.0000	0.2667	0.8667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_ER	0.4320
predicted_ERA	5.4722
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6480
predicted_WHIP	1.3657

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2240	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4320	0.7811	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4722	5.4722	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7460	0.9021	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6480	1.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3657	1.3657	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	657514
playerID	657514
playerName	Brennan Bernardino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.576	0.100	-0.376	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	9.000	1.000	5.8696	2.4783	0.6522	1.5652	0.9130	1.1739	0.1304
season	0.20	17	14.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	1.0714	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	4.5003
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6770
predicted_WHIP	1.5872

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3280	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3330	0.7475	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5003	4.5003	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7300	0.8978	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6770	0.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5872	1.5872	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	2
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PIT

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2679

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	2.000	-0.205	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.430	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.308	4.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.750	-0.268	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	3.000	-1.154	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.750	-0.332	-0.750
predicted_R	0.846	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.846	2.000	-0.846	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	1.250	-0.494	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.564	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.564	1.000	0.436	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.430	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	1.400	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.846	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	1.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.264	0.059
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.307	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.398	0.039
predicted_H	1.363	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.173	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.000
predicted_R	1.014	0.168
predicted_RBI	0.370	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.510	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.435	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.430

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.3810	0.4800	0.6190	0.3810	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	14.000	0.2955	0.3542	0.4318	0.2954	0.0227	0.0682	0.0682	0.3182
season	0.20	39	-	168.000	45.000	8.000	10.000	29.000	33.000	14.000	61.000	0.2679	0.3315	0.4940	0.2679	0.0595	0.1726	0.0833	0.3631

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2220
predicted_AVG	0.3166
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_H	1.3370
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.3921
predicted_R	1.1300
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.5097
predicted_SO	1.3460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3050	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4300	4.2220	4.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3166	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.4250	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4000	1.3370	1.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1690	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3921	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8460	1.1300	1.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3630	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5097	0.5098	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5640	1.3460	1.4352	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.886	3.000	-0.886	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.265	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	1.000	-1.029	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.409	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	-0.119	-0.250
predicted_R	0.686	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.671	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.566	0.333	-0.566	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.629	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.409	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.671	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.076	0.047
predicted_AB	3.915	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.641	0.012
predicted_H	1.204	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.290	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.409	-0.000
predicted_R	0.773	0.087
predicted_RBI	0.942	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.671	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3810	0.4400	0.8095	0.3810	0.0952	0.3333	0.1429	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	9.000	7.000	0.3243	0.4468	0.7027	0.3243	0.0811	0.2432	0.2432	0.1892
season	0.20	35	-	136.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	28.000	24.000	22.000	35.000	0.2647	0.3688	0.5662	0.2647	0.0735	0.2059	0.1618	0.2574

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2380
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	3.9360
predicted_AVG	0.3231
predicted_BB	0.6490
predicted_H	1.2720
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.4088
predicted_R	0.8350
predicted_RBI	0.9930
predicted_SLG	0.6715
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2380	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1100	0.0762	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.9360	3.9152	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3231	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6290	0.6490	0.6407	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2720	1.2045	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3050	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4090	0.4088	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.8350	0.7729	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	0.9930	0.9417	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6710	0.6715	0.6713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8850	0.9329	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1894

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.311	0.500
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.758	0.000	1.242	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.000	0.228	0.500
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	0.000	1.576	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.439	0.750
predicted_SO	1.121	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	1.000	0.879	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.920	-0.080
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	0.130
predicted_H	0.846	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.168	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	1.048	-0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=29.0, weight=0.197, BvP AVG=0.414)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3750	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2564	0.3830	0.4615	0.2564	0.0513	0.1538	0.1795	0.2564
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	37.000	0.1894	0.2721	0.3106	0.1894	0.0303	0.1061	0.0985	0.2803

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8620
predicted_AVG	0.2260
predicted_BB	0.6180
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3484
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.4100
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1840	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8620	3.9202	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2260	0.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.6180	0.5236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8730	0.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1740	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3484	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4680	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3980	0.3862	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4100	0.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	0.9950	1.0481	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2828

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	-0.816	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	0.000	-1.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	-0.111	0.250
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.868	2.000	0.132	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	0.868	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.994	0.178
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.428	-0.046
predicted_H	0.798	0.108
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000
predicted_SO	0.936	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909	0.0909	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	0.1951	0.2667	0.2195	0.1951	0.0000	0.1463	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	41.000	5.000	5.000	26.000	22.000	18.000	33.000	0.2828	0.3614	0.4207	0.2828	0.0345	0.1793	0.1241	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1200
predicted_AVG	0.2124
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2823
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.2660
predicted_SO	0.9850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0840	0.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	4.1200	3.9939	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2124	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3960	0.4283	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8750	0.7983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0440	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2823	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.5090	0.5380	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5250	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2660	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8680	0.9850	0.9365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-1B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2535

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.550	3.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.333	0.080	0.000
predicted_BB	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.500	0.098	0.000
predicted_R	0.675	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	0.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.333	0.265	0.333
predicted_SO	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.850	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.007
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.005
predicted_AB	3.510	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.822	-0.028
predicted_H	0.873	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.396	-0.000
predicted_R	0.555	-0.120
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.865	-0.235

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.238)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	8.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.5294	0.2941	0.0294	0.2059	0.2941	0.2353
season	0.20	40	-	142.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	24.000	27.000	34.000	44.000	0.2535	0.4022	0.4014	0.2535	0.0282	0.1690	0.2394	0.3099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.2573
predicted_BB	0.8030
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3958
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.5360
predicted_SLG	0.3748
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1370	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0410	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5500	3.4830	3.5105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2573	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8500	0.8030	0.8223	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8960	0.8730	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3958	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.4720	0.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5360	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3748	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	0.7010	0.8648	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	-1.778	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.723	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.009
predicted_H	0.776	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.272	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.798	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	9	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2353	0.1765	0.0294	0.0588	0.2059
season	0.20	9	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2353	0.1765	0.0294	0.0588	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6590
predicted_AVG	0.2268
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.2829
predicted_R	0.3310
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3266
predicted_SO	0.8210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1960	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.6590	3.7232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2268	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2410	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8300	0.7761	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0520	0.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2829	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.3310	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3000	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3266	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8210	0.7978	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-1B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3261

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.943	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.943	4.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.500	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.286	2.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.414	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.500	0.116	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	1.000	1.457	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.405	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.750	0.123	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	-0.771	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.943	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.414	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.405	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.917	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	0.121
predicted_H	1.178	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.414	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.405	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	-0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.943

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.4500	0.3500	0.1000	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.3684	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
season	0.20	35	-	138.000	45.000	7.000	19.000	16.000	10.000	27.000	0.3261	0.3841	0.3768	0.3261	0.1377	0.0725	0.1956

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8990
predicted_AVG	0.3185
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_H	1.2420
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.4137
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.4048
predicted_SO	0.6720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2700	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9430	3.8990	3.9175	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3185	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.4950	0.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2420	1.1782	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4140	0.4137	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4250	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4360	0.4125	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4050	0.4048	0.4049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.6720	0.7136	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 34

All-history rows before 20260513: 34

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	0.853	1.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	0.500
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.183	0.500
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.359	0.750
predicted_SO	1.147	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.147	0.000	-1.147	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	1.147	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.824	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.365	0.041
predicted_H	0.828	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.542	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	1.104	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1500	0.2174	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3636	0.5000	0.2895	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.2632
season	0.20	34	-	128.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	16.000	11.000	39.000	0.2500	0.3169	0.3906	0.2500	0.0234	0.1406	0.0859	0.3047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.8680
predicted_AVG	0.2232
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2914
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.5660
predicted_SLG	0.3892
predicted_SO	1.0720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1450	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0420	0.0492	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.8680	3.8244	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2232	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3960	0.3655	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8630	0.8278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2914	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5590	0.5217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5660	0.5423	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3892	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1470	1.0720	1.1038	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 25

All-history rows before 20260513: 25

System season_avg: 0.1570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1566

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	3.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.157	0.000	-0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	1.000	1.280	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.462	0.142
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.513	0.113
predicted_H	0.570	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.208	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.449	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.477	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.5000	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222	0.2778	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.3143	0.1429	0.0571	0.1143	0.1429	0.2000
season	0.20	25	-	83.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	10.000	18.000	0.1566	0.2632	0.2651	0.1566	0.0241	0.0843	0.1205	0.2169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.1774
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2310
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.4890
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.3896
predicted_SO	0.7060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0600	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.5790	3.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1774	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.6060	0.5130	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6350	0.5695	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2310	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4890	0.4488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5330	0.4775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3896	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.7060	0.7123	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.157

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mitch Keller (656605) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.750	2.000	-1.750	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	2.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.375	4.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.875	6.000	-0.675	-0.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	4.375	4.000	1.625	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	13.000	23.000	9.000	24.000	2.000	4.0345	1.1034	0.4483	0.7931	0.3103	0.8276	0.0690
last_10	0.35	8	47.000	15.000	35.000	14.000	35.000	2.000	2.8723	1.0426	0.3191	0.7447	0.2979	0.7447	0.0425
season	0.20	8	47.000	15.000	35.000	14.000	35.000	2.000	2.8723	1.0426	0.3191	0.7447	0.2979	0.7447	0.0425

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9180
predicted_ER	2.4660
predicted_ERA	3.8716
predicted_H	4.8130
predicted_HR	0.4980
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.9390
predicted_WHIP	1.1743

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.9180	0.9350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4660	1.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8716	3.8716	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.8130	4.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4980	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.9390	5.4828	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1743	1.1743	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	6
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	84
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	656605
playerID	656605
playerName	Mitch Keller
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.381	2.000	-0.381	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.000	0.129	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.238	0.000	-0.238	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.8823	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	2.5312	0.7500	0.2812	0.5625	0.1875	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	21	21.100	4.000	8.000	7.000	26.000	1.000	1.6875	0.7031	0.1875	0.3750	0.3281	1.2188	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.4150
predicted_ERA	3.1632
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1550
predicted_WHIP	1.0077

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4150	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1632	3.1632	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8330	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1550	1.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0077	1.0077	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_COL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.819	1.200	0.281	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.438	1.000	-0.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1875	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7742	0.0000	0.4839	0.2903	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	12.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7660	0.5106	1.4681	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	2.8098
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1370
predicted_WHIP	1.1440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4940	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3760	0.7568	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8098	2.8098	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8850	0.9552	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1020	0.6501	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1370	1.0534	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1440	1.1440	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.778	2.000	1.222	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	0.200	-0.711	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	6.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	12.4615	2.7692	1.3846	2.0769	0.6923	0.0000	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.5769	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_ER	0.5260
predicted_ERA	5.8991
predicted_H	0.9520
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5420
predicted_WHIP	1.6575

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3780	0.7512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5260	0.8104	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8991	5.8991	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9520	1.5809	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1620	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5420	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6575	1.6575	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Evan Sisk (681895) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.083	0.000	-1.083	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.075	1.000	-0.875	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.5000	0.6667	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	2.000	10.000	3.000	14.000	1.4211	1.0263	0.1579	0.7895	0.2368	1.1053
season	0.20	12	15.000	3.000	13.000	4.000	18.000	1.8000	1.1333	0.2000	0.8667	0.2667	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_ER	0.3260
predicted_ERA	3.2048
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.1569

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2900	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3260	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2048	3.2048	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7690	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9180	1.5830	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1569	1.1569	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	681895
playerID	681895
playerName	Evan Sisk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260513_DET@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.610851, "home_win_probability": 0.610851, "away_win_probability": 0.38914899999999997, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "confidence": 0.610851, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	DET 2 - 4 NYM	NYM	0.611	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	DET 2 - 4 NYM	NYM	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away DET	3-7	0.300	3.50	4.80	-13	1L	average	average
Home NYM	6-4	0.600	4.30	3.10	12	1W	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	DET @ NYM	2 - 10	NYM	8	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target DET	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized DET	34	9	1	0	2	4	9
Player finalized NYM	33	9	4	0	3	4	8
Player model fractional DET	31.52	6.82	3.49	0.52	2.80	4.24	7.74
Player model fractional NYM	31.56	6.55	5.16	0.60	3.58	5.31	6.22
Simulation box DET	36	9	2	0	2	3	9
Simulation box NYM	30	6	4	1	4	4	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away DET	Starter	Framber Valdez	3.20	3	1	4	4	4.38	1.36	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	1.10	0	1	1	0	4.46	1.47	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.00	1.33	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	1	1	2	1	0	2.84	1.07	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	0.20	0	2	0	0	2.54	1.36	True
Home NYM	Starter	Christian Scott	4.20	1	6	5	1	3.85	1.27	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Austin Warren	1.10	0	3	0	0	3.00	1.31	-
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1.10	0	2	0	1	2.79	1.17	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.81	1.16	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Huascar Brazobán	1	0	0	1	0	4.24	1.27	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	0.20	1	0	2	1	4.19	1.30	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: DET

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2959

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.667	-0.096	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.036	2.000	-0.036	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.667	-0.137	-0.467
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	1.000	0.022	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.410	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.020
predicted_H	0.907	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.112	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.3030	0.3611	0.3333	0.3030	0.0000	0.0606	0.2727
season	0.20	28	-	98.000	29.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	5.000	24.000	0.2959	0.3365	0.3776	0.2959	0.0408	0.0510	0.2449

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3380
predicted_AVG	0.2760
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3420
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.1140
predicted_SLG	0.3539
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1830	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.3380	3.4100	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2760	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2150	0.1990	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9210	0.9072	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3420	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4030	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1140	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3539	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8530	0.8548	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3176

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.610	4.000	0.390	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.250	-0.318	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.610	0.000	-0.610	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.146	1.000	-1.146	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.481	0.000	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.250	-0.416	-0.250
predicted_R	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.584	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.250	-0.486	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.171	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	1.000	-0.171	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.406	-
predicted_BB	0.610	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.481	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.584	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.448	0.131
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.622	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.406	0.000
predicted_BB	0.561	-0.049
predicted_H	1.407	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.481	-0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.584	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.175	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.388 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.5000	0.5714	0.7222	0.5000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	15.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.4167	0.4878	0.5556	0.4167	0.0000	0.0556	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.20	41	-	148.000	47.000	13.000	4.000	20.000	26.000	25.000	48.000	0.3176	0.4162	0.4865	0.3176	0.0270	0.1351	0.1689	0.3243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6310
predicted_AVG	0.4062
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_H	1.4750
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.4807
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.2880
predicted_SLG	0.5839
predicted_SO	1.1770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3170	0.5400	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.6310	3.6223	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4060	0.4062	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6100	0.5270	0.5612	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.4750	1.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0324	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4810	0.4807	0.4808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.4830	0.5453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2880	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5840	0.5839	0.5839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.1770	1.1745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2377

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	3.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.333	-0.238	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.281	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	1.000	0.719	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.906	1.000	-0.906	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	1.000	-0.219	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.500	-0.111	-0.300
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	1.333	-0.467	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	2.000	0.188	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.822	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.013
predicted_H	0.645	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.413	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.3158	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1795	0.2195	0.3846	0.1795	0.0513	0.1795	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	29.000	7.000	7.000	26.000	14.000	9.000	26.000	0.2377	0.3111	0.4672	0.2377	0.0574	0.2131	0.0738	0.2131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8300
predicted_AVG	0.1734
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.6640
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2394
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3746
predicted_SO	1.0450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.1990	0.2075	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.8300	3.8223	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1734	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.3030	0.2936	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6640	0.6452	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1890	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2394	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.3950	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4910	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3746	0.3748	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	1.0450	0.9456	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Zack Short (670097) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 3

All-history rows before 20260513: 3

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	1.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_BB	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	1.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.667	0.500
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.333	1.333
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	0.040
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.787	0.287
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.034	-0.216
predicted_H	0.416	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	3	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333
season	0.20	3	-	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.3840
predicted_AVG	0.1877
predicted_BB	0.5850
predicted_H	0.6350
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.3119
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.3035
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1230	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3840	2.7873	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1877	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	0.5850	1.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.6350	0.4156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0830	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3119	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4670	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.3230	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3035	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8460	0.8372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670097
playerID	670097
playerName	Zack Short
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2090

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.436	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.436	3.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	1.000	-0.410	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	-0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	1.256	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	0.000	0.744	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.436	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.517	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	-0.084
predicted_H	0.598	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.069	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.314	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	16.000	0.1429	0.2439	0.2857	0.1429	0.0286	0.1143	0.1429	0.4571
season	0.20	39	-	134.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	14.000	23.000	49.000	0.2090	0.3228	0.4030	0.2090	0.0448	0.1194	0.1716	0.3657

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.1792
predicted_BB	0.4460
predicted_H	0.6400
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2648
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3198
predicted_SO	1.3550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2730	0.2446	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4360	3.5750	3.5170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1792	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.4460	0.5061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6400	0.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2648	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.3020	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4130	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.3550	1.3137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	2.000	0.824	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.333	0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.400	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.529	0.000	1.471	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.250	0.500
predicted_R	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.000	0.241	0.500
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.400	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.118	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.218	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.196	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000
predicted_BB	0.399	0.046
predicted_H	0.440	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.149	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	0.786	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0769	0.2500	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.0938	0.1944	0.1250	0.0938	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.2188
season	0.20	17	-	54.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.2593	0.1667	0.0185	0.0926	0.1111	0.2407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2160
predicted_AVG	0.1485
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_H	0.4780
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2555
predicted_R	0.1780
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.2183
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0900	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.2160	3.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1485	0.1483	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.4440	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4000	0.4780	0.4397	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2555	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1180	0.1780	0.1486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1730	0.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2180	0.2183	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8060	0.7859	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

System season_avg: 0.1530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1528

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.181	0.083
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.550	1.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.197	0.250	0.303	0.250
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.181	0.250	0.153	0.083
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.042
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.733	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	-0.018
predicted_H	0.814	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.106
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.617	0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2857	0.2381	0.1429	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2895	0.3056	0.2500	0.1389	0.0556	0.1667
season	0.20	20	-	72.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.1528	0.1974	0.1806	0.1528	0.0694	0.0556	0.1389

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8500
predicted_AVG	0.2305
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2642
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.3064
predicted_SO	0.7200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1800	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.8500	3.7326	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2305	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1660	0.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8880	0.8138	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2642	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4990	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4850	0.4451	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7200	0.6167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.153

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 25

All-history rows before 20260513: 25

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2135

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.360	0.000	0.640	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	4.000	0.440	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.037	0.250
predicted_BB	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.360	1.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.760	0.000	0.240	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.200	-0.033	0.050
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.152	0.500
predicted_SO	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.640	1.000	1.360	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.360	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.360	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.640	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.687	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.402	0.042
predicted_H	0.713	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.290	-0.000
predicted_R	0.293	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.669	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.2308	0.3023	0.4103	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051	0.1026	0.1795
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	19.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	8.000	9.000	16.000	0.2135	0.2828	0.3483	0.2135	0.0112	0.1573	0.1011	0.1798

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7900
predicted_AVG	0.2061
predicted_BB	0.4360
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2898
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.3463
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3600	0.3430	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.7900	3.6869	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2061	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3600	0.4360	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7810	0.7133	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2898	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.2710	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5480	0.4996	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3463	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6400	0.6920	0.6687	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3020

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.960	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	3.000	1.179	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.667	-0.102	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	2.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.750	-0.206	-0.550
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.450	1.000	-0.050	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.564	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	1.000	1.436	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.024
predicted_AB	3.742	-0.218
predicted_AVG	0.236	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.666	0.051
predicted_H	0.881	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.027	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	-0.172
predicted_RBI	0.228	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.960

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2353	0.4091	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	0.1944	0.3556	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0833	0.2222	0.1389
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	45.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	26.000	24.000	22.000	0.3020	0.4057	0.4497	0.3020	0.0134	0.1074	0.1611	0.1477

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.2357
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3774
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.2200
predicted_SLG	0.3139
predicted_SO	0.5200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.1850	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0100	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9600	3.5900	3.7424	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2357	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.7010	0.6656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.8460	0.8806	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0250	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3774	0.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.3750	0.4952	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2200	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3139	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.5200	0.5381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Framber Valdez (664285) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	1.000	2.125	3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.750	7.000	0.250	-4.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.750	9.000	-1.750	-5.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.388	3.000	-2.188	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	4.375	3.000	-3.375	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	13.000	26.000	10.000	23.000	5.000	4.4430	1.3671	0.4937	0.9873	0.3797	0.8734	0.1899
last_10	0.35	8	43.100	22.000	46.000	15.000	35.000	5.000	4.5692	1.4077	0.5077	1.0615	0.3462	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	8	43.100	22.000	46.000	15.000	35.000	5.000	4.5692	1.4077	0.5077	1.0615	0.3462	0.8077	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7510
predicted_ER	2.2810
predicted_ERA	4.3753
predicted_H	4.6130
predicted_HR	0.7130
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1910
predicted_WHIP	1.3564

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.7510	2.9036	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2810	2.6495	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3753	4.3753	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.6130	4.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7130	0.3476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.1910	2.5556	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3564	1.3564	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	1
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	4.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	60
Pitching_R	10
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	45
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	664285
playerID	664285
playerName	Framber Valdez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.444	1.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.256	0.100	-0.156	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.889	1.000	-0.889	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.2857	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833
season	0.20	9	12.000	5.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5833	0.4167	1.0833	0.5000	1.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5670
predicted_ER	0.6280
predicted_ERA	4.4619
predicted_H	1.3000
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3690
predicted_WHIP	1.4729

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5670	0.2064	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6280	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4619	4.4619	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3000	1.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.0648	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3690	1.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4729	1.4729	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	0.8571	0.6429	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.0800	0.2400
season	0.20	11	9.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.7500	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_ER	0.5380
predicted_ERA	3.9984
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2130
predicted_WHIP	1.3333

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5140	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5380	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9984	3.9984	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1010	0.3764	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2130	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3333	1.3333	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.100	0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	1.1250	0.8750	0.1250	0.5000	0.3750	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.1739	0.6522	0.1304	0.4565	0.1956	0.7174	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	1.6615	0.8308	0.1846	0.5538	0.2769	0.6923	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	2.8356
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1210
predicted_WHIP	1.0731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4340	0.1836	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4030	0.7474	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8356	2.8356	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9370	0.9733	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0940	0.6167	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1210	1.6281	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0731	1.0731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.932	1.200	-0.732	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	1.316	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5882	0.0000	0.5294	1.0588	0.5294	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	0.7941	1.2353	0.0882	0.6177	0.6177	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	18	19.100	1.000	11.000	14.000	13.000	1.000	0.4655	1.2931	0.0517	0.5690	0.7241	0.6724	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4700
predicted_ER	0.2290
predicted_ERA	2.5370
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6800
predicted_WHIP	1.3565

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4700	0.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2290	0.0942	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5370	2.5370	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6310	0.2594	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0304	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6800	1.4573	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3565	1.3565	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: NYM

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.485	5.000	-1.485	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.400	-0.217	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.333	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.758	2.000	-0.758	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.400	0.214	0.100
predicted_R	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.400	-0.339	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	0.000	0.212	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.076
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.698	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.019
predicted_H	0.966	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.594	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.4167	0.2500	0.0278	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	33	-	115.000	25.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	16.000	11.000	26.000	0.2174	0.2857	0.3391	0.2174	0.0261	0.1043	0.0956	0.2261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7650
predicted_AVG	0.2618
predicted_BB	0.2990
predicted_H	0.9860
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.6590
predicted_RBI	0.6050
predicted_SLG	0.3938
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2860	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.7650	3.6982	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2618	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2990	0.3137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9860	0.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.6590	0.5840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6050	0.5942	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3938	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.8110	0.8011	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2315

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	5.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.400	-0.231	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	-0.833	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.400	-0.276	-0.400
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.567	1.000	-0.567	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.400	-0.417	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.822	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	-0.058
predicted_H	0.876	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.265	-0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.622	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.2439	0.2619	0.5366	0.2439	0.0732	0.2439	0.0244	0.1951
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	25.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	12.000	7.000	27.000	0.2315	0.2759	0.4167	0.2315	0.0463	0.1574	0.0648	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9940
predicted_AVG	0.2399
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2050
predicted_OBP	0.2646
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.4497
predicted_SO	0.7640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2180	0.1957	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.9940	3.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2399	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.1300	0.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9580	0.8759	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2050	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2646	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4480	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6770	0.6215	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4497	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.7640	0.8234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.049	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.049	4.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.027	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	1.000	-0.293	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	1.000	0.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.400	-0.022	-0.150
predicted_R	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	1.000	-0.415	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.415	1.000	-0.415	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.189	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.250	-0.039	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	1.000	0.244	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.049	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.189	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.872	-0.178
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.145
predicted_H	0.587	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.027	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.333	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.305	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.569	-0.188

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.049

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.0588	0.2381	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0750	0.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	41	-	166.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	17.000	17.000	12.000	31.000	0.2229	0.2722	0.2892	0.2229	0.0120	0.1024	0.0723	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7480
predicted_AVG	0.1558
predicted_BB	0.5390
predicted_H	0.5840
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2639
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.1886
predicted_SO	0.4380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0450	0.0766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0490	3.7480	3.8715	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1558	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.5390	0.4380	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.5840	0.5865	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0250	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2639	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.2760	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3020	0.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1890	0.1886	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.4380	0.5685	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.516	5.000	0.484	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.400	0.021	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	2.000	0.194	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.400	-0.036	-0.150
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	0.613	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.330	0.400	-0.080	-0.150
predicted_SO	1.097	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.097	2.000	-1.097	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.516	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	1.097	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.039
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.613	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	0.053
predicted_H	0.802	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.566	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	0.2121	0.3500	0.2727	0.2121	0.0000	0.0303	0.1818	0.2727
season	0.20	31	-	109.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	15.000	8.000	34.000	0.2294	0.2857	0.3303	0.2294	0.0092	0.1101	0.0734	0.3119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2630
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6870
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3077
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.2550
predicted_SLG	0.3342
predicted_SO	0.9630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2630	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0080	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5160	3.6870	3.6126	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.3520	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8660	0.8025	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.6290	0.5659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2550	0.2354	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3342	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0970	0.9630	1.0213	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

A.J. Ewing (805999) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AB	2.500	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.500	-0.500
predicted_BB	3.750	1.000	3.000	Hitting_BB	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.333	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.800	0.800	-0.467	-0.467
predicted_R	2.500	0.000	2.000	Hitting_R	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	1.500	1.500	-1.500	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	1.250	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	3.750	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	2.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.552	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.966	-0.284
predicted_AB	2.800	0.300
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	2.954	-0.796
predicted_H	0.628	0.148
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.000
predicted_R	2.039	-0.461
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.130
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.000
predicted_SO	0.197	0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	1.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	3.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	3.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	2.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	-1.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	-2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-2.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.5000	0.8000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.5000	0.8000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	1.5000
season	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.5000	0.8000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.2640
predicted_AB	3.5420
predicted_AVG	0.2806
predicted_BB	0.9860
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3761
predicted_R	0.8990
predicted_RBI	0.8830
predicted_SLG	0.5525
predicted_SO	0.6830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1440	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	1.2500	0.2640	0.9662	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5420	2.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2806	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	3.7500	0.9860	2.9543	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.9940	0.6280	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0970	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3761	0.3760	model_form_blend
predicted_R	2.5000	0.8990	2.0391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.8830	0.5604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5520	0.5525	0.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6830	0.1966	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	805999
playerID	805999
playerName	A.J. Ewing
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	3.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.667	0.158	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	2.000	0.462	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.214	0.667	0.119	-0.333
predicted_R	0.231	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	1.000	0.083	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.615	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.237	0.160
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.133	0.056
predicted_H	0.609	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.100	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.000
predicted_R	0.297	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.393	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.683	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.3125	0.1875	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1613	0.2121	0.2581	0.1613	0.0968	0.0323	0.1935
season	0.20	13	-	40.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1750	0.2143	0.2500	0.1750	0.1000	0.0250	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2770
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4150
predicted_AVG	0.2043
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.6970
predicted_HBP	0.1000
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2685
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.3283
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2770	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.4150	3.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2043	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1950	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6970	0.6091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1000	0.1000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2685	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.3710	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4520	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3283	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.7590	0.6832	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.889	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.889	3.000	1.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	2.000	1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.056	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.131	0.242
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.121	0.010
predicted_H	0.656	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.122	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.616	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2188	0.2424	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.0938	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.20	18	-	52.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2308	0.2593	0.3269	0.2308	0.0192	0.0961	0.0385	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3740
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.1310
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2512
predicted_R	0.1880
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.3326
predicted_SO	0.7330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1580	0.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8890	3.3740	3.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1310	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7430	0.6563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0710	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2512	0.2511	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0560	0.1880	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3850	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7330	0.6163	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.585	5.000	0.415	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.200	0.276	0.300
predicted_BB	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.805	1.000	1.195	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	0.951	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.200	0.219	0.300
predicted_R	0.317	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.317	0.000	0.683	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	0.000	0.683	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.200	0.944	1.050
predicted_SO	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	1.000	-0.780	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.585	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.268	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.317	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.584	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.085
predicted_H	0.724	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.399	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.222	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.795	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=41.0, weight=0.231, BvP AVG=0.293)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2432	0.3000	0.3514	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.0811	0.2162
season	0.20	41	-	147.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	13.000	11.000	32.000	0.2245	0.2812	0.3061	0.2245	0.0136	0.0884	0.0748	0.2177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5830
predicted_AVG	0.2149
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.7700
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2977
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.2380
predicted_SLG	0.2843
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0800	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5850	3.5830	3.5838	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2149	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2680	0.4130	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7700	0.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2977	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3170	0.4570	0.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2380	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2843	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.8060	0.7952	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 25

All-history rows before 20260513: 25

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.400	0.070	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.140	0.100
predicted_R	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	1.000	-0.440	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	1.000	-0.440	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.400	-0.119	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.680	1.000	-0.680	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.680	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.078	0.038
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.507	-0.093
predicted_H	0.705	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.075	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.313	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2500	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0790	0.1316	0.2368
season	0.20	25	-	95.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	15.000	17.000	0.2632	0.3604	0.4526	0.2632	0.0421	0.1158	0.1579	0.1789

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.1080
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.1928
predicted_BB	0.4340
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2750
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.3230
predicted_SLG	0.3282
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0630	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1080	0.0781	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8000	3.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1928	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4340	0.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7330	0.7053	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.3550	0.3924	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3230	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6800	0.7500	0.7192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Christian Scott (681035) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 3

All-history rows before 20260513: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.333	2.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.433	4.200	0.767	0.000
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.000	6.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	11.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	15.000	1.000	3.2727	1.1818	0.3636	0.5454	0.6364	1.3636	0.0909
last_10	0.35	3	11.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	15.000	1.000	3.2727	1.1818	0.3636	0.5454	0.6364	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	3	11.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	15.000	1.000	3.2727	1.1818	0.3636	0.5454	0.6364	1.3636	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0430
predicted_ER	1.8380
predicted_ERA	3.8539
predicted_H	3.3960
predicted_HR	0.4930
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.7650
predicted_WHIP	1.2673

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0430	1.4025	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8380	1.3234	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8539	3.8539	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.3960	4.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4930	0.1903	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.7650	5.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2673	1.2673	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.27
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681035
playerID	681035
playerName	Christian Scott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Warren (681810) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.200	2.000	-0.100	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.625	3.000	1.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	0.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3636	0.0000	0.6818	0.6818	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	1.1818	0.0909
season	0.20	8	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	1.1818	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_ER	0.4450
predicted_ERA	3.0026
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3430
predicted_WHIP	1.3059

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6000	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4450	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0026	3.0026	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1410	0.4063	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3430	2.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3059	1.3059	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	41
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	25
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	681810
playerID	681810
playerName	Austin Warren
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.818	1.000	0.282	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.118	1.000	0.882	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	0.9643	0.9643	0.1071	0.7500	0.2143	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	17	16.000	2.000	10.000	5.000	19.000	1.000	1.1250	0.9375	0.1250	0.6250	0.3125	1.1875	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	2.7870
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2290
predicted_WHIP	1.1740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3830	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3730	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7870	2.7870	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0300	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2290	1.6979	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1740	1.1740	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_DET@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.333	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	11.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	1.2692	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	21.000	1.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	1.1053	0.2368	1.6579	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.5170
predicted_ERA	3.8110
predicted_H	1.0740
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4160
predicted_WHIP	1.1614

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3450	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5170	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8110	3.8110	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0740	1.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1280	0.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4160	1.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1614	1.1614	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	3.000	-0.471	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.1875	0.9375	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	1.000	4.3548	1.3548	0.4839	0.5806	0.7742	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	17	18.200	5.000	12.000	8.000	14.000	1.000	2.4107	1.0714	0.2679	0.6429	0.4286	0.7500	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_ER	0.4710
predicted_ERA	4.2375
predicted_H	0.7160
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8370
predicted_WHIP	1.2658

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5500	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4710	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2375	4.2375	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7160	0.8843	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8370	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2658	1.2658	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.919	1.000	-0.719	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.9375	0.3750	1.6875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.9375	0.3750	1.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	16	16.100	8.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.4082	1.1633	0.4898	0.7959	0.3674	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_ER	0.3720
predicted_ERA	4.1907
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8980
predicted_WHIP	1.3045

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3010	0.7247	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3720	0.7526	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1907	4.1907	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7400	1.5037	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8980	0.3537	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3045	1.3045	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260513_KC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.53316, "home_win_probability": 0.53316, "away_win_probability": 0.46684000000000003, "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CHW", "confidence": 0.53316, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 4 - 5 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 6 - 4 CHW", "winner": "KC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": true, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 4 - 5 CHW	CHW	0.533	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 6 - 4 CHW	KC	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	6-4	0.600	4.10	3.50	6	2L	average	average
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	4.80	3.70	11	3W	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	KC @ CHW	5 - 6	CHW	1	close
2026-04-12	CHW @ KC	6 - 5	CHW	1	close
2026-04-11	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close
2026-04-10	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close
2026-04-09	CHW @ KC	2 - 0	CHW	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	31	10	2	0	3	1	9
Player finalized CHW	33	9	6	0	2	3	10
Player model fractional KC	32.28	8.12	3.62	1.04	3.92	3.34	6.92
Player model fractional CHW	31.26	7.36	4.56	1.23	4.22	3.76	8.56
Simulation box KC	38	11	6	0	6	4	6
Simulation box CHW	34	7	4	0	4	5	3

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Seth Lugo	3.10	1	2	3	3	4.01	1.42	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	John Schreiber	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.34	1.30	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1.10	0	0	0	1	3.32	1.32	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Matt Strahm	1.10	3	0	4	0	4.00	1.22	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	1	0	1	0	1	4.13	1.36	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	0.10	0	0	0	0	3.39	1.14	True
Home CHW	Starter	Noah Schultz	4.20	2	4	4	3	4.44	1.32	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	1.20	2	0	2	1	4.50	1.35	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	1.10	2	1	5	0	4.67	1.40	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1	0	0	0	0	2.97	1.42	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	0.10	0	1	0	0	3.40	1.25	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2839

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	3.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	2.692	3.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.120	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	5.000	1.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.200	0.316	0.400
predicted_BB	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.360	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	1.000	1.872	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.200	0.253	0.400
predicted_R	0.513	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	1.000	1.564	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.200	0.768	1.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.120	-
predicted_AVG	0.330	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	1.360	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.377	0.069
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	4.012	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.015
predicted_H	1.323	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.641	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000
predicted_SO	0.515	-0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	3.000	3.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.120

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.5500	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.3077	0.3636	0.4103	0.3077	0.0000	0.1538	0.1026	0.0769
season	0.20	39	-	155.000	44.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	17.000	20.000	16.000	26.000	0.2839	0.3468	0.4323	0.2839	0.0193	0.1097	0.1032	0.1677

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4260
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9360
predicted_AVG	0.3296
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	1.2970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3870
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.6280
predicted_SLG	0.4653
predicted_SO	0.4090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.4260	0.3773	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1200	3.9360	4.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3300	0.3296	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.3840	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3600	1.2970	1.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.4030	0.4484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6280	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4653	0.4652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.4090	0.5154	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	3
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2095

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.795	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	4.000	1.205	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.500	0.191	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	2.000	1.205	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.600	0.108	-0.200
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.500	0.035	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.846	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	1.154	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.895	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.388	-0.074
predicted_H	1.014	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.723	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.3902	0.2927	0.0244	0.0732	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.20	39	-	148.000	31.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	16.000	18.000	33.000	0.2095	0.2924	0.3649	0.2095	0.0338	0.1284	0.1216	0.2230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.9650
predicted_AVG	0.2741
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3315
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.4094
predicted_SO	0.6370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0750	0.0866	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0110	0.0275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.9650	3.8948	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2741	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3360	0.3880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.0870	1.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1460	0.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3315	0.3317	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.3120	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3980	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4094	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6370	0.7233	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Elias Díaz (553869) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.562	0.000	-0.312	0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.351	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.345	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.220	0.020
predicted_H	0.744	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875
season	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2700
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2462
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3013
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.4553
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2700	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.5820	3.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2520	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8820	0.7444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1540	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3013	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4570	0.4217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5270	0.4421	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4553	0.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7580	0.6601	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	553869
playerID	553869
playerName	Elias Díaz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	2.000	1.818	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.000	0.200
predicted_BB	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.333	-0.117	-0.133
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.257	0.000	-0.057	0.200
predicted_SO	0.455	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.250	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.028
predicted_H	0.553	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	-0.098
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.554	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	0.1935	0.3243	0.2258	0.1935	0.1935	0.1935	0.1613
season	0.20	11	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	0.2000	0.3171	0.2571	0.2000	0.1714	0.1714	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3270
predicted_AVG	0.1839
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2924
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.2606
predicted_SO	0.6650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1100	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	3.3270	3.2504	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1839	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.4860	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6120	0.5528	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2924	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.4280	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4940	0.4496	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.6650	0.5540	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Lane Thomas (657041) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.150	3.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	-0.129	0.200
predicted_R	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.150	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.022	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.133	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.582	-0.018
predicted_H	0.542	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.170	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	0.761	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.0769	0.2941	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	0.2333	0.3947	0.3333	0.2333	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333	0.2000
season	0.20	20	-	63.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	0.1905	0.3289	0.2381	0.1905	0.0159	0.0635	0.1905	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1180
predicted_AVG	0.1797
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_H	0.5610
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3275
predicted_R	0.1870
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.2543
predicted_SO	0.7710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0420	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1500	3.1180	3.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1797	0.1798	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5660	0.5820	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5610	0.5417	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1500	0.1870	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2420	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2543	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7710	0.7611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	657041
playerID	657041
playerName	Lane Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.925	5.000	1.075	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.400	-0.197	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.775	2.000	-0.775	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	1.000	-0.150	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.238	0.400	-0.238	-0.400
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.925	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.925	0.000	0.075	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.925	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	0.925	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.802	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	0.078
predicted_H	0.616	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.232	-0.000
predicted_R	0.367	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.497	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.925

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.1892	0.2439	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.1892	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	40	-	157.000	31.000	5.000	6.000	18.000	15.000	6.000	37.000	0.1975	0.2381	0.3439	0.1974	0.0382	0.1147	0.0382	0.2357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7150
predicted_AVG	0.1691
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_H	0.6280
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.2319
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.3205
predicted_SO	1.1060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1060	0.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9250	3.7150	3.8019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1691	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.2830	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6280	0.6164	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2319	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3610	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5090	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9250	1.1060	1.0311	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Starling Marte (516782) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 10

All-history rows before 20260513: 10

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	2.000	-0.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.500	0.000	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	1.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.667	0.139	-0.167
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.500	-0.091	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.362	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.151	0.051
predicted_H	1.056	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000
predicted_R	0.255	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.355	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000
predicted_SO	0.913	-0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4667	0.5000	0.5333	0.4667	0.1333	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.3333	0.3611	0.4242	0.3333	0.0606	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.20	10	-	33.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.3333	0.3611	0.4242	0.3333	0.0606	0.0303	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4350
predicted_AVG	0.3337
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	1.1460
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.3784
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.4442
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2190	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.4350	3.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3337	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.2120	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1460	1.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3784	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3210	0.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3840	0.3547	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4442	0.4441	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8110	0.9134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	516782
playerID	516782
playerName	Starling Marte
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3054

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	5.000	0.024	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.250	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.400	-0.055	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	1.450	1.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.214	2.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.435	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.400	0.028	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.476	1.000	0.524	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.736	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.491	1.000	0.009	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.762	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.388	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	1.450	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.435	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.736	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.007	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.069
predicted_H	1.517	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.380	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.435	-0.000
predicted_R	0.625	0.149
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.736	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	-0.115

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.379 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5455	1.0000	0.5000	0.1500	0.2000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.3571	0.3864	0.6905	0.3571	0.0952	0.1191	0.0476	0.1905
season	0.20	42	-	167.000	51.000	11.000	1.000	6.000	20.000	20.000	19.000	32.000	0.3054	0.3723	0.4910	0.3054	0.0359	0.1198	0.1138	0.1916

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0290
predicted_AVG	0.3881
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	1.5630
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3930
predicted_OBP	0.4346
predicted_R	0.7280
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.7355
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.2080	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	4.0290	4.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3880	0.3881	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.3350	0.3828	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4500	1.5630	1.5169	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3930	0.3795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4350	0.4346	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.7280	0.6251	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6100	0.5896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7360	0.7355	0.7357	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.5680	0.6472	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2385

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	1.000	0.844	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.406	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	4.000	-0.406	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.428	0.417
predicted_BB	0.531	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.401	0.500
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	0.531	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	1.594	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.500	0.633	0.500
predicted_SO	1.156	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	1.000	-1.156	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.531	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	0.054
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.472	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	-0.056
predicted_H	0.753	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.446	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	1.110	-0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.3030	0.3846	0.5152	0.3030	0.0303	0.1515	0.1515	0.3030
season	0.20	32	-	109.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	17.000	37.000	0.2385	0.3488	0.3670	0.2385	0.0275	0.1193	0.1560	0.3394

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5210
predicted_AVG	0.2316
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3147
predicted_R	0.4280
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.3614
predicted_SO	1.0750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2500	0.2096	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.5210	3.4716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2316	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5310	0.4330	0.4751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8160	0.7533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3147	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4280	0.4456	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3740	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3614	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	1.0750	1.1098	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Seth Lugo (607625) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	4.000	0.875	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.125	4.000	-1.125	-3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	6.000	7.000	-3.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.812	4.000	-2.712	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	5.000	-3.250	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	14.000	35.000	11.000	28.000	1.000	4.2000	1.5333	0.4667	1.1667	0.3667	0.9333	0.0333
last_10	0.35	8	47.200	17.000	48.000	17.000	42.000	1.000	3.2098	1.3636	0.3566	1.0070	0.3566	0.8811	0.0210
season	0.20	8	47.200	17.000	48.000	17.000	42.000	1.000	3.2098	1.3636	0.3566	1.0070	0.3566	0.8811	0.0210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8400
predicted_ER	2.2150
predicted_ERA	4.0071
predicted_H	5.2120
predicted_HR	0.3370
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6400
predicted_WHIP	1.4175

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8400	2.4345	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2150	1.5923	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0071	4.0071	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.2120	4.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3370	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.6400	3.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4175	1.4175	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	607625
playerID	607625
playerName	Seth Lugo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.776	1.000	0.424	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.5000	1.3333	0.1667	0.8333	0.5000	0.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.8000	0.3000	0.3000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	16.000	6.000	14.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	3.3750	1.4375	0.3750	0.8750	0.5625	0.3750	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5930
predicted_ER	0.5440
predicted_ERA	3.3383
predicted_H	1.3140
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0040
predicted_WHIP	1.3007

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5930	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5440	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3383	3.3383	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3140	0.5148	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1500	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0040	0.3934	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3007	1.3007	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	3.7241	1.6552	0.4138	0.6207	1.0345	1.0345
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	0.6735	0.7347	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_ER	0.4440
predicted_ERA	3.3213
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1640
predicted_WHIP	1.3156

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6460	0.8606	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4440	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3213	3.3213	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9360	0.3687	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1640	0.4585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3156	1.3156	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.438	1.000	2.562	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.812	1.000	3.188	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.150	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.6000	1.3000	0.4000	0.9000	0.4000	1.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	16	15.200	7.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_ER	0.5360
predicted_ERA	4.0036
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2184

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4240	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.5360	2.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0036	4.0036	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.0450	2.8484	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1880	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1510	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2184	1.2184	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	0.200	0.247	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.9091	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.8750	0.3750	0.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	17	14.200	5.000	11.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2273	0.3409	0.7500	0.4773	0.7500	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_ER	0.4140
predicted_ERA	4.1295
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.3557

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3320	0.7441	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4140	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1295	4.1295	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8900	0.3410	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7500	0.9042	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3557	1.3557	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.924	1.000	-0.824	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.353	2.000	-1.353	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	1.000	2.7931	0.8276	0.3103	0.6207	0.2069	1.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	17	17.100	4.000	8.000	5.000	23.000	1.000	2.0769	0.7500	0.2308	0.4615	0.2885	1.3269	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.2280
predicted_ERA	3.3866
predicted_H	0.4800
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7030
predicted_WHIP	1.1436

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2280	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3866	3.3866	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4800	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0580	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7030	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1436	1.1436	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: CHW

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2453

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	2.000	0.214	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.255	0.500
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.333	0.219	0.167
predicted_R	0.393	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.123	0.500
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	0.000	-1.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.038	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.650	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.061
predicted_H	1.089	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.349	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.251

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.4118	0.4500	0.4118	0.4118	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.3235	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.0882	0.2647
season	0.20	28	-	106.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	6.000	36.000	0.2453	0.2807	0.3774	0.2453	0.0189	0.1321	0.0566	0.3396

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5440
predicted_AVG	0.3179
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	1.1270
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3607
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3783
predicted_SO	0.8400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0850	0.1104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0130	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.5440	3.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3179	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3220	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1270	1.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3607	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3140	0.3486	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4880	0.4714	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3783	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	0.8400	1.0354	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.875	3.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_SO	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.036
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.051	0.176
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	0.035
predicted_H	0.627	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.097	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.512	0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1538	0.2667	0.1538	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538	0.2308
last_10	0.35	8	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.2609	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.1304
season	0.20	8	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.2609	0.2609	0.0435	0.0870	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.2940
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	0.7200
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2955
predicted_R	0.2320
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.3006
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0850	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8750	3.2940	3.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3330	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7200	0.6271	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0570	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2955	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2320	0.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3220	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3006	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.7020	0.5122	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.065	0.000
predicted_BB	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.250	-0.121	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	1.000	-0.167	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	3.000	-0.778	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.778	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.028
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.228	0.228
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.658	-0.120
predicted_H	0.564	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.594	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.3529	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	9	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.1852	0.3714	0.6667	0.1852	0.1482	0.1852	0.2593	0.2593
season	0.20	9	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.1852	0.3714	0.6667	0.1852	0.1482	0.1852	0.2593	0.2593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.1899
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.2270
predicted_OBP	0.3007
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.4030
predicted_SLG	0.4369
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1720	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5010	3.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1899	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7780	0.5140	0.6579	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6650	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2270	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3007	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5060	0.5937	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4030	0.3414	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4369	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8250	0.7994	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2530

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.964	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.964	3.000	0.036	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.080	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.189	0.500
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.289	0.000	0.044	0.333
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.964	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.083
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.010	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.004
predicted_H	0.645	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.277	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.3571	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2963	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	28	-	83.000	21.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	20.000	0.2530	0.3111	0.2892	0.2530	0.0602	0.0843	0.2410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0480
predicted_AVG	0.2296
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2918
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.3403
predicted_SO	0.6800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.2590	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9640	3.0480	3.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2296	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2580	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7000	0.6453	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2990	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2850	0.2645	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3403	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6800	0.6955	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2639

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	0.857	0.000
predicted_3B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	1.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	-0.064	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	2.000	0.095	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	-0.172	-0.300
predicted_R	0.619	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.750	-0.003	-0.350
predicted_SO	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.095	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.619	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	0.024
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.042
predicted_AB	3.545	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.220	-0.066
predicted_H	1.026	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.276	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.662	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.398	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.659	0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	0.3429	0.4250	0.4000	0.3429	0.0000	0.0857	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.20	21	-	72.000	19.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	6.000	11.000	0.2639	0.3721	0.4028	0.2639	0.0139	0.1250	0.0833	0.1528

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0180
predicted_AB	3.5330
predicted_AVG	0.2893
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.2760
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3674
predicted_R	0.6990
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3833
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1870	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0950	0.0180	0.0534	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.5330	3.5454	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2893	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1640	0.2200	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0220	1.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2760	0.2760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0360	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3674	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6190	0.6990	0.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3960	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3833	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.7730	0.6586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2374

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	3.000	-0.658	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.667	-0.237	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.737	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.737	1.000	1.263	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	2.000	-0.868	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.750	0.028	-0.350
predicted_R	0.763	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.763	1.000	-0.763	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.621	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.667	-0.482	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.737	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.763	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	0.621	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.016
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.575	-0.083
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.646	-0.091
predicted_H	1.067	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.130	-
predicted_HR	0.305	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.000
predicted_R	0.808	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.824	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.621	0.000
predicted_SO	0.616	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4762	0.8125	0.3750	0.1250	0.3125	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	0.2973	0.4000	0.5676	0.2973	0.0811	0.2432	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	33.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	29.000	28.000	26.000	0.2374	0.3721	0.4820	0.2374	0.0648	0.1655	0.2014	0.1870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.3090
predicted_BB	0.5820
predicted_H	1.0860
predicted_HBP	0.1300
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.4104
predicted_R	0.8400
predicted_RBI	0.8400
predicted_SLG	0.6212
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1590	0.1479	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.5160	3.5746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7370	0.5820	0.6460	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0860	1.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1300	0.1300	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3090	0.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4104	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7630	0.8400	0.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	0.8400	0.8235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6210	0.6212	0.6211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.5680	0.6159	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2808

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	0.763	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	4.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.219	0.250
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	1.000	0.921	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	1.000	-0.079	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.150	0.250
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	3.000	0.789	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	1.000	0.346	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.105	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.105	2.000	0.895	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	1.105	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.794	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.100
predicted_H	1.107	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.667	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.234	0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.6111	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.5641	0.3333	0.0513	0.1282	0.0513	0.4103
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	41.000	9.000	3.000	8.000	26.000	16.000	42.000	0.2808	0.3497	0.4041	0.2808	0.0205	0.0548	0.1096	0.2877

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7600
predicted_AVG	0.3106
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3547
predicted_R	0.6550
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.5286
predicted_SO	1.3260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.3110	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.7600	3.7941	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3106	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.2500	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1680	1.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1680	0.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3547	0.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.6550	0.6671	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4880	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5286	0.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1050	1.3260	1.2341	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	3.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	1.256	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	1.000	-1.256	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.010
predicted_H	0.646	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.186	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.738	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.285	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.4000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.1622	0.2791	0.4054	0.1622	0.0541	0.1892	0.1622	0.3243
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	31.000	8.000	10.000	28.000	18.000	15.000	49.000	0.2138	0.3174	0.4759	0.2138	0.0690	0.1931	0.1035	0.3379

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.1788
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.2558
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.7790
predicted_SLG	0.4136
predicted_SO	1.3050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3020	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8330	3.7854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1788	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3680	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6850	0.6456	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1980	0.1864	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2558	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.5290	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7790	0.7380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4136	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.3050	1.2847	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2254

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	3.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	0.000	-0.821	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.250	-0.162	-0.050
predicted_R	0.718	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.000	-0.549	0.000
predicted_SO	1.564	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.564	3.000	-1.564	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.795	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.718	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	1.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.046	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.620	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.729	-0.066
predicted_H	0.591	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.246	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.606	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.720	0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.6667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	17.000	0.1714	0.3409	0.4571	0.1714	0.0857	0.1714	0.2571	0.4857
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	32.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	28.000	31.000	61.000	0.2254	0.3621	0.5493	0.2253	0.1056	0.2042	0.2183	0.4296

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6060
predicted_AVG	0.1682
predicted_BB	0.6820
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_OBP	0.2998
predicted_R	0.5280
predicted_RBI	0.4530
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	1.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.0600	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.6060	3.6204	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1682	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7950	0.6820	0.7286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6060	0.5912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2510	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7180	0.5280	0.6063	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4530	0.4435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3948	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5640	1.8290	1.7198	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_KC@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Noah Schultz (702273) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	3.200	4.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.600	7.000	-0.600	-5.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.400	7.000	0.600	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.860	3.200	-0.660	1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.600	3.000	-0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	13.000	17.000	16.000	23.000	2.000	4.6800	1.3200	0.5200	0.6800	0.6400	0.9200	0.0800
last_10	0.35	5	25.000	13.000	17.000	16.000	23.000	2.000	4.6800	1.3200	0.5200	0.6800	0.6400	0.9200	0.0800
season	0.20	5	25.000	13.000	17.000	16.000	23.000	2.000	4.6800	1.3200	0.5200	0.6800	0.6400	0.9200	0.0800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4650
predicted_ER	2.3850
predicted_ERA	4.4413
predicted_H	3.9120
predicted_HR	0.5060
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.5400
predicted_WHIP	1.3193

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.4650	2.7653	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3850	2.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4413	4.4413	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.9120	3.9614	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5060	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.5400	4.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3193	1.3193	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	4.68
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	702273
playerID	702273
playerName	Noah Schultz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-0.900	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6620
predicted_ER	0.8620
predicted_ERA	4.5008
predicted_H	1.6680
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5740
predicted_WHIP	1.3522

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6620	0.9110	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.8620	1.7003	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5008	4.5008	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.6680	1.9126	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2040	0.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5740	0.4145	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3522	1.3522	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	3.500	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.550	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_ER	0.6750
predicted_ERA	4.6712
predicted_H	1.3060
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.4034

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5180	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6750	1.6703	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6712	4.6712	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	1.3060	4.0810	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2090	0.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1830	1.0455	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4034	1.4034	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_ER	0.3300
predicted_ERA	2.9682
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0780
predicted_WHIP	1.4152

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4770	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3300	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9682	2.9682	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9390	0.3394	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0780	0.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4152	1.4152	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	3.3956
predicted_H	0.4240
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4810
predicted_WHIP	1.2508

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1610	0.0503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1760	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3956	3.3956	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4240	0.1325	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4810	0.8378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2508	1.2508	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260513_LAA@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.536922, "home_win_probability": 0.536922, "away_win_probability": 0.463078, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 CLE", "confidence": 0.536922, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 2 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAA 3 - 4 CLE	CLE	0.537	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAA 2 - 5 CLE	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAA	4-6	0.400	2.80	4.60	-18	2L	cold	average
Home CLE	5-5	0.500	3.80	3.90	-1	2W	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	LAA @ CLE	2 - 3	CLE	1	close
2026-05-11	LAA @ CLE	2 - 7	CLE	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target CLE	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAA	33	8	2	0	2	1	8
Player finalized CLE	30	8	6	0	4	5	7
Player model fractional LAA	31.62	7.23	3.24	0.93	3.03	3.05	8.68
Player model fractional CLE	31.19	7.12	4.62	0.97	4.36	4.68	6.91
Simulation box LAA	30	3	2	1	2	4	9
Simulation box CLE	32	8	5	3	5	5	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAA	Starter	Reid Detmers	4.10	2	3	4	3	4.22	1.26	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Kirby Yates	1.10	3	1	3	1	4.61	1.39	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.10	0	0	1	0	4.27	1.22	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1	0	0	0	1	3.52	1.11	True
Home CLE	Starter	Parker Messick	4.10	0	5	1	3	3.48	1.13	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.21	1.11	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.60	1.08	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Hunter Gaddis	1.10	0	1	0	0	4.44	1.43	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Tim Herrin	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.26	1.41	-
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	0.20	2	0	1	1	4.40	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAA

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2754

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.884	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.884	2.000	0.116	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.025	0.250
predicted_BB	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.116	1.000	-0.116	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	0.000	-0.070	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.372	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.372	0.000	0.628	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.698	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.000	-0.163	0.250
predicted_SO	0.907	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.907	0.000	0.093	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.884	-
predicted_AVG	0.357	-
predicted_BB	0.116	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.399	-
predicted_R	0.372	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.698	-
predicted_SO	0.907	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	0.157
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.636	-0.248
predicted_AVG	0.357	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.147	0.031
predicted_H	1.249	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.170	-
predicted_HR	0.267	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.677	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.698	0.000
predicted_SO	0.811	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.884

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.4375	0.4737	1.0000	0.4375	0.1250	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.3529	0.3947	0.6176	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.0294	0.2353
season	0.20	43	-	167.000	46.000	5.000	6.000	25.000	16.000	5.000	39.000	0.2754	0.3167	0.4132	0.2754	0.0359	0.1497	0.0299	0.2335

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4630
predicted_AVG	0.3567
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	1.2350
predicted_HBP	0.1700
predicted_HR	0.2650
predicted_OBP	0.3990
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.6680
predicted_SLG	0.6982
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1160	0.3830	0.2734	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8840	3.4630	3.6358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3570	0.3567	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1160	0.1690	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.2350	1.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1700	0.1700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2650	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3990	0.3990	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3720	0.3800	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6680	0.6770	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6980	0.6982	0.6981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9070	0.7450	0.8115	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.250	-0.351	-0.250
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.453	1.000	-0.453	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.781	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.036
predicted_H	0.863	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.376	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.667	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.418	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	0.165

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2619	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.0790	0.0790
season	0.20	17	-	64.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	0.2812	0.3472	0.4531	0.2812	0.0312	0.1562	0.1094	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2303
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.2943
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.6740
predicted_SLG	0.4178
predicted_SO	0.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.2070	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.7950	3.7808	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2303	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3430	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8740	0.8626	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1650	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2943	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3430	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6740	0.6674	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4178	0.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2350	0.5490	0.4001	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2737

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.519	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	2.000	0.481	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	-0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.963	0.000	-0.963	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.500	-0.343	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.519	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.605	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.017
predicted_H	0.900	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.150	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.307	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.817	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.4000	0.2857	0.0286	0.0857	0.0571	0.2286
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	26.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	9.000	7.000	24.000	0.2737	0.3429	0.4737	0.2737	0.0526	0.1158	0.0737	0.2526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6740
predicted_AVG	0.2667
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.1500
predicted_HR	0.1520
predicted_OBP	0.3356
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4361
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1590	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5190	3.6740	3.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2280	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9800	0.9001	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1500	0.1500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1520	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3356	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2860	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4560	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4361	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.7600	0.8173	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	3.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.247	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_SO	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.219	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.247	-
predicted_SO	0.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.038
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.072	0.215
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	0.040
predicted_H	0.449	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.219	0.000
predicted_R	0.105	0.105
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.396	0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714
last_10	0.35	7	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000
season	0.20	7	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3930
predicted_AVG	0.1582
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.5370
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2192
predicted_R	0.2620
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.2467
predicted_SO	0.5590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0950	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.3930	3.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1582	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2420	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.5370	0.4490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2190	0.2192	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2620	0.1052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2480	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2470	0.2467	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2860	0.5590	0.3956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.548	4.000	-1.548	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.929	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.929	1.000	1.071	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	2.000	0.095	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.600	0.331	0.150
predicted_R	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	1.452	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.517	0.750	1.483	1.250
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.929	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.786	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.590	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.762	-0.167
predicted_H	0.865	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	-0.245
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.368	0.201

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.3889	0.2778	0.0278	0.0556	0.1944	0.4444
season	0.20	42	-	149.000	38.000	6.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	39.000	49.000	0.2550	0.4188	0.5168	0.2550	0.0738	0.1544	0.2617	0.3289

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6180
predicted_AVG	0.2477
predicted_BB	0.6480
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.3631
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.3686
predicted_SO	1.5060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1570	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.6180	3.5895	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2477	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9290	0.6480	0.7625	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8960	0.8650	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0920	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3631	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7860	0.3720	0.5406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2180	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3686	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.5060	1.3679	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2270

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.250	-0.227	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.075	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.500	-0.447	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	2.000	-1.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	0.052
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.653	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.065
predicted_H	0.681	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.079	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.424	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.319	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	0.2000	0.3171	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.0857	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	39	-	141.000	32.000	7.000	8.000	28.000	20.000	18.000	52.000	0.2270	0.3253	0.4468	0.2270	0.0567	0.1986	0.1277	0.3688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6800
predicted_AVG	0.1953
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.7180
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2721
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3380
predicted_SO	1.3100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2680	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.6800	3.6530	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1953	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3510	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7180	0.6815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.3610	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2870	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.3100	1.3195	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.209	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.209	0.000	0.791	1.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.977	4.000	0.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.034	0.250
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	1.000	-0.581	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.093	0.000	-0.093	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.860	0.000	0.140	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.200	-0.072	0.050
predicted_R	0.651	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.651	0.000	-0.651	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.114	0.500
predicted_SO	1.442	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.442	2.000	0.558	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.977	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.651	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.442	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.032	0.009
predicted_AB	4.048	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	-0.121
predicted_H	0.747	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.222	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	1.360	-0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.977

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0000	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	0.1795	0.2667	0.3333	0.1795	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.3333
season	0.20	43	-	171.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	28.000	25.000	62.000	0.2164	0.3216	0.3860	0.2164	0.0351	0.1053	0.1462	0.3626

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	4.0960
predicted_AVG	0.1953
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.2620
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.2370
predicted_SLG	0.3090
predicted_SO	1.3040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2090	0.1680	0.1846	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0380	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9770	4.0960	4.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1953	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.3770	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8000	0.7473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6510	0.5240	0.5755	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2370	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3090	0.3090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4420	1.3040	1.3599	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1771

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.310	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.310	2.000	0.690	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.500	-0.177	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.586	1.000	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.292	0.500	-0.292	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.345	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.345	0.000	-0.345	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.310	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	1.345	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	0.018
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.234	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	-0.170
predicted_H	0.716	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.194	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.123	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	-0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	12.000	0.1935	0.2424	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.0000	0.0645	0.3871
season	0.20	29	-	96.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	39.000	0.1771	0.2946	0.2917	0.1771	0.0312	0.0833	0.1458	0.4062

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0320
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.1740
predicted_AVG	0.2343
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2793
predicted_R	0.1300
predicted_RBI	0.1250
predicted_SLG	0.2842
predicted_SO	1.0150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0320	0.0179	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0080	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3100	3.1740	3.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2343	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.1800	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7440	0.7159	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2793	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.1300	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1250	0.1228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3450	1.0150	1.1600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Bryce Teodosio (669326) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	2.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	0.000	0.857	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.053
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.005	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.029
predicted_H	0.764	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.344	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.4615	0.3077	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.3214	0.3448	0.3929	0.3214	0.0357	0.0357	0.3571
season	0.20	14	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	16.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1700
predicted_AVG	0.2772
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3247
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.4008
predicted_SO	0.9330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2550	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.1700	3.0053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2040	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8790	0.7638	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3247	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4080	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2700	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9330	1.0435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	669326
playerID	669326
playerName	Bryce Teodosio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Reid Detmers (672282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	6.000	1.125	-3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	2.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.875	2.000	-0.875	2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.225	3.200	-1.125	0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.875	3.000	-2.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	13.000	25.000	9.000	30.000	2.000	4.1786	1.2143	0.4643	0.8929	0.3214	1.0714	0.0714
last_10	0.35	8	43.200	21.000	39.000	15.000	47.000	3.000	4.3282	1.2366	0.4809	0.8931	0.3435	1.0763	0.0687
season	0.20	8	43.200	21.000	39.000	15.000	47.000	3.000	4.3282	1.2366	0.4809	0.8931	0.3435	1.0763	0.0687

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7720
predicted_ER	2.3840
predicted_ERA	4.2171
predicted_H	4.6330
predicted_HR	0.4740
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.2360
predicted_WHIP	1.2588

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7720	2.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3840	2.1872	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2171	4.2171	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.6330	4.3086	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4740	1.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.2360	4.0901	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2588	1.2588	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	3
HR	2
BF	22
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	6
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.33
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672282
playerID	672282
playerName	Reid Detmers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.500	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_ER	0.6620
predicted_ERA	4.6130
predicted_H	1.2820
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2580
predicted_WHIP	1.3859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5090	0.8754	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6620	2.4067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6130	4.6130	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2820	2.5640	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1570	0.7861	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2580	1.0655	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3859	1.3859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.157	0.100	-0.057	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	6.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.6000	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	14	19.000	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3158	1.1053	0.3684	0.5789	0.5263	1.1053	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.6020
predicted_ERA	4.2699
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HR	0.2260
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2910
predicted_WHIP	1.2223

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6020	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2699	4.2699	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0410	1.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2260	0.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2910	0.5285	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2223	1.2223	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.343	1.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.929	2.000	-1.929	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	6.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	3.7674	1.0465	0.4186	0.5581	0.4884	1.1861
season	0.20	14	20.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	4.3548	1.0645	0.4839	0.5323	0.5323	1.3064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	3.5228
predicted_H	0.8240
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3530
predicted_WHIP	1.1119

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5300	0.8035	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4770	0.1994	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5228	3.5228	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8240	0.3445	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3530	0.5657	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1119	1.1119	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: CLE

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 44

All-history rows before 20260513: 44

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.682	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.682	4.000	0.318	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.040	0.250
predicted_BB	0.705	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.705	0.000	-0.705	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	0.227	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.000	-0.087	0.250
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	-0.120	0.250
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.682	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.705	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.254	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.750	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	-0.038
predicted_H	0.753	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.328	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	0.721	0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 44

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	0.1944	0.3409	0.1944	0.1944	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.2222
season	0.20	44	-	162.000	34.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	31.000	28.000	0.2099	0.3368	0.3704	0.2099	0.0370	0.0988	0.1914	0.1728

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7970
predicted_AVG	0.2059
predicted_BB	0.6410
predicted_H	0.7820
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3212
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.3400
predicted_SLG	0.2540
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0570	0.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6820	3.7970	3.7502	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2059	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7050	0.6410	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7820	0.7527	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3212	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.4760	0.5134	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3400	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2540	0.2540	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7800	0.7214	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	44
Season rows before report date	44
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	44
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.154	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	3.000	-1.154	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.923	0.000	1.077	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.000	0.100	0.500
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.923	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.251	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.826	-0.097
predicted_H	0.689	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.143	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.507	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2667	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3750	0.2500	0.0312	0.1875	0.2500	0.1562
season	0.20	13	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	12.000	8.000	0.1951	0.4000	0.2927	0.1951	0.0244	0.1463	0.2927	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3470
predicted_AVG	0.2262
predicted_BB	0.7300
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HBP	0.1430
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3814
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.6120
predicted_SLG	0.3980
predicted_SO	0.6640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1550	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1540	3.3470	3.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2262	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9230	0.7300	0.8263	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7570	0.6886	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1430	0.1430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3814	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.4770	0.5074	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6120	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3980	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.6640	0.6395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2736

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	1.000	-0.419	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.060	0.333
predicted_BB	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	0.000	0.065	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	0.871	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.500	0.142	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.484	0.000	2.516	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.000	0.871	1.333
predicted_SO	1.129	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.129	1.000	-1.129	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	1.129	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.399	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.578	0.126
predicted_H	0.652	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.1875	0.3810	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.3125	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.1515	0.2821	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.0909	0.1818	0.3636
season	0.20	31	-	106.000	29.000	8.000	4.000	15.000	15.000	14.000	35.000	0.2736	0.3583	0.4623	0.2736	0.0377	0.1415	0.1321	0.3302

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3830
predicted_AVG	0.2025
predicted_BB	0.6750
predicted_H	0.6850
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3346
predicted_R	0.5850
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.2713
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.1020	0.1698	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.3830	3.3986	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2025	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.6750	0.5781	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6850	0.6524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3346	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.5850	0.5411	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4750	0.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2713	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1290	1.1320	1.1307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2826

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.000	-0.033	0.250
predicted_BB	0.528	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.250	-0.117	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	0.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.528	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.878	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.533	0.005
predicted_H	0.934	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.075	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.389	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.406	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.3590	0.4444	0.5385	0.3590	0.0256	0.1795	0.1538	0.0769
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	16.000	19.000	16.000	0.2826	0.3671	0.5000	0.2826	0.0435	0.1812	0.1377	0.1159

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.2488
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3398
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.5510
predicted_SLG	0.3810
predicted_SO	0.3790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.2690	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.9100	3.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2488	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5280	0.5360	0.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9730	0.9342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0780	0.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3398	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3500	0.3892	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5510	0.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3810	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.3790	0.4061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.938	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.938	3.000	1.062	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.667	-0.048	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.562	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.750	-0.161	-0.500
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.578	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.532	1.000	-0.282	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.062	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.062	0.000	-0.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.938	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.578	-
predicted_SO	1.062	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.175	0.237
predicted_AVG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	-0.060
predicted_H	0.889	0.139
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.225	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.646	0.096
predicted_SLG	0.578	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.7647	0.3529	0.1177	0.3529	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	8.000	0.3226	0.4324	0.6452	0.3226	0.0968	0.2258	0.1935	0.2581
season	0.20	16	-	47.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	10.000	9.000	17.000	0.2979	0.4107	0.5319	0.2979	0.0638	0.1489	0.1915	0.3617

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4100
predicted_AVG	0.3009
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.2590
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.6530
predicted_RBI	0.7420
predicted_SLG	0.5780
predicted_SO	0.8050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1590	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9380	3.4100	3.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3009	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.4420	0.5017	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.0260	0.8887	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2590	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6530	0.6391	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.7420	0.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5780	0.5780	0.5780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0620	0.8050	0.9328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Austin Hedges (595978) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.188	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	0.000	-0.882	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.333	-0.101	-0.083
predicted_R	0.688	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.000	-0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.286	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.321	0.009
predicted_H	0.815	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.117	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.668	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.6250	0.3125	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3235	0.4194	0.2581	0.0323	0.0645	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.20	16	-	51.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	5.000	12.000	0.2941	0.3509	0.4314	0.2941	0.0196	0.0784	0.0980	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2650
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3820
predicted_AVG	0.2740
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3402
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.4730
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2650	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1880	3.3820	3.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2740	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3300	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9270	0.8145	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1330	0.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3402	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.6480	0.6678	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3540	0.3124	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4730	0.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8410	0.7959	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	595978
playerID	595978
playerName	Austin Hedges
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.185	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.185	2.000	-0.185	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.136	0.333
predicted_BB	0.704	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.704	3.000	0.296	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	0.370	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.600	0.157	-0.100
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.039	0.333
predicted_SO	1.074	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.074	1.000	-0.074	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.185	-
predicted_AVG	0.148	-
predicted_BB	0.704	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	1.074	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.125	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.148	0.000
predicted_BB	0.749	0.045
predicted_H	0.440	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.681	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.990	-0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.0714	0.3000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857	0.3571	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	0.1429	0.3333	0.3929	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857	0.3571
season	0.20	27	-	86.000	17.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	19.000	29.000	0.1977	0.3426	0.3721	0.1977	0.0349	0.1512	0.2209	0.3372

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0770
predicted_AVG	0.1483
predicted_BB	0.7840
predicted_H	0.4560
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3170
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.7060
predicted_SLG	0.3523
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.0950	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1850	3.0770	3.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1480	0.1483	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7040	0.7840	0.7487	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4560	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1760	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.4770	0.5119	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7060	0.6813	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3523	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0740	0.9240	0.9903	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2806

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	0.000	0.881	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.310	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.310	2.000	0.690	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.500	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	1.071	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.333	0.143	0.167
predicted_R	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.500	0.369	0.250
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.310	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.408	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.022
predicted_H	1.040	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.468	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.297	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.4118	0.4500	0.4706	0.4118	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3659	0.3143	0.2857	0.0000	0.1143	0.1143	0.0857
season	0.20	42	-	139.000	39.000	5.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	14.000	14.000	0.2806	0.3567	0.3813	0.2806	0.0216	0.1583	0.1007	0.1007

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4780
predicted_AVG	0.3258
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	1.1330
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3864
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.3975
predicted_SO	0.2720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.1540	0.1394	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3100	3.4780	3.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3258	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2950	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.1330	1.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0258	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3864	0.3862	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4160	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5100	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3975	0.3977	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.2720	0.2975	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2773

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	3.000	1.161	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.667	-0.077	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.065	2.000	-0.065	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	1.000	0.806	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.667	-0.123	-0.467
predicted_R	0.484	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	1.000	0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	1.667	0.313	-0.867
predicted_SO	0.839	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	0.000	1.161	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.918	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.028
predicted_H	0.907	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.157	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.385	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.997	0.158

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2368	0.2927	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2895
season	0.20	31	-	119.000	33.000	7.000	6.000	17.000	15.000	5.000	26.000	0.2773	0.3228	0.4874	0.2773	0.0504	0.1429	0.0420	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1300
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.2313
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2927
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.3860
predicted_SO	1.1160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.1300	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	3.8790	3.9182	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2313	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.2100	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8970	0.9069	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1550	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2927	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.4040	0.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3810	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3860	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	1.1160	0.9967	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Parker Messick (800048) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.375	1.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	4.375	7.000	-3.375	-6.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.700	5.200	-1.600	-1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	6.375	7.000	-1.375	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	11.000	24.000	6.000	35.000	3.000	3.3750	1.0227	0.3750	0.8182	0.2046	1.1932	0.1023
last_10	0.35	8	47.000	12.000	35.000	11.000	51.000	4.000	2.2979	0.9787	0.2553	0.7447	0.2340	1.0851	0.0851
season	0.20	8	47.000	12.000	35.000	11.000	51.000	4.000	2.2979	0.9787	0.2553	0.7447	0.2340	1.0851	0.0851

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4890
predicted_ER	2.0740
predicted_ERA	3.4824
predicted_H	4.5560
predicted_HR	0.5860
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.7970
predicted_WHIP	1.1279

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.4890	2.2634	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.0740	1.0111	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4824	3.4824	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.5560	2.7336	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5860	0.2857	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.7970	5.3885	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1279	1.1279	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.30
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800048
playerID	800048
playerName	Parker Messick
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.100	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.368	2.000	-0.368	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	0.000	9.000	0.000	1.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.5294	0.0000	1.5882	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	10.000	1.000	15.000	0.000	1.6875	1.0312	0.1875	0.9375	0.0938	1.4062	0.0000
season	0.20	19	19.200	7.000	19.000	4.000	26.000	1.000	3.2034	1.1695	0.3559	0.9661	0.2034	1.3220	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_ER	0.4240
predicted_ERA	3.2122
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4050
predicted_WHIP	1.1055

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2910	0.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4240	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2122	3.2122	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0210	1.0087	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4050	1.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1055	1.1055	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.20
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	1.000	0.405	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.524	3.000	0.476	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429	2.1429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	2.000	5.000	17.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8077	0.0000	0.2308	0.5769	1.9615	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.100	4.000	7.000	9.000	32.000	1.000	1.9636	0.8727	0.2182	0.3818	0.4909	1.7454	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5590
predicted_ER	0.3440
predicted_ERA	2.5960
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6670
predicted_WHIP	1.0774

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5590	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3440	0.1395	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5960	2.5960	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7270	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.6670	1.8649	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0774	1.0774	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.642	1.100	0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.4000	1.4400	0.6000	1.2000	0.2400	0.8400	0.2400
season	0.20	11	9.100	6.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	5.7857	1.6071	0.6429	1.2857	0.3214	0.8571	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.5770
predicted_ERA	4.4380
predicted_H	1.2300
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0370
predicted_WHIP	1.4287

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4430	0.1514	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5770	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4380	4.4380	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2300	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0516	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0370	1.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4287	1.4287	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	0.200	0.494	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	2.2500	1.7500	0.2500	1.2500	0.5000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	0.9643	1.3929	0.1071	0.8571	0.5357	0.4286
season	0.20	17	13.100	1.000	12.000	8.000	7.000	0.6750	1.5000	0.0750	0.9000	0.6000	0.5250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_ER	0.4140
predicted_ERA	3.2607
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9500
predicted_WHIP	1.4075

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4950	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4140	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2607	3.2607	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1140	0.4166	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9500	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4075	1.4075	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	0.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	0.722	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.611	0.000	1.389	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.872	1.000	-0.672	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.0000	0.6000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	3.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.6774	0.3871	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	18	19.200	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	5.0339	1.2203	0.5593	0.9661	0.2542	1.0170	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_ER	0.3980
predicted_ERA	4.4017
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8470
predicted_WHIP	1.3265

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3360	0.7258	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3980	1.3385	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4017	4.4017	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7420	0.8935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1620	0.6540	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8470	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3265	1.3265	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.03
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260513_MIA@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.512854, "home_win_probability": 0.512854, "away_win_probability": 0.48714599999999997, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 MIN", "confidence": 0.512854, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 4 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIA 3 - 5 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	0.513	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	4-6	0.400	3.60	4.20	-6	1L	average	average
Home MIN	5-5	0.500	4.30	5.70	-14	3W	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	MIA @ MIN	0 - 3	MIN	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	32	8	4	0	3	1	8
Player finalized MIN	34	9	2	0	2	2	10
Player model fractional MIA	31.05	6.76	3.90	0.97	3.68	3.00	7.71
Player model fractional MIN	32.97	7.55	4.09	0.79	3.33	3.06	8.87
Simulation box MIA	38	12	3	0	3	6	9
Simulation box MIN	34	8	5	1	5	3	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Max Meyer	4.20	2	3	4	2	3.13	1.12	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.96	1.37	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1	0	1	1	0	3.20	1.27	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	1	0	0	0	0	2.57	0.99	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Anthony Bender	0.20	3	2	3	1	3.24	1.03	True
Home MIN	Starter	Simeon Woods Richardson	3.20	0	6	7	4	6.53	1.69	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	1.10	1	0	1	0	8.02	1.77	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1.10	0	0	1	1	3.33	1.32	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Andrew Morris	1	1	2	1	1	3.53	1.25	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Luis García	1	1	1	1	0	4.98	1.36	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	0.20	0	0	1	0	3.98	1.38	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2394

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	3.000	1.263	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.333	-0.039	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.133	-0.133
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.333	-0.138	-0.133
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.668	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.076
predicted_H	0.909	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.958	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.243 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.20	19	-	71.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	19.000	0.2394	0.3333	0.3380	0.2394	0.0141	0.0423	0.1127	0.2676

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6080
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3352
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.4220
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1710	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7370	3.6080	3.6679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.2790	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9430	0.9091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3352	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.5630	0.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3340	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9577	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3130

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	4.000	0.406	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.000	-0.063	0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.000	0.029	0.400
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.094	0.000	-0.094	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.574	0.000	-0.324	0.250
predicted_SO	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.312	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.527	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.066
predicted_H	0.821	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.125	-
predicted_HR	0.226	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.144
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.356	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.2727	0.3902	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.2424	0.1818	0.1212
season	0.20	32	-	115.000	36.000	3.000	9.000	35.000	19.000	10.000	10.000	0.3130	0.3712	0.5739	0.3130	0.0783	0.3044	0.0870	0.0870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4770
predicted_AVG	0.2387
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.1250
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3383
predicted_R	0.3420
predicted_RBI	0.7180
predicted_SLG	0.4516
predicted_SO	0.3890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0450	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.4770	3.5271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2387	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.4280	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8300	0.8214	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1250	0.1250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2300	0.2257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3383	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.3420	0.4499	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7180	0.7103	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4516	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3120	0.3890	0.3560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.022	0.200
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.133	0.200
predicted_R	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.159	0.200
predicted_SO	1.194	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	0.000	0.806	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.306	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.186	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.466	0.049
predicted_H	0.561	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.056	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.151
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.195	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.1935	0.3243	0.2581	0.1935	0.0000	0.0645	0.1613	0.5161
season	0.20	36	-	117.000	26.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	15.000	43.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3590	0.2222	0.0256	0.1026	0.1282	0.3675

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1390
predicted_AVG	0.1885
predicted_BB	0.5020
predicted_H	0.5920
predicted_HBP	0.0560
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3112
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2829
predicted_SO	1.1960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1980	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.1390	3.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1885	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.5020	0.4658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5920	0.5614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0560	0.0560	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3112	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3060	0.5690	0.4571	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2640	0.2495	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2829	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.1960	1.1951	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	0.949	1.000
predicted_AB	3.795	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.795	3.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.333	0.151	0.000
predicted_BB	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	0.000	1.410	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.333	0.293	0.267
predicted_R	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.333	0.723	0.667
predicted_SO	1.154	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	0.000	-1.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.795	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.031
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.024
predicted_AB	3.581	-0.214
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	-0.084
predicted_H	0.768	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.253	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.679	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	1.036	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.3333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	14.000	0.1944	0.3256	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.3889
season	0.20	39	-	148.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	22.000	23.000	45.000	0.1824	0.3068	0.2770	0.1824	0.0135	0.0811	0.1554	0.3040

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.4320
predicted_AVG	0.2274
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.2530
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3562
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.6920
predicted_SLG	0.4012
predicted_SO	0.9540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1560	0.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0100	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7950	3.4320	3.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2274	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.4470	0.5058	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7800	0.7677	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2530	0.2530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1400	0.1359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3562	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.5300	0.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.6920	0.6788	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4012	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	0.9540	1.0363	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.3350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3354

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	4.025	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.025	3.000	-1.025	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.335	0.000	0.331	0.667
predicted_BB	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.350	0.000	0.650	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.235	0.600
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	0.575	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.468	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.000	0.170	0.667
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	4.025	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.468	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.036
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.023
predicted_AB	4.047	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000
predicted_BB	0.104	-0.046
predicted_H	1.323	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.468	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.327 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.025

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.3721	0.3721	0.5116	0.3721	0.0233	0.1163	0.0000	0.1163
season	0.20	40	-	161.000	54.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	26.000	6.000	31.000	0.3354	0.3647	0.4969	0.3354	0.0248	0.1056	0.0373	0.1925

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3120
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	4.0630
predicted_AVG	0.3382
predicted_BB	0.0710
predicted_H	1.3740
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3524
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.4680
predicted_SO	0.6440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3120	0.2864	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0250	4.0630	4.0473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3382	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.0710	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.3740	1.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3524	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5140	0.5702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3670	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4680	0.4680	0.4680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.6440	0.6982	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.335

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.3090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3092

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.049	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.707	4.000	0.293	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_BB	0.537	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	0.000	-0.146	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.000	0.003	0.400
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.461	0.000	-0.211	0.250
predicted_SO	0.488	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.488	1.000	0.512	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.049	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.488	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.022
predicted_AB	3.874	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.399	-0.138
predicted_H	0.834	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.272	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.604	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	0.147

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.4500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4872	0.2308	0.0769	0.1282	0.0769	0.1282
season	0.20	41	-	152.000	47.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	27.000	22.000	20.000	0.3092	0.3966	0.4605	0.3092	0.0263	0.0921	0.1447	0.1316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8910
predicted_AVG	0.2151
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.8370
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2740
predicted_OBP	0.2710
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.4547
predicted_SO	0.7380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0870	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0490	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.8910	3.8741	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2151	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.3030	0.3994	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8370	0.8341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2740	0.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.5650	0.6037	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5050	0.5029	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4547	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4880	0.7380	0.6350	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.309

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Leo Jiménez (677870) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 10

All-history rows before 20260513: 10

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.556	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.300	3.000	1.700	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	0.033	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.250	0.033	0.150
predicted_R	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.333	0.033	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.035
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.865	0.308
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	0.005
predicted_H	0.540	0.110
predicted_HBP	0.110	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.199	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	0.582	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2778	0.1429	0.1429	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	9	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2174	0.3214	0.2174	0.2174	0.0435	0.1304	0.1739
season	0.20	9	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2174	0.3214	0.2174	0.2174	0.0435	0.1304	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.2710
predicted_AVG	0.2090
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HBP	0.1100
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3002
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.2869
predicted_SO	0.7640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0800	0.0345	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5560	3.2710	2.8645	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3450	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.6840	0.5396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1100	0.1100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0540	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3002	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1110	0.3140	0.1986	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.3060	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2869	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.7640	0.5821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677870
playerID	677870
playerName	Leo Jiménez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.172	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.172	2.000	1.828	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.600	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.404	0.600
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	3.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.621	0.000	2.379	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.600	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.350	0.600
predicted_R	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.800	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.507	0.800
predicted_SO	1.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.448	1.000	-0.448	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.172	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	1.448	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.029	-0.143
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	0.072
predicted_H	0.407	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.398	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000
predicted_SO	1.271	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	3.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2500	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1111	0.2121	0.1481	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.20	29	-	92.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	15.000	9.000	6.000	42.000	0.1957	0.2500	0.2935	0.1956	0.0109	0.1630	0.0652	0.4565

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9150
predicted_AVG	0.1443
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.4210
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2521
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.2032
predicted_SO	1.1290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.0900	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1720	2.9150	3.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1443	0.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.3360	0.2786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.4210	0.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2521	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.3010	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4120	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2032	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4480	1.1290	1.2708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	1.857	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.018	0.200
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.217	0.000	-0.017	0.200
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	-0.073	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.276	0.133
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	0.040
predicted_H	0.599	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.226	0.083
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.2667	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	7	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.2727	0.1818	0.0454	0.0454	0.3182
season	0.20	7	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.2727	0.1818	0.0454	0.0454	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4670
predicted_AVG	0.2010
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	0.6970
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2573
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3397
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2780	0.2827	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.4670	3.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2010	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.2400	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6970	0.5986	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2573	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.3460	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2600	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3397	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9380	0.9745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Max Meyer (676974) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	2.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.625	2.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.875	6.000	0.125	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.162	5.000	-0.962	-0.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.625	5.000	-2.625	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	7.000	19.000	7.000	30.000	0.000	2.3049	0.9512	0.2561	0.6951	0.2561	1.0976	0.0000
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	13.000	31.000	15.000	45.000	2.000	2.7857	1.0952	0.3095	0.7381	0.3571	1.0714	0.0476
season	0.20	8	42.000	13.000	31.000	15.000	45.000	2.000	2.7857	1.0952	0.3095	0.7381	0.3571	1.0714	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6420
predicted_ER	1.7650
predicted_ERA	3.1289
predicted_H	4.0470
predicted_HR	0.3000
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.2750
predicted_WHIP	1.1207

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6420	1.8255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.7650	1.8854	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1289	3.1289	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.0470	4.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3000	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.2750	4.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1207	1.1207	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.79
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676974
playerID	676974
playerName	Max Meyer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.083	1.000	-1.083	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.875	2.100	-0.775	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.5000	0.2308	1.0385	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	19.200	3.000	16.000	11.000	19.000	1.000	1.3729	1.3729	0.1525	0.8136	0.5593	0.9661	0.0508
season	0.20	12	23.200	3.000	18.000	13.000	24.000	1.000	1.1408	1.3099	0.1268	0.7606	0.5493	1.0141	0.0423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7040
predicted_ER	0.5210
predicted_ERA	2.9616
predicted_H	1.4600
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4370
predicted_WHIP	1.3666

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7040	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5210	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9616	2.9616	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4600	0.6313	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0713	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4370	1.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3666	1.3666	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	2.000	0.141	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	17	16.000	6.000	10.000	13.000	16.000	3.3750	1.4375	0.3750	0.6250	0.8125	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.1983
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8810
predicted_WHIP	1.2696

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5230	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1983	3.1983	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8210	0.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8810	0.9534	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2696	1.2696	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	0.100	0.332	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4444	0.0000	0.1111	0.3333	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.200	1.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.5400	0.5400	0.0600	0.1800	0.3600	0.9000	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.5701
predicted_H	0.6010
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8380
predicted_WHIP	0.9877

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3280	0.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5701	2.5701	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6010	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8380	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9877	0.9877	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	2.588	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	2.353	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	-0.471	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.5769	0.2308	1.1539
season	0.20	17	14.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.7500	0.5454	1.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.2840
predicted_ERA	3.2387
predicted_H	0.5700
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7470
predicted_WHIP	1.0324

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2450	0.7107	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2840	1.9594	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2387	3.2387	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5700	2.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7470	1.5199	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0324	1.0324	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: MIN

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.235	0.500
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	1.027	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.180	0.250
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.000	0.338	0.750
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.692	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.019
predicted_H	1.114	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.000
predicted_SO	0.709	-0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.3421	0.3750	0.4211	0.3421	0.0000	0.1842	0.0526	0.1842
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	36.000	5.000	5.000	22.000	18.000	10.000	27.000	0.2647	0.3197	0.4118	0.2647	0.0368	0.1618	0.0735	0.1985

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.3093
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	1.1460
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3634
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.4030
predicted_SO	0.6930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.2140	0.1807	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.7040	3.6922	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.3030	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1460	1.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3634	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.4860	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6070	0.5872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4030	0.4030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6930	0.7086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	4.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.191	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.031	0.250
predicted_R	0.553	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.553	0.000	0.447	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.194	0.500
predicted_SO	0.947	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.191	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.209	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.969	0.180
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.220	-0.148
predicted_H	0.641	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.191	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	-0.199
predicted_RBI	0.305	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.209	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	0.310

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	10.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	15.000	0.1395	0.1395	0.1395	0.1395	0.0000	0.0698	0.0000	0.3488
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	30.000	5.000	3.000	19.000	21.000	14.000	36.000	0.2083	0.2812	0.3056	0.2083	0.0208	0.1319	0.0972	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0970
predicted_AVG	0.1689
predicted_BB	0.1150
predicted_H	0.6920
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.1909
predicted_R	0.2120
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.2090
predicted_SO	1.4790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0550	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	4.0970	3.9687	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1689	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.1150	0.2204	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6920	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1910	0.1909	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.2120	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3300	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.4790	1.2573	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.3260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.423	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.423	4.000	0.577	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_BB	0.731	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.731	0.000	-0.731	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.115	0.000	-1.115	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.577	1.000	-0.577	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.423	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.731	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.577	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.751	0.328
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.530	-0.201
predicted_H	1.108	0.148
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.534	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.3636	0.3182	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.3250	0.3864	0.3500	0.3250	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1250
season	0.20	26	-	89.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	11.000	19.000	15.000	0.3258	0.4505	0.4045	0.3258	0.0112	0.0786	0.2135	0.1685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.0080
predicted_AVG	0.3055
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3656
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.3729
predicted_SO	0.5010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1610	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4230	4.0080	3.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3055	0.3053	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7310	0.3730	0.5305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.2240	1.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3656	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.3720	0.3944	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2750	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3729	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5770	0.5010	0.5344	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.326

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Victor Caratini (605170) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1935

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.056	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.000	-0.038	0.250
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.013	0.250
predicted_SO	0.815	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.815	1.000	0.185	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	0.815	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.486	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.053
predicted_H	0.518	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.000
predicted_R	0.228	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	0.201

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	0.1143	0.1750	0.1143	0.1143	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.3714
season	0.20	27	-	93.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	22.000	0.1935	0.2883	0.2366	0.1935	0.0107	0.1290	0.0968	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5190
predicted_AVG	0.1555
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.5480
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2332
predicted_R	0.2330
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.1944
predicted_SO	1.1730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0410	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5190	3.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1555	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2380	0.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5480	0.5181	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2332	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2330	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3490	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1944	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8150	1.1730	1.0155	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	605170
playerID	605170
playerName	Victor Caratini
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Matt Wallner (670242) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.594	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	4.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	-0.019	0.250
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	4.000	0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.594	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.544	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.224	-0.088
predicted_H	0.640	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.164	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.396	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	1.383	-0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.2353	0.1177	0.0294	0.0882	0.0588	0.3824
season	0.20	32	-	115.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	10.000	48.000	0.1739	0.2692	0.3043	0.1739	0.0348	0.0870	0.0870	0.4174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5060
predicted_AVG	0.1935
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.6780
predicted_HBP	0.1640
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.2624
predicted_R	0.3640
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.3624
predicted_SO	1.2950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.1510	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5940	3.5060	3.5438	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1935	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.1570	0.2235	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6780	0.6402	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1640	0.1640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1460	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2624	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.3640	0.3958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4450	0.4214	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3624	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.2950	1.3830	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670242
playerID	670242
playerName	Matt Wallner
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2313

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.675	3.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.102	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.180	0.000
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.225	1.000	-0.225	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.333	0.027	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.675	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.355	-0.320
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.683	0.233
predicted_H	0.759	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.147	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.618	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	0.2143	0.4500	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	5.000	0.2759	0.4750	0.4138	0.2759	0.0000	0.0345	0.3448	0.1724
season	0.20	40	-	147.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	18.000	25.000	0.2313	0.3195	0.3061	0.2313	0.0068	0.1020	0.1225	0.1701

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1290
predicted_AVG	0.2400
predicted_BB	0.8480
predicted_H	0.7510
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.4135
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.3164
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1800	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6750	3.1290	3.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2400	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.8480	0.6833	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7510	0.7589	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4135	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.4040	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1450	0.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6130	0.6180	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.360	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.231	3.000	0.769	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.145	0.400
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	0.923	2.000
predicted_HR	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.089	0.150
predicted_R	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.795	1.000	0.205	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	3.462	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.613	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.545	0.000	0.655	1.200
predicted_SO	1.179	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	0.000	-1.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.795	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.613	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.053
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.280	-0.080
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.035
predicted_H	1.198	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.381	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.813	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.775	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.613	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.087

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.360

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3182	0.3750	0.6818	0.3182	0.0909	0.1818	0.0909	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	10.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.2619	0.3261	0.6667	0.2619	0.1191	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381
season	0.20	39	-	165.000	42.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	21.000	31.000	12.000	46.000	0.2545	0.3111	0.5455	0.2545	0.0788	0.1273	0.0727	0.2788

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.2250
predicted_AVG	0.2798
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	1.1820
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3750
predicted_OBP	0.3394
predicted_R	0.8260
predicted_RBI	0.7650
predicted_SLG	0.6129
predicted_SO	1.1580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2680	0.2315	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3600	4.2250	4.2804	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2798	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3670	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.1820	1.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3750	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3394	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7950	0.8260	0.8133	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.7650	0.7753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6130	0.6129	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.1580	1.1666	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Tristan Gray (656484) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2373

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.250	-0.237	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	1.000	-0.235	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.554	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.156	0.038
predicted_H	0.781	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.055
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	-0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	0.2368	0.2564	0.3158	0.2368	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.3684
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	14.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	7.000	2.000	21.000	0.2373	0.2698	0.4068	0.2373	0.0508	0.2373	0.0339	0.3559

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6330
predicted_AVG	0.2388
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2806
predicted_R	0.5180
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3290
predicted_SO	1.0820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0640	0.0616	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.6330	3.5542	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2388	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1920	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8670	0.7809	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2806	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.5180	0.4665	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3960	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3290	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	1.0820	1.1564	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	656484
playerID	656484
playerName	Tristan Gray
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	4.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.111	0.083
predicted_BB	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.250	-0.056	0.083
predicted_SO	1.077	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	0.059
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.344	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.089
predicted_H	0.793	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.163	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.161	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	-0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.2667	0.4054	0.4000	0.2667	0.0000	0.0333	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	26	-	90.000	20.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	13.000	11.000	28.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3889	0.2222	0.0333	0.1000	0.1222	0.3111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2490
predicted_AVG	0.2547
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.1630
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3395
predicted_R	0.5540
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.3971
predicted_SO	0.9940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.3370	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.2490	3.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2547	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.2630	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8280	0.7934	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1630	0.1630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5540	0.5300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1700	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3971	0.3971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	0.9940	1.0308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_MIA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Simeon Woods Richardson (680573) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	3.750	5.000	-3.750	-5.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	6.375	4.000	0.625	3.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.700	4.100	-1.500	-0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	2.375	2.000	3.625	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	22.000	35.000	12.000	11.000	5.000	8.4857	2.0143	0.9429	1.5000	0.5143	0.4714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	8	39.000	30.000	51.000	16.000	19.000	8.000	6.9231	1.7179	0.7692	1.3077	0.4103	0.4872	0.2051
season	0.20	8	39.000	30.000	51.000	16.000	19.000	8.000	6.9231	1.7179	0.7692	1.3077	0.4103	0.4872	0.2051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9230
predicted_ER	3.1550
predicted_ERA	6.5325
predicted_H	5.4190
predicted_HR	0.7820
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	2.8770
predicted_WHIP	1.6887

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.9230	2.9874	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	3.1550	1.5381	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.5325	6.5325	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.4190	6.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7820	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	2.8770	4.4775	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6887	1.6887	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	0
ER	0
BB	4
SO	6
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	110

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	6.92
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	61
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	34
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	680573
playerID	680573
playerName	Simeon Woods Richardson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	2.000	-0.381	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	0.333	-5.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	-0.095	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	0.457	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5150
predicted_ER	1.0030
predicted_ERA	8.0234
predicted_H	1.4720
predicted_HR	0.3070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0060
predicted_WHIP	1.7664

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5150	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0030	1.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.0234	8.0234	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4720	1.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3070	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0060	0.4003	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7664	1.7664	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.176	0.000	-0.176	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.782	1.000	0.318	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	2.3824	1.4118	0.2647	1.1471	0.2647	0.7059
season	0.20	16	16.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.1020	0.3061	0.7959

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.4670
predicted_ERA	3.3322
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1360
predicted_WHIP	1.3175

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3670	0.7507	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4670	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3322	3.3322	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2950	1.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1360	0.4474	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3175	1.3175	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.222	0.000	-1.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.667	1.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	0.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.2273	0.9545	0.1364	0.6818	0.2727	0.6818	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577
season	0.20	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_ER	0.4860
predicted_ERA	3.5278
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0840
predicted_WHIP	1.2464

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4200	0.7680	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4860	0.7944	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5278	3.5278	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1260	1.0504	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0840	1.6337	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2464	1.2464	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.286	1.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.286	2.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.743	1.000	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.7857	1.2857	0.6429	0.8571	0.4286	0.0000	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	7.2000	1.5000	0.8000	1.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	12	12.000	10.000	17.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	7.5000	1.7500	0.8333	1.4167	0.3333	0.3333	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	4.9848
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6930
predicted_WHIP	1.3622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3750	0.1365	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5540	0.8377	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9848	4.9848	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9870	0.9953	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1830	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6930	0.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3622	1.3622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	10.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	3.000	-0.647	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	-0.753	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_ER	0.3860
predicted_ERA	3.9765
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7660
predicted_WHIP	1.3806

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4350	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3860	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9765	3.9765	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7720	0.9067	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0262	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7660	0.3136	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3806	1.3806	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260513_NYY@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.543597, "home_win_probability": 0.456403, "away_win_probability": 0.543597, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence": 0.543597, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYY 5 - 4 BAL	NYY	0.544	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYY 4 - 3 BAL	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYY	5-5	0.500	5.40	3.50	19	1W	hot	average
Home BAL	4-6	0.400	3.50	5.70	-22	1L	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	NYY @ BAL	6 - 2	NYY	4	blowout
2026-05-11	NYY @ BAL	2 - 3	BAL	1	close
2026-05-04	BAL @ NYY	1 - 12	NYY	11	blowout
2026-05-03	BAL @ NYY	3 - 11	NYY	8	blowout
2026-05-02	BAL @ NYY	4 - 9	NYY	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYY	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target BAL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYY	34	8	5	0	4	3	9
Player finalized BAL	31	9	3	0	0	2	9
Player model fractional NYY	32.11	6.81	4.21	1.05	4.24	4.16	9.19
Player model fractional BAL	30.90	6.07	3.87	0.67	2.63	4.02	8.59
Simulation box NYY	34	8	4	1	4	1	10
Simulation box BAL	32	5	3	0	3	5	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYY	Starter	Max Fried	4.10	3	6	5	2	3.73	1.16	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Brent Headrick	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.43	1.18	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.76	1.11	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1.10	0	0	0	2	3.47	1.32	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	0.10	0	0	0	1	2.70	1.23	True
Home BAL	Starter	Kyle Bradish	3.20	2	5	6	1	4.50	1.52	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	2.10	0	0	0	0	2.58	0.98	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Andrew Kittredge	1	2	0	2	0	6.85	1.71	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Anthony Nunez	1	0	2	0	0	3.83	1.31	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1	0	3	0	0	3.11	1.27	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYY

Anthony Volpe (683011) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 0

All-history rows before 20260513: 0

System season_avg: 0.2441

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.352	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.918	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.457	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.876	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.019	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.352	-
predicted_H	0.918	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.457	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.876	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	0.002
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.740	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.015
predicted_H	0.920	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.002
predicted_R	0.511	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.001
predicted_SO	0.871	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3055
predicted_R	0.4990
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3946
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1800	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0190	0.0140	0.0179	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.7990	3.7395	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2441	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3520	0.2840	0.3365	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9180	0.9270	0.9200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3055	0.3105	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4990	0.5106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4570	0.4720	0.4604	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3946	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8760	0.8550	0.8712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 4

All-history rows before 20260513: 4

System season_avg: 0.0910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.011	0.261
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	0.010
predicted_H	0.564	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.114	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.322	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.363	-0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.1667	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4990
predicted_AVG	0.2003
predicted_BB	0.2780
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2658
predicted_R	0.3280
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.3078
predicted_SO	1.1080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1180	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	3.4990	3.0108	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2003	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2780	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.7010	0.5635	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0800	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3280	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.4010	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3078	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.1080	1.3635	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.091

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1746

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.333	0.075	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.500	-0.057	-0.250
predicted_R	0.657	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.657	1.000	-0.657	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	3.000	-0.600	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	1.333	-0.083	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.657	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.046
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.039
predicted_AVG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.630	-0.084
predicted_H	0.902	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.176	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.715	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.932	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.459	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.683	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.3333	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	6.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3409	0.5135	0.2432	0.0541	0.2703	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	35	-	126.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	23.000	25.000	25.000	0.1746	0.3072	0.3333	0.1746	0.0318	0.1667	0.1984	0.1984

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6620
predicted_AVG	0.2449
predicted_BB	0.5700
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3445
predicted_R	0.7570
predicted_RBI	0.9260
predicted_SLG	0.4588
predicted_SO	0.6600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2500	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.6620	3.6905	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2449	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.5700	0.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8970	0.9025	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1730	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3445	0.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6570	0.7570	0.7151	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	0.9260	0.9319	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4588	0.4589	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.6600	0.6826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2745

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.163	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.558	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.558	3.000	0.442	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.667	-0.025	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.791	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.791	2.000	-0.791	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.977	2.000	0.023	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.800	-0.163	-0.550
predicted_R	0.837	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.837	1.000	0.163	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.698	0.000	0.302	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.600	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.634	0.667	-0.384	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.256	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	0.000	0.744	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.558	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.791	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.837	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.600	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.017
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.503	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.876	0.085
predicted_H	1.025	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.271	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.000
predicted_R	0.699	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.509	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	1.273	0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	0.3125	0.5000	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.0625	0.3750	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	9.000	13.000	0.3333	0.4667	0.7222	0.3333	0.1111	0.2500	0.2500	0.3611
season	0.20	43	-	153.000	42.000	7.000	16.000	30.000	36.000	34.000	54.000	0.2745	0.4127	0.6340	0.2745	0.1046	0.1961	0.2222	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4650
predicted_AVG	0.3028
predicted_BB	0.9350
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.4482
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	0.5220
predicted_SLG	0.6001
predicted_SO	1.2840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1630	0.1920	0.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5580	3.4650	3.5029	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7910	0.9350	0.8763	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0490	1.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2780	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4482	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8370	0.6040	0.6990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5220	0.5089	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6000	0.6001	0.6001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.2840	1.2726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	4.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.000	-0.035	0.250
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.173	0.500
predicted_SO	1.231	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.231	3.000	-0.231	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.280	-
predicted_SO	1.231	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.811	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.058
predicted_H	0.661	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	1.374	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.1892	0.2619	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.3513
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	30.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	17.000	16.000	48.000	0.2041	0.2848	0.3265	0.2041	0.0272	0.0952	0.1088	0.3265

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.1852
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2453
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.3310
predicted_SLG	0.2802
predicted_SO	1.4760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1580	0.1563	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.8410	3.8111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1852	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.3110	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7110	0.6608	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2453	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.2760	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3310	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2800	0.2802	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2310	1.4760	1.3743	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

J.C. Escarra (641555) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	3.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.909	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.091	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.002
predicted_3B	0.065	-0.026
predicted_AB	3.573	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.295	0.022
predicted_H	0.715	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.398	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.885	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2941	0.1765	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2286	0.2895	0.3714	0.2286	0.1714	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.20	11	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.3333	0.2051	0.1538	0.0769	0.2564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6040
predicted_AVG	0.2186
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.4890
predicted_SLG	0.3563
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2780	0.2754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0910	0.0370	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.6040	3.5730	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2186	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.3190	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7880	0.7154	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0438	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4360	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4890	0.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3563	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.8580	0.8848	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641555
playerID	641555
playerName	J.C. Escarra
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.073	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.610	4.000	0.390	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	1.000	-0.634	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.561	0.000	1.439	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.073	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.683	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.561	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.074	0.001
predicted_AB	3.496	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.770	0.087
predicted_H	0.732	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.368	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.512	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.548	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.1250	0.3333	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	9.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4318	0.5000	0.2941	0.0000	0.2647	0.2647	0.0882
season	0.20	41	-	148.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	27.000	26.000	28.000	23.000	0.2770	0.3855	0.4865	0.2770	0.0338	0.1824	0.1892	0.1554

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0740
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.2188
predicted_BB	0.8300
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3678
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.5210
predicted_SLG	0.3380
predicted_SO	0.5390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1530	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0730	0.0740	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.4160	3.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2188	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6830	0.8300	0.7696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7480	0.7324	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3678	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.4820	0.5444	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5210	0.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3380	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5610	0.5390	0.5480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1753

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	4.000	0.655	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.000	0.075	0.250
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.157	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.219	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_SO	1.138	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.138	2.000	-0.138	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.157	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.219	-
predicted_SO	1.138	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.450	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.135	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.079
predicted_H	0.438	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.157	0.000
predicted_R	0.265	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.099	-0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	10.000	0.1944	0.1944	0.3333	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
season	0.20	29	-	97.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	33.000	0.1753	0.2308	0.2577	0.1753	0.0206	0.0928	0.0722	0.3402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5350
predicted_AVG	0.1347
predicted_BB	0.0990
predicted_H	0.4760
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.1570
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.2560
predicted_SLG	0.2189
predicted_SO	1.0670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1020	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.5350	3.4505	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1347	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.0990	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.4760	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0572	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1570	0.1570	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.2560	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2560	0.2355	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2190	0.2189	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1380	1.0670	1.0986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 34

All-history rows before 20260513: 34

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3040

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.363	0.417
predicted_BB	0.676	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.676	1.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.118	1.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.400	0.337	0.350
predicted_R	0.853	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	0.000	-0.794	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.664	0.250	0.336	0.750
predicted_SO	1.088	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.088	1.000	-0.088	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.676	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.853	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	1.088	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.091
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.839	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.475	-0.201
predicted_H	0.849	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.230	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.624	-0.229
predicted_RBI	0.512	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.2857	0.1429	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.5385	0.2821	0.0769	0.1538	0.0769	0.2308
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	38.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	29.000	23.000	37.000	0.3040	0.4133	0.6640	0.3040	0.0960	0.2160	0.1840	0.2960

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9580
predicted_AVG	0.2272
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2440
predicted_OBP	0.2852
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.5430
predicted_SLG	0.4406
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.1080	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.9580	3.8394	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2272	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6760	0.3300	0.4755	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8990	0.8490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2440	0.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2852	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8530	0.4580	0.6241	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5430	0.5123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4406	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0880	1.1050	1.0979	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Max Fried (608331) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.111	5.000	0.889	-2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.222	6.000	0.778	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.389	6.000	-2.289	-1.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.333	5.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	13.000	22.000	13.000	28.000	1.000	3.8152	1.1413	0.4239	0.7174	0.4239	0.9130	0.0326
last_10	0.35	9	58.200	19.000	38.000	18.000	48.000	1.000	2.9148	0.9545	0.3239	0.6477	0.3068	0.8182	0.0170
season	0.20	9	58.200	19.000	38.000	18.000	48.000	1.000	2.9148	0.9545	0.3239	0.6477	0.3068	0.8182	0.0170

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1130
predicted_ER	2.3090
predicted_ERA	3.7315
predicted_H	4.3400
predicted_HR	0.3520
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0450
predicted_WHIP	1.1586

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1130	2.0564	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.3090	2.6551	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7315	3.7315	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.3400	4.6706	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3520	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.0450	5.5233	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1586	1.1586	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	94

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	608331
playerID	608331
playerName	Max Fried
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.909	2.000	-0.909	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	0.200	0.395	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.045	1.000	-0.045	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	2.3824	0.9706	0.2647	0.7059	0.2647	0.9706	0.1765
season	0.20	22	21.200	5.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	2.0769	1.2923	0.2308	0.9231	0.3692	1.0615	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_ER	0.5440
predicted_ERA	3.4275
predicted_H	1.1930
predicted_HR	0.2460
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4280
predicted_WHIP	1.1825

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4950	0.2094	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5440	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4275	3.4275	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1930	0.5047	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2460	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4280	1.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1825	1.1825	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-1.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	1.000	0.178	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	1.000	-0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.5000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	2.6129	0.8710	0.2903	0.7742	0.0968	1.1613	0.0968
season	0.20	18	18.000	7.000	19.000	5.000	22.000	1.000	3.5000	1.3333	0.3889	1.0556	0.2778	1.2222	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.4980
predicted_ERA	3.7565
predicted_H	1.0200
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3280
predicted_WHIP	1.1125

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4980	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7565	3.7565	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0200	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0622	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3280	1.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1125	1.1125	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.565	1.100	0.535	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	9.000	4.000	14.000	2.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	0.9643	0.4286	1.5000	0.2143
season	0.20	20	16.200	5.000	13.000	11.000	24.000	2.000	2.7000	1.4400	0.3000	0.7800	0.6600	1.4400	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_ER	0.4520
predicted_ERA	3.4690
predicted_H	1.0620
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2680
predicted_WHIP	1.3174

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4840	1.3997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4520	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4690	3.4690	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0620	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2680	0.5021	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3174	1.3174	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.200	-0.625	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	1.2500	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1250	0.1250	0.8750	0.2500	0.5000	0.1250
season	0.20	20	18.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0000	0.7778	0.1111	0.6667	0.1111	0.3889	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1340
predicted_ER	0.1500
predicted_ERA	2.6970
predicted_H	0.4830
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.3560
predicted_WHIP	1.2323

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1340	0.6503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1500	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6970	2.6970	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4830	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3560	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2323	1.2323	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: BAL

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 25

All-history rows before 20260513: 25

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2755

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.920	4.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.080	0.000	-0.080	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.080	0.250
predicted_R	0.480	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.480	0.000	0.520	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.760	0.000	1.240	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.510	0.000	-0.010	0.500
predicted_SO	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.640	0.000	0.360	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.640	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.933	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.027
predicted_H	0.812	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.266	-0.000
predicted_R	0.493	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.761	0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.1750	0.2326	0.3250	0.1750	0.0250	0.0750	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	25	-	98.000	27.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	12.000	7.000	16.000	0.2755	0.3302	0.5102	0.2755	0.0510	0.1939	0.0714	0.1633

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2410
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9430
predicted_AVG	0.2147
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2658
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.3770
predicted_SLG	0.3955
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3200	0.2410	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9430	3.9328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2147	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.2320	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8460	0.8123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1550	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.5040	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3770	0.3606	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3955	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6400	0.8570	0.7608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2635

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.524	4.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.070	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.976	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.976	0.000	1.024	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	0.071	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.390	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.424	0.500	0.176	0.100
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.249	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.750	-0.045	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	1.000	0.190	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.976	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.390	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.249	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.246	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.365	-0.285
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	1.073	0.097
predicted_H	0.580	-0.050
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.390	-0.000
predicted_R	0.580	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.139	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	0.1333	0.3810	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	14.000	10.000	0.1379	0.4186	0.1724	0.1379	0.0000	0.0345	0.4828	0.3448
season	0.20	42	-	148.000	39.000	14.000	1.000	12.000	27.000	41.000	34.000	0.2635	0.4241	0.3784	0.2635	0.0068	0.0811	0.2770	0.2297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1690
predicted_AVG	0.1722
predicted_BB	1.1400
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3896
predicted_R	0.5360
predicted_RBI	0.1310
predicted_SLG	0.2489
predicted_SO	0.9640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1870	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.1690	3.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1722	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9760	1.1400	1.0732	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.5460	0.5802	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3900	0.3896	0.3898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.5360	0.5796	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1310	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2490	0.2489	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.9640	0.9013	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2011

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.262	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.262	4.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.049	0.250
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	-0.152	0.250
predicted_SO	1.357	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.357	0.000	-1.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.262	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	1.357	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.190	-0.072
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.246	-0.064
predicted_H	0.818	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.337	-0.211
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.091	-0.266

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.262

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	0.1818	0.2000	0.2045	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0227	0.2500
season	0.20	42	-	179.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	21.000	23.000	13.000	57.000	0.2011	0.2577	0.4022	0.2011	0.0503	0.1173	0.0726	0.3184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1400
predicted_AVG	0.2006
predicted_BB	0.2030
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2390
predicted_R	0.1930
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.2819
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1630	0.1646	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2620	4.1400	4.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2006	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.2030	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8300	0.8178	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2390	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.1930	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2910	0.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2819	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3570	0.9090	1.0911	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1635

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	2.000	0.750	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.000	0.087	0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.333	0.013	-0.083
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.192	0.500
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.114	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	0.003
predicted_H	0.585	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.335	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.2308	0.1538	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.2500	0.1429	0.0357	0.1071	0.0714	0.4286
season	0.20	32	-	104.000	17.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	10.000	36.000	0.1635	0.2368	0.3077	0.1635	0.0385	0.1346	0.0961	0.3462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0080
predicted_AVG	0.1985
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.2753
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3646
predicted_SO	1.1580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0430	0.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.0080	3.1140	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1985	0.1987	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3170	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5970	0.5852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2753	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3520	0.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4790	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3646	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.1580	1.1435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2048

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.192	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.192	3.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	-0.654	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.000	-0.017	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_SO	1.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.115	2.000	-0.115	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.192	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	1.115	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.249	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.003
predicted_H	0.868	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.241	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	1.049	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.3750	0.4118	0.3750	0.3750	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.3000	0.2667	0.0333	0.0667	0.3333
season	0.20	26	-	83.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	29.000	0.2048	0.2667	0.2289	0.2048	0.0241	0.0723	0.3494

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2960
predicted_AVG	0.2883
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3374
predicted_R	0.1850
predicted_RBI	0.2130
predicted_SLG	0.3383
predicted_SO	0.9940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0800	0.0786	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1920	3.2960	3.2486	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2883	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2250	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9500	0.8680	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3374	0.3372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.1850	0.2410	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2130	0.1934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3383	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1150	0.9940	1.0491	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.062	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.062	4.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.250	-0.184	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.500	-0.265	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.062	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.189	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.045
predicted_H	0.545	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.557	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	0.1724	0.3514	0.2069	0.1724	0.0000	0.0690	0.2414	0.3103
season	0.20	16	-	49.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	9.000	14.000	0.1837	0.3333	0.2653	0.1837	0.0204	0.1225	0.1837	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3110
predicted_AVG	0.1836
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.6080
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2949
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2714
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1500	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0620	3.3110	3.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1836	0.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.4740	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6080	0.5452	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0440	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2949	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.4920	0.5573	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3690	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2714	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9250	0.9005	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2112

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	4.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	-0.211	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.791	1.000	-0.791	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	-0.306	-0.250
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.628	0.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.250	-0.422	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.047	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.047	2.000	-0.047	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	1.047	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.789	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.309	-0.179
predicted_H	0.658	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.532	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=45.0, weight=0.240, BvP AVG=0.244)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.4615	0.2308	0.0513	0.1795	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	43	-	161.000	34.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	27.000	21.000	45.000	0.2112	0.3060	0.4224	0.2112	0.0497	0.1366	0.1304	0.2795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.1808
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2170
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3687
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1550	0.1869	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.8200	3.7889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1808	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.1850	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6910	0.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1860	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2170	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.4650	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4400	0.4195	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3687	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0470	1.0170	1.0293	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.593	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.593	0.000	0.407	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	-0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	2.000	-0.741	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.593	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.006
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.359	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	-0.087
predicted_H	0.696	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.2121	0.3158	0.3333	0.2121	0.0000	0.1212	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.20	27	-	90.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	12.000	16.000	20.000	0.2667	0.3774	0.4111	0.2667	0.0222	0.2000	0.1778	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.3800
predicted_AVG	0.2190
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3098
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.3297
predicted_SO	0.9070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.1950	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0370	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3800	3.3592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5930	0.4370	0.5061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7400	0.6957	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4000	0.4195	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3100	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3297	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.9070	0.8334	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Weston Wilson (642215) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	1.818	3.000	2.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.000	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.333	-0.173	-0.083
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.333	0.000	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	2.000	1.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	0.032
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.713	0.213
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	-0.048
predicted_H	0.503	0.143
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.039	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.142	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	0.883	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3846	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	9	-	20.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2500	0.4231	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.3500
season	0.20	9	-	20.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2500	0.4231	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.0030
predicted_AVG	0.2325
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3491
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.2000
predicted_SLG	0.3131
predicted_SO	0.8930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0760	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.0030	2.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2325	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.5120	0.5771	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.6980	0.5032	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0510	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3491	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3770	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.2000	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3131	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8930	0.8826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	642215
playerID	642215
playerName	Weston Wilson
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Kyle Bradish (680694) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.750	1.000	-1.750	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.750	3.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.750	5.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.037	7.000	-1.837	-3.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.625	10.000	-0.625	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	14.000	32.000	13.000	28.000	4.000	4.6098	1.6463	0.5122	1.1707	0.4756	1.0244	0.1463
last_10	0.35	8	41.000	22.000	46.000	22.000	45.000	5.000	4.8293	1.6585	0.5366	1.1220	0.5366	1.0976	0.1220
season	0.20	8	41.000	22.000	46.000	22.000	45.000	5.000	4.8293	1.6585	0.5366	1.1220	0.5366	1.0976	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0860
predicted_ER	2.3120
predicted_ERA	4.4962
predicted_H	4.9600
predicted_HR	0.6250
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.6890
predicted_WHIP	1.5227

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0860	1.5294	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3120	2.1521	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4962	4.4962	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.9600	5.4930	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6250	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.6890	4.8484	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5227	1.5227	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.83
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680694
playerID	680694
playerName	Kyle Bradish
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	1.220	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	2.000	-1.100	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	20	19.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	0.4737	0.4211	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7460
predicted_ER	0.5050
predicted_ERA	2.5849
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9360
predicted_WHIP	0.9799

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7460	0.3054	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5050	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5849	2.5849	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9780	0.4004	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.9360	0.7926	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9799	0.9799	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.625	0.000	0.375	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	8.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	19.6364	3.5455	2.1818	3.0000	0.5454	0.8182	0.2727
last_10	0.35	8	6.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.9500	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	8	6.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.9500	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.7080
predicted_ERA	6.8483
predicted_H	1.2100
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8790
predicted_WHIP	1.7090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3800	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.7080	1.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.8483	6.8483	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2100	1.7503	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1410	0.7285	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8790	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7090	1.7090	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.979	1.000	0.021	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	0.842	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	5.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.9706	1.3235	0.4412	0.9706	0.3529	0.9706	0.2647
season	0.20	18	20.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	4.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.7500	0.2500	1.1000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	3.8289
predicted_H	0.9510
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9230
predicted_WHIP	1.3097

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4250	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8289	3.8289	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9510	0.3944	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.0834	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9230	1.5534	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3097	1.3097	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.100	1.200	-0.100	-0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	1.625	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.0000	1.1053	0.0000	0.7895	0.3158	0.6316
last_10	0.35	8	10.200	2.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.6562	0.6562	1.0312
season	0.20	8	10.200	2.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.6562	0.6562	1.0312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_ER	0.3800
predicted_ERA	3.1106
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9880
predicted_WHIP	1.2747

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4320	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3800	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1106	3.1106	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9690	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.9880	2.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2747	1.2747	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260513_PHI@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.5128539999999999, "home_win_probability": 0.4871460000000001, "away_win_probability": 0.5128539999999999, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 2 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 4 - 2 BOS", "confidence": 0.5128539999999999, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 2 BOS", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "PHI 4 - 1 BOS", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 4 - 2 BOS	PHI	0.513	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 4 - 1 BOS	PHI	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	4.80	3.50	13	3W	average	average
Home BOS	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.10	3	2L	cold	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	PHI @ BOS	2 - 1	PHI	1	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target BOS	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	35	10	3	1	4	1	8
Player finalized BOS	33	8	0	0	0	2	7
Player model fractional PHI	33.02	8.66	4.49	1.62	4.65	2.71	6.98
Player model fractional BOS	32.98	6.76	3.42	0.71	2.95	2.89	7.68
Simulation box PHI	32	5	4	2	4	4	8
Simulation box BOS	32	5	1	0	1	3	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Andrew Painter	4.20	0	2	4	2	6.14	1.57	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	1.20	1	0	0	0	3.21	1.37	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.48	1.30	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	1	0	0	0	1	2.77	1.07	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Tanner Banks	1	0	3	0	0	4.55	1.56	-
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	0.10	0	1	0	0	4.36	1.44	True
Home BOS	Starter	Sonny Gray	3.20	3	5	3	3	3.59	1.26	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.95	1.10	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Tyler Samaniego	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.63	1.18	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	1	1	1	0	4.32	1.29	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Zack Kelly	1	0	0	0	0	3.79	1.42	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Justin Slaten	0.20	0	1	1	1	3.58	1.26	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2293

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	3.000	0.262	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.021	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.500	-0.106	-0.250
predicted_R	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.690	1.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.839	0.250	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.611	1.333	-0.361	-1.083
predicted_SO	1.405	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	0.000	0.595	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.670	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.839	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.010
predicted_AB	4.006	0.156
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	-0.186
predicted_H	1.184	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.695	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.804	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.991	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.839	0.000
predicted_SO	1.358	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.173

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.3636	0.3913	1.1818	0.3636	0.2727	0.3636	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	3.000	14.000	0.2683	0.3182	0.7317	0.2683	0.1463	0.1951	0.0732	0.3415
season	0.20	42	-	157.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	17.000	28.000	29.000	27.000	59.000	0.2293	0.3564	0.6115	0.2293	0.1083	0.1783	0.1720	0.3758

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1130
predicted_AVG	0.2952
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	1.2140
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.7120
predicted_OBP	0.3514
predicted_R	0.8820
predicted_RBI	1.0190
predicted_SLG	0.8393
predicted_SO	1.3260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0890	0.1208	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0070	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	4.1130	4.0057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.3280	0.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2140	1.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.6700	0.7120	0.6949	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3514	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.8820	0.8036	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	1.0190	0.9908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8390	0.8393	0.8392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.3260	1.3582	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Edmundo Sosa (624641) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2364

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.333	-0.236	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.333	-0.345	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.062	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.550	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.083	0.021
predicted_H	0.830	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.306	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.514	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2647	0.2647	0.2941	0.2647	0.0000	0.1471	0.0000	0.1765
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2364	0.2500	0.3455	0.2364	0.0182	0.1454	0.0182	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6610
predicted_AVG	0.2534
predicted_BB	0.1040
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2766
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.5770
predicted_SLG	0.3268
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1110	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.6610	3.5501	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0620	0.1040	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9280	0.8295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2766	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3620	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5770	0.5138	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3268	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.6990	0.6935	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	624641
playerID	624641
playerName	Edmundo Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2733

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.659	4.000	-1.659	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.561	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.561	0.000	1.439	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.132	0.500
predicted_R	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.610	0.000	-0.610	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.547	0.000	-0.547	0.000
predicted_SO	0.683	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.683	2.000	-0.683	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.659	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.561	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.610	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.502	-
predicted_SO	0.683	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.602	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.555	-0.006
predicted_H	0.848	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.254	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	-0.000
predicted_R	0.649	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.502	0.000
predicted_SO	0.664	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	6.000	0.3056	0.4048	0.7222	0.3056	0.1111	0.1389	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	41	-	150.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	25.000	23.000	28.000	0.2733	0.3678	0.5467	0.2733	0.0667	0.1600	0.1533	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.2415
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.3437
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.5023
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.1500	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6590	3.5620	3.6020	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2415	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5610	0.5510	0.5551	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8600	0.8476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2560	0.2535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3437	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6100	0.6760	0.6488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3900	0.3859	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5020	0.5023	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6830	0.6500	0.6636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	0.275
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.228
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	0.000	-0.325
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	-0.850
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.000	-0.295
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.000	-0.342
predicted_SO	1.075	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.075	2.000	0.925

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	1.075	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.005
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.823	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.053
predicted_H	0.716	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.175	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.087	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2381	0.3077	0.2051	0.0256	0.0513	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	43.000	0.2282	0.2952	0.3423	0.2282	0.0201	0.0805	0.0872	0.2886

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8930
predicted_AVG	0.1940
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2399
predicted_R	0.5100
predicted_RBI	0.1860
predicted_SLG	0.2858
predicted_SO	1.0950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1590	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0070	0.0145	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.8930	3.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1940	0.1940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.2350	0.2723	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7550	0.7156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2399	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.5100	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1860	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2858	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0750	1.0950	1.0867	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2185

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	4.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	2.000	1.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.500	0.232	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	1.000	0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.750	0.872	0.500
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.719	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.118
predicted_3B	0.034	-0.028
predicted_AB	3.741	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000
predicted_H	0.872	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.118	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.656	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	0.715	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.5946	0.2432	0.0811	0.2973	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	12.000	7.000	22.000	0.2185	0.2677	0.3782	0.2185	0.0252	0.1260	0.0588	0.1849

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3960
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7580
predicted_AVG	0.2466
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.2907
predicted_R	0.5720
predicted_RBI	0.6980
predicted_SLG	0.4582
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.3960	0.3064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0130	0.0341	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7190	3.7580	3.7412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2466	0.2468	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.2190	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9270	0.8723	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1250	0.1185	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2907	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.5720	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6980	0.6558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4582	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.7350	0.7148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 24

All-history rows before 20260513: 24

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	4.000	-0.542	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.098	0.333
predicted_BB	0.208	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	0.792	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	0.958	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.000	0.210	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	1.016	1.333
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.226	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.721	0.179
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.152	-0.056
predicted_H	0.719	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.226	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.547	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.211)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.1622	0.1622	0.2162	0.1622	0.0000	0.1081	0.0000	0.0811
season	0.20	24	-	85.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	14.000	0.2353	0.2903	0.3176	0.2353	0.0118	0.0941	0.0588	0.1647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2028
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2261
predicted_R	0.3230
predicted_RBI	0.3460
predicted_SLG	0.2825
predicted_SO	0.5170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1900	0.1796	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.8700	3.7214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2028	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.1050	0.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7850	0.7193	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2260	0.2261	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3230	0.3275	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3460	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2825	0.2823	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.5170	0.5469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 34

All-history rows before 20260513: 34

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2807

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.353	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.353	2.000	-0.353	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.341	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	1.000	0.676	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.333	-0.104	-0.083
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.404	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	2.000	0.235	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.353	-
predicted_AVG	0.341	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.320	-0.033
predicted_AVG	0.341	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	0.072
predicted_H	1.061	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000
predicted_R	0.323	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000
predicted_SO	0.820	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.4000	0.5000	0.6667	0.4000	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.3636	0.4324	0.5758	0.3636	0.0303	0.1515	0.1212	0.2121
season	0.20	34	-	114.000	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	26.000	0.2807	0.3543	0.4035	0.2807	0.0088	0.0790	0.0965	0.2281

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.2950
predicted_AVG	0.3406
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	1.1220
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.4201
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.5464
predicted_SO	0.8610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.1990	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0400	0.0482	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3530	3.2950	3.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.4510	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1220	1.0608	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1330	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4201	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.3450	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4220	0.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5464	0.5462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.8610	0.8196	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.3510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3507

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.403	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.351	0.250	-0.351	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.343	1.000	-1.343	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.250	-0.375	-0.250
predicted_R	0.629	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	1.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.500	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.743	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	0.000	-0.743	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.403	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.440	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.033	0.003
predicted_AB	3.772	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.403	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.083
predicted_H	1.455	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.440	0.000
predicted_R	0.759	0.130
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.682	-0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.380 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.800)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.4444	0.4762	0.4444	0.4444	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	18.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	0.4737	0.5116	0.5526	0.4737	0.0000	0.1053	0.0790	0.1316
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	47.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	22.000	6.000	26.000	0.3507	0.3750	0.5000	0.3508	0.0299	0.1567	0.0448	0.1940

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.4028
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	1.5030
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.4403
predicted_R	0.8550
predicted_RBI	0.4450
predicted_SLG	0.4764
predicted_SO	0.6380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0870	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0350	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.7300	3.7719	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4030	0.4028	0.4029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.3150	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.5030	1.4552	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4400	0.4403	0.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.8550	0.7594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4450	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4764	0.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.6380	0.6824	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.351

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.649	3.000	0.351	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.333	0.065	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.333	-0.002	-0.083
predicted_R	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.270	0.000	0.730	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.575	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.333	-0.031	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.649	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.270	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.575	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.480	-0.169
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.026
predicted_H	0.972	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.249	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.781	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.575	0.000
predicted_SO	0.412	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.462)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.4000	0.4706	0.8667	0.4000	0.1333	0.3333	0.1333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2647	0.3158	0.4706	0.2647	0.0588	0.2353	0.0882	0.0882
season	0.20	37	-	135.000	25.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	10.000	11.000	21.000	0.1852	0.2517	0.2815	0.1852	0.0222	0.1482	0.0815	0.1556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3570
predicted_AVG	0.2988
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	1.0030
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.3615
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.8030
predicted_SLG	0.5752
predicted_SO	0.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1560	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6490	3.3570	3.4796	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.3420	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0030	0.9723	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2560	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3615	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2700	0.4810	0.3924	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8030	0.7807	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5750	0.5752	0.5751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.2990	0.4120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Andrew Painter (691725) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.714	3.000	0.286	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	3.571	8.000	-3.571	-8.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	6.286	7.000	-2.286	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.500	3.200	-0.300	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	4.286	2.000	-2.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	20.000	31.000	10.000	21.000	6.000	7.7143	1.7571	0.8571	1.3286	0.4286	0.9000	0.2571
last_10	0.35	7	32.200	25.000	44.000	12.000	30.000	6.000	6.8878	1.7143	0.7653	1.3469	0.3674	0.9184	0.1837
season	0.20	7	32.200	25.000	44.000	12.000	30.000	6.000	6.8878	1.7143	0.7653	1.3469	0.3674	0.9184	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8660
predicted_ER	3.1820
predicted_ERA	6.1366
predicted_H	5.4540
predicted_HR	0.9040
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.3260
predicted_WHIP	1.5685

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.8660	1.9365	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	3.1820	1.5081	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.1366	6.1366	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.4540	4.6891	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9040	0.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.3260	3.1024	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5685	1.5685	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	8
Pitching_ERA	6.89
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.2
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	8
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691725
playerID	691725
playerName	Andrew Painter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.553	0.200	0.647	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	1.0909	0.0000	0.8182	0.2727	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	1.7500	0.1250	1.2500	0.5000	1.3750
season	0.20	19	14.000	8.000	19.000	7.000	19.000	5.1429	1.8571	0.5714	1.3571	0.5000	1.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5060
predicted_ER	0.4670
predicted_ERA	3.2081
predicted_H	1.2940
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5600
predicted_WHIP	1.3745

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5060	0.1916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4670	0.7982	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2081	3.2081	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2940	0.4899	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1090	0.0413	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5600	0.5907	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3745	1.3745	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 12

All-history rows before 20260513: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.250	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	1.8000	1.4000	0.2000	0.6000	0.8000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	1.8000	1.1000	0.2000	0.7000	0.4000	1.5000
season	0.20	11	10.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.7500	0.3750	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	3.4802
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4310
predicted_WHIP	1.2952

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5410	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4770	0.1686	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4802	3.4802	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0580	1.0205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4310	1.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2952	1.2952	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000	0.4615	0.4615	0.8077	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0667	0.2000	0.6667	0.4000	0.7333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.7667
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8770
predicted_WHIP	1.0651

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3280	0.7410	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3070	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7667	2.7667	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7370	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8770	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0651	1.0651	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tanner Banks (621383) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.688	0.000	-0.688	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.625	0.000	-1.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	2.000	0.031	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	3.000	1.688	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	4.0500	1.5000	0.4500	1.2000	0.3000	1.3500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	18.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	6.5455	2.4545	0.7273	1.6364	0.8182	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	15	16.200	9.000	23.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	4.8600	1.9200	0.5400	1.3800	0.5400	1.2600	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4660
predicted_ER	0.5360
predicted_ERA	4.5546
predicted_H	1.1850
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1760
predicted_WHIP	1.5576

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4660	0.1845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5360	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5546	4.5546	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1850	0.4692	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1760	2.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5576	1.5576	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.94
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621383
playerID	621383
playerName	Tanner Banks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.941	3.000	-0.941	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	1.000	-0.812	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	8.000	16.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	4.3200	1.3200	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_ER	0.2900
predicted_ERA	4.3601
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6730
predicted_WHIP	1.4446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2530	0.1002	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2900	0.1148	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3601	4.3601	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6120	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0242	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6730	0.8705	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4446	1.4446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: BOS

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1705

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.486	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.486	3.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.163	0.333
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.223	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.000	0.248	0.500
predicted_R	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	0.649	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.248	0.000	0.085	0.333
predicted_SO	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.541	1.000	-0.541	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.486	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.223	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.458	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	-0.101
predicted_H	0.538	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.223	-0.000
predicted_R	0.273	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.352	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.2000	0.1714	0.0000	0.0857	0.0286	0.1429
season	0.20	37	-	129.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	20.000	0.1705	0.2517	0.2481	0.1705	0.0077	0.1008	0.0853	0.1550

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4380
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.1210
predicted_H	0.5730
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2228
predicted_R	0.1960
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.2370
predicted_SO	0.6040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1670	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4860	3.4380	3.4583	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.1210	0.1955	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5730	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2230	0.2228	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.1960	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3760	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2370	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5410	0.6040	0.5773	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2933

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.250	-0.293	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	1.000	-1.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.374	-0.250
predicted_R	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.250	-0.467	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	1.000	0.175	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.475	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.694	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.512	0.012
predicted_H	0.800	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.401	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2381	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3778	0.4167	0.2500	0.0556	0.1389	0.2222	0.3056
season	0.20	40	-	150.000	44.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	20.000	33.000	0.2933	0.3743	0.4667	0.2933	0.0400	0.1200	0.1333	0.2200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.2246
predicted_BB	0.5210
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.3129
predicted_R	0.3480
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.3900
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0510	0.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6550	3.6942	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2246	0.2248	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5210	0.5123	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8210	0.7999	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1800	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3129	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4750	0.3480	0.4005	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4490	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	0.9810	0.9166	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.553	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	2.000	0.447	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.241	0.500
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	-0.526	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	1.079	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.283	0.750
predicted_SO	1.237	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.237	1.000	-0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.553	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.237	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.549	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.629	0.103
predicted_H	0.706	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.284	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1176	0.3043	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3778	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	135.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	47.000	0.2593	0.3758	0.4667	0.2593	0.0593	0.1704	0.1482	0.3482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5460
predicted_AVG	0.2085
predicted_BB	0.7020
predicted_H	0.7390
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3383
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.3997
predicted_SO	1.3170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1020	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5530	3.5460	3.5489	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2085	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.7020	0.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7390	0.7062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1910	0.1823	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3383	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4310	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4460	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.3997	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2370	1.3170	1.2838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 34

All-history rows before 20260513: 34

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1915

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.280	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.147	4.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.794	0.000	-0.794	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	1.118	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	2.000	-0.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.163	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.024
predicted_H	0.818	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.127	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.371	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.079	-0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.280

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2326	0.2826	0.4651	0.2326	0.0698	0.1628	0.0698	0.2791
season	0.20	34	-	141.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	38.000	0.1915	0.2500	0.3191	0.1915	0.0284	0.1277	0.0709	0.2695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0790
predicted_AVG	0.1966
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.2601
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3295
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1650	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2800	4.0790	4.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1966	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3350	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8020	0.8179	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1240	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2601	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.3660	0.4470	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3650	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3295	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.0510	1.0791	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connor Wong (657136) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	3.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.333	-0.261	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.333	-0.096	-0.083
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.333	-0.370	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.533	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.533	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.250	0.183
predicted_AVG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	0.010
predicted_H	0.655	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.248	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.1935	0.3056	0.2581	0.1935	0.1935	0.1290	0.1613
season	0.20	15	-	46.000	12.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.2609	0.3462	0.3696	0.2609	0.1522	0.0870	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4370
predicted_AVG	0.2157
predicted_BB	0.2880
predicted_H	0.7410
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.4860
predicted_SLG	0.2989
predicted_SO	0.6550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1560	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.4370	3.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2157	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2880	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7410	0.6547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2980	0.2485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4860	0.4275	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2989	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5330	0.6550	0.5934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	657136
playerID	657136
playerName	Connor Wong
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.290	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.290	4.000	0.710	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.250	-0.216	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.710	1.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	-0.289	-0.250
predicted_R	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.250	-0.294	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.677	0.000	0.323	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.178	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.226	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.222	-
predicted_SO	0.677	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.460	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.298	0.008
predicted_H	0.588	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.045	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.222	0.000
predicted_SO	0.757	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.1944	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.20	31	-	102.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.2157	0.2895	0.2941	0.2157	0.0098	0.0784	0.0882	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.1784
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.6410
predicted_HBP	0.0450
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2518
predicted_R	0.3330
predicted_RBI	0.1650
predicted_SLG	0.2222
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.0630	0.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2900	3.5920	3.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1780	0.1784	0.1782	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.3040	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6410	0.5880	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0450	0.0450	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0251	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2518	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2260	0.3330	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1650	0.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2220	0.2222	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6770	0.8190	0.7568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.250	-0.500	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	1.000	-2.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.750	0.250	-0.750	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.793	-0.207
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.950	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	0.072
predicted_H	1.128	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.498	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	8.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	2	-	8.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	2	-	8.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2979
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3464
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.4694
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.3460	0.7931	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8410	3.9497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.0718	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.1440	1.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0922	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3464	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4930	0.4978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4780	0.4725	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4694	0.4691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7840	0.5899	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2025

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.051	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	3.000	-1.051	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.333	0.131	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.285	0.333	0.049	0.000
predicted_SO	1.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.410	0.000	-1.410	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.051	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	1.410	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.946	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	0.005
predicted_H	0.744	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.401	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	1.511	0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.051

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.5263
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	15.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2821	0.2308	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.3846
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	32.000	7.000	2.000	18.000	15.000	8.000	55.000	0.2025	0.2426	0.2848	0.2025	0.0127	0.1139	0.0506	0.3481

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.2001
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2486
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.1770
predicted_SLG	0.2722
predicted_SO	1.5820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1940	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0510	3.8720	3.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2001	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.2140	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7750	0.7440	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2486	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4120	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1770	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4100	1.5820	1.5108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.333	-0.008	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.500	-0.120	-0.250
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.333	-0.056	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.511	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.122
predicted_H	0.779	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.147	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.368	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	16.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2581	0.3699	0.3065	0.2581	0.0645	0.1452	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.2378
predicted_BB	0.2680
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3121
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.1620
predicted_SLG	0.2885
predicted_SO	0.3990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0740	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5720	3.5114	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.2680	0.3778	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8500	0.7790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3121	0.3121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4240	0.4074	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1620	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2885	0.2883	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.3990	0.3678	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Sonny Gray (543243) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.167	2.000	1.833	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.833	0.000	1.167	3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.833	4.000	-1.833	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.550	5.000	-1.350	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	2.500	2.000	2.500	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.000	8.000	23.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	3.0000	1.2083	0.3333	0.9583	0.2500	0.4167	0.0833
last_10	0.35	6	28.000	11.000	29.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	3.5357	1.2857	0.3929	1.0357	0.2500	0.5357	0.1071
season	0.20	6	28.000	11.000	29.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	3.5357	1.2857	0.3929	1.0357	0.2500	0.5357	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3020
predicted_ER	1.6780
predicted_ERA	3.5859
predicted_H	4.0230
predicted_HR	0.4460
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	2.8290
predicted_WHIP	1.2641

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.3020	2.2224	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.6780	2.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5859	3.5859	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.0230	3.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4460	0.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.8290	4.0057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2641	1.2641	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.54
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	70
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	44
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	543243
playerID	543243
playerName	Sonny Gray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.162	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-0.231	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.7241	0.2069	1.4483
season	0.20	13	12.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.7105	0.7895	0.0790	0.5526	0.2368	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_ER	0.4010
predicted_ERA	2.9515
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3840
predicted_WHIP	1.0992

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3580	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4010	0.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9515	2.9515	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9850	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3840	1.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0992	1.0992	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Tyler Samaniego (701719) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	0.200	0.215	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.8571	0.2143	0.6429	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	8.000	4.000	8.000	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059
season	0.20	13	15.000	8.000	7.000	12.000	1.0000	0.5333	0.4667	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5160
predicted_ER	0.3540
predicted_ERA	2.6321
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0840
predicted_WHIP	1.1832

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5160	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3540	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6321	2.6321	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9140	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0840	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1832	1.1832	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	701719
playerID	701719
playerName	Tyler Samaniego
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-0.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	19.000	2.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.8478	0.3913	1.2391	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.4800
predicted_ERA	4.3178
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0350
predicted_WHIP	1.2907

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3230	0.1252	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4800	0.7985	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3178	4.3178	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9670	0.9872	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1480	0.6698	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0350	1.0136	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2907	1.2907	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.733	0.000	-0.733	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.860	1.000	0.140	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.867	1.000	-0.867	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	3.8571	1.9286	0.4286	0.8571	1.0714	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	7.000	6.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	1.3448	0.2069	0.7241	0.6207	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	15	15.000	6.000	11.000	7.000	13.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.7333	0.4667	0.8667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_ER	0.4210
predicted_ERA	3.7934
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9810
predicted_WHIP	1.4158

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5340	0.2058	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4210	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7934	3.7934	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8820	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9810	0.3781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4158	1.4158	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_PHI@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Justin Slaten (686580) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	1.000	-0.620	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	1.3846
last_10	0.35	5	4.100	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	1.3846
season	0.20	5	4.100	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	1.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	3.5849
predicted_H	0.6220
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7310
predicted_WHIP	1.2605

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2800	0.7915	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2850	0.0825	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5849	3.5849	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6220	0.8905	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7310	0.9221	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2605	1.2605	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	686580
playerID	686580
playerName	Justin Slaten
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260513_SD@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.622845, "home_win_probability": 0.622845, "away_win_probability": 0.377155, "predicted_score_text": "SD 1 - 5 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "SD 1 - 5 MIL", "confidence": 0.622845, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 1 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SD 2 - 6 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 1 - 5 MIL	MIL	0.623	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 2 - 6 MIL	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	5-5	0.500	3.30	3.40	-1	1L	cold	strong
Home MIL	8-2	0.800	5.40	2.40	30	5W	hot	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	SD @ MIL	4 - 6	MIL	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	1	-	-	-	-
Game target MIL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	34	9	0	0	1	1	9
Player finalized MIL	34	9	6	0	4	3	9
Player model fractional SD	32.11	6.46	3.20	0.96	3.35	2.54	8.24
Player model fractional MIL	33.39	8.12	5.04	0.86	4.76	3.83	7.00
Simulation box SD	32	5	2	0	2	2	6
Simulation box MIL	31	7	6	0	6	4	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Michael King	3.20	3	1	4	1	3.20	1.12	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1.10	0	1	1	1	4.71	1.20	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.40	1.21	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Bradgley Rodriguez	1	1	0	1	0	3.19	1.00	-
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1	3	1	2	2	3.46	1.20	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.40	1.19	True
Home MIL	Starter	Jacob Misiorowski	4.10	0	3	3	1	2.92	1.07	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.63	1.29	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Grant Anderson	1.10	1	1	1	0	4.35	1.31	-
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.74	1.19	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1	2	0	2	1	3.45	1.14	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	1	0	1	0	0	3.41	1.21	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1929

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.590	4.000	0.410	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.250	-0.193	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.250	-0.293	-0.250
predicted_R	0.564	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.250	-0.350	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	2.000	-0.974	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.590	-
predicted_AVG	0.142	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.692	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	-0.138
predicted_H	0.507	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.157

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.137 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1429	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	14.000	0.1053	0.1667	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790	0.3684
season	0.20	39	-	140.000	27.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	21.000	38.000	0.1929	0.2927	0.3500	0.1929	0.0429	0.1429	0.1500	0.2714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7640
predicted_AVG	0.1416
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.5330
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.2004
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.2982
predicted_SO	1.2420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0460	0.0697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5900	3.7640	3.6917	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1420	0.1416	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.3020	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5330	0.5068	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1800	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2004	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.4430	0.4933	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4020	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2982	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	1.2420	1.1307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	-0.200	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.250	-0.240	-0.250
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	2.000	-0.650	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.250	-0.300	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	2.000	-0.950	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.481	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.162	-0.038
predicted_H	0.826	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.000
predicted_R	0.254	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.661	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.996	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.2059	0.2222	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.2353	0.0294	0.3824
season	0.20	20	-	70.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	4.000	4.000	19.000	0.2000	0.2400	0.3000	0.2000	0.0143	0.1857	0.0571	0.2714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4640
predicted_AVG	0.2502
predicted_BB	0.1280
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.2776
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.6970
predicted_SLG	0.3570
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1700	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4640	3.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1280	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8670	0.8260	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2776	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3020	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6970	0.6608	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3570	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	1.0360	0.9955	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2208

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.080	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.949	5.000	0.051	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.029	0.250
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	0.000	0.128	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_R	0.564	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.101	0.250
predicted_SO	1.051	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	1.000	-1.051	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.080	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.903	-0.177
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.493	0.108
predicted_H	0.784	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.380	-0.184
predicted_RBI	0.239	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.080

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3636	0.4103	0.2821	0.0256	0.0769	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.20	39	-	154.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	15.000	41.000	0.2208	0.2941	0.3506	0.2208	0.0260	0.1169	0.0974	0.2662

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2006
predicted_BB	0.5700
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3083
predicted_R	0.2510
predicted_RBI	0.2320
predicted_SLG	0.2833
predicted_SO	1.0690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.1180	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0800	3.7780	3.9028	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2006	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.5700	0.4935	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.7580	0.7836	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0640	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3083	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.2510	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2320	0.2394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2833	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	1.0690	1.0616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2039

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.433	1.000	0.567	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	1.000	0.046	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.268	1.000	-0.018	-0.750
predicted_R	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	1.700	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.369	1.000	0.131	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.433	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-0.111
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.244	-0.189
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	0.105
predicted_H	0.562	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1538	0.3125	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.2308	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2667	0.1667	0.0333	0.0333	0.1333	0.2333
season	0.20	30	-	103.000	21.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	8.000	25.000	0.2039	0.2679	0.3689	0.2039	0.0291	0.0874	0.0777	0.2427

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0950
predicted_AVG	0.1843
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.2966
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.2370
predicted_SLG	0.3517
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.0690	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4330	3.0950	3.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1843	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.4540	0.3719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5710	0.5618	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2966	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.3910	0.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2370	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3517	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7190	0.7691	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	3.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.088	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.103	1.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.175	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.333	0.041	0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	0.000	-1.051	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.031	0.005
predicted_AB	3.553	-0.216
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.081
predicted_H	0.855	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.000
predicted_R	0.351	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.354	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.953	-0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.2667	0.2667	0.1333	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3250	0.3143	0.2286	0.0571	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	36.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	41.000	0.2449	0.3254	0.2925	0.2449	0.0952	0.1225	0.2789

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.2483
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.3588
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.3500
predicted_SLG	0.3045
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0730	0.0958	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0350	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.4000	3.5527	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.6000	0.5429	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8440	0.8548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0160	0.0177	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3588	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3270	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3500	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3045	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	0.8830	0.9525	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 28

All-history rows before 20260513: 28

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2981

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.500	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.107	2.000	0.893	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.176	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.500	0.250	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.107	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.017
predicted_AB	3.770	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.091	-0.016
predicted_H	0.811	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.334	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3684	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	0.2564	0.2564	0.5128	0.2564	0.0513	0.1282	0.0000	0.2051
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	31.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	3.000	21.000	0.2981	0.3241	0.5000	0.2981	0.0289	0.1154	0.0289	0.2019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.8140
predicted_AVG	0.2256
predicted_BB	0.0790
predicted_H	0.8600
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2430
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.4470
predicted_SLG	0.4342
predicted_SO	0.9460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.2090	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0410	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.8140	3.7698	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2256	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1070	0.0790	0.0914	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8600	0.8114	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1680	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3150	0.3336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4470	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4342	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9460	0.8594	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Rodolfo Durán (660710) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.198	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.580	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.078	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.000
predicted_R	0.117	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.296	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.968	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	2.000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	2.000	0.3333
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	2.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6660
predicted_AVG	0.2034
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2545
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.3800
predicted_SLG	0.3288
predicted_SO	0.8910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1450	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6660	3.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2034	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2290	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.7450	0.5800	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0970	0.0780	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2545	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3940	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3800	0.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8910	0.9675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	660710
playerID	660710
playerName	Rodolfo Durán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	-0.718	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.250	-0.085	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.250	-0.407	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.692	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	1.308	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.723	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	-0.120
predicted_H	0.799	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.069	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.440	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	0.180

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	38.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	18.000	16.000	27.000	0.2621	0.3354	0.4069	0.2621	0.0414	0.1448	0.1103	0.1862

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7270
predicted_AVG	0.2279
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2676
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3287
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1460	0.1173	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.7270	3.7233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.2050	0.2904	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8490	0.7995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0688	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4250	0.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3600	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	1.0010	0.8723	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.546	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	0.008
predicted_H	0.740	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2703	0.5833	0.2500	0.0833	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	0.2581	0.2923	0.5161	0.2581	0.0645	0.1452	0.0323	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6410
predicted_AVG	0.2236
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_H	0.8140
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.2525
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.4375
predicted_SO	0.7640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0950	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0370	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.6410	3.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2236	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1260	0.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8140	0.7396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2040	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2525	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4040	0.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4710	0.4270	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4375	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7640	0.6364	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Michael King (650633) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.500	2.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	1.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.500	1.000	0.500	3.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.650	6.000	-2.450	-2.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	5.625	6.000	-4.625	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	8.000	16.000	12.000	30.000	3.000	2.4828	0.9655	0.2759	0.5517	0.4138	1.0345	0.1035
last_10	0.35	8	45.200	14.000	28.000	20.000	45.000	4.000	2.7591	1.0511	0.3066	0.6131	0.4380	0.9854	0.0876
season	0.20	8	45.200	14.000	28.000	20.000	45.000	4.000	2.7591	1.0511	0.3066	0.6131	0.4380	0.9854	0.0876

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9860
predicted_ER	1.7400
predicted_ERA	3.1984
predicted_H	3.4900
predicted_HR	0.5400
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8760
predicted_WHIP	1.1181

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9860	1.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.7400	2.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1984	3.1984	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.4900	3.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5400	0.2633	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.8760	2.8896	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1181	1.1181	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	70

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	54
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	650633
playerID	650633
playerName	Michael King
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	0.100	0.128	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	-0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	6.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9429	0.4286	0.6000	0.3429	1.5429	0.1714
season	0.20	18	21.000	13.000	22.000	5.000	26.000	2.000	5.5714	1.2857	0.6190	1.0476	0.2381	1.2381	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_ER	0.6620
predicted_ERA	4.7126
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5260
predicted_WHIP	1.2026

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4040	0.7498	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6620	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7126	4.7126	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1170	1.0491	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1800	0.0756	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5260	1.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2026	1.2026	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	2.000	-0.278	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.100	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.111	4.000	-1.111	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	2.0625
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.5806	0.3871	1.7419
season	0.20	18	18.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	38.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.3750	0.2679	2.0357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	3.4010
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6430
predicted_WHIP	1.2075

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4840	0.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4500	0.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4010	3.4010	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9540	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6430	1.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2075	1.2075	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.6875	0.3750	0.1875	0.3750	0.0000	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	2.4545	0.7273	0.2727	0.4546	0.2727	0.4546
season	0.20	18	20.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.7258	0.2419	0.7258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	3.1938
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7770
predicted_WHIP	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2730	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3550	0.7303	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1938	3.1938	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7290	0.8867	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7770	0.3249	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0020	1.0020	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	2.545	3.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.545	0.000	1.455	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.882	0.200	0.118	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.5294	0.5294	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	0.8438	0.7500	0.0938	0.4688	0.2812	1.3125	0.0938
season	0.20	11	11.100	5.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	3.9706	1.0588	0.4412	0.5294	0.5294	1.4118	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_ER	0.3840
predicted_ERA	3.4574
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1130
predicted_WHIP	1.2043

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3990	1.4256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3840	2.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4574	3.4574	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8050	1.5713	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0463	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1130	1.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2043	1.2043	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.97
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.869	1.000	-0.669	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	13	12.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.5000	0.8333	0.1667	0.5833	0.2500	0.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	3.4004
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6110
predicted_WHIP	1.1903

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.0997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1067	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4004	3.4004	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6480	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6110	0.8584	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1903	1.1903	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: MIL

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2966

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.028	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	3.000	-0.028	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.333	-0.047	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.194	1.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	-0.122	-0.250
predicted_R	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.611	1.000	0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.667	0.086	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.528	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	1.000	0.472	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.028	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.611	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.846	-0.182
predicted_AVG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	0.021
predicted_H	1.163	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	-0.000
predicted_R	0.565	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.713	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.620	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.028

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4091	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.3846	0.4565	0.5128	0.3846	0.0256	0.2564	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	43.000	8.000	3.000	26.000	22.000	17.000	19.000	0.2966	0.3720	0.4138	0.2965	0.0207	0.1793	0.1172	0.1310

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7160
predicted_AVG	0.3136
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.4008
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.7150
predicted_SLG	0.4170
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2010	0.2097	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0280	3.7160	3.8456	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3136	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.5070	0.4925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1650	1.1629	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4008	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6110	0.5330	0.5654	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7150	0.7129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4170	0.4170	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5280	0.6850	0.6198	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3037

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.500	-0.054	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.806	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.806	0.000	-0.806	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.139	2.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.424	0.500	-0.174	-0.250
predicted_R	0.861	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.861	0.000	0.139	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.694	2.000	-0.694	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.750	-0.269	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.944	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.806	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.399	-
predicted_R	0.861	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.836	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.000
predicted_BB	0.652	-0.154
predicted_H	1.184	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.399	-0.000
predicted_R	0.777	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.599	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.000
predicted_SO	0.845	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	6.000	0.3846	0.4783	0.6154	0.3846	0.0513	0.1795	0.1795	0.1538
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	31.000	29.000	34.000	0.3037	0.4242	0.5185	0.3037	0.0444	0.1852	0.2148	0.2519

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8970
predicted_AVG	0.3171
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	1.2360
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3989
predicted_R	0.7180
predicted_RBI	0.6260
predicted_SLG	0.5211
predicted_SO	0.7750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2350	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0070	0.0157	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8970	3.8360	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3171	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8060	0.5420	0.6516	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2360	1.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1820	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3990	0.3989	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8610	0.7180	0.7773	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6260	0.5986	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5211	0.5211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	0.7750	0.8451	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	2.000	0.600	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.500	-0.131	-0.250
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	-0.221	0.250
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.494	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.374	-0.026
predicted_H	0.770	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.193	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.731	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.20	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.2404
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.1930
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3366
predicted_R	0.6280
predicted_RBI	0.6180
predicted_SLG	0.4259
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1890	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6350	3.4943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2404	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3360	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8740	0.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1930	0.1930	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1560	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3366	0.3368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6280	0.7309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.6180	0.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4259	0.4260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7450	0.6582	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2255

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	4.000	-0.517	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	-0.225	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.621	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.621	0.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	-0.094	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.552	1.000	-0.552	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.759	0.000	-0.759	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	-0.333	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.517	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.517	3.000	-0.517	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.621	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.552	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.226	-
predicted_SO	1.517	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.684	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	-0.157
predicted_H	0.596	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.537	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.499	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1429	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	0.1750	0.2609	0.2000	0.1750	0.0000	0.0750	0.1000	0.3750
season	0.20	29	-	102.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	22.000	16.000	18.000	44.000	0.2255	0.3443	0.3333	0.2255	0.0098	0.2157	0.1765	0.4314

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.1716
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2405
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.4510
predicted_SLG	0.2256
predicted_SO	1.4860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.0980	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0090	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.8110	3.6836	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1716	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6210	0.3440	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6540	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2405	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5520	0.5250	0.5367	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4510	0.4116	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2260	0.2256	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5170	1.4860	1.4994	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2024

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	3.000	-1.231	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.667	-0.202	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.654	2.000	-0.654	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	1.000	-0.038	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.500	0.067	-0.167
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	2.000	-0.423	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	1.667	-0.250	-1.667
predicted_SO	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.731	0.000	0.269	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.731	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.058
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.281	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.245	-0.063
predicted_H	0.717	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2258	0.2778	0.3548	0.2258	0.0323	0.2258	0.0968	0.1935
season	0.20	26	-	84.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	12.000	8.000	19.000	0.2024	0.2660	0.2500	0.2024	0.0119	0.1310	0.0952	0.2262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3230
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.2732
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.3981
predicted_SO	0.7490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.1430	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.3230	3.2814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.1930	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7810	0.7172	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1310	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.5020	0.4839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6480	0.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3981	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7310	0.7490	0.7409	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

System season_avg: 0.3460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3462

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.480	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.333	4.000	-1.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.346	0.250	-0.346	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.250	-0.143	0.000
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.462	0.250	-0.462	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.374	-0.126
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	4.310	-0.170
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	-0.033
predicted_H	1.049	-0.041
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.217	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.557	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.480

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.2727	0.2273	0.1364	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.35	6	-	26.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3462	0.3929	0.4615	0.3462	0.1154	0.0769	0.1923
season	0.20	6	-	26.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3462	0.3929	0.4615	0.3462	0.1154	0.0769	0.1923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	4.0850
predicted_AVG	0.2437
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2925
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.3480
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2080	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4800	4.0850	4.3096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2437	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2560	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	0.9950	1.0490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0670	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2925	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2830	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5260	0.5567	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3480	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9140	0.8680	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.346

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1900

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.296	3.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.296	0.000	2.704	3.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.704	4.000	0.296	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.560	0.500
predicted_BB	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.704	1.000	2.296	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.482	0.500
predicted_R	0.407	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	1.000	0.593	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	3.593	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.270	0.250	1.230	1.250
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.704	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.090
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.654	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	0.059
predicted_H	0.634	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	0.460	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	3.000	3.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.2703	0.2162	0.1622	0.1351	0.0811
season	0.20	27	-	100.000	19.000	8.000	11.000	11.000	10.000	12.000	0.1900	0.2679	0.2700	0.1900	0.1100	0.1000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6150
predicted_AVG	0.1830
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2810
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.3950
predicted_SLG	0.2423
predicted_SO	0.4720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2960	0.1360	0.2063	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7040	3.6150	3.6541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1830	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.4750	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6610	0.6342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.4960	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3950	0.3796	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2423	0.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.4720	0.4597	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	3
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.742	3.000	-0.742	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.667	0.057	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.032	2.000	-0.032	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.750	0.141	-0.250
predicted_R	0.742	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.742	1.000	0.258	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.645	0.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	1.000	-0.149	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.871	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	0.000	-0.871	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.742	-
predicted_AVG	0.332	-
predicted_BB	0.484	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.742	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	0.063
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.595	-0.147
predicted_AVG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.059
predicted_H	1.137	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.000
predicted_R	0.742	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.557	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.4375	0.5263	0.7500	0.4375	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	9.000	0.2857	0.4186	0.4571	0.2857	0.0286	0.1714	0.2286	0.2571
season	0.20	31	-	116.000	32.000	6.000	6.000	20.000	23.000	15.000	27.000	0.2759	0.3588	0.4828	0.2759	0.0517	0.1724	0.1293	0.2328

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4850
predicted_AVG	0.3319
predicted_BB	0.5880
predicted_H	1.1570
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.4272
predicted_R	0.7420
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.5569
predicted_SO	0.8520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.3050	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7420	3.4850	3.5952	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3320	0.3319	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4840	0.5880	0.5434	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1570	1.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1580	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4272	0.4271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7420	0.7420	0.7420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5080	0.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5569	0.5569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	0.8520	0.8601	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.515	4.000	0.485	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	-0.207	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.250	-0.299	-0.250
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	1.000	-0.515	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	2.000	-0.364	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.302	0.250	-0.302	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.692	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.073
predicted_H	0.866	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.307	-0.000
predicted_R	0.528	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.457	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.451	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.2703	0.3250	0.4324	0.2703	0.0541	0.1351	0.0811	0.0541
season	0.20	32	-	116.000	24.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	17.000	13.000	15.000	0.2069	0.2923	0.3017	0.2069	0.0259	0.0862	0.1121	0.1293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2525
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.3422
predicted_SO	0.4380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0440	0.0517	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.7430	3.6924	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2525	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.2790	0.3335	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9450	0.8656	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0960	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3069	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5250	0.5276	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5000	0.4571	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.4380	0.4513	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jacob Misiorowski (694819) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.125	2.000	-1.125	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	3.125	2.000	-0.125	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.412	6.000	-1.312	-1.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	8.750	11.000	-5.750	-8.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	6.000	17.000	8.000	42.000	2.000	1.9518	0.9036	0.2169	0.6145	0.2892	1.5181	0.0723
last_10	0.35	8	44.000	12.000	25.000	17.000	70.000	4.000	2.4545	0.9545	0.2727	0.5682	0.3864	1.5909	0.0909
season	0.20	8	44.000	12.000	25.000	17.000	70.000	4.000	2.4545	0.9545	0.2727	0.5682	0.3864	1.5909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7460
predicted_ER	1.6490
predicted_ERA	2.9159
predicted_H	3.7150
predicted_HR	0.4980
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	6.7020
predicted_WHIP	1.0732

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7460	1.3637	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6490	0.8039	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9159	2.9159	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.7150	3.3486	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4980	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.7020	4.8047	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0732	1.0732	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	11
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694819
playerID	694819
playerName	Jacob Misiorowski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.221	1.000	-0.121	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.158	3.000	-1.158	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	1.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.000	1.0385	1.1538	0.1154	0.4615	0.6923	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	1.000	8.000	10.000	22.000	0.000	0.6750	1.3500	0.0750	0.6000	0.7500	1.6500	0.0000
season	0.20	19	26.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	41.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3077	0.2308	0.7308	0.5769	1.5769	0.0385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7570
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	2.6349
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.7880
predicted_WHIP	1.2854

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7570	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.1827	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6349	2.6349	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0550	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7880	1.3485	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2854	1.2854	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_ER	0.5280
predicted_ERA	4.3538
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0500
predicted_WHIP	1.3138

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3150	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5280	0.8122	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3538	4.3538	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1180	1.0470	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2500	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0500	1.0199	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3138	1.3138	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.163	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.188	3.000	-0.188	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.4000
season	0.20	15	15.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_ER	0.5030
predicted_ERA	3.7420
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3460
predicted_WHIP	1.1883

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3960	0.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5030	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7420	3.7420	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0400	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0378	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3460	1.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1883	1.1883	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	1.000	0.706	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	1.647	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	1.353	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	2.0000	0.7778	0.2222	0.3333	0.4444	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	17	15.100	6.000	11.000	5.000	16.000	1.000	3.5217	1.0435	0.3913	0.7174	0.3261	1.0435	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_ER	0.3830
predicted_ERA	3.4493
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9770
predicted_WHIP	1.1376

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3880	0.7628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3830	1.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4493	3.4493	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7500	1.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9770	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1376	1.1376	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SD@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.824	2.000	-0.824	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.047	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	0.000	-0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.5625	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	17	19.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	21.000	1.000	1.8947	1.2632	0.2105	0.5263	0.7368	1.1053	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	3.4138
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9510
predicted_WHIP	1.2125

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5090	0.2084	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1552	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4138	3.4138	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7030	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9510	0.9799	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2125	1.2125	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260513_SEA@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.536922, "home_win_probability": 0.463078, "away_win_probability": 0.536922, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence": 0.536922, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 6 - 3 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SEA 5 - 4 HOU	SEA	0.537	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SEA 6 - 3 HOU	SEA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SEA	4-6	0.400	3.60	3.90	-3	1W	average	average
Home HOU	4-6	0.400	2.90	3.90	-10	3L	cold	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	SEA @ HOU	3 - 1	SEA	2	close
2026-04-13	HOU @ SEA	2 - 6	SEA	4	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	1 - 6	SEA	5	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	7 - 8	SEA	1	close
2026-04-11	HOU @ SEA	6 - 9	SEA	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SEA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SEA	32	9	4	0	5	1	9
Player finalized HOU	32	8	2	0	1	1	9
Player model fractional SEA	31.71	7.17	4.39	1.18	4.35	3.36	8.63
Player model fractional HOU	31.80	7.07	3.82	1.02	3.05	2.39	8.10
Simulation box SEA	37	10	6	1	6	3	5
Simulation box HOU	38	11	3	2	3	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SEA	Starter	Bryce Miller	3.20	2	2	6	1	4.20	1.32	True
Away SEA	Starter	Logan Gilbert	5.10	1	0	1	0	3.79	1.24	-
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Alex Hoppe	1.10	0	1	0	1	4.74	1.33	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	1.10	0	0	1	1	4.03	1.25	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	0	1	1	0	2.91	0.93	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1	0	1	1	0	4.15	1.41	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Josh Simpson	0.20	1	1	2	0	4.56	1.30	True
Home HOU	Starter	Lance McCullers Jr.	3.20	3	3	6	2	6.96	1.49	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	2.10	0	1	0	0	3.54	1.27	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	1	0	0	0	0	3.72	1.36	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1	1	0	2	0	4.30	1.46	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	2	1	2	1	4.03	1.21	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Steven Okert	0.20	1	1	1	0	5.03	1.47	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SEA

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.488	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.488	4.000	0.512	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	-0.003	0.250
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	1.000	-0.326	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.884	0.000	0.116	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.070	0.000	-0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.200	-0.081	0.050
predicted_R	0.465	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.465	0.000	-0.465	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.000	-0.117	0.250
predicted_SO	0.907	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.907	0.000	-0.907	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.488	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.465	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	0.907	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.436	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	0.011
predicted_H	0.506	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.241	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.282	-0.000
predicted_R	0.276	-0.189
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.216	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.883	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	12.000	0.1765	0.2821	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0882	0.0882	0.3529
season	0.20	43	-	150.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	20.000	14.000	39.000	0.2533	0.3314	0.3667	0.2533	0.0200	0.1467	0.0933	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.1562
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HBP	0.2410
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2817
predicted_R	0.1430
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.2156
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1400	0.1070	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4880	3.3990	3.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1562	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.3440	0.3366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5310	0.5058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2410	0.2410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2817	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4650	0.1430	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4000	0.3793	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2156	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9070	0.8660	0.8830	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2577

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.233	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.233	3.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.333	-0.258	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	1.000	-0.233	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.600	-0.327	-0.600
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.536	0.333	-0.536	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.267	0.000	-0.267	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.233	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.970	-
predicted_SLG	0.545	-
predicted_SO	1.267	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.127	-0.106
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.290	0.057
predicted_H	0.651	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.294	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.089
predicted_RBI	1.014	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000
predicted_SO	1.199	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2308	0.3750	0.6923	0.2308	0.1538	0.5385	0.1538	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.1724	0.2727	0.4828	0.1724	0.1035	0.3448	0.1035	0.3793
season	0.20	30	-	97.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	21.000	14.000	7.000	38.000	0.2577	0.3271	0.5361	0.2577	0.0722	0.2165	0.0722	0.3917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.0430
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.3060
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.6270
predicted_RBI	1.0490
predicted_SLG	0.5454
predicted_SO	1.1450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0510	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0070	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2330	3.0430	3.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.3350	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6750	0.6507	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3060	0.2945	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.6270	0.5562	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9700	1.0490	1.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5450	0.5454	0.5452	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2670	1.1450	1.1990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 27

All-history rows before 20260513: 27

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.852	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.852	4.000	0.148	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.061	0.083
predicted_BB	0.259	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	1.000	0.852	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	0.167	0.300
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.630	5.000	1.370	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.519	1.000	0.814	0.333
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.852	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.085
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.880	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.303	0.044
predicted_H	0.693	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.148	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.425	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.5000	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.2593	0.3226	0.4074	0.2593	0.0370	0.2593	0.1111	0.3704
season	0.20	27	-	77.000	21.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5195	0.2727	0.0520	0.2208	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2543
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3234
predicted_R	0.4090
predicted_RBI	0.8700
predicted_SLG	0.4518
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.1030	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8520	2.9040	2.8802	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2543	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.3410	0.3034	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7380	0.6931	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1550	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3234	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4090	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8700	0.8196	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4518	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9700	0.8820	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Leo Rivas (660844) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.1380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1379

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	0.966	1.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.750	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.138	0.000	0.612	0.750
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	3.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.414	0.000	2.586	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.474	0.250
predicted_R	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	0.000	0.759	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.172	0.000	1.828	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.215	1.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.184	0.000	1.066	1.250
predicted_SO	1.069	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.069	0.000	-1.069	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.215	-
predicted_SO	1.069	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	0.047
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	2.937	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.043
predicted_H	0.368	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.163	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.268	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.098	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.009	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.123 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	3.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.1667	0.0833	0.0000	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.1481	0.1111	0.0000	0.1482	0.4074
season	0.20	29	-	87.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	14.000	31.000	0.1379	0.2762	0.1839	0.1379	0.0575	0.1609	0.3563

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	2.8860
predicted_AVG	0.1351
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.3900
predicted_HBP	0.1630
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2784
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.1050
predicted_SLG	0.2149
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1540	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0080	0.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.8860	2.9366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1351	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.4050	0.4396	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.3900	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1630	0.1630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2784	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.2900	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1050	0.0983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2150	0.2149	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0690	0.9610	1.0089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.138

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	660844
playerID	660844
playerName	Leo Rivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2468

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	5.000	0.050	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.200	0.003	0.050
predicted_BB	0.325	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	0.000	0.675	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.975	1.000	0.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.200	0.094	0.200
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.200	-0.117	0.050
predicted_SO	0.675	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	0.675	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.019	0.069
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.052
predicted_H	1.198	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.401	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000
predicted_SO	0.558	-0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5238	0.3333	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3415	0.3721	0.4634	0.3415	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.1220
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	39.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	13.000	27.000	0.2468	0.3064	0.3671	0.2468	0.0316	0.1266	0.0823	0.1709

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0680
predicted_AVG	0.3078
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.2520
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3478
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.4600
predicted_SO	0.4760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1800	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	4.0680	4.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3078	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.2360	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2520	1.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1450	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3478	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4720	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5330	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4600	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6750	0.4760	0.5581	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.1610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1613

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.117	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.161	0.500	0.339	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	0.538	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.641	2.000	1.359	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.600	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	3.000	0.590	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.500	0.177	0.000
predicted_SO	1.385	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.385	1.000	-1.385	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.117	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.166	-
predicted_SO	1.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.969	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.117	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.041
predicted_H	0.441	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.169	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.000
predicted_SO	1.396	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.111 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	0.0500	0.1333	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.0250	0.1000	0.4250
season	0.20	39	-	155.000	25.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	16.000	18.000	54.000	0.1613	0.2457	0.3226	0.1613	0.0452	0.1097	0.1161	0.3484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9660
predicted_AVG	0.1166
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	0.4620
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.1963
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.1760
predicted_SLG	0.1662
predicted_SO	1.4030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0450	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	3.9660	3.9693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1170	0.1166	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3930	0.4214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4620	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1963	0.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.4620	0.4406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1760	0.1694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1660	0.1662	0.1661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3850	1.4030	1.3956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.161

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3032

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	2.000	-0.256	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.023	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.023	0.000	-0.023	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.415	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.093	4.000	-1.093	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.093	1.000	-0.093	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.484	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_R	0.721	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.721	4.000	0.279	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.372	3.000	0.628	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.607	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.465	2.250	-0.465	-2.250
predicted_SO	0.977	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.977	0.000	1.023	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.023	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.415	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.484	-
predicted_R	0.721	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.607	-
predicted_SO	0.977	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.272	0.016
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.010
predicted_AB	3.682	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.415	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.132
predicted_H	1.441	0.161
predicted_HBP	0.348	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.484	0.000
predicted_R	0.868	0.147
predicted_RBI	0.517	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.607	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.391 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.412)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	5.000	0.5789	0.6364	0.8421	0.5789	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	0.3514	0.4286	0.4865	0.3513	0.0270	0.1081	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	43	-	155.000	47.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	31.000	17.000	42.000	0.3032	0.3889	0.4645	0.3032	0.0258	0.1032	0.1097	0.2710

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7360
predicted_AVG	0.4155
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	1.5530
predicted_HBP	0.3480
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4843
predicted_R	0.9700
predicted_RBI	0.5570
predicted_SLG	0.6067
predicted_SO	0.9760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2830	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0230	0.0060	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.7360	3.6822	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4150	0.4155	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.1710	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.5530	1.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3480	0.3480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4840	0.4843	0.4842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7210	0.9700	0.8678	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5570	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6070	0.6067	0.6068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9770	0.9760	0.9764	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	4
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.977	5.000	1.023	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.070	0.000	-1.070	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.332	0.000	-0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.442	0.000	-0.442	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.023	2.000	-0.023	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.977	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.326	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.558	-
predicted_SO	1.023	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.036	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.054
predicted_H	1.171	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.276	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.558	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.977

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.6667	0.3333	0.0952	0.0952	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	11.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.5610	0.2927	0.0732	0.0732	0.0488	0.2683
season	0.20	43	-	171.000	46.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	22.000	14.000	44.000	0.2690	0.3316	0.4386	0.2690	0.0409	0.1111	0.0819	0.2573

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0760
predicted_AVG	0.2976
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.2130
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2870
predicted_OBP	0.3386
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.5579
predicted_SO	1.0890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.1950	0.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9770	4.0760	4.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2976	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3260	0.2350	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2130	1.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2870	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3386	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6440	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3890	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5580	0.5579	0.5579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0230	1.0890	1.0620	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 34

All-history rows before 20260513: 34

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2017

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.333	0.198	0.067
predicted_BB	0.824	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.824	2.000	-0.824	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	1.000	1.294	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.600	0.038	-0.200
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	2.000	-0.382	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.333	0.072	0.067
predicted_SO	0.676	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.824	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.288	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.623	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.765	-0.059
predicted_H	0.700	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.468	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.288	0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=26.0, weight=0.186, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	0.1944	0.3409	0.3611	0.1944	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.1667
season	0.20	34	-	119.000	24.000	3.000	4.000	13.000	20.000	28.000	23.000	0.2017	0.3624	0.3277	0.2017	0.0336	0.1092	0.2353	0.1933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6170
predicted_AVG	0.1936
predicted_BB	0.7220
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.3300
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.2883
predicted_SO	0.6540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0440	0.0625	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.6170	3.6225	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1936	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8240	0.7220	0.7649	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0980	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3300	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.5520	0.5671	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4670	0.4683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2880	0.2883	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.6540	0.6633	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Bryce Miller (682243) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 0

All-history rows before 20260513: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3930
predicted_ER	1.7120
predicted_ERA	4.2026
predicted_H	3.4420
predicted_HR	0.4740
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5140
predicted_WHIP	1.3186

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3930	1.0894	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.7120	1.9345	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2026	4.2026	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	3.4420	5.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4740	1.6528	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.5140	2.3444	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3186	1.3186	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Logan Gilbert (669302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	0.000	-1.333	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	5.333	1.000	-4.333	0.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.478	6.000	-0.378	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	5.778	9.000	-5.778	-9.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	10.000	26.000	6.000	27.000	6.000	3.4177	1.2152	0.3797	0.9873	0.2278	1.0253	0.2278
last_10	0.35	9	50.000	21.000	48.000	10.000	52.000	8.000	3.7800	1.1600	0.4200	0.9600	0.2000	1.0400	0.1600
season	0.20	9	50.000	21.000	48.000	10.000	52.000	8.000	3.7800	1.1600	0.4200	0.9600	0.2000	1.0400	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4910
predicted_ER	2.2790
predicted_ERA	3.7873
predicted_H	5.2160
predicted_HR	0.9530
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.4430
predicted_WHIP	1.2385

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.4910	0.7442	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2790	1.6384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7873	3.7873	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	5.2160	3.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9530	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	5.4430	2.7167	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2385	1.2385	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	669302
playerID	669302
playerName	Logan Gilbert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Alex Hoppe (695380) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.200	0.000	-1.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.240	2.000	-0.140	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000
season	0.20	5	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_ER	0.7020
predicted_ERA	4.7366
predicted_H	1.2410
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4290
predicted_WHIP	1.3252

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5260	0.8502	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7020	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7366	4.7366	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2410	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4290	1.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3252	1.3252	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	695380
playerID	695380
playerName	Alex Hoppe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.882	1.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	1.000	-1.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	2.8929	0.9643	0.3214	0.7500	0.2143	1.7143	0.2143
season	0.20	17	16.000	10.000	15.000	7.000	26.000	3.000	5.6250	1.3750	0.6250	0.9375	0.4375	1.6250	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_ER	0.5390
predicted_ERA	4.0295
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4750
predicted_WHIP	1.2540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3980	0.7641	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5390	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0295	4.0295	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1120	1.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1900	0.0744	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4750	0.5779	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2540	1.2540	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.221	1.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	9.000	1.000	1.7419	0.5806	0.1935	0.5806	0.0000	0.8710	0.0968
season	0.20	14	17.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	16.000	3.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.6346	0.1731	0.9231	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_ER	0.3320
predicted_ERA	2.9059
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	0.9293

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2460	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3320	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9059	2.9059	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7090	0.8836	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9620	0.9848	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9293	0.9293	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	3.000	0.190	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.9643	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	21	19.200	5.000	17.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2881	1.2203	0.2542	0.8644	0.3559	0.8644	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_ER	0.4610
predicted_ERA	4.1461
predicted_H	1.0470
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.4090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3620	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4610	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1461	4.1461	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0470	1.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9990	0.9996	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4090	1.4090	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Simpson (681006) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	-0.800	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	2	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000
season	0.20	2	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	1.5000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_ER	0.3500
predicted_ERA	4.5562
predicted_H	0.6520
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6900
predicted_WHIP	1.2951

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2430	0.0628	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3500	0.8319	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5562	4.5562	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6520	1.6514	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6900	0.9198	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2951	1.2951	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	681006
playerID	681006
playerName	Josh Simpson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: HOU

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 43

All-history rows before 20260513: 43

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3082

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.698	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.698	3.000	0.302	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	1.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.140	0.000	-1.140	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.302	0.000	-0.302	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.250	-0.213	-0.050
predicted_R	0.628	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.628	0.000	-0.628	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.674	0.000	-0.674	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.616	0.000	-0.616	0.000
predicted_SO	0.721	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.721	2.000	0.279	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.698	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.628	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.721	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.666	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.529	-0.051
predicted_H	0.826	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.000
predicted_R	0.440	-0.188
predicted_RBI	0.389	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	0.467

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.5556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.20	43	-	159.000	49.000	10.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	25.000	31.000	0.3082	0.4127	0.6164	0.3082	0.0818	0.1824	0.1572	0.1950

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6440
predicted_AVG	0.2316
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3309
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.3950
predicted_SLG	0.4253
predicted_SO	1.5100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1720	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6980	3.6440	3.6660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2316	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.4940	0.5295	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8440	0.8261	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3309	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6280	0.3110	0.4403	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3950	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4253	0.4252	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7210	1.5100	1.1882	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.320	0.500	-0.070	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	-0.070	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.541	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.560	0.500	0.440	0.500
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.541	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.598	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	0.062
predicted_H	1.037	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.224	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.472	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.541	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.4118	0.4118	0.7647	0.4118	0.1177	0.1765	0.0588
last_10	0.35	7	-	25.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3200	0.3200	0.5600	0.3200	0.0800	0.1200	0.1600
season	0.20	7	-	25.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3200	0.3200	0.5600	0.3200	0.0800	0.1200	0.1600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.3104
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	1.1290
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2430
predicted_OBP	0.3439
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.5407
predicted_SO	0.5830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0940	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6360	3.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3104	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1480	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1290	1.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2430	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3439	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4510	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5160	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5410	0.5407	0.5409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5830	0.5760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.208	0.500
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.148	0.500
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.008	0.500
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.407	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.052
predicted_H	0.648	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.321	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.722	0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2059	0.2286	0.2941	0.2059	0.0294	0.0588	0.0294	0.1765
season	0.20	19	-	65.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2923	0.3521	0.4923	0.2923	0.0461	0.1846	0.0923	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3950
predicted_AVG	0.2064
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2558
predicted_R	0.2780
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.3642
predicted_SO	0.7560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.0770	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.3950	3.4074	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2064	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.2160	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7010	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2558	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.2780	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3340	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3642	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7560	0.7218	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.649	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.649	4.000	0.351	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.233	0.500
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	1.027	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.243	0.600
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.115	0.500
predicted_SO	0.676	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	2.000	-0.676	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.649	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.715	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.041
predicted_H	0.911	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.288	-0.144
predicted_RBI	0.343	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.701	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	0.2571	0.3500	0.3429	0.2571	0.0000	0.0571	0.1143	0.2286
season	0.20	37	-	135.000	36.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	16.000	14.000	25.000	0.2667	0.3571	0.3852	0.2667	0.0222	0.1259	0.1037	0.1852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.2539
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3197
predicted_R	0.1850
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3422
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2270	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6490	3.7620	3.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3080	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9550	0.9110	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3197	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.1850	0.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3600	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.7190	0.7010	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.583	0.750
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.583	0.750
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	1.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	1.111	1.500
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.009
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.167	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	0.062
predicted_H	0.600	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.246	-0.000
predicted_R	0.213	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.356	-0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.5000
last_10	0.35	6	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.5000
season	0.20	6	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4340
predicted_AVG	0.2073
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.2457
predicted_R	0.2870
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.3358
predicted_SO	1.1270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1910	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4340	3.1675	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2073	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1610	0.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.7120	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0780	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2457	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.2870	0.2133	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3660	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3358	0.3359	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.1270	1.3560	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	4.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.052	0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	0.346	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.000	0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.157	0.250
predicted_SO	1.192	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.192	0.000	-1.192	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.211	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.192	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.074	0.036
predicted_AB	3.456	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.026
predicted_H	0.564	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.211	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.1714	0.2308	0.4000	0.1714	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.20	26	-	86.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	6.000	31.000	0.1977	0.2473	0.4070	0.1977	0.0465	0.1395	0.0698	0.3605

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.1726
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.6170
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.2108
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.3190
predicted_SLG	0.3392
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0660	0.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.1040	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.5780	3.4557	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1726	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.1840	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6170	0.5640	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1070	0.0993	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2110	0.2108	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4190	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3190	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3392	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1920	0.9320	1.0498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2566

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	3.000	1.103	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.333	-0.257	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.500	-0.339	-0.500
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.333	-0.382	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.940	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.137
predicted_H	1.193	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.670	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.144	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	39	-	152.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	26.000	18.000	32.000	0.2566	0.3392	0.3816	0.2566	0.0197	0.0592	0.1184	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8760
predicted_AVG	0.3030
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	1.1740
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3595
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.1400
predicted_SLG	0.3893
predicted_SO	0.6560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2350	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.8760	3.9396	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3030	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.2280	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.1740	1.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3595	0.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6730	0.6705	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1400	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3893	0.3892	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.6560	0.7242	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 3

All-history rows before 20260513: 3

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	-0.022	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.500	-0.100	-0.300
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.667	-0.467	-0.467
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.200	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.010
predicted_H	0.693	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.149	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.432	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.6667	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.6667	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.6667	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5990
predicted_AVG	0.2386
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3041
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.4626
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2280	0.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5990	3.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3020	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8590	0.6929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1860	0.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3041	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5480	0.6274	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5350	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4626	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9080	0.9694	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2792

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.333	-0.029	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	1.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.333	0.051	0.067
predicted_R	0.571	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.667	-0.019	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.652	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.069
predicted_H	0.598	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.108	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000
predicted_R	0.422	-0.149
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.314	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.1111	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.4167	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.20	42	-	154.000	43.000	10.000	9.000	28.000	24.000	15.000	33.000	0.2792	0.3488	0.5195	0.2792	0.0584	0.1818	0.0974	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6410
predicted_AVG	0.1713
predicted_BB	0.2390
predicted_H	0.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_OBP	0.2292
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.3138
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1740	0.2004	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6410	3.6517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1713	0.1712	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2390	0.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6240	0.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1140	0.1082	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.3170	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3780	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.8360	0.8154	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Lance McCullers Jr. (621121) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.857	3.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	4.000	6.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.429	4.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.757	2.200	-1.557	1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.286	4.000	-2.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	24.000	22.000	16.000	24.000	5.000	9.3913	1.6522	1.0435	0.9565	0.6956	1.0435	0.2174
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	28.000	31.000	20.000	37.000	5.000	7.4118	1.5000	0.8235	0.9118	0.5882	1.0882	0.1471
season	0.20	7	34.000	28.000	31.000	20.000	37.000	5.000	7.4118	1.5000	0.8235	0.9118	0.5882	1.0882	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3600
predicted_ER	3.3200
predicted_ERA	6.9552
predicted_H	4.0510
predicted_HR	0.7340
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.3570
predicted_WHIP	1.4921

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3600	2.1706	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.3200	3.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9552	6.9552	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.0510	5.0763	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7340	0.8739	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.3570	3.6431	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4921	1.4921	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	3
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	70
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	39
Pitching_Wild Pitch	3
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	621121
playerID	621121
playerName	Lance McCullers Jr.
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.214	1.000	-1.214	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.057	1.000	1.043	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	3.4615	1.3846	0.3846	1.0769	0.3077	0.6154
season	0.20	14	16.200	6.000	17.000	5.000	15.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	1.0200	0.3000	0.9000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_ER	0.7600
predicted_ERA	3.5376
predicted_H	1.8870
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.5930
predicted_WHIP	1.2708

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5710	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7600	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5376	3.5376	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8870	0.7472	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1500	0.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	2.0000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5930	1.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2708	1.2708	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	3.000	-1.000	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.882	2.000	-0.882	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.294	2.000	-1.294	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.447	2.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.294	1.000	-1.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	3.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	1.000	3.1154	1.3846	0.3462	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	4.000	10.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3696	0.2609	0.6522	0.7174	0.9130	0.0652
season	0.20	17	26.000	15.000	22.000	17.000	22.000	4.000	5.1923	1.5000	0.5769	0.8461	0.6539	0.8461	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7220
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	3.7245
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2460
predicted_WHIP	1.3612

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7220	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7245	3.7245	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1000	0.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1570	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2460	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3612	1.3612	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	0.100	0.179	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.429	0.000	-1.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.7500	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	9.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	0.9000	1.1000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	12.200	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.2368	2.2895	1.0263	1.0263	1.2632	1.5790	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_ER	0.4780
predicted_ERA	4.3012
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1330
predicted_WHIP	1.4626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5510	0.2033	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4780	0.8074	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3012	4.3012	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9120	1.5985	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1190	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1330	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4626	1.4626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.24
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	1.467	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.933	2.000	0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	6.0968	1.3548	0.6774	1.0645	0.2903	0.9677	0.0000
season	0.20	15	16.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.1875	0.5000	0.9375	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_ER	0.4470
predicted_ERA	4.0261
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9710
predicted_WHIP	1.2061

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3220	0.7344	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4470	1.3915	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0261	4.0261	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8840	1.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9710	0.9886	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2061	1.2061	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.685	1.000	-0.485	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.3077	1.8462	0.9231	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	4.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.6957	1.6957	0.5217	1.4348	0.2609	0.5217	0.1304
season	0.20	20	17.200	8.000	15.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	4.0755	1.2453	0.4528	0.8491	0.3962	0.6793	0.1132

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.4220
predicted_ERA	5.0257
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6220
predicted_WHIP	1.4650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1153	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4220	0.7677	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0257	5.0257	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8210	0.9281	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6220	0.8481	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4650	1.4650	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260513_SF@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.5128539999999999, "home_win_probability": 0.4871460000000001, "away_win_probability": 0.5128539999999999, "predicted_score_text": "SF 6 - 2 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "SF 6 - 2 LAD", "confidence": 0.5128539999999999, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "SF 6 - 2 LAD", "winner": "SF"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SF 7 - 3 LAD", "winner": "SF"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 6 - 2 LAD	SF	0.513	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 7 - 3 LAD	SF	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	4-6	0.400	3.50	5.10	-16	2W	average	weak
Home LAD	4-6	0.400	3.90	4.20	-3	3L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	SF @ LAD	9 - 3	SF	6	blowout
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	3 - 0	LAD	3	blowout
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	0 - 3	SF	3	blowout
2026-04-22	LAD @ SF	1 - 3	SF	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target LAD	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	34	9	2	0	4	0	8
Player finalized LAD	34	9	3	0	1	2	8
Player model fractional SF	34.30	8.63	3.76	0.85	4.16	2.34	7.42
Player model fractional LAD	32.54	7.25	3.92	0.87	3.37	3.36	6.41
Simulation box SF	39	12	7	3	7	4	6
Simulation box LAD	31	4	3	1	3	4	10

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Robbie Ray	2.20	2	3	3	4	3.49	1.21	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1.20	0	2	0	0	3.38	1.35	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	1.20	0	2	0	0	3.27	1.09	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	1	0	1	0	0	3.93	1.24	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Matt Gage	1	0	0	1	0	2.53	1.16	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Sam Hentges	1	1	2	0	0	3.99	1.40	True
Home LAD	Starter	Shohei Ohtani	2.20	1	2	4	2	2.53	1.05	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	1.20	1	0	4	0	5.16	1.35	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1.20	3	1	2	1	2.93	1.00	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Blake Treinen	1	1	0	1	0	4.01	1.31	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Jack Dreyer	1	0	2	0	0	2.88	1.14	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Kyle Hurt	1	1	1	1	1	3.12	1.11	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	5.000	1.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.400	-0.074	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.049	2.000	-0.049	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.400	-0.120	-0.200
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	2.000	-0.317	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.600	-0.189	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.537	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.537	1.000	-0.537	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.244	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.537	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.019
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.010
predicted_AB	4.247	0.277
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	-0.068
predicted_H	1.132	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.354	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.353	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.620	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	25.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3200	0.3462	0.4000	0.3200	0.0000	0.0800	0.0000	0.1600
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2045	0.2391	0.2500	0.2046	0.0000	0.0682	0.0227	0.1136
season	0.20	41	-	157.000	43.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	17.000	10.000	22.000	0.2739	0.3195	0.3885	0.2739	0.0127	0.0828	0.0637	0.1401

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.4420
predicted_AVG	0.2664
predicted_BB	0.1280
predicted_H	1.1830
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3037
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3526
predicted_SO	0.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.2760	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0070	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	4.4420	4.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2664	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2440	0.1280	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1830	1.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3037	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.3950	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3710	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3526	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5370	0.6780	0.6197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 5

All-history rows before 20260513: 5

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	3.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.275	0.400
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	1.800	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.176	0.000	0.224	0.400
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	2.800	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	1.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	1.288	1.600
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.345	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.220	0.020
predicted_H	0.615	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.268	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.970	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
season	0.20	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2010
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.7200
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.2588
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.3649
predicted_SO	0.9200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1080	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.5820	3.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2010	0.2010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2520	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7200	0.6147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1540	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2588	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3780	0.2677	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3650	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3649	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9200	0.9696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2405

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.762	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.762	4.000	1.238	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	-0.041	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.119	0.000	-0.119	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.250	-0.091	-0.050
predicted_R	0.381	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	0.619	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.663	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.014	0.150
predicted_SO	1.238	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.238	3.000	0.762	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.762	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.663	-
predicted_SO	1.238	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	0.086
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.665	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	0.110
predicted_H	1.158	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.278	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.271
predicted_RBI	0.572	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.663	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.219	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.308 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.8333	0.3889	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.3529	0.4250	0.7353	0.3529	0.0882	0.2059	0.1471	0.3235
season	0.20	42	-	158.000	38.000	8.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	12.000	52.000	0.2405	0.2907	0.3861	0.2405	0.0316	0.1139	0.0760	0.3291

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.3314
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.4040
predicted_R	0.8430
predicted_RBI	0.5870
predicted_SLG	0.6628
predicted_SO	1.2050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.3360	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7620	3.5970	3.6651	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3314	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.4740	0.3964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1920	1.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2840	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4040	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.8430	0.6523	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5870	0.5717	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6630	0.6628	0.6629	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2380	1.2050	1.2186	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3032

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_3B	0.051	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	0.949	1.000
predicted_AB	3.974	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	1.026	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.000	0.297	0.600
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	0.000	1.795	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.200	0.263	0.400
predicted_R	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	0.000	1.641	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.826	1.200
predicted_SO	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.002
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.023
predicted_AB	4.075	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.095
predicted_H	1.013	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.253	0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.2273	0.3200	0.2273	0.2273	0.1364	0.1364	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.2683	0.3182	0.3659	0.2683	0.0976	0.0732	0.0488
season	0.20	39	-	155.000	47.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	16.000	9.000	7.000	0.3032	0.3373	0.3742	0.3032	0.0903	0.0581	0.0452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	4.1470
predicted_AVG	0.2549
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3202
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.3189
predicted_SO	0.3060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1820	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0110	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	4.1470	4.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2549	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.3940	0.3264	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0570	1.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3202	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.4490	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4780	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3189	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1790	0.3060	0.2533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.200	-0.098	0.050
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	-0.179	0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.585	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.032
predicted_H	0.910	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.105	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.246	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.597	0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.5000	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	6	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429
season	0.20	6	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.2800
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.1050
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.3434
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.6110
predicted_SLG	0.4362
predicted_SO	0.7350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0990	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7070	3.5850	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2800	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2450	0.1990	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0380	0.9096	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1050	0.1050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1550	0.1344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3434	0.3432	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3600	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.6110	0.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4362	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7350	0.5966	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2763

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	4.000	0.103	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.026	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	1.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.089	0.150
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.487	1.000	0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.500	-0.197	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	1.000	-0.154	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.205	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.585	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.433	0.126
predicted_3B	0.032	0.006
predicted_AB	3.990	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.049
predicted_H	1.286	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.000
predicted_R	0.719	0.232
predicted_RBI	0.645	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.585	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.947	-0.207

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	0.4286	0.4783	0.7619	0.4286	0.0476	0.2381	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.5366	0.2927	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.1951
season	0.20	39	-	152.000	42.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	19.000	8.000	45.000	0.2763	0.3106	0.4474	0.2763	0.0263	0.1250	0.0526	0.2960

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5230
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	4.0560
predicted_AVG	0.3338
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_H	1.3540
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3778
predicted_R	0.8850
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.5847
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.5230	0.4335	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0360	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	4.0560	3.9898	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2050	0.2890	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.3540	1.2857	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.8850	0.7193	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6770	0.6449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5850	0.5847	0.5848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	0.7990	0.9468	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2288

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.825	4.000	1.175	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.200	-0.310	-0.200
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.274	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	0.061
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.830	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.028
predicted_H	0.635	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.266	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.274	0.000
predicted_SO	1.022	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.227)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1282	0.2093	0.2051	0.1282	0.0000	0.0513	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	40	-	153.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	40.000	0.2288	0.3099	0.3137	0.2288	0.0065	0.0915	0.1046	0.2614

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.1740
predicted_BB	0.3530
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2650
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.2741
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3040	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.8340	3.8303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1740	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3530	0.3724	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6670	0.6352	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1720	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3440	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2740	0.2741	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0370	1.0217	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2216

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.293	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.293	0.000	0.707	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.073	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.073	4.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.146	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	2.000	1.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.500	0.347	0.100
predicted_R	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	1.000	0.634	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.268	0.000	1.732	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.500	1.153	1.000
predicted_SO	1.244	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.244	1.000	-0.244	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.073	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.146	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	1.244	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.191	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.103	-0.043
predicted_H	1.226	0.136
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.073	-0.171

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.073

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3913	0.3913	0.4348	0.3913	0.0000	0.2174	0.0000	0.1739
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	10.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.1191	0.0000	0.2381
season	0.20	41	-	167.000	37.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	15.000	6.000	51.000	0.2216	0.2529	0.3473	0.2216	0.0180	0.0659	0.0359	0.3054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2730
predicted_AVG	0.3092
predicted_BB	0.0730
predicted_H	1.3210
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3235
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.3837
predicted_SO	0.9530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2930	0.2140	0.2466	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0730	4.2730	4.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1460	0.0730	0.1031	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.3210	1.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3235	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.3810	0.3748	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6340	0.5870	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3837	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2440	0.9530	1.0729	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2459

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.211	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.211	4.000	-1.211	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.254	0.500
predicted_BB	0.263	3.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	1.000	2.737	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.800	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.333	0.487	0.467
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.139	0.500
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.211	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.372	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.031
predicted_H	0.655	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	3.000	3.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.3714	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	19	-	61.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	0.2459	0.3134	0.3607	0.2459	0.0328	0.1148	0.0820	0.2131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5210
predicted_AVG	0.2082
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	0.7330
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2960
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.2982
predicted_SO	0.7520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0840	0.0691	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2110	3.5210	3.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2082	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.3230	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7330	0.6546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2960	0.2960	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.4230	0.3966	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4170	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2982	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7520	0.7193	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	3
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Robbie Ray (592662) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	4.000	1.750	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.750	1.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.562	6.000	-3.362	-3.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	5.875	7.000	-2.875	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	10.000	21.000	12.000	29.000	6.000	3.1765	1.1647	0.3529	0.7412	0.4235	1.0235	0.2118
last_10	0.35	8	45.200	14.000	32.000	18.000	47.000	8.000	2.7591	1.0949	0.3066	0.7007	0.3942	1.0292	0.1752
season	0.20	8	45.200	14.000	32.000	18.000	47.000	8.000	2.7591	1.0949	0.3066	0.7007	0.3942	1.0292	0.1752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8100
predicted_ER	1.7500
predicted_ERA	3.4894
predicted_H	3.6520
predicted_HR	0.7800
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.5110
predicted_WHIP	1.2102

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.8100	2.9324	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.7500	1.8781	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4894	3.4894	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.6520	3.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7800	0.8927	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.5110	3.7366	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2102	1.2102	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	3
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592662
playerID	592662
playerName	Robbie Ray
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.100	0.256	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	0.944	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	3.3750	1.6875	0.3750	0.7500	0.9375	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	2.000	7.000	8.000	9.000	1.000	1.4595	1.2162	0.1622	0.5676	0.6486	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	9.000	12.000	19.000	2.000	1.3966	1.0862	0.1552	0.4655	0.6207	0.9828	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7860
predicted_ER	0.5360
predicted_ERA	3.3794
predicted_H	1.1480
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2110
predicted_WHIP	1.3550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7860	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5360	0.2204	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3794	3.3794	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1480	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1870	0.0769	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2110	1.6756	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3550	1.3550	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	0.284	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	1.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_ER	0.5030
predicted_ERA	3.2691
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0580
predicted_WHIP	1.0864

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4810	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5030	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2691	3.2691	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0240	0.4154	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0580	1.6179	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0864	1.0864	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 4

All-history rows before 20260513: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.825	0.200	0.175	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.2500	0.7500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.2500	0.7500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.20	4	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.2500	0.7500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_ER	0.4370
predicted_ERA	3.9346
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.2405

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3620	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4370	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9346	3.9346	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8780	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9603	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2405	1.2405	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.624	0.100	0.376	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1250	0.0000	0.5000	0.6250	0.6250	0.0000
season	0.20	21	18.000	2.000	9.000	10.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0556	0.1111	0.5000	0.5556	0.6667	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.2500
predicted_ERA	2.5327
predicted_H	0.6720
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7520
predicted_WHIP	1.1616

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2500	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5327	2.5327	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6720	0.8676	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7520	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1616	1.1616	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Sam Hentges (656529) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 2

All-history rows before 20260513: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	1.000	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	0.7500	2.2500	1.5000
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	0.7500	2.2500	1.5000
season	0.20	2	1.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	0.7500	2.2500	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4660
predicted_ER	0.4360
predicted_ERA	3.9908
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9690
predicted_WHIP	1.4034

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4660	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4360	0.8597	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9908	3.9908	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9140	0.2274	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9690	1.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4034	1.4034	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656529
playerID	656529
playerName	Sam Hentges
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: LAD

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	2.000	-0.900	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	2.000	0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	1.000	-1.075	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.750	-0.097	-0.500
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.500	-0.436	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	1.450	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.272	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.681	-0.219
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	0.059
predicted_H	0.960	-0.010
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.148	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.376	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	0.532	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.3056	0.3902	0.5000	0.3056	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.2222
season	0.20	40	-	156.000	43.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	16.000	22.000	0.2756	0.3468	0.4359	0.2756	0.0256	0.1282	0.1026	0.1410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5270
predicted_AVG	0.2701
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3619
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.4735
predicted_SO	0.5200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.2690	0.2715	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.5270	3.6808	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2701	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.5000	0.4588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9530	0.9600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1460	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3619	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.3820	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3730	0.3759	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4735	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.5200	0.5324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	2.000	-0.897	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.379	1.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	0.000	-1.034	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.250	-0.075	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	1.000	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	0.000	1.276	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.752	-0.145
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	-0.001
predicted_H	0.839	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.281	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.338	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2500	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	0.2703	0.3333	0.3243	0.2703	0.0000	0.0811	0.1081	0.1892
season	0.20	29	-	113.000	30.000	3.000	3.000	17.000	12.000	11.000	21.000	0.2655	0.3254	0.3717	0.2655	0.0266	0.1504	0.0974	0.1858

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6420
predicted_AVG	0.2304
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2964
predicted_R	0.1810
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.2918
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1040	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.6420	3.7520	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2304	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.3770	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8390	0.8394	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0380	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2964	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.1810	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3370	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.6950	0.7075	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1622

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.111	4.000	-0.111
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.162	0.000	-0.162
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.225	0.000	-0.225
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	-0.778
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	-0.351
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	4.180	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	0.010
predicted_H	0.785	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.529	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1364	0.1739	0.2727	0.1364	0.0454	0.0909	0.0454	0.1364
last_10	0.35	9	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.1622	0.2250	0.3514	0.1622	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.20	9	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.1622	0.2250	0.3514	0.1622	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.1351

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0790
predicted_AVG	0.1882
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.7680
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.2415
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.5170
predicted_SLG	0.3422
predicted_SO	0.7100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1070	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	4.0790	4.1804	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1882	0.1881	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2440	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7680	0.7850	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1690	0.1748	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2415	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5030	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5170	0.5292	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.7100	0.6282	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Miguel Rojas (500743) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	0.000	-0.929	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.385	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.357	0.000	1.643	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.077	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.341	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.478	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	0.029
predicted_H	0.693	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.000
predicted_R	0.326	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.420	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, weight=0.160, BvP AVG=0.350)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2571	0.2778	0.4000	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.0286	0.1143
season	0.20	13	-	44.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2955	0.3111	0.4318	0.2954	0.0227	0.0909	0.0227	0.1136

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1970
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.2188
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_H	0.7830
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2496
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.3413
predicted_SO	0.4570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1970	0.2146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.5790	3.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2188	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0770	0.1380	0.1063	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7830	0.6932	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0770	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2496	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.3460	0.3263	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4160	0.3714	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3410	0.3413	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.4570	0.4196	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	500743
playerID	500743
playerName	Miguel Rojas
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	2.000	0.275	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.255	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	-0.950	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.444	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.750	-0.358	-0.750
predicted_R	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	1.000	-0.403	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.444	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	0.074
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.294	-0.431
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000
predicted_BB	0.738	0.138
predicted_H	0.851	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.444	-0.000
predicted_R	0.616	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.346	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.460	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.2727	0.5294	0.4545	0.2727	0.0000	0.0909	0.4546	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.5312	0.3125	0.0312	0.1250	0.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	38.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	28.000	24.000	35.000	0.2550	0.3580	0.4027	0.2550	0.0268	0.1275	0.1611	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9920
predicted_AVG	0.2774
predicted_BB	0.8340
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.4438
predicted_R	0.5580
predicted_RBI	0.3360
predicted_SLG	0.4599
predicted_SO	0.7000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3760	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	2.9920	3.2936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.8340	0.7377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8300	0.8506	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0576	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4440	0.4438	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.5580	0.6164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3360	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4599	0.4599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.7000	0.7720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3203

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3600

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	3.000	0.268	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.320	0.000	0.180	0.500
predicted_BB	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	0.000	0.805	2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.250	0.135	0.250
predicted_R	0.561	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.561	0.000	0.439	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.854	0.000	-0.854	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.000	0.201	0.750
predicted_SO	0.805	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.805	1.000	-0.805	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.244	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.805	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.676	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.014
predicted_H	0.890	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.241	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.637	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3659	0.6579	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316
season	0.20	41	-	153.000	49.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	10.000	33.000	0.3203	0.3653	0.5490	0.3203	0.0588	0.2288	0.0654	0.2157

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.2525
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.6570
predicted_SLG	0.4830
predicted_SO	0.5630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.0870	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.6360	3.6758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2525	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2440	0.2200	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9180	0.8898	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2490	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3174	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.4170	0.4767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6570	0.6375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4830	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8050	0.5630	0.6633	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Call (669743) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.417	0.250	-0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	1.625	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.000	0.155	0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	1.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.875	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.657	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.743	-0.132
predicted_H	0.748	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.1667	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222	0.2778
last_10	0.35	8	-	29.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	0.2759	0.4167	0.3448	0.2759	0.1035	0.2414	0.2069
season	0.20	8	-	29.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	0.2759	0.4167	0.3448	0.2759	0.1035	0.2414	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1240
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.2208
predicted_BB	0.5860
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3295
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	0.4280
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.8920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1240	0.1923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.6950	3.6571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2208	0.2209	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8750	0.5860	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8160	0.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3295	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.4820	0.5595	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4280	0.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8920	0.8150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669743
playerID	669743
playerName	Alex Call
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Santiago Espinal (669289) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 7

All-history rows before 20260513: 7

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	-1.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.333	0.318	0.167
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.182	0.333	0.485	0.333
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.182	0.333	1.818	1.667
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.304	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	0.062
predicted_H	0.660	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000
predicted_R	0.320	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	7	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.1818
season	0.20	7	-	22.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5400
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2550
predicted_R	0.3690
predicted_RBI	0.2860
predicted_SLG	0.3064
predicted_SO	0.7380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0970	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.5400	3.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2198	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1530	0.0622	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7770	0.6600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0650	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2550	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3690	0.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2860	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3062	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7380	0.6388	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669289
playerID	669289
playerName	Santiago Espinal
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2406

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.865	0.000	-0.865	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	1.189	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	2.000	-0.189	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.513	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	0.005
predicted_H	0.828	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.119	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.139	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.231	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	13.000	0.2571	0.3659	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3714
season	0.20	37	-	133.000	32.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	18.000	15.000	44.000	0.2406	0.3200	0.3684	0.2406	0.0301	0.1278	0.1128	0.3308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.2495
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.1190
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3491
predicted_R	0.2910
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.3277
predicted_SO	1.2610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1590	0.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.4530	3.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2495	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.4140	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8620	0.8275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1190	0.1190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3491	0.3491	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.2910	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1450	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3277	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	1.2610	1.2307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.167	7.000	-3.967	-4.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	7.000	8.000	-5.000	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.000	4.000	20.000	6.000	36.000	2.000	1.1613	0.8387	0.1290	0.6452	0.1935	1.1613	0.0645
last_10	0.35	6	37.000	4.000	21.000	9.000	42.000	2.000	0.9730	0.8108	0.1081	0.5676	0.2432	1.1351	0.0541
season	0.20	6	37.000	4.000	21.000	9.000	42.000	2.000	0.9730	0.8108	0.1081	0.5676	0.2432	1.1351	0.0541

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3090
predicted_ER	1.3050
predicted_ERA	2.5298
predicted_H	3.5880
predicted_HR	0.4320
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.0548

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3090	1.6835	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.3050	1.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5298	2.5298	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.5880	3.8113	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4320	0.7399	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.9540	3.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0548	1.0548	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	74

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	0.97
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	3.000	0.706	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.412	3.000	3.588	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.688	0.100	0.512	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.0000	1.6667	1.0000	1.0000	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	6.4286	1.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714	1.5714
season	0.20	17	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6050
predicted_ER	0.7570
predicted_ERA	5.1635
predicted_H	1.1780
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4010
predicted_WHIP	1.3503

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6050	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7570	0.9091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1635	5.1635	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.1780	2.9447	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4010	0.5239	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3503	1.3503	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	2.833	3.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.444	0.000	1.556	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.344	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.6531	0.6122	0.1837	0.4898	0.1225	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.4580
predicted_ERA	2.9345
predicted_H	0.9830
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4330
predicted_WHIP	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4270	0.7743	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4580	1.9988	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9345	2.9345	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9830	1.5994	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4330	1.1706	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0040	1.0040	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.938	2.000	0.062	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.675	0.200	0.325	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3750	0.3750	1.1250	0.2500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	15	12.200	3.000	11.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	2.1316	1.1842	0.2368	0.8684	0.3158	0.9474	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	4.0117
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.3059

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4060	0.7808	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0117	4.0117	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8790	0.9553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0960	0.6664	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8610	0.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3059	1.3059	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.989	1.000	0.011	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	0.842	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000	0.7895	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	11.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	2.3824	1.0588	0.2647	0.9706	0.0882	0.9706	0.0882
season	0.20	19	20.200	5.000	15.000	5.000	22.000	1.000	2.1774	0.9677	0.2419	0.7258	0.2419	1.0645	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_ER	0.3420
predicted_ERA	2.8791
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.1385

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2610	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3420	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8791	2.8791	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9550	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9990	1.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1385	1.1385	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.18
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Hurt (669165) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 10

All-history rows before 20260513: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	0.9000	0.6000	0.1000	0.5000	0.1000	1.4000
season	0.20	10	10.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	0.9000	0.6000	0.1000	0.5000	0.1000	1.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_ER	0.3470
predicted_ERA	3.1186
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.1141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3160	0.7621	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3470	0.7729	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1186	3.1186	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7980	0.9298	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0920	0.6842	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1160	1.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1141	1.1141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.90
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669165
playerID	669165
playerName	Kyle Hurt
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260513_STL@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.525958, "home_win_probability": 0.525958, "away_win_probability": 0.47404199999999996, "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence": 0.525958, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "STL 3 - 6 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	STL 3 - 5 OAK	OAK	0.526	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	STL 3 - 6 OAK	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away STL	6-4	0.600	4.10	3	11	2L	average	strong
Home OAK	5-5	0.500	5.10	4.90	2	1L	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target STL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized STL	34	8	4	0	2	1	10
Player finalized OAK	33	9	3	0	5	2	8
Player model fractional STL	33.22	7.52	4.43	0.81	3.36	3.21	8.27
Player model fractional OAK	32.24	8.22	4.63	1.34	5.40	4.00	7.94
Simulation box STL	33	4	3	2	3	6	15
Simulation box OAK	44	14	6	2	6	2	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away STL	Starter	Matthew Liberatore	4.10	3	5	10	1	4.30	1.37	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.41	1.35	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.20	0	0	0	1	4.98	1.36	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Gordon Graceffo	1	0	2	0	0	3.59	1.27	-
Away STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	0.10	0	0	0	0	3.70	1.11	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Ryne Stanek	0.10	0	2	1	0	3.56	1.23	True
Away STL	Reliever	Matt Svanson	-	-	-	-	-	5.45	1.48	-
Home OAK	Starter	J.T. Ginn	4.10	2	7	2	1	3.88	1.23	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Justin Sterner	1.20	0	1	0	0	4.16	1.13	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1.10	0	1	0	2	3.40	1.59	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.97	1.21	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1	0	1	1	2	3.46	0.95	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Mark Leiter Jr.	0.10	1	3	1	1	6.61	1.52	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: STL

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2658

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.051	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	5.000	-0.051	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.200	-0.266	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.436	0.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.200	-0.135	0.000
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.200	-0.443	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.718	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	1.000	2.282	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.051	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.436	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.054	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.089
predicted_H	0.939	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.051

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.4250	0.2250	0.0500	0.1250	0.0750	0.2500
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	42.000	10.000	6.000	30.000	21.000	17.000	28.000	0.2658	0.3352	0.4430	0.2658	0.0380	0.1899	0.1076	0.1772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0560
predicted_AVG	0.2398
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.2901
predicted_R	0.5740
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.4250
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2070	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0510	4.0560	4.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2398	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4360	0.2840	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9730	0.9388	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1800	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.5740	0.5592	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4310	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4250	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.8560	0.7992	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2452

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.010	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	4.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.500	0.005	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.525	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	2.000	0.050	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.600	0.040	-0.200
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	2.000	-0.550	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	1.250	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.010	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.343	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.929	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	-0.024
predicted_H	0.938	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.164	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.343	0.000
predicted_R	0.723	-0.078
predicted_RBI	0.664	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.010

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.2750	0.2000	0.0250	0.1500	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	40	-	155.000	38.000	5.000	8.000	22.000	32.000	21.000	32.000	0.2452	0.3602	0.4323	0.2452	0.0516	0.1419	0.1355	0.2064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.2384
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_H	0.9230
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3432
predicted_R	0.6690
predicted_RBI	0.6530
predicted_SLG	0.3753
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0470	0.0789	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0100	3.8730	3.9290	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2384	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4840	0.5008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9230	0.9381	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1600	0.1641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3430	0.3432	0.3431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.6690	0.7225	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6530	0.6640	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3753	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8080	0.8047	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3020

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.250	-0.302	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.487	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.487	1.000	0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.400	-0.182	-0.200
predicted_R	0.821	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.821	1.000	-0.821	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.577	0.250	-0.577	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.487	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.821	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	0.077
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.758	-0.063
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.534	0.047
predicted_H	1.042	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.803	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.621	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.546	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	-0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	7.000	0.3429	0.4524	0.6286	0.3429	0.0571	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	45.000	8.000	11.000	30.000	32.000	19.000	46.000	0.3020	0.3824	0.5772	0.3020	0.0738	0.2013	0.1275	0.3087

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7140
predicted_AVG	0.2906
predicted_BB	0.5670
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.3845
predicted_R	0.7910
predicted_RBI	0.6420
predicted_SLG	0.5456
predicted_SO	0.9150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3360	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7140	3.7582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2906	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4870	0.5670	0.5339	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0790	1.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2020	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3845	0.3847	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8210	0.7910	0.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6420	0.6205	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5456	0.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	0.9150	1.0241	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.909	3.000	1.091	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.062	0.250
predicted_BB	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.242	1.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.250	-0.005	0.000
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.000	0.010	0.250
predicted_SO	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.879	0.000	0.121	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.242	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	0.048
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.026	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.050
predicted_H	0.638	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.126	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.3571	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1613	0.2571	0.2903	0.1613	0.0323	0.0323	0.0968	0.2903
season	0.20	33	-	96.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	29.000	0.1875	0.2547	0.2396	0.1875	0.0104	0.0521	0.0833	0.3021

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1190
predicted_AVG	0.2273
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.1380
predicted_SLG	0.3288
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.1480	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	3.1190	3.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2273	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2420	0.3310	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7090	0.6385	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0540	0.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3087	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.5490	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1380	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	0.7050	0.7821	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.659	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.659	5.000	-0.659	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.400	-0.267	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.683	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.683	0.000	0.317	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	2.000	-0.976	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.400	-0.206	-0.200
predicted_R	0.561	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	1.000	0.439	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.420	0.400	-0.420	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.805	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.805	0.000	1.195	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.659	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.683	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	0.805	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.873	0.214
predicted_AVG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.476	-0.207
predicted_H	1.248	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.510	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.861	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.4286	0.3810	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.3415	0.3864	0.4390	0.3415	0.0000	0.0976	0.0732	0.2683
season	0.20	41	-	150.000	40.000	11.000	4.000	18.000	23.000	28.000	33.000	0.2667	0.4064	0.4200	0.2667	0.0267	0.1200	0.1867	0.2200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0210
predicted_AVG	0.3305
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	1.3290
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3875
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.4256
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.2700	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6590	4.0210	3.8732	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3305	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6830	0.3340	0.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.3290	1.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.4750	0.5101	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3450	0.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4256	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8050	0.9000	0.8612	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 31

All-history rows before 20260513: 31

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2435

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	0.290	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.257	0.500
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	0.000	1.097	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	1.871	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.227	0.500
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	1.548	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.000	1.609	2.000
predicted_SO	0.839	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	2.000	0.161	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.728	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.174	0.013
predicted_H	0.850	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.380	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.3590	0.2564	0.0000	0.1026	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	28.000	5.000	4.000	14.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2435	0.2727	0.3913	0.2435	0.0348	0.1217	0.0435	0.2261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7410
predicted_AVG	0.2395
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2764
predicted_R	0.3250
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3420
predicted_SO	0.7910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.2440	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7410	3.7275	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2395	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1840	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8960	0.8500	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2764	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.3250	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3480	0.3315	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3420	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	0.7910	0.8118	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 26

All-history rows before 20260513: 26

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	3.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.176	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.000	-0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.213	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	0.000	1.077	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.176	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.213	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.399	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.127	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.173	0.019
predicted_H	0.404	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.176	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.213	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.119 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.1389	0.1622	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.0278	0.0278	0.3333
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	24.000	0.2045	0.2526	0.3409	0.2046	0.0341	0.0909	0.0454	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4100
predicted_AVG	0.1266
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	0.4320
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.1762
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.1740
predicted_SLG	0.2130
predicted_SO	1.0170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0820	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.4100	3.3987	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1266	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1880	0.1727	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.4320	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1760	0.1762	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.2820	0.2937	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1740	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2130	0.2130	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	1.0170	0.9746	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.657	4.000	0.343	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.000	-0.090	0.200
predicted_R	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	1.257	3.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	1.000	1.743	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.657	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.371	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.623	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.035
predicted_H	0.700	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.347	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.430	0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	0.1765	0.3000	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.5882
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.2162	0.2927	0.3514	0.2162	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.4054
season	0.20	35	-	128.000	28.000	4.000	4.000	21.000	13.000	14.000	44.000	0.2188	0.2897	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.1641	0.1094	0.3438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2066
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2971
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.3143
predicted_SO	1.5560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1830	0.1539	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6570	3.5980	3.6229	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2066	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4610	0.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7430	0.6995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2971	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3710	0.3040	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3660	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3143	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.5560	1.4297	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.886	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	5.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.200	-0.250	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.343	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.200	-0.075	0.050
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.200	-0.346	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.886	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.091	0.034
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.062
predicted_H	0.760	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.783	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.886

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1905	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.3243	0.2432	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.20	35	-	136.000	34.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	16.000	12.000	30.000	0.2500	0.3158	0.3456	0.2500	0.0073	0.1177	0.0882	0.2206

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.1160
predicted_AB	3.7850
predicted_AVG	0.2124
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2602
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.3165
predicted_SO	0.7290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0870	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.1160	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8860	3.7850	3.8274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2124	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.2370	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8040	0.7604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.2900	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3910	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3165	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7290	0.7827	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Matthew Liberatore (669461) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.375	1.000	0.625	2.000
predicted_H	10.000	10.000	10.000	Pitching_H	5.500	3.000	4.500	7.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.162	6.000	-1.062	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.625	6.000	1.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	13.000	25.000	11.000	19.000	4.000	4.5000	1.3846	0.5000	0.9615	0.4231	0.7308	0.1538
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	19.000	44.000	16.000	29.000	8.000	4.0714	1.4286	0.4524	1.0476	0.3810	0.6905	0.1905
season	0.20	8	42.000	19.000	44.000	16.000	29.000	8.000	4.0714	1.4286	0.4524	1.0476	0.3810	0.6905	0.1905

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9710
predicted_ER	2.3650
predicted_ERA	4.3017
predicted_H	4.7980
predicted_HR	0.7500
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.0110
predicted_WHIP	1.3678

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9710	1.4734	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.3650	2.6904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3017	4.3017	form_only
predicted_H	10.0000	4.7980	7.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7500	0.8781	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.0110	4.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3678	1.3678	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	10
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	110

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.07
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669461
playerID	669461
playerName	Matthew Liberatore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.632	2.000	-0.632	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.400	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	0.8571	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	19	18.000	7.000	12.000	10.000	15.000	2.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.6667	0.5556	0.8333	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_ER	0.5260
predicted_ERA	3.4067
predicted_H	1.2470
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2830
predicted_WHIP	1.3543

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6330	0.2556	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5260	0.2124	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4067	3.4067	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2470	0.5035	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1970	0.0795	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2830	0.5180	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3543	1.3543	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	1.000	0.900	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.850	0.000	-0.850	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.930	1.000	0.270	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.150	0.000	-1.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.2857	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	20	20.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	23.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9500	0.3000	0.8500	0.1000	1.1500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_ER	0.7590
predicted_ERA	4.9843
predicted_H	1.4580
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4870
predicted_WHIP	1.3583

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4050	0.7532	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7590	0.3148	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9843	4.9843	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4580	0.6046	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1850	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4870	0.6167	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3583	1.3583	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.071	0.100	-0.071	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	1.412	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	2.5312	1.1250	0.2812	0.8438	0.2812	0.3750	0.0938
season	0.20	17	21.000	4.000	11.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.5238	0.4286	0.4762	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_ER	0.4110
predicted_ERA	3.5865
predicted_H	0.8830
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7290
predicted_WHIP	1.2711

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4260	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4110	0.1725	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5865	3.5865	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8830	0.3707	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7290	1.4665	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2711	1.2711	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	-0.730	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	12.000	3.000	7.0000	1.3333	0.7778	0.8889	0.4444	1.3333	0.3333
season	0.20	20	20.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	18.000	3.000	3.0984	1.0820	0.3443	0.7377	0.3443	0.8852	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	3.6960
predicted_H	0.4810
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6830
predicted_WHIP	1.1099

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2200	0.0916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2590	0.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6960	3.6960	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4810	0.2003	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6830	0.2844	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1099	1.1099	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.760	1.000	-0.660	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.5769	0.8077	1.3846	0.0000
season	0.20	20	18.000	12.000	18.000	14.000	24.000	1.000	6.0000	1.7778	0.6667	1.0000	0.7778	1.3333	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.2420
predicted_ERA	3.5565
predicted_H	0.4600
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6710
predicted_WHIP	1.2317

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2930	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2420	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5565	3.5565	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4600	0.7820	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6710	1.4634	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2317	1.2317	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Matt Svanson (694335) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	0.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_ER	-	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	1.000	1.833	2.000
predicted_H	-	3.000	-	Pitching_H	1.500	1.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_IP	-	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.250	0.200
predicted_SO	-	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	7.2000	1.6000	0.8000	1.4000	0.2000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	0.9000	0.7000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	18	19.200	21.000	27.000	13.000	19.000	5.000	9.6102	2.0339	1.0678	1.3729	0.6610	0.9661	0.2542

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	5.4532
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6340
predicted_WHIP	1.4802

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2620	0.1082	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4532	5.4532	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6650	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1280	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6340	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4802	1.4802	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	694335
playerID	694335
playerName	Matt Svanson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: OAK

Justyn-Henry Malloy (669234) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 0

All-history rows before 20260513: 0

System season_avg: 0.2441

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.015	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.567	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.365	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.813	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.106	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.414	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.941	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-
predicted_3B	0.015	-
predicted_AB	3.567	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.365	-
predicted_H	0.813	-
predicted_HR	0.106	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.414	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.007
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.004
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.018
predicted_H	0.839	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.001
predicted_R	0.478	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.427	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.006
predicted_SO	0.921	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3055
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3946
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1510	0.1800	0.1576	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0150	0.0140	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5670	3.7990	3.6198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2441	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3650	0.2840	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8130	0.9270	0.8389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1060	0.1210	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3055	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.4940	0.4785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4140	0.4720	0.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3946	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.8550	0.9214	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Michael Stefanic (683021) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 0

All-history rows before 20260513: 0

System season_avg: 0.2441

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2441

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.169	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.569	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.379	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.882	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.458	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-
predicted_3B	0.014	-
predicted_AB	3.569	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	0.882	-
predicted_HR	0.081	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.405	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.003
predicted_3B	0.014	0.000
predicted_AB	3.621	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.357	-0.022
predicted_H	0.892	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.003
predicted_R	0.466	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.005
predicted_SO	0.774	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2441
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9270
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3055
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.4720
predicted_SLG	0.3946
predicted_SO	0.8550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1690	0.1800	0.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0140	0.0140	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5690	3.7990	3.6213	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2441	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.2840	0.3574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8820	0.9270	0.8922	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0810	0.1210	0.0901	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3055	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.4940	0.4662	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4050	0.4720	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3946	0.3764	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8550	0.7739	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2540

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.346	0.600
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	2.111	3.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.291	0.600
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.460	0.000	0.140	0.600
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.078	0.022
predicted_AB	3.596	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.036
predicted_H	0.890	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.157	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.560	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.603	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.481	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.5429	0.2857	0.0571	0.2000	0.1143	0.2857
season	0.20	18	-	63.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	5.000	18.000	0.2540	0.3088	0.4603	0.2540	0.0476	0.1746	0.0794	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.2615
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.5630
predicted_RBI	0.6510
predicted_SLG	0.4809
predicted_SO	1.0190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0950	0.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0980	0.0779	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6850	3.5963	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2615	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.3480	0.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9640	0.8902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1720	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5630	0.5596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6510	0.6026	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4809	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0190	1.0099	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 24

All-history rows before 20260513: 24

System season_avg: 0.1870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1868

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3930

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.792	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.792	2.000	1.208	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.013	0.200
predicted_BB	0.542	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.542	2.000	-0.542	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.500	-0.083	-0.300
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.000	-0.163	0.200
predicted_SO	1.375	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	0.000	0.625	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.792	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.542	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.860	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.058	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.717	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.617	0.075
predicted_H	0.939	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.280	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.000
predicted_R	0.398	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.898	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.000
predicted_SO	1.211	-0.164

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.3529	0.2941	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.5526	0.2895	0.0790	0.2632	0.1579	0.3158
season	0.20	24	-	91.000	17.000	1.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	13.000	33.000	0.1868	0.2830	0.3626	0.1868	0.0549	0.1978	0.1429	0.3626

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6580
predicted_AVG	0.2651
predicted_BB	0.6770
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2870
predicted_OBP	0.3763
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.9290
predicted_SLG	0.5213
predicted_SO	1.0810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0420	0.0710	0.0581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7920	3.6580	3.7174	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2651	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5420	0.6770	0.6172	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9700	0.9390	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2870	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3763	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4170	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8600	0.9290	0.8984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5213	0.5212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.0810	1.2113	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.187

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	3.000	1.350	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.333	0.140	0.067
predicted_BB	0.975	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.975	1.000	-0.975	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	1.000	1.050	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.500	-0.016	-0.100
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	1.000	1.475	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.333	0.575	0.667
predicted_SO	1.375	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	1.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.975	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.057
predicted_3B	0.078	0.053
predicted_AB	3.759	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.814	-0.161
predicted_H	1.066	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	-0.000
predicted_R	0.684	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.616	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000
predicted_SO	1.136	-0.239

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.5263	0.3158	0.0000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2500
season	0.20	40	-	146.000	38.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	21.000	24.000	39.000	55.000	0.2603	0.4162	0.4247	0.2603	0.0343	0.1438	0.2671	0.3767

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.1140
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2915
predicted_BB	0.7020
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.4005
predicted_R	0.7420
predicted_RBI	0.6470
predicted_SLG	0.4524
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.2710	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.1140	0.0776	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.8340	3.7588	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2915	0.2913	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9750	0.7020	0.8136	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.1180	1.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4005	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.7420	0.6839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6470	0.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4524	0.4522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	0.9700	1.1356	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jonah Heim (641680) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.2090

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.2090. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.600	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.600	0.600
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.600	0.600
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.600	0.600
predicted_SO	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.033
predicted_H	0.721	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	0.076
predicted_RBI	0.717	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.415	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.1875	0.2632	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.3750	0.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2821	0.4444	0.2500	0.0278	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833
season	0.20	13	-	43.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2093	0.2857	0.3721	0.2093	0.0233	0.1860	0.1163	0.1163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.5280
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2861
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.7870
predicted_SLG	0.4146
predicted_SO	0.4160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.2510	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.5280	3.4157	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3170	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7950	0.7210	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2861	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.4630	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7870	0.7171	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4146	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.4160	0.4002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641680
playerID	641680
playerName	Jonah Heim
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3399

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	1.000	0.730	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.135	4.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.500	0.060	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.560	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.405	2.000	0.595	0.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.500	0.104	0.000
predicted_R	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.140	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.676	3.000	-0.676	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.704	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.641	1.500	-0.041	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.366	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	1.560	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.425	-
predicted_R	0.784	-
predicted_RBI	1.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.704	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.284	0.014
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.080	-0.190
predicted_AVG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.379	0.001
predicted_H	1.491	-0.069
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.355	-0.015
predicted_OBP	0.425	0.000
predicted_R	0.844	0.060
predicted_RBI	1.090	-0.050
predicted_SLG	0.704	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.920	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.349 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4348	0.7368	0.3684	0.1053	0.3684	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	18.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	4.000	6.000	0.4390	0.4894	0.8537	0.4390	0.0976	0.2683	0.0976	0.1463
season	0.20	37	-	153.000	52.000	10.000	12.000	25.000	29.000	14.000	37.000	0.3399	0.3964	0.6405	0.3399	0.0784	0.1634	0.0915	0.2418

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.3658
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	1.4430
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.3450
predicted_OBP	0.4250
predicted_R	0.8870
predicted_RBI	1.0540
predicted_SLG	0.7036
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.2940	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	3.9460	4.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3790	0.3786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5600	1.4430	1.4914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3450	0.3553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4250	0.4250	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7840	0.8870	0.8444	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1400	1.0540	1.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7040	0.7036	0.7038	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8640	0.9203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Colby Thomas (687515) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 6

All-history rows before 20260513: 6

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	-0.078	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	-0.150	-0.050
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.250	-0.244	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.038
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.163	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	0.004
predicted_H	0.787	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.772	-0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	6	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	6	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4100
predicted_AVG	0.2603
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_OBP	0.3319
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.3590
predicted_SLG	0.4338
predicted_SO	0.6800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0970	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4100	3.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2603	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3420	0.3366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8880	0.7866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1600	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3319	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4550	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3590	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4338	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6800	0.7723	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	687515
playerID	687515
playerName	Colby Thomas
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.125	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.125	3.000	1.875	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	-0.200	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.333	-0.310	-0.333
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.260	0.333	-0.260	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.688	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	2.000	1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.273	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.016
predicted_H	0.595	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.434	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.112

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.2121	0.3158	0.2121	0.2121	0.0000	0.1212	0.1515	0.2121
season	0.20	16	-	50.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3103	0.2600	0.2000	0.0200	0.1000	0.1600	0.2200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4170
predicted_AVG	0.1956
predicted_BB	0.4690
predicted_H	0.6680
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2959
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.2548
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0550	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1250	3.4170	3.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1956	0.1958	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4690	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6680	0.5949	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2959	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4910	0.4337	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3490	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2548	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.9090	0.7998	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

J.T. Ginn (669372) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	1.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.667	1.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.000	4.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.967	8.000	0.133	-3.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_SO	3.444	8.000	3.556	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	11.000	20.000	12.000	23.000	4.000	3.7595	1.2152	0.4177	0.7595	0.4557	0.8734	0.1519
last_10	0.35	9	37.100	15.000	27.000	15.000	31.000	5.000	3.6161	1.1250	0.4018	0.7232	0.4018	0.8304	0.1339
season	0.20	9	37.100	15.000	27.000	15.000	31.000	5.000	3.6161	1.1250	0.4018	0.7232	0.4018	0.8304	0.1339

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9300
predicted_ER	2.0050
predicted_ERA	3.8824
predicted_H	3.7850
predicted_HR	0.6480
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2299

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9300	1.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0050	2.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8824	3.8824	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.7850	2.8909	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6480	0.8243	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.1510	5.5780	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2299	1.2299	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	7
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669372
playerID	669372
playerName	J.T. Ginn
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Justin Sterner (686993) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.053	0.000	-1.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	0.200	0.337	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	-0.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	19	19.200	9.000	20.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	4.1186	1.3729	0.4576	1.0170	0.3559	1.1186	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_ER	0.6050
predicted_ERA	4.1614
predicted_H	0.9910
predicted_HR	0.2170
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3320
predicted_WHIP	1.1314

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4890	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6050	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1614	4.1614	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9910	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2170	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3320	1.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1314	1.1314	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	686993
playerID	686993
playerName	Justin Sterner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.773	0.000	1.227	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	1.000	0.405	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.7500	0.2500	1.1250	0.6250	1.3750	0.1250
season	0.20	22	20.200	6.000	17.000	17.000	22.000	2.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	0.8226	0.8226	1.0645	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_ER	0.4010
predicted_ERA	3.3959
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1860
predicted_WHIP	1.5915

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5230	1.3824	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4010	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3959	3.3959	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1680	0.4884	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0443	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1860	1.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5915	1.5915	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	0.200	0.280	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.400	1.000	1.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.2188	1.4062	0.4688	1.0312	0.3750	0.2812	0.0938
season	0.20	15	15.100	5.000	12.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.7826	0.2609	0.3913	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4460
predicted_ER	0.5320
predicted_ERA	3.9676
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.8770
predicted_WHIP	1.2124

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4460	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5320	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9676	3.9676	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0180	0.3946	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1560	0.0605	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8770	1.5647	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2124	1.2124	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	1.526	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.858	0.200	0.142	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.6000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.4688	0.1875	0.1875	0.2812	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	18	19.100	3.000	6.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	1.3966	0.6724	0.1552	0.3103	0.3621	0.9310	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.3840
predicted_ERA	3.4581
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0140
predicted_WHIP	0.9534

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3280	1.3125	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3840	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4581	3.4581	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6250	0.8458	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0140	1.0058	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9534	0.9534	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.263	0.000	-0.263	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.742	1.000	-0.642	-0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.947	1.000	2.053	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	13.5000	2.0000	1.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	7.000	10.000	4.000	10.000	0.000	7.2692	1.6154	0.8077	1.1539	0.4615	1.1539	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.200	15.000	24.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	8.1000	1.8000	0.9000	1.4400	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	6.6094
predicted_H	0.5980
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5650
predicted_WHIP	1.5207

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2220	0.6920	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3960	0.7608	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6094	6.6094	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5980	0.8408	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0470	0.6227	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.5650	2.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5207	1.5207	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_STL@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260513_TB@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.536922, "home_win_probability": 0.463078, "away_win_probability": 0.536922, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence": 0.536922, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "TB 4 - 2 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TB 4 - 3 TOR	TB	0.537	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TB 4 - 2 TOR	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TB	9-1	0.900	4.60	2.40	22	3W	average	strong
Home TOR	3-7	0.300	4.60	4.20	4	3L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	TB @ TOR	7 - 6	TB	1	close
2026-05-11	TB @ TOR	8 - 5	TB	3	blowout
2026-05-06	TOR @ TB	0 - 3	TB	3	blowout
2026-05-05	TOR @ TB	3 - 4	TB	1	close
2026-05-04	TOR @ TB	1 - 5	TB	4	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TB	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TB	32	9	3	0	2	2	8
Player finalized TOR	34	8	4	0	2	0	7
Player model fractional TB	31.34	7.48	4.19	0.70	3.58	3.15	6.97
Player model fractional TOR	33.04	7.46	3.77	0.84	3.52	2.13	6.76
Simulation box TB	39	12	4	1	4	1	4
Simulation box TOR	31	4	2	1	2	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TB	Starter	Griffin Jax	4.10	2	3	4	1	3.75	1.24	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1.10	0	1	0	1	2.83	1.05	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.54	1.04	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Ian Seymour	1.10	0	3	0	0	3.77	1.28	-
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Kevin Kelly	1.10	0	0	0	1	2.64	1.01	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.89	1.28	True
Home TOR	Starter	Dylan Cease	3.20	1	2	7	1	3.23	1.23	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	1.20	0	0	0	0	4.57	1.46	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1.10	2	0	3	0	2.49	1.32	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Braydon Fisher	1	0	0	0	0	5.48	1.35	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Mason Fluharty	1	0	2	0	0	3.49	1.17	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	0.10	1	0	2	0	4.22	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TB

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2564

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.075	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.075	0.000	0.925	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	6.000	1.100	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.333	0.344	0.267
predicted_BB	0.525	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.333	0.257	0.267
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	0.525	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.333	0.313	0.467
predicted_SO	0.725	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.725	1.000	1.275	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.725	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.970	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.532	0.007
predicted_H	0.995	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.264	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.739	0.089
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.648	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5455	0.2727	0.0909	0.1364	0.0909	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	0.2432	0.3778	0.4054	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.2162	0.1622
season	0.20	40	-	156.000	40.000	3.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	21.000	29.000	0.2564	0.3427	0.4872	0.2564	0.0705	0.1218	0.1346	0.1859

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.2569
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2730
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.8010
predicted_RBI	0.4640
predicted_SLG	0.4718
predicted_SO	0.5940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0750	0.0410	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	4.0180	3.9695	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.5370	0.5321	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0330	0.9948	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2730	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.8010	0.7390	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4640	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4718	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7250	0.5940	0.6478	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	2
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 37

All-history rows before 20260513: 37

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	4.210	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.054	5.000	0.946	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.600	0.100	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.216	3.000	0.784	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.600	0.073	-0.200
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	3.000	0.486	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.189	0.000	0.811	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.600	0.067	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	4.210	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.432	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.004
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.025
predicted_AB	4.074	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.065
predicted_H	1.265	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.153
predicted_RBI	0.251	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.451	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.210

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	0.0500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1500
season	0.20	37	-	150.000	45.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	19.000	7.000	16.000	0.3000	0.3270	0.3333	0.3000	0.0467	0.0467	0.1067

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0340
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.9770
predicted_AVG	0.3101
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_H	1.2330
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3243
predicted_R	0.7770
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.3395
predicted_SO	0.4640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0270	0.0340	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0110	0.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2100	3.9770	4.0742	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3101	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.0780	0.1243	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.2330	1.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3243	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.7770	0.6673	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2440	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4320	0.4640	0.4507	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2933

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	5.000	0.154	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.000	-0.043	0.250
predicted_BB	0.359	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	1.000	0.641	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	0.000	-0.128	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.167	0.026	0.233
predicted_R	0.513	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	0.487	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.410	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.028
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.931	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.087
predicted_H	0.763	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.364	-0.149
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	0.734	0.170

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2083	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2051	0.2381	0.3077	0.2051	0.0256	0.0769	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	39	-	150.000	44.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	14.000	22.000	0.2933	0.3743	0.4333	0.2933	0.0333	0.1533	0.0933	0.1467

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9910
predicted_AVG	0.2021
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.8070
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2599
predicted_R	0.2590
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.2972
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1500	0.1306	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.9910	3.9311	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2021	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.2110	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8070	0.7628	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2599	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.2590	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3420	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.8530	0.7336	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.632	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.632	4.000	1.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.750	0.280	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	3.000	1.421	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.750	0.135	-0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	3.000	-0.368	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.750	0.200	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.978	0.346
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	-0.053
predicted_H	0.597	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.303	-0.000
predicted_R	0.310	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.868	0.184

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.1177	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.2069	0.3143	0.2414	0.2069	0.0000	0.1379	0.1724	0.3448
season	0.20	19	-	50.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	13.000	0.2200	0.3651	0.3000	0.2200	0.0200	0.1400	0.2000	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3060
predicted_AVG	0.2114
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_H	0.6990
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.3028
predicted_R	0.2550
predicted_RBI	0.4810
predicted_SLG	0.2790
predicted_SO	1.0420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0860	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6320	3.3060	2.9782	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2114	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4230	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6990	0.5974	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.2550	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4810	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	1.0420	0.8679	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.318	1.000	-0.318	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.136	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.136	4.000	0.864	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.500	-0.449	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	2.000	0.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.136	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.194	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	-0.064
predicted_H	0.799	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.276	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.925	0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2667	0.2667	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5333	0.3000	0.0333	0.1000	0.1000	0.3333
season	0.20	22	-	69.000	18.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	18.000	0.2609	0.3289	0.4493	0.2609	0.0290	0.0725	0.1014	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2460
predicted_AVG	0.2678
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3109
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.4175
predicted_SO	1.0190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3180	0.2690	0.2920	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1360	3.2460	3.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2678	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.1970	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8690	0.7990	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3109	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3800	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2990	0.2760	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4175	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	1.0190	0.9246	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 15

All-history rows before 20260513: 15

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.400	4.000	1.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	-0.028	0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.250	-0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.250	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.347	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.044
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.714	0.214
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	-0.042
predicted_H	0.711	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.479	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.193	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.770	-0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2800	0.3571	0.3200	0.2800	0.0800	0.0800	0.2800
season	0.20	15	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.3056	0.2778	0.0833	0.1389	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	2.9510
predicted_AVG	0.2867
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_H	0.8460
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3658
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.2300
predicted_SLG	0.3847
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1620	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.9510	2.7137	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2867	0.2869	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3470	0.2580	0.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8460	0.7113	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5480	0.4791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.2300	0.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3847	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7010	0.7704	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	1.289	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.500	-0.084	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.053	2.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	-0.176	-0.300
predicted_R	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.868	1.000	-0.868	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.489	0.500	-0.289	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	1.000	-0.053	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.333	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.431	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.602	-0.109
predicted_AVG	0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	0.015
predicted_H	1.156	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.242	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.431	-0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.3125	0.4583	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500	0.2500	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	16.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.4324	0.4889	0.5405	0.4324	0.0270	0.2162	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	40.000	5.000	8.000	33.000	21.000	21.000	40.000	0.2837	0.3765	0.4894	0.2837	0.0567	0.2340	0.1489	0.2837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5250
predicted_AVG	0.3330
predicted_BB	0.5790
predicted_H	1.1740
predicted_HBP	0.2420
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.4306
predicted_R	0.6370
predicted_RBI	0.7700
predicted_SLG	0.4944
predicted_SO	1.0220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0750	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.5250	3.6019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.5790	0.5683	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1740	1.1558	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2420	0.2420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1640	0.1623	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4310	0.4306	0.4308	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.6370	0.6023	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7700	0.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4944	0.4942	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	1.0220	1.0348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 32

All-history rows before 20260513: 32

System season_avg: 0.1330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	0.938	1.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.133	0.200	0.367	0.300
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.182	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.186	0.200	0.314	0.300
predicted_R	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	2.000	-0.406	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.197	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.200	0.533	0.550
predicted_SO	0.781	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.781	2.000	-0.781	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.182	-
predicted_R	0.281	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.197	-
predicted_SO	0.781	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.774	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	-0.043
predicted_H	0.559	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.182	-0.000
predicted_R	0.258	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.559	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.197	0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	-0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1282	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1316	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	9.000	6.000	25.000	0.1333	0.1860	0.2167	0.1333	0.0167	0.1083	0.0500	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7920
predicted_AVG	0.1552
predicted_BB	0.1130
predicted_H	0.5890
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.1819
predicted_R	0.2400
predicted_RBI	0.5890
predicted_SLG	0.1972
predicted_SO	0.7510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0440	0.0517	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0179	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7920	3.7740	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1552	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1130	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5890	0.5593	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1820	0.1819	0.1819	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2810	0.2400	0.2576	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5890	0.5593	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1970	0.1972	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7810	0.7510	0.7639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.133

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 29

All-history rows before 20260513: 29

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.034	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.034	3.000	0.966	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.333	-0.205	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.448	2.000	-0.448	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	1.000	-0.069	-1.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.621	1.000	-0.621	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.600	-0.314	-0.600
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	2.000	-0.448	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	1.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.333	-0.261	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.862	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	0.000	-0.862	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.034	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.448	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.077	0.043
predicted_AB	3.104	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.473	0.025
predicted_H	0.638	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	-0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.3333	0.2000	0.1333	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.2414	0.3529	0.3448	0.2414	0.1379	0.1724	0.1379
season	0.20	29	-	88.000	18.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	13.000	13.000	25.000	0.2045	0.3137	0.2614	0.2046	0.0909	0.1477	0.2841

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.1600
predicted_AVG	0.2219
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	0.7010
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3292
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.3392
predicted_SO	0.7110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0800	0.0903	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.1110	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0340	3.1600	3.1038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2219	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4480	0.4930	0.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7010	0.6381	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.4290	0.4375	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3980	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3392	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.7110	0.7784	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Griffin Jax (643377) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	2.000	1.286	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	1.143	4.000	2.857	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	4.000	3.014	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.214	3.000	1.786	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.6177	0.4412	1.0588	0.0882
last_10	0.35	10	16.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	2.000	2.8125	1.1875	0.3125	0.6875	0.5000	1.0000	0.1250
season	0.20	13	18.000	7.000	13.000	9.000	17.000	3.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.7222	0.5000	0.9444	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3900
predicted_ER	1.3820
predicted_ERA	3.7484
predicted_H	2.7330
predicted_HR	0.4120
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.2590
predicted_WHIP	1.2426

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3900	1.1575	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3820	1.7505	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7484	3.7484	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	2.7330	3.4884	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4120	0.7626	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.2590	3.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2426	1.2426	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	17
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	59
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	39
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	643377
playerID	643377
playerName	Griffin Jax
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	2.000	-0.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.2308	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	0.9643	0.7500	0.1071	0.5357	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	1.000	2.1600	0.8400	0.2400	0.6000	0.2400	1.1400	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	2.8339
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2650
predicted_WHIP	1.0473

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3830	0.7557	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3780	0.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8339	2.8339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8740	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2650	1.1049	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0473	1.0473	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 17

All-history rows before 20260513: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	2.000	-0.471	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.235	2.000	-1.235	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.147	0.000	-0.047	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.3580
predicted_ERA	2.5422
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1650
predicted_WHIP	1.0446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4110	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3580	0.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5422	2.5422	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9110	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1650	0.4871	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0446	1.0446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.48
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-1.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.100	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.278	2.000	1.722	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.6000	1.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	17	19.100	7.000	14.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	3.2586	1.1379	0.3621	0.7241	0.4138	1.1897	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4990
predicted_ER	0.4980
predicted_ERA	3.7741
predicted_H	1.0180
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2450
predicted_WHIP	1.2769

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4990	0.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4980	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7741	3.7741	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0180	0.4186	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1800	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2450	2.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2769	1.2769	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	0.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5294	0.0000	0.4412	0.0882	0.7059	0.0000
season	0.20	18	19.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	2.8421	0.7368	0.3158	0.5263	0.2105	0.7895	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	2.6381
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9950
predicted_WHIP	1.0104

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2950	0.7114	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3490	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6381	2.6381	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9070	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9950	0.4073	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0104	1.0104	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	1.000	-0.575	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	0.875	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.0769	0.9231	0.2308	0.6923	0.2308	1.3846
last_10	0.35	8	6.200	3.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	4.0500	1.6500	0.4500	0.9000	0.7500	1.3500
season	0.20	8	6.200	3.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	4.0500	1.6500	0.4500	0.9000	0.7500	1.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.3090
predicted_ERA	3.8887
predicted_H	0.6440
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7470
predicted_WHIP	1.2842

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.0866	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3090	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8887	3.8887	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6440	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0231	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7470	1.6040	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2842	1.2842	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: TOR

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2556

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	4.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.500	-0.256	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	2.000	-0.944	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	2.000	-0.139	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.500	-0.279	-0.500
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	5.000	-0.639	-5.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.639	2.000	-0.639	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.639	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.685	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	-0.025
predicted_H	0.742	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.238	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.000
predicted_R	0.402	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.863	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.440	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.749	0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.3889	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.1622	0.1795	0.3243	0.1622	0.0541	0.1892	0.0000	0.1892
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	12.000	4.000	23.000	0.2556	0.2786	0.4286	0.2556	0.0376	0.1729	0.0301	0.1729

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.2143
predicted_BB	0.0670
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_OBP	0.2339
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.9160
predicted_SLG	0.4396
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0580	0.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0070	0.0159	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.6790	3.6854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2143	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0670	0.0857	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7880	0.7421	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2520	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2339	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4520	0.4015	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.9160	0.8625	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4396	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6390	0.8300	0.7489	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	5
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

System season_avg: 0.3700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3704

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.250	-0.414	-0.250
predicted_R	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.111	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.027
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.256	0.256
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.011
predicted_H	0.880	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.202	0.091
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.478	0.145

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3333	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	9	-	27.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.3704	0.4138	0.4074	0.3704	0.1482	0.0741	0.1111
season	0.20	9	-	27.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.3704	0.4138	0.4074	0.3704	0.1482	0.0741	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.2781
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3290
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.3784
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1720	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5880	3.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2470	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9980	0.8805	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3290	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1110	0.3210	0.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3870	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3784	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.6670	0.4783	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	-0.243
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	-0.313
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.375
predicted_SO	0.778	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	2.000	1.222

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.865	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.039
predicted_H	0.998	0.108
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.537	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.143	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.896	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.3250	0.2750	0.0000	0.0250	0.0750	0.2250
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	18.000	12.000	28.000	0.2426	0.3133	0.3750	0.2427	0.0294	0.0662	0.0882	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.2738
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.0760
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3231
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.1530
predicted_SLG	0.3356
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1170	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.9290	3.8655	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2738	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2660	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0760	0.9978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0400	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3231	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5640	0.5371	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1530	0.1433	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3356	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.9820	0.8962	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.633	2.000	-0.633	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.257	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	1.000	-0.933	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.500	-0.050	-0.250
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.500	-0.431	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.633	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.631	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	-0.006
predicted_H	0.825	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.924	0.124

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2368	0.2750	0.3421	0.2368	0.0263	0.0526	0.0263	0.2632
season	0.20	30	-	109.000	28.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	13.000	6.000	24.000	0.2569	0.3000	0.4312	0.2569	0.0459	0.1468	0.0551	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.2409
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.2998
predicted_R	0.6040
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.3919
predicted_SO	1.0200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0820	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6330	3.6290	3.6307	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2409	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1900	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8740	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1530	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.6040	0.5297	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3830	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3919	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	1.0200	0.9244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.463	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.098	0.000	-0.098	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	-0.127	0.250
predicted_R	0.561	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	0.000	0.439	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	1.000	0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.121	0.500
predicted_SO	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.512	1.000	-0.512	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.200	-
predicted_SO	0.512	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.800	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.041
predicted_H	0.601	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.000
predicted_R	0.508	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.373	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	0.531	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1818	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2000	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0750	0.1000	0.1500
season	0.20	41	-	153.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	18.000	23.000	19.000	21.000	0.2941	0.3771	0.3791	0.2941	0.0131	0.1177	0.1242	0.1373

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8480
predicted_AVG	0.1637
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	0.6300
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2387
predicted_R	0.4710
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.2003
predicted_SO	0.5450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0570	0.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.8480	3.8002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1637	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.3940	0.4224	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6300	0.6012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2387	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.4710	0.5081	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3890	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2000	0.2003	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5120	0.5450	0.5314	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 23

All-history rows before 20260513: 23

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2022

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.870	5.000	0.130	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.400	0.298	0.100
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	2.000	1.217	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	0.913	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.400	0.217	0.100
predicted_R	0.304	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.304	2.000	0.696	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	1.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.400	0.924	0.850
predicted_SO	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.870	1.000	0.130	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.304	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.870	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.113
predicted_H	0.906	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.397	0.093
predicted_RBI	0.256	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667
season	0.20	23	-	89.000	18.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	9.000	20.000	0.2022	0.2828	0.3258	0.2023	0.0225	0.0786	0.1011	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8950
predicted_AVG	0.2297
predicted_BB	0.1860
predicted_H	0.8950
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2724
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.2530
predicted_SLG	0.3076
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2170	0.1700	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8950	3.9421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.1860	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8950	0.9062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2724	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3040	0.4730	0.3972	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2530	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3076	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8700	0.8330	0.8496	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2952

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.049	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.049	4.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	2.000	-1.195	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.500	-0.314	-0.500
predicted_R	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.366	1.000	-0.366	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.500	-0.410	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.317	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.317	1.000	0.683	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.049	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.122	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.366	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.443	-
predicted_SO	0.317	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.139
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.007	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	-0.016
predicted_H	1.230	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.498	0.132
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.443	0.000
predicted_SO	0.444	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.049

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.5500	0.4000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.2750	0.2857	0.3500	0.2750	0.0250	0.0750	0.0250	0.1000
season	0.20	41	-	166.000	49.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	5.000	13.000	0.2952	0.3140	0.4096	0.2952	0.0120	0.0723	0.0301	0.0783

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9780
predicted_AVG	0.3217
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	1.2800
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3372
predicted_R	0.5910
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.4434
predicted_SO	0.5330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3170	0.0810	0.1784	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0490	3.9780	4.0073	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3217	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1220	0.0940	0.1056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.2800	1.2305	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1330	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3372	0.3371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3660	0.5910	0.4981	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4400	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4430	0.4434	0.4432	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3170	0.5330	0.4438	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-2B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Heineman (623168) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.944	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.789	3.000	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	-0.170
predicted_BB	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.053	0.000	-0.053
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.474	0.000	-0.474
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.211	0.000	-0.211
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.105	0.000	-0.105
predicted_SLG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.170	0.000	-0.170
predicted_SO	0.722	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.944	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.056	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.196	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.196	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.068	0.124
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.074	0.018
predicted_H	0.400	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.196	0.000
predicted_R	0.198	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.155	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.196	0.000
predicted_SO	0.704	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.0690	0.1000	0.0690	0.0690	0.0345	0.0000	0.2759
season	0.20	18	-	53.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1698	0.2143	0.1698	0.1698	0.0377	0.0189	0.2453

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.1439
predicted_BB	0.0910
predicted_H	0.4590
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.1963
predicted_R	0.1750
predicted_RBI	0.1790
predicted_SLG	0.1964
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0530	0.0266	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9440	3.1900	3.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1439	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0560	0.0910	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.4590	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1960	0.1963	0.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.1750	0.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1790	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1960	0.1964	0.1962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.6860	0.7039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	623168
playerID	623168
playerName	Tyler Heineman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2418

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.732	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.732	4.000	-1.732	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	0.258	0.500
predicted_BB	0.463	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	1.000	1.537	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	0.000	0.098	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.200	0.424	0.550
predicted_R	0.512	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.000	0.036	0.500
predicted_SO	1.220	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.220	2.000	-1.220	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.732	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	1.220	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.783	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.024
predicted_H	0.877	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.500	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.407	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.180	-0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2821	0.3636	0.5641	0.2821	0.0769	0.2051	0.1282	0.3077
season	0.20	41	-	153.000	37.000	4.000	10.000	26.000	21.000	19.000	50.000	0.2418	0.3256	0.4641	0.2418	0.0654	0.1699	0.1242	0.3268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8180
predicted_AVG	0.2422
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_H	0.9250
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3186
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.4066
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.1790	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7320	3.8180	3.7825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2422	0.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.4230	0.4395	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9250	0.8775	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3186	0.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.4920	0.5003	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6450	0.6099	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4066	0.4068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2200	1.1520	1.1801	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Dylan Cease (656302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	0.000	-1.250	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.625	0.000	-0.625	1.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	4.750	5.000	2.250	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.550	7.000	-2.350	-3.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	8.250	10.000	-6.250	-8.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	9.000	26.000	9.000	40.000	1.000	2.6413	1.1413	0.2935	0.8478	0.2935	1.3043	0.0326
last_10	0.35	8	45.100	13.000	38.000	18.000	66.000	1.000	2.5809	1.2353	0.2868	0.8382	0.3971	1.4559	0.0221
season	0.20	8	45.100	13.000	38.000	18.000	66.000	1.000	2.5809	1.2353	0.2868	0.8382	0.3971	1.4559	0.0221

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7480
predicted_ER	1.8080
predicted_ERA	3.2300
predicted_H	4.4370
predicted_HR	0.3410
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	6.0500
predicted_WHIP	1.2279

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7480	1.3647	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.8080	1.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2300	3.2300	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.4370	5.7505	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3410	0.1662	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	6.0500	3.9744	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2279	1.2279	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.58
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656302
playerID	656302
playerName	Dylan Cease
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.263	2.000	-1.263	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.868	1.000	0.332	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.684	2.000	-1.684	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	3.6000	1.6000	0.4000	1.6000	0.0000	1.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	14.000	2.000	14.000	2.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.5000	0.2143	1.5000	0.2143
season	0.20	19	17.200	11.000	24.000	7.000	32.000	3.000	5.6038	1.7547	0.6226	1.3585	0.3962	1.8113	0.1698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_ER	0.7070
predicted_ERA	4.5743
predicted_H	1.6380
predicted_HR	0.2200
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5510
predicted_WHIP	1.4640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3990	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7070	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5743	4.5743	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6380	0.6583	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2200	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5510	0.6233	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4640	1.4640	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	1.950	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.000	0.195	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6429	0.8571	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	5.000	14.000	0.9310	1.2414	0.1035	0.7241	0.5172	1.4483
season	0.20	20	20.200	1.000	15.000	8.000	30.000	0.4355	1.1129	0.0484	0.7258	0.3871	1.4516

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5900
predicted_ER	0.3280
predicted_ERA	2.4927
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2540
predicted_WHIP	1.3247

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5900	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3280	1.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4927	2.4927	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9770	2.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0840	0.6170	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2540	0.5243	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3247	1.3247	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.44
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.381	1.000	-0.381	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.890	1.000	0.110	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.952	0.000	-0.952	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	9.0000	1.4000	1.0000	0.8000	0.6000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	6.3000	1.5000	0.7000	0.8000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	21	22.200	8.000	16.000	9.000	20.000	1.000	3.1765	1.1029	0.3529	0.7059	0.3971	0.8823	0.0441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_ER	0.6090
predicted_ERA	5.4769
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8480
predicted_WHIP	1.3456

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4820	0.2062	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6090	0.2605	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4769	5.4769	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8640	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0308	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8480	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3456	1.3456	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 21

All-history rows before 20260513: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.510	1.000	0.490	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.905	0.000	1.095	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.5454	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.7500	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	14.200	7.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.8182	0.4773	1.2954	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.3400
predicted_ERA	3.4931
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8690
predicted_WHIP	1.1734

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2920	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3400	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4931	3.4931	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7370	0.2824	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8690	1.5667	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1734	1.1734	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.789	0.000	1.211	2.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	-0.821	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	6.2308	1.8462	0.6923	1.6154	0.2308	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.7778	0.1111	0.6667
season	0.20	19	18.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	11.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8036	0.2679	0.5893

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1860
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	4.2184
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5410
predicted_WHIP	1.3346

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1860	0.0758	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2890	0.7102	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2184	4.2184	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6380	1.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5410	0.2205	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3346	1.3346	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

20260513_WAS@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.614726, "home_win_probability": 0.385274, "away_win_probability": 0.614726, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 2 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 2 CIN", "confidence": 0.614726, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 2 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "WAS 5 - 3 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	WAS 6 - 2 CIN	WAS	0.615	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	WAS 5 - 3 CIN	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away WAS	5-5	0.500	5.20	4.90	3	1W	hot	average
Home CIN	2-8	0.200	3.40	6.20	-28	1L	cold	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-12	WAS @ CIN	10 - 4	WAS	6	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target WAS	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target CIN	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Player finalized WAS	34	9	7	0	6	3	9
Player finalized CIN	32	9	2	0	2	2	8
Player model fractional WAS	32.89	7.59	5.07	1.26	4.69	3.72	8.29
Player model fractional CIN	32.62	7.44	3.75	0.90	3.16	3.86	8.32
Simulation box WAS	37	10	5	1	5	2	9
Simulation box CIN	34	7	3	1	3	4	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away WAS	Starter	Jake Irvin	3.20	2	6	5	1	4.40	1.31	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	2.10	0	1	0	0	4.94	1.40	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Paxton Schultz	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.10	1.21	-
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1	1	1	2	2	3.03	1.19	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1	0	1	0	1	2.98	1.26	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1	0	0	0	0	2.80	1.43	True
Home CIN	Starter	Nick Lodolo	5.20	2	5	4	0	4.63	1.29	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Brock Burke	1.10	1	3	1	0	5.35	1.68	-
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1.10	1	1	1	0	4.74	1.50	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1	0	2	0	1	3.38	1.26	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1	2	1	5	1	3.99	1.32	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: WAS

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2437

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.262	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.262	0.000	0.738	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	4.000	0.190	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.506	0.500
predicted_BB	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	1.000	2.071	2.000
predicted_HR	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.400	0.408	0.400
predicted_R	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	1.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.609	1.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.537	1.000	1.212	0.750
predicted_SO	1.476	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.476	2.000	-1.476	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.262	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.609	-
predicted_SO	1.476	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	0.099
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.803	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	-0.120
predicted_H	1.000	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.127	-
predicted_HR	0.291	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.389	-0.000
predicted_R	0.770	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.497	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.609	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	-0.258

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.455)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2778	0.4348	0.7778	0.2778	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	42	-	160.000	39.000	11.000	12.000	29.000	36.000	36.000	62.000	0.2437	0.3920	0.5375	0.2437	0.0750	0.1812	0.2250	0.3875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.2630
predicted_BB	0.6550
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HBP	0.1270
predicted_HR	0.2850
predicted_OBP	0.3888
predicted_R	0.7110
predicted_RBI	0.4890
predicted_SLG	0.6093
predicted_SO	1.0420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2620	0.4290	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.7230	3.8029	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	0.6550	0.7369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	0.9790	0.9997	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1270	0.1270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.2850	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3888	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.7110	0.7702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4890	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6090	0.6093	0.6092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4760	1.0420	1.2179	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2027

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	5.000	0.636	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.200	0.047	0.050
predicted_BB	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.682	1.000	0.318	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.221	0.200	0.029	0.050
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.400	-0.142	-0.150
predicted_SO	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	1.000	0.409	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.045	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.429	0.065
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.535	0.171
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	0.021
predicted_H	0.758	0.108
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.6316	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	8.000	0.1944	0.1944	0.4167	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0000	0.2222
season	0.20	22	-	74.000	15.000	8.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	0.2027	0.2208	0.3919	0.2027	0.0270	0.1487	0.0135	0.1757

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4870
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6860
predicted_AVG	0.2318
predicted_BB	0.0850
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2516
predicted_R	0.5460
predicted_RBI	0.5620
predicted_SLG	0.4765
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.4870	0.4294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.6860	3.5352	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2318	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0450	0.0850	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8540	0.7584	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1360	0.1191	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2516	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.5460	0.4607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5620	0.5002	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4765	0.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.7840	0.6936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Joey Wiemer (686894) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.042	0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.250	0.119	0.250
predicted_R	0.688	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	0.000	-0.688	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	-0.139	0.333
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	2.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.063
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.487	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.074
predicted_H	0.704	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	-0.112
predicted_RBI	0.346	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.522	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2941	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.5882
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	18.000	0.1765	0.2432	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.0882	0.5294
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	11.000	8.000	24.000	0.2909	0.3810	0.4727	0.2909	0.0364	0.1091	0.1454	0.4364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2470
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.5340
predicted_AVG	0.2138
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2880
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.3700
predicted_SLG	0.3368
predicted_SO	1.5430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.2470	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0130	0.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.5340	3.4873	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2138	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3560	0.4260	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7550	0.7039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0521	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2880	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.4690	0.5755	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3700	0.3457	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3368	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.5430	1.5221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	686894
playerID	686894
playerName	Joey Wiemer
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 41

All-history rows before 20260513: 41

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2638

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	5.000	0.024	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.600	-0.014	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.390	0.000	-0.390	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.049	3.000	-0.049	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	2.000	-0.122	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.376	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.600	-0.081	-0.350
predicted_R	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	2.000	0.366	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	4.000	0.537	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.625	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	1.800	-0.173	-1.550
predicted_SO	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	0.000	-0.780	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.390	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.376	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.625	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.837	-0.139
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	-0.094
predicted_H	1.192	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.376	-0.000
predicted_R	0.564	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.625	0.000
predicted_SO	0.687	-0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.4211	0.4286	0.8421	0.4210	0.1053	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3659	0.5714	0.2857	0.0571	0.1429	0.1143	0.2000
season	0.20	41	-	163.000	43.000	11.000	5.000	19.000	26.000	16.000	32.000	0.2638	0.3315	0.4233	0.2638	0.0307	0.1166	0.0982	0.1963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.3283
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	1.2280
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.2530
predicted_OBP	0.3756
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.6810
predicted_SLG	0.6253
predicted_SO	0.6220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.3490	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	3.7400	3.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3283	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3900	0.2310	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2280	1.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2530	0.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3760	0.3756	0.3758	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.5160	0.5644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6810	0.6601	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6250	0.6253	0.6252	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.6220	0.6868	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 40

All-history rows before 20260513: 40

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2945

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	4.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.500	-0.295	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	1.000	-0.475	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	2.000	-1.075	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.600	-0.393	-0.600
predicted_R	0.575	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.534	0.500	-0.534	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.421	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.075	0.050
predicted_AB	3.786	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.046
predicted_H	0.966	0.096
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.551	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.707	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.421	0.000
predicted_SO	1.002	0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.4615	0.2821	0.0256	0.2564	0.1026	0.2821
season	0.20	40	-	146.000	43.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	23.000	19.000	33.000	0.2945	0.3931	0.5342	0.2945	0.0616	0.2466	0.1301	0.2260

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.8810
predicted_AVG	0.2663
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.3382
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.7540
predicted_SLG	0.4212
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1140	0.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.1110	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.8810	3.7857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2663	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.3970	0.4292	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0330	0.9658	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0890	0.0853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3382	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.5350	0.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.7540	0.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4210	0.4212	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	1.1260	1.0019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2117

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.806	4.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.288	0.500
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	1.194	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.248	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.200	0.240	0.300
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.472	1.000	0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.443	0.750
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.248	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.291	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.056
predicted_H	0.577	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.248	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.345	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.152 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2195	0.2368	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	29.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	17.000	7.000	27.000	0.2117	0.2603	0.3066	0.2117	0.0219	0.1168	0.0511	0.1971

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1640
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.2479
predicted_R	0.6390
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.2906
predicted_SO	0.6470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0480	0.0746	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.7260	3.7598	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1640	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2910	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6110	0.5768	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2480	0.2479	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.6390	0.5685	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3630	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2910	0.2906	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6470	0.6905	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2712

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	2.000	1.312	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.500	0.129	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.562	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.750	0.023	-0.350
predicted_R	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.688	0.000	1.312	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.525	1.000	-0.125	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.389	0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.647	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.580	0.018
predicted_H	0.961	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.105	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.591	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.476	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.605	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4286	0.4706	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	5.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.1944	0.1944	0.1389
season	0.20	16	-	59.000	16.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	11.000	9.000	10.000	0.2712	0.3768	0.5254	0.2712	0.0508	0.1864	0.1525	0.1695

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4010
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6100
predicted_AVG	0.2718
predicted_BB	0.5960
predicted_H	0.9810
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.3793
predicted_R	0.6550
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.4759
predicted_SO	0.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.4010	0.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.6100	3.6473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2718	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.5960	0.5797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9810	0.9614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1090	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3793	0.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.6550	0.6708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6010	0.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4759	0.4759	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.5870	0.6052	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 36

All-history rows before 20260513: 36

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2137

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.333	-0.214	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.528	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.500	-0.326	-0.500
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.333	-0.239	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	2.000	0.222	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.528	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.001
predicted_3B	0.033	0.005
predicted_AB	3.051	-0.199
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	0.055
predicted_H	0.605	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3529	0.1667	0.1667	0.0833	0.3333	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3529	0.3214	0.2500	0.1429	0.1786	0.2143
season	0.20	36	-	117.000	25.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	28.000	0.2137	0.3261	0.2393	0.2137	0.1197	0.1624	0.2393

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0290
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	2.9040
predicted_AVG	0.2122
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_H	0.6160
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3400
predicted_R	0.3110
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.2638
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0280	0.0290	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0360	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	2.9040	3.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5280	0.6230	0.5826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6160	0.6049	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3400	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3110	0.3676	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3300	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.8570	0.8234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 33

All-history rows before 20260513: 33

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2206

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.121	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.121	4.000	0.879	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.250	-0.221	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.400	-0.279	-0.400
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	2.000	-0.515	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.606	2.000	-0.606	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	1.000	-0.397	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.242	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.242	1.000	0.758	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.121	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.242	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.983	-0.138
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.354	0.021
predicted_H	0.832	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.714	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.432	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.049	-0.193

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.121

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2791	0.4872	0.2051	0.0769	0.2821	0.1026	0.2308
season	0.20	33	-	136.000	30.000	6.000	6.000	20.000	17.000	11.000	41.000	0.2206	0.2789	0.3971	0.2206	0.0441	0.1471	0.0809	0.3015

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8820
predicted_AVG	0.2163
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2130
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.4318
predicted_SO	0.9080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1940	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1210	3.8820	3.9828	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3700	0.3544	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8400	0.8316	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2130	0.2117	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.5680	0.5457	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7240	0.7139	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4318	0.4319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2420	0.9080	1.0488	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jake Irvin (663623) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 8

All-history rows before 20260513: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	4.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.750	8.000	0.250	-3.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.900	5.000	-1.700	-1.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.125	2.000	0.875	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	12.000	25.000	8.000	25.000	2.000	4.2078	1.2857	0.4675	0.9740	0.3117	0.9740	0.0779
last_10	0.35	8	39.200	23.000	38.000	16.000	41.000	5.000	5.2185	1.3613	0.5798	0.9580	0.4034	1.0336	0.1260
season	0.20	8	39.200	23.000	38.000	16.000	41.000	5.000	5.2185	1.3613	0.5798	0.9580	0.4034	1.0336	0.1260

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5970
predicted_ER	2.1960
predicted_ERA	4.4037
predicted_H	4.2960
predicted_HR	0.4800
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.3960
predicted_WHIP	1.3132

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5970	1.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1960	2.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4037	4.4037	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.2960	4.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4800	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.3960	5.2180	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3132	1.3132	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.22
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663623
playerID	663623
playerName	Jake Irvin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 16

All-history rows before 20260513: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	2.000	-0.312	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.762	0.100	1.338	2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.0714	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	12.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.3333	0.2222	1.1111	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.000	8.000	18.000	5.000	17.000	1.000	4.8000	1.5333	0.5333	1.2000	0.3333	1.1333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6680
predicted_ER	1.0080
predicted_ERA	4.9421
predicted_H	1.8940
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.8540
predicted_WHIP	1.3962

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6680	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0080	0.3885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9421	4.9421	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8940	0.7299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	2.0000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.8540	1.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3962	1.3962	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Paxton Schultz (687606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 11

All-history rows before 20260513: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.273	2.000	-1.273	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	2.000	-0.218	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	3.000	0.545	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0500	0.0000	0.7500	0.3000	1.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	4.000	13.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0227	0.2727	0.8864	0.1364	1.0227	0.1364
season	0.20	11	15.200	4.000	14.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	2.2979	1.0851	0.2553	0.8936	0.1915	1.0213	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	3.0955
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.2145

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4250	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4590	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0955	3.0955	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1940	0.4653	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3170	1.7338	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2145	1.2145	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	687606
playerID	687606
playerName	Paxton Schultz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 13

All-history rows before 20260513: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.462	0.000	1.538	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.938	2.200	-0.938	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-0.615	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	0.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.9310	0.2069	0.8276	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.200	6.000	16.000	4.000	17.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.7742	0.1935	0.8226	0.0968
season	0.20	13	28.000	10.000	26.000	6.000	21.000	3.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.9286	0.2143	0.7500	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.5140
predicted_ERA	3.0296
predicted_H	1.3830
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3440
predicted_WHIP	1.1925

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4380	1.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5140	0.7812	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0296	3.0296	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3830	1.7223	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1380	0.6120	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3440	1.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1925	1.1925	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	0.100	0.225	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.7778	0.4444	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	20	19.000	7.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	3.000	3.3158	1.3684	0.3684	0.7895	0.5789	0.7368	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4580
predicted_ER	0.3310
predicted_ERA	2.9802
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HR	0.0870
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9340
predicted_WHIP	1.2605

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4580	0.7781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3310	0.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9802	2.9802	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8030	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0870	0.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9340	0.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2605	1.2605	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 9

All-history rows before 20260513: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	3.000	-1.222	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	0.8710	1.5484	0.0968	0.7742	0.7742	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	15	17.000	4.000	16.000	12.000	17.000	1.000	2.1176	1.6471	0.2353	0.9412	0.7059	1.0000	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5380
predicted_ER	0.3110
predicted_ERA	2.8011
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0570
predicted_WHIP	1.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5380	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3110	0.1238	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8011	2.8011	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8900	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0570	0.4206	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4286	1.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: CIN

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	2.840	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	2.250	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.000	-0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.333	-0.292	-0.333
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	2.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	0.016
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.020
predicted_AB	2.991	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.550	0.100
predicted_H	0.620	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	-0.000
predicted_R	0.409	0.109
predicted_RBI	0.157	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	1.017	0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2143	0.4500	0.2143	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.1724	0.3333	0.3103	0.1724	0.0345	0.0345	0.2069	0.4138
season	0.20	20	-	55.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	20.000	0.1636	0.2923	0.2727	0.1636	0.0182	0.0364	0.1636	0.3636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.1320
predicted_AVG	0.2067
predicted_BB	0.6440
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3548
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.1640
predicted_SLG	0.3022
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0500	0.0810	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0110	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8400	3.1320	2.9908	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.6440	0.5502	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6480	0.6200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3548	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.5110	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1640	0.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3022	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0330	1.0170	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 39

All-history rows before 20260513: 39

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2391

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.538	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.538	5.000	0.462	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.200	-0.239	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.200	-0.312	-0.200
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	1.000	-0.410	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.200	-0.435	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.538	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.288	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.743	0.205
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000
predicted_H	0.805	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.288	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	-0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.0750	0.0500	0.1750
season	0.20	39	-	138.000	33.000	6.000	7.000	13.000	16.000	12.000	36.000	0.2391	0.3117	0.4348	0.2391	0.0507	0.0942	0.0870	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8900
predicted_AVG	0.2284
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.2884
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3861
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0580	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5380	3.8900	3.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2284	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8880	0.8051	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1830	0.1650	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2880	0.2884	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.4910	0.4571	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2990	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3861	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.7320	0.8120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 30

All-history rows before 20260513: 30

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-1.333	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.330	0.500
predicted_BB	0.467	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	1.533	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	0.433	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.480	0.750
predicted_R	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.260	0.000	0.240	0.500
predicted_SO	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	0.000	-1.100	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.133	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	1.100	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.498	0.165
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	-0.074
predicted_H	0.565	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.141	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.214	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000
predicted_SO	1.023	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2308	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.0270	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.20	30	-	100.000	17.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	33.000	0.1700	0.2696	0.2600	0.1700	0.0200	0.0700	0.1400	0.3300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.1696
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.6150
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2414
predicted_R	0.1470
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.2300
predicted_SO	0.9630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1070	0.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6270	3.4984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1696	0.1698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.3350	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.6150	0.5647	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2414	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1330	0.1470	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2330	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1000	0.9630	1.0229	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 14

All-history rows before 20260513: 14

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	3.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.667	0.211	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	2.000	-0.786	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.929	2.000	1.071	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.429	0.800	0.071	-0.300
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.786	2.000	1.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.502	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.644	0.667	0.606	0.583
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.502	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	0.022
predicted_3B	0.086	0.015
predicted_AB	3.359	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.775	-0.011
predicted_H	0.850	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.738	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.502	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.489	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.4375	0.2500	0.0000	0.3125	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	8.000	6.000	0.3056	0.4318	0.6667	0.3056	0.0833	0.2778	0.2222	0.1667
season	0.20	14	-	45.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	7.000	11.000	7.000	0.2889	0.4286	0.6444	0.2889	0.0889	0.2444	0.2444	0.1556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.1010
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3940
predicted_R	0.4260
predicted_RBI	0.8060
predicted_SLG	0.5017
predicted_SO	0.4790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1870	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.1010	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.5020	3.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.7650	0.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.9300	0.8504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1460	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3940	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4260	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.8060	0.7384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5020	0.5017	0.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4790	0.4894	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.400	-0.292	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	1.360	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	2.000	-1.167	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.400	-0.155	-0.200
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.400	-0.518	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.238	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.238	2.000	0.762	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.366	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.360	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.238	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.255	0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.075	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	-0.117
predicted_H	1.448	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.000
predicted_R	0.614	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	-0.108

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.355 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.364)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.4545	0.4545	0.5455	0.4546	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.3500	0.3864	0.4250	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.20	42	-	168.000	49.000	8.000	10.000	29.000	30.000	17.000	52.000	0.2917	0.3548	0.5179	0.2917	0.0595	0.1726	0.1012	0.3095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3000
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1270
predicted_AVG	0.3657
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	1.5090
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3961
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.4835
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.3000	0.2550	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.1270	4.0751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3660	0.3657	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.2080	0.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3600	1.5090	1.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3961	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5440	0.6135	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3910	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4835	0.4833	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2380	1.0550	1.1298	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 22

All-history rows before 20260513: 22

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.409	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.409	3.000	0.591	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.233	0.500
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.155	0.500
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.682	0.000	-0.682	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.573	0.000	0.177	0.750
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.409	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.483	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.390	-0.019
predicted_H	0.785	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	12.000	0.2424	0.3243	0.4848	0.2424	0.0606	0.1515	0.1212	0.3636
season	0.20	22	-	75.000	20.000	5.000	6.000	15.000	9.000	9.000	19.000	0.2667	0.3452	0.5733	0.2667	0.0800	0.2000	0.1200	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1340
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5470
predicted_AVG	0.2397
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.3144
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.4240
predicted_SLG	0.4423
predicted_SO	1.0670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1340	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4090	3.5470	3.4834	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2397	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.3740	0.3901	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8500	0.7854	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1920	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3144	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.3320	0.3675	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4240	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4423	0.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	1.0670	0.9734	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 42

All-history rows before 20260513: 42

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2562

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	5.000	0.190	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.600	0.244	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.976	3.000	1.024	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.600	0.165	-0.100
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	2.000	0.405	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.494	0.800	0.006	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.476	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.967	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	-0.125
predicted_H	1.043	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.660	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.462	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.963	0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5714	0.3333	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	0.2143	0.2500	0.3333	0.2143	0.0238	0.0238	0.0476	0.2619
season	0.20	42	-	160.000	41.000	8.000	10.000	30.000	25.000	20.000	35.000	0.2562	0.3352	0.4938	0.2562	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.2188

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0760
predicted_AVG	0.2717
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3164
predicted_R	0.7050
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.4615
predicted_SO	1.0540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.2710	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	4.0760	3.9670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2717	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4760	0.2640	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1070	1.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1660	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.7050	0.6599	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3070	0.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4615	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.0540	0.9634	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 38

All-history rows before 20260513: 38

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	5.000	-0.816	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.200	-0.207	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.200	-0.061	0.050
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.200	-0.310	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.026	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	1.000	-0.026	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	1.026	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.042
predicted_H	0.726	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.277	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.569	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.188

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.1714	0.2368	0.2571	0.1714	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	30.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	15.000	20.000	39.000	0.2069	0.3114	0.3103	0.2069	0.0207	0.0965	0.1379	0.2690

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5610
predicted_AVG	0.2129
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.1930
predicted_RBI	0.5960
predicted_SLG	0.2787
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0510	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.5610	3.6667	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2129	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4540	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7580	0.7257	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.1930	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5960	0.5687	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2787	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0260	0.7050	0.8380	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 35

All-history rows before 20260513: 35

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1898

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	5.000	0.086	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.200	-0.190	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	1.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.200	-0.270	-0.200
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.277	0.200	-0.277	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.914	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.842	-0.072
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	-0.018
predicted_H	0.602	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.073	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.914

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.2703
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	12.000	35.000	0.1898	0.2697	0.2774	0.1898	0.0146	0.0511	0.0876	0.2555

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7900
predicted_AVG	0.1668
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.6320
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2401
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.1700
predicted_SLG	0.2457
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1170	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9140	3.7900	3.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1668	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.3120	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6320	0.6018	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2401	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3400	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1700	0.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2457	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1260	1.0731	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nick Lodolo (666157) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 1

All-history rows before 20260513: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	5.000	5.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.100	5.100	0.100	0.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	5.100	4.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.9375	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750
last_10	0.35	1	5.100	4.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.9375	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750
season	0.20	1	5.100	4.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.7500	1.1250	0.7500	0.9375	0.1875	0.3750	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9520
predicted_ER	2.8850
predicted_ERA	4.6273
predicted_H	5.2660
predicted_HR	0.9550
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.8320
predicted_WHIP	1.2863

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.9520	0.5816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8850	2.2637	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6273	4.6273	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.2660	4.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9550	0.2845	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.8320	4.9499	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2863	1.2863	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	78
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666157
playerID	666157
playerName	Nick Lodolo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.342	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	1.842	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	10.3846	2.7692	1.1539	1.6154	1.1539	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	9.000	8.000	12.000	4.8214	1.8214	0.5357	0.9643	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	19	17.200	6.000	16.000	11.000	22.000	3.0566	1.5283	0.3396	0.9057	0.6226	1.2453

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7330
predicted_ER	0.7100
predicted_ERA	5.3455
predicted_H	1.2740
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3770
predicted_WHIP	1.6779

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7330	0.2946	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7100	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3455	5.3455	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2740	1.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3770	2.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6779	1.6779	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 18

All-history rows before 20260513: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	0.100	0.250	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.2308	2.0769	0.6923	1.3846	0.6923	0.9231	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	11.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.2222	0.4444	0.8889	0.4444
season	0.20	17	16.000	6.000	12.000	9.000	17.000	4.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	1.0625	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5510
predicted_ER	0.6340
predicted_ERA	4.7379
predicted_H	1.2530
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1450
predicted_WHIP	1.4982

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5510	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6340	0.8566	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7379	4.7379	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2530	1.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2880	0.7210	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1450	1.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4982	1.4982	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 20

All-history rows before 20260513: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	1.000	0.025	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.5625	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	20	20.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	24.000	1.000	1.7419	1.2097	0.1935	0.6290	0.5806	1.1613	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_ER	0.3750
predicted_ERA	3.3750
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.2551

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5230	0.8006	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3750	0.1568	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3750	3.3750	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7320	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1160	1.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2551	1.2551	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260513: 19

All-history rows before 20260513: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	1.000	1.632	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	0.842	1.000	4.158	4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.711	1.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	0.7241	0.5172	0.7241	0.1035
season	0.20	19	17.000	7.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.9412	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_ER	0.4430
predicted_ERA	3.9856
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8180
predicted_WHIP	1.3205

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4730	0.7903	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4430	1.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9856	3.9856	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.8470	3.3474	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8180	0.9276	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3205	1.3205	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	42

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260512_WAS@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7