Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260512

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260512_ARI@TEX 20260512_CHC@ATL 20260512_COL@PIT 20260512_DET@NYM 20260512_KC@CHW 20260512_LAA@CLE 20260512_MIA@MIN 20260512_NYY@BAL 20260512_PHI@BOS 20260512_SD@MIL 20260512_SEA@HOU 20260512_SF@LAD 20260512_STL@OAK 20260512_TB@TOR 20260512_WAS@CIN

20260512_ARI@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.586044, "home_win_probability": 0.586044, "away_win_probability": 0.413956, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "confidence": 0.586044, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	ARI 2 - 4 TEX	TEX	0.586	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	ARI 3 - 4 TEX	TEX	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away ARI	3-7	0.300	2.90	3.90	-10	2W	cold	average
Home TEX	5-5	0.500	3.20	4	-8	2W	cold	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target ARI	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target TEX	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized ARI	34	9	3	0	0	2	9
Player finalized TEX	33	9	2	0	0	2	9
Player model fractional ARI	32.79	6.84	3.99	0.71	3.08	2.85	7.42
Player model fractional TEX	31.04	6.37	3.19	0.73	2.83	3.53	7.51
Simulation box ARI	34	7	3	1	3	1	8
Simulation box TEX	33	9	4	1	4	3	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away ARI	Starter	Zac Gallen	3.10	0	6	5	2	4.96	1.46	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Jonathan Loáisiga	1.20	1	1	2	0	3.84	1.25	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Juan Morillo	1	1	1	0	0	4.60	1.39	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Kevin Ginkel	1	1	1	0	0	4.38	1.35	True
Away ARI	Middle Reliever	Paul Sewald	1	1	0	2	1	4.14	1.30	True
Home TEX	Starter	MacKenzie Gore	4.20	2	5	3	0	5.50	1.53	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Cole Winn	1.10	1	0	3	1	4.88	1.51	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Jacob Latz	1.10	0	1	0	0	2.51	0.91	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Tyler Alexander	1	0	1	0	0	4.61	1.51	True
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Gavin Collyer	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.03	1.15	-
Home TEX	Middle Reliever	Jakob Junis	0.20	0	1	1	0	3.27	1.12	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: ARI

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2034

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	4.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.047	0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.013	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.083
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.030
predicted_H	0.702	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.285	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.188	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.2857	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.2857
season	0.20	16	-	59.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2034	0.2769	0.2373	0.2034	0.0678	0.1017	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5280
predicted_AVG	0.2050
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.7230
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2953
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.1950
predicted_SLG	0.2641
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0930	0.1085	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	3.5280	3.6053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2050	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4330	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7230	0.7022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2953	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3170	0.2846	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1950	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2641	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8620	0.8079	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	1.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.139	4.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.035	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.250	-0.014	0.000
predicted_R	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.500	-0.126	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.230	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.074
predicted_3B	0.109	0.053
predicted_AB	4.080	-0.189
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	-0.030
predicted_H	0.755	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.230	0.000
predicted_R	0.366	-0.162
predicted_RBI	0.459	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3684	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1707	0.2093	0.3902	0.1707	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.20	36	-	149.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	19.000	10.000	30.000	0.2148	0.2642	0.3758	0.2148	0.0336	0.1007	0.0671	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.1470
predicted_AB	3.9450
predicted_AVG	0.1849
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2303
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.4440
predicted_SLG	0.3803
predicted_SO	0.7150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.2660	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.1470	0.1090	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	3.9450	4.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1849	0.1849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.2270	0.2483	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.7300	0.7550	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0710	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2300	0.2303	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.2500	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4440	0.4590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3803	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.7150	0.7642	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2612

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	1.000	-0.237	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_AB	3.526	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.526	2.000	0.474	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	-0.526	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	1.079	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.750	0.139	-0.250
predicted_R	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	1.000	0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.459	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	0.750	0.250
predicted_SO	1.026	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	0.000	-0.026	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.105	-
predicted_AB	3.526	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.459	-
predicted_SO	1.026	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.026
predicted_3B	0.056	-0.049
predicted_AB	3.537	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.071
predicted_H	0.853	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.574	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.459	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.213

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2619	0.3056	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.1111	0.1944
season	0.20	38	-	134.000	35.000	9.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	24.000	20.000	39.000	0.2612	0.3608	0.5000	0.2612	0.0373	0.1492	0.1492	0.2910

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0200
predicted_AB	3.5440
predicted_AVG	0.2431
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3377
predicted_R	0.5320
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.4594
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.2820	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1050	0.0200	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5260	3.5440	3.5365	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2431	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4050	0.4555	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8620	0.8528	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3377	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.5320	0.5737	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2960	0.2935	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4590	0.4594	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0260	0.6610	0.8134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	1.000	-0.108	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	2.000	1.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.169	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.457	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.750	0.051	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	0.270	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.457	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.043
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.425	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.053
predicted_H	0.904	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.457	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3514	0.4062	0.2500	0.0312	0.0312	0.1250	0.2500
season	0.20	37	-	127.000	35.000	4.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	27.000	0.2756	0.3309	0.4488	0.2756	0.0472	0.1417	0.0787	0.2126

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4190
predicted_AVG	0.2695
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3462
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.4568
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1820	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.4190	3.4245	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2695	0.2697	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.3620	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9210	0.9036	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1510	0.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3462	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4340	0.4680	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2600	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4570	0.4568	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.7250	0.7271	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2283

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	1.000	-0.162	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.500	-0.228	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	2.000	-0.784	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.500	-0.092	-0.250
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	1.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.750	-0.370	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.541	1.000	0.459	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.081	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.203	-
predicted_BB	0.622	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	0.033
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.037
predicted_AB	3.566	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.056
predicted_H	0.716	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.411	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.367	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2105	0.3023	0.3684	0.2105	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	37	-	127.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	23.000	20.000	0.2283	0.3421	0.3701	0.2283	0.0158	0.0945	0.1811	0.1575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.6630
predicted_AVG	0.2026
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3033
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3181
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.2190	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0810	0.0170	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.6630	3.5661	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2030	0.2026	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6220	0.5260	0.5663	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7420	0.7160	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3033	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4160	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3790	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3181	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5410	0.6310	0.5932	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1967

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	4.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	-0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.000	-0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	2.000	0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.547	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	0.019
predicted_H	0.634	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.385	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2750	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.3429
season	0.20	17	-	61.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	16.000	0.1967	0.2647	0.3115	0.1967	0.0164	0.0984	0.0820	0.2623

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5100
predicted_AVG	0.1897
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.6660
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2665
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3059
predicted_SO	1.0040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2000	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.5100	3.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1897	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3300	0.3127	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6660	0.6344	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2665	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3600	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3480	0.3298	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	1.0040	0.9738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 3

All-history rows before 20260512: 3

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.450	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.069	0.069
predicted_H	0.700	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.069	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.371	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	-0.115

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000
season	0.20	3	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6830
predicted_AVG	0.2332
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_OBP	0.2792
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.3711
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2230	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6830	3.4496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2332	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2070	0.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8590	0.6996	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0880	0.0693	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4480	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.6200	0.5066	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3711	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	0.9890	1.2184	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 26

All-history rows before 20260512: 26

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3021

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	4.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.250	-0.302	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.115	1.000	-1.115	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	-0.343	-0.250
predicted_R	0.731	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.731	0.000	-0.731	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.250	-0.427	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	3.000	0.077	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.731	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.567	-0.125
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.101
predicted_H	0.740	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	29.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	5.000	24.000	0.3021	0.3431	0.4271	0.3021	0.0312	0.1250	0.0521	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.5030
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.3106
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0820	0.0967	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.4660	3.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.3750	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7810	0.7404	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3222	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7310	0.5030	0.6047	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2480	0.2355	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3106	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9840	0.9568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	699912
playerID	699912
playerName	Jose Fernandez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3175

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	4.065	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.065	4.000	-1.065	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.000	0.016	0.333
predicted_BB	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.290	0.000	-0.290	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.162	0.500
predicted_R	0.677	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.677	0.000	0.323	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.677	0.000	1.323	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.000	-0.190	0.333
predicted_SO	0.452	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	4.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.129	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.677	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	0.452	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.013	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.043
predicted_H	0.838	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.155
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.065

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2250	0.2619	0.2500	0.2250	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000
season	0.20	31	-	126.000	40.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	21.000	21.000	4.000	14.000	0.3175	0.3385	0.5238	0.3175	0.0476	0.1667	0.0318	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.9730
predicted_AVG	0.2162
predicted_BB	0.2050
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2564
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.2851
predicted_SO	0.6430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.0940	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0080	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0650	3.9730	4.0125	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1290	0.2050	0.1724	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8590	0.8380	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0523	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2564	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6770	0.4050	0.5217	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4590	0.4466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2851	0.2851	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4520	0.6430	0.5610	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Zac Gallen (668678) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	2.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	4.000	-2.500	-4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.625	6.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.675	6.000	-1.575	-2.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.125	5.000	2.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	15.000	31.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	5.7857	1.5857	0.6429	1.3286	0.2571	0.6857	0.1286
last_10	0.35	8	38.100	20.000	45.000	12.000	25.000	4.000	4.6957	1.4870	0.5217	1.1739	0.3130	0.6522	0.1043
season	0.20	8	38.100	20.000	45.000	12.000	25.000	4.000	4.6957	1.4870	0.5217	1.1739	0.3130	0.6522	0.1043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3120
predicted_ER	2.2890
predicted_ERA	4.9600
predicted_H	4.7720
predicted_HR	0.5140
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.2560
predicted_WHIP	1.4646

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3120	1.6646	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.2890	1.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9600	4.9600	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.7720	4.8888	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5140	0.2506	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.2560	4.6623	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4646	1.4646	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	5
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	6
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	28
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668678
playerID	668678
playerName	Zac Gallen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	0.150	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5710
predicted_ER	0.6990
predicted_ERA	3.8377
predicted_H	1.4690
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5550
predicted_WHIP	1.2453

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5710	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6990	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8377	3.8377	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4690	1.8602	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1920	0.7872	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5550	1.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2453	1.2453	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4230
predicted_ER	0.5010
predicted_ERA	4.6047
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9160
predicted_WHIP	1.3882

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4230	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5010	0.8734	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6047	4.6047	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9360	0.2375	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1540	0.0391	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9160	0.9787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3882	1.3882	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_ER	0.4860
predicted_ERA	4.3774
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9210
predicted_WHIP	1.3470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3660	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4860	0.8748	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3774	4.3774	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9800	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9808	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3470	1.3470	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_ER	0.4560
predicted_ERA	4.1388
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.3037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3730	0.8539	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4560	0.8732	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1388	4.1388	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9200	1.7483	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9370	0.2184	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3037	1.3037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: TEX

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.947	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.947	3.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.234	0.000	0.016	0.250
predicted_R	0.342	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_SO	1.132	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.132	1.000	-0.132	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.947	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.342	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.832	-0.115
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.012
predicted_H	0.544	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.295

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.947

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1316	0.1538	0.2368	0.1316	0.0263	0.0526	0.0263	0.2105
season	0.20	38	-	150.000	30.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	13.000	6.000	43.000	0.2000	0.2342	0.3333	0.2000	0.0333	0.1200	0.0400	0.2867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.1533
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	0.5750
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.1931
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.2307
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0780	0.1005	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9470	3.7490	3.8317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1533	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1780	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5750	0.5437	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1931	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3420	0.2980	0.3164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2870	0.2716	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	0.6260	0.8372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2809

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.296	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.296	4.000	0.704	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.469	0.500
predicted_BB	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.926	1.000	2.074	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.394	0.500
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	1.593	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.250	0.312	0.500
predicted_SO	0.741	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	2.000	0.259	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.296	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.502	0.206
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.002
predicted_H	0.828	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	0.176

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.2778	0.3571	0.4722	0.2778	0.0278	0.1389	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.20	27	-	89.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	0.2809	0.3564	0.4382	0.2809	0.0225	0.1236	0.1236	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6680
predicted_AVG	0.2472
predicted_BB	0.4040
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3204
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4132
predicted_SO	1.0600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1330	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0370	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2960	3.6680	3.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2472	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.4040	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9070	0.8279	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1340	0.1233	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3204	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3610	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4460	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4132	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	1.0600	0.9175	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-LF-2B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	0.066	0.250
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.000	-0.110	0.250
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.144	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.618	0.062
predicted_H	0.499	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.578	0.134
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.652	-0.181

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	0.1429	0.3333	0.3571	0.1429	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857	0.0714
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.1290	0.2895	0.3548	0.1290	0.0645	0.1290	0.2258	0.1935
season	0.20	36	-	114.000	21.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	30.000	0.1842	0.3088	0.3596	0.1842	0.0439	0.1140	0.1754	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1270
predicted_AVG	0.1640
predicted_BB	0.6640
predicted_H	0.5130
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3117
predicted_R	0.6770
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3637
predicted_SO	0.5180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0780	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.1270	3.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1640	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.6640	0.6180	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5130	0.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.6770	0.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4090	0.3966	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3637	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.5180	0.6523	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.820	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.733	1.000	1.267	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.043	0.250
predicted_BB	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	0.433	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.500	-0.063	-0.250
predicted_R	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.000	0.220	0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.820	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.098
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	2.817	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.465	0.032
predicted_H	0.739	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.014
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.748	-0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.3636	0.4667	0.5455	0.3636	0.0000	0.1818	0.2727	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.1786	0.2647	0.2500	0.1786	0.0000	0.1071	0.1429	0.1786
season	0.20	30	-	82.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	13.000	25.000	0.2073	0.3131	0.2805	0.2073	0.0122	0.0732	0.1585	0.3049

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2622
predicted_BB	0.4910
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3514
predicted_R	0.2420
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3904
predicted_SO	0.6790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.2780	0.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8200	2.8150	2.8172	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2622	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.4910	0.4650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7380	0.7389	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3514	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2420	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3710	0.3706	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3904	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6790	0.7480	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.108	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.061	0.250
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.250	-0.049	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.000	-0.122	0.250
predicted_SO	1.175	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.175	0.000	-0.175	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.108	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	1.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.641	-0.059
predicted_AVG	0.108	0.000
predicted_BB	0.549	-0.001
predicted_H	0.391	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.183
predicted_RBI	0.202	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	1.177	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.106 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.320)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	0.0000	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	0.1351	0.2727	0.2432	0.1351	0.0270	0.0541	0.1622	0.3513
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	22.000	47.000	0.1892	0.2989	0.3716	0.1892	0.0473	0.1284	0.1487	0.3176

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5990
predicted_AVG	0.1085
predicted_BB	0.5490
predicted_H	0.3910
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2505
predicted_R	0.2130
predicted_RBI	0.2030
predicted_SLG	0.1941
predicted_SO	1.1790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0790	0.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.5990	3.6406	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1080	0.1085	0.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.5490	0.5494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.3910	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0750	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2505	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.2130	0.3416	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2030	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1941	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1750	1.1790	1.1774	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3239

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.838	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	4.000	-0.838	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.343	0.667
predicted_BB	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	0.730	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.243	0.000	0.757	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.000	0.376	0.750
predicted_R	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.000	1.486	2.000
predicted_SO	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.622	1.000	0.378	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.838	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.622	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.123
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.888	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.102
predicted_H	1.186	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	0.087
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	-0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.838

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.4737	0.3158	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3488	0.4286	0.3333	0.0238	0.0714	0.0000	0.1191
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	46.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	17.000	10.000	23.000	0.3239	0.3742	0.5141	0.3239	0.0352	0.1409	0.0704	0.1620

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9240
predicted_AVG	0.3107
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	1.2190
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3465
predicted_R	0.6090
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.4544
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.1130	0.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8380	3.9240	3.8880	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3107	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.0940	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2190	1.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1490	0.1452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3465	0.3463	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.6090	0.5462	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3320	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4544	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6220	0.5420	0.5755	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1930

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	3.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.333	-0.193	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.333	-0.270	-0.333
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.333	-0.263	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.188	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	0.000	1.812	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.593	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.052
predicted_H	0.622	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.228	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.329	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	0.1351	0.2000	0.1622	0.1351	0.0000	0.0541	0.0811	0.3513
season	0.20	16	-	57.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	0.1930	0.2698	0.2632	0.1930	0.0175	0.0877	0.1053	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.1908
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2503
predicted_R	0.2080
predicted_RBI	0.3650
predicted_SLG	0.2553
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0870	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.6220	3.5928	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1908	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.2740	0.3231	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6910	0.6224	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0431	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2503	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2080	0.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3650	0.3285	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2553	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.1180	1.1520	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2763

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	4.000	-0.897	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.436	0.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	-0.108	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.250	-0.414	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.846	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.436	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.073
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.780	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.011
predicted_H	0.838	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.036	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.320	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.119	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.269	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.767	-0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2647	0.3902	0.2647	0.2647	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.2059
season	0.20	39	-	152.000	42.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	17.000	33.000	0.2763	0.3584	0.4145	0.2763	0.0263	0.0790	0.1118	0.2171

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6970
predicted_AVG	0.2227
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3140
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.1180
predicted_SLG	0.2685
predicted_SO	0.7110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0550	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.6970	3.7795	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2227	0.2228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4360	0.4550	0.4472	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8230	0.8383	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0340	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3140	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.2380	0.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1180	0.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2685	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.7110	0.7667	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.545	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.545	3.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.333	-0.150	-0.083
predicted_R	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.333	-0.286	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.636	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.182	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	0.007
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.841	0.296
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.072
predicted_H	0.725	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.207	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.064
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.686	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.3571	0.4375	0.3571	0.3571	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2308	0.3548	0.2692	0.2308	0.1538	0.1154	0.2692
season	0.20	11	-	28.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2857	0.2500	0.1429	0.1786	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.1960
predicted_AVG	0.2697
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3570
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3502
predicted_SO	0.7460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1060	0.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5450	3.1960	2.8412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2697	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.2970	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8620	0.7247	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0470	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3570	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1820	0.2380	0.2075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4910	0.4142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3502	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.7460	0.6861	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

MacKenzie Gore (669022) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.625	3.000	-2.625	-3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	5.000	-0.875	-3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.375	6.000	-1.375	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.825	5.100	-0.625	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	3.000	-1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	18.000	26.000	16.000	23.000	3.000	6.8451	1.7746	0.7606	1.0986	0.6761	0.9718	0.1268
last_10	0.35	8	40.000	23.000	35.000	21.000	48.000	5.000	5.1750	1.4000	0.5750	0.8750	0.5250	1.2000	0.1250
season	0.20	8	40.000	23.000	35.000	21.000	48.000	5.000	5.1750	1.4000	0.5750	0.8750	0.5250	1.2000	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5220
predicted_ER	2.8910
predicted_ERA	5.4984
predicted_H	4.7030
predicted_HR	0.6010
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.7840
predicted_WHIP	1.5268

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.5220	1.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.8910	2.4344	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4984	5.4984	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.7030	3.8302	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6010	0.8055	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.7840	4.8947	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5268	1.5268	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	5
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	74

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.18
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669022
playerID	669022
playerName	MacKenzie Gore
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.889	2.000	2.111	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.772	1.000	0.328	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	11.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.3200	0.4800	1.3200	0.3600
season	0.20	18	16.000	8.000	16.000	7.000	18.000	3.000	4.5000	1.4375	0.5000	1.0000	0.4375	1.1250	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_ER	0.5960
predicted_ERA	4.8762
predicted_H	1.2040
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1300
predicted_WHIP	1.5141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4620	0.7892	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5960	0.8417	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8762	4.8762	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2040	2.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2040	0.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1300	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5141	1.5141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	2.000	-0.119	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.8182	0.5455	0.0909	0.3636	0.1818	0.6364	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8710	0.4355	0.0968	0.2419	0.1935	0.8226	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_ER	0.3570
predicted_ERA	2.5097
predicted_H	0.7990
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0830
predicted_WHIP	0.9085

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3640	0.1522	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3570	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5097	2.5097	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7990	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0830	1.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9085	0.9085	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.200	0.095	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	2.000	0.211	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.7143	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	13.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	3.4839	1.4516	0.3871	1.2581	0.1935	0.5806	0.0968
season	0.20	19	20.000	5.000	23.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	2.2500	1.4000	0.2500	1.1500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3500
predicted_ER	0.5130
predicted_ERA	4.6133
predicted_H	1.1620
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8180
predicted_WHIP	1.5121

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3500	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5130	0.2127	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6133	4.6133	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1620	0.4818	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0556	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8180	0.9245	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5121	1.5121	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.25
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	2.000	-0.573	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.7500
season	0.20	11	9.200	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.8276	0.4138	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	3.0292
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6870
predicted_WHIP	1.1538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2760	0.0952	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0292	3.0292	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6000	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6870	1.5472	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1538	1.1538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.625	2.000	0.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.144	2.200	-0.944	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.562	2.000	0.438	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	1.3500	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5833	0.4167	0.4167
season	0.20	16	19.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	9.000	1.8947	0.7895	0.2105	0.5263	0.2632	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_ER	0.3460
predicted_ERA	3.2652
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7020
predicted_WHIP	1.1163

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3160	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3460	0.1416	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2652	3.2652	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7480	0.8968	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7020	0.8780	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1163	1.1163	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	22
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_ARI@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260512_CHC@ATL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.510619, "home_win_probability": 0.510619, "away_win_probability": 0.48938099999999995, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "confidence": 0.510619, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 7 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "CHC 5 - 6 ATL", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	CHC 6 - 7 ATL	ATL	0.511	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	CHC 5 - 6 ATL	ATL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away CHC	8-2	0.800	4.60	3.40	12	2L	average	strong
Home ATL	6-4	0.600	5.30	3.50	18	2W	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target CHC	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target ATL	-	-	7	-	-	-	-
Player finalized CHC	33	8	4	0	4	5	9
Player finalized ATL	36	9	5	0	5	2	9
Player model fractional CHC	32.79	7.26	5.00	0.98	4.36	4.82	7.49
Player model fractional ATL	34.18	8.35	4.71	1.10	4.51	2.82	7.91
Simulation box CHC	40	7	5	3	5	4	10
Simulation box ATL	39	7	6	2	6	1	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away CHC	Starter	Colin Rea	4.20	4	2	5	1	4.24	1.39	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Palencia	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.13	1.30	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Ethan Roberts	1.10	1	2	1	0	3.42	1.21	-
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Jacob Webb	1.10	0	0	0	0	3.82	1.27	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Ben Brown	1	0	0	0	0	2.49	0.99	True
Away CHC	Middle Reliever	Phil Maton	0.20	1	1	2	0	4.22	1.26	True
Away CHC	Reliever	Hoby Milner	-	-	-	-	-	3.54	1.29	-
Home ATL	Starter	Grant Holmes	3.20	3	5	4	2	4.63	1.37	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Raisel Iglesias	2	1	1	1	1	2.94	1.15	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Tyler Kinley	2	0	3	0	1	5.51	1.57	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Robert Suarez	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.55	1.09	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Dylan Lee	1	1	0	2	0	2.62	0.88	True
Home ATL	Middle Reliever	Reynaldo López	1	0	1	0	0	5.43	1.66	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: CHC

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2229

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.026	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.026	4.000	0.974	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.000	-0.023	0.200
predicted_BB	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.120	0.200
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	-0.125	0.200
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	2.000	0.205	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.026	-
predicted_AVG	0.178	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.961	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	0.009
predicted_H	0.699	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.481	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.259	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.026

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.1579	0.2889	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1842	0.2632
season	0.20	39	-	157.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	22.000	31.000	0.2229	0.3204	0.3248	0.2229	0.0191	0.0764	0.1401	0.1974

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9160
predicted_AVG	0.1783
predicted_BB	0.5790
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2859
predicted_R	0.5480
predicted_RBI	0.2580
predicted_SLG	0.2330
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1100	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0260	3.9160	3.9611	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1780	0.1783	0.1782	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.5790	0.5728	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.6980	0.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2859	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.5480	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2580	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2330	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	1.0960	0.9726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Conforto (624424) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

System season_avg: 0.3640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	4.000	1.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.364	0.250	-0.364	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.422	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.400	-0.300	-0.200
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.583	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.606	0.500	-0.606	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.455	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.818	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.422	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.583	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.456	0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.217	0.217
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.696	-0.122
predicted_H	1.017	0.117
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.422	-0.000
predicted_R	0.730	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.583	0.000
predicted_SO	0.709	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.316 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.4118	0.5000	0.8235	0.4118	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	7.000	0.3871	0.5128	0.6452	0.3871	0.0323	0.1613	0.2581	0.2258
season	0.20	11	-	33.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	8.000	0.3636	0.5000	0.6061	0.3636	0.0303	0.1515	0.2727	0.2424

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4570
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4590
predicted_AVG	0.3313
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	1.1460
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.4216
predicted_R	0.7330
predicted_RBI	0.4610
predicted_SLG	0.5831
predicted_SO	0.6880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4550	0.4570	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4590	3.2175	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3313	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8180	0.5600	0.6957	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.1460	1.0166	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1340	0.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4220	0.4216	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.7330	0.7298	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4610	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5830	0.5831	0.5830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.6880	0.7085	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.364

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	624424
playerID	624424
playerName	Michael Conforto
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.410	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.410	3.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.564	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	-0.108	0.200
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.054
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.477	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.168
predicted_H	0.606	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.183
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	-0.163

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111
season	0.20	39	-	133.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	22.000	32.000	0.1955	0.3082	0.3609	0.1955	0.0451	0.1729	0.1654	0.2406

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.1876
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2465
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.2697
predicted_SO	0.5410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0510	0.1430	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4100	3.5240	3.4765	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.2760	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6610	0.6064	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2465	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.3530	0.4840	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3080	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2697	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.5410	0.6578	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2483

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	3.000	1.275	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	0.000	-0.925	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.036
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.576	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.023
predicted_H	0.898	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.000
predicted_R	0.527	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.695	-0.305

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500	0.1250	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4571	0.2571	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.1143
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	12.000	40.000	0.2483	0.3171	0.3893	0.2483	0.0268	0.1141	0.0805	0.2685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.4700
predicted_AVG	0.2747
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9530
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3597
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.4761
predicted_SO	0.4780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1860	0.1607	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0390	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.4700	3.5759	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2747	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3400	0.3234	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9530	0.8978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1450	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3597	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4750	0.5269	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5810	0.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4761	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4780	0.6948	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	4.000	1.857	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.155	0.400	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.150	0.400
predicted_BB	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	1.214	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.400	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.087	0.400
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	0.536	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.607	0.000	1.393	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	1.200	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.723	1.200
predicted_SO	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	3.000	-0.643	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.155	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.412	0.269
predicted_AVG	0.155	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	0.023
predicted_H	0.503	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.000
predicted_R	0.433	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.538	0.078
predicted_SLG	0.325	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.157

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.0789	0.1628	0.2368	0.0790	0.0526	0.1842	0.1053	0.2105
season	0.20	28	-	88.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	13.000	9.000	18.000	0.2500	0.3131	0.4773	0.2500	0.0682	0.1932	0.1023	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.1547
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2287
predicted_R	0.4070
predicted_RBI	0.6010
predicted_SLG	0.3246
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0530	0.0611	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.6300	3.4117	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1550	0.1547	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.3620	0.3436	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5620	0.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1860	0.1654	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2287	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4070	0.4326	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.6010	0.5378	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3246	0.3248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.9270	0.7997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2733

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.282	1.000	-0.282	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.128	4.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	-0.073	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	2.000	-0.128	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.500	-0.148	-0.300
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.718	0.000	0.282	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.205	1.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.750	0.384	0.050
predicted_SO	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.252	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.077
predicted_H	0.837	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.397	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.338	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1364	0.1739	0.2273	0.1364	0.0000	0.0454	0.0454	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.2093	0.2708	0.3023	0.2093	0.0000	0.0930	0.0698	0.0233
season	0.20	39	-	161.000	44.000	11.000	4.000	28.000	19.000	16.000	15.000	0.2733	0.3478	0.4161	0.2733	0.0248	0.1739	0.0994	0.0932

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2390
predicted_AVG	0.1970
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2514
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.3058
predicted_SO	0.3060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2820	0.3460	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	4.2390	4.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1970	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.2800	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8350	0.8370	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2514	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.4010	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3940	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3850	0.3060	0.3383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2329

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	1.795	2.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	0.256	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.267	0.167
predicted_BB	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	1.000	1.128	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.333	0.255	0.267
predicted_R	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.436	0.000	0.564	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.333	0.637	0.667
predicted_SO	0.974	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.436	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.033
predicted_3B	0.033	0.007
predicted_AB	3.548	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.736	0.121
predicted_H	1.061	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.841	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4762	0.3750	0.3125	0.0000	0.2500	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	0.3939	0.5116	0.6667	0.3939	0.0303	0.3636	0.2727	0.2424
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	24.000	38.000	0.2329	0.3448	0.3630	0.2329	0.0205	0.1507	0.1644	0.2603

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2610
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.4110
predicted_AVG	0.3132
predicted_BB	0.8200
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.4393
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.8480
predicted_SLG	0.4629
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2610	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0370	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.4110	3.5482	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.8200	0.7355	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0680	1.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0590	0.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4393	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4360	0.3070	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.8480	0.8406	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4629	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.8380	0.8941	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.760	4.000	-0.760	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.035	0.333
predicted_BB	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.640	0.000	0.360	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.120	0.000	-0.120	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.000	0.193	0.600
predicted_R	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.760	0.000	0.240	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.360	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.000	0.780	1.333
predicted_SO	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.040	3.000	0.960	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.640	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.760	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	1.040	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.036
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.708	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.698	0.058
predicted_H	0.809	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.189	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.672	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.592	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	1.005	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.2778	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	8.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3778	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.1944	0.2222	0.2778
season	0.20	25	-	94.000	28.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	16.000	26.000	0.2979	0.4071	0.5532	0.2979	0.0745	0.1702	0.1702	0.2766

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2267
predicted_BB	0.7440
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3566
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.6090
predicted_SLG	0.4391
predicted_SO	0.9770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.1840	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.6670	3.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2267	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6400	0.7440	0.6984	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8310	0.8086	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1960	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3566	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7600	0.6030	0.6719	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6090	0.5919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4391	0.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0400	0.9770	1.0046	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2329

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	1.256	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.744	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.744	0.000	-0.744	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	0.000	-0.872	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	-0.473	0.000
predicted_SO	1.385	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.385	3.000	-0.385	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.744	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.795	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	1.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.033	0.007
predicted_AB	3.638	-0.106
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.725	-0.019
predicted_H	0.831	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.876	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.498	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.415	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	11.000	10.000	15.000	0.2424	0.4186	0.5152	0.2424	0.0606	0.1212	0.3030	0.4546
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	31.000	29.000	54.000	0.2329	0.3672	0.4726	0.2329	0.0616	0.1233	0.1986	0.3699

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.5640
predicted_AVG	0.2333
predicted_BB	0.7110
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3606
predicted_R	0.9320
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.4419
predicted_SO	1.4360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0820	0.1116	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0380	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.5640	3.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2333	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7440	0.7110	0.7246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8310	0.8306	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1950	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3606	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7950	0.9320	0.8757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4970	0.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4419	0.4419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3850	1.4360	1.4150	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Colin Rea (607067) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	3.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.125	1.000	1.875	3.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	5.000	6.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.575	5.100	-0.375	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	4.375	5.000	-2.375	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	13.000	30.000	9.000	25.000	3.000	4.3875	1.4625	0.4875	1.1250	0.3375	0.9375	0.1125
last_10	0.35	8	38.000	17.000	40.000	12.000	35.000	4.000	4.0263	1.3684	0.4474	1.0526	0.3158	0.9211	0.1053
season	0.20	8	38.000	17.000	40.000	12.000	35.000	4.000	4.0263	1.3684	0.4474	1.0526	0.3158	0.9211	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7310
predicted_ER	2.3320
predicted_ERA	4.2423
predicted_H	5.1430
predicted_HR	0.5800
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.6600
predicted_WHIP	1.3897

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7310	1.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.3320	3.1868	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2423	4.2423	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.1430	5.0697	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5800	0.7952	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.6600	3.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3897	1.3897	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.03
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	607067
playerID	607067
playerName	Colin Rea
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.200	0.313	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429
season	0.20	8	7.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.5714	1.1429	0.2857	0.8571	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.5550
predicted_ERA	4.1268
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1710
predicted_WHIP	1.2982

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4750	0.1518	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5550	0.1773	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1268	4.1268	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0970	0.3505	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1790	0.0572	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1710	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2982	1.2982	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ethan Roberts (681799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 5

All-history rows before 20260512: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	2.000	0.200	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529
last_10	0.35	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529
season	0.20	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.4840
predicted_ERA	3.4225
predicted_H	1.0170
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0770
predicted_WHIP	1.2079

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5190	0.1584	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4840	0.8425	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4225	3.4225	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0170	1.0052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0770	1.7183	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2079	1.2079	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	681799
playerID	681799
playerName	Ethan Roberts
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.059	2.000	-1.059	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	1.000	0.276	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.059	1.000	-1.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.7000	0.7500	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	1.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	3.6000	1.5000	0.4000	1.2000	0.3000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	16.100	7.000	18.000	8.000	18.000	3.000	3.8571	1.5918	0.4286	1.1020	0.4898	1.1020	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_ER	0.5350
predicted_ERA	3.8208
predicted_H	1.1370
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2680
predicted_WHIP	1.2659

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4590	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5350	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8208	3.8208	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1370	0.4478	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2680	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2659	1.2659	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 13

All-history rows before 20260512: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.385	0.000	-1.385	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.192	4.000	-1.192	-3.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	2.077	3.000	-2.077	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.0938	0.2812	0.2812	0.6562	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	2.000	12.000	5.000	19.000	0.000	0.8571	0.8095	0.0952	0.5714	0.2381	0.9048	0.0000
season	0.20	13	29.200	6.000	18.000	9.000	27.000	1.000	1.8202	0.9101	0.2023	0.6067	0.3034	0.9101	0.0337

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_ER	0.4360
predicted_ERA	2.4890
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3710
predicted_WHIP	0.9949

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5070	0.2313	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4360	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4890	2.4890	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0630	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3710	0.6254	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9949	0.9949	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.82
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.909	0.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.709	1.100	-0.509	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.182	2.000	-0.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000	0.2143	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	1.000	8.0000	1.6667	0.8889	1.1111	0.5556	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	11	9.200	8.000	10.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	7.4483	1.5517	0.8276	1.0345	0.5172	1.3448	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.3560
predicted_ERA	4.2204
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8020
predicted_WHIP	1.2559

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2920	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3560	0.7779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2204	4.2204	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6610	1.5383	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0830	0.6838	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8020	0.9317	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2559	1.2559	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Hoby Milner (571948) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	0.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_ER	-	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_H	-	0.000	-	Pitching_H	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_IP	-	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.765	0.200	1.235	1.800
predicted_SO	-	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	2.4545	1.3636	0.2727	0.8182	0.5454	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	3.0000	1.2222	0.3333	0.5556	0.6667	0.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	2.4545	1.0364	0.2727	0.7091	0.3273	0.3273	0.1091

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_ER	0.2170
predicted_ERA	3.5410
predicted_H	0.4630
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.4230
predicted_WHIP	1.2905

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2480	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2170	0.0880	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5410	3.5410	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4630	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0550	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4230	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2905	1.2905	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	571948
playerID	571948
playerName	Hoby Milner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: ATL

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3008

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	4.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.250	-0.301	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.156	1.000	-1.156	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.250	-0.126	-0.050
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	-0.438	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.480	0.250	-0.480	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.922	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.130	-0.026
predicted_H	1.077	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.298	-0.000
predicted_R	0.414	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.797	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2821	0.2927	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0769	0.0256	0.2308
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	37.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	0.3008	0.3256	0.4797	0.3008	0.0488	0.1545	0.0406	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9810
predicted_AVG	0.2793
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2979
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.3614
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1550	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.9810	3.9221	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2793	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1110	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1120	1.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.3960	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3490	0.3365	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3614	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8330	0.7973	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.902	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.902	4.000	1.098	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	0.000	-1.195	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.732	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.732	0.000	-0.732	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.610	0.000	-0.610	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.000	-0.506	0.000
predicted_SO	0.537	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.902	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.317	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.732	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.537	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.978	0.076
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.303	-0.014
predicted_H	0.892	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.651	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.902

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	6.000	0.2750	0.3333	0.4250	0.2750	0.0250	0.1250	0.1000	0.1500
season	0.20	41	-	160.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	13.000	22.000	0.3063	0.3559	0.5062	0.3063	0.0500	0.1562	0.0813	0.1375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0310
predicted_AVG	0.2251
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.2749
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.3260
predicted_SO	0.7030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1530	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9020	4.0310	3.9780	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2251	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3170	0.2940	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9070	0.8918	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0830	0.0818	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2749	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7320	0.5940	0.6507	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4790	0.4712	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3260	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5370	0.7030	0.6347	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ha-Seong Kim (673490) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 0

All-history rows before 20260512: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.019	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.921	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.515	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.879	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.019	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.921	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.459	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.002
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.741	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.001
predicted_BB	0.336	-0.015
predicted_H	0.923	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.113	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.001
predicted_R	0.509	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.000
predicted_SO	0.873	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1810	0.1756	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0190	0.0140	0.0179	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.7990	3.7411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2443	0.2464	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.2840	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9210	0.9280	0.9226	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1210	0.1125	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3057	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.4900	0.5093	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4590	0.4730	0.4622	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3948	0.3934	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	0.8540	0.8733	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.140	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.024	4.000	0.976	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.297	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	1.000	-1.195	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	1.000	-0.244	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.250	-0.383	-0.250
predicted_R	0.854	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.854	1.000	0.146	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.780	1.000	-0.780	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	1.000	-0.509	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.951	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	1.000	0.049	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.140	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.854	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.916	-0.224
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.585	0.097
predicted_H	0.897	-0.053
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.236	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.654	-0.200
predicted_RBI	0.585	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	1.114	0.163

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.140

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.5263	0.2632	0.0790	0.1842	0.1842	0.3421
season	0.20	41	-	165.000	49.000	5.000	10.000	32.000	35.000	20.000	39.000	0.2970	0.3830	0.5091	0.2970	0.0606	0.1939	0.1212	0.2364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7610
predicted_AVG	0.2290
predicted_BB	0.6510
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.2270
predicted_OBP	0.3497
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.5610
predicted_SLG	0.4303
predicted_SO	1.2260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0740	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1400	3.7610	3.9157	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2290	0.2290	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.6510	0.5845	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.8610	0.8973	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2270	0.2364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3497	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8540	0.5160	0.6539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.5610	0.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4303	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	1.2260	1.1138	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

System season_avg: 0.3480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3485

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	3.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.348	0.333	-0.348	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	1.000	0.842	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.211	1.000	-1.211	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.500	-0.130	-0.250
predicted_R	0.579	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.895	0.000	-0.895	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.576	0.667	-0.576	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.421	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.421	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.588	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.019
predicted_H	0.979	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.106	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.125
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.493	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3415	0.4737	0.3158	0.0263	0.1842	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	23.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	0.3485	0.3803	0.5758	0.3485	0.0606	0.2576	0.0454	0.1212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6910
predicted_AVG	0.2871
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.1060
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_OBP	0.3390
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4202
predicted_SO	0.5590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.2120	0.1863	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.6910	3.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2871	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1940	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0600	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1060	0.1060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0900	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3390	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.3400	0.4536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5020	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4202	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4210	0.5590	0.4934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.348

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.300	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.221	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.241	0.500
predicted_R	0.393	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	3.786	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.245	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.000	1.260	1.500
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	2.000	-0.929	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.221	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.245	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.593	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.165	-0.085
predicted_H	0.651	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.221	-0.000
predicted_R	0.352	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.147	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.245	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2286	0.2000	0.0286	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	28	-	100.000	20.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	7.000	26.000	0.2000	0.2593	0.2400	0.2000	0.0600	0.0700	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.1979
predicted_BB	0.0980
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2205
predicted_R	0.3190
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2447
predicted_SO	0.8040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0880	0.1123	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6110	3.5933	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1979	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.0980	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7150	0.6509	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2210	0.2205	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3190	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1600	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2450	0.2447	0.2448	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.8040	0.8592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2956

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.366	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.878	4.000	1.122	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.250	0.104	0.150
predicted_BB	0.537	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	1.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_HR	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.341	1.000	0.659	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	0.023	0.150
predicted_R	0.878	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.878	1.000	0.122	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.878	1.000	0.122	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.606	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.654	1.000	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	1.073	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.073	3.000	-0.073	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.878	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.537	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.878	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.606	-
predicted_SO	1.073	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-0.129
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.840	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.496	-0.041
predicted_H	1.013	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.381	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.786	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.764	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.606	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.181	0.108

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.098

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.878

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.7105	0.2632	0.1316	0.2105	0.1579	0.2895
season	0.20	41	-	159.000	47.000	15.000	14.000	36.000	36.000	22.000	44.000	0.2956	0.3770	0.6541	0.2956	0.0881	0.2264	0.1384	0.2767

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8130
predicted_AVG	0.2661
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_H	1.0150
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3810
predicted_OBP	0.3460
predicted_R	0.7220
predicted_RBI	0.7670
predicted_SLG	0.6055
predicted_SO	1.2550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3660	0.1480	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8780	3.8130	3.8396	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2661	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5370	0.4670	0.4957	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0150	1.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.3810	0.3806	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3460	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8780	0.7220	0.7859	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.7670	0.7641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6060	0.6055	0.6057	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0730	1.2550	1.1805	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2157

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.825	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.825	4.000	1.175	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.250	-0.016	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	1.000	0.175	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.250	-0.088	-0.050
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.250	-0.159	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	1.000	-0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.825	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.813	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.066
predicted_H	0.845	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.000
predicted_R	0.507	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.512	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	1.258	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.825

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.4474	0.2632	0.0526	0.1842	0.0526	0.4210
season	0.20	40	-	153.000	33.000	7.000	5.000	24.000	21.000	14.000	46.000	0.2157	0.2882	0.3595	0.2157	0.0327	0.1569	0.0915	0.3006

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8040
predicted_AVG	0.2321
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.8830
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2775
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.3541
predicted_SO	1.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1630	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8250	3.8040	3.8127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2321	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2380	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8830	0.8446	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0990	0.0953	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2775	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.4940	0.5068	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5340	0.5117	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3541	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.3350	1.2585	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2708

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	1.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	5.000	0.308	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.200	0.229	0.300
predicted_BB	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.200	0.069	0.200
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	3.000	0.410	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.400	0.090	0.100
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.282	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	0.014
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.788	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.064
predicted_H	1.079	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000
predicted_SO	0.702	0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.2368	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	39	-	144.000	39.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	23.000	18.000	11.000	26.000	0.2708	0.3312	0.4097	0.2708	0.0139	0.1597	0.0764	0.1806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.8570
predicted_AVG	0.2942
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3661
predicted_R	0.3230
predicted_RBI	0.8130
predicted_SLG	0.4104
predicted_SO	0.7270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2800	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0410	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.8570	3.7881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2820	0.3910	0.3455	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1350	1.0786	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3661	0.3661	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.3230	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.8130	0.7700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4104	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7270	0.7019	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Grant Holmes (656550) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.429	3.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.571	5.000	0.429	-2.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.571	7.000	-0.571	-3.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.200	5.000	-2.000	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.143	4.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	15.000	26.000	12.000	21.000	5.000	5.1266	1.4430	0.5696	0.9873	0.4557	0.7975	0.1899
last_10	0.35	7	37.100	18.000	32.000	17.000	29.000	6.000	4.3393	1.3125	0.4821	0.8571	0.4554	0.7768	0.1607
season	0.20	7	37.100	18.000	32.000	17.000	29.000	6.000	4.3393	1.3125	0.4821	0.8571	0.4554	0.7768	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9690
predicted_ER	2.3860
predicted_ERA	4.6289
predicted_H	4.4050
predicted_HR	0.7430
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.9960
predicted_WHIP	1.3741

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9690	1.9853	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.3860	2.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6289	4.6289	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.4050	4.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7430	0.8782	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.9960	4.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3741	1.3741	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.34
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	656550
playerID	656550
playerName	Grant Holmes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 10

All-history rows before 20260512: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.020	1.000	0.980	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.8000	0.6000	0.2000	1.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	1.000	14.000	0.6562	0.5625	0.0938	1.3125
season	0.20	10	10.200	6.000	1.000	14.000	0.6562	0.5625	0.0938	1.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.5570
predicted_ERA	2.9449
predicted_H	1.4190
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9490
predicted_WHIP	1.1471

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5330	0.8350	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5570	0.8435	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9449	2.9449	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4190	1.1480	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1530	0.7007	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9490	1.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1471	1.1471	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	2.000	-0.368	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	1.000	1.137	1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.3846	2.3077	1.1539	1.6154	0.6923	1.3846	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.0714	0.7500	1.3929	0.3214
season	0.20	19	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	19.000	3.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	1.0961	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7990
predicted_ER	0.9750
predicted_ERA	5.5121
predicted_H	1.7070
predicted_HR	0.4190
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.7660
predicted_WHIP	1.5741

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7990	0.9196	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9750	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5121	5.5121	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7070	0.6826	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4190	0.1675	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.7660	2.5065	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5741	1.5741	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	1.100	0.141	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5625	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.0000	0.7000	0.0000	0.5000	0.2000	0.8000
season	0.20	17	17.000	1.000	12.000	3.000	16.000	0.5294	0.8824	0.0588	0.7059	0.1765	0.9412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_ER	0.3390
predicted_ERA	2.5451
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0750
predicted_WHIP	1.0944

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3640	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3390	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5451	2.5451	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9480	0.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0750	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0944	1.0944	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.368	1.000	1.632	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	0.000	-1.211	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	1.7647
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	0.8438	0.2812	0.0938	0.1875	0.0938	1.4062
season	0.20	19	18.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	23.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.3750	0.1071	1.2321

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	2.6152
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.2030
predicted_WHIP	0.8751

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2420	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2910	0.7111	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6152	2.6152	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6330	1.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0740	0.6227	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2030	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8751	0.8751	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Reynaldo López (625643) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.625	1.000	-1.625	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.375	2.000	-1.375	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	3.125	4.000	-3.125	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.275	2.000	-2.275	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	1.000	-2.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	9.000	15.000	8.000	11.000	2.000	7.3636	2.0909	0.8182	1.3636	0.7273	1.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	8	26.200	11.000	25.000	13.000	24.000	5.000	3.7125	1.4250	0.4125	0.9375	0.4875	0.9000	0.1875
season	0.20	8	26.200	11.000	25.000	13.000	24.000	5.000	3.7125	1.4250	0.4125	0.9375	0.4875	0.9000	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1030
predicted_ER	1.2160
predicted_ERA	5.4296
predicted_H	2.2530
predicted_HR	0.3270
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.9440
predicted_WHIP	1.6644

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1030	0.5377	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.2160	0.5928	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4296	5.4296	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.2530	1.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3270	0.1594	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.0000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9440	1.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6644	1.6644	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	42
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	625643
playerID	625643
playerName	Reynaldo López
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

20260512_COL@PIT

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "confidence": 0.6033, "home_win_probability": 0.6033, "away_win_probability": 0.39670000000000005, "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 8 PIT", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "predicted_score_text": "COL 2 - 8 PIT", "confidence": 0.6033, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 2 - 8 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 1 - 8 PIT", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	COL 2 - 8 PIT	PIT	0.603	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	COL 1 - 8 PIT	PIT	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away COL	2-8	0.200	4.20	7.20	-30	2L	average	weak
Home PIT	6-4	0.600	5.80	4.40	14	1L	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target COL	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target PIT	-	-	8	-	-	-	-
Player finalized COL	35	9	4	0	1	1	9
Player finalized PIT	34	9	4	0	4	3	8
Player model fractional COL	33.74	8.57	4.40	1.15	3.86	2.83	9.09
Player model fractional PIT	34.27	8.09	4.98	1.16	4.64	4.81	8.46
Simulation box COL	33	6	1	0	1	0	13
Simulation box PIT	32	9	8	3	8	9	13

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away COL	Starter	Michael Lorenzen	4.10	5	9	6	5	5.63	1.64	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Juan Mejia	1.20	0	1	1	0	3.93	1.38	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Antonio Senzatela	1	0	2	1	0	2.85	1.12	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Victor Vodnik	1	3	1	1	4	5.92	1.50	True
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Brennan Bernardino	0.20	1	2	1	0	5.47	1.37	-
Away COL	Middle Reliever	Jaden Hill	0.20	1	1	1	0	5.27	1.76	-
Home PIT	Starter	Paul Skenes	5.20	0	8	1	0	2.58	0.86	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Gregory Soto	1.10	1	0	2	0	2.70	0.91	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Dennis Santana	1	0	2	2	0	5.89	1.66	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Isaac Mattson	1	0	3	1	0	8.24	1.66	True
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Yohan Ramírez	1	1	2	1	0	5.70	1.47	-
Home PIT	Middle Reliever	Mason Montgomery	0.20	0	2	0	0	2.80	1.15	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: COL

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	1.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.250	-0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.686	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.250	-0.007	0.250
predicted_SO	1.629	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.629	1.000	-1.629	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	1.629	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.059	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.030
predicted_H	1.033	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.226	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.548	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.467	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	1.379	-0.250

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	0.2381	0.2889	0.4762	0.2381	0.0714	0.1429	0.0714	0.3333
season	0.20	35	-	140.000	34.000	7.000	10.000	16.000	24.000	11.000	57.000	0.2429	0.3117	0.5071	0.2429	0.0714	0.1143	0.0786	0.4071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1010
predicted_AVG	0.2578
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3065
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.4502
predicted_SO	1.1980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0950	0.1390	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.1010	4.0587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.2630	0.2844	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0570	1.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2300	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3065	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.4490	0.5483	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4800	0.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4502	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6290	1.1980	1.3785	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	2.000	0.481	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.500	-0.034	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.519	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.519	1.000	-0.519	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.667	-0.126	-0.417
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.500	-0.150	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.111	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.620	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.519	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.036	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.711	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	0.054
predicted_H	0.881	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	1.259	0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	14.000	0.3077	0.4130	0.4615	0.3077	0.0256	0.1026	0.1795	0.3590
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	27.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	30.000	0.2842	0.3761	0.4000	0.2842	0.0210	0.1263	0.1474	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2375
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	0.8980
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3457
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.2830
predicted_SLG	0.3303
predicted_SO	1.3760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0840	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0360	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6200	3.7830	3.7111	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2375	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5190	0.6160	0.5732	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8980	0.8812	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0628	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5790	0.5689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2830	0.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3303	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.3760	1.2591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2523

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	4.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.002	0.250
predicted_BB	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	0.000	0.069	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_R	0.586	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.586	0.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.105	0.250
predicted_SO	1.310	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.310	1.000	0.690	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.586	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	1.310	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.773	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	0.014
predicted_H	0.907	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.091
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	1.219	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.3500	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	29	-	107.000	27.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	17.000	9.000	38.000	0.2523	0.3162	0.3551	0.2523	0.0187	0.1215	0.0841	0.3551

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8380
predicted_AVG	0.2539
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3163
predicted_R	0.7470
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.3854
predicted_SO	1.1480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.0920	0.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.8380	3.7734	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2539	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.3350	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9750	0.9074	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3163	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5860	0.7470	0.6768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4230	0.3955	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3854	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3100	1.1480	1.2187	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	4.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.611	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	1.000	2.389	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.049
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.918	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.148	-0.019
predicted_H	0.939	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.286	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.469	0.080
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3488	0.4474	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	18	-	70.000	18.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2571	0.3418	0.3571	0.2571	0.0286	0.1286	0.0429	0.1571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9430
predicted_AVG	0.2489
predicted_BB	0.1320
predicted_H	0.9820
predicted_HBP	0.2860
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_OBP	0.3214
predicted_R	0.5390
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4137
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.1470	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.9430	3.9178	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2489	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1320	0.1483	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9820	0.9391	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2860	0.2860	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1650	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3214	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.5390	0.4691	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4630	0.4430	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4137	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.7980	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-RF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.862	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.862	4.000	0.138	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.250	-0.312	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.207	1.000	-1.207	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.250	-0.361	-0.250
predicted_R	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	0.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.688	0.250	-0.688	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.172	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.172	2.000	-0.172	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.862	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.690	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.172	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.075	0.041
predicted_AB	3.905	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	0.005
predicted_H	0.960	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.166	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.136
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	1.314	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.862

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	0.2750	0.3556	0.6000	0.2750	0.0750	0.1250	0.1000	0.3750
season	0.20	29	-	112.000	35.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	20.000	8.000	34.000	0.3125	0.3607	0.6875	0.3125	0.0982	0.1786	0.0714	0.3036

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.1070
predicted_AB	3.9380
predicted_AVG	0.2479
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.3041
predicted_R	0.4500
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.4832
predicted_SO	1.4220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.2030	0.2195	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.1070	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8620	3.9380	3.9051	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2479	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2850	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9760	0.9604	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1700	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3041	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6900	0.4500	0.5540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3480	0.3445	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4832	0.4831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1720	1.4220	1.3136	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2695

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	3.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.333	-0.020	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.027	1.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.500	-0.088	-0.250
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.333	-0.161	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.703	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	1.000	2.297	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.935	0.124
predicted_AVG	0.287	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.019
predicted_H	1.106	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.695	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.3023	0.3478	0.4651	0.3023	0.0465	0.1163	0.0465	0.1628
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	13.000	26.000	0.2695	0.3376	0.4113	0.2695	0.0284	0.1418	0.0922	0.1844

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.0240
predicted_AVG	0.2866
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3558
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.4660
predicted_SLG	0.4391
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0870	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0154	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	4.0240	3.9350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2866	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3180	0.3318	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1530	1.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1710	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3558	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.5430	0.4741	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4660	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4391	0.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.6900	0.6954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	0.000	-0.240
predicted_3B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.333	0.053
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	-0.240
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.840	1.000	0.160
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.333	-0.008
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.520	0.000	-0.520
predicted_SLG	0.657	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.333	-0.160
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.080	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.657	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.096	0.016
predicted_AB	3.186	0.186
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	0.044
predicted_H	0.926	0.156
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.201	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.150
predicted_RBI	0.793	0.133
predicted_SLG	0.657	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.620	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.8824	0.3529	0.1177	0.4118	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.3667	0.4242	0.7333	0.3667	0.0667	0.3000	0.1000	0.1667
season	0.20	25	-	75.000	21.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	0.2800	0.3415	0.4933	0.2800	0.0267	0.1733	0.0800	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	3.3460
predicted_AVG	0.3167
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2280
predicted_OBP	0.3793
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.9080
predicted_SLG	0.6566
predicted_SO	0.6370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2320	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0800	0.1100	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3460	3.1857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.3220	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	1.0600	0.9257	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2280	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3793	0.3792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.5990	0.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.9080	0.7931	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6570	0.6566	0.6568	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6370	0.6199	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	-1.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.667	-0.200	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.667	0.085	-0.333
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.667	-0.281	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	0.000	-0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	-0.091
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	-0.120
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.006
predicted_H	0.713	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.255	-0.000
predicted_R	0.192	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.028	-0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	0.1875	0.2703	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2812
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	27.000	8.000	1.000	10.000	9.000	7.000	40.000	0.2000	0.2483	0.2815	0.2000	0.0074	0.0741	0.0519	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.2122
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2548
predicted_R	0.1500
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.2515
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.0640	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.5430	3.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2122	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2040	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7520	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2548	0.2549	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.1500	0.1922	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3940	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.9670	1.0278	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3217

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.594	4.000	0.406	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.156	1.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.250	-0.136	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.250	0.048	0.250
predicted_SO	0.839	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	1.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.622	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	0.085
predicted_H	1.104	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.446	0.059
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.420	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.870	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	0.3429	0.4250	0.4286	0.3429	0.0000	0.0857	0.1429	0.2286
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	37.000	9.000	2.000	16.000	12.000	10.000	26.000	0.3217	0.3760	0.4522	0.3217	0.0174	0.1391	0.0870	0.2261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2390
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.3240
predicted_BB	0.4720
predicted_H	1.1520
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.4031
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.3270
predicted_SLG	0.4198
predicted_SO	0.8930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2900	0.2390	0.2610	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.5550	3.6219	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.4720	0.4077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1520	1.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4031	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.4910	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3270	0.3153	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4198	0.4199	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	0.8930	0.8697	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Michael Lorenzen (547179) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 9

All-history rows before 20260512: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	1.333	3.000	3.667	2.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	3.333	7.000	1.667	-2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.889	11.000	-0.889	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.178	5.000	-0.078	-0.900
predicted_SO	9.000	9.000	9.000	Pitching_SO	2.889	2.000	6.111	7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	17.000	36.000	8.000	16.000	4.000	6.1200	1.7600	0.6800	1.4400	0.3200	0.6400	0.1600
last_10	0.35	9	39.000	30.000	62.000	12.000	26.000	7.000	6.9231	1.8974	0.7692	1.5897	0.3077	0.6667	0.1795
season	0.20	9	39.000	30.000	62.000	12.000	26.000	7.000	6.9231	1.8974	0.7692	1.5897	0.3077	0.6667	0.1795

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5570
predicted_ER	2.8760
predicted_ERA	5.6302
predicted_H	5.9690
predicted_HR	0.7060
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.4940
predicted_WHIP	1.6371

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.5570	3.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.8760	3.9399	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6302	5.6302	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.9690	5.9845	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.7060	1.8550	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	9.0000	3.4940	6.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6371	1.6371	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	6
R	5
ER	5
BB	5
SO	9
HR	3
BF	26
Pitches	113

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	6.92
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	11
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	547179
playerID	547179
playerName	Michael Lorenzen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.375	1.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.000	0.137	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.562	1.000	-0.562	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.6667	2.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5000	0.4167	1.0833	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	16	19.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	4.6552	1.6034	0.5172	1.1379	0.4655	1.2931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6840
predicted_ER	0.6650
predicted_ERA	3.9329
predicted_H	1.4080
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9950
predicted_WHIP	1.3752

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6840	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6650	0.2734	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9329	3.9329	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4080	1.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1930	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.9950	1.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3752	1.3752	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.182	1.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.936	2.000	-0.936	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	21.200	3.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	1.2462	0.8308	0.1385	0.5538	0.2769	0.8769
season	0.20	11	24.100	3.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	1.1096	0.8219	0.1233	0.5343	0.2877	0.9041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5460
predicted_ER	0.4830
predicted_ERA	2.8533
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.2760
predicted_WHIP	1.1165

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5460	0.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4830	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8533	2.8533	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1560	1.0679	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0431	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2760	1.6849	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1165	1.1165	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	0.643	1.000	3.357	3.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.786	0.000	2.214	3.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.357	0.000	-0.357	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	2.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	7.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.1176	1.7647	1.2353	1.0588	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	9.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	6.9429	1.8000	0.7714	1.0286	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857
season	0.20	14	15.200	11.000	19.000	9.000	14.000	2.000	6.3191	1.7872	0.7021	1.2128	0.5745	0.8936	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5270
predicted_ER	0.6870
predicted_ERA	5.9220
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0630
predicted_WHIP	1.4978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	0.5270	2.6467	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.6870	2.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9220	5.9220	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0380	1.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0534	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0630	1.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4978	1.4978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Brennan Bernardino (657514) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	3.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	-0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	1.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	11.2500	1.7500	1.2500	1.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.1538	0.5769	1.0385	0.1154	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2667	0.4000	1.0000	0.2667	0.8667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2240
predicted_ER	0.4310
predicted_ERA	5.4663
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6470
predicted_WHIP	1.3672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2240	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4310	0.7807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4663	5.4663	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7470	0.9025	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6470	1.4786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3672	1.3672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	657514
playerID	657514
playerName	Brennan Bernardino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	1.000	-0.406	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	4.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	9.8182	3.0000	1.0909	2.4545	0.5454	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	9.000	1.000	5.8696	2.4783	0.6522	1.5652	0.9130	1.1739	0.1304
season	0.20	16	13.200	6.000	15.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	3.9512	1.7561	0.4390	1.0976	0.6585	1.0976	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_ER	0.4040
predicted_ERA	5.2744
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7010
predicted_WHIP	1.7603

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3400	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4040	0.7757	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2744	5.2744	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8750	0.9530	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7010	0.8875	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7603	1.7603	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.95
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PIT

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	5.000	0.242	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.200	-0.008	0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	0.030	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	1.000	0.909	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.333	-0.076	-0.083
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	1.000	1.455	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.800	0.597	0.200
predicted_SO	1.182	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	1.000	0.818	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.821	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.370	0.037
predicted_H	0.889	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.237	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2609	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.3158	0.3864	0.5263	0.3158	0.0263	0.1579	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	33	-	124.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	15.000	11.000	39.000	0.2581	0.3261	0.4032	0.2581	0.0242	0.1452	0.0887	0.3145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.8670
predicted_AVG	0.2507
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3157
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.5680
predicted_SLG	0.4174
predicted_SO	1.2780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1460	0.1486	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0420	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	3.8670	3.8206	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2507	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3970	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9700	0.8892	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1380	0.1261	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3157	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4550	0.4550	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5680	0.5221	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4174	0.4172	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.2780	1.2372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2518

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.564	4.000	-0.564	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.082	0.083
predicted_BB	0.846	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.846	1.000	1.154	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	1.000	0.103	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.400	0.200	0.200
predicted_R	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	1.000	0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.250	-0.070	0.083
predicted_SO	1.128	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.128	1.000	-0.128	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.564	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.846	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.128	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.005
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.536	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.818	-0.028
predicted_H	0.783	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.563	-0.129
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.961	-0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	10.000	0.2571	0.4222	0.4857	0.2571	0.0286	0.1714	0.2857	0.2857
season	0.20	39	-	139.000	35.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	23.000	27.000	33.000	44.000	0.2518	0.4000	0.4029	0.2518	0.0288	0.1655	0.2374	0.3165

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.5160
predicted_AVG	0.2234
predicted_BB	0.7990
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3672
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.3395
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1360	0.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0410	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5640	3.5160	3.5358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2234	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8460	0.7990	0.8184	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7850	0.7829	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3672	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.4730	0.5632	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4230	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1280	0.8440	0.9610	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.941	6.000	1.059	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.167	0.279	0.433
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.265	1.000	1.735	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.167	0.219	0.433
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.167	0.234	0.433
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.933	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	0.116
predicted_H	1.027	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.373	-0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.941

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3750	0.3000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	0.2821	0.4043	0.3077	0.2821	0.0769	0.1538	0.1795
season	0.20	34	-	134.000	43.000	6.000	18.000	16.000	10.000	26.000	0.3209	0.3810	0.3657	0.3209	0.1343	0.0746	0.1940

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9270
predicted_AVG	0.2701
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3728
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3292
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1630	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9410	3.9270	3.9329	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2701	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.4940	0.4097	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0610	1.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3728	0.3729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4570	0.4629	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3320	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7010	0.7280	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1953

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	3.000	-0.406	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.667	-0.280	-0.667
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.878	-0.122
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.576	0.170
predicted_H	0.857	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=27.0, weight=0.189, BvP AVG=0.148)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.2222	0.4167	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.2564	0.3830	0.4615	0.2564	0.0513	0.1538	0.1795	0.2564
season	0.20	32	-	128.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	12.000	13.000	36.000	0.1953	0.2797	0.3203	0.1953	0.0312	0.1094	0.1016	0.2812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7880
predicted_AVG	0.2315
predicted_BB	0.7010
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.3650
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.4202
predicted_SO	0.9960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1850	0.1596	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.7880	3.8777	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2315	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.7010	0.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8770	0.8571	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1750	0.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4680	0.4286	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3970	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4202	0.4201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.9960	1.0506	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 24

All-history rows before 20260512: 24

System season_avg: 0.1620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1625

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.333	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	2.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.542	1.000	0.458	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.600	0.236	-0.100
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	0.000	0.708	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.275	0.333	1.058	1.000
predicted_SO	0.708	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.455	0.122
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.000
predicted_BB	0.460	0.085
predicted_H	0.568	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.706	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.5000	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	0.1471	0.2564	0.3235	0.1471	0.0588	0.1177	0.1471	0.2059
season	0.20	24	-	80.000	13.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	9.000	17.000	0.1625	0.2637	0.2750	0.1625	0.0250	0.0875	0.1125	0.2125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5570
predicted_AVG	0.1801
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_H	0.6410
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.2906
predicted_R	0.5190
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.3936
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0620	0.0906	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.5570	3.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1801	0.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.5310	0.4601	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6410	0.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2300	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2906	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5190	0.4726	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.5340	0.4731	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3936	0.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.7050	0.7064	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.162

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	2.000	-0.188	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.281	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.281	5.000	-0.281	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.400	0.076	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	2.000	0.156	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.500	0.115	0.000
predicted_R	0.344	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.344	0.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	3.000	-0.531	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.800	-0.057	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.281	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.688	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	0.119
predicted_3B	0.075	0.044
predicted_AB	3.455	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.706	0.018
predicted_H	0.859	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.363	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.483	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.524	0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5556	0.2778	0.0000	0.2778	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	3.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5000	0.2500	0.0278	0.2778	0.2500	0.0833
season	0.20	32	-	105.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	11.000	22.000	16.000	0.2571	0.3846	0.3905	0.2571	0.0191	0.1619	0.2095	0.1524

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3970
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.5860
predicted_AVG	0.2602
predicted_BB	0.7190
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3831
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.8250
predicted_SLG	0.4828
predicted_SO	0.5430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.3970	0.3073	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1090	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2810	3.5860	3.4551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6880	0.7190	0.7057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9330	0.8587	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3831	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.3780	0.3634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.8250	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4828	0.4829	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5430	0.5245	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	6.000	0.189	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.167	-0.291	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	1.000	-1.108	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.167	-0.370	-0.167
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	1.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.167	-0.433	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.838	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	1.000	3.162	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.963	0.152
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.052
predicted_H	0.867	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2609	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2143	0.2826	0.2381	0.2143	0.0000	0.1429	0.0952	0.2381
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	41.000	5.000	5.000	26.000	22.000	18.000	31.000	0.2908	0.3704	0.4326	0.2908	0.0355	0.1844	0.1277	0.2199

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0720
predicted_AVG	0.2229
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2928
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.2773
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0830	0.1046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	4.0720	3.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.3970	0.4340	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9070	0.8666	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2928	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5080	0.5442	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5250	0.5021	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2773	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	0.8750	0.8596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	4
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.912	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.912	5.000	-0.912	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.070	0.333
predicted_BB	0.618	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.618	1.000	1.382	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.029	0.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.167	0.235	0.433
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.661	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.000	0.762	1.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.912	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.618	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.661	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.004
predicted_3B	0.075	0.046
predicted_AB	3.928	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.616	-0.002
predicted_H	1.188	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.303	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.076
predicted_RBI	0.880	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.661	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.912

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.7619	0.3333	0.0952	0.2857	0.1429	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	0.3243	0.4348	0.7297	0.3243	0.0811	0.2162	0.2162	0.1892
season	0.20	34	-	133.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	27.000	24.000	21.000	34.000	0.2632	0.3654	0.5714	0.2632	0.0752	0.2030	0.1579	0.2556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2710
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.9400
predicted_AVG	0.3045
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_H	1.2000
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.3892
predicted_R	0.8370
predicted_RBI	0.8880
predicted_SLG	0.6613
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2650	0.2710	0.2685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1090	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9120	3.9400	3.9283	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3045	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6180	0.6140	0.6157	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.2000	1.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.3050	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3892	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.8370	0.7822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	0.8880	0.8805	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6610	0.6613	0.6612	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8850	0.9331	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2561

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.410	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.316	5.000	-2.316	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.200	0.244	0.300
predicted_BB	0.368	3.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	1.000	2.632	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	1.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.333	0.478	0.467
predicted_R	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.816	2.000	0.184	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.763	1.000	-0.763	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.476	0.800	0.024	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.579	2.000	-1.579	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.816	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.300	-0.110
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	0.051
predicted_H	1.055	-0.025
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.174	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.906	0.090
predicted_RBI	0.372	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.459	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	3.000	3.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.410

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2381	0.3600	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	15.000	0.2500	0.3265	0.3409	0.2500	0.0227	0.0682	0.0909	0.3409
season	0.20	38	-	164.000	42.000	6.000	10.000	29.000	31.000	14.000	60.000	0.2561	0.3222	0.4756	0.2561	0.0610	0.1768	0.0854	0.3659

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2230
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	1.0370
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.3357
predicted_R	0.9680
predicted_RBI	0.3670
predicted_SLG	0.3872
predicted_SO	1.3750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0840	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4100	4.2230	4.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2456	0.2458	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4550	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0370	1.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1700	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3357	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8160	0.9680	0.9056	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3670	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5790	1.3750	1.4587	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	3
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Paul Skenes (694973) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.375	0.000	-1.375	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.875	2.000	-1.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.162	8.000	0.038	-2.800
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	5.750	7.000	2.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	34.000	3.000	1.2000	0.5000	0.1333	0.4667	0.0333	1.1333	0.1000
last_10	0.35	8	42.000	11.000	23.000	7.000	46.000	4.000	2.3571	0.7143	0.2619	0.5476	0.1667	1.0952	0.0952
season	0.20	8	42.000	11.000	23.000	7.000	46.000	4.000	2.3571	0.7143	0.2619	0.5476	0.1667	1.0952	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.1090
predicted_ER	1.6450
predicted_ERA	2.5780
predicted_H	3.8150
predicted_HR	0.6310
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.0760
predicted_WHIP	0.8577

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.1090	0.5406	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.6450	0.8019	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5780	2.5780	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.8150	2.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6310	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	6.0760	7.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8577	0.8577	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	8
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.36
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	694973
playerID	694973
playerName	Paul Skenes
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.300	0.000	1.700	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.970	1.100	0.130	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.300	1.000	-1.300	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	1.0312	0.0000
season	0.20	20	20.100	3.000	6.000	7.000	26.000	1.000	1.3279	0.6393	0.1475	0.2951	0.3443	1.2787	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_ER	0.3550
predicted_ERA	2.7015
predicted_H	0.7160
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2060
predicted_WHIP	0.9111

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3630	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3550	0.7314	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7015	2.7015	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7160	1.4653	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2060	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9111	0.9111	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.33
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.778	2.000	1.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	0.200	0.089	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	6.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	12.4615	2.7692	1.3846	2.0769	0.6923	0.0000	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	6.000	12.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.7857	1.8214	0.6429	1.2857	0.5357	0.4286	0.2143
season	0.20	18	17.100	7.000	14.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.5769	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4720
predicted_ER	0.6550
predicted_ERA	5.8934
predicted_H	1.1870
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6750
predicted_WHIP	1.6589

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4720	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6550	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8934	5.8934	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1870	1.6749	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6750	1.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6589	1.6589	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	2.000	-0.474	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.947	3.000	0.053	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	0.100	0.211	0.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	2.316	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	2.200	7.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	23.6250	3.0000	2.6250	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	7.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	7.2692	1.3846	0.8077	0.9231	0.4615	0.5769
season	0.20	19	17.100	9.000	18.000	9.000	13.000	4.6731	1.5577	0.5192	1.0385	0.5192	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.8590
predicted_ERA	8.2396
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7960
predicted_WHIP	1.6577

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4430	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8590	0.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.2396	8.2396	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1140	1.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.7960	2.1187	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6577	1.6577	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Yohan Ramírez (670990) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.824	3.000	-0.824	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.059	1.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.288	2.000	-0.288	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	2.000	0.471	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	7.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	0.000	9.9474	1.8947	1.1053	1.1053	0.7895	1.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	9.000	13.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	5.6512	1.4651	0.6279	0.9070	0.5581	1.0465	0.0698
season	0.20	17	24.000	11.000	18.000	14.000	26.000	1.000	4.1250	1.3333	0.4583	0.7500	0.5833	1.0833	0.0417

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_ER	0.7360
predicted_ERA	5.7004
predicted_H	1.1070
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.4729

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6060	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7360	0.8855	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7004	5.7004	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1070	1.0464	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0412	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1830	1.6456	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4729	1.4729	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	34
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	670990
playerID	670990
playerName	Yohan Ramírez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.819	1.200	-0.619	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.438	1.000	0.562	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.1875	0.5625	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	0.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7742	0.0000	0.4839	0.2903	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	12.000	8.000	23.000	1.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7660	0.5106	1.4681	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_ER	0.2480
predicted_ERA	2.8047
predicted_H	0.5840
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7490
predicted_WHIP	1.1455

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3260	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2480	0.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8047	2.8047	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5840	0.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7490	1.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1455	1.1455	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

20260512_DET@NYM

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.54675, "home_win_probability": 0.54675, "away_win_probability": 0.45325000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "confidence": 0.54675, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 2 - 4 NYM", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	DET 2 - 4 NYM	NYM	0.547	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	DET 2 - 4 NYM	NYM	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away DET	4-6	0.400	3.80	4	-2	1W	average	average
Home NYM	5-5	0.500	3.70	3.40	3	2L	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target DET	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target NYM	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized DET	35	10	2	0	1	3	10
Player finalized NYM	34	9	3	0	2	1	9
Player model fractional DET	32.41	7.37	3.61	0.53	3.02	3.65	7.77
Player model fractional NYM	32.02	6.95	3.80	0.89	3.40	3.26	7.41
Simulation box DET	33	6	2	1	2	3	6
Simulation box NYM	31	7	4	2	4	0	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away DET	Starter	Jack Flaherty	3.10	4	5	7	0	5.16	1.52	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Brant Hurter	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.83	1.07	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kyle Finnegan	1.20	0	3	0	0	2.53	1.36	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Kenley Jansen	1	0	0	0	0	3.99	1.33	True
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Tyler Holton	1	1	2	1	0	4.44	1.48	-
Away DET	Middle Reliever	Burch Smith	0.10	0	1	0	0	4.10	1.35	True
Home NYM	Starter	Freddy Peralta	3.10	2	4	3	3	3.16	1.26	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Brooks Raley	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.97	1.13	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Devin Williams	1.10	0	0	1	0	3.81	1.16	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Craig Kimbrel	1	0	1	1	0	4.95	1.44	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Huascar Brazobán	1	0	1	1	0	4.23	1.27	True
Home NYM	Middle Reliever	Luke Weaver	0.20	0	0	0	0	4.19	1.31	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: DET

Gage Workman (669398) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 0

All-history rows before 20260512: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.009	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.535	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.383	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.805	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.437	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.859	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.009	-
predicted_AB	3.535	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.383	-
predicted_H	0.805	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.437	-
predicted_RBI	0.406	-
predicted_SLG	0.359	-
predicted_SO	0.859	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.007
predicted_3B	0.010	0.001
predicted_AB	3.595	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.004
predicted_BB	0.360	-0.023
predicted_H	0.833	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.001
predicted_R	0.449	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.008
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.029

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1810	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0090	0.0140	0.0101	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5350	3.7990	3.5951	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2443	0.2317	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3830	0.2840	0.3605	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8050	0.9280	0.8330	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0990	0.1210	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3057	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4370	0.4900	0.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4060	0.4730	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3590	0.3948	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8590	0.8540	0.8579	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

System season_avg: 0.1470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1471

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	5.000	0.421	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.147	0.200	0.353	0.300
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.526	1.000	1.474	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.194	0.200	0.306	0.300
predicted_R	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.263	1.000	0.737	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.176	0.200	0.324	0.300
predicted_SO	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.263	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.474	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.040
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.686	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	-0.023
predicted_H	0.788	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.339	0.076
predicted_RBI	0.451	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.556	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3333	0.2778	0.1389	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.20	19	-	68.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.1471	0.1944	0.1765	0.1471	0.0735	0.0588	0.1323

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2248
predicted_BB	0.1670
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2589
predicted_R	0.4070
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3028
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1810	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.7830	3.6863	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2248	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.1670	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8500	0.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2589	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2630	0.4070	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4880	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3028	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4740	0.6310	0.5565	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.147

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.1730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1731

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.173	0.000	-0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.250	-0.259	-0.250
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.176	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.283	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.419	0.044
predicted_H	0.523	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.191	0.066
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	0.1212	0.2368	0.1818	0.1212	0.0000	0.0000	0.1515	0.2424
season	0.20	16	-	52.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	0.1731	0.2586	0.2692	0.1731	0.0192	0.0961	0.1154	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3150
predicted_AVG	0.1764
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_H	0.5850
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2801
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.1830
predicted_SLG	0.2756
predicted_SO	0.8300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1870	0.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3150	3.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1760	0.1764	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.4620	0.4190	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5850	0.5232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0440	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2801	0.2801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.2560	0.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1830	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2756	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.8300	0.8211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.173

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	1.000	-0.226	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	4.000	0.161	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.250	-0.235	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.258	1.000	-0.258	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	1.000	-0.903	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.400	-0.305	-0.400
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	-0.806	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.500	-0.445	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.774	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	2.000	1.226	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.258	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.878	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	-0.018
predicted_H	0.669	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	0.890	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.2051	0.2439	0.3590	0.2051	0.0256	0.1538	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	31	-	119.000	28.000	7.000	6.000	25.000	13.000	8.000	24.000	0.2353	0.3053	0.4454	0.2353	0.0504	0.2101	0.0672	0.2017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9080
predicted_AVG	0.1788
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.6990
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_OBP	0.2284
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.3032
predicted_SO	0.9780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.2290	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.9080	3.8784	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1788	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2580	0.2260	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6990	0.6694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0840	0.0823	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2284	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.2920	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4670	0.4469	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3032	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.9780	0.8905	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2945

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	4.000	-0.842	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.250	-0.295	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	1.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	1.000	-1.132	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.400	-0.148	-0.150
predicted_R	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.438	0.250	-0.438	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.127
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.767	-0.203
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.642	0.037
predicted_H	0.710	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.000
predicted_R	0.552	-0.132
predicted_RBI	0.264	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.533	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.1176	0.3182	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	5.000	0.1892	0.3333	0.1892	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.1892	0.1351
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	43.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	26.000	23.000	21.000	0.2945	0.3977	0.4384	0.2945	0.0137	0.1096	0.1575	0.1438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.1879
predicted_BB	0.6680
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3344
predicted_R	0.4590
predicted_RBI	0.2520
predicted_SLG	0.2349
predicted_SO	0.5190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.0720	0.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0100	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	3.6240	3.7669	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1879	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.6680	0.6420	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.6810	0.7095	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0277	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3344	0.3342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.4590	0.5519	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2520	0.2636	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5530	0.5190	0.5330	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B-SS
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2137

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.447	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.447	4.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.194	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.250	-0.214	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	1.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.400	-0.081	-0.150
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	-0.412	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.289	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.289	3.000	-0.289	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.447	-
predicted_AVG	0.194	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	1.289	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.557	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.557	-0.048
predicted_H	0.640	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.069	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	1.432	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	17.000	0.1892	0.2857	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.1351	0.4595
season	0.20	38	-	131.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	14.000	23.000	49.000	0.2137	0.3312	0.4122	0.2137	0.0458	0.1145	0.1756	0.3740

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.1938
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_H	0.7050
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.2966
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.3330
predicted_SO	1.5350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2750	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4470	3.6360	3.5568	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1940	0.1938	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.5230	0.5573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7050	0.6401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0760	0.0693	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2966	0.2968	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3040	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3060	0.2784	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2890	1.5350	1.4320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3194

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.412	0.750	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.667	0.431	0.083
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.410	3.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.150	2.000	1.850	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.503	0.750	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.420	0.800	0.330	-0.050
predicted_R	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.597	1.500	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.493	1.000	1.007	0.500
predicted_SO	1.175	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.175	1.000	-1.175	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.412	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	1.410	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.503	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.597	-
predicted_SO	1.175	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.455	0.130
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.555	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.412	0.000
predicted_BB	0.651	0.026
predicted_H	1.435	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.503	-0.000
predicted_R	0.571	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.597	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.212	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.399 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.5294	0.6190	0.7647	0.5294	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	14.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	15.000	0.4000	0.5000	0.5429	0.4000	0.0000	0.0571	0.2000	0.4286
season	0.20	40	-	144.000	46.000	13.000	4.000	20.000	26.000	25.000	47.000	0.3194	0.4201	0.4931	0.3194	0.0278	0.1389	0.1736	0.3264

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.4123
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_H	1.4530
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.5026
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.2880
predicted_SLG	0.5969
predicted_SO	1.2390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3250	0.5460	0.4546	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5240	3.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4120	0.4123	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.6700	0.6514	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4100	1.4530	1.4352	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5030	0.5026	0.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5150	0.5709	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2880	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5970	0.5969	0.5969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1750	1.2390	1.2125	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Colt Keith (690993) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2842

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.519	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	3.000	0.481	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	2.000	0.148	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.519	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.102
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.407	-0.112
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	0.075
predicted_H	0.879	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.118	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0938	0.2500
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	27.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	5.000	23.000	0.2842	0.3267	0.3579	0.2842	0.0421	0.0526	0.2421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3170
predicted_AVG	0.2598
predicted_BB	0.3210
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3452
predicted_R	0.5100
predicted_RBI	0.1160
predicted_SLG	0.3056
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.0740	0.1566	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5190	3.3170	3.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2598	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.3210	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8620	0.8790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3452	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.5100	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1160	0.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3056	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	0.8250	0.8371	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	690993
playerID	690993
playerName	Colt Keith
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 24

All-history rows before 20260512: 24

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	4.000	0.458	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.026	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.792	1.000	0.208	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.400	-0.037	-0.150
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	2.000	-0.583	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.500	-0.115	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.357	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.676	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.002
predicted_H	0.890	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.339	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.597	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.625	-0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4103	0.2308	0.0256	0.2051	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	24	-	85.000	19.000	9.000	1.000	14.000	8.000	8.000	15.000	0.2235	0.2872	0.3647	0.2235	0.0118	0.1647	0.0941	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.2440
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.3070
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.4392
predicted_SO	0.6240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.3430	0.3575	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.7870	3.6762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2440	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3360	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9240	0.8905	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1300	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3070	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3430	0.3385	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6190	0.5968	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4392	0.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6240	0.6245	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Jack Flaherty (656427) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	3.250	1.000	-3.250	-1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	2.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_H	7.000	7.000	7.000	Pitching_H	3.750	3.000	3.250	4.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.075	5.000	-0.975	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	5.250	10.000	-0.250	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	20.000	13.000	18.000	15.000	28.000	4.000	5.8500	1.6500	0.6500	0.9000	0.7500	1.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	8	34.000	21.000	30.000	26.000	42.000	5.000	5.5588	1.6471	0.6177	0.8823	0.7647	1.2353	0.1471
season	0.20	8	34.000	21.000	30.000	26.000	42.000	5.000	5.5588	1.6471	0.6177	0.8823	0.7647	1.2353	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3270
predicted_ER	2.1820
predicted_ERA	5.1560
predicted_H	3.4730
predicted_HR	0.6170
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	4.5620
predicted_WHIP	1.5229

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.3270	1.1344	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.1820	3.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1560	5.1560	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	3.4730	5.2806	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6170	1.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	3.2000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.5620	4.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5229	1.5229	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	0
SO	5
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	67

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.56
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656427
playerID	656427
playerName	Jack Flaherty
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.100	0.217	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	1.1250	0.8750	0.1250	0.5000	0.3750	0.8750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	2.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.000	1.1739	0.6522	0.1304	0.4565	0.1956	0.7174	0.0000
season	0.20	17	21.200	4.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	1.6615	0.8308	0.1846	0.5538	0.2769	0.6923	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5560
predicted_ER	0.5150
predicted_ERA	2.8311
predicted_H	1.2010
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4350
predicted_WHIP	1.0744

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5560	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5150	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8311	2.8311	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2010	0.5081	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1200	0.0508	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4350	0.6071	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0744	1.0744	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.789	2.000	-0.789	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.932	1.200	0.268	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	2.316	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5882	0.0000	0.5294	1.0588	0.5294	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	0.7941	1.2353	0.0882	0.6177	0.6177	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	18	19.100	1.000	11.000	14.000	13.000	1.000	0.4655	1.2931	0.0517	0.5690	0.7241	0.6724	0.0517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7980
predicted_ER	0.3870
predicted_ERA	2.5324
predicted_H	1.0720
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1530
predicted_WHIP	1.3578

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7980	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3870	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5324	2.5324	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0720	0.4407	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1250	0.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1530	2.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3578	1.3578	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	0.8571	0.6429	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.0800	0.2400
season	0.20	11	9.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.7500	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.4300
predicted_ERA	3.9920
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9690
predicted_WHIP	1.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4110	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4300	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9920	3.9920	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8810	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1490	0.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9690	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3350	1.3350	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Tyler Holton (663947) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.235	1.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.841	1.200	0.159	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	8.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.3750	1.5000	0.3750	1.5000	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	17.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	6.9677	2.0323	0.7742	1.6452	0.3871	0.6774	0.1935
season	0.20	17	17.100	8.000	21.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6731	0.4615	1.2115	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_ER	0.4930
predicted_ERA	4.4363
predicted_H	1.1660
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8580
predicted_WHIP	1.4842

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3190	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4930	0.7973	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4363	4.4363	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1660	1.0664	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8580	1.5433	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4842	1.4842	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663947
playerID	663947
playerName	Tyler Holton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.400	0.100	-1.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	0.000	-1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	4.2632	1.4211	0.4737	1.2632	0.1579	1.2632	0.1579
last_10	0.35	8	11.200	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	1.0286	0.3429	1.3714	0.0857
season	0.20	8	11.200	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	1.0286	0.3429	1.3714	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_ER	0.2960
predicted_ERA	4.0970
predicted_H	0.6620
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6930
predicted_WHIP	1.3477

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2140	0.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2960	0.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0970	4.0970	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6620	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6930	0.8891	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3477	1.3477	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: NYM

AJ Smith-Shawver (700363) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 0

All-history rows before 20260512: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.151	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.015	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.572	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.369	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.106	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.479	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.417	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.932	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	-
predicted_3B	0.015	-
predicted_AB	3.572	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.369	-
predicted_H	0.821	-
predicted_HR	0.106	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.479	-
predicted_RBI	0.417	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.932	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.007
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.000
predicted_AB	3.624	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.003
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.019
predicted_H	0.845	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.001
predicted_R	0.481	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.006
predicted_SO	0.914	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1510	0.1810	0.1578	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0150	0.0140	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5720	3.7990	3.6236	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2443	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3690	0.2840	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8210	0.9280	0.8453	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1060	0.1210	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3057	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4790	0.4900	0.4815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4170	0.4730	0.4297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3948	0.3756	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9320	0.8540	0.9143	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2233

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.552	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.552	4.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.250	-0.223	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_R	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.552	0.000	-0.552	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.250	-0.417	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.897	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.552	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.709	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	0.007
predicted_H	0.720	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.195	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.5263	0.2105	0.0790	0.2368	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.20	29	-	103.000	23.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	11.000	7.000	26.000	0.2233	0.2703	0.4175	0.2233	0.0485	0.1553	0.0680	0.2524

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2190
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8320
predicted_AVG	0.1983
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.2490
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.4187
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.2190	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5520	3.8320	3.7088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1983	0.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.2530	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7600	0.7204	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2060	0.1946	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2490	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.3760	0.3773	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5810	0.5498	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4187	0.4188	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.8570	0.8746	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3023

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	2.867	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.867	3.000	1.133	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.198	0.500
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	1.133	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.112	0.250
predicted_R	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.692	1.250
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	2.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.084	0.017
predicted_AB	3.013	0.146
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.002
predicted_H	0.736	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.255	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	1.003	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.2143	0.3529	0.3571	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2963	0.3871	0.5185	0.2963	0.0370	0.1482	0.1111	0.2963
season	0.20	15	-	43.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.3023	0.3878	0.5581	0.3023	0.0465	0.1395	0.1163	0.3721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.1020
predicted_AB	3.1660
predicted_AVG	0.2544
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	0.8050
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3467
predicted_R	0.2420
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.4314
predicted_SO	0.9360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1100	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.1020	0.0841	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8670	3.1660	3.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2544	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3380	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8050	0.7361	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0820	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3467	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2420	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3060	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4314	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	0.9360	1.0029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2254

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.550	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.550	3.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.441	0.667
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.383	0.417
predicted_R	0.325	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.325	0.000	0.675	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.357	0.667
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	1.000	0.225	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.550	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.325	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.549	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	0.080
predicted_H	0.933	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.216
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.20	40	-	142.000	32.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	13.000	11.000	31.000	0.2254	0.2839	0.3099	0.2253	0.0141	0.0916	0.0775	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5490
predicted_AVG	0.2756
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3495
predicted_R	0.6960
predicted_RBI	0.3990
predicted_SLG	0.4355
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1600	0.1558	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5500	3.5490	3.5494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2756	0.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.4120	0.3547	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9780	0.9328	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3495	0.3493	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3250	0.6960	0.5407	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3990	0.3785	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4355	0.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.6980	0.7302	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.5380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.050	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.050	3.000	-0.050	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	-0.900	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.250	-0.269	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.050	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.275	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.901	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.100
predicted_H	0.659	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.121
predicted_RBI	0.279	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.504	-0.246

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.538)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.050

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.1111	0.2381	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.1795	0.2558	0.1795	0.1795	0.0000	0.0513	0.1026	0.0769
season	0.20	40	-	162.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	11.000	30.000	0.2222	0.2686	0.2901	0.2222	0.0123	0.0988	0.0679	0.1852

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7960
predicted_AVG	0.1700
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	0.6450
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2585
predicted_R	0.1940
predicted_RBI	0.2720
predicted_SLG	0.2036
predicted_SO	0.3320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0460	0.0785	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0500	3.7960	3.9006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2750	0.4450	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6450	0.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2585	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1940	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2720	0.2794	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2036	0.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.3320	0.5041	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 24

All-history rows before 20260512: 24

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2556

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	0.000	-0.958	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.250	-0.358	-0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.456	0.000	-0.456	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.178	-
predicted_BB	0.625	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.079	0.037
predicted_AB	3.704	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.536	-0.089
predicted_H	0.656	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.395	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.657	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.3889	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2791	0.3333	0.1667	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
season	0.20	24	-	90.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	15.000	16.000	0.2556	0.3585	0.4556	0.2556	0.0444	0.1111	0.1667	0.1778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.1782
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2663
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.3854
predicted_SO	0.6490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0920	0.1252	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.1090	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6670	3.7038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1780	0.1782	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6250	0.4650	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6530	0.6561	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2663	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3780	0.3953	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3630	0.3617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3854	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6490	0.6570	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.467	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	3.000	-1.467	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	-0.221	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	1.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.333	0.053	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.315	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.667	-0.327	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.315	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.037
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.475	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.210	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	0.104
predicted_H	0.695	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.315	0.000
predicted_SO	0.970	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	0.1613	0.3333	0.2258	0.1613	0.0000	0.0323	0.2258	0.2258
season	0.20	30	-	104.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	8.000	32.000	0.2212	0.2807	0.3269	0.2212	0.0096	0.1154	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.2098
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_H	0.7300
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3192
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.2540
predicted_SLG	0.3153
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2660	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0080	0.0190	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.4820	3.4754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2098	0.2099	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.4520	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7300	0.6950	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3192	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5990	0.5412	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2540	0.2435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3150	0.3153	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	0.8950	0.9703	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2091

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.333	-0.209	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.333	-0.281	-0.333
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.465	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.333	-0.336	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.812	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	1.188	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.540	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.465	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.077
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.525	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	0.015
predicted_H	0.917	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.578	0.109
predicted_RBI	0.639	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.465	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4286	0.2571	0.0286	0.2000	0.1143	0.2286
season	0.20	32	-	110.000	23.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	15.000	11.000	26.000	0.2091	0.2810	0.3364	0.2091	0.0273	0.1000	0.1000	0.2364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.2602
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3321
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	0.6380
predicted_SLG	0.4647
predicted_SO	0.8130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2920	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5400	3.5130	3.5247	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2602	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3700	0.3587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9140	0.9166	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1400	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3321	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.6620	0.5782	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6380	0.6389	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4650	0.4647	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.8130	0.8126	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.419	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.419	3.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.440	0.667
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	0.000	1.226	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.358	0.667
predicted_R	0.323	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.323	0.000	0.677	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	0.299	0.667
predicted_SO	0.871	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	1.000	0.129	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.419	-
predicted_AVG	0.242	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.323	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	0.032
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.518	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.020
predicted_H	0.784	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.238	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.948	0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.1842	0.2250	0.2105	0.1842	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
season	0.20	31	-	106.000	24.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	27.000	0.2264	0.3083	0.3679	0.2264	0.0377	0.0849	0.1038	0.2547

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5950
predicted_AVG	0.2425
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3061
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.2670
predicted_SLG	0.3238
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1530	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4190	3.5950	3.5185	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2420	0.2425	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3190	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8720	0.7842	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3061	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3230	0.3790	0.3547	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2670	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	1.0070	0.9479	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Freddy Peralta (642547) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	2.250	2.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.875	0.000	0.125	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.250	4.000	-1.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.212	5.000	-2.112	-1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.375	1.000	-1.375	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.100	7.000	22.000	13.000	24.000	2.000	2.2235	1.2353	0.2471	0.7765	0.4588	0.8471	0.0706
last_10	0.35	8	43.100	15.000	34.000	18.000	43.000	4.000	3.1154	1.2000	0.3462	0.7846	0.4154	0.9923	0.0923
season	0.20	8	43.100	15.000	34.000	18.000	43.000	4.000	3.1154	1.2000	0.3462	0.7846	0.4154	0.9923	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9780
predicted_ER	1.6490
predicted_ERA	3.1559
predicted_H	3.9560
predicted_HR	0.4560
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.3190
predicted_WHIP	1.2614

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9780	2.5018	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.6490	1.8289	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1559	3.1559	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.9560	3.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4560	0.7348	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.2000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.3190	4.1555	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2614	1.2614	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	642547
playerID	642547
playerName	Freddy Peralta
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.394	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	-1.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.6429	0.4286	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	16	15.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	1.2000	0.8667	0.1333	0.5333	0.3333	1.2000	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4980
predicted_ER	0.4680
predicted_ERA	2.9688
predicted_H	1.1000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4890
predicted_WHIP	1.1269

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4980	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4680	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9688	2.9688	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1000	0.4239	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4890	0.5738	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1269	1.1269	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.333	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	11.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	1.2692	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	21.000	1.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	1.1053	0.2368	1.6579	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.5160
predicted_ERA	3.8050
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4150
predicted_WHIP	1.1631

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3450	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5160	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8050	3.8050	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0750	1.0277	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1270	0.0469	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4150	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1631	1.1631	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Craig Kimbrel (518886) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 10

All-history rows before 20260512: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.840	1.000	0.160	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	7.2000	1.8000	0.8000	1.0000	0.8000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.0714	0.6429	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.0714	0.6429	1.2857	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_ER	0.5500
predicted_ERA	4.9543
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0940
predicted_WHIP	1.4405

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4760	0.1627	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5500	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9543	4.9543	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9650	0.9880	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0468	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0940	1.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4405	1.4405	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	518886
playerID	518886
playerName	Craig Kimbrel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	3.000	-0.471	-3.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.1875	0.9375	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	1.000	4.3548	1.3548	0.4839	0.5806	0.7742	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	17	18.200	5.000	12.000	8.000	14.000	1.000	2.4107	1.0714	0.2679	0.6429	0.4286	0.7500	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5500
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	4.2324
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8370
predicted_WHIP	1.2672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5500	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4700	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2324	4.2324	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7170	0.8847	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8370	0.9336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2672	1.2672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	2.000	-0.375	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.919	1.000	-0.719	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.9375	0.3750	1.6875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.9375	0.3750	1.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	16	16.100	8.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.4082	1.1633	0.4898	0.7959	0.3674	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	4.1853
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8970
predicted_WHIP	1.3059

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3020	0.1189	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1853	4.1853	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7400	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8970	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3059	1.3059	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

20260512_KC@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "KC 3 - 4 CHW", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "KC 3 - 4 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "KC 3 - 5 CHW", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	KC 3 - 4 CHW	CHW	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	KC 3 - 5 CHW	CHW	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away KC	7-3	0.700	4.30	3.50	8	1L	average	average
Home CHW	6-4	0.600	4.50	3.40	11	2W	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-12	CHW @ KC	6 - 5	CHW	1	close
2026-04-11	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close
2026-04-10	CHW @ KC	0 - 2	KC	2	close
2026-04-09	CHW @ KC	2 - 0	CHW	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target KC	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target CHW	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized KC	32	8	3	0	4	0	9
Player finalized CHW	33	9	5	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional KC	32.13	7.89	4.09	1.03	3.96	2.96	7.91
Player model fractional CHW	31.44	7.79	4.63	1.27	4.12	3.83	8.15
Simulation box KC	35	8	3	0	3	1	9
Simulation box CHW	33	7	5	1	5	3	8

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away KC	Starter	Stephen Kolek	4.20	2	5	2	2	4.24	1.21	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Lucas Erceg	1.10	0	1	1	0	3.32	1.32	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Matt Strahm	1	0	1	1	0	3.57	1.28	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Nick Mears	1	0	0	1	0	4.12	1.36	True
Away KC	Middle Reliever	Daniel Lynch IV	0.20	3	1	2	1	4.06	1.17	True
Home CHW	Starter	Erick Fedde	5.10	0	6	2	0	3.90	1.20	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Bryan Hudson	1.10	1	0	1	0	2.96	1.42	-
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Sean Newcomb	1.10	1	2	1	0	4.49	1.35	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Seranthony Domínguez	1.10	2	1	5	0	4.66	1.41	True
Home CHW	Middle Reliever	Grant Taylor	1	0	0	0	1	3.39	1.25	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: KC

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	2.000	0.588	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.069	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	-0.155	0.250
predicted_SO	1.176	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.176	0.000	-1.176	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	1.176	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.347	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	0.020
predicted_H	0.504	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	1.320	0.144

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.1333	0.2632	0.2000	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000	0.5333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	16.000	0.0909	0.2051	0.1212	0.0909	0.0000	0.0606	0.1515	0.4849
season	0.20	34	-	116.000	26.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	16.000	16.000	40.000	0.2241	0.3185	0.4052	0.2241	0.0517	0.1552	0.1379	0.3448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2990
predicted_AVG	0.1562
predicted_BB	0.5050
predicted_H	0.5150
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2633
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.2970
predicted_SLG	0.2464
predicted_SO	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.1520	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.2990	3.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1562	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.5050	0.4905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5150	0.5043	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2633	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.4000	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2970	0.2897	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2464	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1760	1.4270	1.3199	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.387	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.387	4.000	0.613	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	0.000	0.194	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.102	0.250
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.112	0.250
predicted_SO	1.161	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	1.000	-0.161	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.387	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.049
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.421	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.064
predicted_H	0.903	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.422	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.055	-0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.3030	0.3846	0.4848	0.3030	0.0303	0.1515	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.20	31	-	105.000	25.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	14.000	17.000	36.000	0.2381	0.3520	0.3619	0.2381	0.0286	0.1238	0.1619	0.3429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4470
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.4350
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.3582
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4637
predicted_SO	0.9740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.2150	0.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3870	3.4470	3.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.4350	0.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9580	0.9027	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3582	0.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.4690	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4460	0.4218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4637	0.4638	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	0.9740	1.0547	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2737

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.065	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.065	2.000	0.935	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	-0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.839	0.000	-0.839	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.000	-0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	-0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	0.742	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	1.000	1.258	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.278	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.056	-0.009
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.013
predicted_H	0.598	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.278	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	0.662	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.1538	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2333	0.3030	0.2667	0.2333	0.0000	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000
season	0.20	31	-	95.000	26.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	12.000	6.000	23.000	0.2737	0.3365	0.4105	0.2737	0.0316	0.1053	0.0632	0.2421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0490
predicted_AVG	0.2143
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2778
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.2783
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0800	0.1018	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0650	3.0490	3.0561	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2143	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2180	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6530	0.5983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2778	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.3120	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3540	0.3255	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2780	0.2783	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.5980	0.6620	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2014

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	4.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.201	0.500	0.049	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.763	2.000	0.237	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.500	-0.033	-0.250
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.500	-0.111	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.868	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.868	0.000	-0.868	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	0.868	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.024
predicted_AB	3.908	0.119
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	-0.127
predicted_H	0.973	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.392	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.2857	0.3023	0.4524	0.2857	0.0476	0.1191	0.0238	0.2143
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	16.000	17.000	33.000	0.2014	0.2831	0.3611	0.2014	0.0347	0.1319	0.1181	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9930
predicted_AVG	0.2515
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	1.0040
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2932
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.4081
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0760	0.0880	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0120	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.9930	3.9084	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.2300	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0040	0.9733	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1750	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2932	0.2931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.3710	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4580	0.4464	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4081	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8680	0.7740	0.8130	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.201

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	1.000	-0.212	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.011	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	-0.065	0.000
predicted_R	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.393	0.500	-0.143	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.152	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.152	0.000	0.848	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.152	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.032
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.676	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.076
predicted_H	0.776	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.528	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.222	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	1.066	-0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.20	33	-	117.000	28.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	16.000	11.000	38.000	0.2393	0.3154	0.3932	0.2393	0.0256	0.0513	0.0940	0.3248

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.2210
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.2619
predicted_R	0.5610
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.3740
predicted_SO	1.0020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.2680	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0080	0.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.7750	3.6763	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2210	0.2210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2000	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8340	0.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0980	0.0903	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2619	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.5610	0.5284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2390	0.2223	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3740	0.3740	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1520	1.0020	1.0664	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2867

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.947	3.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	1.000	-0.287	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	1.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	3.000	-1.132	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	1.000	-0.421	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.440	1.333	-0.440	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.370	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	1.510	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	0.069
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.882	-0.188
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	0.043
predicted_H	1.438	-0.072
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.439	-0.000
predicted_R	0.472	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.543	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.353 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5714	0.6667	0.5000	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3864	0.4211	0.3158	0.0000	0.1316	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	38	-	150.000	43.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	20.000	16.000	26.000	0.2867	0.3512	0.4400	0.2867	0.0200	0.1067	0.1067	0.1733

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4340
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7490
predicted_AVG	0.3704
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_H	1.3880
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.4388
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.5240
predicted_SLG	0.5141
predicted_SO	0.4350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3160	0.4340	0.3851	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	3.7490	3.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3700	0.3704	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4950	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5100	1.3880	1.4385	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4388	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.4340	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5240	0.5430	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5141	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.4350	0.5381	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	3.000	0.103	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.309	0.500
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.744	0.000	1.256	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.000	0.267	0.500
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.000	0.178	0.500
predicted_SO	0.949	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.949	2.000	-0.949	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.142	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	0.949	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.726	-0.171
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.077
predicted_H	0.519	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.076	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.562	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.139	0.190

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.0588	0.1500	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.1765	0.1177	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2439	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	39	-	152.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	6.000	37.000	0.1908	0.2331	0.3224	0.1908	0.0329	0.1118	0.0395	0.2434

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.1418
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.5110
predicted_HBP	0.0760
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2160
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.5570
predicted_SLG	0.2038
predicted_SO	1.2740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1060	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.6050	3.7264	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1420	0.1418	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.2860	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5110	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0760	0.0760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0380	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2160	0.2160	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.2470	0.2936	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5570	0.5624	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2038	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9490	1.2740	1.1389	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.951	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	-0.951	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.352	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.500	0.031	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.463	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.463	0.000	0.537	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.195	2.000	-0.195	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	0.128	0.000
predicted_R	0.463	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.463	1.000	-0.463	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.463	0.000	-0.463	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.626	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.500	-0.142	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.756	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.756	0.000	-0.756	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.951	-
predicted_AVG	0.352	-
predicted_BB	0.463	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.463	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.626	-
predicted_SO	0.756	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.930	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.352	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	-0.057
predicted_H	1.375	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.282	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.619	0.156
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.626	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.641	-0.115

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.348 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.951

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.7895	0.4210	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	8.000	0.3415	0.3864	0.6098	0.3415	0.0732	0.0976	0.0732	0.1951
season	0.20	41	-	162.000	49.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	19.000	19.000	19.000	31.000	0.3025	0.3716	0.4753	0.3025	0.0309	0.1173	0.1173	0.1914

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.9160
predicted_AVG	0.3519
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_H	1.3780
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.4072
predicted_R	0.7270
predicted_RBI	0.5010
predicted_SLG	0.6259
predicted_SO	0.5620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.2090	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9510	3.9160	3.9303	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3520	0.3519	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4630	0.3660	0.4057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.3780	1.3747	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2840	0.2824	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4072	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4630	0.7270	0.6189	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5010	0.5006	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6260	0.6259	0.6259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7560	0.5620	0.6414	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 23

All-history rows before 20260512: 23

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.043	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.043	3.000	0.957	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.333	0.007	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.130	1.000	-0.130	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.333	-0.007	-0.083
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.435	1.000	-0.435	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	3.000	-0.522	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.579	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.471	1.333	-0.221	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.739	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	0.000	2.261	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.304	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.087	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.579	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.185	0.142
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.099	0.012
predicted_H	0.801	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.213	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.547	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.649	0.089
predicted_SLG	0.579	0.000
predicted_SO	0.677	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.8667	0.3333	0.1333	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	0.2424	0.2571	0.4848	0.2424	0.0606	0.2121	0.0303	0.1818
season	0.20	23	-	70.000	17.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	2.000	17.000	0.2429	0.2568	0.4714	0.2429	0.0429	0.1714	0.0286	0.2429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3120
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	0.9010
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2420
predicted_OBP	0.2955
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.7280
predicted_SLG	0.5792
predicted_SO	0.6210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3040	0.2840	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0430	3.3120	3.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0870	0.1100	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.9010	0.8014	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2420	0.2127	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2955	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.6480	0.5475	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.7280	0.6487	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5790	0.5792	0.5791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.6210	0.6767	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Stephen Kolek (663568) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	3.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.000	6.000	-1.800	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	6.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	1	6.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.1667
season	0.20	1	6.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.6667	0.5000	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5520
predicted_ER	2.3060
predicted_ERA	4.2448
predicted_H	4.3730
predicted_HR	0.6590
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.3090
predicted_WHIP	1.2120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5520	1.8665	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3060	2.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2448	4.2448	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.3730	2.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6590	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.3090	4.7941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2120	1.2120	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663568
playerID	663568
playerName	Stephen Kolek
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.194	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	3.7241	1.6552	0.4138	0.6207	1.0345	1.0345
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	0.6735	0.7347	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6460
predicted_ER	0.4430
predicted_ERA	3.3162
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1630
predicted_WHIP	1.3171

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6460	0.2544	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4430	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3162	3.3162	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9370	0.9752	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1630	1.0642	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3171	1.3171	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.800	2.000	0.200	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	14.200	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.6818	1.2273	0.4091	0.8182	0.4091	1.0227	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	3.5666
predicted_H	0.8900
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9750
predicted_WHIP	1.2785

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3890	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3960	0.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5666	3.5666	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8900	0.9579	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9750	0.9904	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2785	1.2785	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.647	2.000	0.353	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	0.200	0.247	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.9091	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.2727	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.8750	0.3750	0.6250	0.1250
season	0.20	17	14.200	5.000	11.000	7.000	11.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2273	0.3409	0.7500	0.4773	0.7500	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	4.1238
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	1.3573

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3330	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1238	4.1238	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8910	0.9582	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7500	0.2874	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3573	1.3573	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	2.750	2.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.438	2.000	1.562	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.919	0.200	-0.719	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	1.000	-0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	2.7931	0.7241	0.3103	0.5172	0.2069	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	16	16.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	2.2041	0.7347	0.2449	0.4286	0.3061	1.2857	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2830
predicted_ER	0.3600
predicted_ERA	4.0578
predicted_H	0.6520
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9070
predicted_WHIP	1.1712

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2830	0.7176	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3600	1.9603	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0578	4.0578	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6520	1.4691	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1060	0.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9070	0.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1712	1.1712	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	36

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Home Team: CHW

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	2.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.000	-0.050	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	-0.114	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	-0.050	0.250
predicted_SO	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.038
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.097	0.240
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.019
predicted_H	0.812	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.104	0.104
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.304	0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.3333	0.3333	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667
last_10	0.35	7	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500
season	0.20	7	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.3000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4470
predicted_AVG	0.2786
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3457
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.3390
predicted_SLG	0.3654
predicted_SO	0.5390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0940	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.4470	3.0967	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2786	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3320	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9600	0.8116	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0630	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3457	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2560	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3390	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1430	0.5390	0.3039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	3.000	0.342	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.333	-0.230	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	1.000	-0.842	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	-0.365	-0.500
predicted_R	0.737	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.763	0.000	-0.763	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.561	0.333	-0.561	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.526	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.526	1.000	-0.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.658	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.789	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.737	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	1.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.710	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.706	-0.083
predicted_H	0.855	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.321	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.767	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.598	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.533	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.577	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.6316	0.2632	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	18.000	0.1892	0.3333	0.4595	0.1892	0.0811	0.1622	0.2162	0.4865
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	32.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	28.000	30.000	58.000	0.2302	0.3647	0.5612	0.2302	0.1079	0.2086	0.2158	0.4173

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.2327
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3280
predicted_OBP	0.3461
predicted_R	0.7890
predicted_RBI	0.6100
predicted_SLG	0.5329
predicted_SO	1.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0260	0.1370	0.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6580	3.7460	3.7096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2327	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7890	0.6470	0.7057	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8720	0.8546	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3280	0.3206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3461	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7370	0.7890	0.7675	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6100	0.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5329	0.5329	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5260	1.6130	1.5770	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AB	3.510	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_BB	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.134	0.500
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.000	-0.049	0.333
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	2.000	-0.550	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.100	-
predicted_AB	3.510	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.070	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.473	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.058
predicted_H	0.929	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.433	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.3235	0.4250	0.4118	0.3235	0.0000	0.1177	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	20	-	68.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3659	0.3824	0.2500	0.0147	0.1323	0.0882	0.1618

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.2673
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.3500
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3657
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.3496
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0850	0.0919	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1000	0.0440	0.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5100	3.4410	3.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2673	0.2672	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.1910	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9200	0.9293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3500	0.3500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3657	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6020	0.6011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4270	0.4330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3496	0.3498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.7800	0.6735	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2279

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	1.000	-0.135	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.333	0.022	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.250	-0.113	0.000
predicted_R	0.757	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.595	1.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.478	0.667	-0.228	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.730	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.757	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.568	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.014
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.567	-0.109
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.708	-0.022
predicted_H	0.895	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.314	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.383	-0.000
predicted_R	0.787	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.735	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.568	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	-0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4091	0.6875	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.2778	0.4000	0.5556	0.2778	0.0833	0.2222	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	31.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	22.000	28.000	27.000	26.000	0.2279	0.3631	0.4779	0.2279	0.0662	0.1618	0.1985	0.1912

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.2536
predicted_BB	0.6920
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.3090
predicted_OBP	0.3829
predicted_R	0.8080
predicted_RBI	0.7250
predicted_SLG	0.5684
predicted_SO	0.6000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1590	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.4900	3.5670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2536	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7300	0.6920	0.7077	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8850	0.8954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3090	0.3136	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3829	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7570	0.8080	0.7869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7250	0.7354	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5680	0.5684	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.6000	0.6426	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.875	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.875	3.000	1.125	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.333	0.076	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.333	-0.137	-0.083
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	3.500	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.609	0.667	0.391	0.333
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.875	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.024
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.126	0.251
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.718	-0.157
predicted_H	0.542	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.564	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.589	0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.3750	0.1250	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	8	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	0.1739	0.3871	0.6087	0.1739	0.1304	0.1739	0.3044	0.1739
season	0.20	8	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	0.1739	0.3871	0.6087	0.1739	0.1304	0.1739	0.3044	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4420
predicted_AVG	0.1916
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_H	0.6590
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.3041
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.3820
predicted_SLG	0.4225
predicted_SO	0.7010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1790	0.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8750	3.4420	3.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1916	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8750	0.5200	0.7180	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.6590	0.5424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.2010	0.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3041	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.4880	0.5644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3820	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4225	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7010	0.5889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.852	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.852	4.000	0.148	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.963	1.000	0.037	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.250	-0.029	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	1.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.519	0.000	-0.519	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.250	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SO	1.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	3.852	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.034
predicted_AB	3.733	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	0.017
predicted_H	1.106	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	-0.186

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.852

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.4118	0.4211	0.4118	0.4118	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2703	0.2927	0.2973	0.2703	0.0000	0.1622	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	27	-	104.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	5.000	36.000	0.2500	0.2793	0.3846	0.2500	0.0192	0.1346	0.0481	0.3462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.6390
predicted_AVG	0.3117
predicted_BB	0.2150
predicted_H	1.1340
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3388
predicted_R	0.3170
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3724
predicted_SO	1.0010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0860	0.1133	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.0140	0.0404	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8520	3.6390	3.7327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.2150	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1340	1.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.3170	0.3566	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4880	0.4757	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3724	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.0010	1.1470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2625

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.963	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.963	3.000	0.037	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.071	0.333
predicted_BB	0.259	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.178	0.500
predicted_R	0.259	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.259	0.000	0.741	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.000	0.033	0.333
predicted_SO	0.741	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	1.000	1.259	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.963	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.080
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.026	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000
predicted_H	0.693	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.313	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.3571	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3548	0.3571	0.2857	0.1429	0.1071	0.2143
season	0.20	27	-	80.000	21.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	20.000	0.2625	0.3218	0.3000	0.2625	0.0625	0.0875	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0800
predicted_AVG	0.2477
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.7630
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3078
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.3150
predicted_SLG	0.3583
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.2590	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9630	3.0800	3.0264	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2477	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2590	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7630	0.6929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3078	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.3590	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3150	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3583	0.3582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.7580	0.7502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2183

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.737	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	4.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	-0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	1.263	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.263	2.000	-0.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.737	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	1.263	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.095
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.874	0.137
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	-0.019
predicted_H	0.760	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.434	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.772	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.446	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.4762	0.1905	0.0476	0.2381	0.0476	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	12.000	0.1795	0.2727	0.4103	0.1795	0.0513	0.2051	0.1282	0.3077
season	0.20	38	-	142.000	31.000	8.000	10.000	28.000	17.000	14.000	48.000	0.2183	0.3190	0.4859	0.2183	0.0704	0.1972	0.0986	0.3380

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.2003
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2684
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.8090
predicted_SLG	0.4457
predicted_SO	1.3020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.3730	0.3057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7370	3.9710	3.8737	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.2003	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.3350	0.3487	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7950	0.7597	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1990	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2684	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4240	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.8090	0.7720	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4457	0.4458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2630	1.3020	1.2858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2817

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.838	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	3.000	-0.838	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.333	0.052	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	1.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.333	0.148	0.167
predicted_R	0.676	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.676	0.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.518	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.333	-0.054	0.000
predicted_SO	1.081	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	1.000	0.919	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.838	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.676	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.518	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.056
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.837	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	-0.087
predicted_H	1.200	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.707	0.031
predicted_RBI	0.223	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.518	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.185	0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.838

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	14.000	0.3333	0.3810	0.5128	0.3333	0.0256	0.0513	0.0769	0.3590
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	40.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	25.000	16.000	40.000	0.2817	0.3522	0.3873	0.2817	0.0141	0.0352	0.1127	0.2817

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8360
predicted_AVG	0.3238
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_H	1.2420
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3714
predicted_R	0.7290
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.5179
predicted_SO	1.2590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.3390	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8380	3.8360	3.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3238	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.2820	0.3446	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2420	1.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1282	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3714	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6760	0.7290	0.7069	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2330	0.2234	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5180	0.5179	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	1.2590	1.1848	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Erick Fedde (607200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.857	2.000	-1.857	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.286	4.000	-2.286	-4.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	4.286	6.000	-2.286	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.229	4.200	-0.129	0.900
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	3.429	2.000	2.571	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	11.000	19.000	11.000	16.000	7.000	3.6667	1.1111	0.4074	0.7037	0.4074	0.5926	0.2593
last_10	0.35	7	38.000	16.000	30.000	13.000	24.000	8.000	3.7895	1.1316	0.4210	0.7895	0.3421	0.6316	0.2105
season	0.20	7	38.000	16.000	30.000	13.000	24.000	8.000	3.7895	1.1316	0.4210	0.7895	0.3421	0.6316	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0660
predicted_ER	2.3130
predicted_ERA	3.9033
predicted_H	4.3420
predicted_HR	1.0560
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.0010
predicted_WHIP	1.2014

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.0660	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.3130	1.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9033	3.9033	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.3420	3.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0560	0.5005	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	4.0010	5.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2014	1.2014	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	6
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.79
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	75
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	44
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	607200
playerID	607200
playerName	Erick Fedde
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.283	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5860
predicted_ER	0.4040
predicted_ERA	2.9625
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3230
predicted_WHIP	1.4168

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5860	0.2118	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4040	0.7846	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9625	2.9625	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1530	1.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3230	0.4781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4168	1.4168	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5460
predicted_ER	0.7080
predicted_ERA	4.4927
predicted_H	1.3750
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2950
predicted_WHIP	1.3544

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5460	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7080	0.9231	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4927	4.4927	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3750	1.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2950	1.8143	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3544	1.3544	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	1.500	2.000	3.500	3.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.550	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.6730
predicted_ERA	4.6619
predicted_H	1.3070
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1820
predicted_WHIP	1.4055

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5190	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6730	1.6699	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6619	4.6619	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	1.3070	4.0814	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2070	0.0515	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1820	1.0453	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4055	1.4055	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3760
predicted_ERA	3.3885
predicted_H	0.9070
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0280
predicted_WHIP	1.2527

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3460	0.7956	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3760	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3885	3.3885	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9070	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0280	0.3213	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2527	1.2527	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260512_LAA@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.546321, "home_win_probability": 0.546321, "away_win_probability": 0.45367900000000005, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.546321, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	LAA 3 - 5 CLE	CLE	0.546	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	LAA 3 - 4 CLE	CLE	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away LAA	4-6	0.400	2.90	4.70	-18	1L	cold	average
Home CLE	5-5	0.500	4.90	4.30	6	1W	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-11	LAA @ CLE	2 - 7	CLE	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target LAA	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target CLE	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized LAA	34	8	2	0	3	2	9
Player finalized CLE	34	8	4	0	4	4	7
Player model fractional LAA	32.87	7.41	3.73	0.86	3.19	3.16	9.17
Player model fractional CLE	32.57	7.31	4.11	0.47	3.63	4.49	7.08
Simulation box LAA	37	10	3	3	3	1	8
Simulation box CLE	27	4	4	1	4	4	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away LAA	Starter	Walbert Urena	4.20	4	4	4	4	3.71	1.43	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Ryan Zeferjahn	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.52	1.11	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Sam Bachman	1.20	0	1	0	0	4.26	1.22	True
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Brent Suter	1	1	2	1	0	5.82	1.50	-
Away LAA	Middle Reliever	Chase Silseth	0.20	0	2	0	0	3.92	1.54	-
Home CLE	Starter	Slade Cecconi	4.20	2	5	6	1	5.50	1.58	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Cade Smith	1.10	1	0	2	0	3.29	1.18	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Matt Festa	1.10	0	1	1	0	4.40	1.33	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Tim Herrin	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.79	1.44	-
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Hunter Gaddis	1	0	1	0	0	5.52	1.64	True
Home CLE	Middle Reliever	Erik Sabrowski	0.20	0	1	1	0	2.96	1.01	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: LAA

Omar Martinez (683079) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 0

All-history rows before 20260512: 0

System season_avg: 0.2443

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2443

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.006	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.487	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.332	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.803	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.859	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.006	-
predicted_AB	3.487	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.332	-
predicted_H	0.803	-
predicted_HR	0.115	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.443	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.859	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.007
predicted_3B	0.008	0.002
predicted_AB	3.558	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.003
predicted_BB	0.321	-0.011
predicted_H	0.831	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.002
predicted_R	0.432	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.004
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0140
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2443
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3948
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1810	0.1571	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0060	0.0140	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4870	3.7990	3.5580	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2443	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3320	0.2840	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8030	0.9280	0.8314	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1150	0.1210	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.3057	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.4910	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4430	0.4730	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3948	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8590	0.8540	0.8579	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1702

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.357	2.000	0.643	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.170	1.000	-0.170	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	1.000	-0.291	-1.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.287	1.000	-0.287	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.393	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.393	0.000	-0.393	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.357	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	1.393	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.019	0.019
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.355	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.157
predicted_H	0.600	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000
predicted_R	0.203	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.128	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	1.326	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	13.000	0.1562	0.2286	0.1562	0.1562	0.0000	0.0000	0.0938	0.4062
season	0.20	28	-	94.000	16.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	39.000	0.1702	0.2909	0.2872	0.1702	0.0319	0.0851	0.1489	0.4149

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0340
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3530
predicted_AVG	0.1883
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_H	0.6320
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.2404
predicted_R	0.1380
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.2390
predicted_SO	1.2730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0340	0.0190	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0080	0.0203	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3570	3.3530	3.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1883	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.2190	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6320	0.6003	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2404	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.1380	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1340	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2390	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3930	1.2730	1.3259	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2263

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.605	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.605	4.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.250	-0.226	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	1.000	-0.816	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.400	-0.327	-0.400
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.445	0.250	-0.445	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.316	1.000	-0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.605	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	1.316	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.515	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.494	0.020
predicted_H	0.712	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	-0.000
predicted_R	0.490	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	-0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.2000	0.3171	0.4000	0.2000	0.0571	0.1429	0.1429	0.3429
season	0.20	38	-	137.000	31.000	6.000	8.000	28.000	20.000	18.000	50.000	0.2263	0.3272	0.4453	0.2263	0.0584	0.2044	0.1314	0.3650

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4510
predicted_AVG	0.2066
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.3295
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3499
predicted_SO	1.0930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1620	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6050	3.4510	3.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2066	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.5080	0.4939	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7130	0.7118	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1090	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3295	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.4640	0.4898	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4140	0.4123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3499	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3160	1.0930	1.1858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

System season_avg: 0.2830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2833

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.529	5.000	0.471	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.283	0.200	-0.033	0.050
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.200	-0.107	0.050
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.200	0.583	0.800
predicted_SO	0.188	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.176	0.000	1.824	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.312	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.740	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.391	-0.047
predicted_H	0.806	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	-0.000
predicted_R	0.308	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.547	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.330	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3095	0.4211	0.2632	0.0263	0.1842	0.0790	0.0526
season	0.20	16	-	60.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	0.2833	0.3529	0.4167	0.2833	0.0167	0.1500	0.1167	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2340
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.2301
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2958
predicted_R	0.2470
predicted_RBI	0.5810
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	0.4600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3120	0.2340	0.2714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7300	3.7396	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2301	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.3470	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8580	0.8062	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2958	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.2470	0.3084	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5810	0.5470	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1880	0.4600	0.3296	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.283

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2483

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.537	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.537	4.000	0.463	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.252	0.250
predicted_BB	0.927	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	1.000	1.122	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.400	0.186	0.200
predicted_R	0.805	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.805	0.000	-0.805	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	0.000	-0.561	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.510	0.250	-0.010	0.250
predicted_SO	1.171	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	2.000	-1.171	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.537	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.927	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.805	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.630	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.699	-0.228
predicted_H	0.768	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.571	-0.234
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	1.402	0.231

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	18.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.3333	0.2500	0.0278	0.0556	0.1667	0.5000
season	0.20	41	-	145.000	36.000	5.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	38.000	48.000	0.2483	0.4140	0.5103	0.2483	0.0759	0.1586	0.2621	0.3310

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6940
predicted_AVG	0.2132
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3136
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.3044
predicted_SO	1.5610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.0460	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5370	3.6940	3.6298	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2132	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9270	0.5410	0.6988	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7880	0.7684	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0935	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3136	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8050	0.4100	0.5714	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3020	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.5610	1.4016	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2216

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	5.000	1.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.200	-0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.881	1.000	0.119	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.200	-0.125	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.200	0.405	0.600
predicted_SO	1.429	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.429	1.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.077	0.053
predicted_AB	3.974	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	-0.094
predicted_H	0.890	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.075	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.689	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.262	-0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3043	0.4000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.1842	0.2727	0.3421	0.1842	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.20	42	-	167.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	28.000	24.000	60.000	0.2216	0.3247	0.3952	0.2216	0.0359	0.1078	0.1437	0.3593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1690
predicted_3B	0.1130
predicted_AB	3.9080
predicted_AVG	0.2244
predicted_BB	0.4130
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2984
predicted_R	0.7040
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.3809
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1690	0.1873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.1130	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	3.9080	3.9739	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2244	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4130	0.4772	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8770	0.8904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0720	0.0753	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2984	0.2982	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7040	0.6890	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3840	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3809	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4290	1.1470	1.2617	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.1630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1633

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.379	4.000	0.621	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.500	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.163	0.500	0.337	0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.552	2.000	1.448	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	0.862	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.187	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.210	0.500	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	0.000	0.759	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	0.000	0.655	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.243	1.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.500	0.954	0.750
predicted_SO	1.069	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.069	1.000	0.931	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.379	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.187	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.243	-
predicted_SO	1.069	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.469	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	-0.047
predicted_H	0.531	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.187	0.000
predicted_R	0.215	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.243	0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	10.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.0278	0.0278	0.0000	0.2778
season	0.20	29	-	98.000	16.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	31.000	0.1633	0.2095	0.2959	0.1633	0.0408	0.1020	0.0510	0.3163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5400
predicted_AVG	0.1662
predicted_BB	0.0870
predicted_H	0.5880
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_OBP	0.1871
predicted_R	0.1940
predicted_RBI	0.1810
predicted_SLG	0.2430
predicted_SO	1.0560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0340	0.0430	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3790	3.5400	3.4685	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1662	0.1661	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.0870	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5880	0.5312	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0740	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1870	0.1871	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.1940	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1810	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0690	1.0560	1.0618	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.163

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	2.000	0.974	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.191	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.750	0.116	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.265	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.907	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	-0.053
predicted_H	1.055	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.437	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	0.729	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.3077	0.3250	0.4103	0.3077	0.0000	0.0256	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	39.000	10.000	3.000	20.000	14.000	11.000	26.000	0.2583	0.3091	0.3841	0.2583	0.0199	0.1325	0.0728	0.1722

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8590
predicted_AVG	0.2726
predicted_BB	0.1990
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3098
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.3675
predicted_SO	0.7600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2660	0.2648	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	3.8590	3.9067	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.1990	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0520	1.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.4860	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3675	0.3673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.7600	0.7285	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2788

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.119	1.000	-0.119	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.929	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.929	4.000	0.071	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.500	0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.095	2.000	0.905	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.182	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.670	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.750	0.082	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	1.000	-0.929	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.344	-
predicted_BB	0.095	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.381	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.670	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	0.152
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.722	-0.207
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.000
predicted_BB	0.071	-0.024
predicted_H	1.214	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.250	-
predicted_HR	0.257	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.380	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.622	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.670	0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.929

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.4118	0.4737	0.9412	0.4118	0.1177	0.2353	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.3429	0.3784	0.6000	0.3429	0.0571	0.1429	0.0000	0.3143
season	0.20	42	-	165.000	46.000	5.000	6.000	24.000	16.000	4.000	39.000	0.2788	0.3182	0.4182	0.2788	0.0364	0.1454	0.0242	0.2364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.3441
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.2500
predicted_HR	0.2620
predicted_OBP	0.3942
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.6300
predicted_SLG	0.6702
predicted_SO	1.0840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1190	0.3780	0.2714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9290	3.5780	3.7224	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3440	0.3441	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0950	0.0540	0.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2310	1.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2500	0.2500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2620	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3810	0.3800	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6300	0.6218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6700	0.6702	0.6701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	1.0840	1.0202	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Walbert Urena (700712) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	2.667	3.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	1.333	1.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	3.167	2.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.567	6.000	0.633	-1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.200	8.000	18.000	15.000	21.000	1.000	3.3231	1.5231	0.3692	0.8308	0.6923	0.9692	0.0461
last_10	0.35	6	22.100	8.000	19.000	16.000	22.000	1.000	3.2239	1.5672	0.3582	0.8508	0.7164	0.9851	0.0448
season	0.20	6	22.100	8.000	19.000	16.000	22.000	1.000	3.2239	1.5672	0.3582	0.8508	0.7164	0.9851	0.0448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4510
predicted_ER	1.8290
predicted_ERA	3.7115
predicted_H	3.9120
predicted_HR	0.3700
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.2810
predicted_WHIP	1.4345

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.4510	3.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.8290	3.0057	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7115	3.7115	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.9120	3.9597	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3700	0.7115	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	4.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.2810	4.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4345	1.4345	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	4
SO	4
HR	1
BF	26
Pitches	112

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.22
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	700712
playerID	700712
playerName	Walbert Urena
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.343	1.000	-0.143	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.929	2.000	-0.929	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	6.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	3.7674	1.0465	0.4186	0.5581	0.4884	1.1861
season	0.20	14	20.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	4.3548	1.0645	0.4839	0.5323	0.5323	1.3064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6900
predicted_ER	0.6190
predicted_ERA	3.5180
predicted_H	1.0730
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.7580
predicted_WHIP	1.1133

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6900	0.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6190	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5180	3.5180	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0730	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0468	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7580	1.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1133	1.1133	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.157	0.100	0.043	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	6.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.6000	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	14	19.000	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3158	1.1053	0.3684	0.5789	0.5263	1.1053	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5870
predicted_ER	0.6910
predicted_ERA	4.2648
predicted_H	1.1970
predicted_HR	0.2590
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4830
predicted_WHIP	1.2237

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5870	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6910	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2648	4.2648	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1970	0.4900	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2590	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4830	1.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2237	1.2237	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.375	2.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.369	1.200	-0.369	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.438	1.000	0.562	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	9.0000	1.8000	1.0000	1.2000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	9.000	12.000	7.000	10.000	2.000	7.3636	1.7273	0.8182	1.0909	0.6364	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	16	24.000	12.000	22.000	11.000	23.000	3.000	4.5000	1.3750	0.5000	0.9167	0.4583	0.9583	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_ER	0.6680
predicted_ERA	5.8215
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9900
predicted_WHIP	1.5010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4960	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6680	0.8560	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8215	5.8215	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0540	1.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0486	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9900	1.5619	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5010	1.5010	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	2.000	-0.406	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	4.000	1.176	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	2.1429	0.4286	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	0.0000
season	0.20	17	13.100	4.000	12.000	10.000	14.000	1.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.9000	0.7500	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_ER	0.3130
predicted_ERA	3.9221
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6820
predicted_WHIP	1.5446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3960	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3130	0.1170	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9221	3.9221	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7140	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6820	1.5072	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5446	1.5446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: CLE

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	-0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.500	-0.211	-0.500
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.750	-0.173	-0.500
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	1.000	-0.583	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.415	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.037
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.262	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.922	-0.078
predicted_H	0.775	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.207	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	0.005
predicted_RBI	0.572	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	0.2667	0.5217	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.3750	0.2500	0.0312	0.1875	0.3125	0.1875
season	0.20	12	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	0.2105	0.4231	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.1579	0.3158	0.1842

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2477
predicted_BB	0.8430
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.2070
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.4152
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.4199
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1570	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.3580	3.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2477	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8430	0.9222	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8320	0.7755	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2070	0.2070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1370	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4150	0.4152	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.5920	0.5875	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6150	0.5721	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4199	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.6860	0.6340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2039

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2040

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.897	3.000	0.103	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	-0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	2.000	-0.538	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.795	0.000	-0.795	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.400	-0.307	-0.400
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	1.000	1.462	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.237	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.922	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.650	0.112
predicted_H	0.693	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.537	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.139	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.1579	0.3333	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.2632	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.1538	0.2979	0.1795	0.1538	0.0000	0.0256	0.1795	0.1538
season	0.20	39	-	152.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	21.000	21.000	0.2039	0.3068	0.2632	0.2039	0.0066	0.0592	0.1382	0.1382

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8460
predicted_AVG	0.1771
predicted_BB	0.7280
predicted_H	0.6810
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0220
predicted_OBP	0.3142
predicted_R	0.5900
predicted_RBI	0.1380
predicted_SLG	0.2371
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1600	0.1575	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.8460	3.9217	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1771	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.7280	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.6810	0.6929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0220	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3142	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.5900	0.5373	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1380	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2370	0.2371	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.7050	0.6363	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	4.000	-1.533	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.500	-0.189	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	1.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.600	-0.025	-0.350
predicted_R	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.300	2.000	0.700	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.245	0.750	-0.245	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.233	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.233	0.000	-1.233	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	1.233	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.088
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.562	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	0.046
predicted_H	0.830	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.517	0.217
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.183

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2619	0.2432	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	30	-	106.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	11.000	37.000	0.1887	0.2750	0.2453	0.1887	0.0094	0.0849	0.1038	0.3491

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5850
predicted_AVG	0.2379
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.6840
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.3346
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.2560	0.1882	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.5850	3.5624	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2379	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.4490	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8530	0.8300	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0289	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.6840	0.5172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4740	0.4592	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3346	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2330	0.9090	1.0498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 43

All-history rows before 20260512: 43

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2152

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.186	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.186	0.000	-0.186	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.674	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.674	5.000	0.326	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.035	0.250
predicted_BB	0.721	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.721	0.000	-0.721	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.047	0.000	-0.047	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.791	0.000	0.209	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.140	0.000	-0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.094	0.250
predicted_R	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.372	0.000	-0.372	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	-0.130	0.250
predicted_SO	0.628	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.628	1.000	1.372	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.674	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.721	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.581	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.628	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.736	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.764	0.043
predicted_H	0.875	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.582	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.762	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 43

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2632	0.4167	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.2632	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2368	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.2105	0.2105
season	0.20	43	-	158.000	34.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	31.000	27.000	0.2152	0.3439	0.3797	0.2152	0.0380	0.1013	0.1962	0.1709

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	0.7930
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3681
predicted_R	0.5820
predicted_RBI	0.4050
predicted_SLG	0.2934
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1860	0.0880	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6740	3.7780	3.7356	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7210	0.7930	0.7636	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8930	0.8755	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3681	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5810	0.5820	0.5816	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4050	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2934	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6280	0.8540	0.7618	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	43
Season rows before report date	43
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	43
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	3.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	0.000	-1.114	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	-0.120	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	0.000	-0.511	0.000
predicted_SO	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.033
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.934	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.483	-0.031
predicted_H	1.169	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.748	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	0.458	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	16.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.4103	0.4889	0.5897	0.4103	0.0256	0.2308	0.1538	0.0769
season	0.20	35	-	135.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	16.000	18.000	16.000	0.2889	0.3701	0.5111	0.2889	0.0444	0.1852	0.1333	0.1185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9890
predicted_AVG	0.2981
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_H	1.1890
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3696
predicted_R	0.3550
predicted_RBI	0.7610
predicted_SLG	0.4482
predicted_SO	0.4580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3430	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.9890	3.9337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.4610	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1890	1.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3696	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.3550	0.3977	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7610	0.7480	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4482	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4570	0.4580	0.4576	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2762

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.433	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.967	1.000	-0.967	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.333	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	-0.023	0.083
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	2.000	-0.467	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.250	-0.467	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.133	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	0.000	-1.133	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.570	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.543	0.110
predicted_H	0.775	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	1.127	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.2778	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0833	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.20	30	-	105.000	29.000	8.000	4.000	15.000	14.000	13.000	34.000	0.2762	0.3559	0.4667	0.2762	0.0381	0.1429	0.1238	0.3238

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.2275
predicted_BB	0.6280
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3408
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.3161
predicted_SO	1.1230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2670	0.1790	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6240	3.5700	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2275	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.6280	0.5431	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8250	0.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3408	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4730	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4750	0.4467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3161	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.1230	1.1274	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

System season_avg: 0.1410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1410

System opponent_avg: 0.1410

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1410. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.036	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.036	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.179	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.021	0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.128	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.050
predicted_H	0.469	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.000
predicted_R	0.183	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.217	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.947	0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.1333	0.1613	0.2333	0.1333	0.0333	0.1333	0.0333	0.3667
season	0.20	28	-	85.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	23.000	0.1412	0.1978	0.1765	0.1412	0.0118	0.0588	0.0706	0.2706

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2040
predicted_AVG	0.1620
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	0.5190
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.1931
predicted_R	0.1870
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2309
predicted_SO	1.0520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0380	0.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0360	3.2040	3.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1620	0.1620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.1220	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5190	0.4694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1931	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1790	0.1870	0.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2400	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2309	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	1.0520	0.9470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.141

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	672275
playerID	672275
playerName	Patrick Bailey
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2672

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.867	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.867	5.000	-0.867	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.200	0.399	0.467
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.033	1.000	0.967	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.200	0.352	0.467
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	1.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.200	0.210	0.467
predicted_SO	0.867	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	2.000	-0.867	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.867	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.892	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.193	0.025
predicted_H	0.658	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	-0.094
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.067	0.200

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.867

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1795	0.2381	0.2308	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.3077
season	0.20	30	-	116.000	31.000	7.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2672	0.3145	0.4569	0.2672	0.0431	0.1379	0.0431	0.2241

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.1774
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.6940
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2432
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.2518
predicted_SO	1.2190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2330	0.1310	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8670	3.9110	3.8920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1774	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2120	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6940	0.6577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.3020	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2810	0.2676	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2518	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	1.2190	1.0668	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.122	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.122	0.000	-0.122	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.341	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.341	4.000	-0.341	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.056	0.083
predicted_BB	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	-0.341	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	0.927	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.250	-0.024	0.083
predicted_R	0.415	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.415	0.000	0.585	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	2.000	1.488	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.250	0.954	1.083
predicted_SO	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.341	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.415	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.341	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.563	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	0.017
predicted_H	1.061	0.191
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.028	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.395	0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.4737	0.4210	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3488	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.20	41	-	137.000	38.000	5.000	3.000	21.000	17.000	14.000	14.000	0.2774	0.3571	0.3796	0.2774	0.0219	0.1533	0.1022	0.1022

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.3220
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	1.1990
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.4001
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.3988
predicted_SO	0.4340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1220	0.1830	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3410	3.7230	3.5630	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.3710	0.3584	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.1990	1.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0330	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.4001	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4150	0.4920	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.4330	0.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3988	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3410	0.4340	0.3950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Slade Cecconi (677944) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	3.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	3.500	2.000	-1.500	0.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	6.125	6.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.950	5.100	-0.750	-0.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	3.875	3.000	1.125	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	18.000	35.000	11.000	17.000	5.000	6.3947	1.8158	0.7105	1.3816	0.4342	0.6711	0.1974
last_10	0.35	8	41.000	28.000	49.000	16.000	31.000	8.000	6.1463	1.5854	0.6829	1.1951	0.3902	0.7561	0.1951
season	0.20	8	41.000	28.000	49.000	16.000	31.000	8.000	6.1463	1.5854	0.6829	1.1951	0.3902	0.7561	0.1951

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9740
predicted_ER	2.9770
predicted_ERA	5.4996
predicted_H	5.7250
predicted_HR	0.8300
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.5804

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.9740	1.4748	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.9770	2.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4996	5.4996	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	5.7250	5.8659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8300	0.9171	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.8880	4.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5804	1.5804	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.15
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	45
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677944
playerID	677944
playerName	Slade Cecconi
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.056	2.000	0.944	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	0.094	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-1.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	11.000	1.000	14.000	0.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	1.0645	0.0968	1.3548	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.100	7.000	19.000	4.000	24.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	1.0364	0.2182	1.3091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.4360
predicted_ERA	3.2926
predicted_H	1.1100
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4130
predicted_WHIP	1.1835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3020	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4360	0.7712	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2926	3.2926	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1100	1.6390	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0940	1.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4130	0.5731	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1835	1.1835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	2
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.872	1.000	0.228	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.0000	0.6000	1.2000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	4.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	2.000	3.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.6774	0.3871	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	18	19.200	11.000	19.000	5.000	20.000	4.000	5.0339	1.2203	0.5593	0.9661	0.2542	1.0170	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4920
predicted_ER	0.5800
predicted_ERA	4.3967
predicted_H	1.0850
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2370
predicted_WHIP	1.3279

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4920	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5800	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3967	4.3967	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0850	1.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2360	0.0974	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2370	1.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3279	1.3279	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.03
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_LAA@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.631	1.000	0.469	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.375	1.000	1.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	3.000	2.000	1.8462	1.1539	0.6923	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	1.5556	0.8889	0.6667	0.3333
season	0.20	16	12.200	11.000	8.000	6.000	1.5000	0.8684	0.6316	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5740
predicted_ER	0.3720
predicted_ERA	2.7888
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.9320
predicted_WHIP	1.4397

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5740	0.2118	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3720	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7888	2.7888	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1530	0.4255	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9320	1.6059	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4397	1.4397	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	-0.636
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.182	0.000	-1.182
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	0.400
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	12.0000	3.3333	1.3333	2.6667	0.6667	0.6667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	6.7500	1.7500	0.7500	1.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.2500
season	0.20	10	8.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	6.7500	1.7500	0.7500	1.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.5640
predicted_ERA	5.5232
predicted_H	1.1220
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8480
predicted_WHIP	1.6395

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3850	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5640	0.1858	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5232	5.5232	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1220	0.3696	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1550	0.0511	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8480	0.9499	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6395	1.6395	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.680	1.000	-0.480	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.450	2.000	-0.450	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	2.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.000	2.1600	0.8400	0.2400	0.3600	0.4800	1.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	17.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	29.000	1.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.4038	0.4038	1.6731	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.2280
predicted_ERA	2.9606
predicted_H	0.4450
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.9210
predicted_WHIP	1.0138

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2280	0.0912	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9606	2.9606	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4450	0.7781	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0224	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9684	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0138	1.0138	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260512_MIA@MIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 MIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 MIN", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIA 5 - 6 MIN", "winner": "MIN"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	MIA 5 - 6 MIN	MIN	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	MIA 5 - 6 MIN	MIN	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away MIA	4-6	0.400	4.10	4.50	-4	2W	average	average
Home MIN	5-5	0.500	4.70	5.80	-11	2W	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target MIA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target MIN	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Player finalized MIA	33	9	5	0	3	2	8
Player finalized MIN	35	9	3	0	3	3	9
Player model fractional MIA	32.61	7.78	4.21	1.18	4.20	3.19	8.00
Player model fractional MIN	33.29	8.25	4.77	0.82	3.60	3.66	7.67
Simulation box MIA	43	10	5	1	5	1	8
Simulation box MIN	38	5	6	0	6	5	12

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away MIA	Starter	Eury Pérez	4.10	2	4	0	0	4.68	1.40	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Calvin Faucher	1.20	4	2	3	3	3.19	1.27	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	John King	1	0	1	0	1	2.57	0.99	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Tyler Phillips	1	0	1	0	0	2.96	1.37	True
Away MIA	Middle Reliever	Anthony Bender	0.20	0	1	1	1	3.23	1.03	True
Away MIA	Reliever	Josh Ekness	-	-	-	-	-	4.02	1.27	-
Home MIN	Starter	Bailey Ober	4.20	1	1	5	0	3.98	1.23	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Justin Topa	2.10	3	1	3	1	8.02	1.77	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Taylor Rogers	1.20	0	2	0	0	3.33	1.32	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Andrew Morris	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.52	1.25	True
Home MIN	Middle Reliever	Eric Orze	1	1	2	2	0	3.97	1.38	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: MIA

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3176

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4230

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	1.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.250	0.082	0.150
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.175	1.000	0.825	1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.250	-0.006	0.150
predicted_R	0.675	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	1.000	0.325	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.250	-0.073	0.150
predicted_SO	0.475	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.475	2.000	0.525	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.050	-
predicted_AB	3.830	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.475	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.027	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.820	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.055
predicted_H	0.946	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.278	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.674	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.509	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.569	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.830

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	4.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.5128	0.2564	0.0769	0.1282	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	47.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	27.000	22.000	19.000	0.3176	0.4059	0.4730	0.3176	0.0270	0.0946	0.1487	0.1284

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8130
predicted_AVG	0.2474
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2760
predicted_OBP	0.3286
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.4935
predicted_SO	0.6350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.0870	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0500	0.0110	0.0271	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8300	3.8130	3.8200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2474	0.2472	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.4570	0.4954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9430	0.9459	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2760	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3286	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.6730	0.6738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5080	0.5088	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4935	0.4933	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4750	0.6350	0.5689	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.257	3.000	1.743	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.333	-0.228	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.743	1.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	-0.341	-0.500
predicted_R	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.314	2.000	-0.314	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.667	-0.368	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.229	0.000	-0.229	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.257	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.314	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.229	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.191	-0.066
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	0.060
predicted_H	0.692	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.461	0.147
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.307	0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	0.2258	0.3684	0.2903	0.2258	0.0000	0.0645	0.1935	0.5161
season	0.20	35	-	114.000	26.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	15.000	43.000	0.2281	0.3407	0.3684	0.2281	0.0263	0.1053	0.1316	0.3772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1420
predicted_AVG	0.2253
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3600
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.3204
predicted_SO	1.3650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1990	0.1994	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2570	3.1420	3.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2253	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.5330	0.4886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7080	0.6918	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3600	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3140	0.5700	0.4607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2660	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3204	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2290	1.3650	1.3070	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Heriberto Hernández (681715) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1692

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.611	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.611	4.000	1.389	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.500	-0.169	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	2.000	-0.611	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.500	-0.200	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.611	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.033	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.650	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.059
predicted_H	0.707	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.256	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.633	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.1892	0.1892	0.1081	0.0811	0.2162
season	0.20	18	-	65.000	11.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.1692	0.2500	0.2000	0.1692	0.1385	0.1077	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.6850
predicted_AVG	0.2131
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2706
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.2617
predicted_SO	0.6020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0510	0.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0120	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6110	3.6850	3.6499	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2131	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.2760	0.3296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7850	0.7067	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2706	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.2860	0.2556	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4350	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2617	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6020	0.6328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681715
playerID	681715
playerName	Heriberto Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.375	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.375	4.000	1.625	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.250	0.215	0.150
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	1.375	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.250	0.133	0.150
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.185	0.250	0.415	0.350
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	2.000	-0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.375	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.037
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.472	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.000
predicted_H	0.622	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.285	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	1.193	-0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.4118
last_10	0.35	8	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1852	0.2667	0.1852	0.1852	0.0370	0.0741	0.3704
season	0.20	8	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1852	0.2667	0.1852	0.1852	0.0370	0.0741	0.3704

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.1917
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.6890
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2521
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.2670
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0850	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3750	3.5960	3.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1917	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2490	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6890	0.6222	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2521	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3460	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3170	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2670	0.2670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1210	1.1934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3243

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	3.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.333	-0.074	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.323	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	0.677	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.161	1.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.290	0.000	0.710	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.017	-0.100
predicted_R	0.613	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.613	0.000	0.387	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.129	1.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.624	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.595	0.333	0.405	0.667
predicted_SO	0.323	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.323	0.000	0.677	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	1.160	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.613	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.624	-
predicted_SO	0.323	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.563	-0.018
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.060
predicted_H	1.159	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.332	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.521	-0.092
predicted_RBI	1.031	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.624	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.441	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.093

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.7222	0.3889	0.1111	0.3333	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	0.000	4.000	11.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.3030	0.4146	0.6667	0.3030	0.1212	0.3333	0.1818	0.1818
season	0.20	31	-	111.000	36.000	3.000	9.000	35.000	19.000	10.000	10.000	0.3243	0.3828	0.5946	0.3243	0.0811	0.3153	0.0901	0.0901

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5500
predicted_AVG	0.3266
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	1.1590
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.3340
predicted_OBP	0.4112
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	1.0320
predicted_SLG	0.6236
predicted_SO	0.5300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0480	0.0691	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.5500	3.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3266	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.4290	0.3834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1600	1.1590	1.1594	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3340	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4112	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6130	0.4510	0.5207	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.0320	1.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6240	0.6236	0.6238	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3230	0.5300	0.4409	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.350	0.350
predicted_R	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.184	0.500
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.322	0.155
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.032
predicted_H	0.731	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.244	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.835	0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632
season	0.20	6	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5580
predicted_AVG	0.2444
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3837
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2760	0.3104	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.5580	3.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2444	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2470	0.1987	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8700	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2987	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3620	0.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3530	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3837	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8380	0.8350	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	2.000	1.222	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.165	0.400
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	1.111	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.067	-0.100
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.000	0.262	0.600
predicted_SO	1.056	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.726	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.023
predicted_H	0.840	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.596	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.086	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.20	18	-	68.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	8.000	19.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3382	0.2353	0.0147	0.0441	0.1177	0.2794

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.2302
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3256
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.3872
predicted_SO	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1720	0.1954	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.6810	3.7263	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2302	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4010	0.4211	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8480	0.8396	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1330	0.1316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3256	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.6310	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3350	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	1.1130	1.0864	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.3420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3418

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3420

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	4.051	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	4.000	0.949	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.342	0.000	-0.142	0.200
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.385	0.000	-0.385	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.000	-0.171	0.200
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	1.000	1.564	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.506	0.000	-0.306	0.200
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	4.051	-
predicted_AVG	0.348	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	1.380	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.526	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.288	0.032
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.023
predicted_AB	4.167	0.116
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.000
predicted_BB	0.108	-0.046
predicted_H	1.439	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.363	-0.000
predicted_R	0.625	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.437	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.526	0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	-0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.345 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.051

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3636	0.3636	0.5909	0.3636	0.0454	0.0909	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	0.3864	0.3864	0.5227	0.3864	0.0227	0.1136	0.0000	0.1364
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	54.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	26.000	6.000	30.000	0.3418	0.3713	0.5063	0.3418	0.0253	0.1076	0.0380	0.1899

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3100
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.2490
predicted_AVG	0.3485
predicted_BB	0.0760
predicted_H	1.4810
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3628
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.5265
predicted_SO	0.6020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.3100	0.2876	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0120	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0510	4.2490	4.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3480	0.3485	0.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0760	0.1083	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3800	1.4810	1.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3628	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5950	0.6248	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4490	0.4370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5260	0.5265	0.5263	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.6020	0.6712	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.342

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1793

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	2.000	1.184	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.500	-0.179	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.750	-0.306	-0.750
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.184	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	1.000	-0.184	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.605	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.028
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.700	-0.116
predicted_AVG	0.183	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.512	-0.093
predicted_H	0.644	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.243	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.547	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.655	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.268	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.4118	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	0.1622	0.2955	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.1351	0.1351	0.4865
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	26.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	22.000	23.000	45.000	0.1793	0.3064	0.2759	0.1793	0.0138	0.0828	0.1586	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6190
predicted_AVG	0.1827
predicted_BB	0.4470
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HBP	0.2430
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3134
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.6720
predicted_SLG	0.3439
predicted_SO	1.3270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1530	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0110	0.0283	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.6190	3.7003	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1827	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6050	0.4470	0.5122	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6610	0.6441	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2430	0.2430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1360	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3134	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.5240	0.5467	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6720	0.6547	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3439	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	1.3270	1.2680	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Eury Pérez (691587) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.625	5.000	-2.625	-5.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.875	5.000	-0.875	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	4.750	4.000	-4.750	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.138	5.000	-1.038	-0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	5.625	6.000	-1.625	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	14.000	25.000	12.000	27.000	3.000	4.9737	1.4605	0.5526	0.9868	0.4737	1.0658	0.1184
last_10	0.35	8	41.100	23.000	38.000	21.000	45.000	7.000	5.0081	1.4274	0.5565	0.9194	0.5081	1.0887	0.1694
season	0.20	8	41.100	23.000	38.000	21.000	45.000	7.000	5.0081	1.4274	0.5565	0.9194	0.5081	1.0887	0.1694

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1390
predicted_ER	2.5010
predicted_ERA	4.6805
predicted_H	4.5950
predicted_HR	0.6360
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.4004

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1390	1.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.5010	2.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6805	4.6805	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	4.5950	2.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6360	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.9470	4.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4004	1.4004	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	0
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	4
HR	0
BF	15
Pitches	60

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	5
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.01
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691587
playerID	691587
playerName	Eury Pérez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	0.765	1.000	2.235	2.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	3.647	4.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	2.412	3.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	2.000	0.341	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	0.7000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	17	16.000	6.000	10.000	13.000	16.000	3.3750	1.4375	0.3750	0.6250	0.8125	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_ER	0.5200
predicted_ERA	3.1931
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HR	0.1150
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2200
predicted_WHIP	1.2711

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.7250	2.1087	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.5200	2.6366	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1931	3.1931	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.1380	2.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1150	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2200	1.6944	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2711	1.2711	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	2
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	47

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	0.100	0.332	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4444	0.0000	0.1111	0.3333	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.200	1.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.5400	0.5400	0.0600	0.1800	0.3600	0.9000	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.5652
predicted_H	0.6020
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8380
predicted_WHIP	0.9892

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3280	0.7339	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5652	2.5652	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6020	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8380	0.9359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9892	0.9892	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.083	1.000	-1.083	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.500	1.000	-1.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.875	2.100	-0.875	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.5000	0.2308	1.0385	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	19.200	3.000	16.000	11.000	19.000	1.000	1.3729	1.3729	0.1525	0.8136	0.5593	0.9661	0.0508
season	0.20	12	23.200	3.000	18.000	13.000	24.000	1.000	1.1408	1.3099	0.1268	0.7606	0.5493	1.0141	0.0423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6290
predicted_ER	0.4640
predicted_ERA	2.9573
predicted_H	1.3030
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2800
predicted_WHIP	1.3678

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6290	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4640	0.2006	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9573	2.9573	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3030	0.5633	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2800	1.1211	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3678	1.3678	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	-0.471	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.5769	0.2308	1.1539
season	0.20	17	14.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.7500	0.5454	1.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.2840
predicted_ERA	3.2331
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7470
predicted_WHIP	1.0340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2450	0.7107	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2840	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2331	3.2331	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5710	0.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7470	0.9031	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0340	1.0340	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Josh Ekness (694795) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 4

All-history rows before 20260512: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	0.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_ER	-	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	-	1.000	-	Pitching_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	-	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	0.100	1.325	2.000
predicted_SO	-	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	2.500	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	4	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.6000
season	0.20	4	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_ER	0.1660
predicted_ERA	4.0190
predicted_H	0.3350
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3410
predicted_WHIP	1.2718

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1380	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1660	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0190	4.0190	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3350	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0420	0.0116	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3410	0.0944	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2718	1.2718	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	694795
playerID	694795
playerName	Josh Ekness
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Home Team: MIN

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.3010

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3010

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3010

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.679	4.000	1.321	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.301	0.250	-0.101	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.107	1.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.250	-0.197	-0.050
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.821	0.000	-0.821	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.524	0.500	-0.324	-0.300
predicted_SO	0.786	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	1.214	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.679	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.355	0.141
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.793	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.533	-0.038
predicted_H	1.149	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.000
predicted_R	0.754	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.553	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.6500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	7.000	0.3590	0.4222	0.6154	0.3590	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.1795
season	0.20	28	-	103.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	21.000	16.000	22.000	0.3010	0.3967	0.5243	0.3010	0.0485	0.2233	0.1553	0.2136

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4640
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8810
predicted_AVG	0.3056
predicted_BB	0.5040
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.3838
predicted_R	0.7570
predicted_RBI	0.5700
predicted_SLG	0.5694
predicted_SO	0.7110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.4640	0.3555	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0090	0.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6790	3.8810	3.7933	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3056	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.5040	0.5331	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1860	1.1487	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1800	0.1757	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3838	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.7570	0.7540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5700	0.5526	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5694	0.5692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.7110	0.7435	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.301

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.380	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.263	4.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.250	-0.259	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.310	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	1.000	-1.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.400	-0.312	-0.400
predicted_R	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.658	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.556	0.250	-0.556	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.211	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.211	2.000	-0.211	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.380	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.789	-
predicted_RBI	0.820	-
predicted_SLG	0.658	-
predicted_SO	1.211	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.068
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.309	-0.071
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.018
predicted_H	1.290	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.411	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.783	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.805	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.658	0.000
predicted_SO	1.227	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.094

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.380

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.6818	0.3182	0.0909	0.1818	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	11.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	0.3256	0.3696	0.8140	0.3256	0.1395	0.2558	0.0698	0.2326
season	0.20	38	-	162.000	42.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	21.000	30.000	11.000	46.000	0.2593	0.3125	0.5556	0.2593	0.0803	0.1296	0.0679	0.2839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2990
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.2590
predicted_AVG	0.2996
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	1.2760
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.4050
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.7790
predicted_RBI	0.7950
predicted_SLG	0.6580
predicted_SO	1.2380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.2990	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3800	4.2590	4.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2996	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.2590	0.2713	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.2760	1.2900	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4050	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7890	0.7790	0.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8200	0.7950	0.8053	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6580	0.6580	0.6580	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2110	1.2380	1.2269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 26

All-history rows before 20260512: 26

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1705

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	1.000	-0.115	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	4.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.250	-0.170	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.577	1.000	-0.577	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.250	-0.267	-0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.500	-0.307	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.115	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.115	2.000	0.885	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.151	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.225	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	1.115	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.022
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.511	0.126
predicted_AVG	0.151	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	-0.075
predicted_H	0.485	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.225	-0.000
predicted_R	0.426	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	-0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1111	0.1750	0.1389	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3056
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	15.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	10.000	29.000	0.1705	0.2673	0.3068	0.1704	0.0341	0.1364	0.1136	0.3296

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.1508
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.5450
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.2245
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.3720
predicted_SLG	0.2330
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.1550	0.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.6120	3.5106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1510	0.1508	0.1509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.2490	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.5450	0.4847	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2250	0.2245	0.2247	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4600	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3720	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2330	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1150	1.0850	1.0984	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2717

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.407	4.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.250	-0.272	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.593	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.593	0.000	1.407	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	1.000	-0.037	-1.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.926	1.000	-0.926	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.015	0.150
predicted_R	0.519	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.519	0.000	0.481	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.250	-0.391	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.704	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	1.000	2.296	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.593	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.519	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	0.003
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.616	0.209
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	-0.208
predicted_H	0.865	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.385	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.687	-0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2703	0.3250	0.3514	0.2703	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.1622
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	16.000	19.000	0.2717	0.3853	0.3913	0.2717	0.0109	0.1196	0.1739	0.2065

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.2401
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2996
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.3312
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2280	0.2254	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0100	0.0219	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.7810	3.6160	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2401	0.2401	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5930	0.2200	0.3846	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9080	0.8648	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2996	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5190	0.2800	0.3854	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3900	0.3724	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3312	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.6740	0.6872	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.500	-0.214	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	0.622	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	2.000	-0.811	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.214	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.500	-0.088	-0.300
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.500	-0.314	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.946	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.946	2.000	1.054	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.214	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	0.946	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.009	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.150
predicted_H	0.754	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.214	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	-0.202
predicted_RBI	0.383	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.250	0.304

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	10.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.4546
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	15.000	0.1628	0.1628	0.1628	0.1628	0.0000	0.0698	0.0000	0.3488
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	30.000	5.000	3.000	19.000	21.000	14.000	35.000	0.2143	0.2885	0.3143	0.2143	0.0214	0.1357	0.1000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1700
predicted_AVG	0.1918
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2141
predicted_R	0.2200
predicted_RBI	0.4070
predicted_SLG	0.2328
predicted_SO	1.4690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0570	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	4.1700	4.0086	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1918	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.1200	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8000	0.7540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2140	0.2141	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.2200	0.3655	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4070	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2328	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9460	1.4690	1.2503	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2707

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	3.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.667	0.229	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.667	0.178	-0.167
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	1.000	0.389	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.667	0.329	0.083
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.761	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	-0.032
predicted_H	1.051	0.131
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.494	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.558	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3500	0.4103	0.3333	0.0000	0.1795	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	36.000	5.000	5.000	22.000	18.000	9.000	26.000	0.2707	0.3217	0.4211	0.2707	0.0376	0.1654	0.0677	0.1955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.3010
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	1.1470
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3376
predicted_R	0.4890
predicted_RBI	0.6080
predicted_SLG	0.3938
predicted_SO	0.6190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.2150	0.1828	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.8110	3.7615	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1950	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.1470	1.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3376	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4890	0.4937	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6080	0.5581	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3938	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.6190	0.6626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	4.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.021	0.250
predicted_BB	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.085	0.400
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_SO	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.590	1.000	0.410	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.590	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.366	-0.326
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.688	0.226
predicted_H	0.736	-0.024
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	0.479	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.184	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.464	-0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	0.2143	0.4211	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0000	0.3571	0.0714
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	3.000	0.2414	0.4250	0.3793	0.2414	0.0000	0.0690	0.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	39	-	144.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	18.000	23.000	0.2292	0.3152	0.3056	0.2292	0.0069	0.1042	0.1250	0.1597

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1340
predicted_AVG	0.2295
predicted_BB	0.8490
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3866
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.1790
predicted_SLG	0.3336
predicted_SO	0.3740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.2660	0.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.1340	3.3656	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2295	0.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.8490	0.6884	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7190	0.7360	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3866	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4910	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1790	0.1836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3336	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5900	0.3740	0.4636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.3410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3412

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.341	0.667	-0.341	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.160	2.000	-1.160	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.467	0.750	-0.267	-0.550
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.667	-0.424	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.760	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	0.560	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.682	0.282
predicted_AVG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.597	-0.163
predicted_H	1.207	0.147
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.252	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	0.560	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.328 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.4286	0.3810	0.0000	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.3590	0.4318	0.4103	0.3590	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	11.000	19.000	14.000	0.3412	0.4673	0.4235	0.3412	0.0118	0.0824	0.2235	0.1647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9050
predicted_AVG	0.3388
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_H	1.3230
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.4108
predicted_R	0.3750
predicted_RBI	0.2770
predicted_SLG	0.4154
predicted_SO	0.5600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1890	0.1762	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.9050	3.6815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7600	0.4680	0.5972	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.3230	1.2066	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4108	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.3750	0.4038	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2770	0.2518	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4154	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5600	0.5600	0.5600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.341

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	2.000	0.760	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.440	4.000	1.560	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.200	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.750	-0.021	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.760	3.000	0.240	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.200	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.750	-0.137	-0.550
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.520	2.000	0.480	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	2.640	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.395	1.250	0.005	-0.850
predicted_SO	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	0.000	-1.080	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.440	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.059
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.244	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.430	-0.010
predicted_H	0.719	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.279	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.157
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	0.978	-0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.4118	0.3846	0.2308	0.0000	0.0000	0.1538	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.2414	0.4054	0.3793	0.2414	0.0000	0.0345	0.1724	0.3103
season	0.20	25	-	86.000	19.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	13.000	11.000	27.000	0.2209	0.3366	0.3953	0.2209	0.0349	0.1047	0.1279	0.3140

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0850
predicted_AVG	0.2352
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.2790
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3742
predicted_R	0.8040
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.3872
predicted_SO	0.8960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.3460	0.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4400	3.0850	3.2436	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2352	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.4220	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7260	0.7189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2790	0.2790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.8040	0.6771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1660	0.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3872	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	0.8960	0.9782	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Bailey Ober (641927) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.875	2.000	-1.875	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	2.500	5.000	-1.500	-4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.500	6.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.287	5.000	-1.087	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	4.000	3.000	-3.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	12.000	23.000	11.000	25.000	4.000	3.6818	1.1591	0.4091	0.7841	0.3750	0.8523	0.1364
last_10	0.35	8	43.000	20.000	36.000	15.000	32.000	5.000	4.1860	1.1860	0.4651	0.8372	0.3488	0.7442	0.1163
season	0.20	8	43.000	20.000	36.000	15.000	32.000	5.000	4.1860	1.1860	0.4651	0.8372	0.3488	0.7442	0.1163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9940
predicted_ER	2.3670
predicted_ERA	3.9774
predicted_H	4.5770
predicted_HR	0.6930
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.6690
predicted_WHIP	1.2266

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.9940	0.9721	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.3670	1.6664	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9774	3.9774	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.5770	4.7938	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6930	0.8503	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.6690	2.7887	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2266	1.2266	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	23
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.19
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	641927
playerID	641927
playerName	Bailey Ober
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 21

All-history rows before 20260512: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.381	2.000	0.619	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	2.333	-3.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.095	4.000	1.905	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	1.457	1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	0.381	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7900
predicted_ER	1.5340
predicted_ERA	8.0171
predicted_H	2.2540
predicted_HR	0.4680
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5400
predicted_WHIP	1.7678

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7900	0.9164	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.5340	2.4167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.0171	8.0171	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	2.2540	2.7032	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4680	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5400	1.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7678	1.7678	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.176	0.000	-1.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.782	1.000	0.418	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	1.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	2.3824	1.4118	0.2647	1.1471	0.2647	0.7059
season	0.20	16	16.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.1020	0.3061	0.7959

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.5410
predicted_ERA	3.3271
predicted_H	1.5030
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3170
predicted_WHIP	1.3190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4270	0.1682	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5410	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3271	3.3271	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5030	0.5919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3170	1.7310	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3190	1.3190	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 9

All-history rows before 20260512: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	2.222	0.000	-2.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.667	1.000	-0.567	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	0.333	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.2273	0.9545	0.1364	0.6818	0.2727	0.6818	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577
season	0.20	9	17.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.6731	1.4423	0.5192	1.1539	0.2885	0.8654	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4880
predicted_ER	0.5630
predicted_ERA	3.5227
predicted_H	1.3060
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2560
predicted_WHIP	1.2478

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4880	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5630	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5227	3.5227	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3060	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2560	1.7025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2478	1.2478	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.67
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.647	3.000	-0.647	-3.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	0.047	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	3.9715
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9310
predicted_WHIP	1.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5300	0.2170	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4700	0.7830	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9715	3.9715	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9410	1.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9310	1.5624	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3820	1.3820	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

20260512_NYY@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5301359999999999, "home_win_probability": 0.46986400000000006, "away_win_probability": 0.5301359999999999, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence": 0.5301359999999999, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	NYY 5 - 4 BAL	NYY	0.530	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	NYY 5 - 4 BAL	NYY	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away NYY	5-5	0.500	5.70	3.70	20	4L	hot	average
Home BAL	4-6	0.400	3.70	6	-23	2W	average	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-11	NYY @ BAL	2 - 3	BAL	1	close
2026-05-04	BAL @ NYY	1 - 12	NYY	11	blowout
2026-05-03	BAL @ NYY	3 - 11	NYY	8	blowout
2026-05-02	BAL @ NYY	4 - 9	NYY	5	blowout
2026-05-01	BAL @ NYY	2 - 7	NYY	5	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target NYY	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target BAL	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized NYY	33	8	6	0	5	3	10
Player finalized BAL	33	8	5	0	3	2	9
Player model fractional NYY	31.83	7.43	4.74	1.38	4.38	3.99	8.56
Player model fractional BAL	32.28	6.87	4.21	0.83	3.71	3.77	8.59
Simulation box NYY	32	5	5	1	5	5	7
Simulation box BAL	35	8	4	0	4	3	11

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away NYY	Starter	Will Warren	3.20	0	5	3	2	3.83	1.22	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Fernando Cruz	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.73	1.42	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Brent Headrick	1	0	3	0	0	3.42	1.18	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Camilo Doval	1	0	0	0	0	4.49	1.29	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	Tim Hill	1	1	0	2	0	2.72	1.26	True
Away NYY	Middle Reliever	David Bednar	0.20	3	2	3	1	4.09	1.20	True
Home BAL	Starter	Trevor Rogers	3.10	2	4	3	3	5.17	1.46	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Andrew Kittredge	1.20	1	0	1	1	6.73	1.81	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Dietrich Enns	1	0	2	0	0	3.10	1.28	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Keegan Akin	1	1	1	0	0	4.09	1.26	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Rico Garcia	1	0	0	0	0	2.58	0.98	True
Home BAL	Middle Reliever	Yennier Cano	1	1	0	1	1	2.92	0.97	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: NYY

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	5.000	1.429	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.600	-0.240	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	3.000	-0.857	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.600	-0.333	-0.600
predicted_R	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.540	1.200	-0.540	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.071	-
predicted_AB	3.670	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.786	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.554	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.084	0.013
predicted_AB	3.720	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.397	-0.032
predicted_H	1.035	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.232	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.768	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.554	0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.7895	0.3684	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.5000	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	14	-	50.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	11.000	6.000	14.000	0.2400	0.3333	0.5400	0.2400	0.0600	0.1400	0.1200	0.2800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0960
predicted_AB	3.7700
predicted_AVG	0.2786
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.3464
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.5543
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1470	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0710	0.0960	0.0836	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6700	3.7700	3.7204	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2786	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.3650	0.3967	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0500	1.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2330	0.2315	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3464	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7860	0.7510	0.7683	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4970	0.4886	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5540	0.5543	0.5542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0090	1.0045	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3058

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.500	0.361	0.167
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	2.000	0.879	0.000
predicted_HR	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.500	0.336	0.250
predicted_R	0.879	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	2.000	-0.818	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.574	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.678	1.250	0.322	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.091	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	1.000	-1.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.330	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.879	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.574	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.748	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.242
predicted_H	0.941	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.339	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.735	-0.144
predicted_RBI	0.655	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.5789	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.6154	0.2821	0.1026	0.2051	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	37.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	29.000	22.000	36.000	0.3058	0.4138	0.6777	0.3058	0.0992	0.2231	0.1818	0.2975

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_AVG	0.2528
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.3460
predicted_OBP	0.2961
predicted_R	0.6290
predicted_RBI	0.6730
predicted_SLG	0.5743
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.1810	0.2199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8070	3.7479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2528	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.2480	0.4250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9630	0.9406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3300	0.3460	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8790	0.6290	0.7346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6730	0.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5740	0.5743	0.5742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0090	1.0436	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1828

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.321	4.000	0.679	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.317	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.607	0.000	1.393	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.202	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.260	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.269	0.000	0.481	0.750
predicted_SO	1.107	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.107	1.000	-1.107	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.321	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.202	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	1.107	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.424	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	-0.082
predicted_H	0.580	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.202	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.0000	0.2857
season	0.20	28	-	93.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	31.000	0.1828	0.2400	0.2688	0.1828	0.0215	0.0968	0.0753	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5070
predicted_AVG	0.1790
predicted_BB	0.1010
predicted_H	0.6280
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2020
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.4040
predicted_SLG	0.3266
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1040	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3210	3.5070	3.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1790	0.1790	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1010	0.1677	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6280	0.5797	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1360	0.1244	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2020	0.2020	0.2020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4010	0.3495	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4040	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3266	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1070	0.9890	1.0418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2847

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.075	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	2.000	-0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	-0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	2.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	0.000	-1.025	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.460	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.500	-0.144	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.575	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.575	1.000	-0.575	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.075	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.460	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	0.575	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.123	0.048
predicted_AB	3.492	-0.108
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000
predicted_BB	0.825	0.125
predicted_H	1.123	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.098	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.460	0.000
predicted_R	0.623	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.695	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.000
predicted_SO	0.556	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	0.3125	0.5000	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.3750	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	14.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	7.000	9.000	3.000	0.4118	0.5227	0.8235	0.4118	0.0588	0.3529	0.2647	0.0882
season	0.20	40	-	144.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	26.000	25.000	28.000	23.000	0.2847	0.3943	0.5000	0.2847	0.0347	0.1806	0.1944	0.1597

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.1560
predicted_AB	3.4160
predicted_AVG	0.3274
predicted_BB	0.9130
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.4603
predicted_R	0.6220
predicted_RBI	0.6920
predicted_SLG	0.5573
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1840	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0750	0.1560	0.1226	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.4160	3.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3274	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.9130	0.8253	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1180	1.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0960	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4600	0.4603	0.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6220	0.6232	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.6920	0.6953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5573	0.5572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5750	0.5420	0.5556	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Amed Rosario (642708) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2742

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.263	3.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.274	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	-0.895	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.667	-0.516	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.263	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.049
predicted_3B	0.032	-0.021
predicted_AB	3.408	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	0.021
predicted_H	0.874	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.109	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.528	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.158

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2727	0.3421	0.4848	0.2727	0.0606	0.2424	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.20	19	-	62.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	13.000	9.000	6.000	13.000	0.2742	0.3333	0.5161	0.2742	0.0645	0.2097	0.0968	0.2097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5400
predicted_AVG	0.2659
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_OBP	0.3323
predicted_R	0.5780
predicted_RBI	0.5080
predicted_SLG	0.4144
predicted_SO	0.9860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1470	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0120	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2630	3.5400	3.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2659	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3560	0.3369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9410	0.8736	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1180	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3323	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.5780	0.5283	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5080	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4144	0.4142	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.9860	0.8416	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	642708
playerID	642708
playerName	Amed Rosario
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1707

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	3.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.706	1.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.250	-0.052	0.000
predicted_R	0.647	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	-0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	0.000	0.265	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.706	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.060
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.706	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	-0.141
predicted_H	0.769	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.664	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	6.000	0.2368	0.3182	0.4474	0.2368	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316	0.1579
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	22.000	24.000	25.000	0.1707	0.3020	0.3089	0.1707	0.0244	0.1463	0.1951	0.2032

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2790
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7700
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3012
predicted_R	0.6770
predicted_RBI	0.5960
predicted_SLG	0.3465
predicted_SO	0.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.2790	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0163	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.7700	3.7060	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7060	0.4630	0.5653	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8190	0.7689	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0581	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.6770	0.6644	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5960	0.5598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3465	0.3463	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.8150	0.7813	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.250	-0.267	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.762	0.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.250	-0.152	0.000
predicted_R	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.633	0.500	-0.633	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.286	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	1.000	-0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.762	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.833	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.537	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.602	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.758	-0.004
predicted_H	0.895	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.277	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.380	-0.000
predicted_R	0.655	-0.178
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.537	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.381	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	9.000	16.000	0.2778	0.4222	0.6667	0.2778	0.1111	0.2500	0.2500	0.4444
season	0.20	42	-	150.000	40.000	7.000	16.000	30.000	35.000	32.000	54.000	0.2667	0.4022	0.6333	0.2667	0.1067	0.2000	0.2133	0.3600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.2497
predicted_BB	0.7550
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2820
predicted_OBP	0.3797
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.6160
predicted_SLG	0.5368
predicted_SO	1.4460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1920	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6230	3.6017	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2497	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7620	0.7550	0.7579	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9050	0.8948	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2820	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3797	0.3798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8330	0.5310	0.6546	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6160	0.6095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5370	0.5368	0.5369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.4460	1.3805	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.065	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.065	3.000	0.935	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.581	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	-0.581	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	-0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	-0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.806	0.000	1.194	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.146	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.226	-
predicted_R	0.323	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.220	-
predicted_SO	0.806	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.159	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.146	0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.138
predicted_H	0.423	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.226	0.000
predicted_R	0.299	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.126	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.220	0.000
predicted_SO	0.946	0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.0667	0.1250	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2500	0.2500	0.1562	0.0312	0.0312	0.1250	0.3438
season	0.20	31	-	95.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	18.000	25.000	0.1789	0.3070	0.2842	0.1789	0.0316	0.0526	0.1895	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0370
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2320
predicted_AVG	0.1463
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.4730
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2261
predicted_R	0.2810
predicted_RBI	0.1390
predicted_SLG	0.2203
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.0370	0.0348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0650	3.2320	3.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1460	0.1463	0.1462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.3360	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.4730	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0660	0.0590	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2260	0.2261	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3230	0.2810	0.2994	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1390	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8060	1.0550	0.9459	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Max Schuemann (680474) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	3.500	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.428	1.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.667	0.429	0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.428	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.799	-0.201
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.575	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.070
predicted_H	0.796	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.120	0.120
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	2	-	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2521
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3019
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.4790
predicted_SLG	0.4282
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.3460	0.7989	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7430	3.5747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2521	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.0698	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9440	0.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3019	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3910	0.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4790	0.4035	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4280	0.4282	0.4281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8850	0.9646	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680474
playerID	680474
playerName	Max Schuemann
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Will Warren (701542) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.375	3.000	0.625	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	6.000	-2.000	-6.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.875	7.000	-1.875	-4.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.975	4.000	-1.775	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	6.625	7.000	-1.625	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	11.000	25.000	6.000	39.000	4.000	3.6667	1.1481	0.4074	0.9259	0.2222	1.4444	0.1482
last_10	0.35	8	41.200	16.000	39.000	11.000	53.000	6.000	3.4560	1.2000	0.3840	0.9360	0.2640	1.2720	0.1440
season	0.20	8	41.200	16.000	39.000	11.000	53.000	6.000	3.4560	1.2000	0.3840	0.9360	0.2640	1.2720	0.1440

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3680
predicted_ER	1.9960
predicted_ERA	3.8281
predicted_H	4.3790
predicted_HR	0.6560
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.7410
predicted_WHIP	1.2248

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3680	1.6919	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.9960	0.9731	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8281	3.8281	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3790	3.6723	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6560	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.7410	5.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2248	1.2248	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.46
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	701542
playerID	701542
playerName	Will Warren
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.537	1.100	0.663	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	3.000	-0.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	11.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	4.1538	1.8462	0.4615	1.2692	0.5769	1.7308	0.2308
season	0.20	19	15.100	5.000	13.000	11.000	23.000	2.000	2.9348	1.5652	0.3261	0.8478	0.7174	1.5000	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6200
predicted_ER	0.5760
predicted_ERA	3.7322
predicted_H	1.3520
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5210
predicted_WHIP	1.4200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6200	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5760	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7322	3.7322	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3520	0.5240	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5210	1.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4200	1.4200	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 22

All-history rows before 20260512: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.909	2.000	-0.909	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.805	0.200	0.195	0.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.045	1.000	1.955	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	8.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	2.3824	0.9706	0.2647	0.7059	0.2647	0.9706	0.1765
season	0.20	22	21.200	5.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	2.000	2.0769	1.2923	0.2308	0.9231	0.3692	1.0615	0.0923

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_ER	0.4070
predicted_ERA	3.4229
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0700
predicted_WHIP	1.1838

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3720	0.1574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4070	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4229	3.4229	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8940	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1840	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0700	2.1835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1838	1.1838	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Camilo Doval (666808) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.728	1.000	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	-0.944	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	9.000	2.000	11.000	3.000	5.5862	1.1379	0.6207	0.9310	0.2069	1.1379	0.3103
season	0.20	18	15.200	10.000	15.000	3.000	17.000	3.000	5.7447	1.1489	0.6383	0.9575	0.1915	1.0851	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_ER	0.4990
predicted_ERA	4.4930
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.2942

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3170	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4990	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4930	4.4930	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9770	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9860	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2942	1.2942	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	666808
playerID	666808
playerName	Camilo Doval
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.632	1.000	1.368	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	1.000	0.247	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.0800	1.0800	0.1200	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.1200
season	0.20	19	17.100	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0385	0.8077	0.1154	0.6923	0.1154	0.4038	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.7217
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7580
predicted_WHIP	1.2564

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2560	0.1024	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2880	0.7153	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7217	2.7217	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9400	1.5761	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7580	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2564	1.2564	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.412	1.000	2.588	2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.118	1.000	1.882	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.918	0.200	-0.718	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	2.000	0.765	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.9375	0.0000	1.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	1.000	2.6129	0.8710	0.2903	0.7742	0.0968	1.2581	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.000	7.000	19.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7059	1.4118	0.4118	1.1177	0.2941	1.2353	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_ER	0.3640
predicted_ERA	4.0889
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8710
predicted_WHIP	1.1952

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2120	0.6865	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3640	1.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0889	4.0889	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.7450	2.1027	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8710	1.5508	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1952	1.1952	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: BAL

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0990

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.345	4.000	-0.345	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.500	-0.247	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.828	2.000	-0.828	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.500	-0.077	-0.250
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	-0.448	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.487	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.750	-0.381	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.862	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	0.000	1.138	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.345	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.414	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.487	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.381	0.140
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.293	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	0.101
predicted_H	0.949	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.496	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.487	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.4000	0.5263	0.6667	0.4000	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	0.2581	0.3784	0.3871	0.2581	0.0000	0.1290	0.1935	0.3226
season	0.20	29	-	97.000	24.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	13.000	12.000	25.000	0.2474	0.3273	0.3814	0.2474	0.0206	0.1134	0.1237	0.2577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4920
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2530
predicted_AVG	0.3036
predicted_BB	0.5950
predicted_H	0.9880
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.4071
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.4867
predicted_SO	0.8070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.4920	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3450	3.2530	3.2935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3036	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4140	0.5950	0.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9880	0.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.5330	0.4956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4130	0.3985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4870	0.4867	0.4868	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.8070	0.8312	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.172	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	1.000	0.828
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034
predicted_AB	3.759	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.759	4.000	0.241
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	-0.007
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	0.000	-0.345
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.966	1.000	0.034
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	-0.069
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	0.517
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	-0.448
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.459	0.500	0.041
predicted_SO	1.034	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.034	2.000	0.966

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.759	-
predicted_AVG	0.332	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.552	-
predicted_SO	1.034	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.296	0.124
predicted_3B	0.076	0.042
predicted_AB	3.810	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.332	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.074
predicted_H	1.218	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.552	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.000
predicted_SO	0.991	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.4211	0.4500	0.6842	0.4210	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	0.3250	0.3415	0.5500	0.3250	0.0250	0.1500	0.0250	0.3000
season	0.20	29	-	109.000	28.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	14.000	10.000	30.000	0.2569	0.3193	0.4587	0.2569	0.0459	0.1193	0.0917	0.2752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3910
predicted_3B	0.1080
predicted_AB	3.8490
predicted_AVG	0.3324
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.2790
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3697
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.6220
predicted_SLG	0.5524
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.3910	0.2957	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.1080	0.0758	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7590	3.8490	3.8098	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3320	0.3324	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.2140	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2790	1.2185	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0756	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.6050	0.5519	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6220	0.5950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5520	0.5524	0.5522	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0340	0.9580	0.9911	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Jeremiah Jackson (669236) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2480

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.333	-0.248	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.088	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.912	1.000	-0.912	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.333	-0.269	-0.333
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.333	-0.416	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.824	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	0.000	1.176	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.088	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.287	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.677	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	0.046
predicted_H	0.679	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.000
predicted_R	0.220	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.287	0.000
predicted_SO	0.818	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1892	0.2105	0.2973	0.1892	0.0270	0.1351	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	31.000	3.000	6.000	24.000	10.000	3.000	28.000	0.2480	0.2692	0.4160	0.2480	0.0480	0.1920	0.0240	0.2240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.2009
predicted_BB	0.1690
predicted_H	0.7390
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.2379
predicted_R	0.1650
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.2871
predicted_SO	0.8140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0880	0.0750	0.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	3.6780	3.6771	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2009	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0880	0.1690	0.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7390	0.6793	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0790	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2379	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.1650	0.2204	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3420	0.3154	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2870	0.2871	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	0.8140	0.8183	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669236
playerID	669236
playerName	Jeremiah Jackson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2102

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.738	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.738	3.000	0.262	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.540	0.750
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	2.214	3.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.443	0.750
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	0.323	0.750
predicted_SO	1.024	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.024	0.000	-1.024	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.738	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	1.024	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.786	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	-0.184
predicted_H	0.670	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.209	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.534	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.955	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.5385	0.2308	0.0769	0.2051	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	42	-	157.000	33.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	27.000	21.000	43.000	0.2102	0.3073	0.4268	0.2102	0.0510	0.1401	0.1338	0.2739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8190
predicted_AVG	0.1808
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2160
predicted_OBP	0.2175
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.5500
predicted_SLG	0.3926
predicted_SO	0.9060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1560	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7380	3.8190	3.7857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1808	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.1870	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6910	0.6701	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2160	0.2094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2175	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.4960	0.5564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5500	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3926	0.3928	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0240	0.9060	0.9545	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.512	3.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.099	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.902	0.000	-0.902	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.250	-0.222	-0.050
predicted_R	0.634	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.805	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.805	0.000	-0.805	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.512	-
predicted_AVG	0.099	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.340	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.139	-
predicted_SO	0.805	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.147
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.263	-0.249
predicted_AVG	0.099	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.138	0.138
predicted_H	0.320	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.357	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.138	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.139	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.990	0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.091 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	14.000	12.000	0.0690	0.3721	0.0690	0.0690	0.0000	0.0345	0.4828	0.4138
season	0.20	41	-	144.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	26.000	41.000	33.000	0.2569	0.4225	0.3681	0.2569	0.0069	0.0833	0.2847	0.2292

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0910
predicted_AVG	0.0988
predicted_BB	1.2330
predicted_H	0.3060
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3566
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.1300
predicted_SLG	0.1388
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3170	0.0680	0.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5120	3.0910	3.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0990	0.0988	0.0989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2330	1.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3400	0.3060	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3566	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.4940	0.5512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1300	0.1382	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1390	0.1388	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8050	1.1180	0.9902	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.000	-0.178	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.333	-0.339	-0.333
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.867	2.000	2.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	0.867	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.026	0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.070	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.610	0.010
predicted_H	0.497	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.582	-0.085
predicted_RBI	0.281	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.162 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.0769	0.2941	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.3077	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	0.1724	0.3514	0.1724	0.1724	0.0000	0.0690	0.2414	0.2759
season	0.20	15	-	45.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	9.000	13.000	0.1778	0.3393	0.2444	0.1778	0.0222	0.1111	0.2000	0.2889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1390
predicted_AVG	0.1702
predicted_BB	0.6190
predicted_H	0.5340
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3171
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.2314
predicted_SO	0.8450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0520	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1390	3.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1702	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.6190	0.6096	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5340	0.4972	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3171	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.4970	0.5816	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3020	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8670	0.8450	0.8559	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 24

All-history rows before 20260512: 24

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2872

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.917	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	4.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.250	0.213	0.250
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	1.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	0.157	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.792	0.000	2.208	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.513	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.532	0.250	0.468	0.750
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.513	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.361	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.892	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	0.007
predicted_H	1.044	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.572	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.623	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.513	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.917

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6316	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2250	0.2791	0.4500	0.2250	0.0500	0.1750	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	24	-	94.000	27.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	12.000	7.000	16.000	0.2872	0.3431	0.5319	0.2872	0.0532	0.2021	0.0745	0.1702

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.2706
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.3402
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	0.6260
predicted_SLG	0.5133
predicted_SO	0.8640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3840	0.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9170	3.8720	3.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2706	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.3040	0.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.0480	1.0444	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1830	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3402	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6300	0.5720	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6260	0.6233	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5130	0.5133	0.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8640	0.7761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.290	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.290	2.000	0.710	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.500	-0.167	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.290	1.000	-0.290	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.234	0.667	-0.234	-0.667
predicted_R	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.323	1.000	-0.323	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	3.000	-0.452	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.314	2.000	-0.314	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.129	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.129	1.000	-0.129	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.290	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.323	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.349	-
predicted_SO	1.129	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.209	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.191	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.049
predicted_H	0.565	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.241	-0.000
predicted_R	0.339	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.349	0.000
predicted_SO	1.182	0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143	0.0714	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.1333	0.1613	0.2333	0.1333	0.0333	0.1000	0.0333	0.4000
season	0.20	31	-	102.000	17.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	9.000	35.000	0.1667	0.2342	0.3137	0.1667	0.0392	0.1373	0.0882	0.3431

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1450
predicted_AVG	0.1909
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.2408
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.3495
predicted_SO	1.2240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0460	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2900	3.1450	3.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1909	0.1909	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2900	0.2020	0.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6000	0.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1490	0.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2408	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3230	0.3520	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4770	0.4475	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3490	0.3495	0.3493	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1290	1.2240	1.1822	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2057

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.268	4.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.294	0.500
predicted_BB	0.317	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.317	0.000	0.683	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	0.000	1.122	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.000	0.337	0.600
predicted_R	0.561	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.561	0.000	0.439	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.298	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	0.339	0.750
predicted_SO	1.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.390	1.000	-0.390	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.317	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.298	-
predicted_SO	1.390	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.280	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	-0.067
predicted_H	0.927	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.347	-0.214
predicted_RBI	0.380	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.192	-0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.212 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.370

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	0.1818	0.2000	0.2045	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0227	0.2954
season	0.20	41	-	175.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	21.000	23.000	13.000	57.000	0.2057	0.2632	0.4114	0.2057	0.0514	0.1200	0.0743	0.3257

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.2180
predicted_AVG	0.2163
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.2536
predicted_R	0.1990
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.2977
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1630	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0133	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3700	4.2180	4.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3170	0.2040	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9120	0.9275	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0560	0.0576	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2536	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.1990	0.3466	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3730	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2980	0.2977	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3900	1.0550	1.1916	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Trevor Rogers (669432) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.667	2.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.667	3.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	5.667	4.000	-2.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.900	1.200	-1.800	1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.500	2.000	-0.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	16.000	31.000	6.000	22.000	3.000	6.1714	1.5857	0.6857	1.3286	0.2571	0.9429	0.1286
last_10	0.35	6	30.100	16.000	34.000	10.000	27.000	3.000	4.7473	1.4505	0.5275	1.1209	0.3297	0.8901	0.0989
season	0.20	6	30.100	16.000	34.000	10.000	27.000	3.000	4.7473	1.4505	0.5275	1.1209	0.3297	0.8901	0.0989

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3020
predicted_ER	2.3460
predicted_ERA	5.1680
predicted_H	4.6440
predicted_HR	0.5160
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.8640
predicted_WHIP	1.4555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.3020	2.2224	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3460	2.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1680	5.1680	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.6440	3.7529	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5160	0.7783	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.8640	3.9377	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4555	1.4555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	62
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	38
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260425_BOS@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669432
playerID	669432
playerName	Trevor Rogers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.857	2.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	1.000	0.557	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	19.6364	4.3636	2.1818	3.5455	0.8182	1.6364	0.2727
last_10	0.35	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765
season	0.20	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6660
predicted_ER	1.1090
predicted_ERA	6.7312
predicted_H	2.0230
predicted_HR	0.2230
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5790
predicted_WHIP	1.8134

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6660	0.8981	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.1090	1.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7312	6.7312	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	2.0230	1.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2230	0.0681	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5790	0.4819	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8134	1.8134	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	12.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.100	1.200	-0.100	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.375	1.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.0000	1.1053	0.0000	0.7895	0.3158	0.6316
last_10	0.35	8	10.200	2.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.6562	0.6562	1.0312
season	0.20	8	10.200	2.000	7.000	7.000	11.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.6562	0.6562	1.0312

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	3.1048
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9880
predicted_WHIP	1.2764

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4330	0.1530	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1048	3.1048	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9700	0.3427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9880	1.6424	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2764	1.2764	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.571	0.000	-1.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	7	6.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	9.4500	1.6500	1.0500	1.6500	1.0500	0.3000
season	0.20	7	6.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	9.4500	1.6500	1.0500	1.6500	1.0500	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_ER	0.4550
predicted_ERA	4.0931
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9460
predicted_WHIP	1.2633

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3010	0.0951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4550	0.8278	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0931	4.0931	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9620	0.3040	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0477	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9460	0.9829	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2633	1.2633	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	1.000	0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.100	2.000	-1.100	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.0000	0.5625	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	20	19.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	0.4737	0.4211	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684	1.1579	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_ER	0.2870
predicted_ERA	2.5802
predicted_H	0.5570
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1000
predicted_WHIP	0.9814

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4250	0.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2870	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5802	2.5802	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5570	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1000	0.4503	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9814	0.9814	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.47
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_NYY@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.056	0.000	0.944	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.622	2.000	0.378	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0385	0.4615	0.1154	0.3462	0.1154	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	18	14.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5000	0.1429	0.4286	0.0714	0.7857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.3160
predicted_ERA	2.9160
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7710
predicted_WHIP	0.9723

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2580	0.7191	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3160	0.7410	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9160	2.9160	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6910	0.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7710	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9723	0.9723	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260512_PHI@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "PHI 3 - 5 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	PHI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	PHI 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away PHI	7-3	0.700	5.20	3.90	13	2W	hot	average
Home BOS	5-5	0.500	3.40	3.70	-3	1L	cold	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target PHI	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target BOS	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized PHI	35	10	5	1	5	1	9
Player finalized BOS	34	9	1	0	3	1	8
Player model fractional PHI	33.87	9.34	4.97	1.78	4.87	2.79	7.11
Player model fractional BOS	33.27	7.41	3.62	0.92	3.36	2.61	7.46
Simulation box PHI	32	5	3	1	3	0	7
Simulation box BOS	34	10	5	1	5	4	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away PHI	Starter	Zack Wheeler	2	2	1	5	2	3.79	1.19	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Brad Keller	1.10	0	0	2	1	4.35	1.45	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	José Alvarado	1	1	0	1	0	3.25	1.50	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Orion Kerkering	1	1	1	2	0	2.76	1.07	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Jhoan Duran	0.20	0	1	0	0	3.54	1.27	True
Away PHI	Middle Reliever	Tanner Banks	0.10	1	0	0	0	4.55	1.56	True
Away PHI	Reliever	Chase Shugart	-	-	-	-	-	3.54	1.18	-
Home BOS	Starter	Jovani Morán	3.10	3	3	4	0	3.83	1.32	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Aroldis Chapman	1.20	0	0	0	0	2.95	1.10	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Garrett Whitlock	1	0	1	1	0	4.31	1.29	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Greg Weissert	1	0	2	0	0	4.36	1.40	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Tyler Samaniego	1	0	1	0	0	2.67	1.19	True
Home BOS	Middle Reliever	Zack Kelly	1	0	0	0	0	3.91	1.48	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: PHI

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2087

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	1.000	-0.161	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.250	-0.209	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	1.000	-0.774	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.260	0.250	-0.260	-0.250
predicted_R	0.387	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.387	1.000	-0.387	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.226	1.000	-0.226	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.500	-0.365	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.677	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.677	0.000	-0.677	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.065	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.387	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.677	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.113
predicted_3B	0.035	-0.030
predicted_AB	3.721	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	-0.003
predicted_H	0.818	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	0.146
predicted_RBI	0.701	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.652	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.5278	0.1944	0.0833	0.2778	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	24.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	7.000	21.000	0.2087	0.2602	0.3652	0.2087	0.0261	0.1217	0.0609	0.1826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3610
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.2314
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	0.8630
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.2769
predicted_R	0.6450
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.4941
predicted_SO	0.6330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.3610	0.2744	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0650	0.0130	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7290	3.7208	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.2200	0.2226	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8630	0.8184	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1970	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2769	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3870	0.6450	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7390	0.7005	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4941	0.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6770	0.6330	0.6520	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.3540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	4.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.444	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.354	1.000	-0.354	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.560	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.353	4.000	-1.353	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.379	1.000	-0.379	-1.000
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	1.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.567	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.508	1.000	-0.508	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.765	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	0.000	1.235	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.444	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	1.560	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.475	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.567	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.077	0.048
predicted_AB	3.770	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.444	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	0.081
predicted_H	1.615	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.038	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.475	0.000
predicted_R	0.736	0.118
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.567	0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	-0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.422 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.5556	0.5714	0.6667	0.5556	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	8.000	0.4737	0.5116	0.5789	0.4737	0.0000	0.1053	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	46.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	21.000	6.000	26.000	0.3538	0.3786	0.5077	0.3538	0.0308	0.1615	0.0461	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.1120
predicted_AB	3.7300
predicted_AVG	0.4438
predicted_BB	0.3160
predicted_H	1.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0380
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.4755
predicted_R	0.8230
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.5672
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1160	0.1415	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1120	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.7300	3.7699	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4440	0.4438	0.4439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.3160	0.2566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5600	1.6550	1.6147	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0380	0.0380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4750	0.4755	0.4753	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.8230	0.7360	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5250	0.5101	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5670	0.5672	0.5671	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7280	0.7437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.354

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	4.000	0.244	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.750	0.023	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.634	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.634	0.000	-0.634	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.854	3.000	0.146	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.390	2.000	0.610	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.750	-0.103	-0.500
predicted_R	0.683	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.683	2.000	0.317	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	2.000	1.341	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.597	2.250	0.403	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.439	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.439	0.000	-0.439	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.634	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.530	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.683	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.762	-
predicted_SO	1.439	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.010
predicted_AB	4.003	0.248
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.199
predicted_H	1.130	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.575	0.045
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.873	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.762	0.000
predicted_SO	1.504	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.144

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.3636	0.3913	1.0909	0.3636	0.2273	0.3182	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	19.000	0.2326	0.2667	0.6047	0.2326	0.1163	0.1628	0.0465	0.4419
season	0.20	41	-	154.000	35.000	7.000	1.000	16.000	27.000	28.000	26.000	59.000	0.2273	0.3533	0.5974	0.2273	0.1039	0.1753	0.1688	0.3831

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1750
predicted_AVG	0.2840
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.6060
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.8510
predicted_RBI	0.9170
predicted_SLG	0.7621
predicted_SO	1.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1630	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0070	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	4.1750	4.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2840	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6340	0.2970	0.4349	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1860	1.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5300	0.6060	0.5749	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3353	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6830	0.8510	0.7822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.9170	0.8732	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7620	0.7621	0.7621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4390	1.5490	1.5040	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	9
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2808

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	4.000	0.350	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.575	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	1.000	-1.025	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.250	-0.376	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.715	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.562	1.000	-0.562	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	1.000	0.350	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.575	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.419	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.715	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.598	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	0.034
predicted_H	1.137	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.418	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.419	0.000
predicted_R	0.797	0.172
predicted_RBI	0.636	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.715	0.000
predicted_SO	0.519	-0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.115

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.8824	0.3529	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	6.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.7500	0.3333	0.1111	0.1389	0.1667	0.1111
season	0.20	40	-	146.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	24.000	25.000	23.000	26.000	0.2808	0.3765	0.5616	0.2808	0.0685	0.1644	0.1575	0.1781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.3185
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.4170
predicted_OBP	0.4195
predicted_R	0.9180
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.7153
predicted_SO	0.4260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.1510	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.5620	3.5984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3185	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5750	0.6330	0.6090	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1350	1.1371	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4170	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4190	0.4195	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.9180	0.7969	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6340	0.6365	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7150	0.7153	0.7152	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.4260	0.5186	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.394	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.394	2.000	-0.394	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.048	0.333
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	1.000	-0.303	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	0.000	0.030	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.333	-0.022	0.000
predicted_R	0.303	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	-0.077	0.333
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.394	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.396	-
predicted_R	0.303	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.049	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.416	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.020
predicted_H	1.049	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.396	0.000
predicted_R	0.343	0.040
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	0.797	0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3750	0.4444	0.6250	0.3750	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.3714	0.4211	0.5714	0.3714	0.0286	0.1714	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.20	33	-	112.000	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	24.000	0.2857	0.3548	0.4107	0.2857	0.0089	0.0804	0.0893	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.3341
predicted_BB	0.3380
predicted_H	1.1470
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3964
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.5305
predicted_SO	0.8510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.1990	0.2046	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0400	0.0491	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3940	3.4330	3.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3341	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3380	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.1470	1.0489	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3960	0.3964	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3030	0.3740	0.3433	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4490	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5305	0.5303	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8510	0.7974	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 23

All-history rows before 20260512: 23

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2469

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2470

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.522	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.522	4.000	-0.522	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.000	-0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.870	0.000	-0.870	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.522	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.565	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.044
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.709	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.158	-0.059
predicted_H	0.832	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.370	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.436	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.491	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3333	0.2381	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2162	0.2162	0.2703	0.2162	0.0000	0.1081	0.0000	0.0541
season	0.20	23	-	81.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2469	0.3034	0.3333	0.2469	0.0123	0.0988	0.0617	0.1605

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2540
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8670
predicted_AVG	0.2352
predicted_BB	0.1090
predicted_H	0.9100
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.2592
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.3323
predicted_SO	0.4290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.2540	0.2175	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5220	3.8670	3.7095	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2352	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.1090	0.1583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9100	0.8324	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2592	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.3890	0.3703	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4740	0.4357	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3323	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5650	0.4290	0.4911	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2395

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.300	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.175	3.000	-0.175	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.000	-0.039	0.250
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.103	0.250
predicted_SO	0.925	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.925	1.000	1.075	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.925	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.286	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	-0.119
predicted_H	0.936	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000
predicted_R	0.468	-0.132
predicted_RBI	0.268	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.300

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.2273	0.2273	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	12.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.2727
season	0.20	40	-	167.000	40.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	24.000	12.000	37.000	0.2395	0.2889	0.3533	0.2395	0.0239	0.0778	0.0719	0.2216

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.2760
predicted_AVG	0.2182
predicted_BB	0.0980
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2354
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.2728
predicted_SO	1.0240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1180	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3000	4.2760	4.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2182	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.0980	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9330	0.9359	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2354	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.3760	0.4679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2660	0.2676	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9250	1.0240	0.9834	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2345

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	0.282	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.016	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	0.000	0.128	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	-0.052	0.250
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	-0.102	0.250
predicted_SO	1.051	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.051	1.000	-1.051	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	1.051	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.003
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.820	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.277	-0.056
predicted_H	0.931	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.192
predicted_RBI	0.253	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.996	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2564	0.2857	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.0513	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	41.000	0.2345	0.3025	0.3517	0.2345	0.0207	0.0828	0.0897	0.2828

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2484
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2917
predicted_R	0.6880
predicted_RBI	0.2630
predicted_SLG	0.3979
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1590	0.1569	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8920	3.8196	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2484	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2370	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9670	0.9308	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2917	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.6880	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2630	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3979	0.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0510	0.9570	0.9961	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.333	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	1.000	-0.306	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.083	-0.167
predicted_R	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.333	0.386	0.333
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.278	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.543	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.551	-0.116
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.020
predicted_H	0.894	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.238	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.115
predicted_RBI	0.785	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.543	0.000
predicted_SO	0.424	-0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.7500	0.3125	0.1250	0.3125	0.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5143	0.2857	0.0571	0.2571	0.0857	0.0857
season	0.20	36	-	132.000	24.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	10.000	11.000	21.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2803	0.1818	0.0227	0.1515	0.0833	0.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2715
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2510
predicted_OBP	0.3356
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.8250
predicted_SLG	0.5434
predicted_SO	0.3090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1840	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.4660	3.5507	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2715	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.3400	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9410	0.8942	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2510	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3356	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2780	0.4770	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8250	0.7850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5430	0.5434	0.5432	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.3090	0.4244	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Zack Wheeler (554430) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 3

All-history rows before 20260512: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	3.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	3.667	5.000	1.333	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.700	6.100	-3.700	-4.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	6.000	4.000	-5.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	17.100	6.000	11.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.1154	0.9808	0.3462	0.6346	0.3462	1.0385	0.0577
last_10	0.35	3	17.100	6.000	11.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.1154	0.9808	0.3462	0.6346	0.3462	1.0385	0.0577
season	0.20	3	17.100	6.000	11.000	6.000	18.000	1.000	3.1154	0.9808	0.3462	0.6346	0.3462	1.0385	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2420
predicted_ER	1.4210
predicted_ERA	3.7894
predicted_H	2.7860
predicted_HR	0.3440
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.3350
predicted_WHIP	1.1934

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2420	1.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.4210	1.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7894	3.7894	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	2.7860	4.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3440	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	3.1000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	3.3350	1.9012	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1934	1.1934	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	13
Pitches	51

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	554430
playerID	554430
playerName	Zack Wheeler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.941	3.000	1.059	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	1.000	0.188	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-1.059	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	8.000	16.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	4.3200	1.3200	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_ER	0.5810
predicted_ERA	4.3547
predicted_H	1.2280
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3470
predicted_WHIP	1.4461

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5080	0.8052	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5810	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3547	4.3547	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2280	1.6944	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0479	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3470	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4461	1.4461	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-0.056	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.572	1.000	0.428	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	1.9091	0.0000	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	1.0800	1.6800	0.1200	1.2000	0.4800	1.3200
season	0.20	18	13.100	8.000	19.000	7.000	18.000	5.4000	1.9500	0.6000	1.4250	0.5250	1.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_ER	0.3190
predicted_ERA	3.2458
predicted_H	0.9470
predicted_HR	0.0740
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0410
predicted_WHIP	1.4999

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3790	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3190	0.7454	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2458	3.2458	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9470	0.9802	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0740	0.0277	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0410	0.3892	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4999	1.4999	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.150	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000	0.4615	0.4615	0.8077	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0667	0.2000	0.6667	0.4000	0.7333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.3070
predicted_ERA	2.7615
predicted_H	0.7380
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8770
predicted_WHIP	1.0667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3070	0.7330	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7615	2.7615	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7380	1.5137	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0850	0.6474	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8770	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0667	1.0667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.836	1.000	-0.636	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.273	2.000	-0.273	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	1.8621	1.0345	0.2069	0.7241	0.3103	1.4483
season	0.20	10	9.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	1.8621	1.0345	0.2069	0.7241	0.3103	1.4483

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3090
predicted_ER	0.2980
predicted_ERA	3.5366
predicted_H	0.6530
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8250
predicted_WHIP	1.2673

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3090	0.1066	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2980	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5366	3.5366	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6530	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8250	0.9397	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2673	1.2673	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tanner Banks (621383) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.625	0.000	-1.625	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	2.000	-0.869	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	3.000	-1.312	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	4.0500	1.5000	0.4500	1.2000	0.3000	1.3500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	18.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	6.5455	2.4545	0.7273	1.6364	0.8182	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	15	16.200	9.000	23.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	4.8600	1.9200	0.5400	1.3800	0.5400	1.2600	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	4.5492
predicted_H	0.7370
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7310
predicted_WHIP	1.5590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2900	0.1148	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3330	0.7359	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5492	4.5492	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7370	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7310	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5590	1.5590	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.94
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621383
playerID	621383
playerName	Tanner Banks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Chase Shugart (663767) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	1.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	-	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_H	-	0.000	-	Pitching_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_IP	-	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.000	0.217	0.200
predicted_SO	-	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	3.000	-0.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.0000	0.8333	0.3333	0.6667	0.1667	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	8.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	1.6875	0.9375	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	12	13.200	3.000	11.000	3.000	14.000	2.000	1.9756	1.0244	0.2195	0.8049	0.2195	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_ER	0.2440
predicted_ERA	3.5396
predicted_H	0.5360
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6240
predicted_WHIP	1.1756

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1940	0.0730	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2440	0.0918	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5396	3.5396	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5360	0.2017	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6240	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1756	1.1756	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.98
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	663767
playerID	663767
playerName	Chase Shugart
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Home Team: BOS

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2945

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	0.974	1.000
predicted_AB	3.744	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	4.000	1.256	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.105	0.400
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.103	0.000	0.897	2.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.000	0.023	0.400
predicted_R	0.487	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.487	0.000	0.513	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.473	0.000	0.327	0.800
predicted_SO	0.821	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	1.000	1.179	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.487	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.674	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	0.070
predicted_H	1.012	-0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.259	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.497	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.534	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.896	0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3636	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	0.2857	0.4222	0.4571	0.2857	0.0571	0.1429	0.2571	0.2857
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	43.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	20.000	32.000	0.2945	0.3772	0.4726	0.2945	0.0411	0.1233	0.1370	0.2192

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.6330
predicted_H	1.0070
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2580
predicted_OBP	0.3745
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.5290
predicted_SLG	0.5090
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0510	0.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.6250	3.6743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.6330	0.5833	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0070	1.0124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2580	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3745	0.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4870	0.5050	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5290	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5090	0.5090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.9500	0.8965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.267	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.267	3.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.250	-0.041	0.000
predicted_R	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.267	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.233	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.433	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.318	0.018
predicted_H	0.678	0.078
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.026	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.246	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3077	0.2286	0.2286	0.0000	0.0571	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.20	30	-	98.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.2143	0.2909	0.2959	0.2143	0.0102	0.0816	0.0918	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.2078
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2842
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.2670
predicted_SLG	0.2529
predicted_SO	0.8940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0650	0.1099	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2670	3.5630	3.4326	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2078	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3320	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7400	0.6783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0256	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2330	0.3620	0.3052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2670	0.2463	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2529	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.8940	0.8085	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2677

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.018	0.250
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.000	-0.086	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	-0.152	0.250
predicted_SO	0.914	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.914	2.000	-0.914	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.914	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.026
predicted_AB	3.727	0.098
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	0.037
predicted_H	0.990	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.228	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.717	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.4103	0.2564	0.0513	0.1538	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	16.000	8.000	32.000	0.2677	0.3357	0.4016	0.2677	0.0236	0.1102	0.0630	0.2520

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2781
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.2410
predicted_OBP	0.3396
predicted_R	0.5740
predicted_RBI	0.7660
predicted_SLG	0.4881
predicted_SO	0.9600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0520	0.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.8000	3.7274	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2940	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0570	0.9903	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2410	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3396	0.3398	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.5740	0.5243	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.7660	0.7167	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4881	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9140	0.9600	0.9405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1746

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	0.694	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	1.000	-0.056	-1.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.250	-0.007	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.552	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.102
predicted_H	0.667	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.553	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1714	0.2162	0.2000	0.1714	0.0000	0.0857	0.0286	0.1143
season	0.20	36	-	126.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	19.000	0.1746	0.2571	0.2540	0.1746	0.0079	0.1032	0.0873	0.1508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.2036
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2561
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.2721
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1660	0.1779	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5900	3.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2036	0.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.1290	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7310	0.6669	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2561	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2800	0.3263	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4500	0.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5280	0.5720	0.5533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.079	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.079	4.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	-0.200	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	1.000	-0.816	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.250	-0.236	-0.250
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.500	-0.284	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.447	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.447	3.000	0.553	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.079	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.184	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	1.447	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.006
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.023	-0.056
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.046
predicted_H	0.753	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.494	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.178	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000
predicted_SO	1.602	0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.079

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	11.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	17.000	0.2250	0.2619	0.2750	0.2250	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.4250
season	0.20	38	-	155.000	31.000	7.000	2.000	18.000	15.000	7.000	55.000	0.2000	0.2364	0.2839	0.2000	0.0129	0.1161	0.0452	0.3548

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9830
predicted_AVG	0.1952
predicted_BB	0.1060
predicted_H	0.7770
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2371
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.2664
predicted_SO	1.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1940	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0790	3.9830	4.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1952	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1840	0.1060	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7770	0.7533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2371	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.5650	0.4945	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1840	0.1782	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2664	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4470	1.7120	1.6020	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Carlos Narváez (665966) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 24

All-history rows before 20260512: 24

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2078

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.208	2.000	0.792	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.292	0.500
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.333	0.226	0.167
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.175	0.500
predicted_SO	0.958	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	1.000	-0.958	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.208	-
predicted_AVG	0.163	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.305	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.154	-0.054
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	0.108
predicted_H	0.472	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.231	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.305	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.0769	0.3333	0.1538	0.0769	0.0000	0.0000	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.4000	0.1667	0.0667	0.0667	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.20	24	-	77.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	23.000	0.2078	0.2738	0.3247	0.2078	0.0260	0.0390	0.0649	0.2987

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1080
predicted_AVG	0.1634
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.5080
predicted_HBP	0.2310
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3050
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.3059
predicted_SO	0.8780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1630	0.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2080	3.1080	3.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1630	0.1634	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.4090	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5080	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2310	0.2310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3050	0.3050	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.5300	0.4585	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1730	0.1624	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	0.8780	0.9149	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	665966
playerID	665966
playerName	Carlos Narváez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	3.000	-1.471	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.333	-0.254	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.529	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	0.000	1.471	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.333	0.138	0.167
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.333	-0.305	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	0.353	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.553	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	-0.134
predicted_H	0.817	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.187	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.443	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2368	0.2105	0.0263	0.0526	0.1053
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	15.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2542	0.3623	0.3051	0.2542	0.0678	0.1525	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2346
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2912
predicted_R	0.4520
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2937
predicted_SO	0.5260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1010	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.6280	3.5530	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2346	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.2730	0.3954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8510	0.8171	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2912	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4520	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1940	0.1873	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2937	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3530	0.5260	0.4433	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.152	5.000	-0.152	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.200	0.303	0.300
predicted_BB	0.303	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	1.182	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.200	0.343	0.400
predicted_R	0.576	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	0.424	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	2.455	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.200	0.422	0.550
predicted_SO	1.091	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	0.000	-1.091	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.203	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	0.019
predicted_H	0.818	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.128	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.381	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.092	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2326	0.2826	0.4651	0.2326	0.0698	0.1628	0.0698	0.2558
season	0.20	33	-	137.000	27.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	36.000	0.1971	0.2568	0.3285	0.1971	0.0292	0.1314	0.0730	0.2628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1540
predicted_AVG	0.1951
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1270
predicted_OBP	0.2578
predicted_R	0.3720
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.3278
predicted_SO	1.0920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1660	0.1727	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	4.1540	4.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1951	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3350	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8100	0.8184	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1270	0.1283	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.3720	0.4579	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3750	0.3813	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	1.0920	1.0916	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

System season_avg: 0.7500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.7500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.7500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	2.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.750	0.750	-0.150	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.750	0.750	-0.150	-0.150
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	1.400	0.500	Hitting_SLG	1.250	1.250	0.150	0.150
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	2.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.552	-0.448
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.951	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.070
predicted_H	1.196	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.109	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.121	0.121
predicted_RBI	0.545	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000
predicted_SO	0.210	0.210

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.7500	0.7500	1.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.7500	0.7500	1.2500	0.7500	0.2500
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.7500	0.7500	1.2500	0.7500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3850
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8230
predicted_AVG	0.3037
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	1.1610
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3579
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.5320
predicted_SLG	0.4954
predicted_SO	0.7590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	2.0000	0.3850	1.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0036	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8230	3.9509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3037	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2520	0.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.1610	1.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1070	0.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3579	0.3580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4350	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5320	0.5450	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4954	0.4951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7590	0.2104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	681508
playerID	681508
playerName	Mickey Gasper
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jovani Morán (663558) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.583	0.000	2.417	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	1.083	0.000	2.917	4.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	3.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.650	1.100	1.450	2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	0.000	1.333	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.100	4.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	4.3200	1.5600	0.4800	0.8400	0.7200	0.6000	0.2400
last_10	0.35	10	19.200	6.000	11.000	11.000	18.000	3.000	2.7458	1.1186	0.3051	0.5593	0.5593	0.9153	0.1525
season	0.20	11	21.200	6.000	12.000	12.000	20.000	3.000	2.4923	1.1077	0.2769	0.5538	0.5538	0.9231	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3140
predicted_ER	1.1260
predicted_ERA	3.8280
predicted_H	2.1750
predicted_HR	0.4140
predicted_IP	2.2000
predicted_SO	2.3110
predicted_WHIP	1.3183

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.3140	0.5559	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.1260	2.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8280	3.8280	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	2.1750	3.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4140	0.7521	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	2.2000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.3110	2.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3183	1.3183	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	16
Pitches	63

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663558
playerID	663558
playerName	Jovani Morán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 13

All-history rows before 20260512: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.262	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	-1.231	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.7241	0.2069	1.4483
season	0.20	13	12.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.7105	0.7895	0.0790	0.5526	0.2368	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_ER	0.4720
predicted_ERA	2.9456
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6350
predicted_WHIP	1.1008

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4240	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4720	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9456	2.9456	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1650	0.4299	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6350	0.6034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1008	1.1008	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-0.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	19.000	2.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.8478	0.3913	1.2391	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3240
predicted_ER	0.4790
predicted_ERA	4.3123
predicted_H	0.9680
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0350
predicted_WHIP	1.2922

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3240	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4790	0.1856	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3123	4.3123	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9680	0.9876	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0350	1.0136	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2922	1.2922	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.056	0.000	-1.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.683	0.200	0.317	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	3.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	1.2692	0.3462	0.8077	0.1154
season	0.20	17	15.100	8.000	17.000	5.000	18.000	4.000	4.6957	1.4348	0.5217	1.1087	0.3261	1.1739	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.4840
predicted_ERA	4.3602
predicted_H	1.0550
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8640
predicted_WHIP	1.3992

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3440	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4840	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3602	4.3602	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0550	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8640	1.5598	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3992	1.3992	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.28
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Tyler Samaniego (701719) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.942	0.200	0.058	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	1.0000	0.6667	0.3333	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	12.200	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.8684	0.6316	0.2368	0.5526
season	0.20	12	14.100	8.000	6.000	11.000	0.9767	0.5581	0.4186	0.7674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	2.6714
predicted_H	0.9290
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9170
predicted_WHIP	1.1861

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4010	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3330	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6714	2.6714	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9290	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9170	0.9684	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1861	1.1861	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	701719
playerID	701719
playerName	Tyler Samaniego
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	0.100	0.150	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	3.8571	2.3571	0.4286	1.0714	1.2857	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	2.5312	1.3125	0.2812	0.7500	0.5625	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	14	14.000	6.000	11.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.7857	0.5000	0.8571	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5580
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	3.9074
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0130
predicted_WHIP	1.4842

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5580	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9074	3.9074	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9260	0.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0130	0.3835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4842	1.4842	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260512_SD@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.68, "home_win_probability": 0.68, "away_win_probability": 0.31999999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "SD 2 - 5 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "SD 2 - 5 MIL", "confidence": 0.68, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 2 - 5 MIL", "winner": "MIL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SD 2 - 5 MIL	MIL	0.680	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SD 2 - 5 MIL	MIL	-	advisory_box_score_draw	True

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SD	5-5	0.500	3.10	3.60	-5	2W	cold	average
Home MIL	7-3	0.700	5	2.60	24	4W	average	strong

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SD	-	-	2	-	-	-	-
Game target MIL	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SD	34	6	1	0	1	3	9
Player finalized MIL	34	9	3	0	3	3	8
Player model fractional SD	32.18	6.15	3.50	0.88	3.05	3.26	8.13
Player model fractional MIL	33.32	8.16	4.75	0.75	4.06	3.86	7.66
Simulation box SD	34	7	2	0	2	2	12
Simulation box MIL	32	8	5	2	5	6	12

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SD	Starter	Bradgley Rodriguez	3.20	3	5	4	4	3.25	1.05	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Adrian Morejon	1.10	0	2	1	0	4.71	1.20	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Mason Miller	1.10	2	1	1	1	3.40	1.21	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Wandy Peralta	1.10	1	3	1	0	4.04	1.39	-
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jeremiah Estrada	1	0	2	1	0	3.45	1.21	True
Away SD	Middle Reliever	Jason Adam	0.20	0	2	1	1	3.39	1.19	True
Home MIL	Starter	Brandon Sproat	4.10	2	8	6	0	4.06	1.32	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Abner Uribe	1.20	0	1	1	1	3.62	1.13	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Aaron Ashby	1	0	1	0	0	2.63	1.29	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	DL Hall	1	0	2	0	0	3.41	1.21	True
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Grant Anderson	1	0	2	0	0	4.35	1.32	-
Home MIL	Middle Reliever	Trevor Megill	1	0	0	0	1	3.66	1.22	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SD

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 27

All-history rows before 20260512: 27

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2900

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.704	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.704	4.000	0.296	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.074	0.000	-0.074	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.000	-0.067	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.370	0.000	-0.370	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.460	0.000	-0.210	0.250
predicted_SO	0.704	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	2.000	0.296	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	3.704	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.094	0.020
predicted_AB	3.788	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.095	-0.016
predicted_H	0.870	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.323	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.725	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.3500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2368	0.2368	0.4737	0.2368	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.1579
season	0.20	27	-	100.000	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	19.000	0.2900	0.3173	0.4600	0.2900	0.0200	0.1000	0.0300	0.1900

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.2339
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_H	0.9020
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2519
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.4107
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2590	0.1780	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.1100	0.0940	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7040	3.8550	3.7879	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2339	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0830	0.0954	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9020	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2519	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3150	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3450	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4107	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.7420	0.7251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	2.000	0.079	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.500	0.022	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	3.000	-0.395	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.800	-0.053	-0.550
predicted_R	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.500	-0.112	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.053	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	0.000	0.947	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.801	-0.229
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	0.170
predicted_H	0.878	-0.052
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.066	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.192
predicted_RBI	0.243	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.999	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.2941	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	0.2973	0.3953	0.4324	0.2973	0.0270	0.0811	0.1622	0.2432
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	15.000	40.000	0.2282	0.3030	0.3624	0.2282	0.0268	0.1208	0.1007	0.2685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1990
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2314
predicted_BB	0.6860
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.3538
predicted_R	0.2500
predicted_RBI	0.2310
predicted_SLG	0.3397
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1990	0.2040	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.6380	3.8007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.6860	0.5652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.8420	0.8785	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0630	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.2500	0.3865	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2310	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3397	0.3398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	0.9610	0.9992	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	3.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.257	0.500
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	2.000	-0.447	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	1.079	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.400	0.179	0.100
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.263	1.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.292	0.000	0.458	0.750
predicted_SO	1.079	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.079	1.000	-0.079	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	1.079	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.032	0.006
predicted_AB	3.609	-0.180
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.464	0.017
predicted_H	0.780	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.327	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.391	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.113

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.1875	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2286	0.3000	0.3143	0.2286	0.0857	0.1143	0.2571
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	14.000	17.000	41.000	0.2431	0.3212	0.2917	0.2431	0.0972	0.1181	0.2847

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.2178
predicted_BB	0.4760
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3105
predicted_R	0.2970
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.2746
predicted_SO	0.8850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0750	0.0987	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0360	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.4810	3.6088	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2178	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.4760	0.4640	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.7580	0.7796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3105	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.2970	0.3265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.3780	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2746	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0790	0.8850	0.9655	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-2B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	3.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.053	0.250
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_R	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.197	0.500
predicted_SO	0.895	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.895	2.000	0.105	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.211	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.470	-0.004
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.041
predicted_H	0.728	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000
predicted_SO	0.892	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.0000	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.1765	0.1944	0.2941	0.1765	0.0294	0.1765	0.0294	0.3824
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	0.1970	0.2394	0.3030	0.1970	0.0152	0.1667	0.0606	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2228
predicted_BB	0.1320
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2514
predicted_R	0.3060
predicted_RBI	0.4970
predicted_SLG	0.3311
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1720	0.1905	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.4660	3.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2228	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.1320	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7720	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2514	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2110	0.3060	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4970	0.4699	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3311	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	0.8890	0.8919	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2624

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.079	1.000	-0.079	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.262	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	2.000	-0.974	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.500	-0.338	-0.500
predicted_R	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	1.000	-0.447	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.750	-0.411	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.720	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.081
predicted_H	0.863	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	0.824	0.140

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.0833	0.2778
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	37.000	3.000	6.000	21.000	17.000	16.000	26.000	0.2624	0.3376	0.4113	0.2624	0.0425	0.1489	0.1135	0.1844

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.2398
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2944
predicted_R	0.3920
predicted_RBI	0.5110
predicted_SLG	0.4012
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0790	0.1460	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7260	3.7197	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2398	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.2810	0.3395	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8940	0.8631	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1500	0.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2944	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.3920	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5110	0.4939	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4012	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.9240	0.8237	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1912

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.579	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.579	4.000	-0.579	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.124	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.142	0.333
predicted_BB	0.553	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	0.000	0.447	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.500	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.206	0.500
predicted_R	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	1.000	0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	-0.020	0.333
predicted_SO	0.947	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	2.000	0.053	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.579	-
predicted_AVG	0.124	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.208	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.624	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.124	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.084
predicted_H	0.443	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.122 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.0556	0.1429	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.1081	0.1905	0.2703	0.1081	0.0541	0.1081	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.20	38	-	136.000	26.000	4.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	21.000	36.000	0.1912	0.2938	0.3529	0.1912	0.0441	0.1471	0.1544	0.2647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.1237
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.4520
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.2080
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.4330
predicted_SLG	0.2856
predicted_SO	1.1050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0460	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5790	3.6570	3.6245	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1240	0.1237	0.1238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.4090	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4520	0.4428	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1764	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2080	0.2080	0.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.5220	0.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4330	0.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2856	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.1050	1.0392	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Freddy Fermin (666023) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 21

All-history rows before 20260512: 21

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	3.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.667	-0.167	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.524	2.000	-0.524	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.667	-0.269	-0.667
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.227	0.667	-0.227	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.762	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	0.000	2.238	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.237	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.070
predicted_H	0.512	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.416	-0.108
predicted_RBI	0.142	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1515	0.2162	0.2121	0.1515	0.0303	0.0606	0.2121
season	0.20	21	-	66.000	11.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	0.1667	0.2692	0.2273	0.1667	0.0454	0.1212	0.2424

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1240
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3190
predicted_AVG	0.1736
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_H	0.5760
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2394
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.1620
predicted_SLG	0.2394
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1240	0.1548	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.3190	3.2367	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1736	0.1738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.2500	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5760	0.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0248	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2394	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.3210	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1620	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2394	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.6450	0.6997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666023
playerID	666023
playerName	Freddy Fermin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1961

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	3.000	-0.517
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	-0.196
predicted_BB	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	1.000	0.759
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	0.000	-0.690
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.250	-0.005
predicted_R	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	-0.345
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.363	0.000	-0.363
predicted_SO	0.862	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	1.000	0.138

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.111
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.495	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	0.047
predicted_H	0.624	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.365	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.287	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	-0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1515	0.2432	0.2424	0.1515	0.0303	0.0909	0.0909	0.2424
season	0.20	29	-	102.000	20.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	7.000	25.000	0.1961	0.2545	0.3627	0.1961	0.0294	0.0882	0.0686	0.2451

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4770
predicted_AVG	0.1872
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.6510
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2654
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3330
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.0780	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.4770	3.4946	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1872	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.3250	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6510	0.6241	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2654	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.3810	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3000	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3330	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.7500	0.7993	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Ramón Laureano (657656) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2248

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	2.000	0.206	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.144	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.025	0.250
predicted_BB	0.441	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.333	-0.056	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	-0.153	0.250
predicted_SO	1.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.265	1.000	-0.265	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.144	-
predicted_BB	0.441	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	1.265	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.028
predicted_AB	3.437	-0.357
predicted_AVG	0.144	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.115
predicted_H	0.454	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.159	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.464	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	1.186	-0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.0769	0.2941	0.3077	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077	0.3846
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.2188	0.1250	0.0312	0.0312	0.1875	0.4062
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	29.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	19.000	17.000	15.000	43.000	0.2248	0.3061	0.4031	0.2248	0.0388	0.1473	0.1163	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.1760
predicted_AVG	0.1438
predicted_BB	0.6400
predicted_H	0.4570
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.2891
predicted_R	0.4370
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.3125
predicted_SO	1.1280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0420	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0100	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.1760	3.4366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1440	0.1438	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4410	0.6400	0.5561	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.4570	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1580	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2891	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4370	0.4636	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2650	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3125	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2650	1.1280	1.1858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657656
playerID	657656
playerName	Ramón Laureano
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_BB	0.294	0.000	3.706	4.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	2.765	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.882	0.000	3.118	4.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.965	1.000	2.235	2.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	4.176	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.6875	0.3750	0.1875	0.3750	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.5806	0.3871	0.3871
season	0.20	17	19.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	14.000	1.8305	1.0169	0.2034	0.7627	0.2542	0.7119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7380
predicted_ER	0.9010
predicted_ERA	3.2487
predicted_H	1.8920
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.8310
predicted_WHIP	1.0533

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	0.7380	2.6531	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.9010	2.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2487	3.2487	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.8920	3.1296	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1800	0.6614	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	2.1000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	1.8310	3.6915	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0533	1.0533	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	4
SO	5
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.83
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	0.000	-0.222	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.972	0.100	0.128	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.444	0.000	0.556	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	6.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	5.000	7.000	4.000	18.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9429	0.4286	0.6000	0.3429	1.5429	0.1714
season	0.20	18	21.000	13.000	22.000	5.000	26.000	2.000	5.5714	1.2857	0.6190	1.0476	0.2381	1.2381	0.0952

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4050
predicted_ER	0.6620
predicted_ERA	4.7077
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5250
predicted_WHIP	1.2039

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4050	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6620	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7077	4.7077	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1180	1.0495	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1800	0.0756	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5250	1.8006	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2039	1.2039	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	1
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	1
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	2.000	0.722	-1.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	1.889	2.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.100	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.111	4.000	-1.111	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	2.0625
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.5806	0.3871	1.7419
season	0.20	18	18.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	38.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.3750	0.2679	2.0357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	3.3961
predicted_H	0.9550
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6420
predicted_WHIP	1.2089

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4850	0.7901	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4500	1.3684	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3961	3.3961	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9550	0.9817	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0880	0.6284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6420	1.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2089	1.2089	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Wandy Peralta (593974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	2.176	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.7647	1.5882	0.5294	0.8823	0.7059	0.5294	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	4.000	10.000	6.000	9.000	2.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	0.8571	0.5143	0.7714	0.1714
season	0.20	17	18.000	6.000	19.000	8.000	14.000	3.000	3.0000	1.5000	0.3333	1.0556	0.4444	0.7778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5800
predicted_ER	0.5580
predicted_ERA	4.0395
predicted_H	1.1520
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0380
predicted_WHIP	1.3935

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5800	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5580	0.8215	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0395	4.0395	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1520	1.0614	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1830	0.0739	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0380	2.2078	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3935	1.3935	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593974
playerID	593974
playerName	Wandy Peralta
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 11

All-history rows before 20260512: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.882	0.200	0.118	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.5294	0.5294	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	0.8438	0.7500	0.0938	0.4688	0.2812	1.3125	0.0938
season	0.20	11	11.100	5.000	6.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	3.9706	1.0588	0.4412	0.5294	0.5294	1.4118	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	0.3830
predicted_ERA	3.4513
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1130
predicted_WHIP	1.2060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4000	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3830	0.1374	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4513	3.4513	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8060	0.9304	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1290	0.0463	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1130	1.6818	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2060	1.2060	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.97
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 13

All-history rows before 20260512: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.869	1.000	-0.669	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.385	0.000	1.615	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	13	12.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.5000	0.8333	0.1667	0.5833	0.2500	0.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.2920
predicted_ERA	3.3946
predicted_H	0.6490
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6100
predicted_WHIP	1.1920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2740	0.7358	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2920	0.1063	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3946	3.3946	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6490	0.8722	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1020	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6100	1.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1920	1.1920	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: MIL

Christian Yelich (592885) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 13

All-history rows before 20260512: 13

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3061

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	2.000	-0.769	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	0.000	-1.154	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.000	-0.120	0.250
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	-0.388	0.000
predicted_SO	1.077	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	0.000	-0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	0.018
predicted_3B	0.057	-0.020
predicted_AB	3.673	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.406	0.021
predicted_H	0.948	-0.012
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.374	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.989	-0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3125	0.2500	0.0625	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3889	0.2778	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	13	-	49.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	0.3061	0.3704	0.3878	0.3061	0.1225	0.1020	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.5770
predicted_AVG	0.2614
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3421
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.3688
predicted_SO	0.9010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1890	0.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0370	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.5770	3.6732	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2614	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.4260	0.4055	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9350	0.9475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3421	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.4480	0.5702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3690	0.3745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3688	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	0.9010	0.9892	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260412_WAS@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592885
playerID	592885
playerName	Christian Yelich
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2655

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.235	0.250
predicted_BB	0.467	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.154	0.250
predicted_R	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.478	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.469	1.000	0.781	0.250
predicted_SO	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	2.000	-0.900	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.478	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.046
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.667	-0.100
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	0.048
predicted_H	0.972	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.734	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.478	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.934	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	7.000	10.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.4722	0.2778	0.0278	0.1667	0.1944	0.2778
season	0.20	30	-	113.000	30.000	5.000	6.000	20.000	22.000	14.000	27.000	0.2655	0.3465	0.4690	0.2655	0.0531	0.1770	0.1239	0.2389

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.2753
predicted_BB	0.5520
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_OBP	0.3720
predicted_R	0.7350
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.4777
predicted_SO	0.9600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2480	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.5920	3.6674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2753	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.5520	0.5154	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9890	0.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1580	0.1546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3720	0.3720	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.7350	0.7341	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5120	0.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4780	0.4777	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.9600	0.9342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 5

All-history rows before 20260512: 5

System season_avg: 0.3640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.400	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.400	4.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.600	0.000	0.400	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.417	0.200	-0.017	0.200
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	2.400	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.600	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.498	-0.102
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	4.261	-0.139
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.372	-0.028
predicted_H	1.256	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.272	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.547	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.400

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.5000	0.3636	0.1364	0.0909	0.2273
last_10	0.35	5	-	22.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.5000	0.3636	0.1364	0.0909	0.2273
season	0.20	5	-	22.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3636	0.4167	0.5000	0.3636	0.1364	0.0909	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3540
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	4.0660
predicted_AVG	0.2973
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_H	1.2090
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3550
predicted_R	0.3730
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.4415
predicted_SO	0.9190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.6000	0.3540	0.4978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4000	4.0660	4.2613	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2973	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3330	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.2090	1.2564	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0720	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3550	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3730	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5280	0.5467	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4415	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9190	0.9664	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.364

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.240	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.240	4.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.148	0.333
predicted_BB	0.320	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.000	0.244	0.500
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.198	0.000	0.136	0.333
predicted_SO	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.760	1.000	-0.760	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.240	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	0.760	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	0.056
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.311	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.065
predicted_H	0.521	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.157 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2353	0.2000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1000	0.2000
season	0.20	25	-	81.000	15.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	8.000	19.000	0.1852	0.2556	0.1975	0.1852	0.1111	0.0988	0.2346

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3710
predicted_AVG	0.1723
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	0.5810
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2162
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.5090
predicted_SLG	0.2404
predicted_SO	0.7530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.1430	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2400	3.3710	3.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1723	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.2010	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5810	0.5213	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.4000	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5090	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2404	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7600	0.7530	0.7562	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2054

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.613	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.128	0.333
predicted_BB	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	0.000	0.281	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.200	0.500
predicted_R	0.516	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.000	0.030	0.333
predicted_SO	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.613	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.452	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.052	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.587	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	-0.036
predicted_H	0.794	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.474	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.271	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.399	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	2.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.4167	0.2500	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.0556
season	0.20	31	-	112.000	23.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	16.000	13.000	14.000	0.2054	0.2937	0.3036	0.2054	0.0268	0.0714	0.1161	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3080
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3283
predicted_SO	0.3590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0430	0.0525	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6130	3.5680	3.5874	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.3550	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8430	0.7943	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0930	0.0874	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.4430	0.4745	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2870	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3283	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4520	0.3590	0.3991	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2958

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.057	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.057	2.000	-0.057	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.500	-0.296	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.457	2.000	-0.457	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.750	-0.369	-0.750
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.743	0.000	-0.743	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.500	-0.408	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.514	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.514	1.000	1.486	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.057	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.457	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.363	-
predicted_SO	0.514	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.967	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	-0.039
predicted_H	1.134	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.715	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.363	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.057

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3478	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	0.3500	0.4130	0.4500	0.3500	0.0250	0.2500	0.1000	0.1250
season	0.20	35	-	142.000	42.000	7.000	3.000	26.000	21.000	16.000	18.000	0.2958	0.3688	0.4085	0.2958	0.0211	0.1831	0.1127	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9020
predicted_AVG	0.2913
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	1.1370
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3639
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.7180
predicted_SLG	0.3635
predicted_SO	0.5990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0900	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0570	3.9020	3.9666	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2913	0.2912	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4570	0.3910	0.4185	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1370	1.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3639	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4270	0.4991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7180	0.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3630	0.3635	0.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5140	0.5990	0.5636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2980

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	4.000	-0.743	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.500	0.369	0.167
predicted_BB	0.829	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.829	0.000	1.171	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.114	2.000	0.886	0.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.500	0.378	0.300
predicted_R	0.886	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.886	1.000	0.114	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.657	1.000	-0.657	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.511	1.250	0.155	-0.583
predicted_SO	0.943	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.829	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.415	-
predicted_R	0.886	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	0.943	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.904	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.684	-0.145
predicted_H	1.296	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.252	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.000
predicted_R	0.870	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.000
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.332 HR/AB=0.065

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.6190	0.3333	0.0952	0.1429	0.0952	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	15.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	0.3947	0.5000	0.6316	0.3947	0.0526	0.1316	0.2105	0.1316
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	39.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	31.000	29.000	33.000	0.2977	0.4224	0.5115	0.2977	0.0458	0.1756	0.2214	0.2519

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9420
predicted_AVG	0.3314
predicted_BB	0.5810
predicted_H	1.3070
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2540
predicted_OBP	0.4152
predicted_R	0.8580
predicted_RBI	0.5600
predicted_SLG	0.5694
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.1620	0.1899	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.9420	3.9037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3314	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8290	0.5810	0.6843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.3070	1.2958	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2540	0.2523	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4150	0.4152	0.4151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8860	0.8580	0.8697	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5600	0.5558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5694	0.5692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9430	0.7450	0.8274	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2240

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.000	-0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	1.464	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.464	2.000	2.536	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.643	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.234	-
predicted_SO	1.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.674	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.172	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	-0.126
predicted_H	0.601	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.000
predicted_SO	1.343	-0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1818	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.1750	0.2609	0.2250	0.1750	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3000
season	0.20	28	-	98.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	22.000	15.000	18.000	41.000	0.2245	0.3475	0.3367	0.2245	0.0102	0.2245	0.1837	0.4184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1270
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8080
predicted_AVG	0.1719
predicted_BB	0.4190
predicted_H	0.6550
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2554
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.2343
predicted_SO	1.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.1270	0.1649	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0090	0.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.8080	3.6738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1719	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6430	0.4190	0.5166	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6550	0.6005	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.4240	0.4728	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4820	0.4419	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2340	0.2343	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4640	1.2500	1.3432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.103	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.103	3.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	0.000	-0.724	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	-0.080	0.250
predicted_R	0.517	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.724	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	1.000	1.276	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.103	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.414	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.264	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	0.020
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.277	0.174
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	-0.104
predicted_H	0.639	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.264	0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2121	0.2353	0.2727	0.2121	0.0909	0.0303	0.3030
season	0.20	29	-	90.000	21.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	12.000	21.000	0.2333	0.3301	0.2556	0.2333	0.0778	0.1333	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4170
predicted_AVG	0.2102
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_H	0.7180
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2613
predicted_R	0.3700
predicted_RBI	0.2210
predicted_SLG	0.2641
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1050	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1030	3.4170	3.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2102	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4140	0.2260	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7180	0.6387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2613	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.3700	0.4355	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2210	0.1983	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2640	0.2641	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.9980	0.8760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Sproat (687075) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	2.571	3.000	-2.571	-3.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.857	0.000	-0.857	2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	4.143	1.000	1.857	5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.114	4.000	-0.014	0.100
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_SO	4.286	5.000	3.714	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.000	9.000	19.000	11.000	23.000	3.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.7917	0.4583	0.9583	0.1250
last_10	0.35	7	30.200	20.000	29.000	18.000	30.000	7.000	5.8696	1.5326	0.6522	0.9456	0.5870	0.9783	0.2283
season	0.20	7	30.200	20.000	29.000	18.000	30.000	7.000	5.8696	1.5326	0.6522	0.9456	0.5870	0.9783	0.2283

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9900
predicted_ER	2.0220
predicted_ERA	4.0615
predicted_H	3.9200
predicted_HR	0.6300
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.3060
predicted_WHIP	1.3187

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.9900	0.9431	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0220	2.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0615	4.0615	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	3.9200	5.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6300	0.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.3060	6.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3187	1.3187	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	6
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	8
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	16
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.87
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687075
playerID	687075
playerName	Brandon Sproat
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.406	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	0.6000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	3.0000	0.8889	0.3333	0.5556	0.3333	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	16	14.100	6.000	11.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	3.7674	1.0465	0.4186	0.7674	0.2791	1.0465	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_ER	0.5730
predicted_ERA	3.6201
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3910
predicted_WHIP	1.1284

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4820	0.8027	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5730	0.2182	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6201	3.6201	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1260	1.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3910	1.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1284	1.1284	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.221	1.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	2.158	3.000	-1.158	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	1.000	4.000	6.000	13.000	0.000	1.0385	1.1538	0.1154	0.4615	0.6923	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	1.000	8.000	10.000	22.000	0.000	0.6750	1.3500	0.0750	0.6000	0.7500	1.6500	0.0000
season	0.20	19	26.000	6.000	19.000	15.000	41.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3077	0.2308	0.7308	0.5769	1.5769	0.0385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_ER	0.3640
predicted_ERA	2.6308
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5790
predicted_WHIP	1.2866

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6700	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3640	0.1610	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6308	2.6308	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9330	0.4126	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5790	1.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2866	1.2866	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.824	2.000	-0.824	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.588	1.000	-0.588	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.047	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	0.000	0.765	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	4.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.5625	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	17	19.000	4.000	10.000	14.000	21.000	1.000	1.8947	1.2632	0.2105	0.5263	0.7368	1.1053	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.3790
predicted_ERA	3.4089
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9510
predicted_WHIP	1.2139

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3790	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4089	3.4089	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7040	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9510	1.5706	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2139	1.2139	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.250	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.4310
predicted_ERA	4.3484
predicted_H	0.9150
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8590
predicted_WHIP	1.3153

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.1031	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4310	0.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3484	4.3484	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9150	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2040	0.0812	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8590	1.5460	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3153	1.3153	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.067	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.7000	0.3000	1.1000
season	0.20	14	14.000	5.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	3.2143	1.1429	0.3571	0.7143	0.4286	1.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_ER	0.4070
predicted_ERA	3.6642
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0280
predicted_WHIP	1.2165

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3770	0.7641	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4070	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6642	3.6642	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8390	0.3176	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0280	0.3892	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2165	1.2165	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260512_SEA@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 4 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 3 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SEA 5 - 4 HOU	SEA	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SEA 5 - 3 HOU	SEA	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SEA	4-6	0.400	3.80	4.10	-3	2L	average	average
Home HOU	5-5	0.500	3.90	4.10	-2	2L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-13	HOU @ SEA	2 - 6	SEA	4	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	1 - 6	SEA	5	blowout
2026-04-12	HOU @ SEA	7 - 8	SEA	1	close
2026-04-11	HOU @ SEA	6 - 9	SEA	3	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SEA	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Game target HOU	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SEA	33	8	4	0	3	1	9
Player finalized HOU	32	9	2	0	0	0	9
Player model fractional SEA	32.06	7.28	4.07	1.30	4.13	3.08	8.53
Player model fractional HOU	31.99	7.07	3.98	1.06	2.89	2.56	7.52
Simulation box SEA	34	7	5	1	5	5	9
Simulation box HOU	37	10	3	0	3	3	6

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SEA	Starter	Bryan Woo	4.20	0	4	5	2	4.74	1.18	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Andrés Muñoz	2	3	0	4	1	4.02	1.26	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Eduard Bazardo	1.10	0	0	0	0	4.14	1.41	True
Away SEA	Middle Reliever	Cooper Criswell	1	0	2	1	0	2.90	0.93	True
Home HOU	Starter	Tatsuya Imai	2.20	4	5	5	5	4.98	1.51	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan Abreu	1.20	1	0	2	0	4.30	1.46	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Bryan King	1.20	0	1	0	0	3.53	1.27	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	AJ Blubaugh	1	0	0	0	0	3.43	1.30	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Enyel De Los Santos	1	0	2	0	0	4.02	1.21	True
Home HOU	Middle Reliever	Kai-Wei Teng	1	0	1	0	0	4.27	1.33	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SEA

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.343	0.600
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	2.100	3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.231	0.600
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.000	0.371	0.800
predicted_SO	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.647	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.065
predicted_H	0.726	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	-0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1714	0.2857	0.2000	0.1714	0.0000	0.0857	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	20	-	70.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	13.000	0.2571	0.3690	0.4286	0.2571	0.0429	0.1143	0.1143	0.1857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.1987
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.2748
predicted_R	0.3960
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2710
predicted_SO	0.5450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0960	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.6780	3.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1987	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.2800	0.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7310	0.7259	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0522	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2748	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3960	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2640	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.5450	0.5934	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1523

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.974	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	4.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.070	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.181	0.333
predicted_BB	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	0.816	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.131	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.235	0.000	0.265	0.500
predicted_R	0.342	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	0.000	2.553	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.143	1.333	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	1.015	1.333
predicted_SO	1.395	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.395	1.000	-1.395	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.070	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.131	-
predicted_R	0.342	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.143	-
predicted_SO	1.395	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.969	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.070	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.095
predicted_H	0.270	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.131	0.000
predicted_R	0.238	-0.104
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.143	0.000
predicted_SO	1.444	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.068 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	17.000	0.0250	0.0909	0.1000	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.0750	0.4250
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	53.000	0.1523	0.2353	0.3179	0.1523	0.0464	0.1126	0.1126	0.3510

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9650
predicted_AVG	0.0700
predicted_BB	0.2850
predicted_H	0.2770
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.1311
predicted_R	0.1640
predicted_RBI	0.2380
predicted_SLG	0.1430
predicted_SO	1.4780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0460	0.0704	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	3.9650	3.9687	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0700	0.0700	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.2850	0.3520	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.2770	0.2700	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0800	0.0800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1310	0.1311	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3420	0.1640	0.2376	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2380	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1430	0.1430	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3950	1.4780	1.4437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2484

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.923	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.923	4.000	1.077	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.317	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	-0.048	0.200
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	0.000	0.026	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.110	0.200
predicted_R	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	-0.173	0.200
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.317	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.474	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.943	0.020
predicted_AVG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.276	-0.057
predicted_H	1.239	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.450	0.142
predicted_RBI	0.529	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.474	0.000
predicted_SO	0.627	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.923

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.5500	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4750	0.3500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	39	-	153.000	38.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	13.000	27.000	0.2484	0.3095	0.3725	0.2484	0.0327	0.1307	0.0850	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9570
predicted_AVG	0.3167
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	1.2530
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3575
predicted_R	0.5500
predicted_RBI	0.5360
predicted_SLG	0.4741
predicted_SO	0.5810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1800	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9230	3.9570	3.9429	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3170	0.3167	0.3168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2360	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2530	1.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1460	0.1435	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3575	0.3573	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.5500	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5360	0.5294	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4740	0.4741	0.4741	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.5810	0.6270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 33

All-history rows before 20260512: 33

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.515	4.000	-1.515	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.788	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.788	0.000	1.212	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.146	0.500
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.697	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	0.000	0.303	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.515	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.788	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.550	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.730	-0.058
predicted_H	0.586	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.691	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.1176	0.2857	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.3514	0.1892	0.0541	0.1081	0.1892	0.1892
season	0.20	33	-	116.000	23.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	23.000	0.1983	0.3542	0.3276	0.1983	0.0345	0.0948	0.2241	0.1983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.1735
predicted_BB	0.6880
predicted_H	0.6200
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3099
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.2450
predicted_SLG	0.2679
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0450	0.0645	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5150	3.5750	3.5496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1735	0.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7880	0.6880	0.7303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6200	0.5862	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0960	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3099	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.5010	0.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2450	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2679	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.6870	0.6912	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2603

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	3.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.333	0.073	0.000
predicted_BB	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.905	1.000	0.095	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.333	0.165	0.167
predicted_R	0.476	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	0.524	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.333	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SO	0.929	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.476	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.310	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.074
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.431	-0.045
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	-0.047
predicted_H	0.721	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.241	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.283	-0.193
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	12.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0882	0.0588	0.3529
season	0.20	42	-	146.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	20.000	13.000	39.000	0.2603	0.3354	0.3767	0.2603	0.0205	0.1507	0.0890	0.2671

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2690
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.2300
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.2410
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3220
predicted_R	0.1460
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.3370
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.2690	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4760	3.3990	3.4310	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2291	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3100	0.2300	0.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7790	0.7213	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2410	0.2410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.1460	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4830	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3370	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9500	0.9413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 26

All-history rows before 20260512: 26

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2740

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.808	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.808	3.000	1.192	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.274	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.333	-0.341	-0.333
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.333	-0.493	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	2.000	0.231	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.808	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.089
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.800	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.043
predicted_H	0.586	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.855	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1818	0.3077	0.1818	0.1818	0.0000	0.0909	0.1818	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	0.2400	0.3214	0.2800	0.2400	0.0000	0.0800	0.1200	0.4400
season	0.20	26	-	73.000	20.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	11.000	7.000	20.000	0.2740	0.3415	0.4932	0.2740	0.0411	0.1644	0.0959	0.2740

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.7940
predicted_AVG	0.2269
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	0.6340
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3156
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.3096
predicted_SO	0.9300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.1030	0.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8080	2.7940	2.8005	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2269	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.3490	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6340	0.5858	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3156	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.2990	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3010	0.2774	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3096	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.9300	0.8554	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2553

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.241	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.241	2.000	0.759	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	1.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.828	0.000	-0.828	0.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.333	-0.314	-0.333
predicted_R	0.448	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	-0.448	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.724	0.000	-0.724	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.647	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SO	1.310	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.310	1.000	1.690	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.241	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	1.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.647	-
predicted_SO	1.310	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.083	-0.158
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	0.056
predicted_H	0.647	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.394	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.088
predicted_RBI	1.315	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.647	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.245	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.122

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3571	1.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.8333	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.4643	0.1429	0.1071	0.3571	0.0714	0.4286
season	0.20	29	-	94.000	24.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	21.000	13.000	6.000	38.000	0.2553	0.3137	0.5426	0.2553	0.0745	0.2234	0.0638	0.4043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	2.9560
predicted_AVG	0.2206
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.6520
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.3980
predicted_OBP	0.2962
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	1.3280
predicted_SLG	0.6469
predicted_SO	1.1920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0510	0.0898	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0190	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2410	2.9560	3.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2206	0.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.3080	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6520	0.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3980	0.3944	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.6070	0.5361	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.3000	1.3280	1.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6470	0.6469	0.6469	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3100	1.1920	1.2446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2771

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.952	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.952	4.000	0.048	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.095	2.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	0.059	-0.100
predicted_R	0.524	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.714	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.452	1.250	-0.202	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.952	-
predicted_AVG	0.342	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.714	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.958	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.275	-0.058
predicted_H	1.345	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.423	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.153
predicted_RBI	0.584	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.714	0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.340 HR/AB=0.107

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.952

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.9000	0.4000	0.1500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	2.000	11.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.7750	0.3500	0.1250	0.1750	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.20	42	-	166.000	46.000	8.000	7.000	19.000	22.000	14.000	42.000	0.2771	0.3407	0.4518	0.2771	0.0422	0.1145	0.0843	0.2530

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9630
predicted_AVG	0.3418
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	1.3550
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.4250
predicted_OBP	0.3818
predicted_R	0.7830
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.7140
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1960	0.1935	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9520	3.9630	3.9585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3420	0.3418	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2350	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.3550	1.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4250	0.4230	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.7830	0.6769	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5860	0.5835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7140	0.7140	0.7140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0850	1.0502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.500	-0.285	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	2.000	-1.024	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.371	0.500	-0.371	-0.500
predicted_R	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.500	-0.417	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.677	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.137
predicted_H	1.159	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.237	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000
predicted_R	0.595	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.247	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.086	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.4211	0.4210	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.3514	0.2703	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.3513
season	0.20	42	-	151.000	43.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	27.000	17.000	42.000	0.2848	0.3714	0.4172	0.2848	0.0199	0.0861	0.1126	0.2782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7350
predicted_AVG	0.3269
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	1.2210
predicted_HBP	0.2370
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3931
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.2590
predicted_SLG	0.3958
predicted_SO	1.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.0640	0.1258	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.7350	3.6773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3269	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.1730	0.2685	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.2210	1.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2370	0.2370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3931	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.5620	0.5954	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2590	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3958	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1460	1.0859	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Bryan Woo (693433) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	2.625	0.000	-2.625	0.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.875	1.000	0.125	4.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.875	6.000	-1.675	-1.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.750	9.000	-0.750	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	18.000	29.000	4.000	21.000	6.000	5.5862	1.1379	0.6207	1.0000	0.1379	0.7241	0.2069
last_10	0.35	8	47.000	21.000	39.000	8.000	38.000	6.000	4.0213	1.0000	0.4468	0.8298	0.1702	0.8085	0.1277
season	0.20	8	47.000	21.000	39.000	8.000	38.000	6.000	4.0213	1.0000	0.4468	0.8298	0.1702	0.8085	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2710
predicted_ER	2.8190
predicted_ERA	4.7442
predicted_H	5.0460
predicted_HR	0.8620
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.4410
predicted_WHIP	1.1813

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2710	1.6446	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.8190	1.3743	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7442	4.7442	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.0460	5.0224	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8620	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.4410	4.2150	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1813	1.1813	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	693433
playerID	693433
playerName	Bryan Woo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.588	0.000	2.412	3.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	0.882	1.000	3.118	3.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.529	1.000	-1.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	7.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	2.8929	0.9643	0.3214	0.7500	0.2143	1.7143	0.2143
season	0.20	17	16.000	10.000	15.000	7.000	26.000	3.000	5.6250	1.3750	0.6250	0.9375	0.4375	1.6250	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.7200
predicted_ERA	4.0241
predicted_H	1.4890
predicted_HR	0.2530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9740
predicted_WHIP	1.2555

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5330	0.8170	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.7200	2.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0241	4.0241	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.4890	3.0163	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2530	0.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.9740	0.7734	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2555	1.2555	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 21

All-history rows before 20260512: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.781	1.000	0.319	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.810	3.000	-0.810	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	5.7857	1.9286	0.6429	1.5000	0.4286	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.1786	0.3214	0.9643	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	21	19.200	5.000	17.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	2.2881	1.2203	0.2542	0.8644	0.3559	0.8644	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_ER	0.5460
predicted_ERA	4.1411
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HR	0.1610
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1860
predicted_WHIP	1.4103

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4300	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5460	0.2254	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1411	4.1411	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2440	0.5136	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1610	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1860	0.4897	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4103	1.4103	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.221	1.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	9.000	1.000	1.7419	0.5806	0.1935	0.5806	0.0000	0.8710	0.0968
season	0.20	14	17.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	16.000	3.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.6346	0.1731	0.9231	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_ER	0.3310
predicted_ERA	2.9009
predicted_H	0.7100
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9620
predicted_WHIP	0.9309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2460	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3310	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9009	2.9009	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7100	0.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9620	1.5849	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9309	0.9309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: HOU

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.571	0.250	-0.571	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.585	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.065	0.065
predicted_H	0.929	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.214	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.397	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000
predicted_SO	0.567	0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	6	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.0952	0.0952	0.1429
season	0.20	6	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.5714	0.2857	0.0952	0.0952	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1040
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7120
predicted_AVG	0.2783
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.3144
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.5015
predicted_SO	0.6670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1040	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7120	3.5851	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2783	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1630	0.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0330	0.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2360	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3144	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5310	0.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4380	0.3973	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5015	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6670	0.5670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.040	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	5.000	1.079	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.600	-0.055	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.600	-0.135	-0.400
predicted_R	0.658	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.658	1.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.600	0.017	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.842	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.040	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.658	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.991	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.274	-0.173
predicted_H	1.105	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.620	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.147	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.871	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.040

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.3500	0.2750	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	38.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	25.000	17.000	32.000	0.2550	0.3353	0.3826	0.2550	0.0201	0.0604	0.1141	0.2148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9560
predicted_AVG	0.2765
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3224
predicted_R	0.5930
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.3623
predicted_SO	0.8920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2370	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0400	3.9560	3.9908	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2765	0.2767	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.1510	0.2736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0940	1.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3224	0.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6580	0.5930	0.6199	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1450	0.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3623	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.8920	0.8713	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Dezenzo (701305) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.333	-0.167	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.333	0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.667	1.333	-0.667	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.198	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.688	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.498	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.476	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	0.586	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.6667	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.6660
predicted_AVG	0.2313
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.8480
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2825
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.4401
predicted_SO	0.7890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1450	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0036	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6660	3.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2313	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2290	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8480	0.6879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1990	0.1646	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2825	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4950	0.4985	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5840	0.4759	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4401	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.7890	0.5861	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701305
playerID	701305
playerName	Zach Dezenzo
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3065

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.333	-0.056	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.333	-0.118	-0.083
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.333	-0.266	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.423	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.047
predicted_H	0.648	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.334	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.312	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.713	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2059	0.2500	0.2941	0.2059	0.0294	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	19.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	6.000	12.000	0.3065	0.3676	0.5161	0.3065	0.0484	0.1935	0.0968	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4040
predicted_AVG	0.2089
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.2638
predicted_R	0.2830
predicted_RBI	0.3410
predicted_SLG	0.3680
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.0800	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.4040	3.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2089	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2430	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7110	0.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1510	0.1361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2638	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2830	0.3338	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3410	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3680	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7550	0.7128	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.487	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.487	2.000	0.513	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	2.000	-0.462	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.718	0.000	0.282	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.500	-0.056	-0.250
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	-0.066	0.250
predicted_SO	1.128	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.128	1.000	-1.128	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.487	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	1.128	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.350	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.528	0.066
predicted_H	0.493	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.181	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.0714	0.2778	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	11.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2059	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.3235
season	0.20	39	-	136.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	18.000	44.000	0.2059	0.3057	0.3162	0.2059	0.0221	0.1103	0.1323	0.3235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2520
predicted_AVG	0.1526
predicted_BB	0.5750
predicted_H	0.4960
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2827
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.1810
predicted_SLG	0.2039
predicted_SO	1.0420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0770	0.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4870	3.2520	3.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1526	0.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.5750	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.4960	0.4935	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2827	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.2750	0.3314	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1810	0.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2039	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1280	1.0420	1.0779	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2748

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2100

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.639	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.639	4.000	0.361	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.750	-0.025	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.750	0.033	-0.350
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	1.000	-0.472	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.750	-0.147	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.639	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.639	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.030
predicted_H	1.093	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.058	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.000
predicted_R	0.292	-0.152
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.398	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.601	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.3235	0.4250	0.4118	0.3235	0.0000	0.0588	0.1471	0.1765
season	0.20	36	-	131.000	36.000	7.000	3.000	17.000	16.000	14.000	23.000	0.2748	0.3667	0.3969	0.2748	0.0229	0.1298	0.1069	0.1756

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5810
predicted_AVG	0.3059
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	1.0950
predicted_HBP	0.0580
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3742
predicted_R	0.1810
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.3979
predicted_SO	0.5730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2270	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6390	3.5810	3.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3370	0.3589	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0950	1.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0580	0.0580	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3742	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.1810	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3620	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3979	0.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6390	0.5730	0.6007	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2073

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	0.840	1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.280	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.280	4.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.293	0.500
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	1.320	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.242	0.500
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	0.323	0.750
predicted_SO	1.240	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.240	3.000	-1.240	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	1.240	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.075	0.035
predicted_AB	3.470	0.190
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	-0.030
predicted_H	0.637	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.000
predicted_R	0.463	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	1.178	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.4444	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.1892	0.2439	0.4054	0.1892	0.0541	0.1351	0.0811	0.3243
season	0.20	25	-	82.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	6.000	31.000	0.2073	0.2584	0.4268	0.2073	0.0488	0.1463	0.0732	0.3780

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.6290
predicted_AVG	0.1982
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.7190
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2357
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.4191
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0700	0.1111	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1040	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2800	3.6290	3.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1982	0.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.1850	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.7190	0.6373	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1750	0.1545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2357	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.5160	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3890	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4191	0.4191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2400	1.1260	1.1780	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 42

All-history rows before 20260512: 42

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3141

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	5.000	1.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.200	0.086	0.200
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.200	-0.016	0.200
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.310	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.628	0.200	-0.228	0.200
predicted_SO	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	3.000	0.310	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.664	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.109
predicted_H	0.855	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.195
predicted_RBI	0.405	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.113	0.423

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.3947
season	0.20	42	-	156.000	49.000	10.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	24.000	29.000	0.3141	0.4162	0.6282	0.3141	0.0833	0.1859	0.1538	0.1859

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6300
predicted_AVG	0.2347
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.3154
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.4326
predicted_SO	1.4060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1760	0.2014	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.6300	3.6644	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2347	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.3860	0.4617	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8520	0.8553	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1800	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3154	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.3140	0.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4020	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4326	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	1.4060	1.1132	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2781

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	3.000	0.317	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.222	0.500
predicted_BB	0.366	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.366	1.000	0.634	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.024	0.000	0.976	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.233	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	0.251	0.350
predicted_R	0.585	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.585	0.000	0.415	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.517	0.000	-0.017	0.500
predicted_SO	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.780	2.000	0.220	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.366	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.233	-
predicted_R	0.585	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.780	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.091
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.705	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.311	-0.055
predicted_H	0.619	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.114	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.233	-0.000
predicted_R	0.477	-0.108
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	0.813	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0526	0.1000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	42.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	24.000	15.000	32.000	0.2781	0.3491	0.5166	0.2782	0.0596	0.1788	0.0993	0.2119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.1702
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.2328
predicted_R	0.4010
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.2830
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.0640	0.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.7210	3.7053	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1702	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3660	0.2720	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6330	0.6193	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1170	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2330	0.2328	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5850	0.4010	0.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2750	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2830	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7800	0.8360	0.8128	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Tatsuya Imai (837227) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 3

All-history rows before 20260512: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_BB	3.667	4.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_ER	2.333	3.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	2.333	1.000	2.667	4.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.500	0.100	-0.300	2.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.333	0.000	0.667	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	8.200	7.000	7.000	11.000	13.000	7.2692	2.0769	0.8077	0.8077	1.2692	1.5000
last_10	0.35	3	8.200	7.000	7.000	11.000	13.000	7.2692	2.0769	0.8077	0.8077	1.2692	1.5000
season	0.20	3	8.200	7.000	7.000	11.000	13.000	7.2692	2.0769	0.8077	0.8077	1.2692	1.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6750
predicted_ER	1.5230
predicted_ERA	4.9820
predicted_H	2.4940
predicted_HR	0.2630
predicted_IP	2.2000
predicted_SO	3.0180
predicted_WHIP	1.5148

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.6750	3.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.5230	3.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9820	4.9820	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	2.4940	4.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2630	0.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	2.2000	2.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.0180	4.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5148	1.5148	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	5
R	4
ER	4
BB	5
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	106

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	7.27
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260410_HOU@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	837227
playerID	837227
playerName	Tatsuya Imai
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	0.100	0.379	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.429	0.000	-1.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.7500	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	9.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	0.9000	1.1000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	12.200	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.2368	2.2895	1.0263	1.0263	1.2632	1.5790	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7960
predicted_ER	0.6890
predicted_ERA	4.2953
predicted_H	1.3170
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6350
predicted_WHIP	1.4642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7960	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6890	0.8852	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2953	4.2953	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3170	1.7479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1710	0.0631	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6350	0.6034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4642	1.4642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.24
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.214	1.000	-1.214	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.057	1.000	0.143	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.071	0.000	-0.071	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	14.000	4.000	8.000	3.4615	1.3846	0.3846	1.0769	0.3077	0.6154
season	0.20	14	16.200	6.000	17.000	5.000	15.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	1.0200	0.3000	0.9000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_ER	0.6020
predicted_ERA	3.5324
predicted_H	1.4970
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.2630
predicted_WHIP	1.2722

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4540	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6020	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5324	3.5324	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4970	0.5927	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0467	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2630	1.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2722	1.2722	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SEA@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.413	1.000	-0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.312	0.000	-1.312	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	1.000	2.2500	1.2500	0.2500	0.6250	0.6250	0.8750	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	3.000	9.000	9.000	14.000	2.000	1.8409	1.2273	0.2046	0.6136	0.6136	0.9546	0.1364
season	0.20	16	24.000	13.000	20.000	14.000	21.000	4.000	4.8750	1.4167	0.5417	0.8333	0.5833	0.8750	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6110
predicted_ER	0.4710
predicted_ERA	3.4311
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2988

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6110	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4710	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4311	3.4311	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9940	0.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1640	0.0711	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1510	0.4993	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2988	1.2988	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.88
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.027
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.933	2.000	1.067

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	6.0968	1.3548	0.6774	1.0645	0.2903	0.9677	0.0000
season	0.20	15	16.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.1875	0.5000	0.9375	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.4470
predicted_ERA	4.0207
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9700
predicted_WHIP	1.2076

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3230	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4470	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0207	4.0207	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8850	0.3467	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9700	1.5965	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2076	1.2076	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Kai-Wei Teng (678906) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.600	3.000	-0.600	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.333	5.000	-1.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.547	3.000	-0.547	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.533	1.000	-0.533	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	0.7241	0.1035
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2000	0.3818	0.8182	0.3818	0.8727	0.0546
season	0.20	15	26.000	9.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.1154	1.0769	0.3462	0.7692	0.3077	0.8846	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4920
predicted_ER	0.6990
predicted_ERA	4.2679
predicted_H	1.4650
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3000
predicted_WHIP	1.3274

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4920	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6990	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2679	4.2679	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4650	0.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3000	1.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3274	1.3274	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	63
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	40
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	678906
playerID	678906
playerName	Kai-Wei Teng
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260512_SF@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.522403, "home_win_probability": 0.522403, "away_win_probability": 0.47759700000000005, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence": 0.522403, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "SF 3 - 6 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	SF 3 - 4 LAD	LAD	0.522	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	SF 3 - 6 LAD	LAD	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away SF	3-7	0.300	3.10	5.40	-23	1W	cold	weak
Home LAD	4-6	0.400	3.80	3.60	2	2L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	3 - 0	LAD	3	blowout
2026-04-23	LAD @ SF	0 - 3	SF	3	blowout
2026-04-22	LAD @ SF	1 - 3	SF	2	close

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target SF	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target LAD	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Player finalized SF	35	9	4	0	4	0	8
Player finalized LAD	34	9	5	0	3	2	8
Player model fractional SF	34.40	8.70	4.29	1.02	4.01	1.87	7.69
Player model fractional LAD	33.01	7.95	4.78	1.29	4.21	3.56	7.60
Simulation box SF	34	7	3	0	3	5	10
Simulation box LAD	34	10	6	1	6	4	7

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away SF	Starter	Adrian Houser	2.20	0	5	2	3	5.81	1.44	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Keaton Winn	2.10	0	2	2	1	3.26	1.09	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Caleb Kilian	1	0	0	0	0	3.35	1.39	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Matt Gage	1	0	0	1	0	2.55	1.21	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Sam Hentges	1	1	0	0	0	4.14	1.34	True
Away SF	Middle Reliever	Joel Peguero	0	5	0	5	0	4.02	1.27	True
Home LAD	Starter	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	4.20	2	6	3	3	3.57	1.17	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Blake Treinen	1.20	1	0	2	1	3.49	1.19	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Tanner Scott	1.10	0	2	1	1	2.93	1.01	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Will Klein	1	0	0	1	0	3.67	1.39	True
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Jack Dreyer	0.20	1	2	1	0	2.92	1.15	-
Home LAD	Middle Reliever	Alex Vesia	0.10	0	2	0	0	5.16	1.35	True

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: SF

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_AB	3.974	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.974	6.000	-0.974	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.333	0.355	0.333
predicted_BB	0.211	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.237	2.000	0.763	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.333	0.458	0.467
predicted_R	0.421	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	1.632	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.333	0.949	1.000
predicted_SO	0.184	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.184	0.000	0.816	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.974	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.267	0.083
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.024
predicted_AB	4.064	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	0.047
predicted_H	1.242	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000
predicted_SO	0.274	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.974

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3913	0.4286	0.3333	0.1429	0.0952	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.3023	0.3333	0.3953	0.3023	0.1395	0.0465	0.0698
season	0.20	38	-	151.000	47.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	16.000	8.000	7.000	0.3113	0.3416	0.3841	0.3113	0.0927	0.0530	0.0464

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3260
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.1280
predicted_AVG	0.3065
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	1.2650
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3524
predicted_R	0.5980
predicted_RBI	0.5390
predicted_SLG	0.4060
predicted_SO	0.3380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.3260	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0120	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9740	4.1280	4.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3065	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2910	0.2577	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.2650	1.2421	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3524	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.5980	0.5243	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5390	0.5311	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4060	0.4060	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1840	0.3380	0.2739	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 4

All-history rows before 20260512: 4

System season_avg: 0.1540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1538

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.154	0.250	0.179	0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.214	0.250	0.286	0.250
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	1.000	-0.051	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.386	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.009
predicted_H	0.678	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.341	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.968	-0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077
last_10	0.35	4	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	4	-	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.3846	0.1538	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2155
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.2766
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3916
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1170	0.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6250	3.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2155	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2740	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7810	0.6783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1670	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2766	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4100	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3960	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3916	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9110	0.9678	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.154

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-1B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Eric Haase (606992) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 4

All-history rows before 20260512: 4

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.250	-0.429	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.423	-0.077
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.574	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.811	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	4	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143
season	0.20	4	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.1429	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2880
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.2575
predicted_BB	0.1890
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2993
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.4056
predicted_SO	0.8210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2880	0.4233	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0036	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7040	3.5738	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2575	0.2578	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1890	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9540	0.8111	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0800	0.0672	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2993	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4970	0.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4830	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4056	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8210	0.7757	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	606992
playerID	606992
playerName	Eric Haase
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2937

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	3.000	1.294	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.667	-0.294	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	2.000	-1.088	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.348	0.800	-0.348	-0.800
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.667	-0.516	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.794	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.033	0.004
predicted_AB	3.751	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	0.020
predicted_H	0.941	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.161	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.429	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	17.000	6.000	27.000	0.2937	0.3478	0.5159	0.2937	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7840
predicted_AVG	0.2529
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HBP	0.1610
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3200
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.4352
predicted_SO	0.8090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.0720	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0360	0.0330	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.7840	3.7508	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2529	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2110	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9570	0.9413	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1610	0.1610	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1820	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3200	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6670	0.5959	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4350	0.4286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4352	0.4351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.8090	0.8026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.895	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.895	4.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.277	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	2.000	-1.079	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.600	-0.312	-0.600
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.750	-0.446	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.158	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.158	1.000	0.842	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.895	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	1.158	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.363	0.075
predicted_3B	0.032	0.006
predicted_AB	3.988	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	0.046
predicted_H	1.188	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.652	0.178
predicted_RBI	0.641	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, weight=0.139, BvP AVG=0.188)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.895

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.3810	0.4348	0.6667	0.3810	0.0476	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2683	0.3023	0.4878	0.2683	0.0244	0.1220	0.0488	0.1951
season	0.20	38	-	148.000	41.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	18.000	8.000	44.000	0.2770	0.3121	0.4459	0.2770	0.0270	0.1284	0.0541	0.2973

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4170
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	4.0550
predicted_AVG	0.3085
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_H	1.2510
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.3545
predicted_R	0.7800
predicted_RBI	0.6780
predicted_SLG	0.5334
predicted_SO	0.9460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.4170	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0360	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8950	4.0550	3.9882	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3085	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2900	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2510	1.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3545	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.7800	0.6522	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6780	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5334	0.5332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1580	0.9460	1.0346	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2697

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	5.000	1.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.200	-0.270	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	1.000	-1.025	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.333	-0.317	-0.333
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	1.000	-0.425	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.200	-0.382	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.525	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.525	1.000	-0.525	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.525	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.146	0.216
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.179	-0.071
predicted_H	0.973	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.109	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.407	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.159	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.554	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	24.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2800	0.2917	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2143	0.1905	0.0000	0.0238	0.0238	0.0952
season	0.20	40	-	152.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	17.000	10.000	21.000	0.2697	0.3171	0.3816	0.2697	0.0132	0.0724	0.0658	0.1382

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.2990
predicted_AVG	0.2348
predicted_BB	0.1280
predicted_H	1.0100
predicted_HBP	0.1090
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2746
predicted_R	0.3950
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2999
predicted_SO	0.5750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.1730	0.1946	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0070	0.0145	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	4.2990	4.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2348	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1280	0.1787	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0100	0.9726	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1090	0.1090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2746	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.3950	0.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1660	0.1594	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5250	0.5750	0.5542	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2403

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	0.805	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	3.000	1.244	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.343	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.667	0.160	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.293	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.293	2.000	-0.293	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	2.000	1.098	0.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.122	1.000	-0.122	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.800	0.108	-0.400
predicted_R	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.390	3.000	0.610	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	2.000	-0.439	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.755	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	1.667	0.210	-1.067
predicted_SO	1.195	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.195	0.000	-1.195	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.343	-
predicted_BB	0.293	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.755	-
predicted_SO	1.195	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.279	0.084
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.601	-0.155
predicted_AVG	0.343	0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	0.108
predicted_H	1.206	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.368	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.707	0.317
predicted_RBI	0.674	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.755	0.000
predicted_SO	1.070	-0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.098

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.4118	0.5000	1.0588	0.4118	0.1765	0.2353	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.3636	0.4359	0.7576	0.3636	0.0909	0.2121	0.1515	0.2727
season	0.20	41	-	154.000	37.000	8.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	12.000	49.000	0.2403	0.2917	0.3896	0.2403	0.0325	0.1169	0.0779	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3380
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4910
predicted_AVG	0.3430
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	1.1970
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3660
predicted_OBP	0.4162
predicted_R	0.9310
predicted_RBI	0.6690
predicted_SLG	0.7552
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.3380	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.4910	3.6007	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3430	0.3430	0.3430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2930	0.4780	0.4014	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.1970	1.2065	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.3660	0.3677	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4162	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.9310	0.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6690	0.6736	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7550	0.7552	0.7551	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1950	0.9820	1.0702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

System season_avg: 0.1270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.127	0.200	0.206	0.133
predicted_BB	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.467	1.000	0.533	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.203	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.155	0.200	0.345	0.300
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.218	0.400	0.115	-0.067
predicted_SO	1.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.203	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.014
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.762	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	0.017
predicted_H	0.580	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.203	-0.000
predicted_R	0.290	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.142	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1111	0.1538	0.1389	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	15	-	55.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	18.000	0.1273	0.1552	0.2182	0.1273	0.0182	0.0546	0.0364	0.3273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.1681
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2025
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.2410
predicted_SLG	0.2519
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1600	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.8550	3.7621	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1681	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1660	0.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6480	0.5798	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2030	0.2025	0.2027	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3120	0.2898	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2410	0.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2519	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.0850	1.1418	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.127

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2147

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.075	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.075	5.000	-1.075	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.400	0.119	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.150	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.400	0.253	0.100
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.275	3.000	0.725	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.400	0.323	0.267
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.075	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.150	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.351	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.128	0.053
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.105	-0.045
predicted_H	1.085	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.306	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.606	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.351	0.000
predicted_SO	1.074	-0.176

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.214)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.075

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.3182	0.3182	0.3636	0.3182	0.0000	0.2273	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	10.000	0.2683	0.2683	0.3171	0.2683	0.0000	0.1220	0.0000	0.2439
season	0.20	40	-	163.000	35.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	14.000	6.000	50.000	0.2147	0.2471	0.3436	0.2147	0.0184	0.0675	0.0368	0.3068

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1650
predicted_AVG	0.2747
predicted_BB	0.0730
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2894
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.6390
predicted_SLG	0.3510
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2150	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0750	4.1650	4.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2747	0.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1500	0.0730	0.1048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1440	1.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.2750	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6390	0.6063	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3510	0.3510	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.9500	1.0740	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Adrian Houser (605288) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.571	1.000	1.429	2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	3.571	1.000	-3.571	-1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	6.429	3.000	-4.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.957	6.000	-2.757	-3.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	2.714	3.000	2.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.000	20.000	30.000	8.000	12.000	7.000	7.2000	1.5200	0.8000	1.2000	0.3200	0.4800	0.2800
last_10	0.35	7	36.100	25.000	45.000	11.000	19.000	7.000	6.1927	1.5413	0.6881	1.2385	0.3028	0.5229	0.1927
season	0.20	7	36.100	25.000	45.000	11.000	19.000	7.000	6.1927	1.5413	0.6881	1.2385	0.3028	0.5229	0.1927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3980
predicted_ER	2.6290
predicted_ERA	5.8079
predicted_H	4.4690
predicted_HR	0.8340
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	2.7910
predicted_WHIP	1.4400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.3980	2.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.6290	1.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8079	5.8079	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.4690	3.1702	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.8340	0.9213	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.0000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	2.7910	3.9531	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4400	1.4400	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	17
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.19
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	50
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	605288
playerID	605288
playerName	Adrian Houser
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.474	1.000	1.526	1.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	2.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.916	1.000	1.184	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.789	1.000	1.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	1.8000	0.9000	0.2000	0.5000	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	19	18.100	5.000	9.000	6.000	15.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4909	0.3273	0.8182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_ER	0.6420
predicted_ERA	3.2641
predicted_H	1.3110
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3520
predicted_WHIP	1.0879

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6160	0.8442	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6420	0.2604	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2641	3.2641	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3110	1.7205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3520	1.7372	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0879	1.0879	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.706	2.000	-0.706	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.935	1.000	0.065	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	0.8333	0.8333	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.5000	1.4167	0.1667	0.6667	0.7500	0.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	17	18.000	3.000	9.000	12.000	18.000	2.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.6667	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.4140
predicted_ERA	3.3515
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9740
predicted_WHIP	1.3870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6040	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4140	0.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3515	3.3515	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9370	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0573	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9740	0.3933	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3870	1.3870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	1.200	0.350	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.550	1.000	-0.550	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000	0.4615	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.4800	0.7200	0.4800	0.0000
season	0.20	20	17.200	2.000	9.000	10.000	11.000	1.000	1.0189	1.0755	0.1132	0.5094	0.5660	0.6226	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.2690
predicted_ERA	2.5475
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7730
predicted_WHIP	1.2094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4380	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2690	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5475	2.5475	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7130	0.8847	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7730	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2094	1.2094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Sam Hentges (656529) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 1

All-history rows before 20260512: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total BB	WHIP	BB_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100	1.000	3.0000	3.0000
last_10	0.35	1	0.100	1.000	3.0000	3.0000
season	0.20	1	0.100	1.000	3.0000	3.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_ER	0.4560
predicted_ERA	4.1388
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HR	0.1260
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9370
predicted_WHIP	1.3430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4120	0.0960	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4560	0.8732	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1388	4.1388	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9200	0.2144	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1260	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9370	0.2184	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3430	1.3430	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656529
playerID	656529
playerName	Sam Hentges
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Joel Peguero (666711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 3

All-history rows before 20260512: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	4.667	4.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	4.333	4.000
predicted_IP	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.033	1.100	-1.033	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	3	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.3000
season	0.20	3	3.100	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1530
predicted_ER	0.1840
predicted_ERA	4.0190
predicted_H	0.3700
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3620
predicted_WHIP	1.2718

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1530	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	0.1840	3.6663	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0190	4.0190	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	0.3700	3.7178	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0130	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3620	0.1002	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2718	1.2718	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.0
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	666711
playerID	666711
playerName	Joel Peguero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: LAD

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.282	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.282	1.000	0.718	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.949	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.949	4.000	0.051	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	-0.023	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.359	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	0.000	0.641	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	2.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.063	-0.100
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	2.487	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.750	0.065	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.564	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	1.000	0.436	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.949	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	0.042
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.742	-0.207
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	0.046
predicted_H	1.013	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.152	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.452	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.476	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000
predicted_SO	0.538	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.949

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.3158	0.3659	0.5000	0.3158	0.0263	0.1316	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.20	39	-	154.000	42.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	15.000	14.000	22.000	0.2727	0.3373	0.4351	0.2727	0.0260	0.1299	0.0909	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3540
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2725
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_H	0.9800
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3529
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.4970
predicted_SO	0.5200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2820	0.3540	0.3242	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9490	3.5960	3.7420	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2725	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.4380	0.4053	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	0.9800	1.0131	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1470	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3529	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.5000	0.4524	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4590	0.4760	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4970	0.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.5200	0.5382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	1.000	-0.139	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	3.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.667	0.002	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	2.000	0.111	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.750	-0.079	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	1.000	-0.130	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.167	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.508	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.001
predicted_H	0.813	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.141	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.185	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	0.2571	0.3659	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3143
season	0.20	36	-	129.000	32.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	18.000	15.000	42.000	0.2481	0.3288	0.3798	0.2481	0.0310	0.1318	0.1163	0.3256

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.2508
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.8660
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3504
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.1490
predicted_SLG	0.3299
predicted_SO	1.1980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1590	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.4530	3.5079	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.4150	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8660	0.8128	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3504	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2940	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1490	0.1410	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3299	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.1980	1.1849	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.125	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.125	5.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.200	0.568	0.550
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	2.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.200	0.550	0.600
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.200	0.356	0.550
predicted_SO	0.625	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.383	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.024
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	4.104	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.251	0.001
predicted_H	0.859	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.037	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.589	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.383	0.000
predicted_SO	0.705	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.125

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1818	0.2174	0.3636	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.1818
last_10	0.35	8	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.3939	0.1818	0.0606	0.2121	0.0606	0.1515
season	0.20	8	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.3939	0.1818	0.0606	0.2121	0.0606	0.1515

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.0790
predicted_AVG	0.2102
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0370
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.2632
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.5880
predicted_SLG	0.3830
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1780	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1250	4.0790	4.1039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2102	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2510	0.2505	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8570	0.8586	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0370	0.0370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1710	0.1705	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2632	0.2631	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5770	0.6708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5880	0.5891	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3830	0.3830	0.3830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.8000	0.7051	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2329

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.561	5.000	1.439	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.180	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.367	0.600
predicted_BB	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	2.171	3.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.000	0.237	0.600
predicted_R	0.658	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.610	0.000	0.390	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.390	0.000	1.610	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	0.796	1.200
predicted_SO	1.132	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.049	2.000	-0.049	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.180	-
predicted_BB	0.711	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.658	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.912	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.180	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.562	-0.148
predicted_H	0.691	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0952	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	11.000	0.1053	0.2609	0.1316	0.1053	0.0000	0.0790	0.1842	0.2895
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	34.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	27.000	43.000	0.2329	0.3631	0.4041	0.2329	0.0411	0.1096	0.1849	0.2945

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9610
predicted_AVG	0.1799
predicted_BB	0.4590
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2719
predicted_R	0.4610
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.2571
predicted_SO	1.1800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.1640	0.1722	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.9610	3.9121	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1800	0.1799	0.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7110	0.4590	0.5625	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7130	0.6912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2719	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6580	0.4610	0.5419	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3840	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2571	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	1.1800	1.1603	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.964	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.964	4.000	-0.964	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.500	-0.270	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.071	2.000	-1.071	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.078	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.500	-0.378	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.964	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.398	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.082
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.943	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.049
predicted_H	1.059	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.354	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.820	0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.964

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4103	0.2821	0.0256	0.1282	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.20	28	-	111.000	30.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	12.000	10.000	21.000	0.2703	0.3279	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.1441	0.0901	0.1892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2520
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9270
predicted_AVG	0.2792
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	1.0960
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3270
predicted_R	0.2960
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.3984
predicted_SO	0.8740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.2520	0.1892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9640	3.9270	3.9430	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2710	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0960	1.0587	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3270	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2960	0.3536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4000	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3980	0.3984	0.3982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8740	0.8203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	-0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.840	0.000	0.160	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	-0.095	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.373	0.000	-0.123	0.250
predicted_SO	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.760	1.000	0.240	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	0.760	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.073	0.033
predicted_AB	3.234	0.234
predicted_AVG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	-0.042
predicted_H	0.625	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.264	-0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.318	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1935	0.2424	0.2581	0.1935	0.0000	0.0323	0.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	25	-	75.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	19.000	0.2800	0.3452	0.3733	0.2800	0.0133	0.1067	0.1067	0.2533

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.1020
predicted_AB	3.4350
predicted_AVG	0.2107
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.7240
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2636
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.1950
predicted_SLG	0.3176
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0560	0.0671	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1020	0.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4350	3.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2107	0.2108	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.2420	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.7240	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2636	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3970	0.3984	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1950	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3176	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7600	0.8830	0.8263	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	3.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.333	-0.252	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	1.000	0.410	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	1.000	-0.949	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.500	-0.099	-0.250
predicted_R	0.718	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.718	1.000	-0.718	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.333	-0.395	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.872	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.872	0.000	0.128	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.718	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	0.872	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	0.058
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.409	-0.360
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.708	0.118
predicted_H	0.937	-0.073
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.416	-0.000
predicted_R	0.732	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	0.3077	0.5000	0.4615	0.3077	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	0.2812	0.4000	0.4688	0.2812	0.0312	0.1562	0.2188	0.1562
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	37.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	28.000	23.000	34.000	0.2517	0.3488	0.3946	0.2517	0.0272	0.1293	0.1565	0.2313

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1560
predicted_AVG	0.2808
predicted_BB	0.7900
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.4156
predicted_R	0.7410
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.4424
predicted_SO	0.6560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.3290	0.2886	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.1560	3.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2808	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.7900	0.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.8860	0.9372	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0590	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4156	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7180	0.7410	0.7315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3680	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4424	0.4422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8720	0.6560	0.7452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.447	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.447	4.000	0.553	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.500	-0.282	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	2.000	-0.974	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.500	-0.377	-0.500
predicted_R	0.711	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	1.000	-0.711	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	2.000	-0.447	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.573	1.250	-0.573	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.974	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	1.000	0.026	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.447	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.537	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.368	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.123
predicted_H	0.825	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.273	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.000
predicted_R	0.614	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.618	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.537	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.6250	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	9.000	0.2581	0.3784	0.4839	0.2581	0.0645	0.1935	0.1935	0.2903
season	0.20	38	-	131.000	37.000	5.000	11.000	17.000	27.000	20.000	37.000	0.2824	0.3775	0.5725	0.2824	0.0840	0.1298	0.1527	0.2824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3110
predicted_AVG	0.2568
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	0.8500
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2820
predicted_OBP	0.3180
predicted_R	0.5430
predicted_RBI	0.6380
predicted_SLG	0.5369
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.0780	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4470	3.3110	3.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2568	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.3130	0.4025	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8500	0.8248	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2820	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3180	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.5430	0.6136	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6380	0.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5370	0.5369	0.5369	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	1.0260	1.0042	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.312	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.000	0.007	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.225	0.000	-0.225	1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.132	0.500
predicted_R	0.575	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.575	0.000	0.425	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.713	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.560	0.000	-0.227	0.333
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.312	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.980	-
predicted_SLG	0.713	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.792	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.016
predicted_H	1.124	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.455	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.064
predicted_RBI	1.065	0.085
predicted_SLG	0.713	0.000
predicted_SO	0.620	-0.180

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.120

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.9474	0.3158	0.2105	0.4210	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3659	0.6667	0.3333	0.1026	0.2564	0.0513	0.1282
season	0.20	40	-	150.000	49.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	10.000	32.000	0.3267	0.3681	0.5600	0.3267	0.0600	0.2333	0.0667	0.2133

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8210
predicted_AVG	0.3117
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_H	1.1910
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.4790
predicted_OBP	0.3509
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	1.1260
predicted_SLG	0.7131
predicted_SO	0.4920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0920	0.1369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8210	3.7915	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2220	0.2336	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1910	1.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4790	0.4545	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3509	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.6850	0.6393	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9800	1.1260	1.0653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7130	0.7131	0.7131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.4920	0.6200	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (808967) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_BB	1.429	1.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.143	3.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.857	5.000	-1.857	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.171	6.000	-1.971	-1.800
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_SO	5.714	8.000	0.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	11.000	25.000	9.000	32.000	3.000	3.1263	1.0737	0.3474	0.7895	0.2842	1.0105	0.0947
last_10	0.35	7	43.200	15.000	34.000	10.000	40.000	5.000	3.0916	1.0076	0.3435	0.7786	0.2290	0.9160	0.1145
season	0.20	7	43.200	15.000	34.000	10.000	40.000	5.000	3.0916	1.0076	0.3435	0.7786	0.2290	0.9160	0.1145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7870
predicted_ER	2.2340
predicted_ERA	3.5663
predicted_H	4.7970
predicted_HR	0.6290
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.1676

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.7870	2.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2340	2.1109	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5663	3.5663	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.7970	3.8517	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6290	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	5.5000	5.7630	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1676	1.1676	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	6
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	808967
playerID	808967
playerName	Yoshinobu Yamamoto
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.867	0.000	1.133	2.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.707	1.000	0.493	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	2.0769	0.6923	0.2308	0.6923	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	14	12.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.7500	0.2500	1.0000	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_ER	0.5490
predicted_ERA	3.4923
predicted_H	1.2500
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3970
predicted_WHIP	1.1868

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4270	0.7914	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5490	0.8359	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4923	3.4923	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2500	1.7270	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1500	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3970	0.5085	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1868	1.1868	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.244	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	1.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.6531	0.6122	0.1837	0.4898	0.1225	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3660
predicted_ER	0.3910
predicted_ERA	2.9294
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2260
predicted_WHIP	1.0055

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3660	0.7503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3910	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9294	2.9294	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8430	0.9382	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2260	1.6952	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0055	1.0055	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.417	1.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.225	0.200	-0.225	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.417	1.000	-1.417	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	2.7000	1.5000	0.3000	1.0500	0.4500	1.0500
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	5.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	3.1395	1.5349	0.3488	1.1163	0.4186	1.0465
season	0.20	12	16.100	5.000	17.000	6.000	17.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.0408	0.3674	1.0408

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4500
predicted_ER	0.4610
predicted_ERA	3.6706
predicted_H	1.1220
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1230
predicted_WHIP	1.3891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4500	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4610	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6706	3.6706	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1220	1.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1230	0.4423	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3891	1.3891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.778	1.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.989	1.000	-0.789	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.111	0.000	0.889	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	10.000	1.000	10.000	1.000	2.3824	0.9706	0.2647	0.8823	0.0882	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	18	19.200	5.000	14.000	5.000	20.000	1.000	2.2881	0.9661	0.2542	0.7119	0.2542	1.0170	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2190
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	2.9202
predicted_H	0.7940
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7740
predicted_WHIP	1.1529

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2190	0.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2850	0.7048	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9202	2.9202	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7940	0.9149	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0790	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7740	1.4938	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1529	1.1529	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.294	3.000	-0.294	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.412	3.000	-0.412	-3.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.688	0.100	-0.588	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.0000	1.6667	1.0000	1.0000	0.6667	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	6.4286	1.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714	1.5714
season	0.20	17	13.100	5.000	7.000	7.000	17.000	3.3750	1.0500	0.3750	0.5250	0.5250	1.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_ER	0.2570
predicted_ERA	5.1575
predicted_H	0.4010
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4760
predicted_WHIP	1.3519

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2060	0.0770	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2570	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1575	5.1575	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4010	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0380	0.0142	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4760	1.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3519	1.3519	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_SF@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260512_STL@OAK

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.526198, "home_win_probability": 0.526198, "away_win_probability": 0.47380199999999995, "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "confidence": 0.526198, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "STL 3 - 5 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "STL 2 - 8 OAK", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 3, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	STL 3 - 5 OAK	OAK	0.526	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	STL 2 - 8 OAK	OAK	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away STL	6-4	0.600	4.10	3	11	2L	average	strong
Home OAK	5-5	0.500	5.10	4.90	2	1L	hot	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target STL	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Game target OAK	-	-	5	-	-	-	-
Player finalized STL	34	8	3	0	2	2	8
Player finalized OAK	35	9	5	0	5	3	9
Player model fractional STL	33.73	7.53	3.87	0.85	3.63	2.75	7.37
Player model fractional OAK	33.16	8.40	4.80	1.29	4.89	4.01	8.17
Simulation box STL	31	4	2	1	2	2	7
Simulation box OAK	34	10	8	4	8	3	5

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away STL	Starter	Andre Pallante	3.20	3	0	6	1	4.69	1.36	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Ryne Stanek	1.20	1	2	0	0	3.60	1.22	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Gordon Graceffo	1.10	1	0	1	0	3.58	1.27	-
Away STL	Middle Reliever	Riley O'Brien	1.10	1	1	1	0	4.97	1.34	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	George Soriano	1	3	1	2	2	3.39	1.38	True
Away STL	Middle Reliever	JoJo Romero	0.10	0	1	1	0	4.07	1.22	True
Home OAK	Starter	Jeffrey Springs	5.10	2	4	4	2	4.73	1.32	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Hogan Harris	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.39	1.59	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Scott Barlow	1.10	0	1	0	0	3.55	0.98	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Joel Kuhnel	1	0	1	0	0	3.33	1.18	True
Home OAK	Middle Reliever	Justin Sterner	0.10	1	1	1	0	4.16	1.13	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: STL

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3034

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	-0.816	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	0.030	0.083
predicted_BB	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_HR	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	1.000	0.711	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.391	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.118	0.250
predicted_R	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.816	1.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.763	2.000	0.237	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.575	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.586	1.000	0.747	0.333
predicted_SO	1.184	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	1.000	-1.184	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.391	-
predicted_R	0.816	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.575	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.075
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.684	-0.132
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.557	0.083
predicted_H	1.040	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.236	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.391	-0.000
predicted_R	0.753	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.626	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.575	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	-0.201

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.5294	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	0.3611	0.4524	0.7222	0.3611	0.0833	0.2500	0.1667	0.1944
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	44.000	8.000	11.000	29.000	31.000	18.000	45.000	0.3034	0.3818	0.5862	0.3034	0.0759	0.2000	0.1241	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5910
predicted_AVG	0.2855
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.3907
predicted_R	0.7090
predicted_RBI	0.6170
predicted_SLG	0.5754
predicted_SO	0.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.3390	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.5910	3.6844	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2855	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.6160	0.5571	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0250	1.0395	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2330	0.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3910	0.3907	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8160	0.7090	0.7534	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6170	0.6265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5750	0.5754	0.5752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	0.8410	0.9833	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

José Fermín (665877) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	4.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.250	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.346	0.250	-0.346	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.422	0.172
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.045
predicted_H	0.756	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.215	0.090
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.000
predicted_SO	0.861	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	8	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2500	0.3462	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.0385	0.2692
season	0.20	8	-	26.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2500	0.3462	0.2308	0.0385	0.0769	0.0385	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6490
predicted_AVG	0.2349
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.2831
predicted_R	0.3340
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3854
predicted_SO	0.8420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0900	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6490	3.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2349	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.2290	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8570	0.7564	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1480	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2831	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.3340	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3450	0.3024	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3854	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8420	0.8608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	665877
playerID	665877
playerName	José Fermín
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Thomas Saggese (695336) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.1450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1455

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	2.000	-0.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.145	0.000	-0.145	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.157	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	0.000	-0.188	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.128	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.157	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.190	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.471	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.128	0.000
predicted_BB	0.185	-0.065
predicted_H	0.400	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.157	-0.000
predicted_R	0.288	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.190	0.000
predicted_SO	1.153	-0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.115 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	13.000	0.1143	0.1143	0.1429	0.1143	0.0286	0.0000	0.3714
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	19.000	0.1455	0.2034	0.1818	0.1454	0.0182	0.0727	0.3454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5030
predicted_AVG	0.1282
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_H	0.4490
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.1565
predicted_R	0.2650
predicted_RBI	0.1790
predicted_SLG	0.1903
predicted_SO	1.1200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0960	0.1103	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.5030	3.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1280	0.1282	0.1281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.1220	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4490	0.4002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0341	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1570	0.1565	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.2650	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1790	0.1598	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1900	0.1903	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.1200	1.1535	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.145

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695336
playerID	695336
playerName	Thomas Saggese
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Yohel Pozo (650968) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 2

All-history rows before 20260512: 2

System season_avg: 0.1250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.125	0.250	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.125	0.250	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.000	3.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.419	-0.081
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.950	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	0.072
predicted_H	0.800	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.092	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.125	0.125
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	0.216	0.216

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	2	-	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8420
predicted_AVG	0.2192
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2676
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.4780
predicted_SLG	0.3643
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2450	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8420	3.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2192	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.0718	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8420	0.7996	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0922	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2676	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3940	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4780	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3643	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6820	0.2158	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.125

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260414_CLE@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	650968
playerID	650968
playerName	Yohel Pozo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2680

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.026	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.026	4.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.268	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	1.000	-1.079	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.250	-0.339	-0.250
predicted_R	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.553	1.000	-0.553	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.789	0.000	-0.789	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.250	-0.451	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.711	0.000	0.289	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.026	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	0.711	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.996	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.351	-0.096
predicted_H	1.019	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.589	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.794	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.026

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.4750	0.2750	0.0500	0.2000	0.0750	0.2500
season	0.20	38	-	153.000	41.000	10.000	6.000	30.000	21.000	17.000	27.000	0.2680	0.3392	0.4510	0.2680	0.0392	0.1961	0.1111	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9750
predicted_AVG	0.2597
predicted_BB	0.2840
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3097
predicted_R	0.6050
predicted_RBI	0.5950
predicted_SLG	0.4494
predicted_SO	0.8530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2080	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0260	3.9750	3.9961	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2597	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.2840	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0320	1.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1810	0.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3097	0.3098	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.6050	0.5835	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5950	0.5888	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4494	0.4492	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7110	0.8530	0.7943	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.000	-0.157	0.250
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.000	-0.171	0.250
predicted_SO	0.825	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	1.000	-0.825	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.700	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.317	0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.791	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.305	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	-0.198
predicted_H	1.150	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	0.994	0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3250
season	0.20	40	-	145.000	38.000	11.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	28.000	33.000	0.2621	0.4066	0.4207	0.2621	0.0276	0.1241	0.1931	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.3049
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	1.1910
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.3695
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.4221
predicted_SO	1.1110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.3460	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.9070	3.7914	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3049	0.3049	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7000	0.3640	0.5017	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.1910	1.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3695	0.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.4250	0.4762	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3450	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4221	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	1.1110	0.9938	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 30

All-history rows before 20260512: 30

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2523

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	-1.700	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	0.000	-0.933	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.000	0.051	0.333
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.086
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.723	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.010
predicted_H	0.899	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.324	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	-0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2564	0.2750	0.3590	0.2564	0.0000	0.1026	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	28.000	5.000	4.000	14.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	0.2523	0.2821	0.4054	0.2522	0.0360	0.1261	0.0450	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3190
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7400
predicted_AVG	0.2609
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	0.9760
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.2970
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3510
predicted_SLG	0.3844
predicted_SO	0.6360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.3190	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7400	3.7226	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2609	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1850	0.1771	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9760	0.8992	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0434	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4030	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3510	0.3244	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3844	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.6360	0.7075	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2384

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.872	4.000	0.128	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	-0.238	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.513	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	-0.354	-0.250
predicted_R	0.769	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.250	-0.411	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	1.000	-0.795	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.513	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.769	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.920	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.448	-0.065
predicted_H	0.769	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.147	-
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.614	-0.155
predicted_RBI	0.464	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	0.785	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.2750	0.2000	0.0250	0.1250	0.1000	0.1750
season	0.20	39	-	151.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	30.000	20.000	31.000	0.2384	0.3536	0.4106	0.2384	0.0464	0.1325	0.1325	0.2053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.1966
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.1470
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2961
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.4590
predicted_SLG	0.2701
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0480	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	3.8720	3.9204	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1966	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5130	0.4030	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.7610	0.7688	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1470	0.1470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0770	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7690	0.5060	0.6139	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4590	0.4635	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2701	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7780	0.7850	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.853	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	3.000	0.257	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.248	0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	1.000	-0.371	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	0.000	1.057	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.171	0.250
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	0.543	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.000	0.149	0.500
predicted_SO	0.882	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.853	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.302	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.093	0.034
predicted_AB	3.767	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	-0.067
predicted_H	0.701	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.302	0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.853

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1500	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.3243	0.2432	0.0000	0.0811	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.20	34	-	131.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	16.000	12.000	30.000	0.2519	0.3197	0.3511	0.2519	0.0076	0.1221	0.0916	0.2290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.1180
predicted_AB	3.7050
predicted_AVG	0.1955
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.7240
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2461
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.3025
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.0870	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.1180	0.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8530	3.7050	3.7674	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1955	0.1957	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2380	0.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7240	0.7012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2461	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.3210	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3940	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3020	0.3025	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.8710	0.8756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Andre Pallante (669467) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	2.286	2.000	-1.286	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.571	5.000	0.429	-2.000
predicted_H	6.000	6.000	6.000	Pitching_H	5.000	8.000	1.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	3.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	6.000	-2.100	-2.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	4.143	3.000	-4.143	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	16.000	29.000	9.000	24.000	5.000	5.2683	1.3902	0.5854	1.0610	0.3293	0.8780	0.1829
last_10	0.35	7	37.100	18.000	35.000	16.000	29.000	5.000	4.3393	1.3661	0.4821	0.9375	0.4286	0.7768	0.1339
season	0.20	7	37.100	18.000	35.000	16.000	29.000	5.000	4.3393	1.3661	0.4821	0.9375	0.4286	0.7768	0.1339

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6910
predicted_ER	2.4180
predicted_ERA	4.6920
predicted_H	4.6090
predicted_HR	0.7120
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1620
predicted_WHIP	1.3580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6910	1.3275	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4180	2.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6920	4.6920	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.6090	5.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.7120	1.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	4.1620	1.9726	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3580	1.3580	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	0
HR	2
BF	19
Pitches	74

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.34
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	74
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669467
playerID	669467
playerName	Andre Pallante
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.747	1.000	0.453	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	2.000	0.789	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	5.000	6.000	11.000	0.000	4.1538	1.2692	0.4615	0.5769	0.6923	1.2692	0.0000
season	0.20	19	17.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	23.000	1.000	6.3529	1.8235	0.7059	1.0588	0.7647	1.3529	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5910
predicted_ER	0.5590
predicted_ERA	3.6012
predicted_H	1.1190
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5060
predicted_WHIP	1.2234

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5910	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5590	0.8245	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6012	3.6012	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1190	0.4452	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0454	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5060	1.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2234	1.2234	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.35
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.071	0.100	0.029	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	2.5312	1.1250	0.2812	0.8438	0.2812	0.3750	0.0938
season	0.20	17	21.000	4.000	11.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	1.7143	0.9524	0.1905	0.5238	0.4286	0.4762	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5020
predicted_ER	0.4820
predicted_ERA	3.5817
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HR	0.1580
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	0.8570
predicted_WHIP	1.2724

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5020	0.2107	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4820	0.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5817	3.5817	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0400	1.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1580	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8570	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2724	1.2724	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	2.000	0.684	-1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.895	2.000	0.105	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.926	1.000	0.174	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.211	3.000	-0.211	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	7.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.5000	0.0000	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	13.000	1.000	14.000	1.000	5.5862	1.4483	0.6207	1.3448	0.1035	1.4483	0.1035
season	0.20	19	19.000	6.000	17.000	1.000	23.000	1.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.8947	0.0526	1.2105	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_ER	0.6570
predicted_ERA	4.9690
predicted_H	1.3150
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3780
predicted_WHIP	1.3427

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2820	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6570	0.8596	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9690	4.9690	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3150	1.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1600	0.6562	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3780	1.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3427	1.3427	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.556	1.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	1.444	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	0.200	0.211	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6429	0.8571	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6250	0.5000	0.8750	0.7500	1.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	15.000	1.000	3.1765	1.1765	0.3529	0.5882	0.5882	0.8823	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5110
predicted_ER	0.3590
predicted_ERA	3.3938
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9490
predicted_WHIP	1.3848

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5110	1.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3590	1.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3938	3.3938	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8090	1.5261	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0940	0.6395	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9490	0.9797	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3848	1.3848	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	1.100	-0.721	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.842	2.000	0.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	1.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	10.000	3.000	7.0000	1.4444	0.7778	1.0000	0.4444	1.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	19	19.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	3.000	3.2586	1.1379	0.3621	0.7759	0.3621	0.8276	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	4.0712
predicted_H	0.5170
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6580
predicted_WHIP	1.2220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2450	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1159	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0712	4.0712	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5170	0.8014	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6580	0.8594	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2220	1.2220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.26
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: OAK

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.3410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3412

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.341	0.333	-0.341	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.160	1.000	-1.160	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.250	-0.137	0.000
predicted_R	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.333	-0.553	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.360	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.435	-
predicted_SO	0.360	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.002
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.548	0.148
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	-0.078
predicted_H	0.974	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.099	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.515	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.435	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.451	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2222	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.3684	0.3750	0.6053	0.3684	0.0526	0.2105	0.0263	0.1316
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	29.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	11.000	7.000	9.000	0.3412	0.3871	0.5529	0.3412	0.0471	0.1765	0.0824	0.1059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0350
predicted_AB	3.6710
predicted_AVG	0.2843
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_H	1.0440
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_OBP	0.3079
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.5530
predicted_SLG	0.4346
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1640	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0350	0.0373	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6710	3.5482	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2843	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.1380	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0440	0.9742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1060	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3079	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.3860	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5530	0.5154	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4350	0.4346	0.4348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3600	0.5270	0.4513	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.341

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 36

All-history rows before 20260512: 36

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.139	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.139	2.000	-0.139	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.000	-0.336	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.389	0.000	-1.389	0.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.500	-0.394	-0.500
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.715	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.617	0.000	-0.617	0.000
predicted_SO	0.972	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	0.000	-0.972	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.139	-
predicted_AVG	0.374	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	1.520	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.715	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.088	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.374	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.005
predicted_H	1.516	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.389	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.867	0.089
predicted_RBI	0.948	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.715	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.782	-0.190

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.366 HR/AB=0.094

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.139

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4583	0.8500	0.4000	0.1500	0.3500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	4.000	0.4286	0.4792	0.7619	0.4286	0.0714	0.1905	0.0952	0.0952
season	0.20	36	-	149.000	50.000	9.000	11.000	22.000	28.000	14.000	35.000	0.3356	0.3939	0.6174	0.3356	0.0738	0.1477	0.0940	0.2349

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0520
predicted_AVG	0.3736
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_H	1.5140
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.3880
predicted_OBP	0.4301
predicted_R	0.9300
predicted_RBI	0.9470
predicted_SLG	0.7145
predicted_SO	0.6470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2140	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1390	4.0520	4.0881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3740	0.3736	0.3738	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.3800	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5200	1.5140	1.5165	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3880	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4301	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.9300	0.8669	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.9470	0.9482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7150	0.7145	0.7147	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	0.6470	0.7819	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2590

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	3.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.059	0.200
predicted_BB	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	0.051	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.409	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.250	-0.214	-0.050
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	-0.227	0.200
predicted_SO	1.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.385	2.000	-0.385	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.974	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.409	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	1.385	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.071
predicted_3B	0.077	0.051
predicted_AB	3.851	0.091
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.812	-0.162
predicted_H	1.170	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.409	-0.000
predicted_R	0.631	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.658	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	-0.287

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.5500	0.3500	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4250	0.3000	0.0000	0.1750	0.1500	0.2500
season	0.20	39	-	143.000	37.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	23.000	38.000	54.000	0.2587	0.4144	0.4266	0.2587	0.0350	0.1399	0.2657	0.3776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2990
predicted_3B	0.1120
predicted_AB	3.9140
predicted_AVG	0.3043
predicted_BB	0.6990
predicted_H	1.1910
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.4089
predicted_R	0.6590
predicted_RBI	0.6710
predicted_SLG	0.4692
predicted_SO	0.8990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2990	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1120	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.9140	3.8508	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3043	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9740	0.6990	0.8118	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1910	1.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4090	0.4089	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.6590	0.6307	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6710	0.6583	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4692	0.4691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3850	0.8990	1.0983	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2982

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	3.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.035	0.333
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	-0.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.141	0.500
predicted_R	0.281	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.285	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.000	-0.061	0.333
predicted_SO	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.281	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.285	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.585	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	-0.086
predicted_H	0.711	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.214	-0.067
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.683	0.214

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.1714	0.0571	0.1714
season	0.20	32	-	114.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	15.000	0.2982	0.3594	0.3947	0.2983	0.0088	0.1053	0.0877	0.1316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6030
predicted_AVG	0.2162
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2683
predicted_R	0.1640
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.2847
predicted_SO	0.8440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1610	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.6030	3.5854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2162	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.1610	0.2260	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7790	0.7106	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2810	0.1640	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3220	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2850	0.2847	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.8440	0.6827	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 23

All-history rows before 20260512: 23

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1910

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.870	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.870	3.000	0.130	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.559	0.750
predicted_BB	0.478	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.739	0.000	2.261	3.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	0.783	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.475	0.500
predicted_R	0.391	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.391	0.000	0.609	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.783	0.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.540	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	1.129	1.500
predicted_SO	1.435	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.435	2.000	-1.435	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.870	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.478	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.890	-
predicted_SLG	0.540	-
predicted_SO	1.435	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.058
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.829	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.030
predicted_H	1.029	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.278	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.908	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.540	0.000
predicted_SO	1.337	-0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.870

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4545	0.7222	0.3333	0.1111	0.3333	0.2222	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.5250	0.2750	0.0750	0.2500	0.1000	0.3250
season	0.20	23	-	89.000	17.000	1.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	11.000	33.000	0.1910	0.2745	0.3708	0.1910	0.0562	0.2023	0.1236	0.3708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7950
predicted_AVG	0.2753
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.3621
predicted_R	0.4210
predicted_RBI	0.9220
predicted_SLG	0.5401
predicted_SO	1.2580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0430	0.1470	0.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8700	3.7950	3.8285	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2753	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4780	0.5330	0.5085	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0450	1.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2840	0.2778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3621	0.3621	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.4210	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8900	0.9220	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5400	0.5401	0.5401	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4350	1.2580	1.3369	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.586	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	3.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.141	0.333
predicted_BB	0.552	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.552	1.000	0.448	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	0.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.200	0.250
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	0.517	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.026	0.333
predicted_SO	1.034	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.034	2.000	-1.034	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.586	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.552	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.295	-
predicted_SO	1.034	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.543	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.601	0.049
predicted_H	0.647	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.231	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.295	0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.1765	0.3171	0.2941	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.2059	0.2647
season	0.20	29	-	104.000	20.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	16.000	30.000	0.1923	0.3000	0.3077	0.1923	0.0289	0.1154	0.1538	0.2885

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5100
predicted_AVG	0.1926
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3179
predicted_R	0.6380
predicted_RBI	0.2390
predicted_SLG	0.2952
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1530	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5860	3.5100	3.5430	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1926	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5520	0.6390	0.6012	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6760	0.6473	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3179	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.6380	0.5707	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2390	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0340	1.0260	1.0295	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2712

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.250	-0.021	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	-0.078	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.250	-0.242	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.020
predicted_3B	0.079	0.020
predicted_AB	3.568	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	0.029
predicted_H	0.953	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.347	-0.000
predicted_R	0.608	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.604	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.520	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.6316	0.3158	0.0526	0.2105	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5588	0.2941	0.0588	0.2059	0.1177	0.2941
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	5.000	17.000	0.2712	0.3281	0.4915	0.2712	0.0508	0.1864	0.0848	0.2881

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.6600
predicted_AVG	0.2817
predicted_BB	0.3500
predicted_H	1.0310
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3468
predicted_R	0.6260
predicted_RBI	0.6540
predicted_SLG	0.5196
predicted_SO	1.1350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1570	0.1381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0980	0.0791	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.6600	3.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2817	0.2818	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3500	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0310	0.9529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1730	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3468	0.3469	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.6260	0.6076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6540	0.6036	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5196	0.5198	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1350	1.0695	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 15

All-history rows before 20260512: 15

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1915

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.133	3.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.309	0.500
predicted_BB	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	1.933	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.191	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	5.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	4.667	4.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.000	1.745	2.000
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	0.029
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.297	0.164
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.525	-0.008
predicted_H	0.697	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.391	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	5.000	5.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	0.2188	0.3590	0.3125	0.2188	0.0312	0.1562	0.2188	0.1562
season	0.20	15	-	47.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	0.1915	0.3091	0.2553	0.1915	0.0213	0.1064	0.1702	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4610
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.3311
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.5000
predicted_SLG	0.3117
predicted_SO	0.7200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0580	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1330	3.4610	3.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2291	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.5170	0.5250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7930	0.6967	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0730	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3311	0.3311	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4480	0.3906	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.5000	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7200	0.6601	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	5
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2070

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.316	1.000	-0.316	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.816	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	4.000	0.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.043	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.250	-0.043	0.000
predicted_R	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	1.474	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.500	0.593	0.500
predicted_SO	0.947	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.947	0.000	1.053	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.816	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.579	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	0.947	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.853	0.037
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.428	-0.046
predicted_H	0.705	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.701	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	0.109

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.183 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.816

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.3947	0.1842	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	30.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	22.000	18.000	36.000	0.2069	0.2927	0.4069	0.2069	0.0345	0.1379	0.1241	0.2483

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.1843
predicted_BB	0.3950
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2607
predicted_R	0.7880
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3798
predicted_SO	1.1330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3160	0.2170	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8160	3.8790	3.8528	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1843	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3950	0.4278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7150	0.7046	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1760	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2607	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5790	0.7880	0.7012	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2990	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9470	1.1330	1.0558	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeffrey Springs (605488) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	2.375	2.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_H	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_H	4.750	8.000	-0.750	-4.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	5.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.412	5.100	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	4.000	Pitching_SO	4.875	4.000	-0.875	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	16.000	30.000	6.000	24.000	7.000	5.6104	1.4026	0.6234	1.1688	0.2338	0.9351	0.2727
last_10	0.35	8	44.000	19.000	38.000	12.000	39.000	7.000	3.8864	1.1364	0.4318	0.8636	0.2727	0.8864	0.1591
season	0.20	8	44.000	19.000	38.000	12.000	39.000	7.000	3.8864	1.1364	0.4318	0.8636	0.2727	0.8864	0.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5480
predicted_ER	2.7280
predicted_ERA	4.7280
predicted_H	5.3030
predicted_HR	1.0120
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.8520
predicted_WHIP	1.3191

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5480	1.7796	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.7280	2.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7280	4.7280	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.3030	4.6352	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0120	1.0059	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.8520	4.4154	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3191	1.3191	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.89
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	75
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	605488
playerID	605488
playerName	Jeffrey Springs
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 22

All-history rows before 20260512: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	1.000	0.405	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.7500	0.2500	1.1250	0.6250	1.3750	0.1250
season	0.20	22	20.200	6.000	17.000	17.000	22.000	2.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	0.8226	0.8226	1.0645	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	3.3912
predicted_H	1.1690
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1860
predicted_WHIP	1.5927

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5240	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4000	0.1672	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3912	3.3912	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1690	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1860	1.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5927	1.5927	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.944	2.000	0.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	3.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	2.5312	0.6562	0.2812	0.1875	0.4688	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	17	18.200	3.000	5.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	1.4464	0.6429	0.1607	0.2679	0.3750	0.9107	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_ER	0.4710
predicted_ERA	3.5548
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1280
predicted_WHIP	0.9828

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4680	0.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4710	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5548	3.5548	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7030	0.2865	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1280	1.0522	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9828	0.9828	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.864	1.000	0.136	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.3158	0.4737	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	9.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.1471	0.2647	0.7941	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	14	14.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.8409	0.9545	0.2046	0.6818	0.2727	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_ER	0.3900
predicted_ERA	3.3272
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7400
predicted_WHIP	1.1835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4060	0.1556	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3900	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3272	3.3272	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8430	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0330	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7400	0.9004	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1835	1.1835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Justin Sterner (686993) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.863	0.200	-0.763	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	-0.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	0.7500	0.5000	0.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	3.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.6000	0.2000	1.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	19	19.200	9.000	20.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	4.1186	1.3729	0.4576	1.0170	0.3559	1.1186	0.1525

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	4.1564
predicted_H	0.4250
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5700
predicted_WHIP	1.1328

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2100	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2590	0.6940	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1564	4.1564	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4250	0.7626	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5700	0.8225	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1328	1.1328	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	686993
playerID	686993
playerName	Justin Sterner
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

20260512_TB@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 5 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	TB 4 - 3 TOR	TB	0.510	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	TB 5 - 4 TOR	TB	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away TB	9-1	0.900	4.20	1.80	24	2W	average	strong
Home TOR	4-6	0.400	4.70	3.80	9	2L	average	average

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
2026-05-11	TB @ TOR	8 - 5	TB	3	blowout
2026-05-06	TOR @ TB	0 - 3	TB	3	blowout
2026-05-05	TOR @ TB	3 - 4	TB	1	close
2026-05-04	TOR @ TB	1 - 5	TB	4	blowout

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target TB	-	-	4	-	-	-	-
Game target TOR	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized TB	32	9	4	0	3	2	9
Player finalized TOR	33	9	5	0	2	1	7
Player model fractional TB	31.53	7.43	3.84	0.82	3.67	2.84	6.62
Player model fractional TOR	31.89	7.42	4.16	0.92	3.41	3.30	7.05
Simulation box TB	37	10	5	2	5	2	4
Simulation box TOR	33	6	4	2	4	2	9

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away TB	Starter	Shane McClanahan	4.20	1	5	2	2	3.03	1.16	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Garrett Cleavinger	1.20	0	0	0	0	3.92	1.32	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Bryan Baker	1.10	0	2	0	0	2.83	1.05	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Ian Seymour	1	3	0	3	0	3.84	1.37	True
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Kevin Kelly	1	1	2	1	0	2.80	1.07	-
Away TB	Middle Reliever	Cole Sulser	0.10	0	2	1	0	2.54	1.05	True
Home TOR	Starter	Patrick Corbin	4.10	3	3	5	1	3.48	1.26	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Jeff Hoffman	1.20	0	0	1	1	4.39	1.44	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Braydon Fisher	1	2	0	2	0	5.00	1.26	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Louis Varland	1	0	0	2	0	2.54	1.23	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Tyler Rogers	1	0	1	0	0	4.37	1.33	True
Home TOR	Middle Reliever	Mason Fluharty	0.20	1	2	1	0	3.49	1.18	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: TB

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	2.000	-0.286	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.083	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.464	2.000	0.536	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.750	0.157	-0.250
predicted_R	0.519	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.500	0.007	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.519	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.415	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.509	0.065
predicted_H	0.882	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.516	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.3125	0.3125	0.1875	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.2647	0.3590	0.2647	0.2647	0.0882	0.1471	0.1471
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	12.000	14.000	12.000	21.000	0.2500	0.3365	0.3261	0.2500	0.1304	0.1304	0.2283

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.2745
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3753
predicted_R	0.5130
predicted_RBI	0.4710
predicted_SLG	0.3201
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.0650	0.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0090	0.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.4210	3.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2745	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.5620	0.5095	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9390	0.8816	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3753	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5190	0.5130	0.5157	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4710	0.4394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3201	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.5790	0.6675	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3034

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.940	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.816	5.000	1.184	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.000	-0.103	0.200
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.158	0.000	-0.158	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	-0.182	0.200
predicted_R	0.526	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.448	0.000	-0.248	0.200
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	2.000	0.421	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.940	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	0.027
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.904	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.202	-0.140
predicted_H	0.919	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.369	-0.157
predicted_RBI	0.346	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	0.181

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.940

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2273	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.2368	0.2500	0.3421	0.2368	0.0263	0.0790	0.0000	0.1842
season	0.20	38	-	145.000	44.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	13.000	22.000	0.3034	0.3818	0.4483	0.3034	0.0345	0.1586	0.0897	0.1517

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8790
predicted_AVG	0.2352
predicted_BB	0.1030
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2722
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.3331
predicted_SO	0.8880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1510	0.1319	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9400	3.8790	3.9043	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2352	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.1030	0.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9120	0.9195	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0712	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2722	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.2580	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3430	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3331	0.3331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.8880	0.7598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2533

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	1.154	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.253	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.400	-0.343	-0.400
predicted_R	0.641	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	1.000	-0.641	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.250	-0.493	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.718	0.000	0.282	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.538	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	0.718	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.798	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.539	0.001
predicted_H	0.851	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.309	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.322	-0.000
predicted_R	0.694	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.499	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	0.642	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.5000	0.2353	0.0882	0.1177	0.2353	0.1765
season	0.20	39	-	150.000	38.000	3.000	11.000	19.000	25.000	21.000	28.000	0.2533	0.3430	0.4933	0.2533	0.0733	0.1267	0.1400	0.1867

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0390
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7650
predicted_AVG	0.2262
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3080
predicted_OBP	0.3218
predicted_R	0.7320
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.4832
predicted_SO	0.5880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0390	0.0547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.7650	3.7984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2262	0.2261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5380	0.5400	0.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8520	0.8512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3080	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3218	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.7320	0.6944	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4990	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4832	0.4831	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7180	0.5880	0.6417	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 28

All-history rows before 20260512: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	1.000	-0.036	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.036	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.036	4.000	0.964	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.607	1.000	0.393	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.250	-0.049	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.750	-0.009	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.893	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.893	1.000	0.107	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.036	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.078	0.042
predicted_AB	3.071	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	-0.022
predicted_H	0.609	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.846	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.444)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.3571	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2069	0.2812	0.3103	0.2069	0.1035	0.1035	0.2414
season	0.20	28	-	85.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	11.000	11.000	25.000	0.2000	0.2990	0.2588	0.2000	0.0824	0.1294	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.1130
predicted_AB	3.0990
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.3540
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3005
predicted_R	0.2130
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3385
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.0800	0.0921	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.1130	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0360	3.0990	3.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.3540	0.3715	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6730	0.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3005	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.2130	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2920	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3385	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	0.8080	0.8462	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 25

All-history rows before 20260512: 25

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2907

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.440	4.000	0.560	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.250	-0.041	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.250	-0.057	0.000
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	1.000	-0.280	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.250	-0.134	0.000
predicted_SO	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.560	1.000	-0.560	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.440	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.560	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.361	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.034	0.034
predicted_H	0.975	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.319	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.162	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.597	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2903	0.2903	0.2903	0.2903	0.0000	0.0323	0.1613
season	0.20	25	-	86.000	25.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	7.000	14.000	0.2907	0.3068	0.3837	0.2907	0.0116	0.0814	0.1628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2950
predicted_AVG	0.3155
predicted_BB	0.0630
predicted_H	1.0390
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3335
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.1720
predicted_SLG	0.3676
predicted_SO	0.6280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0680	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4400	3.2950	3.3613	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3155	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0630	0.0342	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0390	0.9754	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3335	0.3337	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.3510	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1720	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3676	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5600	0.6280	0.5969	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2774

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	3.000	1.297	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.667	0.123	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.027	2.000	0.973	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	1.000	0.784	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.600	0.028	-0.200
predicted_R	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.541	2.000	0.459	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.865	3.000	3.135	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.489	1.667	0.711	-0.467
predicted_SO	1.054	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.054	1.000	-1.054	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.421	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	1.054	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.599	-0.103
predicted_AVG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.496	-0.045
predicted_H	1.157	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.242	-
predicted_HR	0.167	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.421	-0.000
predicted_R	0.530	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.777	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.510	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.986	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4545	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.4054	0.4651	0.5135	0.4054	0.0270	0.2162	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	38.000	5.000	8.000	32.000	20.000	20.000	39.000	0.2774	0.3720	0.4891	0.2774	0.0584	0.2336	0.1460	0.2847

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5260
predicted_AVG	0.3235
predicted_BB	0.4640
predicted_H	1.1410
predicted_HBP	0.2420
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.4207
predicted_R	0.5220
predicted_RBI	0.7680
predicted_SLG	0.5097
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1600	0.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.5260	3.5995	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3235	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.4640	0.4960	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.1410	1.1572	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2420	0.2420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1640	0.1665	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4210	0.4207	0.4208	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.5220	0.5299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.7680	0.7771	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5097	0.5098	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0540	0.9380	0.9862	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.1300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1304

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.065	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.132	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.130	0.000	0.203	0.333
predicted_BB	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.484	0.000	0.516	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.167	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.185	0.000	0.315	0.500
predicted_R	0.258	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.258	0.000	0.742	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.176	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.000	0.116	0.333
predicted_SO	0.742	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	0.000	-0.742	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.132	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.167	-
predicted_R	0.258	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.176	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.680	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.132	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.030
predicted_H	0.461	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.167	-0.000
predicted_R	0.203	-0.055
predicted_RBI	0.362	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.176	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0833	0.1316	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.1304	0.1855	0.2174	0.1304	0.0174	0.0956	0.0522	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.1323
predicted_BB	0.1410
predicted_H	0.4840
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.1668
predicted_R	0.1610
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.1756
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0650	0.0440	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0080	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.6570	3.6799	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1320	0.1323	0.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1410	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4840	0.4607	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1670	0.1668	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2580	0.1610	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3780	0.3616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1760	0.1756	0.1758	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.5680	0.6432	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.929	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.929	2.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.500	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	0.929	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.500	0.159	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.418	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.500	0.860	0.750
predicted_SO	0.643	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.929	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.418	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.023	0.094
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	0.022
predicted_H	0.769	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.341	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.418	0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.4615	0.2308	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3077	0.3793	0.4231	0.3077	0.0385	0.2692	0.1154	0.1923
season	0.20	14	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2927	0.3409	0.3902	0.2927	0.0244	0.1951	0.0732	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.1250
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3198
predicted_R	0.3230
predicted_RBI	0.5980
predicted_SLG	0.4180
predicted_SO	0.6200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0690	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9290	3.1250	3.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2610	0.2365	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8110	0.7688	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1390	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3198	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3230	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5980	0.5678	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4180	0.4180	0.4180	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.6200	0.6320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.299	0.250	-0.049	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.000	-0.097	0.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	0.250	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.678	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.287	0.037
predicted_H	0.804	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.570	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.2703	0.2162	0.0000	0.0270	0.0811	0.2162
season	0.20	20	-	72.000	18.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	12.000	5.000	15.000	0.2500	0.2987	0.3472	0.2500	0.0139	0.0972	0.0694	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7460
predicted_AVG	0.2271
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2905
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.2720
predicted_SLG	0.3140
predicted_SO	0.9360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1950	0.1973	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7460	3.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2271	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3200	0.2872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8510	0.8037	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0410	0.0405	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2905	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5440	0.5702	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2720	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3140	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9360	0.8489	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Shane McClanahan (663556) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	1.429	0.000	-0.429	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	3.286	2.000	-1.286	0.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	4.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.786	5.200	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_SO	4.857	4.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	6.000	20.000	7.000	25.000	1.000	2.0769	1.0385	0.2308	0.7692	0.2692	0.9615	0.0385
last_10	0.35	7	34.200	10.000	23.000	14.000	34.000	1.000	2.5962	1.0673	0.2885	0.6635	0.4038	0.9808	0.0289
season	0.20	7	34.200	10.000	23.000	14.000	34.000	1.000	2.5962	1.0673	0.2885	0.6635	0.4038	0.9808	0.0289

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6750
predicted_ER	1.6870
predicted_ERA	3.0309
predicted_H	4.1360
predicted_HR	0.3740
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8220
predicted_WHIP	1.1602

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6750	1.8460	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.6870	1.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0309	3.0309	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.1360	3.0123	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3740	0.7033	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.8220	4.9156	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1602	1.1602	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	69
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	47
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	663556
playerID	663556
playerName	Shane McClanahan
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 7

All-history rows before 20260512: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.743	1.000	0.457	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.286	3.000	-1.286	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	1.8461
last_10	0.35	7	5.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	4.7647	1.7647	0.5294	1.0588	0.7059	1.5882
season	0.20	7	5.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	4.7647	1.7647	0.5294	1.0588	0.7059	1.5882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6220
predicted_ER	0.6660
predicted_ERA	3.9218
predicted_H	1.3930
predicted_HR	0.1600
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.6980
predicted_WHIP	1.3169

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6220	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6660	0.2033	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9218	3.9218	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3930	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1600	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6980	0.5182	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3169	1.3169	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.056	2.000	0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.2308	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	5.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	0.9643	0.7500	0.1071	0.5357	0.2143	1.2857	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	19.000	1.000	2.1600	0.8400	0.2400	0.6000	0.2400	1.1400	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_ER	0.3770
predicted_ERA	2.8289
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2640
predicted_WHIP	1.0488

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3840	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3770	0.1493	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8289	2.8289	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8750	0.3464	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2640	1.7086	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0488	1.0488	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	0.706	2.000	2.294	1.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	1.118	2.000	1.882	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	0.100	0.106	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.235	1.000	-1.235	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	1.0714	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	9.000	6.000	12.000	2.000	2.6129	1.4516	0.2903	0.8710	0.5806	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	16	18.000	7.000	14.000	8.000	21.000	2.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.7778	0.4444	1.1667	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4240
predicted_ER	0.4270
predicted_ERA	3.8418
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9860
predicted_WHIP	1.3655

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4240	0.1712	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.4270	1.9611	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8418	3.8418	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9410	2.1686	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1530	0.6580	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9860	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3655	1.3655	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.100	0.106	-0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	1.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.7297	0.6486	0.0811	0.4865	0.1622	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	17	18.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	3.0000	0.7778	0.3333	0.5556	0.2222	0.7778	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_ER	0.3260
predicted_ERA	2.8010
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8760
predicted_WHIP	1.0703

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2770	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3260	0.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8010	2.8010	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8450	0.9374	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8760	1.5462	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0703	1.0703	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.188	0.000	-0.188	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	0.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	1.000	-1.119	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_ER	0.2020
predicted_ERA	2.5377
predicted_H	0.5170
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6600
predicted_WHIP	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2330	0.0974	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2020	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5377	2.5377	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5170	0.7981	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6600	1.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0460	1.0460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: TOR

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 14

All-history rows before 20260512: 14

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): 0.0139

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.000	0.050	0.250
predicted_R	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_SO	0.864	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	2.000	1.071	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.222	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.648	0.103
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.041	0.041
predicted_H	0.722	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000
predicted_SO	1.001	0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1579	0.1579	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.1053	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	12.000	0.2162	0.2162	0.3243	0.2162	0.0270	0.0541	0.3243
season	0.20	22	-	78.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	0.2179	0.2179	0.3205	0.2180	0.0128	0.0769	0.2436

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7380
predicted_AVG	0.2052
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_H	0.7670
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.2221
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.3490
predicted_SLG	0.3404
predicted_SO	1.1200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.1090	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.7380	3.6480	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2052	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0770	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7670	0.7218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1290	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2220	0.2221	0.2221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.4380	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3490	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3404	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	1.1200	1.0006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Myles Straw (664702) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.938	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.938	3.000	1.062	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.333	-0.048	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.333	-0.132	-0.083
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.333	-0.154	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.938	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.481	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.088	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	0.015
predicted_H	0.907	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.569	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.481	0.000
predicted_SO	0.458	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.6429	0.3571	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	0.2903	0.3784	0.4516	0.2903	0.0323	0.0968	0.1613	0.1290
season	0.20	16	-	47.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	0.2979	0.3818	0.4043	0.2979	0.0213	0.0638	0.1489	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2380
predicted_AVG	0.2945
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.3800
predicted_R	0.5130
predicted_RBI	0.3750
predicted_SLG	0.4811
predicted_SO	0.5400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1870	0.1561	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9380	3.2380	3.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2945	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.4680	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9540	0.9071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3800	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.5130	0.5689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3750	0.3575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4810	0.4811	0.4811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.5400	0.4576	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664702
playerID	664702
playerName	Myles Straw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 22

All-history rows before 20260512: 22

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1905

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	4.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.060	0.250
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	0.909	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_R	0.227	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.227	0.000	0.773	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	2.000	0.136	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.227	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.854	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.339	-0.070
predicted_H	0.743	-0.017
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.253	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.187	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.795	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.238)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.2571	0.2000	0.0000	0.0286	0.0857	0.1429
season	0.20	22	-	84.000	16.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	19.000	0.1905	0.2766	0.3214	0.1905	0.0238	0.0714	0.1071	0.2262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7910
predicted_AVG	0.1922
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2557
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.2807
predicted_SO	0.7390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.2000	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	3.7910	3.8539	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1922	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.2810	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.7290	0.7430	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0416	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2557	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2270	0.2750	0.2533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1840	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2807	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	0.7390	0.7955	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	2.000	-1.111
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	0.667
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.333	0.011
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.000	-0.482
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	0.049
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.207	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.062
predicted_H	0.824	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.603	0.083
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000
predicted_SO	0.899	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.2667	0.2000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	0.2903	0.3889	0.6129	0.2903	0.0968	0.2581	0.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	18	-	56.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	6.000	18.000	0.2500	0.3226	0.4821	0.2500	0.0714	0.1786	0.1071	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2990
predicted_AVG	0.2829
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3697
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.6810
predicted_SLG	0.5202
predicted_SO	0.8020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.1510	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.2990	3.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2829	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4540	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9330	0.8242	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2080	0.1846	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5860	0.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6810	0.6025	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5202	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8020	0.8986	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Davis Schneider (676914) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

System season_avg: 0.1160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1163

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.688	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.688	2.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.141	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.116	0.000	-0.116	0.000
predicted_BB	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.688	1.000	0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.333	-0.046	-0.083
predicted_R	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.163	0.000	-0.163	0.000
predicted_SO	1.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	2.000	-0.188	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.141	-
predicted_BB	0.688	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.754	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.141	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.738	0.050
predicted_H	0.353	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.309	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.342	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	1.191	0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	0.1000	0.4000	0.2000	0.1000	0.2000	0.5000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	-	24.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	12.000	0.0417	0.2812	0.0833	0.0417	0.0833	0.3333	0.5000
season	0.20	16	-	43.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	19.000	0.1163	0.2963	0.1628	0.1163	0.1163	0.2558	0.4419

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	2.8210
predicted_AVG	0.1405
predicted_BB	0.7880
predicted_H	0.3960
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3262
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.2385
predicted_SO	1.1940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1730	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6880	2.8210	2.7544	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1410	0.1405	0.1408	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6880	0.7880	0.7379	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.3960	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3262	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3070	0.3095	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3840	0.3419	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.1940	1.1910	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.116

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676914
playerID	676914
playerName	Davis Schneider
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	4.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	0.057	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.250	-0.072	0.000
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	0.000	2.743	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.250	0.614	0.750
predicted_SO	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	1.000	0.257	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.343	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.818	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.367	-0.000
predicted_R	0.604	0.090
predicted_RBI	0.172	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.293 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.3684	0.3684	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3488	0.4250	0.3000	0.0250	0.0500	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	18.000	12.000	26.000	0.2500	0.3219	0.3864	0.2500	0.0303	0.0682	0.0909	0.1970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8530
predicted_AVG	0.3077
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3668
predicted_R	0.6700
predicted_RBI	0.1810
predicted_SLG	0.3923
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1160	0.1392	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.8530	3.8184	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3430	0.3430	0.3430	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.1860	1.1202	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0680	0.0646	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3668	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.6700	0.6042	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1810	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3923	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.8000	0.7759	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2483

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	0.275	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.002	0.000
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	1.000	0.075	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.079	0.000
predicted_R	0.525	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.525	1.000	0.475	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.250	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	1.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.357	-
predicted_R	0.525	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.517	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.094
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.734	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	-0.018
predicted_H	1.041	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.198	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.357	0.000
predicted_R	0.555	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.715	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.517	0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	9.000	5.000	10.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.7692	0.3333	0.1282	0.2821	0.1282	0.2564
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	37.000	4.000	10.000	26.000	21.000	18.000	48.000	0.2483	0.3293	0.4765	0.2483	0.0671	0.1745	0.1208	0.3221

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7410
predicted_AVG	0.2842
predicted_BB	0.4200
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3573
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.7320
predicted_SLG	0.5175
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.2600	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.7410	3.7344	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.4200	0.4324	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0630	1.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2030	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3570	0.3573	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5250	0.5770	0.5555	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7320	0.7146	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5170	0.5175	0.5173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	0.9340	1.0442	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2901

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.050	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.050	4.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	-0.040	0.250
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.175	0.000	-0.175	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.000	-0.060	0.250
predicted_R	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.000	-0.157	0.250
predicted_SO	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.050	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	0.300	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.142
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.990	-0.060
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.126	0.001
predicted_H	1.059	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.427	0.077
predicted_RBI	0.428	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.400	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.373	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.050

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2564	0.2857	0.3333	0.2564	0.0256	0.0769	0.0513	0.0769
season	0.20	40	-	162.000	47.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	14.000	5.000	12.000	0.2901	0.3095	0.4074	0.2901	0.0123	0.0741	0.0309	0.0741

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9480
predicted_AVG	0.2769
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.2982
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3998
predicted_SO	0.4250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3250	0.0820	0.1826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0500	3.9480	3.9902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2769	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1260	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0930	1.0586	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1330	0.1276	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2982	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.4810	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4400	0.4276	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.3998	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3000	0.4250	0.3732	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3020

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.725	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.725	4.000	0.275
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	-0.302
predicted_BB	0.475	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	0.000	-0.475
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	0.000	-1.125
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.000	-0.388
predicted_R	0.575	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.575	0.000	-0.575
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.425	0.000	-0.425
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.725	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.210	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.797	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.429	-0.046
predicted_H	0.650	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.000
predicted_SO	0.509	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, weight=0.169, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1250
season	0.20	40	-	149.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	17.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	0.3020	0.3882	0.3893	0.3020	0.0134	0.1141	0.1275	0.1342

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8470
predicted_AVG	0.1729
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2523
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.2103
predicted_SO	0.5150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.0580	0.1064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7250	3.8470	3.7966	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1729	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.3960	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6650	0.6505	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0270	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2523	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.4730	0.5152	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2810	0.2765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2100	0.2103	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5150	0.5088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Patrick Corbin (571578) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 6

All-history rows before 20260512: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.500	2.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_H	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_H	4.833	5.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	4.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.767	5.100	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	3.500	1.000	-0.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.000	8.000	23.000	8.000	18.000	1.000	2.7692	1.1923	0.3077	0.8846	0.3077	0.6923	0.0385
last_10	0.35	6	30.000	12.000	29.000	9.000	21.000	3.000	3.6000	1.2667	0.4000	0.9667	0.3000	0.7000	0.1000
season	0.20	6	30.000	12.000	29.000	9.000	21.000	3.000	3.6000	1.2667	0.4000	0.9667	0.3000	0.7000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6530
predicted_ER	1.8760
predicted_ERA	3.4777
predicted_H	4.4460
predicted_HR	0.4070
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.9490
predicted_WHIP	1.2563

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.6530	1.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.8760	2.4852	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4777	3.4777	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.4460	4.7463	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4070	0.7284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.9490	3.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2563	1.2563	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	3
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	61
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	37
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	571578
playerID	571578
playerName	Patrick Corbin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	1.222	1.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	1.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.861	1.000	0.339	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.667	1.000	-1.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	14.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	8.0000	2.1111	0.8889	1.5556	0.5556	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	16.200	10.000	22.000	7.000	30.000	2.000	5.4000	1.7400	0.6000	1.3200	0.4200	1.8000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_ER	0.6840
predicted_ERA	4.3916
predicted_H	1.5450
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5420
predicted_WHIP	1.4429

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4770	0.7929	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6840	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3916	4.3916	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5450	1.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5420	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4429	1.4429	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	1.000	1.650	1.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	1.000	0.115	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.7143	1.0714	0.8571	0.6429	0.4286	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	5.4000	1.4000	0.6000	0.7000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	21.200	7.000	15.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.9077	1.0615	0.3231	0.6923	0.3692	0.9231	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	5.0033
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9080
predicted_WHIP	1.2578

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4420	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5560	1.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0033	5.0033	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8160	1.4991	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0730	0.6078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9080	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2578	1.2578	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_H	0.737	0.000	1.263	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.526	0.000	-1.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.9643	1.1786	0.1071	0.7500	0.4286	1.5000
season	0.20	19	19.200	1.000	14.000	7.000	29.000	0.4576	1.0678	0.0508	0.7119	0.3559	1.4746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.5418
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1510
predicted_WHIP	1.2276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4380	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5418	2.5418	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7900	1.5004	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1510	0.4752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2276	1.2276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.46
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	3.000	-0.833	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	1.6154	0.0000	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	4.0000	1.1111	0.4444	1.0000	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	18	17.200	4.000	15.000	4.000	10.000	2.0377	1.0755	0.2264	0.8491	0.2264	0.5660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.4850
predicted_ERA	4.3661
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.3251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4850	0.1949	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3661	4.3661	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0670	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8610	0.9441	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3251	1.3251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 21

All-history rows before 20260512: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.510	1.000	-0.310	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	0.905	0.000	1.095	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.5454	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	3.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.7500	0.4500	1.2000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	14.200	7.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.8182	0.4773	1.2954	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_ER	0.2580
predicted_ERA	3.4875
predicted_H	0.5610
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6600
predicted_WHIP	1.1750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2230	0.0854	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2580	0.7157	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4875	3.4875	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5610	0.8318	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6600	1.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1750	1.1750	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260511_TB@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

20260512_WAS@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.68, "home_win_probability": 0.31999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.68, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 3 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 6 - 3 CIN", "confidence": 0.68, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": true, "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "simulation_score_matches_prediction": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 3 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "WAS 6 - 1 CIN", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "advisory_box_score_draw", "final_prediction_source": "pre_simulation_target"}}

Game-Level Prediction Audit

Layer	Score	Winner	Confidence	Source or usage	Synced or matches
Shipped prediction	WAS 6 - 3 CIN	WAS	0.680	enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target	True
Simulation draw	WAS 6 - 1 CIN	WAS	-	advisory_box_score_draw	False

The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.

Team Form Snapshot

Team	Last-10 W-L	Win %	R/G	RA/G	Run Diff	Streak	Offense	Defense
Away WAS	5-5	0.500	4.70	4.90	-2	2L	average	average
Home CIN	2-8	0.200	3.10	6.10	-30	2W	cold	weak

Recent Head-to-Head

Date	Matchup	Score	Winner	Margin	Type
-	-	-	-	-	-

Player/Game Reconciliation

Layer	AB	H	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Game target WAS	-	-	6	-	-	-	-
Game target CIN	-	-	3	-	-	-	-
Player finalized WAS	34	9	6	0	4	1	9
Player finalized CIN	32	9	2	0	3	1	9
Player model fractional WAS	32.84	7.90	4.91	0.94	4.75	2.97	7.59
Player model fractional CIN	32.20	7.02	3.54	1.02	3.28	3.60	8.18
Simulation box WAS	36	9	6	1	6	6	7
Simulation box CIN	31	4	1	1	1	1	4

If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.

Pitching Snapshot

Team	Role	Pitcher	Pre IP	Pre ER	Pre SO	Pre H	Pre BB	Weighted ERA	Weighted WHIP	Box Sync
Away WAS	Starter	Miles Mikolas	5.20	0	2	3	1	4.93	1.24	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	PJ Poulin	1.10	0	0	0	0	2.98	1.26	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Brad Lord	1	1	0	1	0	3.58	1.24	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Gus Varland	1	0	2	0	0	4.94	1.40	True
Away WAS	Middle Reliever	Richard Lovelady	1	0	3	0	0	2.80	1.43	-
Home CIN	Starter	Brady Singer	2.20	5	1	8	2	4.70	1.44	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Brock Burke	1.10	1	1	1	2	5.34	1.68	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Graham Ashcraft	1.10	0	2	0	0	3.37	1.26	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Pierce Johnson	1	0	1	0	0	4.22	1.32	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Tony Santillan	1	0	0	0	1	4.98	1.49	True
Home CIN	Middle Reliever	Connor Phillips	0.20	0	0	0	0	5.74	1.49	True
Home CIN	Reliever	Tejay Antone	-	-	-	-	-	4.07	1.22	-

Market-line comparison is not rendered because no local odds or sportsbook line CSV was found in data/. Add a real odds source before using market deltas as a model feature.

Away Team: WAS

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.257	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.257	1.000	-0.257	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.123	0.333
predicted_BB	0.514	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	2.000	0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.686	0.000	0.314	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.667	0.179	-0.167
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.237	0.000	0.096	0.333
predicted_SO	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	0.000	0.257	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.257	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	0.001
predicted_3B	0.082	0.053
predicted_AB	3.101	-0.156
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	0.023
predicted_H	0.610	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.1538	0.2941	0.3077	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3714	0.3214	0.2500	0.1429	0.2143	0.1786
season	0.20	35	-	114.000	24.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	18.000	26.000	0.2105	0.3209	0.2368	0.2105	0.1228	0.1579	0.2281

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.1210
predicted_AB	2.9840
predicted_AVG	0.2071
predicted_BB	0.5540
predicted_H	0.6180
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3227
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.4190
predicted_SLG	0.3160
predicted_SO	0.7240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0300	0.0296	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1210	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2570	2.9840	3.1006	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2071	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.5540	0.5369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6180	0.6103	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3227	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2560	0.3299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4190	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3160	0.3160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.7240	0.7321	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 0

All-history rows before 20260512: 0

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.3020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.690	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.731	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.567	-0.125
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	0.101
predicted_H	0.740	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.065	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.605	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.235	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.311	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.0882	0.1471	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	29.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	5.000	24.000	0.3021	0.3431	0.4271	0.3021	0.0312	0.1250	0.0521	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3222
predicted_R	0.5040
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.3106
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0820	0.0967	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.4660	3.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.3750	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7810	0.7404	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3222	0.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7310	0.5040	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2480	0.2355	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3106	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.9840	0.9568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 39

All-history rows before 20260512: 39

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	0.974	1.000
predicted_AB	3.641	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	4.000	-0.641	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	0.378	0.667
predicted_BB	0.462	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	1.538	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	0.000	0.949	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.000	0.413	0.800
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.551	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.000	0.798	1.333
predicted_SO	0.795	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	3.000	-0.795	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	1.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.551	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	0.063
predicted_3B	0.075	0.049
predicted_AB	3.808	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.082
predicted_H	1.052	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.184	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.664	0.074
predicted_RBI	1.154	0.084
predicted_SLG	0.551	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.6190	0.2857	0.0476	0.3810	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	13.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.2895	0.3571	0.5526	0.2895	0.0526	0.3421	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	41.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	23.000	18.000	31.000	0.2887	0.3869	0.5352	0.2887	0.0634	0.2535	0.1268	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2610
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.2811
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	1.1030
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3395
predicted_R	0.7160
predicted_RBI	1.2130
predicted_SLG	0.5511
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2610	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1090	0.0746	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.9260	3.8080	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2811	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.3230	0.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1030	1.0521	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1940	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.7160	0.6638	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0700	1.2130	1.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5510	0.5511	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.9430	0.8817	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 40

All-history rows before 20260512: 40

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2532

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	4.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.500	-0.253	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	-0.124	-0.300
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.750	-0.380	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.716	-0.234
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.008
predicted_H	0.900	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	-0.059

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.228 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2941	0.3810	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.2059	0.3000	0.3235	0.2059	0.0000	0.0294	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	40.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	24.000	16.000	32.000	0.2532	0.3239	0.3797	0.2532	0.0190	0.0949	0.1013	0.2025

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5520
predicted_AVG	0.2535
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	0.9000
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3361
predicted_R	0.4760
predicted_RBI	0.2340
predicted_SLG	0.3774
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.3520	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	3.5520	3.7158	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2535	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3860	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3361	0.3361	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4760	0.5270	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2340	0.2324	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3774	0.3772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.6990	0.7406	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 32

All-history rows before 20260512: 32

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2197

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.125	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.125	4.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.280	0.500
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.906	0.000	1.094	2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.325	0.600
predicted_R	0.469	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	0.000	0.531	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	1.000	1.438	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.871	1.250
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	0.000	-0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.125	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.046
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.011	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.028
predicted_H	0.895	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.179	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.018
predicted_RBI	0.741	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	1.013	-0.237

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.125

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.5000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2439	0.3947	0.1842	0.0526	0.2368	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.20	32	-	132.000	29.000	6.000	5.000	18.000	15.000	10.000	40.000	0.2197	0.2746	0.3788	0.2197	0.0379	0.1364	0.0758	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9280
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2753
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.7340
predicted_SLG	0.4312
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.2680	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1250	3.9280	4.0115	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2630	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8840	0.8950	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1790	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2753	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.5000	0.4869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7340	0.7408	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4312	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	0.8380	1.0126	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.069	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	1.000	0.931	0.000
predicted_AB	3.621	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.621	4.000	1.379	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.057	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	2.000	0.069	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	-0.082	-0.300
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.655	1.000	-0.655	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	1.250	0.210	-0.650
predicted_SO	0.621	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	3.621	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.138	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.621	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.033
predicted_3B	0.093	0.024
predicted_AB	3.659	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.106	-0.032
predicted_H	1.099	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.509	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.469	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.300 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.5789	0.3684	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	29	-	105.000	27.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	19.000	14.000	4.000	18.000	0.2571	0.2818	0.3905	0.2571	0.0095	0.1809	0.0381	0.1714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3000
predicted_3B	0.1120
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.3016
predicted_BB	0.0810
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3186
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.5250
predicted_SLG	0.4685
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.3000	0.2740	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.1120	0.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6210	3.6890	3.6590	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3016	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1380	0.0810	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.1130	1.0985	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3186	0.3188	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.5300	0.5093	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5250	0.5184	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4685	0.4687	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6210	0.7550	0.6960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 35

All-history rows before 20260512: 35

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2180

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	4.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.262	0.000	-0.062	0.200
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	0.229	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.171	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.006
predicted_H	0.769	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.127
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.000
predicted_SO	0.722	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.800

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.1842	0.2250	0.2632	0.1842	0.0263	0.0790	0.0263	0.2368
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	29.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	6.000	27.000	0.2180	0.2624	0.3158	0.2180	0.0226	0.1203	0.0451	0.2030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2101
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2678
predicted_R	0.6770
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.3340
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0510	0.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.8000	3.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2101	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1710	0.1810	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7980	0.7692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1346	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2678	0.2679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.6770	0.5837	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3930	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3340	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.6850	0.7215	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2436

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.268	1.000	-0.268	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.900	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.805	4.000	1.195	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	-0.044	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.854	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.854	0.000	-0.854	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.250	-0.192	-0.050
predicted_R	0.854	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.854	0.000	0.146	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.683	0.000	-0.683	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.535	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.526	0.500	-0.326	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.463	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.463	0.000	0.537	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.854	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.854	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.535	-
predicted_SO	1.463	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.363	0.095
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.777	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.734	-0.120
predicted_H	1.054	-0.036
predicted_HBP	0.127	-
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.401	-0.000
predicted_R	0.797	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.550	-0.020
predicted_SLG	0.535	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.212	-0.251

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.900

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4783	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3488	0.4324	0.2432	0.0270	0.1081	0.1351	0.3243
season	0.20	41	-	156.000	38.000	11.000	11.000	28.000	35.000	35.000	60.000	0.2436	0.3918	0.5256	0.2436	0.0705	0.1795	0.2244	0.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4290
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6930
predicted_AVG	0.2785
predicted_BB	0.6520
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.1270
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.4009
predicted_R	0.7580
predicted_RBI	0.5370
predicted_SLG	0.5348
predicted_SO	1.0400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2680	0.4290	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9000	3.6930	3.7772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2785	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8540	0.6520	0.7341	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0290	1.0538	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1270	0.1270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1710	0.1747	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4009	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8540	0.7580	0.7970	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5370	0.5504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5350	0.5348	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4630	1.0400	1.2120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 21

All-history rows before 20260512: 21

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2029

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	0.476	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.048	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.380	0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.399	0.113
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.019
predicted_H	0.781	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.411	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.527	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.6471	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2353	0.2353	0.4706	0.2353	0.0294	0.1471	0.0000	0.2059
season	0.20	21	-	69.000	14.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	7.000	1.000	12.000	0.2029	0.2222	0.3913	0.2029	0.0290	0.1594	0.0145	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4230
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.2520
predicted_BB	0.0840
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.2728
predicted_R	0.4810
predicted_RBI	0.5960
predicted_SLG	0.4932
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.4230	0.3803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.5010	3.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2520	0.2520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0480	0.0840	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8820	0.7815	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1380	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4810	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5960	0.5268	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4932	0.4931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.6920	0.6346	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Miles Mikolas (571945) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	1.375	0.000	-0.375	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	3.375	2.000	-3.375	-2.000
predicted_H	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_H	4.875	3.000	-1.875	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	5.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.938	5.100	1.263	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	2.750	3.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	20.100	10.000	17.000	4.000	11.000	4.000	4.4262	1.0328	0.4918	0.8361	0.1967	0.5410	0.1967
last_10	0.35	8	32.200	27.000	39.000	11.000	22.000	9.000	7.4388	1.5306	0.8265	1.1939	0.3367	0.6735	0.2755
season	0.20	8	32.200	27.000	39.000	11.000	22.000	9.000	7.4388	1.5306	0.8265	1.1939	0.3367	0.6735	0.2755

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3690
predicted_ER	2.5410
predicted_ERA	4.9267
predicted_H	4.3910
predicted_HR	0.8620
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.3750
predicted_WHIP	1.2411

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.3690	1.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.5410	1.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9267	4.9267	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.3910	3.6781	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8620	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	4.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.3750	2.6703	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2411	1.2411	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	12
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	74
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	571945
playerID	571945
playerName	Miles Mikolas
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	0.100	0.325	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	2.0000	1.2222	0.2222	0.7778	0.4444	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	20	19.000	7.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	3.000	3.3158	1.3684	0.3684	0.7895	0.5789	0.7368	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.3930
predicted_ERA	2.9755
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1110
predicted_WHIP	1.2619

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5450	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3930	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9755	2.9755	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9560	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1110	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2619	1.2619	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 12

All-history rows before 20260512: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.917	1.200	-0.917	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.000	9.000	19.000	5.000	14.000	3.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.9500	0.2500	0.7000	0.1500
season	0.20	12	25.100	10.000	24.000	6.000	18.000	3.000	3.5526	1.1842	0.3947	0.9474	0.2368	0.7105	0.1184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_ER	0.5970
predicted_ERA	3.5777
predicted_H	1.4120
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.2190
predicted_WHIP	1.2447

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4570	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5970	0.8229	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5777	3.5777	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4120	1.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1530	0.6277	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2190	0.5358	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2447	1.2447	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 16

All-history rows before 20260512: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.312	2.000	-0.312	-2.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.500	3.000	-0.500	-3.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	1.125	2.000	-1.125	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.762	0.100	0.238	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	0.938	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	7.7143	1.5000	0.8571	1.0714	0.4286	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	12.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	1.3333	0.2222	1.1111	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.000	8.000	18.000	5.000	17.000	1.000	4.8000	1.5333	0.5333	1.2000	0.3333	1.1333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3650
predicted_ER	0.5480
predicted_ERA	4.9364
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0100
predicted_WHIP	1.3977

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3650	0.1407	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5480	0.2112	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9364	4.9364	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0330	0.3981	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0100	1.6185	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3977	1.3977	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 9

All-history rows before 20260512: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	3.000	Pitching_SO	1.222	3.000	1.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	0.8710	1.5484	0.0968	0.7742	0.7742	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	15	17.000	4.000	16.000	12.000	17.000	1.000	2.1176	1.6471	0.2353	0.9412	0.7059	1.0000	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5390
predicted_ER	0.3110
predicted_ERA	2.7962
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0560
predicted_WHIP	1.4301

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5390	0.2145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3110	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7962	2.7962	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8910	0.3545	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0810	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0560	2.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4301	1.4301	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: CIN

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 13

All-history rows before 20260512: 13

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	1.000	-0.077	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.231	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	2.000	-0.231	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.262	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	2.000	0.308	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	1.000	-0.846	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.750	-0.142	-0.500
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	1.000	-0.538	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	2.000	-0.692	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.643	1.500	-0.643	-1.500
predicted_SO	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.692	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.538	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	0.016
predicted_3B	0.086	0.009
predicted_AB	3.426	0.195
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.627	-0.065
predicted_H	0.797	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.490	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.581	0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3889	0.2222	0.0000	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.6111	0.2500	0.0833	0.2222	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	13	-	42.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.2619	0.3922	0.6429	0.2619	0.0952	0.2143	0.2143	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0950
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2415
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3443
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.6710
predicted_SLG	0.4720
predicted_SO	0.6260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1870	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0950	0.0859	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.6270	3.4264	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2415	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6920	0.5600	0.6269	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8760	0.7970	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1530	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3443	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.4400	0.4896	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6710	0.6097	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4720	0.4720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5380	0.6260	0.5814	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2883

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.976	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.976	4.000	0.024	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.750	0.212	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.146	3.000	0.854	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	0.756	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.750	0.146	-0.250
predicted_R	0.707	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.707	2.000	0.293	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.707	0.000	0.293	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.521	0.750	0.729	0.500
predicted_SO	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.220	0.000	-0.220	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.976	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.707	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	1.220	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	0.062
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.998	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.123
predicted_H	1.283	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.547	-0.160
predicted_RBI	0.634	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.101	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.321 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.976

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3810	0.3810	0.4762	0.3810	0.0000	0.1905	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3488	0.3846	0.3077	0.0000	0.1282	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	41	-	163.000	47.000	8.000	10.000	29.000	29.000	17.000	50.000	0.2883	0.3536	0.5215	0.2883	0.0614	0.1779	0.1043	0.3068

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0140
predicted_AVG	0.3236
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	1.2990
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3559
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.6430
predicted_SLG	0.4449
predicted_SO	1.0180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.3010	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9760	4.0140	3.9984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3236	0.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.2070	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.2990	1.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0600	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3559	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7070	0.4360	0.5471	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6430	0.6336	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4449	0.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2200	1.0180	1.1008	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 29

All-history rows before 20260512: 29

System season_avg: 0.1770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1771

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.310	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.310	4.000	-0.310	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.177	0.250	-0.177	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.586	1.000	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.279	0.250	-0.279	-0.250
predicted_R	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.250	-0.271	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.138	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.138	1.000	-1.138	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.310	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.138	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	1.138	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.471	0.161
predicted_AVG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.067
predicted_H	0.621	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.145	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.211	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.153	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.091)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.2500	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.20	29	-	96.000	17.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	33.000	0.1771	0.2793	0.2708	0.1771	0.0208	0.0729	0.1458	0.3438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5970
predicted_AVG	0.1925
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	0.6920
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2682
predicted_R	0.1500
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.2546
predicted_SO	1.1650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.1090	0.1064	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3100	3.5970	3.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1925	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.3640	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6920	0.6207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2682	0.2681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1380	0.1500	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2350	0.2108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1380	1.1650	1.1531	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.177

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 34

All-history rows before 20260512: 34

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1894

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	2.000	0.118	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.150	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	-0.353	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.735	0.000	-0.735	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.229	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.333	-0.272	-0.333
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	0.941	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	1.000	-0.941	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.150	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.229	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.789	-0.211
predicted_AVG	0.150	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	-0.020
predicted_H	0.568	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.058	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.229	-0.000
predicted_R	0.369	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.172	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.942	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.142 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, weight=0.145, BvP AVG=0.353)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0588	0.1579	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2500	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.2432
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	25.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	12.000	32.000	0.1894	0.2721	0.2803	0.1894	0.0152	0.0530	0.0909	0.2424

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.1498
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_H	0.5450
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2287
predicted_R	0.3380
predicted_RBI	0.1660
predicted_SLG	0.2297
predicted_SO	0.9420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1140	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.6350	3.7889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1500	0.1498	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3180	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.5450	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0570	0.0583	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2290	0.2287	0.2288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3380	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1660	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.9420	0.9416	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 41

All-history rows before 20260512: 41

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2452

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.780	4.000	0.220	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.005	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.261	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	-0.078	0.000
predicted_R	0.561	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.561	1.000	-0.561	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.732	0.000	-0.732	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.484	0.500	-0.234	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.829	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	2.000	0.171	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.488	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.261	-
predicted_R	0.561	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.888	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	-0.087
predicted_H	0.754	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.160	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.261	-0.000
predicted_R	0.519	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.296	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.899	0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1463	0.1860	0.2439	0.1463	0.0244	0.0244	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.20	41	-	155.000	38.000	7.000	10.000	30.000	23.000	20.000	34.000	0.2452	0.3277	0.4839	0.2452	0.0645	0.1935	0.1290	0.2193

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9630
predicted_AVG	0.1981
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_H	0.7850
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.2609
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.3669
predicted_SO	0.9480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1630	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.9630	3.8877	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1981	0.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4880	0.3410	0.4014	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7850	0.7542	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1670	0.1600	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2610	0.2609	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5610	0.4900	0.5192	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3080	0.2965	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3669	0.3669	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	0.9480	0.8991	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 38

All-history rows before 20260512: 38

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2406

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.200	-0.241	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.842	1.000	-0.842	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.200	-0.315	-0.200
predicted_R	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.800	-0.444	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.921	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.921	0.000	-0.921	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.921	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.671	0.171
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.012
predicted_H	0.857	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.811	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5000	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2703	0.3250	0.4324	0.2703	0.0541	0.0811	0.0811	0.1892
season	0.20	38	-	133.000	32.000	6.000	7.000	13.000	15.000	12.000	35.000	0.2406	0.3154	0.4436	0.2406	0.0526	0.0977	0.0902	0.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7960
predicted_AVG	0.2347
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.3006
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.4533
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0590	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7960	3.6714	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2347	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3360	0.3276	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8910	0.8569	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2550	0.2445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3006	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.4560	0.4303	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3730	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4533	0.4532	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9210	0.7320	0.8115	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.7000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	2.789	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.789	4.000	0.211	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.000	-0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.290	0.200	-0.290	-0.200
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	2.000	-0.053	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	2.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	0.016
predicted_3B	0.032	-0.021
predicted_AB	3.004	0.215
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	0.071
predicted_H	0.602	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	0.099
predicted_RBI	0.152	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.309	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.700)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.2069	0.3611	0.3448	0.2069	0.0345	0.0345	0.2069	0.4138
season	0.20	19	-	53.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	20.000	0.1698	0.2903	0.2830	0.1698	0.0189	0.0377	0.1509	0.3774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.2090
predicted_AVG	0.2120
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3453
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.3089
predicted_SO	1.1660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.0840	0.0689	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0120	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7890	3.2090	3.0041	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2120	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.5600	0.4922	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6800	0.6020	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3453	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.5090	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1730	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3089	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	1.1660	1.1109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 31

All-history rows before 20260512: 31

System season_avg: 0.1390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1386

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.258	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.258	4.000	-0.258	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.139	0.250	-0.139	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.194	0.250	-0.194	-0.250
predicted_R	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.250	-0.228	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.613	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.613	1.000	-0.613	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.032	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.258	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.226	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.226	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.613	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.005
predicted_3B	0.034	0.002
predicted_AB	3.389	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	-0.018
predicted_H	0.662	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.247	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	0.165

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=23.0, weight=0.174, BvP AVG=0.348)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2222	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.0286	0.2857
season	0.20	31	-	101.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	19.000	0.1386	0.1944	0.2277	0.1386	0.0198	0.0297	0.0693	0.1881

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.4920
predicted_AVG	0.2124
predicted_BB	0.1940
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2556
predicted_R	0.2630
predicted_RBI	0.3100
predicted_SLG	0.3604
predicted_SO	0.9090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0320	0.0410	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0360	0.0342	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2580	3.4920	3.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2124	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2260	0.1940	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.7420	0.6616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1350	0.1195	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2556	0.2558	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2260	0.2630	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3100	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3604	0.3602	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6130	0.9090	0.7782	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.139

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 37

All-history rows before 20260512: 37

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2071

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2210

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.784	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	2.000	-0.784	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.000	0.126	0.333
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	2.000	-0.541	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.019	-0.167
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.000	0.019	0.333
predicted_SO	1.027	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.027	0.000	-0.027	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.027	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.563	-0.221
predicted_AVG	0.259	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.498	-0.043
predicted_H	0.876	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	-0.026
predicted_RBI	0.575	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	-0.221

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.5333	0.3333	0.0667	0.2667	0.2000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.2857	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	15.000	20.000	38.000	0.2071	0.3148	0.3143	0.2071	0.0214	0.0929	0.1429	0.2714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4050
predicted_AVG	0.2587
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3473
predicted_R	0.3600
predicted_RBI	0.5790
predicted_SLG	0.4016
predicted_SO	0.6490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0500	0.0966	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.4050	3.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2587	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.4670	0.4978	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8810	0.8764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1440	0.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3473	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.3600	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5790	0.5753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4016	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0270	0.6490	0.8062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brady Singer (663903) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 8

All-history rows before 20260512: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	1.250	1.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	5.000	Pitching_ER	3.000	4.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_H	8.000	8.000	8.000	Pitching_H	6.625	6.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	2.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.675	6.000	-2.475	-3.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	3.250	6.000	-2.250	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	14.000	32.000	7.000	13.000	6.000	4.7250	1.4625	0.5250	1.2000	0.2625	0.4875	0.2250
last_10	0.35	8	38.100	24.000	53.000	10.000	26.000	8.000	5.6348	1.6435	0.6261	1.3826	0.2609	0.6783	0.2087
season	0.20	8	38.100	24.000	53.000	10.000	26.000	8.000	5.6348	1.6435	0.6261	1.3826	0.2609	0.6783	0.2087

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2860
predicted_ER	2.1810
predicted_ERA	4.6988
predicted_H	4.7440
predicted_HR	0.7710
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	2.9480
predicted_WHIP	1.4435

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2860	1.6519	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.1810	3.6257	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6988	4.6988	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	4.7440	6.4127	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7710	0.3759	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.1000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.9480	1.9497	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4435	1.4435	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	8
R	5
ER	5
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.63
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663903
playerID	663903
playerName	Brady Singer
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_BB	0.579	0.000	1.421	2.000
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_H	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.342	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	10.3846	2.7692	1.1539	1.6154	1.1539	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	9.000	8.000	12.000	4.8214	1.8214	0.5357	0.9643	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	19	17.200	6.000	16.000	11.000	22.000	3.0566	1.5283	0.3396	0.9057	0.6226	1.2453

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7330
predicted_ER	0.7100
predicted_ERA	5.3400
predicted_H	1.2750
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3760
predicted_WHIP	1.6793

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.7330	1.4909	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7100	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3400	5.3400	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2750	1.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0900	0.6343	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3760	1.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6793	1.6793	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 20

All-history rows before 20260512: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	1.100	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.975	1.000	0.125	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	2.000	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.7059	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.5625	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	20	20.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	24.000	1.000	1.7419	1.2097	0.1935	0.6290	0.5806	1.1613	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6190
predicted_ER	0.4430
predicted_ERA	3.3704
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3200
predicted_WHIP	1.2564

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6190	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4430	0.1852	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3704	3.3704	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8670	0.3625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1480	0.0619	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3200	1.7157	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2564	1.2564	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 18

All-history rows before 20260512: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.694	1.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	0.8571	0.6429	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7931	1.1379	0.3103	0.7241	0.4138	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.9375	0.3125	0.9375	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_ER	0.4690
predicted_ERA	4.2180
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8830
predicted_WHIP	1.3219

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4260	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4690	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2180	4.2180	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8960	0.3510	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0548	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8830	0.9542	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3219	1.3219	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 17

All-history rows before 20260512: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_BB	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.529	4.000	-0.529	-4.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.882	4.000	-0.882	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	1.000	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	0.000	0.106	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	4.9844
predicted_H	1.0480
predicted_HR	0.2390
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.4865

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4380	0.7810	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.2159	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9844	4.9844	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0480	0.4084	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2390	0.0931	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9180	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4865	1.4865	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 19

All-history rows before 20260512: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_BB	1.105	1.000	-1.105	-1.000
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_ER	0.632	5.000	-0.632	-5.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_H	0.789	4.000	-0.789	-4.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.000	-0.705	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Pitching_SO	1.105	0.000	-1.105	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	10.5000	1.8333	1.1667	1.3333	0.5000	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	10.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	5.9062	1.5938	0.6562	0.9375	0.6562	1.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	18	20.000	10.000	15.000	17.000	21.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6000	0.5000	0.7500	0.8500	1.0500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_ER	0.5620
predicted_ERA	5.7436
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9100
predicted_WHIP	1.4902

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4310	0.1787	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5620	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7436	5.7436	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8820	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9100	0.3773	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4902	1.4902	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tejay Antone (622088) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260512: 3

All-history rows before 20260512: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_BB	-	1.000	-	Pitching_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_ER	-	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_H	-	0.000	-	Pitching_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	-	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	-	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.0000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333
last_10	0.35	3	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.0000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333
season	0.20	3	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.0000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_ER	0.1830
predicted_ERA	4.0665
predicted_H	0.3540
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4040
predicted_WHIP	1.2157

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1380	0.0376	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1830	0.0499	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0665	4.0665	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3540	0.0965	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0125	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4040	0.1101	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2157	1.2157	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	622088
playerID	622088
playerName	Tejay Antone
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7