Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260511

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260511_ARI@TEX 20260511_LAA@CLE 20260511_NYY@BAL 20260511_SEA@HOU 20260511_SF@LAD 20260511_TB@TOR

20260511_ARI@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.668097, "home_win_probability": 0.668097, "away_win_probability": 0.33190299999999995, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "confidence": 0.668097, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 2 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ARI 3 - 4 TEX", "winner": "TEX"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ARI

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 36

All-history rows before 20260511: 36

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	-0.917	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.250	-0.326	-0.250
predicted_R	0.528	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.528	1.000	-0.528	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.275	-0.142
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	0.164
predicted_H	0.733	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.188	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.542	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.349	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2143	0.4211	0.4286	0.2143	0.0714	0.0714	0.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	8.000	0.2258	0.3514	0.4516	0.2258	0.0645	0.1290	0.1613	0.2581
season	0.20	36	-	123.000	33.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	27.000	0.2683	0.3259	0.4390	0.2683	0.0488	0.1463	0.0813	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1690
predicted_AVG	0.2319
predicted_BB	0.5650
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3646
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.4309
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0690	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.1690	3.2748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2319	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.5650	0.4425	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.7350	0.7329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1860	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3646	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.5520	0.5418	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3480	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4309	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7280	0.7374	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 35

All-history rows before 20260511: 35

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	1.000	-0.057	-1.000
predicted_AB	4.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.143	3.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.333	-0.214	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	1.000	-0.886	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.500	-0.265	-0.500
predicted_R	0.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	1.000	-0.372	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	4.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	0.023
predicted_3B	0.152	0.095
predicted_AB	4.150	-0.220
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.034
predicted_H	0.808	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.466	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.619	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.399	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	-0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.370

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.4500	0.2000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.2500
season	0.20	35	-	145.000	31.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	15.000	19.000	10.000	30.000	0.2138	0.2645	0.3724	0.2138	0.0345	0.1035	0.0690	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.2210
predicted_AB	3.9910
predicted_AVG	0.1949
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_OBP	0.2396
predicted_R	0.4100
predicted_RBI	0.5970
predicted_SLG	0.3988
predicted_SO	0.7270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1540	0.1373	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.2210	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3700	3.9910	4.1496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1949	0.1949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2280	0.2523	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.7780	0.8081	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0730	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2396	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.4100	0.4657	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.5970	0.6192	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3988	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7270	0.7814	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 21

All-history rows before 20260511: 21

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.474	0.667
predicted_BB	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	0.000	0.762	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	0.905	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.238	0.000	0.512	0.750
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.619	0.000	2.381	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	2.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.000	1.679	2.000
predicted_SO	1.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.238	1.000	-0.238	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	1.238	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.506	-0.208
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000
predicted_BB	0.303	0.065
predicted_H	0.612	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.260	-0.000
predicted_R	0.242	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.381	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0714	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	0.1515	0.2368	0.2727	0.1515	0.0303	0.1212	0.1212	0.4242
season	0.20	21	-	78.000	15.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	5.000	26.000	0.1923	0.2381	0.3205	0.1923	0.0256	0.1667	0.0641	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1720
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3270
predicted_AVG	0.1791
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.5960
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2596
predicted_R	0.2040
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.2927
predicted_SO	1.1180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1720	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.3270	3.5055	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1791	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.3590	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.5960	0.6117	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0670	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2040	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.3740	0.3814	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2927	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2380	1.1180	1.1733	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 36

All-history rows before 20260511: 36

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	-0.088	0.250
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.639	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.038
predicted_AB	3.498	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.638	-0.001
predicted_H	0.513	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.570	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.0588	0.2381	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	0.1622	0.2791	0.2973	0.1622	0.0270	0.1351	0.1622	0.1351
season	0.20	36	-	123.000	27.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	23.000	19.000	0.2195	0.3378	0.3577	0.2195	0.0163	0.0894	0.1870	0.1545

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.5570
predicted_AVG	0.1469
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_H	0.5230
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.2780
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.2346
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1090	0.1216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0170	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.5570	3.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1469	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6390	0.6370	0.6378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5230	0.5133	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2780	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4190	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2680	0.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2346	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5280	0.6010	0.5703	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2182

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.4090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.000	-0.045	0.250
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	2.000	0.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.566	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	0.067
predicted_H	0.898	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.331	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.3714	0.3143	0.0857	0.1429	0.2857
season	0.20	15	-	55.000	12.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.2182	0.2951	0.2545	0.2182	0.0727	0.1091	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1180
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4700
predicted_AVG	0.2640
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_H	0.9160
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.3613
predicted_R	0.3930
predicted_RBI	0.2460
predicted_SLG	0.3321
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1180	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.4700	3.5664	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.5320	0.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9160	0.8984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3613	0.3612	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.3930	0.3313	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2460	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3321	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.8620	0.7989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.562	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.562	3.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.562	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.536	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	0.010
predicted_H	0.689	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.287	-0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.2000	0.2750	0.3429	0.2000	0.0286	0.1143	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.20	16	-	57.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	14.000	0.2105	0.2812	0.3333	0.2105	0.0175	0.1053	0.0877	0.2456

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5120
predicted_AVG	0.2118
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2866
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.4870
predicted_SLG	0.3873
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2020	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5620	3.5120	3.5362	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2118	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3320	0.3223	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7440	0.6887	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1350	0.1277	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2866	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4350	0.4365	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4870	0.4497	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3873	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9020	0.8889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 2

All-history rows before 20260511: 2

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	-0.286	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.750	-0.429	-0.750
predicted_SO	2.000	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.422	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.575	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.070
predicted_H	0.796	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.025	-
predicted_HR	0.085	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.499	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.577	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.719	-0.281

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.4286	0.5714
last_10	0.35	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.4286	0.5714
season	0.20	2	-	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.4286	0.5714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7430
predicted_AVG	0.2522
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0250
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.3021
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.6820
predicted_SLG	0.4017
predicted_SO	1.0870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2450	0.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0120	0.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7430	3.5747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2522	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2280	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.9440	0.7958	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0250	0.0250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0852	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3021	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4980	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6820	0.5767	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4017	0.4019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0870	1.7193	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2576

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.242	0.500
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.919	0.000	1.081	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.000	0.149	0.500
predicted_R	0.622	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	0.378	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.008	0.500
predicted_SO	1.054	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.054	2.000	-0.054	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.108	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	1.054	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.057	-0.051
predicted_AB	3.663	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	-0.172
predicted_H	0.794	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	-0.098
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	-0.220

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.1892	0.2439	0.3243	0.1892	0.0270	0.0541	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	23.000	18.000	39.000	0.2576	0.3506	0.4924	0.2576	0.0379	0.1515	0.1364	0.2954

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0210
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.2177
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.2742
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.3040
predicted_SLG	0.4005
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2000	0.2067	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1080	0.0210	0.0574	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.7320	3.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2177	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.1900	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8120	0.7944	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1470	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2742	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.4540	0.5244	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3040	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4005	0.4007	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0540	0.6760	0.8343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 30

All-history rows before 20260511: 30

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3279

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	4.067	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.067	3.000	-0.067	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.000	-0.078	0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.333	0.000	-0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	-0.099	0.000
predicted_R	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	2.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.541	0.000	-0.041	0.500
predicted_SO	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	4.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.433	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.972	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	0.042
predicted_H	0.905	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.536	-0.164
predicted_RBI	0.456	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.495	0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.067

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.3000	0.2750	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.0750
season	0.20	30	-	122.000	40.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	21.000	21.000	4.000	13.000	0.3279	0.3492	0.5410	0.3279	0.0492	0.1721	0.0328	0.1066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0940
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.2351
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2754
predicted_R	0.4110
predicted_RBI	0.4610
predicted_SLG	0.3056
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0940	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0080	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0670	3.9000	3.9720	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.2070	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9170	0.9054	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0528	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2754	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.4110	0.5356	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4610	0.4563	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3056	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4330	0.5420	0.4950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Michael Soroka (647336) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.429	1.000	-2.429	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.186	6.100	-0.986	-1.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	6.000	-5.000	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	16.000	34.000	7.000	29.000	4.000	5.3333	1.5185	0.5926	1.2593	0.2593	1.0741	0.1482
last_10	0.35	7	37.000	17.000	42.000	11.000	42.000	4.000	4.1351	1.4324	0.4595	1.1351	0.2973	1.1351	0.1081
season	0.20	7	37.000	17.000	42.000	11.000	42.000	4.000	4.1351	1.4324	0.4595	1.1351	0.2973	1.1351	0.1081

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5960
predicted_ER	2.6350
predicted_ERA	4.6918
predicted_H	5.6050
predicted_HR	0.6790
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.2260
predicted_WHIP	1.4243

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.5960	2.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.6350	1.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6918	4.6918	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.6050	4.7607	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6790	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	5.2260	3.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4243	1.4243	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.14
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	647336
playerID	647336
playerName	Michael Soroka
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 2

All-history rows before 20260511: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.600	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6940
predicted_ER	0.8200
predicted_ERA	4.6021
predicted_H	1.5330
predicted_HR	0.2530
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5000
predicted_WHIP	1.3880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6940	0.9224	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8200	0.9543	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6021	4.6021	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5330	1.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2530	0.0642	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5000	1.1269	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3880	1.3880	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 2

All-history rows before 20260511: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.4380
predicted_ERA	3.8358
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9760
predicted_WHIP	1.2453

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.0945	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4380	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8358	3.8358	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9210	0.2426	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9760	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2453	1.2453	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 1

All-history rows before 20260511: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.100	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	4.1368
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6260
predicted_WHIP	1.3037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2500	0.8252	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3040	2.3717	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1368	4.1368	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6140	1.6770	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0840	0.7865	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6260	0.9128	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3037	1.3037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Home Team: TEX

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2770

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.895	4.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.223	0.500
predicted_BB	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.447	0.000	-0.447	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	0.000	0.921	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.139	0.500
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.081	0.500
predicted_SO	0.842	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	0.000	0.158	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.447	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.076
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.823	-0.287
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.542	0.095
predicted_H	0.782	-0.057
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.036	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.369	-0.078
predicted_RBI	0.123	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.1111	0.2727	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.2647	0.3902	0.2647	0.2647	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765
season	0.20	38	-	148.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	17.000	32.000	0.2770	0.3609	0.4189	0.2770	0.0270	0.0811	0.1149	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6210
predicted_AVG	0.2050
predicted_BB	0.6090
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.1180
predicted_SLG	0.2519
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.0550	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	3.6210	3.8233	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2050	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4470	0.6090	0.5420	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7420	0.7825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0340	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.3140	0.3690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1180	0.1230	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2519	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.6760	0.7447	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 10

All-history rows before 20260511: 10

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	3.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.333	-0.240	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.333	-0.156	-0.083
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.333	-0.280	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	0.002
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.845	0.345
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.076
predicted_H	0.680	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.229	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.419	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	0.655	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.2667	0.2667	0.2000	0.0667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.2400	0.4062	0.2800	0.2400	0.1600	0.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	-	25.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.2400	0.4062	0.2800	0.2400	0.1600	0.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.2740
predicted_AVG	0.2499
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.5060
predicted_SLG	0.3320
predicted_SO	0.7240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1050	0.1022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0027	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2740	2.8449	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2499	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3300	0.4243	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.8180	0.6805	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2660	0.2294	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.5060	0.4195	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3320	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7240	0.6552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 36

All-history rows before 20260511: 36

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.750	0.000	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.278	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.278	3.000	-0.278	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.750	0.116	-0.250
predicted_R	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.472	2.000	0.528	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.750	-0.196	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.611	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.611	0.000	-0.611	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.611	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.125
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.928	0.095
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.174	-0.104
predicted_H	1.204	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.379	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.659	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.3571	0.3721	0.4524	0.3571	0.0238	0.1191	0.0000	0.1191
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	46.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	17.000	10.000	22.000	0.3333	0.3841	0.5290	0.3333	0.0362	0.1449	0.0725	0.1594

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9970
predicted_AVG	0.3130
predicted_BB	0.0980
predicted_H	1.2510
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3486
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.3930
predicted_SLG	0.4548
predicted_SO	0.6940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1170	0.2077	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.9970	3.9281	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3130	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.0980	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2510	1.2044	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1404	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.6080	0.5509	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3930	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4548	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6110	0.6940	0.6591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 35

All-history rows before 20260511: 35

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.479	0.417
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	1.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.187	0.250
predicted_R	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	2.000	0.629	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.366	1.000	0.301	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.279	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.618	0.047
predicted_H	0.568	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.244	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.621	0.164
predicted_RBI	0.535	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.1875	0.3500	0.5625	0.1875	0.1250	0.2500	0.2500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	7.000	0.1212	0.2750	0.3333	0.1212	0.0606	0.1212	0.2121	0.2121
season	0.20	35	-	112.000	21.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	30.000	0.1875	0.3134	0.3661	0.1875	0.0446	0.1161	0.1786	0.2679

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3380
predicted_AVG	0.1789
predicted_BB	0.6530
predicted_H	0.5970
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.2550
predicted_OBP	0.3145
predicted_R	0.7440
predicted_RBI	0.5620
predicted_SLG	0.4343
predicted_SO	0.7160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0820	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.3380	3.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1789	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.6530	0.6180	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5970	0.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2550	0.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3145	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.7440	0.6214	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5620	0.5355	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4343	0.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7160	0.7762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Kyle Higashioka (543309) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.333	0.065	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.333	-0.017	-0.083
predicted_R	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.259	0.333	-0.009	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.267	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.267	1.000	-1.267	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	1.267	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	0.012
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.658	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.050
predicted_H	0.650	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.000
predicted_R	0.255	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	1.255	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	13.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1842	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.20	15	-	54.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	0.1852	0.2667	0.2593	0.1852	0.0185	0.0926	0.1111	0.3518

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7130
predicted_AVG	0.1930
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.7170
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2562
predicted_R	0.2440
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.2594
predicted_SO	1.2440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0910	0.0792	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7130	3.6575	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1930	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3010	0.3496	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.7170	0.6498	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.2440	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3690	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2594	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2670	1.2440	1.2553	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	543309
playerID	543309
playerName	Kyle Higashioka
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 26

All-history rows before 20260511: 26

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2824

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	4.000	-0.269	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.250	-0.282	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.250	-0.111	0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.250	-0.447	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.692	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	2.000	-0.692	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.420	0.151
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	0.044
predicted_H	0.901	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.128	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.476	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.564	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.464	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.824	0.132

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3182	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	8.000	0.3235	0.4146	0.5588	0.3235	0.0294	0.1471	0.1765	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	18.000	0.2824	0.3608	0.4471	0.2823	0.0235	0.1294	0.1294	0.2118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.5430
predicted_AVG	0.2637
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3476
predicted_R	0.4880
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.4638
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2290	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0370	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.5430	3.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2637	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.5030	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9340	0.9007	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1350	0.1283	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3476	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4880	0.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5840	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4638	0.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.9320	0.8240	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2041

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.160	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	0.189	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	0.865	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_R	0.351	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.351	0.000	0.649	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	2.514	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.340	0.000	0.660	1.000
predicted_SO	1.135	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.135	0.000	-1.135	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.160	-
predicted_BB	0.162	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.205	-
predicted_R	0.351	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	1.135	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.889	-0.084
predicted_AVG	0.160	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.027
predicted_H	0.578	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.205	-0.000
predicted_R	0.340	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.888	-0.247

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2632	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	30.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	13.000	6.000	42.000	0.2041	0.2387	0.3401	0.2041	0.0340	0.1225	0.0408	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8290
predicted_AVG	0.1598
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	0.6120
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.2048
predicted_R	0.3320
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.2380
predicted_SO	0.7110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0810	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	3.8290	3.8893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1600	0.1598	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1620	0.2080	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6120	0.5777	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0664	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2050	0.2048	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3510	0.3320	0.3400	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2910	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2380	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1350	0.7110	0.8885	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 29

All-history rows before 20260511: 29

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2099

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	1.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.793	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.793	3.000	1.207	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.333	-0.210	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.414	1.000	-0.414	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.586	1.000	-0.586	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	-0.309	-0.500
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.667	-0.284	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.862	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.862	1.000	1.138	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.793	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.414	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.086
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.955	0.162
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.384	-0.030
predicted_H	0.689	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	-0.017
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.831	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.600)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3529	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2571	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2333
season	0.20	29	-	81.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	12.000	25.000	0.2099	0.3093	0.2840	0.2099	0.0123	0.0741	0.1482	0.3086

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0880
predicted_AVG	0.2415
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3095
predicted_R	0.2450
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.3554
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.2590	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7930	3.0880	2.9553	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2415	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4140	0.3590	0.3837	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7460	0.6893	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0290	0.0250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3095	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.2450	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3600	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3554	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.8060	0.8312	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1931

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	3.000	-1.718	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.150	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.000	-0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.564	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	1.000	1.436	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.718	0.000	-0.718	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.200	0.250
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	1.205	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.205	1.000	-1.205	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.150	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.265	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	1.205	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.740	0.022
predicted_AVG	0.150	0.000
predicted_BB	0.572	0.008
predicted_H	0.558	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.265	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.296	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	14.000	0.1351	0.2727	0.2432	0.1351	0.0270	0.0541	0.1892	0.3784
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	22.000	47.000	0.1931	0.3000	0.3793	0.1931	0.0483	0.1310	0.1517	0.3241

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.1500
predicted_BB	0.5770
predicted_H	0.5630
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2650
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.2968
predicted_SO	1.3610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0830	0.1123	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.7560	3.7403	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1500	0.1500	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.5770	0.5716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.5630	0.5576	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1550	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.3020	0.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3660	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2050	1.3610	1.2965	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	2.800	3.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.073	1.000	2.027	2.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.467	1.000	0.533	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	2.6129	1.1613	0.2903	0.6774	0.4839	0.2903
season	0.20	15	16.100	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	1.6531	0.7959	0.1837	0.4898	0.3061	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8640
predicted_ER	0.8140
predicted_ERA	3.0319
predicted_H	1.8650
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	1.6650
predicted_WHIP	1.1300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.8640	1.5526	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.8140	2.1392	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0319	3.0319	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	1.8650	3.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1880	0.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	2.1000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6650	1.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1300	1.1300	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	66

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	2.000	-0.019	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.062	1.000	-0.062	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.8182	0.5455	0.0909	0.3636	0.1818	0.6364	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	0.8710	0.4355	0.0968	0.2419	0.1935	0.8226	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_ER	0.4080
predicted_ERA	2.5090
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2370
predicted_WHIP	0.9086

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4170	0.7563	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4080	0.1706	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5090	2.5090	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9130	0.9636	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2370	1.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9086	0.9086	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.759	1.000	0.241
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	8.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.5000	0.9231	1.0385	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	17	15.000	8.000	14.000	6.000	17.000	3.000	4.8000	1.3333	0.5333	0.9333	0.4000	1.1333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_ER	0.5060
predicted_ERA	4.8270
predicted_H	0.9080
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9610
predicted_WHIP	1.3334

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3510	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5060	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8270	4.8270	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9080	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1720	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9610	0.9850	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3334	1.3334	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 11

All-history rows before 20260511: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	2.000	0.227	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.7500
season	0.20	11	9.200	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.8276	0.4138	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_ER	0.3360
predicted_ERA	3.0281
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9040
predicted_WHIP	1.1538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3640	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3360	0.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0281	3.0281	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7900	0.2724	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9040	0.9669	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1538	1.1538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jalen Beeks (656222) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	1.100	0.211	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	2.000	3.8571	0.9643	0.4286	0.6429	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143
season	0.20	18	17.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	16.000	2.000	2.6471	1.0588	0.2941	0.7647	0.2941	0.9412	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_ER	0.4710
predicted_ERA	4.2392
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9430
predicted_WHIP	1.2276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3700	0.7494	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4710	0.1874	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2392	4.2392	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8580	0.3414	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1530	0.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9430	0.9773	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2276	1.2276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.65
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	656222
playerID	656222
playerName	Jalen Beeks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.0000	2.7500	1.0000	2.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.0000	1.8889	0.4444	1.6667	0.2222	0.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	18.100	5.000	23.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	2.4545	1.5273	0.2727	1.2546	0.2727	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.5130
predicted_ERA	4.9290
predicted_H	1.2380
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6810
predicted_WHIP	1.6932

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3480	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5130	0.2081	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9290	4.9290	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2380	0.5021	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6810	0.8706	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6932	1.6932	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260511_LAA@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.60221, "home_win_probability": 0.60221, "away_win_probability": 0.39779, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.60221, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: LAA

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	1.000	-0.220	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	4.140	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	1.049	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.585	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	-0.585	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.878	1.000	-0.878	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	-0.328	-0.250
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	1.000	-0.659	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	-0.439	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.500	-0.401	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.439	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.439	1.000	0.561	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	4.140	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	1.439	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.078	0.054
predicted_AB	3.936	-0.204
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.484	-0.101
predicted_H	0.959	-0.051
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.153	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.668	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.482	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.284	-0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 4.140

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3636	0.6316	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	0.1622	0.2558	0.3243	0.1622	0.0270	0.0811	0.1081	0.3784
season	0.20	41	-	162.000	36.000	9.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	27.000	24.000	59.000	0.2222	0.3280	0.4012	0.2222	0.0370	0.1111	0.1482	0.3642

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.1150
predicted_AB	3.7960
predicted_AVG	0.2435
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.9240
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3170
predicted_R	0.6740
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4667
predicted_SO	1.1770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.1700	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.1150	0.0779	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1400	3.7960	3.9363	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2435	0.2433	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.4150	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	0.9240	0.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1490	0.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.6740	0.6679	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4630	0.4822	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4667	0.4668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4390	1.1770	1.2839	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2260

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.595	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.595	4.000	1.405	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.374	0.600
predicted_BB	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	2.189	3.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.000	0.275	0.600
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	0.149	0.600
predicted_SO	1.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.324	2.000	-0.324	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.595	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	1.324	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.511	-0.084
predicted_AVG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	-0.038
predicted_H	0.708	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.495	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	1.173	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0571	0.1429	0.1143	0.3143
season	0.20	37	-	133.000	30.000	6.000	8.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	49.000	0.2256	0.3248	0.4511	0.2256	0.0602	0.2105	0.1278	0.3684

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4510
predicted_AVG	0.2067
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.3111
predicted_R	0.4340
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.4220
predicted_SO	1.0640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.1630	0.1626	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5950	3.4510	3.5112	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.3940	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7130	0.7076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1920	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3111	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4340	0.4674	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4990	0.4952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4220	0.4220	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3240	1.0640	1.1726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	4.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.500	-0.291	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.467	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.500	-0.169	-0.300
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	2.000	-0.562	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.750	-0.436	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.620	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.443	-0.024
predicted_H	0.796	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.335	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.479	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.338	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2973	0.3415	0.5135	0.2973	0.0270	0.1622	0.0811	0.0541
season	0.20	15	-	55.000	16.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	3.000	0.2909	0.3651	0.4364	0.2909	0.0182	0.1454	0.1273	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2820
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.2268
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3094
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.4880
predicted_SLG	0.3656
predicted_SO	0.4680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.2820	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5750	3.6197	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2268	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.4210	0.4434	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8110	0.7959	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3094	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2730	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4880	0.4792	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3656	0.3658	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2000	0.4680	0.3377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 6

All-history rows before 20260511: 6

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	4.000	1.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.187	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.074	0.250
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.178	0.400
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.176	0.000	0.324	0.500
predicted_SO	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.187	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.281	-
predicted_SO	0.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.037	0.204
predicted_AVG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.199	0.032
predicted_H	0.518	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.249	-0.000
predicted_R	0.106	0.106
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.281	0.000
predicted_SO	0.321	0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.0769	0.1429	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769	0.0769
last_10	0.35	6	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588
season	0.20	6	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.3610
predicted_AVG	0.1866
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.6270
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2488
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.2810
predicted_SO	0.5660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1000	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	3.3610	3.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1870	0.1866	0.1868	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2510	0.1994	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.6270	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2488	0.2489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2750	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2620	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1670	0.5660	0.3210	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Bryce Teodosio (669326) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 13

All-history rows before 20260511: 13

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.923	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.923	3.000	2.077	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.600	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.337	0.600
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	2.231	3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.300	0.600
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.426	0.800	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.484	0.800
predicted_SO	1.231	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.231	1.000	-1.231	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.923	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.426	-
predicted_SO	1.231	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.046
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.091	0.168
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.035
predicted_H	0.862	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.241	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.426	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.279 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.4286	0.4667	0.5714	0.4286	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.3000	0.3438	0.3667	0.3000	0.0333	0.0667	0.4000
season	0.20	13	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	16.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2510
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2820
predicted_AVG	0.3050
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3542
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.2770
predicted_SLG	0.4258
predicted_SO	1.0380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2510	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9230	3.2820	3.0913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3050	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.2290	0.1892	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	1.0010	0.8624	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3542	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.4920	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2770	0.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4260	0.4258	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2310	1.0380	1.1405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	669326
playerID	669326
playerName	Bryce Teodosio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	0.027	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.002	0.250
predicted_BB	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.297	1.000	0.703	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.096	0.150
predicted_R	0.378	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	-0.124	0.250
predicted_SO	0.676	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.297	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.290	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.346	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.011
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.906	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	-0.057
predicted_H	0.953	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.290	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.346	0.000
predicted_SO	0.663	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3077	0.3250	0.4103	0.3077	0.0000	0.0256	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	37.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	14.000	11.000	25.000	0.2517	0.3043	0.3741	0.2517	0.0204	0.1361	0.0748	0.1701

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8590
predicted_AVG	0.2514
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2901
predicted_R	0.5180
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.3461
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.2620	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	3.8590	3.9065	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2514	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2970	0.2000	0.2404	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9700	0.9533	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2900	0.2901	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.5180	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2700	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3460	0.3461	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.6530	0.6626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2733

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.098	1.000	-0.098	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.927	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.927	4.000	1.073	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.750	-0.073	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.098	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.098	0.000	-0.098	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.073	3.000	-0.073	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	2.000	-0.146	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.750	-0.114	-0.550
predicted_R	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.390	2.000	-0.390	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.561	2.000	-0.561	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.602	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	2.500	-0.210	-2.300
predicted_SO	0.927	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.927	0.000	1.073	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.927	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.098	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.390	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.602	-
predicted_SO	0.927	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	0.099
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.677	-0.250
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.072	-0.026
predicted_H	1.051	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.254	-
predicted_HR	0.272	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.529	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.602	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.927

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.8125	0.3125	0.1250	0.1875	0.0000	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.3143	0.3514	0.5429	0.3143	0.0571	0.1143	0.0000	0.3143
season	0.20	41	-	161.000	44.000	4.000	6.000	23.000	16.000	4.000	38.000	0.2733	0.3140	0.4099	0.2733	0.0373	0.1429	0.0248	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.2540
predicted_HR	0.2660
predicted_OBP	0.3527
predicted_R	0.3850
predicted_RBI	0.5210
predicted_SLG	0.6017
predicted_SO	1.0050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0980	0.2670	0.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9270	3.5020	3.6774	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0980	0.0540	0.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0380	1.0512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2540	0.2540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2660	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3527	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3900	0.3850	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5210	0.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6020	0.6017	0.6018	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9270	1.0050	0.9728	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	10
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 26

All-history rows before 20260511: 26

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2796

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2800

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	1.423	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.250	-0.280	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.250	-0.337	-0.250
predicted_R	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	1.000	-0.346	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	2.000	-0.423	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.885	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.885	0.000	0.115	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	0.885	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.003
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.743	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.054
predicted_H	0.975	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.112	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.423	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2703	0.3077	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.2703
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	26.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	9.000	6.000	23.000	0.2796	0.3366	0.4839	0.2796	0.0538	0.1183	0.0645	0.2473

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8770
predicted_AVG	0.2711
predicted_BB	0.1330
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.1120
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3154
predicted_R	0.2950
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.4325
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1600	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.8770	3.7430	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2711	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.1330	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.0510	0.9746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1120	0.1120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1530	0.1427	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3154	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.2950	0.3178	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4580	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4325	0.4323	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8850	0.8220	0.8501	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.525	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.525	3.000	1.475	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	-0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.925	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.925	1.000	-0.925	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.250	-0.414	-0.250
predicted_R	0.825	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.825	1.000	-0.825	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	-0.518	0.000
predicted_SO	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	1.000	-0.150	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.525	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.925	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.825	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.533	0.008
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.725	-0.200
predicted_H	0.857	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.691	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.000
predicted_SO	1.317	0.167

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765	0.4118
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	19.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.4167	0.2500	0.0556	0.0833	0.1389	0.5278
season	0.20	40	-	141.000	35.000	5.000	11.000	23.000	33.000	37.000	46.000	0.2482	0.4144	0.5177	0.2482	0.0780	0.1631	0.2624	0.3262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.2432
predicted_BB	0.5860
predicted_H	0.8610
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3522
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.4291
predicted_SO	1.4340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0450	0.0778	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5250	3.5380	3.5327	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2432	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9250	0.5860	0.7250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8610	0.8565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2030	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8250	0.5970	0.6905	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4110	0.4106	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4291	0.4291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	1.4340	1.3175	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.380	1.000	1.720	2.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.467	2.000	2.533	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	4.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.1539	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	7.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	2.000	4.8462	1.3846	0.5385	0.9231	0.4615	0.8461	0.1538
season	0.20	15	22.100	10.000	20.000	10.000	22.000	3.000	4.0299	1.3433	0.4478	0.8955	0.4478	0.9851	0.1343

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9710
predicted_ER	1.3300
predicted_ERA	5.1553
predicted_H	2.2710
predicted_HR	0.3600
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	2.2830
predicted_WHIP	1.3959

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	0.9710	2.7090	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.3300	1.1406	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1553	5.1553	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.2710	2.1155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3600	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	2.1000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.2830	3.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3959	1.3959	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.03
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.157	0.100	0.043	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.0625	1.1250	0.5625	0.7500	0.3750	1.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	13.100	6.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.6000	0.4500	1.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	14	19.000	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3158	1.1053	0.3684	0.5789	0.5263	1.1053	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5880
predicted_ER	0.6910
predicted_ERA	4.2636
predicted_H	1.1970
predicted_HR	0.2590
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4830
predicted_WHIP	1.2237

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5880	0.2407	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6910	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2636	4.2636	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1970	1.0806	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2590	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4830	0.6070	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2237	1.2237	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.32
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	2.000	0.394	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	4.000	-0.824	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	2.1429	0.4286	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	0.0000
season	0.20	17	13.100	4.000	12.000	10.000	14.000	1.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.9000	0.7500	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_ER	0.4080
predicted_ERA	3.9208
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8880
predicted_WHIP	1.5445

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5170	0.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4080	0.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9208	3.9208	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9300	1.6000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8880	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5445	1.5445	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 1

All-history rows before 20260511: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.4480
predicted_ERA	4.0316
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9590
predicted_WHIP	1.3088

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3670	0.8458	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4480	0.1092	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0316	4.0316	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9410	0.2293	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9590	1.7464	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3088	1.3088	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.343	1.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.929	2.000	-0.929	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	6.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	3.7674	1.0465	0.4186	0.5581	0.4884	1.1861
season	0.20	14	20.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	4.3548	1.0645	0.4839	0.5323	0.5323	1.3064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_ER	0.4760
predicted_ERA	3.5171
predicted_H	0.8250
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3510
predicted_WHIP	1.1133

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5310	0.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4760	0.7809	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5171	3.5171	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8250	0.9268	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3510	1.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1133	1.1133	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 5

All-history rows before 20260511: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.060	1.100	-0.860	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.600	2.000	-0.600	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	1.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	1.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	5	6.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.3333	1.3333	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.6733
predicted_H	0.6540
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8190
predicted_WHIP	1.1308

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2450	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3250	0.1004	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6733	3.6733	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6540	0.8931	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8190	0.9441	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1308	1.1308	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mitch Farris (815083) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 6

All-history rows before 20260511: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	-	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	-	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.383	3.000	-0.283	-0.900
predicted_SO	-	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.833	2.000	-0.833	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	14.000	6.000	20.000	3.000	11.000	3.000	3.8571	1.6429	0.4286	1.4286	0.2143	0.7857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	6	15.000	6.000	21.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.6000	1.6667	0.4000	1.4000	0.2667	0.7333	0.2000
season	0.20	6	15.000	6.000	21.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.6000	1.6667	0.4000	1.4000	0.2667	0.7333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_ER	0.5430
predicted_ERA	4.0538
predicted_H	1.3500
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0730
predicted_WHIP	1.4424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3880	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5430	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0538	4.0538	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3500	0.5202	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1930	0.0744	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	1.1000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0730	0.4134	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4424	1.4424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	37

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	58
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	34
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	815083
playerID	815083
playerName	Mitch Farris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: CLE

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 42

All-history rows before 20260511: 42

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2890

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.643	4.000	1.357	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.178	0.150
predicted_BB	0.738	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.738	1.000	0.262	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	1.000	1.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.400	0.147	0.100
predicted_R	0.595	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	0.405	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	1.000	0.619	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.250	0.208	0.350
predicted_SO	0.619	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.619	1.000	-0.619	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.738	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.319	-
predicted_SO	0.619	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.547	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.915	0.177
predicted_H	0.920	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.000
predicted_R	0.641	0.046
predicted_RBI	0.413	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.319	0.000
predicted_SO	0.715	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 42

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	0.3125	0.5217	0.3125	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.4375	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	10.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.2778	0.2222
season	0.20	42	-	153.000	34.000	8.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	31.000	26.000	0.2222	0.3533	0.3922	0.2222	0.0392	0.1046	0.2026	0.1699

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.2603
predicted_BB	1.0380
predicted_H	0.9060
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.4233
predicted_R	0.6730
predicted_RBI	0.4080
predicted_SLG	0.3190
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.0840	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.4810	3.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2603	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7380	1.0380	0.9152	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9060	0.9199	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4233	0.4232	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.6730	0.6411	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4080	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3190	0.3190	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6190	0.7810	0.7147	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	42
Season rows before report date	42
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	42
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2081

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.150	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	4.000	1.079	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.816	0.000	-0.816	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.167	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	-0.137	0.167
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.268	0.000	-0.268	0.000
predicted_SO	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.526	2.000	0.474	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.248	-
predicted_SO	0.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.037	-0.113
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.520	0.020
predicted_H	0.731	-0.019
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000
predicted_R	0.560	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.146	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.150

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	6.000	5.000	0.1750	0.2979	0.2250	0.1750	0.0000	0.0250	0.1500	0.1250
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	19.000	20.000	0.2081	0.3041	0.2685	0.2081	0.0067	0.0604	0.1275	0.1342

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9570
predicted_AVG	0.1814
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	0.7180
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2860
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.1440
predicted_SLG	0.2483
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1900	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1500	3.9570	4.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1814	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5340	0.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7180	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2860	0.2860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.6210	0.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1440	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2480	0.2483	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5260	0.5980	0.5683	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2782

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.325	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.325	4.000	0.675	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_BB	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	4.000	-0.925	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.414	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	1.000	-0.160	-0.800
predicted_R	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.425	2.000	-0.425	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	0.000	-0.475	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	1.250	-0.383	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.325	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.414	-
predicted_R	0.425	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.350	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.511	0.186
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.407	0.057
predicted_H	1.069	0.159
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.414	-0.000
predicted_R	0.499	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.3889	0.5000	0.4444	0.3889	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3953	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.20	40	-	133.000	37.000	5.000	3.000	19.000	17.000	14.000	14.000	0.2782	0.3600	0.3835	0.2782	0.0226	0.1429	0.1053	0.1053

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6460
predicted_AVG	0.3250
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	1.1850
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.4138
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.2190
predicted_SLG	0.4039
predicted_SO	0.4360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1840	0.1592	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3250	3.6460	3.5110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3250	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.4490	0.4074	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	1.1850	1.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4140	0.4138	0.4139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4250	0.5530	0.4992	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2190	0.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4039	0.4039	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3500	0.4360	0.3998	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

David Fry (681807) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.933	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.933	4.000	2.067	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.273	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	-0.385	-0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.511	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.500	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.133	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	1.000	0.867	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.533	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.511	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	0.001
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.157	0.224
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	-0.061
predicted_H	0.786	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.235	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.609	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.587	0.067
predicted_SLG	0.511	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	-0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.16), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.6250	0.2500	0.1250	0.3125	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	0.2812	0.3784	0.5625	0.2812	0.0938	0.1875	0.1562	0.3438
season	0.20	15	-	44.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	8.000	17.000	0.2727	0.3846	0.5000	0.2727	0.0682	0.1364	0.1818	0.3864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3850
predicted_AVG	0.2578
predicted_BB	0.4090
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.2600
predicted_OBP	0.3398
predicted_R	0.6190
predicted_RBI	0.6560
predicted_SLG	0.5113
predicted_SO	0.9440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0690	0.0680	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9330	3.3850	3.1569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2578	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5330	0.4090	0.4716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8730	0.7857	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2600	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3398	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6190	0.6094	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6560	0.5874	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5110	0.5113	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.9440	1.0394	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681807
playerID	681807
playerName	David Fry
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 29

All-history rows before 20260511: 29

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1765

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.517	1.000	1.483	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	2.000	-0.345	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.621	0.000	-0.621	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.667	-0.261	-0.667
predicted_R	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	1.000	-0.241	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_SO	1.276	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.276	1.000	-0.276	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.517	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.345	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.291	-
predicted_SO	1.276	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.113	0.044
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.524	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	0.014
predicted_H	0.758	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.369	0.128
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.000
predicted_SO	1.104	-0.172

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.1429	0.2250	0.1714	0.1429	0.0000	0.1143	0.1143	0.3143
season	0.20	29	-	102.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	37.000	0.1765	0.2609	0.2255	0.1765	0.0098	0.0882	0.0980	0.3628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5290
predicted_AVG	0.2232
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.4750
predicted_SLG	0.2911
predicted_SO	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.1480	0.1134	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5170	3.5290	3.5238	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2232	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3450	0.3700	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7880	0.7583	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.4680	0.3687	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4750	0.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2910	0.2911	0.2911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2760	0.9710	1.1044	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 34

All-history rows before 20260511: 34

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.294	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.882	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	5.000	1.118	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.400	0.305	0.200
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.147	2.000	1.853	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.667	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.400	0.293	0.267
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	0.559	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.720	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.735	2.000	2.265	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.464	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.523	0.400	0.677	0.800
predicted_SO	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.720	-
predicted_SLG	0.464	-
predicted_SO	0.471	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.322	0.028
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.012
predicted_AB	4.007	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	-0.082
predicted_H	1.264	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.334	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.745	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.464	0.000
predicted_SO	0.485	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.315 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	6.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.3636	0.2727	0.0000	0.1818	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.4250	0.4889	0.6000	0.4250	0.0250	0.2250	0.1250	0.1000
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	25.000	15.000	17.000	16.000	0.2955	0.3733	0.5227	0.2954	0.0454	0.1894	0.1288	0.1212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3430
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	4.0970
predicted_AVG	0.3162
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	1.2950
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_OBP	0.3699
predicted_R	0.2570
predicted_RBI	0.7630
predicted_SLG	0.4644
predicted_SO	0.4960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2940	0.3430	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0080	0.0168	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	4.0970	4.0066	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3162	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3580	0.4177	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2950	1.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0830	0.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3699	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.2570	0.3344	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7200	0.7630	0.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4640	0.4644	0.4642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4710	0.4960	0.4855	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	6
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 29

All-history rows before 20260511: 29

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2772

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2770

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	4.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.250	0.223	0.250
predicted_BB	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.966	1.000	1.034	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.400	0.240	0.200
predicted_R	0.414	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	0.586	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.250	0.025	0.250
predicted_SO	1.172	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.172	2.000	-1.172	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.448	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.318	-
predicted_SO	1.172	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.562	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.549	0.101
predicted_H	0.780	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.331	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.251	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.318	0.000
predicted_SO	1.203	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.2222	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.1389	0.3611
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	28.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	12.000	13.000	34.000	0.2772	0.3596	0.4752	0.2772	0.0396	0.1287	0.1287	0.3366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.2278
predicted_BB	0.6280
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3412
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.2680
predicted_SLG	0.3181
predicted_SO	1.2270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.1810	0.2226	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.6230	3.5617	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2278	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4480	0.6280	0.5492	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8260	0.7796	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3412	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.2670	0.3314	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2680	0.2514	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3180	0.3181	0.3181	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1720	1.2270	1.2029	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 26

All-history rows before 20260511: 26

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2024

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.231	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.231	2.000	1.769	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.000	-0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	-0.654	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.250	-0.330	-0.250
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	1.077	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	2.923	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.231	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.184	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.157	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.536	-0.079
predicted_H	0.487	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.517	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.773	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.049	-0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.0714	0.2105	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.1667	0.3077	0.4000	0.1667	0.0667	0.2667	0.2000	0.3667
season	0.20	26	-	84.000	17.000	6.000	3.000	13.000	14.000	16.000	28.000	0.2024	0.3301	0.3810	0.2024	0.0357	0.1548	0.1905	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1460
predicted_AVG	0.1566
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	0.4930
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.2769
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.7830
predicted_SLG	0.3562
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0970	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2310	3.1460	3.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1566	0.1568	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.4730	0.5362	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.4930	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1750	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2769	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.5010	0.5175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.7830	0.7728	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3562	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.0260	1.0487	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 11

All-history rows before 20260511: 11

System season_avg: 0.1940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1944

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	3.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.194	0.333	0.139	0.000
predicted_BB	0.909	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.909	2.000	1.091	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.600	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.600	0.204	0.000
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.333	0.056	0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.909	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.375	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.776	-0.133
predicted_H	0.666	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.199	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.616	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.375	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.574	0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.1875	0.4091	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	0.2059	0.3864	0.2941	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.2353	0.1471
season	0.20	11	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	0.1944	0.3958	0.2778	0.1944	0.0278	0.1111	0.2778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.2142
predicted_BB	0.6370
predicted_H	0.7460
predicted_HBP	0.1990
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3629
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.3535
predicted_SO	0.6040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0640	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.4830	3.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2142	0.2141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9090	0.6370	0.7764	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7460	0.6661	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1990	0.1990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1232	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3629	0.3630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.5940	0.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4230	0.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3535	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.6040	0.5738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.194

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Joey Cantillo (676282) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 8

All-history rows before 20260511: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.875	1.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.713	5.000	-0.513	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.625	1.000	0.375	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	11.000	24.000	12.000	17.000	5.000	4.0135	1.4595	0.4460	0.9730	0.4865	0.6892	0.2027
last_10	0.35	8	39.100	15.000	35.000	19.000	37.000	5.000	3.4322	1.3729	0.3814	0.8898	0.4830	0.9407	0.1271
season	0.20	8	39.100	15.000	35.000	19.000	37.000	5.000	3.4322	1.3729	0.3814	0.8898	0.4830	0.9407	0.1271

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1710
predicted_ER	2.1480
predicted_ERA	3.9682
predicted_H	4.5970
predicted_HR	0.7760
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.1000
predicted_WHIP	1.3893

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.1710	1.5709	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.1480	2.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9682	3.9682	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5970	4.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7760	0.3783	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.1000	4.5612	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3893	1.3893	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	19
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.43
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	70
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	43
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676282
playerID	676282
playerName	Joey Cantillo
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.631	1.000	0.569	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	3.000	2.000	1.8462	1.1539	0.6923	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	1.5556	0.8889	0.6667	0.3333
season	0.20	16	12.200	11.000	8.000	6.000	1.5000	0.8684	0.6316	0.4737

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6800
predicted_ER	0.4400
predicted_ERA	2.7879
predicted_H	1.3650
predicted_HR	0.1210
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1040
predicted_WHIP	1.4397

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6800	0.8819	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4400	0.7934	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7879	2.7879	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3650	1.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1210	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1040	1.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4397	1.4397	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	0.094	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	11.000	1.000	14.000	0.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	1.0645	0.0968	1.3548	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.100	7.000	19.000	4.000	24.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	1.0364	0.2182	1.3091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.4360
predicted_ERA	3.2916
predicted_H	1.1090
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4120
predicted_WHIP	1.1835

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3030	0.7173	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4360	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2916	3.2916	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1090	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4120	1.1671	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1835	1.1835	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 11

All-history rows before 20260511: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	1.000	0.500	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	12.0000	3.3333	1.3333	2.6667	0.6667	0.6667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	6.7500	1.7500	0.7500	1.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.2500
season	0.20	10	8.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	6.7500	1.7500	0.7500	1.3750	0.3750	1.0000	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4920
predicted_ER	0.7190
predicted_ERA	5.5216
predicted_H	1.4300
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0810
predicted_WHIP	1.6394

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4920	0.1621	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7190	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5216	5.5216	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4300	1.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1980	0.0652	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0810	1.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6394	1.6394	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 20

All-history rows before 20260511: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.680	1.000	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.450	2.000	-1.450	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	2.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.000	2.1600	0.8400	0.2400	0.3600	0.4800	1.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	17.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	29.000	1.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.4038	0.4038	1.6731	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3330
predicted_ER	0.2930
predicted_ERA	2.9597
predicted_H	0.5710
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.0139

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3330	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2930	0.1172	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9597	2.9597	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5710	0.8285	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1830	0.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0139	1.0139	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	0.200	0.135	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	2.000	-1.118	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	3.7241	0.9310	0.4138	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.2069
season	0.20	17	18.200	11.000	18.000	4.000	19.000	4.000	5.3036	1.1786	0.5893	0.9643	0.2143	1.0179	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.4940
predicted_ERA	4.4483
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9970
predicted_WHIP	1.2276

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.1467	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4940	0.2013	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4483	4.4483	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8670	0.9458	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1990	0.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9970	0.4062	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2276	1.2276	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.30
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260511_NYY@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.517, "home_win_probability": 0.483, "away_win_probability": 0.517, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence": 0.517, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 7 - 4 BAL", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: NYY

Max Schuemann (680474) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 1

All-history rows before 20260511: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.333	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	-0.167	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	1.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.798	-0.202
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.951	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.070	0.070
predicted_H	0.852	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.122	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.408	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.964	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2730
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8230
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.2994
predicted_R	0.4410
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.4077
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	1.0000	0.2730	0.7985	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0036	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8230	3.9509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2451	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2530	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9370	0.8524	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1080	0.0950	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2994	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4410	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5330	0.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4077	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8710	0.9642	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-RF
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	680474
playerID	680474
playerName	Max Schuemann
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 30

All-history rows before 20260511: 30

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1848

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	4.000	0.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.000	-0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.268	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.268	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.122	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.573	-0.027
predicted_H	0.485	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.082	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.178	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.009	0.176

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	11.000	0.2188	0.3421	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.0938	0.1875	0.3438
season	0.20	30	-	92.000	17.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	18.000	25.000	0.1848	0.3153	0.2935	0.1848	0.0326	0.0544	0.1956	0.2717

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0370
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1650
predicted_AVG	0.1667
predicted_BB	0.5520
predicted_H	0.5280
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_OBP	0.2924
predicted_R	0.4660
predicted_RBI	0.1930
predicted_SLG	0.2676
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0330	0.0370	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.1650	3.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1667	0.1668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5520	0.5731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5280	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0920	0.0823	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2924	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4660	0.4075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1930	0.1785	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	1.1470	1.0089	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 27

All-history rows before 20260511: 27

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1910

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.4170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.296	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.296	4.000	1.704	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.630	0.000	-0.630	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_R	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.296	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.232	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.411	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.174	-0.085
predicted_H	0.691	0.050
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.232	0.000
predicted_R	0.356	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.447	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	1.058	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1765	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	11.000	0.2286	0.2286	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.1143	0.0000	0.3143
season	0.20	27	-	89.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	30.000	0.1910	0.2500	0.2809	0.1910	0.0225	0.1011	0.0786	0.3371

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5060
predicted_AVG	0.2088
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_OBP	0.2324
predicted_R	0.4050
predicted_RBI	0.4770
predicted_SLG	0.3570
predicted_SO	1.0150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.1050	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2960	3.5060	3.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2088	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.1050	0.1744	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7320	0.6905	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1360	0.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2320	0.2324	0.2322	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.4050	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4770	0.4468	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3570	0.3570	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	1.0150	1.0583	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2098

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	1.000	0.842	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	4.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.250	0.040	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.108	0.150
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	1.000	-0.368	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.500	0.164	0.000
predicted_SO	1.184	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	2.000	-1.184	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.264	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.747	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	-0.046
predicted_H	0.722	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.264	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.230	0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.2222	0.3095	0.3333	0.2222	0.0278	0.1111	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	30.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	17.000	16.000	45.000	0.2098	0.2919	0.3357	0.2098	0.0280	0.0979	0.1119	0.3147

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7350
predicted_AVG	0.1992
predicted_BB	0.3420
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2644
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.2969
predicted_SO	1.2630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1590	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.7350	3.7467	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1992	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3420	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7440	0.7215	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2640	0.2644	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.2740	0.3460	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3320	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	1.2630	1.2301	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 32

All-history rows before 20260511: 32

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2991

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.656	4.000	0.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.201	0.500
predicted_BB	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.094	0.000	0.906	2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.344	0.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.411	0.000	0.189	0.600
predicted_R	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.781	0.000	0.219	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.658	0.000	0.592	1.250
predicted_SO	1.094	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.094	1.000	-0.094	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.688	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.875	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	1.094	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.683	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.539	-0.149
predicted_H	0.818	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.235	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.717	-0.158
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.064

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3889	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.5000	0.2368	0.0790	0.1579	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.20	32	-	117.000	35.000	9.000	11.000	25.000	28.000	22.000	35.000	0.2991	0.4113	0.6581	0.2992	0.0940	0.2137	0.1880	0.2992

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7020
predicted_AVG	0.2224
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2390
predicted_OBP	0.3036
predicted_R	0.6010
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4665
predicted_SO	0.9830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2810	0.1820	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.7020	3.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2224	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6880	0.4290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8230	0.8175	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2390	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3036	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8750	0.6010	0.7172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4560	0.4535	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4665	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0940	0.9830	1.0301	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 3

All-history rows before 20260511: 3

System season_avg: 0.1110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.111	0.250	0.139	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	1.667	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.111	0.250	0.139	0.000
predicted_SO	1.667	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.667	1.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.280	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.200	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.010
predicted_H	0.633	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.069	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.280	-0.000
predicted_R	0.118	0.118
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.000
predicted_SO	1.480	-0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.5556
last_10	0.35	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	3	-	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.5556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1280
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.6000
predicted_AVG	0.2111
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.2795
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.4360
predicted_SLG	0.3243
predicted_SO	1.1070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1280	0.0426	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6000	3.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2111	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3030	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7600	0.6333	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0860	0.0687	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2800	0.2795	0.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3530	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4360	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3243	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6670	1.1070	1.4805	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.111

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2887

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.641	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	2.000	0.359	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.353	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	-0.289	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.051	1.000	-1.051	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.750	-0.192	-0.550
predicted_R	0.641	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	1.000	0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.590	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.500	-0.507	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.564	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.564	0.000	0.436	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.641	-
predicted_AVG	0.353	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.463	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.590	-
predicted_SO	0.564	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.122	0.045
predicted_AB	3.594	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.353	0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	0.070
predicted_H	1.242	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.463	-0.000
predicted_R	0.630	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.712	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.590	0.000
predicted_SO	0.522	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.341 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.3529	0.5000	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.2941	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	16.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	0.4444	0.5333	0.8889	0.4444	0.0556	0.3611	0.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	41.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	26.000	25.000	26.000	22.000	0.2887	0.3918	0.5070	0.2887	0.0352	0.1831	0.1831	0.1549

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2450
predicted_3B	0.1540
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.3530
predicted_BB	0.7870
predicted_H	1.2570
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.4625
predicted_R	0.6230
predicted_RBI	0.7200
predicted_SLG	0.5901
predicted_SO	0.4920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.2450	0.2495	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.1540	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6410	3.5600	3.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.7870	0.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.2570	1.2417	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0970	0.0941	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4630	0.4625	0.4627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.6230	0.6304	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7200	0.7117	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5900	0.5901	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5640	0.4920	0.5217	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2671

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.561	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.561	3.000	0.439	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.333	0.233	0.167
predicted_BB	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.780	1.000	0.220	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.073	1.000	-0.073	-1.000
predicted_H	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.951	1.000	1.049	1.000
predicted_HR	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.390	1.000	0.610	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.406	0.500	0.194	0.100
predicted_R	0.854	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.854	1.000	0.146	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.732	1.000	1.268	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.586	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.637	1.333	0.613	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.293	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.293	2.000	-1.293	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.561	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.780	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.854	-
predicted_RBI	0.710	-
predicted_SLG	0.586	-
predicted_SO	1.293	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.579	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.804	0.024
predicted_H	0.929	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.356	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000
predicted_R	0.749	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.721	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.586	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.429	0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.100

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.5556	0.2222	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	11.000	16.000	0.3143	0.4783	0.6857	0.3143	0.1143	0.2857	0.3143	0.4571
season	0.20	41	-	146.000	39.000	6.000	16.000	30.000	35.000	32.000	53.000	0.2671	0.4056	0.6370	0.2671	0.1096	0.2055	0.2192	0.3630

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.2607
predicted_BB	0.8200
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.3610
predicted_OBP	0.3970
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.7290
predicted_SLG	0.5857
predicted_SO	1.5240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.0800	0.1071	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5610	3.5920	3.5793	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2607	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7800	0.8200	0.8036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9360	0.9294	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3610	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3970	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8540	0.6760	0.7490	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7100	0.7290	0.7212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5860	0.5857	0.5858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2930	1.5240	1.4292	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 33

All-history rows before 20260511: 33

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	4.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.250	0.325	0.250
predicted_BB	0.697	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.697	0.000	0.303	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	1.364	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.297	0.350
predicted_R	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.636	0.000	0.364	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.250	0.183	0.250
predicted_SO	0.758	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.758	2.000	-0.758	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.697	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.758	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.057
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.861	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.503	-0.194
predicted_H	0.822	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	-0.036
predicted_RBI	0.595	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.809	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	7.000	0.2308	0.2955	0.4359	0.2308	0.0256	0.1795	0.1026	0.1795
season	0.20	33	-	120.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	23.000	25.000	0.1750	0.3034	0.3167	0.1750	0.0250	0.1500	0.1917	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8760
predicted_AVG	0.2124
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.2772
predicted_R	0.5740
predicted_RBI	0.5980
predicted_SLG	0.3399
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2800	0.2386	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0080	0.0173	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	3.8760	3.8608	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2124	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6970	0.3610	0.5029	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8230	0.8217	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0660	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.5740	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5980	0.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3399	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7580	0.8460	0.8088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan Weathers (677960) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	1.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.357	5.000	-1.157	-0.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.429	5.000	-3.429	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	9.000	26.000	5.000	34.000	6.000	2.6413	1.0109	0.2935	0.8478	0.1630	1.1087	0.1956
last_10	0.35	7	38.200	13.000	36.000	10.000	45.000	6.000	3.0259	1.1897	0.3362	0.9310	0.2586	1.1638	0.1552
season	0.20	7	38.200	13.000	36.000	10.000	45.000	6.000	3.0259	1.1897	0.3362	0.9310	0.2586	1.1638	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4440
predicted_ER	2.0040
predicted_ERA	3.3406
predicted_H	4.8440
predicted_HR	0.8750
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.6850
predicted_WHIP	1.1649

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.4440	2.7886	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0040	2.0019	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3406	3.3406	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.8440	3.8740	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8750	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.1000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.6850	4.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1649	1.1649	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	4
SO	3
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.03
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	55
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	677960
playerID	677960
playerName	Ryan Weathers
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	1.000	0.588	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.918	0.200	0.182	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.235	2.000	-1.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.9375	0.0000	1.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	13.000	1.000	2.6129	0.8710	0.2903	0.7742	0.0968	1.2581	0.0968
season	0.20	17	17.000	7.000	19.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7059	1.4118	0.4118	1.1177	0.2941	1.2353	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_ER	0.5450
predicted_ERA	4.0877
predicted_H	1.1150
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3030
predicted_WHIP	1.1952

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3180	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5450	0.8190	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0877	4.0877	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1150	1.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1550	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3030	0.5184	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1952	1.1952	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.753	1.000	0.347	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.0800	1.0800	0.1200	0.8400	0.2400	0.4800	0.1200
season	0.20	19	17.100	2.000	12.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.0385	0.8077	0.1154	0.6923	0.1154	0.4038	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.3480
predicted_ERA	2.7208
predicted_H	1.1340
predicted_HR	0.1130
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9140
predicted_WHIP	1.2564

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3100	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3480	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7208	2.7208	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1340	0.4534	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1130	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9140	0.3655	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2564	1.2564	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 21

All-history rows before 20260511: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.100	0.167	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.048	1.000	-0.048	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5714	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.5429	0.8571	0.1714	0.6000	0.2571	0.8571	0.0857
season	0.20	21	21.000	4.000	18.000	8.000	22.000	1.000	1.7143	1.2381	0.1905	0.8571	0.3810	1.0476	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_ER	0.3680
predicted_ERA	2.9497
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0740
predicted_WHIP	1.0862

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3840	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3680	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9497	2.9497	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8340	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0740	1.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0862	1.0862	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.537	1.100	-0.337	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.211	3.000	0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	4.000	11.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	4.1538	1.8462	0.4615	1.2692	0.5769	1.7308	0.2308
season	0.20	19	15.100	5.000	13.000	11.000	23.000	2.000	2.9348	1.5652	0.3261	0.8478	0.7174	1.5000	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_ER	0.3180
predicted_ERA	3.7311
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8410
predicted_WHIP	1.4200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3430	0.7454	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3180	0.7357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7311	3.7311	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.7470	1.5145	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0920	0.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8410	1.5509	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4200	1.4200	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: BAL

Tyler O'Neill (641933) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1860

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.071	3.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.147	0.333
predicted_BB	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.000	0.160	0.500
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.263	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.256	0.000	0.078	0.333
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.071	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.263	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.138	0.067
predicted_AVG	0.200	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.613	0.042
predicted_H	0.605	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.569	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.289	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.263	0.000
predicted_SO	0.739	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.1538	0.3889	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846	0.1538
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	8.000	0.1935	0.3421	0.1935	0.1935	0.0000	0.0645	0.1935	0.2581
season	0.20	14	-	43.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	0.1860	0.3396	0.2558	0.1860	0.0233	0.1163	0.1860	0.2558

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2050
predicted_AVG	0.1995
predicted_BB	0.6560
predicted_H	0.6400
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.2630
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0550	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0710	3.2050	3.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1995	0.1998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.6560	0.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6400	0.6048	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.4940	0.5689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3090	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.6920	0.7393	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	641933
playerID	641933
playerName	Tyler O'Neill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.756	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.756	4.000	-0.756	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.119	0.333
predicted_BB	0.512	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.512	0.000	0.488	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.805	0.000	0.195	1.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.188	0.500
predicted_R	0.659	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	0.341	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.537	0.000	-0.537	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.000	-0.102	0.333
predicted_SO	1.049	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.049	1.000	-0.049	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.756	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.512	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.493	-
predicted_SO	1.049	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.868	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.206	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.149
predicted_H	0.778	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.309	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.000
predicted_R	0.652	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.776	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.493	0.000
predicted_SO	1.014	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.080

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.4286	0.1429	0.0952	0.2381	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	10.000	4.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.6579	0.2632	0.1053	0.2368	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	41	-	154.000	33.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	27.000	21.000	43.000	0.2143	0.3125	0.4351	0.2143	0.0520	0.1429	0.1364	0.2792

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9460
predicted_AVG	0.2059
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.3220
predicted_OBP	0.2526
predicted_R	0.6480
predicted_RBI	0.8090
predicted_SLG	0.4934
predicted_SO	0.9890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1640	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7560	3.9460	3.8678	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2059	0.2059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5120	0.2590	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8120	0.7783	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.3220	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2526	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.6480	0.6525	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8090	0.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4930	0.4934	0.4932	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0490	0.9890	1.0137	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 23

All-history rows before 20260511: 23

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2020

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.913	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.913	4.000	0.087	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.130	0.000	-1.130	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.147	0.200
predicted_R	0.478	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.478	0.000	-0.478	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.826	0.000	-0.826	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.544	0.000	-0.544	0.000
predicted_SO	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	2.000	0.348	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.913	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.478	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.510	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.366	0.018
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.928	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.001
predicted_H	1.066	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.521	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.678	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.510	0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.913

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3023	0.4750	0.2500	0.0500	0.2250	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	23	-	90.000	26.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	11.000	7.000	15.000	0.2889	0.3469	0.5444	0.2889	0.0556	0.2111	0.0778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3800
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9400
predicted_AVG	0.2719
predicted_BB	0.3050
predicted_H	1.0710
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.1840
predicted_OBP	0.3406
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.6840
predicted_SLG	0.5100
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3480	0.3800	0.3656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9130	3.9400	3.9279	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2719	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3050	0.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.0710	1.0661	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1840	0.1822	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3406	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4780	0.5560	0.5210	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6840	0.6777	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5100	0.5100	0.5100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.8590	0.7660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 26

All-history rows before 20260511: 26

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_3B	0.038	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	0.962	1.000
predicted_AB	3.346	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.346	4.000	0.654	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	0.224	0.250
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.112	0.250
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	1.308	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.425	0.250	0.825	1.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.346	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.002
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.460	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000
predicted_BB	0.518	-0.097
predicted_H	0.796	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.371	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.749	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.1471	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	87.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	12.000	16.000	18.000	0.2759	0.3883	0.4253	0.2759	0.0230	0.2069	0.1839	0.2069

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.5510
predicted_AVG	0.2391
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3240
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.3475
predicted_SO	0.7950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.1950	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0380	0.0380	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3460	3.5510	3.4597	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2391	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.4400	0.5179	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8490	0.7960	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3240	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4030	0.4293	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3960	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3475	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.7950	0.7491	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 25

All-history rows before 20260511: 25

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	1.000	0.800	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	1.000	-0.240	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.680	0.000	-0.680	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_SO	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	1.000	-0.080	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.277	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.000
predicted_BB	0.249	0.009
predicted_H	0.863	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.251	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.3529	0.3529	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.2759	0.3438	0.3103	0.2759	0.0345	0.1035	0.3103
season	0.20	25	-	80.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	27.000	0.2125	0.2759	0.2375	0.2125	0.0250	0.0750	0.3375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3430
predicted_AVG	0.2842
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.9500
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3391
predicted_R	0.1920
predicted_RBI	0.2150
predicted_SLG	0.3355
predicted_SO	1.0250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0830	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.3430	3.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2842	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.2570	0.2492	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9500	0.8629	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3391	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.1920	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2150	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3355	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.0250	1.0502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.275	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.275	4.000	0.725	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.500	-0.011	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.500	-0.069	-0.300
predicted_R	0.575	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.575	0.000	-0.575	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	1.000	-0.525	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.421	0.500	-0.221	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.400	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.275	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.255	-
predicted_R	0.575	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.305	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.070
predicted_H	0.935	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.255	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	-0.200
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	1.289	-0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.275

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.2727	0.2273	0.0000	0.0909	0.0454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2174	0.2222	0.2000	0.0000	0.0444	0.0222	0.2889
season	0.20	40	-	171.000	36.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	21.000	23.000	13.000	56.000	0.2105	0.2688	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.1228	0.0760	0.3275

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.3250
predicted_AVG	0.2186
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2554
predicted_R	0.2370
predicted_RBI	0.3770
predicted_SLG	0.3001
predicted_SO	1.2130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1640	0.1685	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0070	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2750	4.3250	4.3046	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2186	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.2070	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.9450	0.9348	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0580	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2550	0.2554	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5750	0.2370	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3770	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3001	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.2130	1.2894	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Weston Wilson (642215) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 10

All-history rows before 20260511: 10

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2353

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	1.700	1.000	1.300	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.098	0.333
predicted_BB	0.735	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.435	0.667	-0.185	-0.417
predicted_R	0.441	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	0.700	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.098	0.333
predicted_SO	0.735	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.735	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	0.034
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.720	0.220
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.684	-0.050
predicted_H	0.493	0.143
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.153	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.316	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.2000	0.2000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	8	-	17.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2353	0.4348	0.2353	0.2353	0.2941	0.2941
season	0.20	8	-	17.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2353	0.4348	0.2353	0.2353	0.2941	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.0360
predicted_AVG	0.2300
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_H	0.6980
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3600
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.2140
predicted_SLG	0.3155
predicted_SO	0.6890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0820	0.0337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.0360	2.7202	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7350	0.6120	0.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.6980	0.4930	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0550	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3600	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.3880	0.4192	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.2140	0.1527	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3155	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.6890	0.7161	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	642215
playerID	642215
playerName	Weston Wilson
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2624

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.525	2.000	-1.525	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.101	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	1.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.925	0.000	-0.925	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.600	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.426	0.500	0.174	0.100
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.142	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.000	-0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.825	2.000	0.175	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.325	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.101	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.142	-
predicted_SO	0.825	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.152
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.288	-0.432
predicted_AVG	0.101	0.000
predicted_BB	1.270	0.270
predicted_H	0.334	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.018	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000
predicted_R	0.754	0.104
predicted_RBI	0.141	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.142	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.306

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.090 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	0.0000	0.4091	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6923	0.6154
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	15.000	13.000	0.0714	0.3953	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0357	0.5357	0.4643
season	0.20	40	-	141.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	26.000	40.000	33.000	0.2624	0.4262	0.3759	0.2624	0.0071	0.0851	0.2837	0.2340

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9880
predicted_AVG	0.1010
predicted_BB	1.4580
predicted_H	0.3020
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0170
predicted_OBP	0.3934
predicted_R	0.8260
predicted_RBI	0.1280
predicted_SLG	0.1417
predicted_SO	1.3430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3250	0.0670	0.1726	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	2.9880	3.2877	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1010	0.1010	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4580	1.2705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.3020	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0170	0.0182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3934	0.3932	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.8260	0.7539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1280	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1420	0.1417	0.1418	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8250	1.3430	1.1309	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 30

All-history rows before 20260511: 30

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1600

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.172	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	3.000	-0.133	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.172	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.200	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.328	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.149	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.172	-0.095
predicted_H	0.479	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.172	-0.000
predicted_R	0.269	-0.031
predicted_RBI	0.144	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	1.189	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	13.000	0.0968	0.0968	0.0968	0.0968	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4194
season	0.20	30	-	100.000	16.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	8.000	34.000	0.1600	0.2222	0.2800	0.1600	0.0300	0.1100	0.0800	0.3400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3240
predicted_AVG	0.1487
predicted_BB	0.0960
predicted_H	0.4940
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.1718
predicted_R	0.2440
predicted_RBI	0.1470
predicted_SLG	0.2003
predicted_SO	1.2330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0500	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3240	3.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1487	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.0960	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.4940	0.4790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1720	0.1718	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.2440	0.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1470	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2000	0.2003	0.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	1.2330	1.1888	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Brandon Young (687064) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 4

All-history rows before 20260511: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.500	3.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.050	6.000	-0.850	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.500	5.000	1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	20.200	10.000	22.000	8.000	14.000	3.000	4.3548	1.4516	0.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.6774	0.1452
last_10	0.35	4	20.200	10.000	22.000	8.000	14.000	3.000	4.3548	1.4516	0.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.6774	0.1452
season	0.20	4	20.200	10.000	22.000	8.000	14.000	3.000	4.3548	1.4516	0.4839	1.0645	0.3871	0.6774	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9070
predicted_ER	2.3510
predicted_ERA	4.2642
predicted_H	4.9370
predicted_HR	0.6740
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.1330
predicted_WHIP	1.3790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9070	1.9614	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3510	2.1458	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2642	4.2642	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.9370	4.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6740	1.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.1330	4.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3790	1.3790	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	2
BF	24
Pitches	110

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.35
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	687064
playerID	687064
playerName	Brandon Young
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.874	1.000	0.326	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429	1.0714	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	1.0000	0.5556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444	1.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	19	18.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	0.5000	0.4444	0.0556	0.0556	0.3889	1.1111	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6120
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	2.6310
predicted_H	0.7890
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4080
predicted_WHIP	1.0089

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6120	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4060	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6310	2.6310	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7890	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1330	0.0537	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4080	0.5684	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0089	1.0089	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	3.889	4.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.622	2.000	0.578	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0385	0.4615	0.1154	0.3462	0.1154	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	18	14.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5000	0.1429	0.4286	0.0714	0.7857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_ER	0.4550
predicted_ERA	2.9150
predicted_H	0.9940
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1080
predicted_WHIP	0.9724

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.3720	2.0052	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.4550	2.6581	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9150	2.9150	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9940	2.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0541	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1080	1.0409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9724	0.9724	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	9
Pitches	42

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	1.000	0.014	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	1.000	1.571	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	1.5882	1.5882	0.1765	0.7059	0.8823	0.8823
last_10	0.35	7	9.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.6667	0.7778	1.1111
season	0.20	7	9.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.6667	0.7778	1.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_ER	0.4970
predicted_ERA	3.5314
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HR	0.1200
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2050
predicted_WHIP	1.3824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6420	0.2175	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4970	0.8296	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5314	3.5314	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1080	1.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1200	0.0407	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2050	2.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3824	1.3824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	-0.143
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	1.000	0.357
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	19.6364	4.3636	2.1818	3.5455	0.8182	1.6364	0.2727
last_10	0.35	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765
season	0.20	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4220
predicted_ER	0.7020
predicted_ERA	6.7282
predicted_H	1.2800
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9990
predicted_WHIP	1.8131

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4220	0.8236	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7020	0.9091	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7282	6.7282	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2800	1.7803	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9990	0.9997	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8131	1.8131	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	12.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.886	1.000	-0.686	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	7	6.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	9.4500	1.6500	1.0500	1.6500	1.0500	0.3000
season	0.20	7	6.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	9.4500	1.6500	1.0500	1.6500	1.0500	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	4.0915
predicted_H	0.7080
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6970
predicted_WHIP	1.2632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2220	0.0702	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3350	0.7899	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0915	4.0915	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7080	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6970	1.5882	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2632	1.2632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260511_SEA@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 HOU", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 1 HOU", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: SEA

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2587

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.146	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.146	0.000	0.854	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.488	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.488	4.000	0.512	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.241	0.500
predicted_BB	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.902	0.000	1.098	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.165	0.500
predicted_R	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.488	0.000	-0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.512	0.000	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.372	0.750
predicted_SO	0.951	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.951	0.000	-0.951	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.488	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.317	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.488	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.951	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.092
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.410	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	0.000
predicted_H	0.687	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.246	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.306	-0.182
predicted_RBI	0.435	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.337	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.2857	0.2000	0.0000	0.1429	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.20	41	-	143.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	21.000	20.000	13.000	39.000	0.2587	0.3354	0.3776	0.2587	0.0210	0.1469	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.2169
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	0.7280
predicted_HBP	0.2460
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.1760
predicted_RBI	0.4600
predicted_SLG	0.3365
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1460	0.3030	0.2376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4880	3.3550	3.4104	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2169	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7280	0.6872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2460	0.2460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4880	0.1760	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4600	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3365	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9510	1.1210	1.0502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 32

All-history rows before 20260511: 32

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2054

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.045
predicted_BB	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.812	0.000	-0.812
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.719	1.000	0.281
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.250	-0.114
predicted_R	0.594	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	-0.594
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	0.000	-0.344
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.250	-0.089
predicted_SO	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	1.000	0.281

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.812	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.526	0.026
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.775	-0.037
predicted_H	0.726	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.604	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.414	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.792	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.2353	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.1389	0.2500	0.1944
season	0.20	32	-	112.000	23.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	23.000	0.2054	0.3643	0.3393	0.2054	0.0357	0.0982	0.2321	0.2054

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5450
predicted_AVG	0.2144
predicted_BB	0.7470
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_OBP	0.3528
predicted_R	0.6110
predicted_RBI	0.4320
predicted_SLG	0.4006
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0450	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.5450	3.5259	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2144	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8120	0.7470	0.7746	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7600	0.7260	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2030	0.1932	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3528	0.3529	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.6110	0.6038	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4320	0.4142	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4006	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.8460	0.7921	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.220	0.000	0.780	1.000
predicted_3B	0.024	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.024	0.000	-0.024	0.000
predicted_AB	3.585	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.585	3.000	0.415	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.333	0.221	0.167
predicted_BB	0.415	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.415	0.000	-0.415	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	1.000	-0.049	-1.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.073	0.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.500	0.132	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.634	0.000	0.366	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.317	1.000	-0.317	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.333	0.335	0.417
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.220	-
predicted_3B	0.024	-
predicted_AB	3.585	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.415	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.634	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.091
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.655	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.123
predicted_H	0.961	0.061
predicted_HBP	0.236	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.547	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.248	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.342	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.3056	0.2222	0.0278	0.0556	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.20	41	-	147.000	41.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	26.000	17.000	41.000	0.2789	0.3684	0.4150	0.2789	0.0204	0.0884	0.1157	0.2789

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.2710
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	1.0040
predicted_HBP	0.2360
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3486
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.2610
predicted_SLG	0.3415
predicted_SO	1.2210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2200	0.0650	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0240	0.0060	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5850	3.7040	3.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2710	0.2710	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4150	0.2060	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0040	0.9610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2360	0.2360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3486	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6340	0.4860	0.5471	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2610	0.2482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3415	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2210	1.1297	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2716

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	1.000	0.805	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.951	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.951	4.000	0.049	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.250	-0.022	0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.341	0.000	0.659	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.073	1.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.063	0.150
predicted_R	0.512	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.512	1.000	0.488	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.439	0.000	0.561	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.579	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.432	0.500	0.068	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.951	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.341	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.512	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.579	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.976	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	-0.061
predicted_H	1.156	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.335	-0.000
predicted_R	0.608	0.096
predicted_RBI	0.473	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.579	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.951

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.6500	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	13.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	11.000	0.3171	0.3488	0.6585	0.3171	0.0976	0.1463	0.0488	0.2683
season	0.20	41	-	162.000	44.000	8.000	6.000	18.000	21.000	14.000	41.000	0.2716	0.3371	0.4321	0.2716	0.0370	0.1111	0.0864	0.2531

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9930
predicted_AVG	0.2922
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	1.1670
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_OBP	0.3346
predicted_R	0.6750
predicted_RBI	0.4760
predicted_SLG	0.5785
predicted_SO	1.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1960	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9510	3.9930	3.9757	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2922	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3410	0.2370	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1670	1.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3140	0.3124	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3346	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5120	0.6750	0.6080	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4760	0.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5790	0.5785	0.5787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1610	1.0948	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 25

All-history rows before 20260511: 25

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.760	0.000	-0.760	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	1.000	0.280	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.440	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.850	0.050
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.314	0.034
predicted_H	0.676	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.425	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.202	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.073

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	0.2692	0.3448	0.4615	0.2692	0.0385	0.0769	0.1154	0.3462
season	0.20	25	-	70.000	19.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	18.000	0.2714	0.3418	0.5000	0.2714	0.0429	0.1571	0.1000	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.8940
predicted_AVG	0.2564
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.7420
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3377
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.4071
predicted_SO	0.8560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.2150	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.8940	2.8502	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2564	0.2562	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.3440	0.3142	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7420	0.6758	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0664	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3377	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4400	0.4120	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2220	0.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.8560	0.7926	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2550

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	1.000	-0.105	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.921	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.921	3.000	1.079	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.365	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.667	-0.055	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	1.000	-0.342	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.750	-0.117	-0.550
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.527	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	1.000	-0.183	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.921	-
predicted_AVG	0.365	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	1.420	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.527	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.149	0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.897	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	-0.016
predicted_H	1.417	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.141
predicted_RBI	0.539	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.527	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	-0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.361 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.921

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4737	0.5238	0.6842	0.4737	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3500	0.3810	0.4750	0.3500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	38	-	149.000	38.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	13.000	26.000	0.2550	0.3171	0.3826	0.2550	0.0336	0.1342	0.0872	0.1745

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8800
predicted_AVG	0.3647
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	1.4150
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.4129
predicted_R	0.5570
predicted_RBI	0.5390
predicted_SLG	0.5267
predicted_SO	0.5770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1810	0.1494	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9210	3.8800	3.8970	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3650	0.3647	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3150	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4200	1.4150	1.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4129	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.5570	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5390	0.5394	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5270	0.5267	0.5268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.5770	0.6214	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	5.000	1.526	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.073	0.200
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.000	-0.188	0.200
predicted_R	0.421	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.455	0.000	-0.055	0.400
predicted_SO	0.684	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	1.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.670	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.638	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.396	-0.025
predicted_H	0.863	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.192	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	-0.000
predicted_R	0.425	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.426	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.681	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2286	0.3488	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	13.000	0.2727	0.3875	0.4545	0.2727	0.0454	0.1212	0.1212	0.1970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.2372
predicted_BB	0.3740
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.1920
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.3377
predicted_R	0.4290
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.3339
predicted_SO	0.6790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0970	0.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6700	3.6110	3.6384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2372	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3740	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8570	0.8630	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1920	0.1920	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0820	0.0811	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3377	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.4290	0.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4230	0.4263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3339	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.6790	0.6813	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 28

All-history rows before 20260511: 28

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	2.000	0.714	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.239	0.500
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	0.000	1.143	2.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.187	0.500
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.300	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.652	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.554	0.000	0.196	0.750
predicted_SO	1.321	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.321	2.000	-1.321	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	1.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.652	-
predicted_SO	1.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.134	-0.152
predicted_AVG	0.243	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.201	0.022
predicted_H	0.735	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.388	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.029
predicted_RBI	1.296	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.652	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.228	-0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.118

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3077	0.3571	1.0000	0.3077	0.2308	0.7692	0.0769	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1481	0.2069	0.4815	0.1482	0.1111	0.3704	0.0741	0.4074
season	0.20	28	-	92.000	24.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	21.000	12.000	5.000	37.000	0.2609	0.3131	0.5543	0.2609	0.0761	0.2283	0.0544	0.4022

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0530
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.0110
predicted_AVG	0.2429
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.7310
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.3870
predicted_OBP	0.2981
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	1.2920
predicted_SLG	0.6517
predicted_SO	1.1530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0530	0.0933	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0080	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.0110	3.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2429	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.2180	0.2005	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7310	0.7350	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3870	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4820	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.3000	1.2920	1.2956	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6520	0.6517	0.6518	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3210	1.1530	1.2283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.1560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1565

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	1.000	0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.140	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.250	0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	1.405	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	2.000	-0.405	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.973	-
predicted_AVG	0.079	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.290	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.140	-
predicted_R	0.351	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.175	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.968	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.079	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.101
predicted_H	0.303	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.106	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.140	-0.000
predicted_R	0.261	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.175	0.000
predicted_SO	1.553	0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.076 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.973

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	0.0500	0.1136	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.0750	0.4500
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	17.000	52.000	0.1565	0.2410	0.3265	0.1565	0.0476	0.1157	0.1157	0.3537

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9650
predicted_AVG	0.0787
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.3120
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.1395
predicted_R	0.1970
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.1751
predicted_SO	1.6580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0470	0.0723	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9730	3.9650	3.9683	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0790	0.0787	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.2870	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2900	0.3120	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1100	0.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1400	0.1395	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3510	0.1970	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2710	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1750	0.1751	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.6580	1.5531	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.156

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

George Kirby (669923) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 8

All-history rows before 20260511: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.125	2.000	-2.125	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.325	7.000	-2.125	-2.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.875	5.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	9.000	32.000	7.000	23.000	1.000	2.5312	1.2188	0.2812	1.0000	0.2188	0.7188	0.0312
last_10	0.35	8	52.000	17.000	45.000	12.000	39.000	4.000	2.9423	1.0962	0.3269	0.8654	0.2308	0.7500	0.0769
season	0.20	8	52.000	17.000	45.000	12.000	39.000	4.000	2.9423	1.0962	0.3269	0.8654	0.2308	0.7500	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6340
predicted_ER	2.0790
predicted_ERA	3.2503
predicted_H	5.4710
predicted_HR	0.4470
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	4.7010
predicted_WHIP	1.2341

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6340	1.8216	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.0790	1.0135	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2503	3.2503	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.4710	3.6921	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4470	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.7010	4.8542	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2341	1.2341	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.94
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669923
playerID	669923
playerName	George Kirby
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	1.106	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	2.000	0.438	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	8.0000	1.4444	0.8889	1.1111	0.3333	1.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	16	15.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	6.0000	1.4000	0.6667	0.9333	0.4667	1.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6260
predicted_ER	0.8540
predicted_ERA	4.7252
predicted_H	1.5250
predicted_HR	0.2570
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.9930
predicted_WHIP	1.3227

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6260	0.8559	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8540	0.3290	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7252	4.7252	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5250	1.8170	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2570	0.0990	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.9930	1.9973	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3227	1.3227	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

José A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 21

All-history rows before 20260511: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.190	0.000	0.810	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.852	1.000	0.248	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.762	0.000	1.238	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000	0.9375
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	1.000	12.000	2.000	9.000	0.7500	1.1667	0.0833	1.0000	0.1667	0.7500
season	0.20	20	20.000	4.000	24.000	3.000	16.000	1.8000	1.3500	0.2000	1.2000	0.1500	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_ER	0.4050
predicted_ERA	2.9472
predicted_H	1.2480
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1230
predicted_WHIP	1.2606

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3120	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4050	0.7533	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9472	2.9472	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2480	1.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0890	0.6223	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1230	1.6364	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2606	1.2606	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	José A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 20

All-history rows before 20260511: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.770	1.000	0.230	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.700	1.000	2.300	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.7857	1.7143	0.6429	1.5000	0.2143	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	11.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.1786	0.1071	0.6429	0.1071
season	0.20	20	18.200	5.000	17.000	6.000	14.000	1.000	2.4107	1.2321	0.2679	0.9107	0.3214	0.7500	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_ER	0.4770
predicted_ERA	4.2956
predicted_H	1.0800
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8740
predicted_WHIP	1.3836

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3040	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4770	0.1944	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2956	4.2956	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0800	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1350	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	0.8740	2.1338	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3836	1.3836	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 13

All-history rows before 20260511: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.000	-1.038	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	1.000	0.846	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	13	16.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	3.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.6735	0.1837	0.9184	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2250
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	3.5531
predicted_H	0.6720
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7900
predicted_WHIP	1.0882

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2250	0.0886	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3250	0.1280	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5531	3.5531	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6720	0.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7900	1.5235	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0882	1.0882	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: HOU

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2431

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	0.730	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.892	4.000	0.108	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.077	0.000
predicted_R	0.649	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.649	0.000	-0.649	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.250	0.125	0.250
predicted_SO	0.838	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.649	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	0.838	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.972	-0.138
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.180
predicted_H	0.868	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.095
predicted_RBI	0.230	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	0.932	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.120)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2750	0.2000	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.2250
season	0.20	37	-	144.000	35.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	24.000	17.000	31.000	0.2431	0.3272	0.3750	0.2431	0.0208	0.0625	0.1181	0.2153

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8740
predicted_AVG	0.2182
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2683
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.3062
predicted_SO	0.9990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.2370	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	3.8740	3.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2182	0.2181	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.1510	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8450	0.8679	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6490	0.4860	0.5538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2220	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3062	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8380	0.9990	0.9320	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 5

All-history rows before 20260511: 5

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.286	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.214	0.000	0.286	0.500
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	0.250	0.750
predicted_SO	1.200	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.046	0.247
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.064	0.064
predicted_H	0.685	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.268	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.4286
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2143	0.2143	0.5000	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.2348
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2768
predicted_R	0.3890
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4287
predicted_SO	1.0090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1920	0.1971	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.4810	3.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2348	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1780	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8180	0.6853	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1550	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3890	0.2684	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4540	0.3813	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4287	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.0090	1.1309	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 35

All-history rows before 20260511: 35

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2598

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.250	-0.260	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.250	-0.356	-0.250
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.250	-0.386	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.657	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.657	1.000	1.343	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	0.657	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.531	-0.098
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.361	-0.039
predicted_H	0.839	-0.021
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	-0.128
predicted_RBI	0.291	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.653	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.308)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3902	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.0571	0.1429	0.1714
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	33.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	14.000	23.000	0.2598	0.3562	0.3858	0.2598	0.0236	0.1260	0.1102	0.1811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4600
predicted_AVG	0.2377
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3282
predicted_R	0.2350
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.3326
predicted_SO	0.6510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2270	0.2156	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.4600	3.5313	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2377	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3320	0.3607	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8230	0.8386	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.2350	0.3287	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.2840	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6570	0.6510	0.6535	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 41

All-history rows before 20260511: 41

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3179

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.683	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.683	4.000	-0.683	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.585	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.585	0.000	0.415	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	-1.171	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.317	0.000	-0.317	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.000	-0.172	0.250
predicted_R	0.659	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.659	0.000	-0.659	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.707	0.000	-0.707	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.642	0.000	-0.642	0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.634	4.000	0.366	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.683	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	0.585	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.659	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.634	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.586	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	-0.116
predicted_H	0.752	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.185	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	-0.203
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.974	0.340

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, weight=0.155, BvP AVG=0.158)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	0.1622	0.2439	0.2703	0.1622	0.0270	0.0541	0.0811	0.3784
season	0.20	41	-	151.000	48.000	10.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	24.000	26.000	0.3179	0.4222	0.6424	0.3179	0.0861	0.1920	0.1589	0.1722

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5180
predicted_AVG	0.2104
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.2964
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.4050
predicted_SLG	0.4165
predicted_SO	1.2100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2440	0.1770	0.2045	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6830	3.5180	3.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2104	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5850	0.3890	0.4694	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7400	0.7523	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1810	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2964	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6590	0.3150	0.4562	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4050	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4165	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6340	1.2100	0.9736	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Braden Shewmake (669699) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 5

All-history rows before 20260511: 5

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.333	-0.044	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.333	-0.044	-0.083
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.647	1.333	-0.397	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	1.400	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.497	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.067
predicted_H	0.830	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.199	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.576	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.387	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.660	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.20	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.6471	0.2941	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1110
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.2624
predicted_BB	0.1750
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.3017
predicted_R	0.5380
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4864
predicted_SO	0.7580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1110	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6550	3.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2624	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1750	0.0666	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9590	0.8295	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2300	0.1990	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3017	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.5380	0.5764	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4460	0.3865	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4864	0.4862	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.7580	0.6601	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669699
playerID	669699
playerName	Braden Shewmake
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2838

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.034	0.250
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.050	0.000	-0.050	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	0.775	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.102	0.250
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.675	0.000	0.325	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.527	0.000	0.473	1.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.093
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.731	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	-0.109
predicted_H	0.690	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.071
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.735	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2162	0.2750	0.3784	0.2162	0.0541	0.0811	0.0541	0.2162
season	0.20	40	-	148.000	42.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	24.000	14.000	30.000	0.2838	0.3515	0.5270	0.2838	0.0608	0.1824	0.0946	0.2027

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7530
predicted_AVG	0.1897
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.2281
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3623
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.0660	0.1320	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7530	3.7310	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1897	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.1630	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7120	0.6904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1920	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2281	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4790	0.5292	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3530	0.3435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3623	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7250	0.7354	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2090

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.526	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.526	2.000	-0.526	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.000	-0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.421	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	1.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.242	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.333	-0.051	-0.083
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_SO	1.132	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.132	1.000	0.868	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.526	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.242	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.233	-
predicted_SO	1.132	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.450	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.387	-0.034
predicted_H	0.523	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.242	-0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.266	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.233	0.000
predicted_SO	1.027	-0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.0667	0.1765	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.1389	0.0833	0.3056
season	0.20	38	-	134.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	16.000	43.000	0.2090	0.3007	0.3209	0.2090	0.0224	0.1119	0.1194	0.3209

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0790
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3950
predicted_AVG	0.1570
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.5330
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2419
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.2330
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0790	0.1121	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5260	3.3950	3.4499	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1570	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.3630	0.3873	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5330	0.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0580	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2420	0.2419	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.3080	0.3554	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2710	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2330	0.2330	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1320	0.9510	1.0269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	2.000	-1.471	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.000	-0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.059	0.000	-1.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.333	-0.036	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.460	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	-0.029
predicted_H	0.702	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.766	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, weight=0.107, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.3750	0.1875	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.1818	0.2703	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.1212	0.1818
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	18.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	6.000	12.000	0.3051	0.3692	0.5254	0.3051	0.0508	0.2034	0.1017	0.2034

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4500
predicted_AVG	0.2202
predicted_BB	0.2960
predicted_H	0.7600
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2843
predicted_R	0.3150
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.3775
predicted_SO	0.8230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.0840	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.4500	3.4602	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2202	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2960	0.3236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7600	0.7020	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2843	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3150	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3480	0.3200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3775	0.3777	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.8230	0.7664	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 24

All-history rows before 20260511: 24

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2179

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.000	-0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	-0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.000	-0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	1.833	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.076	0.034
predicted_AB	3.417	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	0.002
predicted_H	0.713	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.487	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.117

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.4706	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.2432	0.2927	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.1622	0.0811	0.2973
season	0.20	24	-	78.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	6.000	28.000	0.2179	0.2706	0.4487	0.2180	0.0513	0.1538	0.0769	0.3590

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.1050
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2176
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2694
predicted_R	0.5470
predicted_RBI	0.4160
predicted_SLG	0.4449
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0710	0.1152	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.1050	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.5600	3.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2176	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2540	0.2522	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7750	0.7129	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1760	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2694	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5470	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4160	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4449	0.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	0.9500	1.0499	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Peter Lambert (663567) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 4

All-history rows before 20260511: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.525	7.000	-0.425	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.750	4.000	-0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	22.100	6.000	15.000	11.000	23.000	2.4179	1.1642	0.2687	0.6716	0.4925	1.0298
last_10	0.35	4	22.100	6.000	15.000	11.000	23.000	2.4179	1.1642	0.2687	0.6716	0.4925	1.0298
season	0.20	4	22.100	6.000	15.000	11.000	23.000	2.4179	1.1642	0.2687	0.6716	0.4925	1.0298

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3630
predicted_ER	2.0730
predicted_ERA	3.4034
predicted_H	4.4960
predicted_HR	0.3910
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.4240
predicted_WHIP	1.2513

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3630	2.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0730	2.0303	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4034	3.4034	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.4960	3.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3910	0.1624	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	5.1000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.4240	5.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2513	1.2513	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	99

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663567
playerID	663567
playerName	Peter Lambert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	0.100	0.279	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	0.000	-0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.7500	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	9.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	0.9000	1.1000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	12.200	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.2368	2.2895	1.0263	1.0263	1.2632	1.5790	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6750
predicted_ER	0.5830
predicted_ERA	4.2939
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3840
predicted_WHIP	1.4642

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6750	0.2491	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5830	1.4771	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2939	4.2939	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	1.1140	3.5661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3840	1.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4642	1.4642	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.24
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.127	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	2.000	-0.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	6.0968	1.3548	0.6774	1.0645	0.2903	0.9677	0.0000
season	0.20	15	16.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.1875	0.5000	0.9375	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_ER	0.5380
predicted_ERA	4.0195
predicted_H	1.0650
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1680
predicted_WHIP	1.2076

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3890	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5380	0.8190	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0195	4.0195	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0650	1.6337	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0392	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1680	0.4575	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2076	1.2076	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Kai-Wei Teng (678906) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 15

All-history rows before 20260511: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	3.000	0.400	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.547	3.000	-0.447	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.533	1.000	-1.533	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	6.000	13.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	5.5862	1.5517	0.6207	1.3448	0.2069	0.7241	0.1035
last_10	0.35	10	18.100	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2000	0.3818	0.8182	0.3818	0.8727	0.0546
season	0.20	15	26.000	9.000	20.000	8.000	23.000	3.000	3.1154	1.0769	0.3462	0.7692	0.3077	0.8846	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5480
predicted_ER	0.7770
predicted_ERA	4.2669
predicted_H	1.6270
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.4440
predicted_WHIP	1.3274

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5480	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7770	0.9014	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2669	4.2669	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6270	1.2773	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1770	0.0783	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4440	0.6386	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3274	1.3274	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	15
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.12
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	63
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	40
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	678906
playerID	678906
playerName	Kai-Wei Teng
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 13

All-history rows before 20260511: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	2.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	2.000	-1.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	13.000	4.000	10.000	3.4615	1.3077	0.3846	1.0000	0.3077	0.7692
season	0.20	13	15.200	6.000	16.000	5.000	15.000	3.4468	1.3404	0.3830	1.0213	0.3191	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_ER	0.5240
predicted_ERA	4.4096
predicted_H	1.0750
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.3669

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3880	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5240	0.2042	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4096	4.4096	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0750	1.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0850	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9180	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3669	1.3669	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260511_SF@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.517, "home_win_probability": 0.517, "away_win_probability": 0.483, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence": 0.517, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SF 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SF 3 - 5 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: SF

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	6.000	1.231	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.333	-0.272	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	2.000	-1.026	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.333	-0.316	-0.333
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	1.000	-0.410	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.500	-0.388	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.513	1.000	-0.513	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.513	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.104	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	-0.075
predicted_H	0.958	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.382	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.525	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2609	0.2609	0.3043	0.2609	0.0000	0.0435	0.0000	0.0870
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1707	0.1905	0.1951	0.1707	0.0000	0.0244	0.0244	0.1220
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	16.000	10.000	20.000	0.2721	0.3165	0.3878	0.2721	0.0136	0.0748	0.0680	0.1361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1860
predicted_AVG	0.2336
predicted_BB	0.1280
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2567
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.2350
predicted_SLG	0.3008
predicted_SO	0.5340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1740	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	4.1860	4.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2336	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.1280	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9780	0.9580	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2567	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.3620	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2350	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3008	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5130	0.5340	0.5252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2708

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	1.000	0.730	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.892	6.000	0.108	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.333	0.229	0.167
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.054	2.000	0.946	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	1.000	-0.108	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.333	0.197	0.167
predicted_R	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.459	3.000	0.541	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.459	2.000	-0.459	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.438	1.000	0.312	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.162	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	0.000	-0.162	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.892	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.310	0.040
predicted_3B	0.032	0.005
predicted_AB	3.985	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	0.014
predicted_H	1.075	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.137	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.142
predicted_RBI	0.444	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.485	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.062	-0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.99), rates preserved: AVG=0.270 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.892

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.5238	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.5122	0.2927	0.0244	0.0732	0.0488	0.1707
season	0.20	37	-	144.000	39.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	7.000	43.000	0.2708	0.3026	0.4375	0.2708	0.0278	0.1181	0.0486	0.2986

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	4.0530
predicted_AVG	0.2785
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_H	1.1290
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3157
predicted_R	0.7040
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.4848
predicted_SO	0.9900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.3390	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0360	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8920	4.0530	3.9854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2785	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.2130	0.2029	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1290	1.0749	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1420	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3157	0.3158	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.7040	0.6012	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4680	0.4437	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4848	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	0.9900	1.0622	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3103

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.919	4.000	0.081	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.216	2.000	-0.216	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.216	1.000	-1.216	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.500	-0.342	-0.500
predicted_R	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.250	-0.386	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.189	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.189	0.000	0.811	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.216	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.405	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.287	0.098
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.896	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.045
predicted_H	1.085	-0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.546	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.274	0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3684	0.2632	0.1579	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	5.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4250	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.0750
season	0.20	37	-	145.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	15.000	8.000	7.000	0.3103	0.3419	0.3862	0.3103	0.0965	0.0552	0.0483

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3570
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8780
predicted_AVG	0.2788
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.3303
predicted_R	0.4940
predicted_RBI	0.5430
predicted_SLG	0.3924
predicted_SO	0.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.3570	0.2867	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0110	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.8780	3.8956	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2788	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2160	0.2940	0.2614	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0810	1.0848	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3303	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4050	0.4940	0.4568	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5430	0.5459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3924	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1890	0.3350	0.2739	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 33

All-history rows before 20260511: 33

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2846

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	4.000	0.273	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	-0.035	0.250
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	0.000	-0.061	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.000	-0.081	0.250
predicted_R	0.424	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.512	0.000	-0.262	0.250
predicted_SO	0.818	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.469	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.096
predicted_3B	0.033	0.003
predicted_AB	3.779	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.168	0.016
predicted_H	0.866	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.253	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.469	0.000
predicted_SO	0.858	0.040

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.4737	0.1579	0.1053	0.1579	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3171	0.4872	0.2821	0.0513	0.1282	0.0256	0.2051
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	14.000	5.000	27.000	0.2846	0.3308	0.5122	0.2846	0.0488	0.1463	0.0406	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.8170
predicted_AVG	0.2300
predicted_BB	0.1800
predicted_H	0.8780
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.2743
predicted_R	0.4220
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.4694
predicted_SO	0.8870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.0740	0.1459	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0360	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.8170	3.7785	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2300	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1800	0.1680	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8780	0.8660	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2560	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2743	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.4220	0.4229	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5400	0.5314	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4690	0.4694	0.4692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.8870	0.8575	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2349

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	2.000	-0.205	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	5.000	-1.821	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.400	-0.235	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	2.000	-0.897	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.500	0.187	0.000
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.800	-0.322	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.974	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	1.000	1.026	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.175	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.058
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.828	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.337	-0.048
predicted_H	0.646	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.273	-0.137
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	0.963	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2632	0.1579	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.1282	0.2273	0.2051	0.1282	0.0000	0.0256	0.1026	0.3077
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	16.000	15.000	38.000	0.2349	0.3133	0.3221	0.2349	0.0067	0.0872	0.1007	0.2550

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8330
predicted_AVG	0.1754
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.6720
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.2580
predicted_R	0.1760
predicted_RBI	0.2360
predicted_SLG	0.2762
predicted_SO	0.9550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.3040	0.2629	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.8330	3.8280	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1750	0.1754	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3030	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6720	0.6463	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.1760	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2360	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2762	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.9550	0.9629	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 5

All-history rows before 20260511: 5

System season_avg: 0.3530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3530

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	6.000	-0.400	-3.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.353	0.167	0.314	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.389	0.167	0.361	0.583
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	2.400	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	1.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.167	1.137	1.500
predicted_SO	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.497	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	0.066
predicted_H	0.905	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.099	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.270	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.455	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.446	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177
season	0.20	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.5294	0.3529	0.0588	0.1765	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.2851
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0990
predicted_HR	0.1530
predicted_OBP	0.3371
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.4457
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1080	0.0417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.6500	3.4965	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2851	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1710	0.0660	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0410	0.9053	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0990	0.0990	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1530	0.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3371	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.3800	0.2695	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5260	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4457	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.6740	0.5057	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.353

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2318

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	2.000	-0.200	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	4.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.500	-0.232	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.600	-0.276	-0.600
predicted_R	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.225	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.225	0.000	2.775	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.325	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.593	-
predicted_SO	1.225	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	0.080
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.673	-0.102
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.251	0.001
predicted_H	1.040	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.249	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.477	0.152
predicted_RBI	0.442	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.593	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.148	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.7778	0.3333	0.1111	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2941	0.3421	0.5882	0.2941	0.0588	0.1471	0.0882	0.2941
season	0.20	40	-	151.000	35.000	8.000	4.000	16.000	13.000	10.000	49.000	0.2318	0.2761	0.3642	0.2318	0.0265	0.1060	0.0662	0.3245

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.2908
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	1.0470
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_OBP	0.3353
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.4430
predicted_SLG	0.5925
predicted_SO	1.0930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3360	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	3.6010	3.6733	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2908	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2520	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	1.0470	1.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2490	0.2494	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3353	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3250	0.5860	0.4775	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4430	0.4418	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5930	0.5925	0.5927	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2250	1.0930	1.1479	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Harrison Bader (664056) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

System season_avg: 0.1200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	0.429
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.120	0.250	0.130
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	1.000	0.571
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071
predicted_OBP	0.195	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.151	0.250	0.099
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.250	0.050
predicted_SO	1.214	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.214	2.000	0.786

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.195	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	1.214	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	0.013
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.648	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.159	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.011
predicted_H	0.530	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.195	-0.000
predicted_R	0.313	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.216	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.1111	0.1538	0.1389	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	14	-	50.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	17.000	0.1200	0.1509	0.2000	0.1200	0.0200	0.0600	0.0400	0.3400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.1587
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.5910
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.1945
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.2297
predicted_SO	1.0800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0970	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7260	3.6481	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1587	0.1589	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1660	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.5910	0.5302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1950	0.1945	0.1948	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.3400	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2430	0.2164	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2140	1.0800	1.1474	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260411_SF@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	664056
playerID	664056
playerName	Harrison Bader
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2089

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.051	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	6.000	-0.051	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.500	0.041	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	3.000	0.154	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.242	0.500	0.008	-0.250
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.205	2.000	-0.205	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.342	0.667	-0.092	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.256	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	1.000	-1.256	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.051	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.035	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	-0.030
predicted_H	0.975	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	-0.180

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.051

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2500	0.2821	0.2308	0.0000	0.0513	0.0256	0.2564
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	33.000	12.000	3.000	8.000	14.000	6.000	49.000	0.2089	0.2424	0.3418	0.2089	0.0190	0.0506	0.0380	0.3101

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0240
predicted_AVG	0.2501
predicted_BB	0.1030
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2709
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.3190
predicted_SLG	0.3291
predicted_SO	0.9480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.2150	0.2536	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0510	4.0240	4.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2501	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.1030	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0060	0.9745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.3490	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3190	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3291	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	0.9480	1.0758	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Trevor McDonald (686790) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 1

All-history rows before 20260511: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	7.000	7.000	-2.800	-2.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	8.000	8.000	-6.000	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	1.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	1	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	1.1429	0.1429
season	0.20	1	7.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.2857	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	1.1429	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6090
predicted_ER	2.0830
predicted_ERA	3.7073
predicted_H	4.1970
predicted_HR	0.6610
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.9960
predicted_WHIP	1.1484

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	6.0000	1.6090	4.6918	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0830	2.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7073	3.7073	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.1970	3.3566	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6610	0.8990	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.9960	2.8926	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1484	1.1484	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	6
SO	2
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	108

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	10
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	81
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	60
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	686790
playerID	686790
playerName	Trevor McDonald
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.935	1.000	0.265	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	0.000	-0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	0.8333	0.8333	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	2.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.5000	1.4167	0.1667	0.6667	0.7500	0.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	17	18.000	3.000	9.000	12.000	18.000	2.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.6667	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8160
predicted_ER	0.5580
predicted_ERA	3.3505
predicted_H	1.2640
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3140
predicted_WHIP	1.3870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8160	0.3294	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5580	0.2253	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3505	3.3505	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2640	0.5103	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1910	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3140	1.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3870	1.3870	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.621	0.200	0.379	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6000	0.9000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	0.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3043	0.0000	0.5217	0.7826	0.3913	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.000	2.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1875	0.1250	0.5625	0.6250	0.6250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4890
predicted_ER	0.2640
predicted_ERA	2.6498
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7100
predicted_WHIP	1.3397

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4890	0.1916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2640	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6498	2.6498	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7110	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7100	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3397	1.3397	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	2.722	3.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.911	1.000	-0.711	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.9286	0.6429	0.2143	0.4286	0.2143	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.4000	0.4000	0.5000
season	0.20	18	17.100	5.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	2.5962	0.8077	0.2885	0.4615	0.3462	0.8077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_ER	0.2950
predicted_ERA	3.3047
predicted_H	0.5850
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5970
predicted_WHIP	1.0803

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2820	0.7129	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.2950	1.9184	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3047	3.3047	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5850	2.0344	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0610	0.6246	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5970	0.8389	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0803	1.0803	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Home Team: LAD

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 40

All-history rows before 20260511: 40

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2411

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.525	4.000	1.475	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.159	0.400
predicted_BB	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.850	0.000	1.150	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	1.850	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.000	0.026	0.400
predicted_R	0.676	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	5.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	4.600	5.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	1.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	1.182	1.600
predicted_SO	1.108	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.025	1.000	-0.025	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.730	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.676	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	1.108	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.806	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.213	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.657	-0.073
predicted_H	0.801	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.675	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.488	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	5.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.1842	0.3261	0.2368	0.1842	0.0000	0.1053	0.1842	0.2632
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	34.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	27.000	41.000	0.2411	0.3736	0.4184	0.2411	0.0425	0.1135	0.1915	0.2908

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8020
predicted_AVG	0.2129
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.3282
predicted_R	0.6750
predicted_RBI	0.4930
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.9970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.1950	0.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.8020	3.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2129	0.2129	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7300	0.6060	0.6571	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8090	0.8012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3282	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6760	0.6750	0.6754	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4930	0.4876	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1080	0.9970	1.0427	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	5
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Mookie Betts (605141) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1786

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	6.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.333	-0.179	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	2.000	-0.714	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.333	-0.258	-0.333
predicted_R	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	2.000	-0.857	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.429	0.833	-0.429	-0.833
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.200	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.018
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.956	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	0.019
predicted_H	0.791	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.032	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	-0.000
predicted_R	0.768	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.593	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.382	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	7	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.1786	0.2581	0.4286	0.1786	0.0714	0.2500	0.0714	0.1429
season	0.20	7	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.1786	0.2581	0.4286	0.1786	0.0714	0.2500	0.0714	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9010
predicted_AVG	0.1999
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	0.7800
predicted_HBP	0.0320
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.2697
predicted_R	0.6550
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.3818
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1840	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9010	3.9562	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2000	0.1999	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3290	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7800	0.7912	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0320	0.0320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1710	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2697	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.6550	0.7677	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.5840	0.5929	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3818	0.3819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7260	0.6395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260403_LAD@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	605141
playerID	605141
playerName	Mookie Betts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 27

All-history rows before 20260511: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2617

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.963	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.963	3.000	-0.963	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.262	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.370	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.370	1.000	0.630	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.037	1.000	-1.037	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.500	-0.072	-0.250
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.593	0.000	-0.593	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.333	-0.374	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.741	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	0.000	-0.741	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.963	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.370	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	0.081
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.886	-0.077
predicted_AVG	0.233	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.371	0.001
predicted_H	0.873	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.356	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.760	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.963

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.3684	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.20	27	-	107.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	12.000	10.000	20.000	0.2617	0.3220	0.3738	0.2617	0.0280	0.1495	0.0935	0.1869

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8260
predicted_AVG	0.2329
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3022
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.3559
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.2550	0.1923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9630	3.8260	3.8857	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2329	0.2329	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3700	0.3720	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8910	0.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0700	0.0700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3022	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.2990	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4010	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3559	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.7740	0.7596	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2870

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.947	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.947	3.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.400	0.667
predicted_BB	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.053	0.000	0.947	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.417	0.500
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.445	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.000	0.240	0.667
predicted_SO	0.553	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.947	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.368	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.445	-
predicted_SO	0.553	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.298	0.035
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.759	-0.188
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	0.043
predicted_H	0.861	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.153	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.478	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.445	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.516	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.947

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.5000	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.4103	0.2564	0.0256	0.1282	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	38	-	150.000	40.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	14.000	21.000	0.2667	0.3333	0.4267	0.2667	0.0267	0.1333	0.0933	0.1400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3230
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.2301
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3154
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.4620
predicted_SLG	0.4449
predicted_SO	0.4900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.3230	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9470	3.6260	3.7592	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2301	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3680	0.4410	0.4107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8340	0.8614	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1480	0.1530	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3154	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3860	0.3785	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4620	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4450	0.4449	0.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5530	0.4900	0.5161	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3356

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	-1.744	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.380	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.333	-0.336	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.256	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	1.000	1.744	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.256	1.000	-1.256	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.500	0.123	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.897	0.000	-0.897	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.782	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.575	0.333	-0.575	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.821	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	0.000	-0.821	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.380	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.430	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	1.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.782	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.788	0.044
predicted_AVG	0.380	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	-0.019
predicted_H	1.385	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.459	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.646	0.056
predicted_RBI	1.074	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.782	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.666	-0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.366 HR/AB=0.121

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.4737	0.5000	1.1053	0.4737	0.2105	0.4210	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	0.3590	0.3902	0.6923	0.3590	0.1026	0.2564	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	49.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	10.000	32.000	0.3356	0.3774	0.5753	0.3356	0.0616	0.2397	0.0685	0.2192

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8200
predicted_AVG	0.3803
predicted_BB	0.2230
predicted_H	1.4530
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.4790
predicted_OBP	0.4162
predicted_R	0.6870
predicted_RBI	1.1270
predicted_SLG	0.7819
predicted_SO	0.5550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2050	0.0930	0.1397	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.8200	3.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3800	0.3803	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.2230	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.4530	1.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4300	0.4790	0.4586	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4162	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.6870	0.6465	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0000	1.1270	1.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7820	0.7819	0.7819	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.5550	0.6659	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 24

All-history rows before 20260511: 24

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2877

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.042	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.042	3.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	0.379	0.667
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	1.125	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.000	0.396	0.750
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.354	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.384	0.000	0.616	1.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	3.000	-0.750	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.042	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.354	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.074	0.032
predicted_AB	3.271	0.229
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.285	-0.048
predicted_H	0.752	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.443	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	0.801	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.0625	0.2188
season	0.20	24	-	73.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	18.000	0.2877	0.3537	0.3836	0.2877	0.0137	0.1096	0.1096	0.2466

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.1020
predicted_AB	3.4690
predicted_AVG	0.2472
predicted_BB	0.2440
predicted_H	0.8570
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2981
predicted_R	0.4650
predicted_RBI	0.2630
predicted_SLG	0.3543
predicted_SO	0.8460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0580	0.0696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.1020	0.0742	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0420	3.4690	3.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2472	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2440	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8570	0.7519	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4650	0.4428	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2630	0.2292	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3540	0.3543	0.3542	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8460	0.8015	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	1.000	-0.789	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.579	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	3.000	0.421	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	-0.947	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.415	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.750	-0.095	-0.500
predicted_R	0.711	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.711	1.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	-0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.415	-
predicted_R	0.711	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	0.072
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.422	-0.367
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.702	0.123
predicted_H	0.934	-0.066
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.415	-0.000
predicted_R	0.673	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.487	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.829	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.3077	0.5000	0.4615	0.3077	0.0000	0.1538	0.3846	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	0.2812	0.4000	0.5000	0.2812	0.0312	0.1562	0.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	27.000	22.000	34.000	0.2500	0.3452	0.3958	0.2500	0.0278	0.1319	0.1528	0.2361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1620
predicted_AVG	0.2804
predicted_BB	0.7880
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.4146
predicted_R	0.6470
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4518
predicted_SO	0.7820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.3590	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.1620	3.4216	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.7880	0.7015	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8870	0.9338	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0600	0.0641	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4150	0.4146	0.4148	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7110	0.6470	0.6735	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.4630	0.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4518	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	0.7820	0.8288	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2756

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.250	-0.276	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.541	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	-0.946	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.124	0.000
predicted_R	0.703	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	2.000	-0.405	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.551	1.000	-0.551	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.973	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.973	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.302	-0.130
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.454	-0.087
predicted_H	0.654	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.565	-0.138
predicted_RBI	0.413	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.943	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.1333	0.1875	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	0.2333	0.3611	0.4000	0.2333	0.0333	0.1333	0.2000	0.2667
season	0.20	37	-	127.000	35.000	5.000	10.000	15.000	26.000	20.000	36.000	0.2756	0.3741	0.5512	0.2756	0.0787	0.1181	0.1575	0.2835

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2070
predicted_AVG	0.2048
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_H	0.6570
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_OBP	0.2890
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.4150
predicted_SLG	0.3994
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1090	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.2070	3.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2048	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.3910	0.4542	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6570	0.6540	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1700	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2890	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	0.4640	0.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4150	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3994	0.3992	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9730	0.9210	0.9429	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 35

All-history rows before 20260511: 35

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.333	-0.238	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.500	-0.317	-0.500
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.333	-0.365	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.076	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.587	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.212	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.382	-0.018
predicted_H	0.708	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.391	-0.123
predicted_RBI	0.202	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	1.296	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	12.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.3529
season	0.20	35	-	126.000	30.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	18.000	14.000	42.000	0.2381	0.3169	0.3651	0.2381	0.0318	0.1349	0.1111	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5770
predicted_AVG	0.2119
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3043
predicted_R	0.3010
predicted_RBI	0.2180
predicted_SLG	0.2592
predicted_SO	1.3660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.0480	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5770	3.5867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2119	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3690	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7580	0.7080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3043	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.3010	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2180	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2592	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.3660	1.2957	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Roki Sasaki (808963) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 6

All-history rows before 20260511: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.167	3.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.700	6.000	0.500	-0.800
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.333	4.000	3.667	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	18.000	29.000	13.000	22.000	8.000	6.5676	1.7027	0.7297	1.1757	0.5270	0.8919	0.3243
last_10	0.35	6	28.200	19.000	33.000	15.000	26.000	8.000	5.9651	1.6744	0.6628	1.1512	0.5233	0.9070	0.2791
season	0.20	6	28.200	19.000	33.000	15.000	26.000	8.000	5.9651	1.6744	0.6628	1.1512	0.5233	0.9070	0.2791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.4320
predicted_ER	3.1930
predicted_ERA	5.4435
predicted_H	5.6290
predicted_HR	1.2240
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.8700
predicted_WHIP	1.5271

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.4320	1.6558	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.1930	2.5464	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4435	5.4435	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.6290	5.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.2240	0.5606	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	4.8700	6.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5271	1.5271	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	8
HR	0
BF	25
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	5.97
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	808963
playerID	808963
playerName	Roki Sasaki
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.686	1.000	0.514	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	13	11.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_ER	0.6070
predicted_ERA	3.8243
predicted_H	1.4080
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5070
predicted_WHIP	1.2949

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4410	0.8010	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6070	0.8601	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8243	3.8243	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4080	1.7892	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2000	0.7152	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5070	0.5365	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2949	1.2949	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.244	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.6531	0.6122	0.1837	0.4898	0.1225	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_ER	0.3910
predicted_ERA	2.9285
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2260
predicted_WHIP	1.0056

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3670	0.1445	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3910	0.1540	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9285	2.9285	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8420	0.3316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0480	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2260	1.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0056	1.0056	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.988	1.100	-0.788	-0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	0.000	0.824	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	0.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000	0.9000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	3.000	9.000	2.000	13.000	1.000	2.1892	0.8919	0.2432	0.7297	0.1622	1.0540	0.0811
season	0.20	17	18.200	5.000	13.000	5.000	20.000	1.000	2.4107	0.9643	0.2679	0.6964	0.2679	1.0714	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_ER	0.3010
predicted_ERA	2.9381
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8950
predicted_WHIP	1.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2460	0.1002	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3010	0.7152	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9381	2.9381	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8110	0.9230	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8950	1.5498	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1460	1.1460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.41
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.100	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.0000	0.5454	1.3636
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	2.5714	0.7143	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	1.5714
season	0.20	16	13.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	1.3846	0.7692	0.1538	0.3077	0.4615	1.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.1570
predicted_ERA	3.1646
predicted_H	0.3010
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4970
predicted_WHIP	1.0922

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1570	0.0583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1646	3.1646	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3010	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0380	0.0141	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4970	1.4417	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0922	1.0922	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 11

All-history rows before 20260511: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	1.000	-1.218	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	1.000	-0.455	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	1.0000	0.4286	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	3.0682	1.5000	0.3409	1.0909	0.4091	1.0227
season	0.20	11	15.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	16.000	2.8723	1.4043	0.3191	1.0213	0.3830	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2820
predicted_ER	0.2920
predicted_ERA	3.6598
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7010
predicted_WHIP	1.3700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2820	0.1099	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2920	0.7242	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6598	3.6598	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7000	0.8831	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0222	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7010	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3700	1.3700	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260511_TB@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 4 - 3 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 5 - 3 TOR", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: TB

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 36

All-history rows before 20260511: 36

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2897

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	4.270	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	4.000	0.972	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.110	0.150
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	0.082	0.150
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.250	0.076	0.150
predicted_SO	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	4.270	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.300	-
predicted_SO	0.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	0.020
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.026
predicted_AB	4.036	-0.234
predicted_AVG	0.263	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	-0.050
predicted_H	1.059	-0.061
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	-0.000
predicted_R	0.493	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.256	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.300	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.556)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.270

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2564	0.2683	0.2821	0.2564	0.0513	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	42.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	7.000	16.000	0.2897	0.3182	0.3241	0.2897	0.0483	0.0483	0.1103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8670
predicted_AVG	0.2626
predicted_BB	0.1080
predicted_H	1.0150
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2809
predicted_R	0.5290
predicted_RBI	0.2450
predicted_SLG	0.3005
predicted_SO	0.5410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0280	0.0630	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2700	3.8670	4.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2626	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.1080	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0150	1.0590	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2809	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5290	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2450	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3000	0.3005	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4440	0.5410	0.5004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 38

All-history rows before 20260511: 38

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2534

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	4.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.250	-0.253	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.289	1.000	-0.289	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.141	-0.050
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.737	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	0.263	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.322	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.752	-0.090
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	-0.015
predicted_H	0.862	-0.018
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.314	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.322	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.509	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.687	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.5000	0.2353	0.0882	0.1177	0.2059	0.2353
season	0.20	38	-	146.000	37.000	3.000	11.000	19.000	24.000	20.000	28.000	0.2534	0.3413	0.5000	0.2534	0.0753	0.1301	0.1370	0.1918

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6880
predicted_AVG	0.2303
predicted_BB	0.5010
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.3220
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4941
predicted_SO	0.6520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0790	0.0400	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.6880	3.7518	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2303	0.2302	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.5010	0.5114	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8490	0.8618	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3100	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3220	0.3220	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.6240	0.6273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5020	0.5095	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4941	0.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.6520	0.6872	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 36

All-history rows before 20260511: 36

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2687

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.722	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.722	3.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	-0.269	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.500	-0.365	-0.500
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	-0.806	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.463	0.333	-0.463	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.056	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	2.000	-1.056	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.722	-
predicted_AVG	0.326	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.012
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.671	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.326	0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	-0.055
predicted_H	1.191	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.457	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	0.987	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4737	0.3684	0.0263	0.1579	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.20	36	-	134.000	36.000	5.000	7.000	29.000	18.000	20.000	38.000	0.2687	0.3648	0.4627	0.2687	0.0522	0.2164	0.1492	0.2836

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.3261
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_H	1.1850
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.4164
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.4360
predicted_SO	0.9370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1590	0.1507	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7220	3.6350	3.6713	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3260	0.3261	0.3261	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4620	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.1850	1.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0790	0.0794	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4164	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4040	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4540	0.4565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4360	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.9370	0.9866	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 21

All-history rows before 20260511: 21

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2050

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.095	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.095	4.000	0.905	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	0.488	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	2.000	2.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.417	0.250
predicted_R	0.238	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	0.000	1.762	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.446	0.500	0.554	0.500
predicted_SO	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.762	1.000	0.238	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.095	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.762	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.150	0.055
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.068
predicted_H	0.829	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000
predicted_SO	0.843	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.2667	0.2667	0.2667	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.3214	0.3871	0.5357	0.3214	0.0357	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.20	21	-	65.000	17.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	7.000	16.000	0.2615	0.3333	0.4462	0.2615	0.0308	0.0769	0.1077	0.2462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1710
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.1990
predicted_AVG	0.2729
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3174
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.3040
predicted_SLG	0.3964
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1710	0.2255	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0950	3.1990	3.1497	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2729	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2040	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8730	0.8289	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0663	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3174	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.2820	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3040	0.2879	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3964	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7620	0.9160	0.8430	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2520

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	2.556	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.556	3.000	1.444	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.131	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	0.076	0.250
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.310	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.000	-0.089	0.250
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.000	0.489	0.750
predicted_SO	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.131	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.310	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	0.015
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.822	0.266
predicted_AVG	0.131	0.000
predicted_BB	0.525	-0.031
predicted_H	0.358	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.026	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.319	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.000
predicted_SO	0.900	0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.127 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0714	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	0.1111	0.2424	0.1481	0.1111	0.0000	0.0370	0.1852	0.3704
season	0.20	18	-	46.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	13.000	0.1739	0.3390	0.2609	0.1739	0.0217	0.0870	0.2174	0.2826

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.0810
predicted_AVG	0.1312
predicted_BB	0.4960
predicted_H	0.4040
predicted_HBP	0.0260
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2540
predicted_R	0.2510
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.2022
predicted_SO	1.0730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0850	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5560	3.0810	2.8225	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1310	0.1312	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.4960	0.5255	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3100	0.4040	0.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0260	0.0260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0361	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2540	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2510	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2570	0.2289	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2022	0.2021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	1.0730	0.9002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 37

All-history rows before 20260511: 37

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027
predicted_AB	3.784	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	0.216
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.250	-0.064
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	-0.351
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.189	1.000	-0.189
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.250	-0.144
predicted_R	0.541	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.541	0.000	-0.541
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.622	0.000	-0.622
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.250	-0.214
predicted_SO	0.541	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.541	0.000	-0.541

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.784	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	0.025
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.757	-0.027
predicted_AVG	0.265	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.109
predicted_H	0.973	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.637	0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, weight=0.133, BvP AVG=0.467)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2857	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3000	0.3611	0.2500	0.0278	0.0833	0.0556	0.1667
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	44.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	13.000	20.000	0.3143	0.3937	0.4643	0.3143	0.0357	0.1643	0.0929	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7380
predicted_AVG	0.2649
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	0.9900
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3113
predicted_R	0.3640
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.3667
predicted_SO	0.7050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1510	0.1331	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7840	3.7380	3.7572	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2649	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.1640	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.9900	0.9733	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0712	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3113	0.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.3640	0.4378	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4180	0.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3667	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5410	0.7050	0.6367	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 14

All-history rows before 20260511: 14

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1690

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.078	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.286	3.000	1.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.333	-0.031	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.333	-0.145	-0.083
predicted_R	0.391	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	0.643	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.333	0.438	0.417
predicted_SO	0.859	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.391	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.391	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.859	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	0.040
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.711	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.047
predicted_H	0.673	0.133
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.036	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.000
predicted_R	0.420	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.381	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.4545	0.3636	0.0000	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	24.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.2917	0.2500	0.0833	0.1250	0.3333
season	0.20	14	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2812	0.3947	0.3125	0.2812	0.0938	0.1562	0.3438

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	2.9540
predicted_AVG	0.2796
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_H	0.8260
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.3650
predicted_R	0.4530
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.3807
predicted_SO	0.8020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0780	0.1640	0.1179	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0023	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.9540	2.7105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2796	0.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3910	0.2890	0.3437	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.8260	0.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0420	0.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3650	0.3650	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3910	0.4530	0.4197	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.2420	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3807	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8590	0.8020	0.8326	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 27

All-history rows before 20260511: 27

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1975

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.302	0.500
predicted_BB	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.593	0.000	1.407	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	0.199	0.500
predicted_R	0.407	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.000	0.265	0.500
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.407	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.974	-0.026
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.430	0.024
predicted_H	0.603	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.325	-0.000
predicted_R	0.318	-0.089
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	-0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.201 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2308	0.3333	0.2308	0.2308	0.1538	0.1538	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.1923	0.3438	0.2308	0.1923	0.0769	0.2308	0.2308
season	0.20	27	-	81.000	16.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	24.000	0.1975	0.3011	0.2346	0.1975	0.0741	0.1358	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.9530
predicted_AVG	0.2189
predicted_BB	0.4500
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.3245
predicted_R	0.2450
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.2715
predicted_SO	0.7060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0810	0.0946	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	2.9530	2.9743	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2189	0.2189	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4070	0.4500	0.4305	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6460	0.6025	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3245	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.2450	0.3184	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3380	0.3163	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2715	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.7060	0.7889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 30

All-history rows before 20260511: 30

System season_avg: 0.1350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1351

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.135	0.333	-0.135	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.192	0.333	-0.192	-0.333
predicted_R	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	1.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.225	0.333	-0.225	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.767	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.767	0.000	0.233	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.267	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	0.767	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.619	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	0.025
predicted_H	0.548	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.000
predicted_R	0.208	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.445	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.203	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.672	-0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.148 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.278)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0857	0.1579	0.0857	0.0857	0.0000	0.0857	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.1351	0.1917	0.2252	0.1351	0.0180	0.0991	0.0541	0.2072

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0440
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5560
predicted_AVG	0.1580
predicted_BB	0.2450
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2161
predicted_R	0.1620
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.2026
predicted_SO	0.5990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0440	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0080	0.0189	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.5560	3.6186	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1580	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2450	0.2254	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5620	0.5481	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2161	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2670	0.1620	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4560	0.4447	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2026	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7670	0.5990	0.6720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.135

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Drew Rasmussen (656876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.714	3.000	-1.714	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.171	6.000	-1.071	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.286	5.000	-0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	10.000	21.000	5.000	27.000	4.000	3.3750	0.9750	0.3750	0.7875	0.1875	1.0125	0.1500
last_10	0.35	7	36.200	12.000	28.000	6.000	37.000	6.000	2.9455	0.9273	0.3273	0.7636	0.1636	1.0091	0.1636
season	0.20	7	36.200	12.000	28.000	6.000	37.000	6.000	2.9455	0.9273	0.3273	0.7636	0.1636	1.0091	0.1636

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3040
predicted_ER	1.9970
predicted_ERA	3.6559
predicted_H	4.1660
predicted_HR	0.7030
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.8620
predicted_WHIP	1.1126

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.3040	2.7222	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.9970	0.9465	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6559	3.6559	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.1660	2.5005	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7030	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.8620	4.9346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1126	1.1126	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	4
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	89

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656876
playerID	656876
playerName	Drew Rasmussen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.2308	0.2308	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	0.9643	0.8571	0.1071	0.5357	0.3214	1.0714	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.200	4.000	10.000	4.000	17.000	1.000	2.2979	0.8936	0.2553	0.6383	0.2553	1.0851	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_ER	0.3870
predicted_ERA	2.8892
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.0775

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4070	0.1586	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3870	0.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8892	2.8892	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8910	0.9575	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0394	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1770	1.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0775	1.0775	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	1.000	-0.119	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_ER	0.3570
predicted_ERA	2.5369
predicted_H	0.9120
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1640
predicted_WHIP	1.0460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4120	0.7542	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3570	0.7312	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5369	2.5369	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9120	1.5452	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1640	0.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0460	1.0460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 16

All-history rows before 20260511: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.156	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.8182	0.6364	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	15	17.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0755	0.2830	0.6793	0.3962	1.1321	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5630
predicted_ER	0.4280
predicted_ERA	3.1453
predicted_H	1.0240
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1770
predicted_WHIP	1.2976

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5630	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4280	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1453	3.1453	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0240	1.0096	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1770	1.6693	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2976	1.2976	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Kevin Kelly (687330) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.100	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	1.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.7297	0.6486	0.0811	0.4865	0.1622	0.7297	0.0811
season	0.20	17	18.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	3.0000	0.7778	0.3333	0.5556	0.2222	0.7778	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.3870
predicted_ERA	2.8001
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0380
predicted_WHIP	1.0704

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3870	0.7525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8001	2.8001	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0010	1.0004	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0380	1.6116	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0704	1.0704	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	687330
playerID	687330
playerName	Kevin Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 7

All-history rows before 20260511: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.743	1.000	-0.543	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.286	3.000	-0.286	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	1.8461
last_10	0.35	7	5.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	4.7647	1.7647	0.5294	1.0588	0.7059	1.5882
season	0.20	7	5.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	4.7647	1.7647	0.5294	1.0588	0.7059	1.5882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_ER	0.3110
predicted_ERA	3.9202
predicted_H	0.6490
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7910
predicted_WHIP	1.3169

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2910	0.0888	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3110	1.4846	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9202	3.9202	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.6490	2.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7910	0.9362	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3169	1.3169	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260510_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: TOR

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 21

All-history rows before 20260511: 21

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.810	5.000	-0.810	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.400	-0.200	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	0.000	1.571	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.762	2.000	-0.762	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.400	0.111	0.000
predicted_R	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.600	-0.338	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.810	0.000	1.190	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.216	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.799	-0.221
predicted_AVG	0.216	0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	-0.081
predicted_H	0.822	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.112	-
predicted_HR	0.046	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.259	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.217	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.664	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, weight=0.150, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3250	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.0556	0.0833	0.0833
season	0.20	21	-	80.000	16.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	17.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.3375	0.2000	0.0250	0.0750	0.1125	0.2125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2163
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.7820
predicted_HBP	0.1120
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.2940
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.2060
predicted_SLG	0.3164
predicted_SO	0.5410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2280	0.2326	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	3.6140	3.7990	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2160	0.2163	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.2800	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.7820	0.8221	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1120	0.1120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0420	0.0456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.2760	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2060	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3164	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.5410	0.6636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 8

All-history rows before 20260511: 8

System season_avg: 0.4170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.417	0.000	-0.017	0.400
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	0.000	0.750	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.440	0.000	-0.040	0.400
predicted_R	0.125	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.058	0.400
predicted_SO	0.375	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	1.000	1.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.125	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.022
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.287	0.287
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.145	0.020
predicted_H	1.064	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.217	0.092
predicted_RBI	0.462	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.511	0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4211	0.4737	0.4210	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	8	-	24.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4400	0.4583	0.4167	0.1667	0.0417	0.1250
season	0.20	8	-	24.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.4167	0.4400	0.4583	0.4167	0.1667	0.0417	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.3241
predicted_BB	0.1730
predicted_H	1.1940
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3610
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.4288
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1780	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.6840	3.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3241	0.3240	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1730	0.1451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1940	1.0640	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3610	0.3610	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1250	0.3450	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5200	0.4620	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4288	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.6990	0.5109	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.417

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2483

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	1.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	1.282	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.048	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.250	-0.131	-0.050
predicted_R	0.513	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.601	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.500	-0.283	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.179	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.601	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	0.091
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.713	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.006
predicted_H	1.087	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.278	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.534	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.796	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.601	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.292 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.6111	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.7632	0.3158	0.1316	0.2895	0.1579	0.2105
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	36.000	4.000	10.000	26.000	20.000	18.000	46.000	0.2483	0.3313	0.4828	0.2483	0.0690	0.1793	0.1241	0.3172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7100
predicted_AVG	0.3000
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.3765
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.8150
predicted_SLG	0.6009
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.2590	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.7100	3.7133	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.4510	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1130	1.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2840	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3765	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.5490	0.5340	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.8150	0.7963	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6010	0.6009	0.6009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	0.8730	1.0002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 29

All-history rows before 20260511: 29

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2523

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	3.000	-0.690	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	1.000	0.793	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.931	0.000	-0.931	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.297	0.250	-0.047	0.000
predicted_R	0.414	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.414	0.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.552	0.000	-0.552	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.425	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.000	-0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.828	3.000	-0.828	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.414	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.425	-
predicted_SO	0.828	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.110	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.798	0.108
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.198	-0.009
predicted_H	0.961	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.171	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.060
predicted_RBI	0.443	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.425	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.971	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2308	0.2619	0.4103	0.2308	0.0513	0.1282	0.0256	0.2564
season	0.20	29	-	107.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	12.000	6.000	24.000	0.2523	0.2966	0.4299	0.2523	0.0467	0.1495	0.0561	0.2243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8820
predicted_AVG	0.2618
predicted_BB	0.1910
predicted_H	1.0160
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.3129
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.4690
predicted_SLG	0.4247
predicted_SO	1.0810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0880	0.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.8820	3.7984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2618	0.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.1910	0.1980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0160	0.9611	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1790	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3129	0.3129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4140	0.5200	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4690	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4250	0.4247	0.4248	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8280	1.0810	0.9708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 35

All-history rows before 20260511: 35

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	3.000	0.314	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.252	0.500
predicted_BB	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.914	0.000	1.086	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.000	0.228	0.500
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	1.486	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.370	0.750
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.114	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.235	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.665	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.088	-0.026
predicted_H	0.637	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.207	-0.000
predicted_R	0.275	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.235	0.000
predicted_SO	0.609	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1389	0.1579	0.1389	0.1389	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.1389
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	10.000	4.000	21.000	0.2481	0.2721	0.3798	0.2481	0.0233	0.1395	0.0310	0.1628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6500
predicted_AVG	0.1861
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.6790
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2066
predicted_R	0.2660
predicted_RBI	0.3730
predicted_SLG	0.2350
predicted_SO	0.6150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0590	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.6500	3.6653	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1861	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1140	0.0680	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6790	0.6368	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2070	0.2066	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2660	0.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3730	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2350	0.2350	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6150	0.6086	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3103

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	0.821	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	-0.718	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.356	0.667
predicted_BB	0.487	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.487	0.000	1.513	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.154	0.000	0.846	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.000	0.402	0.800
predicted_R	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_SO	0.487	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.487	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	0.487	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.070
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.775	0.057
predicted_AVG	0.219	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.452	-0.035
predicted_H	0.824	0.014
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.558	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.356	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.486	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, weight=0.178, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.2308	0.2308	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.1026
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	17.000	23.000	19.000	19.000	0.3103	0.3976	0.4000	0.3103	0.0138	0.1172	0.1310	0.1310

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8160
predicted_AVG	0.2186
predicted_BB	0.4270
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.2992
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.3600
predicted_SLG	0.2569
predicted_SO	0.4850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0590	0.1088	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8160	3.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2186	0.2188	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4870	0.4270	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8340	0.8240	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.5350	0.5578	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3600	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2569	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4870	0.4850	0.4858	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 39

All-history rows before 20260511: 39

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.051	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.051	4.000	-0.051
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.047
predicted_BB	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.128	0.000	-0.128
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.205	1.000	-0.205
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067
predicted_R	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.359	0.000	-0.359
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.250	-0.168
predicted_SO	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.282	0.000	-0.282

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.051	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.128	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.359	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.282	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-0.145
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.008	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.127	-0.001
predicted_H	1.169	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.158	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	0.091
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.304	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.051

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2750	0.3023	0.4250	0.2750	0.0500	0.1250	0.0500	0.0500
season	0.20	39	-	158.000	47.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	14.000	5.000	11.000	0.2975	0.3171	0.4177	0.2975	0.0127	0.0760	0.0316	0.0696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9780
predicted_AVG	0.3026
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_H	1.2040
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1630
predicted_OBP	0.3235
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.5020
predicted_SLG	0.4477
predicted_SO	0.3200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.0850	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0510	3.9780	4.0083	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3026	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1280	0.1260	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2040	1.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1630	0.1576	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3235	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3590	0.5140	0.4496	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5020	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4477	0.4478	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2820	0.3200	0.3042	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 17

All-history rows before 20260511: 17

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	5.000	0.824	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.800	-0.259	-0.800
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	4.000	-0.824	-4.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.800	-0.322	-0.800
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	3.000	-0.529	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.588	4.000	-0.588	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.583	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.600	-0.500	-1.600
predicted_SO	1.059	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.059	0.000	-0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.583	-
predicted_SO	1.059	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.301	0.125
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	0.062
predicted_H	0.908	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.240	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.100
predicted_SLG	0.583	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	-0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.073

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3750	0.4737	0.8125	0.3750	0.1250	0.4375	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.3030	0.3784	0.6061	0.3030	0.0909	0.2424	0.1212	0.2424
season	0.20	17	-	54.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	0.2593	0.3220	0.5000	0.2593	0.0741	0.1852	0.0926	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4220
predicted_AVG	0.2989
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	1.0230
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.3749
predicted_R	0.6500
predicted_RBI	0.8670
predicted_SLG	0.5826
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1510	0.1057	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.4220	3.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2989	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.4160	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0230	0.9083	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2700	0.2405	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3749	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.6500	0.5904	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.8670	0.7700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5830	0.5826	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0590	0.8580	0.9570	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 34

All-history rows before 20260511: 34

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	2.000	-0.941	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.500	-0.324	-0.500
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.500	-0.391	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.735	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.735	2.000	1.265	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	0.735	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.782	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	0.011
predicted_H	1.042	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.356	-0.000
predicted_R	0.629	0.100
predicted_RBI	0.178	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.799

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	7.000	0.2895	0.3721	0.4211	0.2895	0.0263	0.0526	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.20	34	-	128.000	32.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	18.000	12.000	25.000	0.2500	0.3239	0.3906	0.2500	0.0312	0.0703	0.0938	0.1953

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7940
predicted_AVG	0.2849
predicted_BB	0.3720
predicted_H	1.0810
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3559
predicted_R	0.7020
predicted_RBI	0.1840
predicted_SLG	0.3725
predicted_SO	0.9180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1190	0.1431	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.7940	3.7817	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2849	0.2849	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.3720	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0810	1.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0658	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3559	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.7020	0.6287	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1840	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3725	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7350	0.9180	0.8405	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260510_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kevin Gausman (592332) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 8

All-history rows before 20260511: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.688	6.000	-2.487	-2.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.375	3.000	-1.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.100	13.000	29.000	7.000	17.000	4.000	3.9886	1.2273	0.4432	0.9886	0.2386	0.5796	0.1364
last_10	0.35	8	46.200	16.000	37.000	9.000	43.000	5.000	3.0857	0.9857	0.3429	0.7929	0.1929	0.9214	0.1071
season	0.20	8	46.200	16.000	37.000	9.000	43.000	5.000	3.0857	0.9857	0.3429	0.7929	0.1929	0.9214	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4530
predicted_ER	2.2050
predicted_ERA	3.8899
predicted_H	4.7520
predicted_HR	0.6510
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.0400
predicted_WHIP	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4530	1.2208	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2050	2.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8899	3.8899	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.7520	4.8791	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6510	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.0400	4.0195	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2160	1.2160	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	96
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	592332
playerID	592332
playerName	Kevin Gausman
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.879	1.000	0.221	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.5625	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.4000	0.5000	0.7000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	19	20.200	6.000	14.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.9677	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.5620
predicted_ERA	4.2747
predicted_H	0.9480
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0990
predicted_WHIP	1.2325

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5100	0.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5620	0.2349	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2747	4.2747	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9480	0.3963	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0990	1.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2325	1.2325	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 19

All-history rows before 20260511: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.200	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.526	0.000	-1.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.9643	1.1786	0.1071	0.7500	0.4286	1.5000
season	0.20	19	19.200	1.000	14.000	7.000	29.000	0.4576	1.0678	0.0508	0.7119	0.3559	1.4746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5200
predicted_ER	0.3350
predicted_ERA	2.5410
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3660
predicted_WHIP	1.2277

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5200	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3350	0.1383	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5410	2.5410	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9370	0.3868	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0860	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3660	0.5640	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2277	1.2277	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.46
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 20

All-history rows before 20260511: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.450	0.000	1.550	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.950	2.000	-0.950	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.3333	0.6667	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.3500	0.1500
season	0.20	19	13.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	4.6098	1.3171	0.5122	0.8049	0.5122	1.3902	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_ER	0.5200
predicted_ERA	5.2980
predicted_H	0.8710
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9670
predicted_WHIP	1.4319

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3920	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5200	1.4432	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2980	5.2980	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.8710	2.8228	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0354	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9670	0.3638	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4319	1.4319	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	1.6154	0.0000	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	4.0000	1.1111	0.4444	1.0000	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	18	17.200	4.000	15.000	4.000	10.000	2.0377	1.0755	0.2264	0.8491	0.2264	0.5660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_ER	0.4850
predicted_ERA	4.3648
predicted_H	1.0660
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.3251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2590	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4850	0.1949	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3648	4.3648	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0660	1.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0301	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8610	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3251	1.3251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260511: 18

All-history rows before 20260511: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.861	1.000	-0.661	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.667	1.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	14.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	8.0000	2.1111	0.8889	1.5556	0.5556	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	16.200	10.000	22.000	7.000	30.000	2.000	5.4000	1.7400	0.6000	1.3200	0.4200	1.8000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_ER	0.3900
predicted_ERA	4.3903
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8790
predicted_WHIP	1.4429

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2720	0.1077	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3900	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3903	4.3903	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8810	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8790	0.9521	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4429	1.4429	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29