Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260510

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260510_ATL@LAD 20260510_CHC@TEX 20260510_COL@PHI 20260510_DET@KC 20260510_HOU@CIN 20260510_LAA@TOR 20260510_MIN@CLE 20260510_NYM@ARI 20260510_NYY@MIL 20260510_OAK@BAL 20260510_PIT@SF 20260510_SEA@CHW 20260510_STL@SD 20260510_TB@BOS 20260510_WAS@MIA

20260510_ATL@LAD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "ATL 3 - 4 LAD", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ATL

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3025

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.5560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.839	5.000	0.161	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.200	-0.053	0.050
predicted_BB	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.161	1.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.200	-0.078	0.050
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.613	1.000	0.387	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.385	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.400	0.513	0.600
predicted_SO	0.742	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.742	2.000	-0.742	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.839	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.161	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.385	-
predicted_SO	0.742	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.031
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.919	0.080
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	-0.027
predicted_H	1.114	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.389	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.385	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.816	0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.839

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.3333	0.3415	0.3846	0.3333	0.0000	0.1282	0.0256	0.2051
season	0.20	31	-	119.000	36.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	13.000	5.000	23.000	0.3025	0.3280	0.4874	0.3025	0.0504	0.1597	0.0420	0.1933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9800
predicted_AVG	0.2940
predicted_BB	0.1140
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3124
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.3849
predicted_SO	0.8720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1840	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8390	3.9800	3.9191	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2940	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1610	0.1140	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1700	1.1139	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0540	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3124	0.3122	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3660	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4120	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3850	0.3849	0.3849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7420	0.8720	0.8159	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.035	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.128	0.000	0.872	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.400	-0.039	-0.150
predicted_R	0.513	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.513	1.000	0.487	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.250	0.638	0.750
predicted_SO	1.154	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	1.000	0.846	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.513	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.170	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.793	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.070
predicted_H	0.918	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.604	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.431	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.234	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.240 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	17.000	0.2432	0.2750	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.4595
season	0.20	39	-	149.000	32.000	7.000	5.000	24.000	20.000	14.000	45.000	0.2148	0.2892	0.3624	0.2148	0.0336	0.1611	0.0940	0.3020

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7740
predicted_AVG	0.2463
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2918
predicted_R	0.4640
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.4308
predicted_SO	1.2910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1630	0.1696	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7740	3.7935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.2400	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9300	0.9176	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1760	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5130	0.4640	0.4843	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6140	0.6040	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4308	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.2910	1.2342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.3140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3141

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.900	5.000	0.100	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.314	0.400	-0.314	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.225	2.000	-1.225	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.400	-0.364	-0.400
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	2.000	-0.625	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.400	-0.519	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	0.450	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.979	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.001
predicted_H	1.015	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.189	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.740	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.614	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.436	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3333	0.1905	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	5.000	6.000	0.3077	0.3778	0.5385	0.3077	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.1538
season	0.20	40	-	156.000	49.000	8.000	8.000	25.000	30.000	13.000	22.000	0.3141	0.3642	0.5192	0.3141	0.0513	0.1603	0.0833	0.1410

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2546
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.7330
predicted_RBI	0.6170
predicted_SLG	0.4356
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1550	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	4.0000	3.9794	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2546	0.2548	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.3270	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0190	1.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1880	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3073	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.7330	0.7400	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6170	0.6141	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4356	0.4358	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.7780	0.6840	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.314

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2968

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.875	5.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.400	-0.297	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.150	2.000	-1.150	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.400	-0.380	-0.400
predicted_R	0.875	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	2.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.624	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.645	0.400	-0.645	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.025	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.025	2.000	1.975	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.375	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.875	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.875	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.624	-
predicted_SO	1.025	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-0.135
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.793	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.549	-0.001
predicted_H	1.056	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.383	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.372	-0.000
predicted_R	0.784	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.802	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.624	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.031	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.099

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.875

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.7368	0.2895	0.1316	0.2368	0.1579	0.2368
season	0.20	40	-	155.000	46.000	15.000	13.000	35.000	35.000	22.000	41.000	0.2968	0.3799	0.6452	0.2968	0.0839	0.2258	0.1419	0.2645

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7360
predicted_AVG	0.2799
predicted_BB	0.5480
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3780
predicted_OBP	0.3718
predicted_R	0.7200
predicted_RBI	0.7970
predicted_SLG	0.6239
predicted_SO	1.0350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3750	0.1460	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8750	3.7360	3.7931	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2799	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.5480	0.5488	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.0460	1.0559	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.3780	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3718	0.3719	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8750	0.7200	0.7836	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.7970	0.8023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6240	0.6239	0.6239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0250	1.0350	1.0309	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Eli White (642201) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	2.812	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.812	2.000	0.188	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.500	0.111	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	0.875	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.083	-0.167
predicted_R	0.375	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	1.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.500	0.911	0.833
predicted_SO	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	2.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.562	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	0.003
predicted_3B	0.080	0.018
predicted_AB	3.032	0.220
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.160	0.035
predicted_H	0.794	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.428	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.409	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.682	0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3750	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.2759	0.3000	0.5517	0.2759	0.0690	0.1724	0.0345	0.2069
season	0.20	16	-	45.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.4222	0.2222	0.0444	0.1556	0.0444	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.2630
predicted_AVG	0.2734
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_OBP	0.3173
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.4610
predicted_SLG	0.4527
predicted_SO	0.8090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0680	0.0649	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0980	0.0796	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8120	3.2630	3.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2734	0.2732	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1970	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8920	0.7936	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1070	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3173	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.4830	0.4277	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4610	0.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4527	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5620	0.8090	0.6824	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642201
playerID	642201
playerName	Eli White
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2981

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.025	3.000	-1.025	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.298	0.333	-0.298	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.600	-0.136	-0.350
predicted_R	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.775	1.000	-0.775	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.497	0.333	-0.497	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	1.000	-0.950	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.850	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.904	-0.206
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.638	0.138
predicted_H	0.924	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.201	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.653	-0.197
predicted_RBI	0.551	-0.029
predicted_SLG	0.413	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.047	0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3478	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.2778	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	12.000	0.2895	0.4130	0.4737	0.2895	0.0526	0.1579	0.1842	0.3158
season	0.20	40	-	161.000	48.000	5.000	9.000	31.000	34.000	20.000	38.000	0.2981	0.3859	0.4969	0.2981	0.0559	0.1925	0.1242	0.2360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7610
predicted_AVG	0.2373
predicted_BB	0.7330
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3682
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.4126
predicted_SO	1.1140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0750	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	3.7610	3.9038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2373	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.7330	0.6376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.8920	0.9239	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.1940	0.2005	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3682	0.3681	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8500	0.5160	0.6527	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5310	0.5511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4126	0.4128	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	1.1140	1.0469	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.298

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Sean Murphy (669221) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 3

All-history rows before 20260510: 3

System season_avg: 0.0910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	-0.667	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.315	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	3.000	-2.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.315	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	0.045
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.700	0.033
predicted_AVG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.071	0.071
predicted_H	0.690	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.122	0.122
predicted_RBI	0.309	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.717	-0.283

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	3	-	11.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454
last_10	0.35	3	-	11.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454
season	0.20	3	-	11.000	1.000	6.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.5454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1310
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.7650
predicted_AVG	0.2038
predicted_BB	0.2070
predicted_H	0.7670
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.2490
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.3148
predicted_SO	1.1700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1310	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.7650	3.7004	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2038	0.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2070	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7670	0.6899	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0890	0.0831	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2490	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3590	0.1224	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3450	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3150	0.3148	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1700	1.7171	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.091

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669221
playerID	669221
playerName	Sean Murphy
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ATL
teamID	2

Jorge Mateo (622761) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.500	0.042	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	0.067	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.500	0.013	-0.167
predicted_R	0.733	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.733	2.000	-0.733	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.667	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.500	0.271	0.167
predicted_SO	1.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.733	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	1.067	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	0.014
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.415	0.215
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.139	0.006
predicted_H	0.903	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.115	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.713	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.000
predicted_SO	1.038	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.5789	0.3684	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	12.000	0.2353	0.2571	0.3529	0.2353	0.0294	0.0588	0.0294	0.3529
season	0.20	15	-	48.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	16.000	0.2917	0.3200	0.3958	0.2917	0.0208	0.0625	0.0417	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2835
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_H	1.0310
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.3149
predicted_R	0.6920
predicted_RBI	0.3540
predicted_SLG	0.4383
predicted_SO	1.0080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1610	0.1468	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.6380	3.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2835	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1450	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	1.0310	0.9034	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1310	0.1152	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3149	0.3150	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7330	0.6920	0.7128	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3540	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4383	0.4381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0670	1.0080	1.0380	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	622761
playerID	622761
playerName	Jorge Mateo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.658	4.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	-0.273	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.289	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.289	1.000	0.711	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.600	-0.086	-0.350
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	-0.474	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.500	-0.410	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.289	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.007
predicted_AB	3.790	-0.100
predicted_AVG	0.278	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.349	0.060
predicted_H	1.053	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.087
predicted_RBI	0.505	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.770	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3684	0.3158	0.0000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.1667	0.1389	0.1944
season	0.20	38	-	139.000	38.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	20.000	18.000	11.000	26.000	0.2734	0.3355	0.4101	0.2734	0.0144	0.1439	0.0791	0.1870

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.7180
predicted_AVG	0.2779
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3542
predicted_R	0.3240
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.3698
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2370	0.1730	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0410	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	3.7180	3.7902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2779	0.2779	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2890	0.3930	0.3494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0330	1.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3542	0.3541	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.3240	0.3869	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.4940	0.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.8330	0.7705	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Bryce Elder (693821) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.375	2.000	0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.950	6.000	-1.850	-1.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.625	9.000	-2.625	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.100	9.000	21.000	11.000	29.000	2.000	2.5851	1.0213	0.2872	0.6702	0.3511	0.9255	0.0638
last_10	0.35	8	49.000	11.000	34.000	16.000	45.000	3.000	2.0204	1.0204	0.2245	0.6939	0.3265	0.9184	0.0612
season	0.20	8	49.000	11.000	34.000	16.000	45.000	3.000	2.0204	1.0204	0.2245	0.6939	0.3265	0.9184	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9740
predicted_ER	1.8910
predicted_ERA	3.0957
predicted_H	4.2840
predicted_HR	0.4850
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.1530
predicted_WHIP	1.1380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.9740	1.9873	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.8910	1.9469	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0957	3.0957	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.2840	4.1385	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.4850	1.2614	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.1530	4.0496	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1380	1.1380	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	2
BF	21
Pitches	82

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.02
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	693821
playerID	693821
playerName	Bryce Elder
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dylan Lee (669276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.921	1.000	0.179	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.211	0.000	1.789	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	10.000	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	1.7647
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	1.000	2.000	1.000	15.000	0.8438	0.2812	0.0938	0.1875	0.0938	1.4062
season	0.20	19	18.200	2.000	7.000	2.000	23.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.3750	0.1071	1.2321

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2900
predicted_ER	0.3470
predicted_ERA	2.6192
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4340
predicted_WHIP	0.8776

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2900	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3470	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6192	2.6192	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7550	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0359	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.4340	2.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8776	0.8776	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669276
playerID	669276
playerName	Dylan Lee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Robert Suarez (663158) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	1.938	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.150	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.8276	0.1035	0.9310
season	0.20	16	15.200	1.000	12.000	2.000	16.000	0.5745	0.8936	0.0638	0.7660	0.1277	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3550
predicted_ER	0.3690
predicted_ERA	2.7573
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1660
predicted_WHIP	1.1829

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3550	1.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3690	1.3645	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7573	2.7573	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0700	1.6376	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0960	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1660	1.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1829	1.1829	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663158
playerID	663158
playerName	Robert Suarez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Raisel Iglesias (628452) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.022	1.000	-0.022	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.444	2.000	-1.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	5.000	1.000	11.000	1.0588	0.8823	0.1765	1.9412
last_10	0.35	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448
season	0.20	9	9.200	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.7241	0.6207	0.1035	1.3448

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	3.0342
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1680
predicted_WHIP	1.2156

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3190	0.7652	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3370	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0342	3.0342	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8970	0.3093	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0930	0.0321	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1680	0.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2156	1.2156	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	628452
playerID	628452
playerName	Raisel Iglesias
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: LAD

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.806	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.513	4.000	0.487	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	1.000	-0.872	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.250	-0.382	-0.250
predicted_R	0.694	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.250	-0.431	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.111	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	2.000	-1.026	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.806	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.741	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.731	-0.019
predicted_H	0.906	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.077	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.000
predicted_R	0.720	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.528	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	-0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.806

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	8.000	9.000	0.2703	0.4130	0.4324	0.2703	0.0270	0.1351	0.2162	0.2432
season	0.20	36	-	137.000	34.000	7.000	6.000	16.000	25.000	27.000	40.000	0.2482	0.3824	0.4307	0.2482	0.0438	0.1168	0.1971	0.2920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6950
predicted_AVG	0.2444
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_H	0.9030
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3836
predicted_R	0.7390
predicted_RBI	0.5270
predicted_SLG	0.3676
predicted_SO	0.8890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2260	0.2128	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8060	3.6950	3.7409	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2444	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7170	0.7306	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9030	0.9059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0750	0.0771	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3836	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	0.7390	0.7204	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5270	0.5282	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3676	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.8890	0.9808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3357

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	4.000	0.237	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.360	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.500	-0.086	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.263	2.000	-0.263	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	1.000	-0.237	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.500	-0.124	-0.250
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.060	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.921	2.000	1.079	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.737	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.580	1.250	-0.330	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.842	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.360	-
predicted_BB	0.237	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.440	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	1.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.737	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.918	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.360	0.000
predicted_BB	0.169	-0.068
predicted_H	1.412	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.456	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.693	0.088
predicted_RBI	1.091	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.737	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.360 HR/AB=0.116

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	1.0000	0.4286	0.1905	0.3810	0.0000	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	1.000	8.000	0.3500	0.3659	0.6750	0.3500	0.1000	0.2500	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	48.000	8.000	9.000	35.000	23.000	9.000	32.000	0.3357	0.3742	0.5804	0.3357	0.0629	0.2448	0.0629	0.2238

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0030
predicted_AVG	0.3602
predicted_BB	0.1200
predicted_H	1.4420
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.4680
predicted_OBP	0.3814
predicted_R	0.7570
predicted_RBI	1.1140
predicted_SLG	0.7366
predicted_SO	0.6750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.0980	0.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	4.0030	3.9180	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3600	0.3602	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2370	0.1200	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.4420	1.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4400	0.4680	0.4563	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3814	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.7570	0.6934	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0600	1.1140	1.0914	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7370	0.7366	0.7368	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.6750	0.7449	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2517

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	2.000	0.135	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.000	-0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.703	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.703	0.000	-0.703	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.000	-0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.919	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.919	1.000	-0.919	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.243	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.523	-
predicted_SO	0.919	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	0.060
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.676	-0.189
predicted_AVG	0.302	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	-0.047
predicted_H	1.102	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.151	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.644	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.640	-0.030
predicted_SLG	0.523	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.6471	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2941	0.3750	0.5000	0.2941	0.0294	0.1471	0.1471	0.2059
season	0.20	37	-	143.000	36.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	26.000	19.000	34.000	0.2517	0.3354	0.3986	0.2517	0.0280	0.1329	0.1329	0.2378

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3450
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5410
predicted_AVG	0.3017
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3753
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.5229
predicted_SO	0.8770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2430	0.3450	0.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.5410	3.6756	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3017	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.4330	0.4666	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.0680	1.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1440	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3753	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	0.6030	0.6445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6190	0.6402	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5230	0.5229	0.5229	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9190	0.8770	0.8944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2764

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	2.000	0.583	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.000	-0.026	0.250
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	0.000	0.056	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.000	-0.128	0.250
predicted_R	0.694	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.694	0.000	0.306	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.537	0.000	0.463	1.000
predicted_SO	0.972	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.972	0.000	1.028	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.972	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.253	-0.164
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.556	0.000
predicted_H	0.549	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.057	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.496	-0.198
predicted_RBI	0.186	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.000
predicted_SO	0.977	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0714	0.2353	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2000	0.2333
season	0.20	36	-	123.000	34.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	25.000	20.000	35.000	0.2764	0.3776	0.5366	0.2764	0.0732	0.1057	0.1626	0.2846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1070
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1330
predicted_AVG	0.1726
predicted_BB	0.5560
predicted_H	0.5410
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2996
predicted_R	0.3500
predicted_RBI	0.1830
predicted_SLG	0.2612
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1070	0.1205	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.1330	3.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1726	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.5560	0.5560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.5410	0.5490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0550	0.0571	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2996	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	0.3500	0.4956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1830	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2612	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9720	0.9810	0.9772	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	-1.973	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.228	0.500
predicted_BB	0.351	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	1.649	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	0.000	-0.081	1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.000	0.415	0.750
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.435	0.000	0.065	0.500
predicted_SO	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	0.027
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.919	-0.151
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.019
predicted_H	1.061	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.382	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.643	-0.027
predicted_SLG	0.472	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.671	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.4250	0.2750	0.0250	0.1250	0.0500	0.1750
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	40.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	13.000	21.000	0.2721	0.3354	0.4354	0.2721	0.0272	0.1361	0.0884	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3170
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.2709
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_OBP	0.3288
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.6240
predicted_SLG	0.4719
predicted_SO	0.7450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.3170	0.2974	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	3.8120	3.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2709	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3190	0.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0330	1.0609	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1450	0.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3288	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3840	0.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6240	0.6432	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4719	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.7450	0.6713	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

System season_avg: 0.3390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3393

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.339	0.400	-0.339	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	2.000	-1.188	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.403	0.400	-0.403	-0.400
predicted_R	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.750	0.400	-0.750	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.938	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.812	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.399	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.566	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.001
predicted_H	0.862	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.146	-
predicted_HR	0.139	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.658	-0.154
predicted_RBI	0.486	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.399	0.000
predicted_SO	0.899	-0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2571	0.3500	0.4286	0.2571	0.0571	0.2000	0.0857	0.2571
season	0.20	16	-	56.000	19.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	13.000	3.000	15.000	0.3393	0.4032	0.7500	0.3393	0.1250	0.2857	0.0536	0.2679

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2537
predicted_BB	0.1890
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.1460
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3168
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.5200
predicted_SLG	0.3990
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0740	0.0989	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6280	3.5656	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2537	0.2538	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1890	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9210	0.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1460	0.1460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1480	0.1392	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3168	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8120	0.5120	0.6583	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5200	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3990	0.3990	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	0.8620	0.8991	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.339

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Freeland (690976) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.067	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.067	3.000	-1.067	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	1.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_BB	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	0.000	1.233	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	1.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	0.673	1.000
predicted_R	0.367	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	0.641	1.000
predicted_SO	0.967	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.967	2.000	-0.967	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.967	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.135	0.068
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	0.088
predicted_H	0.787	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	0.867	-0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3824	0.4667	0.3000	0.0333	0.1000	0.1333	0.2000
season	0.20	30	-	92.000	23.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	11.000	11.000	29.000	0.2500	0.3269	0.3587	0.2500	0.0217	0.0870	0.1196	0.3152

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1130
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.2683
predicted_BB	0.5260
predicted_H	0.8560
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3704
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.3680
predicted_SLG	0.4343
predicted_SO	0.7870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1130	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0670	3.1900	3.1353	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.5260	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8560	0.7866	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3704	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.4910	0.4359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3680	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4343	0.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9670	0.7870	0.8670	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	690976
playerID	690976
playerName	Alex Freeland
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Call (669743) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	3.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.333	0.026	0.000
predicted_BB	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.438	0.500	0.062	0.000
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.333	0.949	1.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.713	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.727	-0.130
predicted_H	0.863	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.000
predicted_R	0.612	-0.102
predicted_RBI	0.418	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.672	0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	7	-	26.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.3077	0.4375	0.3846	0.3077	0.1154	0.2308	0.1538
season	0.20	7	-	26.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.3077	0.4375	0.3846	0.3077	0.1154	0.2308	0.1538

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7110
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.5650
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3452
predicted_R	0.4840
predicted_RBI	0.4400
predicted_SLG	0.3266
predicted_SO	0.7980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1200	0.2120	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.7110	3.7127	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2438	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	0.5650	0.7269	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9050	0.8634	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3452	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.4840	0.6115	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4400	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3266	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.7980	0.6721	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260429_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	669743
playerID	669743
playerName	Alex Call
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Hyeseong Kim (808975) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 23

All-history rows before 20260510: 23

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043
predicted_AB	3.043	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.043	3.000	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.000	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.348	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.348	1.000	0.652
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.913	0.000	-0.913
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.250	-0.117
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	-0.435
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.348	0.000	-0.348
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.000	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.652	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.652	1.000	0.348

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.043	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.348	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.652	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.075	0.032
predicted_AB	3.265	0.222
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.054
predicted_H	0.823	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.469	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.265	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1471
season	0.20	23	-	70.000	21.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	15.000	0.3000	0.3671	0.4000	0.3000	0.0143	0.1143	0.1143	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.1030
predicted_AB	3.4590
predicted_AVG	0.2666
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.9220
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.3169
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.2950
predicted_SLG	0.3761
predicted_SO	0.5830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.0590	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.1030	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0430	3.4590	3.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2666	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3480	0.2470	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9220	0.8232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3169	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.4980	0.4686	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2950	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3761	0.3761	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6520	0.5830	0.6152	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	808975
playerID	808975
playerName	Hyeseong Kim
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Justin Wrobleski (680736) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	2.167	3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.000	6.000	-1.800	-1.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.500	0.000	2.500	5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	2.000	22.000	9.000	13.000	0.5625	0.9688	0.0625	0.6875	0.2812	0.4062
last_10	0.35	6	36.000	5.000	26.000	10.000	15.000	1.2500	1.0000	0.1389	0.7222	0.2778	0.4167
season	0.20	6	36.000	5.000	26.000	10.000	15.000	1.2500	1.0000	0.1389	0.7222	0.2778	0.4167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8190
predicted_ER	1.3980
predicted_ERA	2.2663
predicted_H	4.4710
predicted_HR	0.3250
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	3.6550
predicted_WHIP	1.1330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8190	0.8331	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.3980	2.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2663	2.2663	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.4710	4.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	3.0000	0.3250	1.7749	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.6550	4.3840	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1330	1.1330	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	5
HR	3
BF	19
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.25
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	680736
playerID	680736
playerName	Justin Wrobleski
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.686	1.000	0.514	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.3846	0.0000	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	2.2500	1.1250	0.2500	0.8750	0.2500	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	13	11.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	1.6364	1.0909	0.1818	0.8182	0.2727	1.0909	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_ER	0.6080
predicted_ERA	3.8302
predicted_H	1.4100
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5090
predicted_WHIP	1.2977

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4430	1.4457	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6080	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8302	3.8302	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4100	0.5020	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.0712	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5090	1.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2977	1.2977	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	0.244	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	16.000	2.000	1.6531	0.6122	0.1837	0.4898	0.1225	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3680
predicted_ER	0.3920
predicted_ERA	2.9333
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2270
predicted_WHIP	1.0080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3680	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3920	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9333	2.9333	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8430	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0484	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2270	1.0894	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0080	1.0080	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.318	1.000	-0.318
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	1.000	-0.455

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	7.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	1.0000	0.4286	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	15.000	3.0682	1.5000	0.3409	1.0909	0.4091	1.0227
season	0.20	11	15.200	5.000	16.000	6.000	16.000	2.8723	1.4043	0.3191	1.0213	0.3830	1.0213

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_ER	0.4590
predicted_ERA	3.6649
predicted_H	1.1030
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1050
predicted_WHIP	1.3726

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4450	0.1734	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4590	0.1789	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6649	3.6649	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1030	0.4298	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0890	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1050	1.0409	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3726	1.3726	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.87
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.725	0.100	-0.625	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.0000	0.5455	0.0000	0.0000	0.5454	1.3636
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	2.5714	0.7143	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	1.5714
season	0.20	16	13.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	16.000	1.3846	0.7692	0.1538	0.3077	0.4615	1.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1870
predicted_ER	0.1570
predicted_ERA	3.1701
predicted_H	0.3020
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4970
predicted_WHIP	1.0949

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1870	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1570	0.0583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1701	3.1701	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3020	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0380	0.0141	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4970	0.8132	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0949	1.0949	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.38
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_ATL@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

20260510_CHC@TEX

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 TEX", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 TEX", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 6 - 5 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "CHC 7 - 5 TEX", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: CHC

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.3110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3111

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.780	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.311	0.333	-0.061	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.500	-0.022	-0.100
predicted_R	0.792	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.792	0.000	0.208	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.578	0.333	-0.328	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.958	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.958	1.000	-0.958	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.780	-
predicted_AVG	0.289	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.593	-
predicted_SO	0.958	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.677	-0.103
predicted_AVG	0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.756	0.089
predicted_H	1.063	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.309	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000
predicted_R	0.762	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.885	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.593	0.000
predicted_SO	0.807	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.082

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	0.2941	0.4783	0.7059	0.2941	0.1177	0.3529	0.3529	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.3056	0.4222	0.6111	0.3056	0.0833	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222
season	0.20	24	-	90.000	28.000	3.000	7.000	16.000	19.000	16.000	23.000	0.3111	0.4220	0.5778	0.3111	0.0778	0.1778	0.1778	0.2556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2894
predicted_BB	0.8260
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.3000
predicted_OBP	0.4171
predicted_R	0.7380
predicted_RBI	0.8650
predicted_SLG	0.5931
predicted_SO	0.6870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1850	0.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7800	3.5960	3.6772	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2890	0.2894	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.8260	0.7559	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0410	1.0626	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3000	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4171	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.7380	0.7618	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	0.8650	0.8849	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5930	0.5931	0.5931	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9580	0.6870	0.8066	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.311

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Moisés Ballesteros (694208) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 27

All-history rows before 20260510: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2620

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.190	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	4.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.815	0.000	-0.815	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.200	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.126	0.200
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.630	1.000	-0.630	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.063	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.416	0.226
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	0.031
predicted_H	0.566	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.203	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	-0.024
predicted_RBI	0.599	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.166 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.1667	0.1111	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1081	0.2093	0.3514	0.1081	0.0811	0.2162	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.20	27	-	84.000	22.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	13.000	9.000	15.000	0.2619	0.3263	0.5000	0.2619	0.0714	0.2024	0.1071	0.1786

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6010
predicted_AVG	0.1654
predicted_BB	0.3900
predicted_H	0.5960
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2130
predicted_OBP	0.2441
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.6310
predicted_SLG	0.3597
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.0540	0.0630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1900	3.6010	3.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1654	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3900	0.3643	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.5960	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2130	0.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2441	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.4380	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6310	0.5990	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3597	0.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.6950	0.6323	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694208
playerID	694208
playerName	Moisés Ballesteros
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2378

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	3.000	1.237	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.000	-0.038	0.200
predicted_BB	0.763	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.763	1.000	-0.763	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.250	-0.174	-0.050
predicted_R	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.816	0.000	0.184	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.000	-0.283	0.200
predicted_SO	1.342	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.342	2.000	-1.342	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.763	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.816	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	1.342	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.034	0.008
predicted_AB	3.711	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.796	0.033
predicted_H	0.869	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.198	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.884	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.499	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.449	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.370	0.028

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	14.000	0.2647	0.4444	0.5588	0.2647	0.0588	0.1177	0.3235	0.4118
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	31.000	29.000	51.000	0.2378	0.3736	0.4825	0.2378	0.0629	0.1259	0.2028	0.3566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0390
predicted_AB	3.6740
predicted_AVG	0.2364
predicted_BB	0.8200
predicted_H	0.8690
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1960
predicted_OBP	0.3750
predicted_R	0.9320
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.4489
predicted_SO	1.3900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1160	0.1333	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0390	0.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.6740	3.7107	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2364	0.2362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7630	0.8200	0.7965	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8690	0.8694	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1960	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8160	0.9320	0.8842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.4980	0.4988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4489	0.4489	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3420	1.3900	1.3702	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.763	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.763	3.000	1.237	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.333	-0.031	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	1.000	-0.632	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	0.132	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.467	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.500	-0.145	-0.300
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.553	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.333	-0.164	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.763	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.467	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.553	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.029
predicted_3B	0.033	0.007
predicted_AB	3.622	-0.141
predicted_AVG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.803	0.171
predicted_H	1.204	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.467	-0.000
predicted_R	0.414	-0.033
predicted_RBI	1.015	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.553	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	0.4118	0.5652	0.6471	0.4118	0.0588	0.3529	0.3529	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	0.3529	0.4889	0.6176	0.3529	0.0294	0.3529	0.2941	0.2059
season	0.20	38	-	143.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	22.000	17.000	24.000	37.000	0.2308	0.3450	0.3636	0.2308	0.0210	0.1538	0.1678	0.2587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2610
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.5220
predicted_AVG	0.3386
predicted_BB	0.9240
predicted_H	1.1920
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4665
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	1.0040
predicted_SLG	0.5527
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2610	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0370	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7630	3.5220	3.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3386	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.9240	0.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.1920	1.2036	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1400	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4670	0.4665	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.3910	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.0040	1.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5530	0.5527	0.5528	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.8060	0.8754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2675

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.410	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.132	4.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	-0.068	0.200
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	0.000	-0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.144	0.200
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.737	0.000	1.263	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.252	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.408	0.000	-0.008	0.400
predicted_SO	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.410	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.252	-
predicted_SO	0.395	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.248	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.263	-0.147
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	0.025
predicted_H	0.708	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.052	-
predicted_HR	0.038	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.257	-0.000
predicted_R	0.443	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.434	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.360	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.161 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.410

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.0952	0.2083	0.1429	0.0952	0.0000	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.1628	0.2449	0.2326	0.1628	0.0000	0.1163	0.0930	0.0465
season	0.20	38	-	157.000	42.000	10.000	4.000	28.000	19.000	16.000	15.000	0.2675	0.3444	0.4076	0.2675	0.0255	0.1783	0.1019	0.0955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1610
predicted_AVG	0.1665
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HBP	0.0520
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2567
predicted_R	0.4040
predicted_RBI	0.4230
predicted_SLG	0.2515
predicted_SO	0.3360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2370	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4100	4.1610	4.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1665	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4630	0.4458	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.6930	0.7082	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0520	0.0520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0370	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2567	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4040	0.4434	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4230	0.4341	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3950	0.3360	0.3602	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Carson Kelly (608348) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2796

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.720	2.000	0.280	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	-0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.480	1.000	-0.480	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.040	0.000	-0.040	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.333	-0.118	-0.083
predicted_R	0.520	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.520	0.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.000	-0.105	0.250
predicted_SO	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	0.000	0.280	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.480	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.679	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.000
predicted_BB	0.415	-0.065
predicted_H	0.820	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.448	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.374	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.2895	0.2632	0.0000	0.0790	0.0790	0.1579
season	0.20	25	-	93.000	26.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	13.000	12.000	18.000	0.2796	0.3679	0.3548	0.2796	0.0107	0.0968	0.1290	0.1935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.2314
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.3083
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.2837
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0890	0.1205	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.6470	3.6794	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4800	0.3630	0.4149	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8440	0.8201	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3083	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.3900	0.4476	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3850	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2837	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.6740	0.6944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608348
playerID	608348
playerName	Carson Kelly
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Matt Shaw (807713) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 20

All-history rows before 20260510: 20

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.150	2.000	-0.150	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	0.048	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.167	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	2.550	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.500	0.825	0.833
predicted_SO	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.650	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.254	0.004
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.242	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	0.005
predicted_H	0.829	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.311	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.680	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.24), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2941	0.5000	0.2500	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3939	0.5667	0.3333	0.0333	0.1000	0.1000	0.2333
season	0.20	20	-	63.000	18.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2857	0.3333	0.5079	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0794	0.2064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2580
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3260
predicted_AVG	0.2739
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3278
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.3390
predicted_SLG	0.4861
predicted_SO	0.7070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2580	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1500	3.3260	3.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2739	0.2739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2590	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9110	0.8293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1470	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4560	0.4292	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3390	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4861	0.4861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6500	0.7070	0.6798	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	807713
playerID	807713
playerName	Matt Shaw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.421	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.467	0.333
predicted_BB	0.579	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.579	0.000	-0.579	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.684	1.000	1.316	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.333	0.436	0.417
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	0.395	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	0.667	1.297	1.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.842	1.000	-0.842	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.421	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.579	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	0.051
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.571	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.218	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.155
predicted_H	0.738	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.558	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.293	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.673	-0.169

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.207 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=34.0, weight=0.213, BvP AVG=0.206)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2821	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.0833	0.1111
season	0.20	38	-	130.000	26.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	26.000	22.000	32.000	0.2000	0.3141	0.3692	0.2000	0.0461	0.1769	0.1692	0.2462

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6780
predicted_AVG	0.2178
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2794
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.2987
predicted_SO	0.5510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0530	0.1410	0.1042	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4210	3.6780	3.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2178	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5790	0.3120	0.4236	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8010	0.7379	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2794	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.4670	0.5577	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3170	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2987	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	0.5510	0.6727	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2534

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.744	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.744	3.000	-1.744	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.253	0.000	-0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.177	0.250
predicted_R	0.615	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.436	0.000	-0.436	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.397	0.000
predicted_SO	1.026	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.026	0.000	-1.026	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.744	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.516	-
predicted_SO	1.026	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	0.034
predicted_3B	0.045	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.648	-0.096
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	0.019
predicted_H	1.041	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.168	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.599	-0.016
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	-0.250

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.278 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.1944	0.0833	0.1389
season	0.20	39	-	146.000	37.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	12.000	40.000	0.2534	0.3230	0.3973	0.2534	0.0274	0.1164	0.0822	0.2740

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1860
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.5800
predicted_AVG	0.2971
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.3766
predicted_R	0.5880
predicted_RBI	0.6660
predicted_SLG	0.5163
predicted_SO	0.5980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.1860	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0400	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7440	3.5800	3.6483	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2971	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.3400	0.3267	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0630	1.0409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1730	0.1676	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3766	0.3768	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.5880	0.5992	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6660	0.6510	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5160	0.5163	0.5162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0260	0.5980	0.7762	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.253

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jameson Taillon (592791) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	2.000	1.286	2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.629	5.200	-2.429	-2.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	5.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.200	16.000	23.000	10.000	29.000	9.000	4.8539	1.1124	0.5393	0.7753	0.3371	0.9775	0.3034
last_10	0.35	7	40.100	19.000	32.000	14.000	36.000	11.000	4.2397	1.1405	0.4711	0.7934	0.3471	0.8926	0.2727
season	0.20	7	40.100	19.000	32.000	14.000	36.000	11.000	4.2397	1.1405	0.4711	0.7934	0.3471	0.8926	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7830
predicted_ER	2.4890
predicted_ERA	4.4965
predicted_H	4.2190
predicted_HR	1.1280
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.7730
predicted_WHIP	1.2049

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7830	1.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.4890	3.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4965	4.4965	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.2190	4.1038	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.1280	1.5867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.7730	4.3664	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2049	1.2049	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	4
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	4
HR	2
BF	17
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.24
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	100
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	592791
playerID	592791
playerName	Jameson Taillon
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Daniel Palencia (694037) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.100	0.229	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.9231
last_10	0.35	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474
season	0.20	7	6.100	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.9474	0.6316	0.3158	0.9474

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4970
predicted_ER	0.4720
predicted_ERA	3.3555
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2070
predicted_WHIP	1.2100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4970	0.8428	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4720	0.1475	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3555	3.3555	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0350	0.3234	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1300	0.0406	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2070	0.3771	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2100	1.2100	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694037
playerID	694037
playerName	Daniel Palencia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	1.000	0.276	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	1.000	0.941	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	2.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.7000	0.7500	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	1.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	12.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	3.6000	1.5000	0.4000	1.2000	0.3000	1.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	17	16.100	7.000	18.000	8.000	18.000	3.000	3.8571	1.5918	0.4286	1.1020	0.4898	1.1020	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_ER	0.5360
predicted_ERA	3.8247
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2690
predicted_WHIP	1.2683

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4610	0.1816	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5360	0.2111	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8247	3.8247	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1380	0.4482	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1680	0.0662	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2690	1.7121	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2683	1.2683	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.192	4.000	-1.192	-3.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.077	3.000	-1.077	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.200	1.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.8438	0.5625	0.0938	0.2812	0.2812	0.6562	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.000	2.000	12.000	5.000	19.000	0.000	0.8571	0.8095	0.0952	0.5714	0.2381	0.9048	0.0000
season	0.20	13	29.200	6.000	18.000	9.000	27.000	1.000	1.8202	0.9101	0.2023	0.6067	0.3034	0.9101	0.0337

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_ER	0.4370
predicted_ERA	2.4922
predicted_H	1.0630
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3720
predicted_WHIP	0.9969

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5090	0.7760	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4370	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4922	2.4922	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0630	1.0287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3720	1.1697	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9969	0.9969	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.82
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	46
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	31
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ethan Roberts (681799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 5

All-history rows before 20260510: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	2.000	0.100	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529
last_10	0.35	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529
season	0.20	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_ER	0.3810
predicted_ERA	3.4282
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8480
predicted_WHIP	1.2113

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4110	0.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3810	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4282	3.4282	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8010	0.2444	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8480	0.9536	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2113	1.2113	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	681799
playerID	681799
playerName	Ethan Roberts
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.670	1.000	-0.470	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.100	1.000	0.900	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.9231	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200
season	0.20	10	8.100	8.000	10.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	8.6400	1.8000	0.9600	1.2000	0.6000	1.3200	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	4.6770
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7550
predicted_WHIP	1.3528

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2750	0.7589	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3710	0.7908	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6770	4.6770	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6900	1.5643	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0259	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7550	1.5859	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3528	1.3528	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	8.64
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Home Team: TEX

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.444	4.000	1.556	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.500	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.556	2.000	1.444	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.414	0.500	0.086	0.000
predicted_R	0.227	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.500	0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.227	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.348	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	0.026
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.876	0.376
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.468	-0.100
predicted_H	0.661	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.348	0.000
predicted_SO	0.662	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3125	0.2500	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	9	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.2273	0.4138	0.2727	0.2273	0.1364	0.2273	0.2273
season	0.20	9	-	22.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.2273	0.4138	0.2727	0.2273	0.1364	0.2273	0.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3630
predicted_AVG	0.2433
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.3351
predicted_R	0.2800
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.3479
predicted_SO	0.7830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1740	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.3630	2.8755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2433	0.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.3370	0.4675	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.8180	0.6610	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0550	0.0465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3351	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2270	0.2800	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4920	0.4005	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3480	0.3479	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.7830	0.6616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2051

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.786	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.786	3.000	1.214	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.667	0.295	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	2.000	1.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	2.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	1.964	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.199	-0.250
predicted_R	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	1.000	0.714	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	4.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	1.000	3.786	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.269	1.000	1.731	1.000
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.043
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.955	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.217	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	-0.077
predicted_H	0.616	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.281	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.426	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	-0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	4.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2143	0.2353	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2353	0.2333	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.0667	0.2333
season	0.20	28	-	78.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	8.000	11.000	24.000	0.2051	0.3011	0.2692	0.2051	0.0128	0.0769	0.1410	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0950
predicted_AVG	0.2167
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.6710
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2627
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.4650
predicted_SLG	0.2965
predicted_SO	0.7300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1500	0.1142	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7860	3.0950	2.9550	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2167	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.2530	0.3164	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6710	0.6162	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0255	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2627	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.2760	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4650	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2965	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7300	0.7875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Justin Foscue (679822) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	1.333	1.333	-1.083	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.194	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.736	0.076
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.169	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.881	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	0.203	0.203

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3333	1.3333	0.3333	0.3333	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2532
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.9440
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.2220
predicted_OBP	0.3093
predicted_R	0.5540
predicted_RBI	0.5380
predicted_SLG	0.4820
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2532	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.9440	0.7355	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.2220	0.1691	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3093	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	0.5540	0.8814	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.5380	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4820	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7620	0.2026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	679822
playerID	679822
playerName	Justin Foscue
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1972

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	4.000	0.263	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	-0.197	0.000
predicted_BB	0.553	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.553	0.000	0.447	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	-0.737	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.101	0.200
predicted_R	0.553	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.553	0.000	-0.553	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	-0.387	0.000
predicted_SO	1.211	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.211	3.000	-1.211	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.553	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.553	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	1.211	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.822	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.156	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.565	0.012
predicted_H	0.597	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.153	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.453	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.365	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	1.357	0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1500	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	0.1579	0.2889	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.1842	0.3947
season	0.20	38	-	142.000	28.000	6.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	21.000	46.000	0.1972	0.3012	0.3873	0.1972	0.0493	0.1338	0.1479	0.3239

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8660
predicted_AVG	0.1559
predicted_BB	0.5730
predicted_H	0.6020
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_OBP	0.2665
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.3690
predicted_SLG	0.3074
predicted_SO	1.4600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1160	0.1334	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.8660	3.8220	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1559	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5530	0.5730	0.5647	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6020	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1550	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2665	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5530	0.3820	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3690	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2110	1.4600	1.3567	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Brandon Nimmo (607043) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2847

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	4.130	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.892	3.000	0.108	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.000	-0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	1.000	0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	0.000	-1.108	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.250	-0.170	-0.050
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.000	-0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.865	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.865	1.000	0.135	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.130	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.282	-
predicted_SO	0.865	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	-0.077
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.850	-0.280
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.547	0.088
predicted_H	0.902	-0.068
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.037	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.375	-0.084
predicted_RBI	0.130	-0.011
predicted_SLG	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	0.866	0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.130

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	0.2857	0.4048	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.0000	0.1714	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	144.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	17.000	17.000	32.000	0.2847	0.3697	0.4306	0.2847	0.0278	0.0833	0.1181	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.6510
predicted_AVG	0.2340
predicted_BB	0.6090
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3508
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.1220
predicted_SLG	0.2820
predicted_SO	0.8660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.0570	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1300	3.6510	3.8498	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2340	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.6090	0.5468	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.8540	0.9021	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0350	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3508	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.3160	0.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1220	0.1295	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8650	0.8660	0.8656	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	607043
playerID	607043
playerName	Brandon Nimmo
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.1850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1852

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.176	2.000	-0.176	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	2.000	0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.500	-0.065	-0.250
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.441	2.000	-0.441	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_SO	0.853	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.176	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.853	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.007
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.194	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.177	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.719	0.131
predicted_H	0.555	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.000
predicted_R	0.599	0.158
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.365	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.758	-0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	0.2000	0.4286	0.4667	0.2000	0.0667	0.1333	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.0968	0.2632	0.2258	0.0968	0.0323	0.0645	0.2258	0.1935
season	0.20	34	-	108.000	20.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	15.000	20.000	29.000	0.1852	0.3154	0.3426	0.1852	0.0370	0.1018	0.1852	0.2685

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2070
predicted_AVG	0.1767
predicted_BB	0.8170
predicted_H	0.5670
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3404
predicted_R	0.7180
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.3649
predicted_SO	0.6860

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1600	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1760	3.2070	3.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1767	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.8170	0.7187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5670	0.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1460	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3404	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.7180	0.5991	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3440	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3649	0.3649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8530	0.6860	0.7577	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.185

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.3210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3209

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.343	0.000	-0.343	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.321	0.750	0.012	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.229	3.000	-0.229	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.374	0.750	0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	2.000	0.571	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.522	1.500	-0.189	-1.167
predicted_SO	0.629	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.629	0.000	1.371	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.343	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.629	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.128
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.969	0.140
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000
predicted_BB	0.196	-0.090
predicted_H	1.179	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	0.022
predicted_RBI	0.417	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.297 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.0476	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	14.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4286	0.3333	0.0238	0.1429	0.0238	0.1429
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	43.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	15.000	10.000	22.000	0.3209	0.3741	0.5224	0.3209	0.0373	0.1492	0.0746	0.1642

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1210
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.0710
predicted_AVG	0.2985
predicted_BB	0.1310
predicted_H	1.2150
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.3388
predicted_R	0.4670
predicted_RBI	0.4290
predicted_SLG	0.4388
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3430	0.1210	0.2146	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	4.0710	3.9690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2985	0.2983	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1310	0.1964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2150	1.1792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1480	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3388	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4670	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4290	0.4168	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4388	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6290	0.7250	0.6845	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.321

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.2840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2840

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.240	4.000	0.760	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.284	0.000	-0.034	0.250
predicted_BB	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	0.000	0.080	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.034	0.400
predicted_R	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.480	0.000	0.520	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.560	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.000	0.043	0.500
predicted_SO	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.640	1.000	1.360	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.440	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.545	-
predicted_SO	0.640	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.075	0.035
predicted_AB	3.427	0.107
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.527	0.087
predicted_H	1.043	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.523	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.638	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.545	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4348	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.2778	0.2222	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4390	0.5758	0.3333	0.0303	0.1515	0.2121	0.1818
season	0.20	25	-	81.000	23.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	12.000	11.000	16.000	0.2840	0.3656	0.4568	0.2839	0.0247	0.1358	0.1358	0.1975

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2310
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.5150
predicted_AVG	0.3044
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_H	1.0700
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3943
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.6530
predicted_SLG	0.5451
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2400	0.2310	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1040	0.0750	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.5150	3.4267	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4400	0.6000	0.5275	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0700	1.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3943	0.3942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.5590	0.5232	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6530	0.6380	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5450	0.5451	0.5451	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6400	0.7990	0.7270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.284

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	0.000	1.917	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.179	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.302	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.179	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	0.020
predicted_H	0.555	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.277	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.1333	0.2778	0.3333	0.1333	0.0667	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	10.000	0.1613	0.2973	0.3548	0.1613	0.0323	0.0645	0.1290	0.3226
season	0.20	24	-	80.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	26.000	0.2000	0.2889	0.3500	0.2000	0.0250	0.1000	0.1000	0.3250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.2760
predicted_AVG	0.1786
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	0.5850
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.2919
predicted_R	0.3000
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.3573
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0910	0.1256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0370	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.2760	3.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1790	0.1786	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3690	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5850	0.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1400	0.1309	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2919	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.3000	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2810	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3573	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	0.9160	0.9921	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob deGrom (594798) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	6.000	1.143	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.214	6.100	-1.114	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.714	7.000	-5.714	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	9.000	23.000	7.000	34.000	4.000	2.8929	1.0714	0.3214	0.8214	0.2500	1.2143	0.1429
last_10	0.35	7	37.200	13.000	30.000	8.000	47.000	6.000	3.1062	1.0088	0.3451	0.7965	0.2124	1.2478	0.1593
season	0.20	7	37.200	13.000	30.000	8.000	47.000	6.000	3.1062	1.0088	0.3451	0.7965	0.2124	1.2478	0.1593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5230
predicted_ER	1.9510
predicted_ERA	3.4672
predicted_H	4.3960
predicted_HR	0.7050
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.6360
predicted_WHIP	1.1685

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5230	1.7739	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9510	2.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4672	3.4672	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3960	4.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7050	0.8602	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	5.6360	3.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1685	1.1685	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	81

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	3.11
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.1
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	594798
playerID	594798
playerName	Jacob deGrom
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.167	1.000	0.033	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-1.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.5172	0.2069	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	15	18.200	2.000	5.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4821	0.1071	0.2679	0.2143	0.8571	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_ER	0.4540
predicted_ERA	2.7710
predicted_H	0.9910
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3850
predicted_WHIP	0.9736

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4450	0.1813	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4540	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7710	2.7710	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9910	0.4038	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0562	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3850	0.5643	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9736	0.9736	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.759	1.000	0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	8.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.5000	0.9231	1.0385	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	17	15.000	8.000	14.000	6.000	17.000	3.000	4.8000	1.3333	0.5333	0.9333	0.4000	1.1333	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_ER	0.5070
predicted_ERA	4.8323
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9630
predicted_WHIP	1.3360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3520	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5070	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8323	4.8323	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9090	0.9649	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1730	0.0667	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9630	0.3710	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3360	1.3360	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	2.800	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.073	1.000	-0.073	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.467	1.000	0.533	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	2.6129	1.1613	0.2903	0.6774	0.4839	0.2903
season	0.20	15	16.100	3.000	8.000	5.000	7.000	1.6531	0.7959	0.1837	0.4898	0.3061	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.3370
predicted_ERA	3.0368
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6910
predicted_WHIP	1.1324

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3590	0.7475	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3370	1.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0368	3.0368	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7730	0.9106	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0780	0.6369	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6910	0.8783	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1324	1.1324	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.889	1.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.0000	2.7500	1.0000	2.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.0000	1.8889	0.4444	1.6667	0.2222	0.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	18.100	5.000	23.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	2.4545	1.5273	0.2727	1.2546	0.2727	0.7091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_ER	0.5140
predicted_ERA	4.9339
predicted_H	1.2390
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.6820
predicted_WHIP	1.6956

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3490	0.7360	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5140	0.8029	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9339	4.9339	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2390	1.6914	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1340	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6820	0.2766	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6956	1.6956	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Gavin Collyer (686560) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	2.000	-0.573	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.5625	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.8571	0.4286	0.4286	0.7500
season	0.20	11	9.200	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.8276	0.4138	0.4138	0.8276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2770
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	3.0342
predicted_H	0.6010
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6880
predicted_WHIP	1.1568

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2770	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.0883	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0342	3.0342	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6010	0.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6880	1.5476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1568	1.1568	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_CHC@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	686560
playerID	686560
playerName	Gavin Collyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

20260510_COL@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "COL 5 - 4 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "COL 5 - 4 PHI", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "COL 5 - 4 PHI", "winner": "COL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "COL 6 - 5 PHI", "winner": "COL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: COL

Jordan Beck (687597) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

System season_avg: 0.1520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1515

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3610

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_AB	3.680	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	4.000	1.526	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.048	0.200
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.526	0.000	0.474	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.197	0.200	0.003	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.327	0.600
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.016
predicted_3B	0.077	0.024
predicted_AB	3.714	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.008
predicted_H	0.684	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.231	-0.000
predicted_R	0.355	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.492	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.000
predicted_SO	1.087	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.184 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1714	0.2105	0.2857	0.1714	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.3143
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	4.000	19.000	0.1515	0.1972	0.2727	0.1515	0.0152	0.1364	0.0606	0.2879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.7440
predicted_AVG	0.1838
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	0.6880
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.2309
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.4940
predicted_SLG	0.3214
predicted_SO	1.1650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1880	0.1737	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0980	0.0766	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.7440	3.7136	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1838	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2270	0.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.6880	0.6842	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2309	0.2309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.3900	0.3548	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4940	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3214	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1650	1.0865	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.152

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	687597
playerID	687597
playerName	Jordan Beck
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.1890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1894

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.771	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.771	5.000	-0.771	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.189	0.200	-0.189	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.200	0.011	0.050
predicted_R	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.193	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.200	-0.273	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	3.000	-0.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.771	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.257	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.193	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	-0.095
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.616	-0.155
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.044
predicted_H	0.520	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.195	-0.062
predicted_RBI	0.385	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.193	0.000
predicted_SO	1.123	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1176	0.1579	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	0.1212	0.2105	0.1212	0.1212	0.0000	0.1212	0.1212	0.3333
season	0.20	35	-	132.000	25.000	8.000	1.000	10.000	9.000	7.000	40.000	0.1894	0.2394	0.2727	0.1894	0.0076	0.0758	0.0530	0.3030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.1528
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	0.5350
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.2125
predicted_R	0.1500
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.1930
predicted_SO	1.1090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.0640	0.1339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7710	3.5020	3.6160	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1528	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2760	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5350	0.5202	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0240	0.0223	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2125	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2570	0.1500	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3960	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1930	0.1930	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1090	1.1234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.189

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Tyler Freeman (671289) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.980	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	6.000	1.118	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.073	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.333	-0.160	-0.133
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	0.588	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.833	-0.179	-0.633
predicted_SO	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.980	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	0.048
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.904	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.187	0.011
predicted_H	1.098	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.352	-
predicted_HR	0.168	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.516	0.104
predicted_RBI	0.561	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000
predicted_SO	0.654	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.980

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	0.2821	0.3636	0.4615	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538	0.0256	0.1282
season	0.20	17	-	66.000	18.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	0.2727	0.3600	0.3788	0.2727	0.0303	0.1364	0.0454	0.1515

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8370
predicted_AVG	0.2811
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	1.0780
predicted_HBP	0.3520
predicted_HR	0.1660
predicted_OBP	0.3698
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.4520
predicted_SO	0.7120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.1500	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9800	3.8370	3.9043	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2811	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.1970	0.1871	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.0780	1.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3520	0.3520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1660	0.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.6080	0.5157	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.5540	0.5615	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4520	0.4520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.7120	0.6536	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	671289
playerID	671289
playerName	Tyler Freeman
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.333	-0.028	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.500	-0.092	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	0.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.655	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.333	0.000	0.167
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.655	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.098	0.015
predicted_AB	3.166	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.076
predicted_H	0.912	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.208	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.493	0.160
predicted_RBI	0.849	0.109
predicted_SLG	0.655	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	-0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.3125	0.4211	0.8750	0.3125	0.1250	0.4375	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	0.3871	0.4412	0.7419	0.3871	0.0645	0.3226	0.0968	0.1290
season	0.20	24	-	72.000	20.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	0.2778	0.3418	0.5000	0.2778	0.0278	0.1806	0.0833	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2320
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.3110
predicted_AVG	0.3079
predicted_BB	0.3920
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2320
predicted_OBP	0.3833
predicted_R	0.6320
predicted_RBI	0.9440
predicted_SLG	0.6553
predicted_SO	0.5420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2320	0.2404	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.1110	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3110	3.1660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3079	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3920	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0190	0.9122	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2320	0.2078	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3833	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.6320	0.4926	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.9440	0.8489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6550	0.6553	0.6552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.5420	0.5611	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2621

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.679	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.679	4.000	-0.679	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.250	-0.262	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.321	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.321	0.000	0.679	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	1.060	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	1.000	-0.964	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	1.000	-0.071	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.077	0.000
predicted_R	0.607	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.607	1.000	-0.607	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.369	1.000	-0.369	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.321	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.321	2.000	0.679	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.679	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	1.060	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.356	-
predicted_R	0.607	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.424	-
predicted_SO	1.321	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.760	0.081
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.345	0.024
predicted_H	1.092	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.356	0.000
predicted_R	0.684	0.078
predicted_RBI	0.415	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.424	0.000
predicted_SO	1.263	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.2703	0.3415	0.3784	0.2703	0.0270	0.1081	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.20	28	-	103.000	27.000	5.000	2.000	13.000	17.000	9.000	37.000	0.2621	0.3274	0.3689	0.2621	0.0194	0.1262	0.0874	0.3592

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8240
predicted_AVG	0.2921
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_H	1.1170
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3561
predicted_R	0.7450
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.4240
predicted_SO	1.2170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0960	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6790	3.8240	3.7604	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2921	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.3640	0.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0600	1.1170	1.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1340	0.1322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3560	0.3561	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6070	0.7450	0.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4270	0.4152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4240	0.4240	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3210	1.2170	1.2626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Brenton Doyle (686668) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.1570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1566

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	3.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.750	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.157	0.000	0.593	0.750
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	2.480	3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.250	0.503	0.500
predicted_R	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.480	1.000	0.520	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.217	0.000	0.533	0.750
predicted_SO	1.360	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.360	1.000	-1.360	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.241	-
predicted_SO	1.360	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.054
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.359	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.427	0.027
predicted_H	0.520	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.549	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	1.263	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.155 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1875	0.1250	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	0.1212	0.2162	0.1818	0.1212	0.0000	0.0606	0.1212	0.3939
season	0.20	25	-	83.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	10.000	34.000	0.1566	0.2473	0.2169	0.1566	0.0120	0.0361	0.1205	0.4096

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.3910
predicted_AVG	0.1581
predicted_BB	0.4490
predicted_H	0.5360
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2590
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.2415
predicted_SO	1.1820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.1780	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.3910	3.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1581	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4490	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5360	0.5197	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2590	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.6070	0.5495	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2490	0.2404	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2410	0.2415	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3600	1.1820	1.2626	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.157

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	686668
playerID	686668
playerName	Brenton Doyle
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3148

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	0.964	1.000
predicted_AB	3.857	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.857	4.000	-0.857	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.000	0.019	0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.214	0.000	-0.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.616	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.704	0.000	0.296	1.000
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	3.000	-1.143	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.616	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.224	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.076	0.040
predicted_AB	3.886	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.056
predicted_H	1.006	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.299	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.648	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.616	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.240	0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.857

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.7000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	0.2821	0.3778	0.6154	0.2821	0.0769	0.1282	0.1282	0.3590
season	0.20	28	-	108.000	34.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	20.000	8.000	32.000	0.3148	0.3644	0.7037	0.3148	0.1018	0.1852	0.0741	0.2963

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2040
predicted_3B	0.1070
predicted_AB	3.9090
predicted_AVG	0.2683
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.3399
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.5650
predicted_SLG	0.6155
predicted_SO	1.3150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2040	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.1070	0.0761	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8570	3.9090	3.8863	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2683	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3860	0.3424	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0490	1.0059	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3130	0.2986	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3399	0.3399	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.5970	0.6480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5650	0.5410	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6160	0.6155	0.6157	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.3150	1.2401	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2243

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2140

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	1.000	-0.171	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.057	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.057	4.000	0.943	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.250	-0.224	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.686	1.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.341	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.257	2.000	-0.257	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.943	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.943	1.000	1.057	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.057	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.571	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.943	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.110
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.306	0.249
predicted_AVG	0.268	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.498	-0.073
predicted_H	0.851	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.179	0.236

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0000	0.2778	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	0.2941	0.3750	0.3824	0.2941	0.0000	0.1765	0.1471	0.4706
season	0.20	35	-	107.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	20.000	33.000	0.2243	0.3411	0.3084	0.2243	0.0094	0.0841	0.1869	0.3084

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3630
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4930
predicted_AVG	0.2676
predicted_BB	0.4430
predicted_H	0.9350
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3475
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.3958
predicted_SO	1.3570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.3630	0.2805	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0570	3.4930	3.3056	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5710	0.4430	0.4980	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9350	0.8512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3475	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.3530	0.3857	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6600	0.5998	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3958	0.3959	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9430	1.3570	1.1791	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2426

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2490

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.010	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.000	0.157	0.400
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.087	0.400
predicted_R	0.706	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.706	0.000	0.294	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	2.529	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_SO	1.647	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.647	1.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.010	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.706	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	1.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.122	0.112
predicted_AVG	0.228	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.291	-0.033
predicted_H	0.937	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.226	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.562	-0.144
predicted_RBI	0.474	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.506	-0.141

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.010

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3636	0.2273	0.0454	0.0909	0.0454	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.4419	0.2093	0.0698	0.1395	0.0698	0.3721
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	33.000	7.000	10.000	16.000	24.000	11.000	56.000	0.2426	0.3133	0.5147	0.2427	0.0735	0.1177	0.0809	0.4118

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.2040
predicted_AVG	0.2276
predicted_BB	0.2670
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2310
predicted_OBP	0.2773
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.4172
predicted_SO	1.4040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.0980	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0100	4.2040	4.1224	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2276	0.2278	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2670	0.2910	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9570	0.9372	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2310	0.2264	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2773	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7060	0.4580	0.5623	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4850	0.4745	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4172	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6470	1.4040	1.5062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	COL
teamID	9

Tomoyuki Sugano (608372) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	4.000	-2.000	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.086	5.100	-0.986	-1.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.143	1.000	3.857	6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.100	12.000	25.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	4.1013	1.2532	0.4557	0.9494	0.3038	0.4937	0.1519
last_10	0.35	7	37.000	14.000	31.000	11.000	22.000	6.000	3.4054	1.1351	0.3784	0.8378	0.2973	0.5946	0.1622
season	0.20	7	37.000	14.000	31.000	11.000	22.000	6.000	3.4054	1.1351	0.3784	0.8378	0.2973	0.5946	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6530
predicted_ER	2.2100
predicted_ERA	4.0462
predicted_H	4.5750
predicted_HR	0.7060
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.4500
predicted_WHIP	1.2668

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.6530	0.7834	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.2100	1.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0462	4.0462	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.5750	2.6944	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7060	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	3.4500	5.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2668	1.2668	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	7
HR	0
BF	16
Pitches	75

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.41
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	61
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	37
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	608372
playerID	608372
playerName	Tomoyuki Sugano
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.936	2.000	-0.736	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	5.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	21.200	3.000	12.000	6.000	19.000	1.2462	0.8308	0.1385	0.5538	0.2769	0.8769
season	0.20	11	24.100	3.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	1.1096	0.8219	0.1233	0.5343	0.2877	0.9041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6700
predicted_ER	0.5910
predicted_ERA	2.8568
predicted_H	1.4140
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.5620
predicted_WHIP	1.1186

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6700	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5910	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8568	2.8568	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4140	1.1802	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0531	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5620	1.2446	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1186	1.1186	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.11
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jaden Hill (677955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	1.000	0.594	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.938	0.000	0.062	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	4.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	9.8182	3.0000	1.0909	2.4545	0.5454	1.0909	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	9.000	1.000	5.8696	2.4783	0.6522	1.5652	0.9130	1.1739	0.1304
season	0.20	16	13.200	6.000	15.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	3.9512	1.7561	0.4390	1.0976	0.6585	1.0976	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6610
predicted_ER	0.7850
predicted_ERA	5.2782
predicted_H	1.6980
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3600
predicted_WHIP	1.7628

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6610	0.2487	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7850	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2782	5.2782	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6980	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0527	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3600	1.1354	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7628	1.7628	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.95
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	677955
playerID	677955
playerName	Jaden Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.786	0.000	4.214	5.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	2.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	7.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	11.1176	1.7647	1.2353	1.0588	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	9.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	1.000	6.9429	1.8000	0.7714	1.0286	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857
season	0.20	14	15.200	11.000	19.000	9.000	14.000	2.000	6.3191	1.7872	0.7021	1.2128	0.5745	0.8936	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_ER	0.6880
predicted_ERA	5.9260
predicted_H	1.0390
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0640
predicted_WHIP	1.5003

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5290	0.8165	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	0.6880	3.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9260	5.9260	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	1.0390	3.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1370	0.6637	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0640	1.0249	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5003	1.5003	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	5
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	9
Pitches	41

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Brennan Bernardino (657514) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	3.000	0.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.100	-0.400	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	11.2500	1.7500	1.2500	1.5000	0.2500	0.7500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	9.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.1538	0.5769	1.0385	0.1154	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	18	15.000	6.000	15.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2667	0.4000	1.0000	0.2667	0.8667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2260
predicted_ER	0.4320
predicted_ERA	5.4699
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6480
predicted_WHIP	1.3698

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2260	0.0871	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4320	0.7811	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4699	5.4699	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7470	0.9025	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1010	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6480	0.8644	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3698	1.3698	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	657514
playerID	657514
playerName	Brennan Bernardino
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	1.000	-0.963	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	1.000	-1.562	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.6667	0.6667	2.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	5.000	13.000	5.000	21.000	1.000	3.7500	1.5000	0.4167	1.0833	0.4167	1.7500	0.0833
season	0.20	16	19.100	10.000	22.000	9.000	25.000	2.000	4.6552	1.6034	0.5172	1.1379	0.4655	1.2931	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_ER	0.3360
predicted_ERA	3.9366
predicted_H	0.7110
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	1.0070
predicted_WHIP	1.3775

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3470	0.1426	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3360	0.1381	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9366	3.9366	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7110	0.8812	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0070	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3775	1.3775	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.66
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Home Team: PHI

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 22

All-history rows before 20260510: 22

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2597

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1880

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.250	-0.260	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.250	-0.318	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.351	0.250	-0.351	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.227	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.362	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.039
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.632	0.132
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	-0.063
predicted_H	0.914	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.413	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.503	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.362	0.000
predicted_SO	0.519	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2286	0.2286	0.2857	0.2286	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.0857
season	0.20	22	-	77.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2597	0.3176	0.3506	0.2597	0.0130	0.1039	0.0649	0.1688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7450
predicted_AVG	0.2613
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	0.9780
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2859
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.3623
predicted_SO	0.4580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2550	0.2214	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7450	3.6322	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2270	0.1100	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9780	0.9145	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2859	0.2859	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.4550	0.4131	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5400	0.5032	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3620	0.3623	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.4580	0.5192	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2072

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1450

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	-0.207	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.767	1.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.250	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_R	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.367	1.000	-0.367	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.250	-0.360	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.700	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	2.300	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.367	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.070
predicted_3B	0.053	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.716	0.016
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	-0.006
predicted_H	0.756	0.046
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.190	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.482	0.115
predicted_RBI	0.735	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.4737	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.5556	0.1944	0.0833	0.3056	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	23.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	11.000	7.000	21.000	0.2072	0.2605	0.3604	0.2072	0.0270	0.1261	0.0631	0.1892

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2125
predicted_BB	0.2220
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1980
predicted_OBP	0.2594
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.7700
predicted_SLG	0.4630
predicted_SO	0.7660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.2560	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0430	0.0534	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7280	3.7158	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2125	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.2220	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7920	0.7563	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1980	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2594	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3670	0.5710	0.4822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7700	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4630	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.7660	0.7373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2439

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.460	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.205	5.000	-0.205	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.255	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.800	0.256	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	1.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_H	1.140	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	4.000	0.974	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.800	0.205	-0.300
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	2.692	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.345	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.800	0.890	0.450
predicted_SO	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.460	-
predicted_AVG	0.255	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.345	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.479	0.019
predicted_AVG	0.255	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	-0.119
predicted_H	1.142	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.269	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.984	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.460

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	24.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2917	0.2917	0.3333	0.2917	0.0000	0.0417	0.0000	0.2083
last_10	0.35	10	-	46.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	12.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.3261	0.2174	0.0217	0.0435	0.0000	0.2609
season	0.20	39	-	164.000	40.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	24.000	12.000	36.000	0.2439	0.2955	0.3598	0.2439	0.0244	0.0732	0.0732	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.4930
predicted_AVG	0.2545
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.2723
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.2690
predicted_SLG	0.3449
predicted_SO	1.0260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1940	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4600	4.4930	4.4794	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2550	0.2545	0.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.1050	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.1440	1.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2723	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.5890	0.5997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2690	0.2694	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3450	0.3449	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	1.0260	0.9836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1783

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.114	1.000	-0.114	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.750	0.072	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.657	3.000	0.343	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	2.000	-0.086	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.750	0.007	-0.500
predicted_R	0.257	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.257	2.000	0.743	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	4.000	-0.543	-4.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.279	2.500	-0.029	-2.250
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.257	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.665	-0.021
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.033
predicted_H	0.860	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.362	0.105
predicted_RBI	0.742	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.500	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.6667	0.2778	0.1111	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2821	0.4722	0.2500	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	23.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	9.000	10.000	21.000	0.1783	0.2431	0.2791	0.1783	0.0233	0.1473	0.0775	0.1628

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6490
predicted_AVG	0.2477
predicted_BB	0.2280
predicted_H	0.9040
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.2440
predicted_OBP	0.2925
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.7800
predicted_SLG	0.4997
predicted_SO	0.4620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1140	0.1830	0.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.6490	3.6646	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2477	0.2478	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2280	0.2525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9040	0.8600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2440	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2925	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2570	0.4390	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.7800	0.7419	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.4997	0.4998	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.4620	0.5204	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	10
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	4.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.339	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.750	-0.041	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	1.000	-0.281	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	1.000	-0.031	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.355	0.800	-0.105	-0.550
predicted_R	0.312	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.312	1.000	0.688	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.281	2.000	-0.281	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.418	1.500	-0.168	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.339	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.312	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.569	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.028
predicted_H	1.138	0.138
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.349	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.478	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.319 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.6111	0.3889	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5526	0.3684	0.0263	0.1579	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.20	32	-	110.000	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	24.000	0.2909	0.3554	0.4182	0.2909	0.0091	0.0818	0.0818	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.6700
predicted_AVG	0.3389
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	1.2440
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.1290
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.3770
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.5212
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.2000	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0410	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.6700	3.5693	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3390	0.3389	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.2310	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2440	1.1381	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1290	0.1164	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3120	0.3770	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.5230	0.4783	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5212	0.5211	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9040	0.8372	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2817

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	3.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	2.769	3.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.641	4.000	0.359	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.360	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.468	0.250
predicted_BB	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	2.000	-0.590	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.026	2.000	1.974	1.000
predicted_HR	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.467	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.667	0.370	0.083
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	0.410	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.758	1.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.549	0.500	0.951	1.000
predicted_SO	0.641	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.641	0.000	-0.641	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.360	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.467	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.758	-
predicted_SO	0.641	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.232	0.001
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.576	-0.104
predicted_AVG	0.360	0.000
predicted_BB	0.669	0.079
predicted_H	1.291	-0.039
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.467	-0.000
predicted_R	0.774	0.159
predicted_RBI	0.612	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.758	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.469	-0.172

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.351 HR/AB=0.106

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	3.000	3.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	0.4706	0.5714	1.0588	0.4706	0.1765	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	0.3235	0.4651	0.6765	0.3235	0.0882	0.1177	0.2647	0.1177
season	0.20	39	-	142.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	9.000	23.000	24.000	23.000	25.000	0.2817	0.3795	0.5493	0.2817	0.0634	0.1620	0.1620	0.1761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.3605
predicted_BB	0.7250
predicted_H	1.2630
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.3820
predicted_OBP	0.4669
predicted_R	0.8860
predicted_RBI	0.5990
predicted_SLG	0.7578
predicted_SO	0.3470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2330	0.2322	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.5020	3.5758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3600	0.3605	0.3603	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.7250	0.6690	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.2630	1.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.3820	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4670	0.4669	0.4669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.8860	0.7736	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.5990	0.6119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7580	0.7578	0.7579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6410	0.3470	0.4689	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	3
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2133

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.200	-0.213	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.650	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.650	0.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.200	-0.094	0.050
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	1.000	-0.650	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.625	3.000	-0.625	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.557	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.553	0.800	-0.553	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.475	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.475	3.000	0.525	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.650	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.557	-
predicted_SO	1.475	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.034	0.224
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.480	-0.170
predicted_H	0.861	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.404	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.661	0.011
predicted_RBI	0.701	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.557	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.609	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.100

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	10.000	0.2174	0.2500	0.6522	0.2174	0.1304	0.2174	0.0435	0.4348
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	19.000	0.1951	0.2667	0.5122	0.1951	0.0976	0.1463	0.0976	0.4634
season	0.20	40	-	150.000	32.000	7.000	1.000	14.000	25.000	26.000	26.000	59.000	0.2133	0.3444	0.5533	0.2133	0.0933	0.1667	0.1733	0.3933

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.1900
predicted_AVG	0.2140
predicted_BB	0.3620
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.4200
predicted_OBP	0.2793
predicted_R	0.6680
predicted_RBI	0.7300
predicted_SLG	0.5568
predicted_SO	1.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1630	0.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0070	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	4.1900	4.0341	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2140	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6500	0.3620	0.4802	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8970	0.8613	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.4200	0.4036	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2793	0.2792	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.6680	0.6606	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7300	0.7013	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5570	0.5568	0.5569	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4750	1.7020	1.6088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2411

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	1.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	0.289	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.500	0.009	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.342	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	2.000	0.105	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.500	-0.060	-0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.368	2.000	0.632	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.750	-0.112	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.342	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.002
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.772	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	0.001
predicted_H	0.983	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.575	0.207
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.981	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3256	0.3846	0.2821	0.0256	0.1026	0.0769	0.2051
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	34.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	13.000	40.000	0.2411	0.3101	0.3617	0.2411	0.0213	0.0851	0.0922	0.2837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2622
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3172
predicted_R	0.7240
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.4164
predicted_SO	0.9290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1610	0.1597	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.8150	3.7716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2622	0.2621	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3420	0.3430	0.3426	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0000	0.9833	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1380	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3172	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.7240	0.5754	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3980	0.3905	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4164	0.4162	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	0.9290	0.9808	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2630

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	3.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.390	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.333	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.430	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.273	1.000	-1.273	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.426	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	-0.360	-0.250
predicted_R	0.606	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.606	1.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.513	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.333	-0.492	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	2.000	0.212	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.390	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	1.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.426	-
predicted_R	0.606	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.513	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.076	0.046
predicted_AB	3.793	-0.025
predicted_AVG	0.390	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.258	0.076
predicted_H	1.454	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.426	-0.000
predicted_R	0.727	0.121
predicted_RBI	0.549	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.513	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.381 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.4737	0.5000	0.5789	0.4737	0.0000	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	8.000	0.4054	0.4419	0.5135	0.4054	0.0000	0.1351	0.0811	0.2162
season	0.20	33	-	126.000	42.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	20.000	6.000	26.000	0.3333	0.3603	0.4921	0.3333	0.0318	0.1667	0.0476	0.2064

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	3.7740
predicted_AVG	0.3898
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_H	1.4710
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0420
predicted_OBP	0.4256
predicted_R	0.8170
predicted_RBI	0.5550
predicted_SLG	0.5130
predicted_SO	0.8080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1200	0.1464	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1100	0.0759	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.7740	3.7928	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3900	0.3898	0.3899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.3150	0.2583	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4300	1.4710	1.4535	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0420	0.0411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4260	0.4256	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6060	0.8170	0.7270	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5550	0.5486	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5130	0.5130	0.5130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.8080	0.7995	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Cristopher Sánchez (650911) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.625	0.000	-0.625	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.925	8.000	-1.825	-3.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.500	10.000	-2.500	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	32.000	10.000	33.000	10.000	37.000	3.000	2.8125	1.3438	0.3125	1.0312	0.3125	1.1562	0.0938
last_10	0.35	8	48.100	13.000	51.000	14.000	60.000	3.000	2.4207	1.3448	0.2690	1.0552	0.2897	1.2414	0.0621
season	0.20	8	48.100	13.000	51.000	14.000	60.000	3.000	2.4207	1.3448	0.2690	1.0552	0.2897	1.2414	0.0621

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8450
predicted_ER	1.9980
predicted_ERA	3.2695
predicted_H	5.5060
predicted_HR	0.5550
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	6.0330
predicted_WHIP	1.3368

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.8450	1.4119	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.9980	1.4865	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2695	3.2695	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.5060	4.7342	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5550	0.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.0330	5.5036	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3368	1.3368	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	85

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	29
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	8.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	69
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650911
playerID	650911
playerName	Cristopher Sánchez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	1.000	2.529	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.912	1.000	0.188	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-1.059	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	9.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.9310	0.4138	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	17	16.200	8.000	16.000	6.000	18.000	2.000	4.3200	1.3200	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600	1.0800	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_ER	0.5810
predicted_ERA	4.3585
predicted_H	1.2290
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3480
predicted_WHIP	1.4485

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5100	0.8060	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.5810	2.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3585	4.3585	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2290	2.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1220	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3480	0.5336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4485	1.4485	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jhoan Duran (661395) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.820	1.000	0.280	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	0.800	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.6000	0.6000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	9	8.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.8077	0.3462	1.3846
season	0.20	9	8.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.8077	0.3462	1.3846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5170
predicted_ER	0.5010
predicted_ERA	3.6125
predicted_H	1.0910
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2970
predicted_WHIP	1.2885

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5170	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5010	0.8325	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6125	3.6125	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0910	1.6948	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1190	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2970	1.7640	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2885	1.2885	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	661395
playerID	661395
playerName	Jhoan Duran
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.850	1.000	0.250	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.2308	0.0000	0.6923	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9231	0.0000	0.4615	0.4615	0.8077	0.0000
season	0.20	16	15.000	3.000	10.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0667	0.2000	0.6667	0.4000	0.7333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	2.7659
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0610
predicted_WHIP	1.0693

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4000	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7659	2.7659	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8930	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0610	0.4088	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0693	1.0693	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.572	1.000	-0.372	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.0000	1.9091	0.0000	1.3636	0.5454	1.9091
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	10.000	4.000	11.000	1.0800	1.6800	0.1200	1.2000	0.4800	1.3200
season	0.20	18	13.100	8.000	19.000	7.000	18.000	5.4000	1.9500	0.6000	1.4250	0.5250	1.3500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	3.2503
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7850
predicted_WHIP	1.5025

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2410	0.7162	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2503	3.2503	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7150	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0560	0.0209	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7850	0.9196	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5025	1.5025	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tanner Banks (621383) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	2.000	-0.769	-1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.312	3.000	0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	3.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	4.0500	1.5000	0.4500	1.2000	0.3000	1.3500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	8.000	18.000	9.000	15.000	1.000	6.5455	2.4545	0.7273	1.6364	0.8182	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	15	16.200	9.000	23.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	4.8600	1.9200	0.5400	1.3800	0.5400	1.2600	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3800
predicted_ER	0.4350
predicted_ERA	4.5529
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.5614

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3800	0.1504	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4350	0.7763	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5529	4.5529	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9620	0.9850	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9540	1.5859	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5614	1.5614	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.94
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_COL@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	621383
playerID	621383
playerName	Tanner Banks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260510_DET@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.565, "home_win_probability": 0.565, "away_win_probability": 0.43500000000000005, "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "confidence": 0.565, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "DET 3 - 4 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "DET 2 - 5 KC", "winner": "KC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: DET

Jahmai Jones (663330) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.700	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	2.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_BB	0.222	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	0.778	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.333	0.192	0.167
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.458	0.000	-0.125	0.333
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.215	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.911	0.211
predicted_AVG	0.224	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.045
predicted_H	0.649	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.737	0.070

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	9	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.4583	0.2500	0.0417	0.1250	0.0833	0.2500
season	0.20	9	-	24.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.4583	0.2500	0.0417	0.1250	0.0833	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2050
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.1980
predicted_AVG	0.2236
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_OBP	0.3010
predicted_R	0.4720
predicted_RBI	0.3620
predicted_SLG	0.3658
predicted_SO	0.8330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2050	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7000	3.1980	2.9110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2236	0.2238	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.3290	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7150	0.6487	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0790	0.0738	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3010	0.3010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4720	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3620	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8330	0.7373	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663330
playerID	663330
playerName	Jahmai Jones
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	1.000	-0.308	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.615	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	3.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.367	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.333	-0.062	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.590	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.590	1.000	-0.590	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.128	1.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.437	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.500	-0.159	-0.250
predicted_R	0.641	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.641	0.000	0.359	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	1.000	0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.561	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.667	-0.232	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.179	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	-1.179	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.615	-
predicted_AVG	0.367	-
predicted_BB	0.590	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.437	-
predicted_R	0.641	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.561	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.424	0.116
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.626	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.367	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.505	-0.085
predicted_H	1.302	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.437	-0.000
predicted_R	0.523	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.561	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.274	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.359 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.4444	0.5000	0.6667	0.4444	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	16.000	0.3611	0.4390	0.5556	0.3611	0.0278	0.0833	0.1389	0.4444
season	0.20	39	-	141.000	44.000	12.000	4.000	20.000	25.000	23.000	46.000	0.3121	0.4085	0.4823	0.3121	0.0284	0.1418	0.1631	0.3262

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6340
predicted_AVG	0.3666
predicted_BB	0.4450
predicted_H	1.3320
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.4366
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.3240
predicted_SLG	0.5609
predicted_SO	1.3420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.5060	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6150	3.6340	3.6261	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3670	0.3666	0.3668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5900	0.4450	0.5052	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.3320	1.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4370	0.4366	0.4368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6410	0.4390	0.5229	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3240	0.3182	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5610	0.5609	0.5609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.3420	1.2743	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.500	-0.143	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.194	0.500	-0.194	-0.500
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.175	0.750	-0.175	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.329	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.037
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.552	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.226	0.004
predicted_H	0.839	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.303	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.329	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3333	0.2778	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.2647	0.3056	0.3235	0.2647	0.1177	0.0588	0.1471
season	0.20	18	-	63.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.1429	0.1940	0.1746	0.1429	0.0635	0.0635	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6000
predicted_AVG	0.2459
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2938
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.3980
predicted_SLG	0.3287
predicted_SO	0.6980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1820	0.1479	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.6000	3.5519	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2459	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2290	0.2256	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8850	0.8393	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2938	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.3790	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3980	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6980	0.6028	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-CF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2958

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.297	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.297	0.000	0.703	1.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	3.000	0.162	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.333	0.454	0.417
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.135	1.000	1.865	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.398	0.500	0.352	0.250
predicted_R	0.703	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.259	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.333	0.556	0.667
predicted_SO	0.568	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.211	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.703	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.259	-
predicted_SO	0.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-0.130
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.751	-0.179
predicted_AVG	0.211	0.000
predicted_BB	0.572	-0.023
predicted_H	0.792	-0.038
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.611	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.431	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.259	0.000
predicted_SO	0.559	-0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	6.000	0.1892	0.3182	0.1892	0.1892	0.0000	0.1081	0.1622	0.1622
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	42.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	26.000	22.000	21.000	0.2958	0.3976	0.4437	0.2958	0.0141	0.1127	0.1549	0.1479

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0740
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.6240
predicted_AVG	0.2110
predicted_BB	0.5550
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3357
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.4170
predicted_SLG	0.2593
predicted_SO	0.5520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2970	0.0740	0.1665	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0110	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	3.6240	3.7509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2110	0.2110	0.2110	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.5550	0.5716	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.7650	0.7920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0270	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3357	0.3358	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7030	0.5450	0.6105	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4170	0.4307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5680	0.5520	0.5586	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.2350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2348

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.015	0.250
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.000	-0.052	0.250
predicted_R	0.433	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.000	-0.193	0.250
predicted_SO	0.733	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	1.267	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.172	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.201	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.289	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.875	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.172	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	-0.063
predicted_H	0.663	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.083	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.201	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.608	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.289	0.000
predicted_SO	0.796	0.063

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1795	0.2000	0.3077	0.1795	0.0256	0.1538	0.0256	0.1795
season	0.20	30	-	115.000	27.000	6.000	6.000	25.000	13.000	7.000	22.000	0.2348	0.3016	0.4435	0.2348	0.0522	0.2174	0.0609	0.1913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9070
predicted_AVG	0.1722
predicted_BB	0.1230
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2006
predicted_R	0.2980
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.2895
predicted_SO	0.8430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1960	0.1977	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.9070	3.8751	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1720	0.1722	0.1721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.1230	0.1704	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6730	0.6631	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0850	0.0828	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2010	0.2006	0.2008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.2980	0.3562	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6140	0.6080	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2890	0.2895	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.8430	0.7956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.235

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Zack Short (670097) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2452

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	2.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.824	0.324
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.842	-0.158
predicted_H	0.515	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.070	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.116	0.116
predicted_RBI	0.263	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.182 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	2	-	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4000	0.4000
season	0.20	2	-	5.000	2.000	2.000	0.2857	0.4000	0.4000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1370
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.1988
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_H	0.7070
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0930
predicted_OBP	0.3029
predicted_R	0.3780
predicted_RBI	0.3610
predicted_SLG	0.3218
predicted_SO	0.9170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1370	0.0421	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5550	2.8243	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4860	0.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.7070	0.5152	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0930	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3029	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3780	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3610	0.2633	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3218	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9170	0.9745	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670097
playerID	670097
playerName	Zack Short
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 23

All-history rows before 20260510: 23

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.522	4.000	1.478	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	0.000	-0.783	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.358	0.000	-0.358	0.000
predicted_SO	0.609	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.609	1.000	-0.609	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.348	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	0.609	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.704	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.029
predicted_H	0.839	-0.011
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.522	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	-0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2162	0.2857	0.3784	0.2162	0.0270	0.1892	0.1081	0.1622
season	0.20	23	-	81.000	18.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	8.000	7.000	14.000	0.2222	0.2809	0.3580	0.2222	0.0123	0.1482	0.0864	0.1728

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2440
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6650
predicted_AVG	0.2264
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.2951
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.4022
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3480	0.2440	0.2915	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.6650	3.7038	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2264	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3580	0.3333	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.8300	0.8391	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1310	0.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2951	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.4160	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5160	0.5224	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4022	0.4021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6090	0.5270	0.5644	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2126

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	1.000	-0.216	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.432	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.432	4.000	0.568	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.250	0.037	0.000
predicted_BB	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.079	0.000
predicted_R	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.500	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.243	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.243	2.000	-1.243	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.432	-
predicted_AVG	0.165	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.351	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.243	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.251	0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.550	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.165	0.000
predicted_BB	0.491	-0.104
predicted_H	0.563	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000
predicted_R	0.263	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	9.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.2222	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	15.000	0.1622	0.2439	0.2973	0.1622	0.0270	0.0811	0.1081	0.4054
season	0.20	37	-	127.000	27.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	13.000	22.000	46.000	0.2126	0.3289	0.4173	0.2126	0.0472	0.1181	0.1732	0.3622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6350
predicted_AVG	0.1654
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.6010
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2522
predicted_R	0.1990
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.3058
predicted_SO	1.4660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2760	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4320	3.6350	3.5496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1650	0.1654	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.4160	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6010	0.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0770	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2522	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3510	0.1990	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3090	0.2884	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2430	1.4660	1.3722	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	2.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.092	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.275	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.275	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.316	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.018
predicted_H	0.595	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.236	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.221	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.1176	0.1176	0.1176	0.1177	0.1177	0.0000	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1935	0.2647	0.2581	0.1935	0.0968	0.0968	0.3871
season	0.20	12	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	0.1579	0.2195	0.2105	0.1579	0.0790	0.0790	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4820
predicted_AVG	0.1915
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.6670
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2391
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.2747
predicted_SO	1.1880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1360	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.4820	3.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1915	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2110	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6670	0.5946	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2391	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.3130	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3910	0.3482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2750	0.2747	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1880	1.2208	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Brenan Hanifee (669724) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.550	3.000	2.550	1.100
predicted_SO	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	6.200	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.9000	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	4	6.200	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.9000	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000
season	0.20	4	6.200	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.9000	0.7500	0.1500	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2640
predicted_ER	1.3930
predicted_ERA	3.3202
predicted_H	3.4010
predicted_HR	0.3840
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.3370
predicted_WHIP	1.2361

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.2640	2.4514	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.3930	0.4402	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3202	3.3202	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	3.4010	1.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3840	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	6.0000	3.3370	5.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2361	1.2361	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	6
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	78

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669724
playerID	669724
playerName	Brenan Hanifee
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Burch Smith (572143) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	2.000	1.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.400	0.100	-0.300	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	0.000	-2.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	8.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	4.2632	1.4211	0.4737	1.2632	0.1579	1.2632	0.1579
last_10	0.35	8	11.200	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	1.0286	0.3429	1.3714	0.0857
season	0.20	8	11.200	4.000	12.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	1.0286	0.3429	1.3714	0.0857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_ER	0.6080
predicted_ERA	4.1014
predicted_H	1.3590
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4220
predicted_WHIP	1.3505

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4410	0.7980	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6080	1.4970	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1014	4.1014	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3590	1.7684	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1740	0.0629	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4220	0.5138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3505	1.3505	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	572143
playerID	572143
playerName	Burch Smith
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	2.000	2.833	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	0.000	0.183	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	0.000	1.278	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.6000	0.8000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.6364	0.4546	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	17	17.200	1.000	10.000	12.000	13.000	1.000	0.5094	1.2453	0.0566	0.5660	0.6793	0.7359	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5930
predicted_ER	0.3490
predicted_ERA	2.6278
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0810
predicted_WHIP	1.2986

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5930	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3490	1.9349	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6278	2.6278	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.9600	2.7786	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1120	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0810	1.6308	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2986	1.2986	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	1.000	0.327
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_ER	0.4330
predicted_ERA	4.0476
predicted_H	0.9140
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9360
predicted_WHIP	1.3790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4150	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4330	0.1440	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0476	4.0476	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9140	1.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0489	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9360	0.9787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3790	1.3790	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Brant Hurter (676428) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	1.000	0.765	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.200	-0.776	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	1.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.4286	0.2143	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	0.000	1.2558	0.6279	0.1395	0.4884	0.1395	0.6977	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.100	4.000	12.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	1.7705	0.8361	0.1967	0.5902	0.2459	0.6885	0.0492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.3510
predicted_ERA	2.8714
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9360
predicted_WHIP	1.0351

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3510	0.7298	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8714	2.8714	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8090	0.9205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9360	1.5570	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0351	1.0351	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.77
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	676428
playerID	676428
playerName	Brant Hurter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Tyler Holton (663947) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.841	1.200	-0.641	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	8.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.3750	1.5000	0.3750	1.5000	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	17.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	6.9677	2.0323	0.7742	1.6452	0.3871	0.6774	0.1935
season	0.20	17	17.100	8.000	21.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6731	0.4615	1.2115	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	4.4400
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HR	0.1190
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6890
predicted_WHIP	1.4866

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2570	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3960	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4400	4.4400	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9360	0.9744	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1190	0.0476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6890	1.4758	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4866	1.4866	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663947
playerID	663947
playerName	Tyler Holton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Home Team: KC

Elias Díaz (553869) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3077

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3080

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	3.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.192	0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.000	0.143	0.500
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.750	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.692	0.000	0.058	0.750
predicted_SO	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.426	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.386	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.009
predicted_H	0.833	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.393	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.6923	0.3077	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769
last_10	0.35	4	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.6923	0.3077	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769
season	0.20	4	-	13.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3077	0.3571	0.6923	0.3077	0.0769	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2950
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.2651
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.9610
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.3229
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4909
predicted_SO	0.6440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.2950	0.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.6260	3.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2651	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2750	0.2590	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9610	0.8327	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1680	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3229	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5020	0.5007	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5760	0.5020	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4909	0.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2500	0.6440	0.3926	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	553869
playerID	553869
playerName	Elias Díaz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2975

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.5190

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.040	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	4.000	0.050	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	0.203	0.250
predicted_BB	0.475	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.475	0.000	0.525	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.175	1.000	0.825	1.000
predicted_HR	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.231	0.350
predicted_R	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.475	2.000	0.525	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.635	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	1.000	0.025	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.775	0.000	0.225	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.040	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.475	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.300	-
predicted_OBP	0.404	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.635	-
predicted_SO	0.775	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.283	0.008
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.949	-0.091
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.029
predicted_H	1.338	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.291	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.404	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	0.146
predicted_RBI	0.510	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.635	0.000
predicted_SO	0.717	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.331 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.667)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.040

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.4211	0.4762	0.8421	0.4210	0.1053	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3778	0.5750	0.3000	0.0750	0.1000	0.1250	0.2250
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	47.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	19.000	18.000	19.000	31.000	0.2975	0.3687	0.4747	0.2975	0.0316	0.1202	0.1202	0.1962

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2890
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8860
predicted_AVG	0.3384
predicted_BB	0.4250
predicted_H	1.3150
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.4040
predicted_R	0.6970
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.6352
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2750	0.2890	0.2833	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0138	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0400	3.8860	3.9492	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3384	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4750	0.4250	0.4455	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.3150	1.3376	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3000	0.2840	0.2906	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4040	0.4040	0.4040	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.6970	0.5956	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5030	0.5100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6350	0.6352	0.6351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7750	0.6760	0.7167	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2721

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.297	1.000	-0.297	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	0.973	1.000
predicted_AB	4.230	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	3.000	1.027	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.333	-0.072	-0.133
predicted_BB	0.405	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	1.000	-0.405	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_H	1.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	1.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.335	0.500	-0.135	-0.300
predicted_R	0.514	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.514	1.000	0.486	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.667	0.178	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.230	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	0.047
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.986	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	0.035
predicted_H	1.195	-0.075
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.484	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.462	-0.028
predicted_SLG	0.450	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.596	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.283 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.230

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3556	0.5000	0.3000	0.0250	0.1250	0.1000	0.1000
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	40.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	15.000	26.000	0.2721	0.3354	0.4218	0.2721	0.0204	0.1020	0.1020	0.1769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3780
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.2995
predicted_BB	0.4650
predicted_H	1.1420
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3724
predicted_R	0.4630
predicted_RBI	0.4420
predicted_SLG	0.4497
predicted_SO	0.5200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2970	0.3780	0.3444	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2300	3.8120	3.9856	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2995	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.4650	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.1420	1.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0600	0.0642	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3724	0.3722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.4630	0.4842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4420	0.4619	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4497	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.5200	0.5960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.2800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2796

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2680

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.100	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.100	3.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_SO	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	0.000	0.267	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.100	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.145	0.045
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.000
predicted_BB	0.254	0.054
predicted_H	0.809	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.076	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.351	-0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.2857	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.1429	0.0714
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2812	0.3611	0.3125	0.2812	0.0000	0.0625	0.0625	0.1875
season	0.20	30	-	93.000	26.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	12.000	6.000	22.000	0.2796	0.3431	0.4194	0.2796	0.0323	0.1075	0.0645	0.2366

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1820
predicted_AVG	0.2743
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.8730
predicted_HBP	0.0760
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3508
predicted_R	0.3180
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.3389
predicted_SO	0.5190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0820	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1000	3.1820	3.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2743	0.2742	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2980	0.2543	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8730	0.8092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0760	0.0760	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3508	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3180	0.3546	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3550	0.3305	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3389	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.5190	0.6145	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	1.000	0.909	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	2.000	-0.455	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.181	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.500	0.439	0.167
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	1.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.788	1.000	1.212	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.667	0.429	0.083
predicted_R	0.485	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.269	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	1.000	0.588	0.000
predicted_SO	1.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.212	0.000	-0.212	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.181	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.269	-
predicted_SO	1.212	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.472	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.434	-0.021
predicted_H	0.617	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.189	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.269	0.000
predicted_SO	1.386	0.174

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.1765	0.2632	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	17.000	0.1176	0.2308	0.1471	0.1177	0.0000	0.0294	0.1471	0.5000
season	0.20	33	-	114.000	26.000	3.000	6.000	17.000	16.000	15.000	40.000	0.2281	0.3206	0.4123	0.2281	0.0526	0.1491	0.1316	0.3509

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.1809
predicted_BB	0.4190
predicted_H	0.6300
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2715
predicted_R	0.4770
predicted_RBI	0.1950
predicted_SLG	0.2691
predicted_SO	1.5160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1500	0.1247	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.4840	3.4716	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1810	0.1809	0.1809	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4190	0.4344	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6300	0.6171	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0506	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2715	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.4770	0.4804	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1950	0.1886	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2690	0.2691	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2120	1.5160	1.3857	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Loftin (679845) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	2.000	-0.300	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.333	-0.066	-0.083
predicted_R	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	1.000	1.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.197	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.388	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	-0.023
predicted_H	0.650	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.301	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.487	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1875	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.2121	0.3158	0.2727	0.2121	0.1818	0.1515	0.1212
season	0.20	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.2121	0.3158	0.2727	0.2121	0.1818	0.1515	0.1212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1930
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.4900
predicted_AVG	0.1993
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2954
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.4850
predicted_SLG	0.3007
predicted_SO	0.5870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1930	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.4900	3.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1993	0.1991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4510	0.4773	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6960	0.6499	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0500	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2954	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.5200	0.6166	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4850	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3007	0.3009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.5870	0.4867	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	679845
playerID	679845
playerName	Nick Loftin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.1930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1929

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	0.892	1.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.820	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.784	4.000	-0.784	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.193	0.250	0.140	0.083
predicted_BB	0.459	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.222	0.250
predicted_R	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.310	0.417
predicted_SO	0.892	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.892	1.000	-0.892	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.820	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.892	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.885	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.343	-0.116
predicted_H	0.813	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.259	-0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.827	-0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.820

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3000	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2750	0.3095	0.4750	0.2750	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.20	37	-	140.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	16.000	17.000	33.000	0.1929	0.2778	0.3571	0.1929	0.0357	0.1286	0.1214	0.2357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9320
predicted_AVG	0.2090
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.2586
predicted_R	0.3760
predicted_RBI	0.3530
predicted_SLG	0.3764
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1060	0.1068	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0120	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8200	3.9320	3.8854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2090	0.2090	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.2600	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8220	0.8128	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1760	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2586	0.2588	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.3760	0.3993	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3530	0.3476	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3764	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8920	0.7800	0.8266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.193

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2475

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2480

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.367	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.367	4.000	0.633	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.567	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.250	-0.364	-0.250
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.433	1.000	-0.433	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.376	0.250	-0.376	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	2.000	-0.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.367	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.567	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.496	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.047
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.314	-0.053
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.599	0.032
predicted_H	0.974	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.147	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.000
predicted_R	0.474	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.454	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.496	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	-0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4737	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	0.3125	0.4103	0.5000	0.3125	0.0312	0.1562	0.1875	0.2812
season	0.20	30	-	101.000	25.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	14.000	17.000	35.000	0.2475	0.3636	0.3762	0.2475	0.0297	0.1287	0.1683	0.3465

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2160
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2740
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.6240
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.4051
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.4500
predicted_SLG	0.4957
predicted_SO	1.0590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.2160	0.1800	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3670	3.2740	3.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5670	0.6240	0.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9700	0.9743	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1440	0.1466	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4051	0.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.4800	0.4744	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4500	0.4543	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4960	0.4957	0.4958	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.0590	1.1059	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.2390

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2389

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	3.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.239	0.333	-0.239	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	1.000	-0.844	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.333	-0.067	-0.083
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.333	-0.389	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.188	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	1.000	-0.188	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.217	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.274	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.627	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.217	0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.042
predicted_H	0.755	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.274	-0.000
predicted_R	0.504	0.035
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	1.174	-0.014

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	13.000	0.1944	0.2564	0.3889	0.1944	0.0556	0.1111	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.20	32	-	113.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	11.000	38.000	0.2389	0.3175	0.3894	0.2389	0.0266	0.0531	0.0974	0.3363

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.7000
predicted_AVG	0.2172
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2737
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.3080
predicted_SLG	0.4022
predicted_SO	1.1630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1650	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0179	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.7000	3.6271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2170	0.2172	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.2700	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8040	0.7548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1680	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2740	0.2737	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.5300	0.5037	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3080	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4022	0.4021	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.1630	1.1738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.239

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Noah Cameron (702070) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.167	4.000	-1.167	-2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.083	5.100	-1.883	-1.900
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.667	5.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	18.000	36.000	10.000	23.000	5.000	6.0750	1.7250	0.6750	1.3500	0.3750	0.8625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	6	31.200	19.000	40.000	11.000	28.000	5.000	5.4000	1.6105	0.6000	1.2632	0.3474	0.8842	0.1579
season	0.20	6	31.200	19.000	40.000	11.000	28.000	5.000	5.4000	1.6105	0.6000	1.2632	0.3474	0.8842	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7250
predicted_ER	2.6300
predicted_ERA	5.1733
predicted_H	5.2980
predicted_HR	0.7260
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1550
predicted_WHIP	1.5349

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.7250	1.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.6300	2.2885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1733	5.1733	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.2980	6.2205	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7260	0.3325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.1550	4.6130	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5349	1.5349	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	9
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	702070
playerID	702070
playerName	Noah Cameron
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	1.194	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	0.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	3.7241	1.6552	0.4138	0.6207	1.0345	1.0345
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	0.6735	0.7347	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9760
predicted_ER	0.6670
predicted_ERA	3.3200
predicted_H	1.4110
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.7520
predicted_WHIP	1.3196

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.9760	0.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6670	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3200	3.3200	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4110	0.5557	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7520	1.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3196	1.3196	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.967	1.000	0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	2.000	-0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	1.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.5625	0.1875	1.3125	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	12.000	1.000	1.9286	0.4286	0.2143	0.3214	0.1071	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	15	15.200	3.000	5.000	4.000	20.000	1.000	1.7234	0.5745	0.1915	0.3191	0.2553	1.2766	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	3.5624
predicted_H	0.7450
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0890
predicted_WHIP	1.0478

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3030	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3960	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5624	3.5624	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7450	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1310	0.0510	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0890	1.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0478	1.0478	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.1000
season	0.20	15	14.200	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.6818	1.2273	0.4091	0.8182	0.4091	1.0227	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3910
predicted_ER	0.3970
predicted_ERA	3.5708
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9760
predicted_WHIP	1.2811

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3910	0.7667	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3970	0.1521	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5708	3.5708	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8910	0.9582	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9760	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2811	1.2811	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.100	0.213	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.2500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	0.4800
season	0.20	16	14.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	10.000	1.9286	1.1429	0.2143	0.6429	0.5000	0.7143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3260
predicted_ERA	3.2419
predicted_H	0.7930
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7670
predicted_WHIP	1.2592

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3260	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2419	3.2419	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7930	0.3002	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7670	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2592	1.2592	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_DET@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260510_HOU@CIN

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 3 CIN", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 3 CIN", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 3 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "HOU 6 - 1 CIN", "winner": "HOU"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: HOU

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3265

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.675	2.000	1.325	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.500	-0.327	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	2.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.325	0.000	-0.325	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.432	0.750	-0.432	-0.750
predicted_R	0.675	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	0.000	-0.725	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.660	1.000	-0.660	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	1.000	0.450	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.209	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.576	-0.194
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000
predicted_BB	0.495	-0.105
predicted_H	1.045	-0.055
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.219	-0.011
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.000
predicted_R	0.566	-0.110
predicted_RBI	0.456	-0.024
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	0.732	0.182

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.0811	0.1081	0.2973
season	0.20	40	-	147.000	48.000	10.000	13.000	29.000	27.000	24.000	22.000	0.3265	0.4318	0.6599	0.3265	0.0884	0.1973	0.1633	0.1497

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4410
predicted_AVG	0.2924
predicted_BB	0.4210
predicted_H	1.0060
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_OBP	0.3890
predicted_R	0.4890
predicted_RBI	0.4390
predicted_SLG	0.5305
predicted_SO	0.8590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1800	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7700	3.4410	3.5764	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2924	0.2922	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4210	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0060	1.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2120	0.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3890	0.3890	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.4890	0.5655	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4390	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5305	0.5303	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.8590	0.7318	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.130	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	4.000	0.111	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.257	0.250
predicted_BB	0.472	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	1.000	1.056	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.269	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	0.271	0.350
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.379	0.250	0.871	1.000
predicted_SO	0.861	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.861	0.000	-0.861	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.130	-
predicted_AVG	0.212	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.269	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.861	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	0.022
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.964	-0.166
predicted_AVG	0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	-0.168
predicted_H	0.843	-0.037
predicted_HBP	0.115	-
predicted_HR	0.036	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.269	-0.000
predicted_R	0.608	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.231	-0.009
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.960	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.130

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.1795	0.2381	0.2564	0.1795	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	36	-	140.000	34.000	10.000	3.000	9.000	24.000	17.000	31.000	0.2429	0.3291	0.3786	0.2429	0.0214	0.0643	0.1214	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3150
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8450
predicted_AVG	0.2124
predicted_BB	0.1830
predicted_H	0.8160
predicted_HBP	0.1150
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.2689
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.2240
predicted_SLG	0.3218
predicted_SO	1.0300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.3150	0.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1300	3.8450	3.9640	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2120	0.2124	0.2122	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.1830	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8160	0.8427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1150	0.1150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0340	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2690	0.2689	0.2689	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5650	0.6076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2240	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3218	0.3219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8610	1.0300	0.9595	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

César Salazar (663967) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2452

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	0.000	2.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.194	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.647	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.117	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.203	0.203

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000
season	0.20	1	-	3.000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2229
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3608
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.8310	0.6467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1090	0.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4420	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4250	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3608	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7620	0.2026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	C-P
gameID	20260506_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663967
playerID	663967
playerName	César Salazar
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Nick Allen (669397) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.056	0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.150	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.000	0.083
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.009
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.191	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.061
predicted_H	0.755	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.000
predicted_R	0.454	-0.046
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.564	0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2667	0.2667	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	6	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3333	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667
season	0.20	6	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.3333	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.2544
predicted_BB	0.1780
predicted_H	0.8850
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2953
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.3714
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1900	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4810	3.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2544	0.2542	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1780	0.2715	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8850	0.7552	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2953	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3840	0.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2620	0.2246	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3714	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6610	0.5638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669397
playerID	669397
playerName	Nick Allen
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2897

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4030

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.718	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.718	4.000	1.282	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.000	-0.090	0.200
predicted_BB	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.077	0.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.238	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.000	-0.158	0.200
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.538	0.000	-0.338	0.200
predicted_SO	0.744	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.744	0.000	0.256	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.718	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.238	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	0.744	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.137	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.820	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.111
predicted_H	0.764	0.024
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.238	-0.000
predicted_R	0.538	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.382	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.369	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.759	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.200 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	7.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.4103	0.2564	0.0513	0.1026	0.0513	0.1795
season	0.20	39	-	145.000	42.000	9.000	9.000	27.000	24.000	14.000	29.000	0.2897	0.3580	0.5379	0.2897	0.0621	0.1862	0.0965	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8920
predicted_AVG	0.2009
predicted_BB	0.1680
predicted_H	0.7820
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.2377
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.3689
predicted_SO	0.7700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0700	0.1370	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7180	3.8920	3.8196	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2009	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.1680	0.2475	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7820	0.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1930	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2380	0.2377	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.4830	0.5379	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.3900	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3689	0.3689	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7440	0.7700	0.7592	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	1.838	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.568	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.455	0.667
predicted_BB	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.757	0.000	1.243	2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.237	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.000	0.450	0.750
predicted_R	0.432	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	0.568	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.405	0.000	2.595	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	1.008	1.333
predicted_SO	1.135	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.135	2.000	-0.135	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.568	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.237	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	1.135	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.593	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.182	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.315	-0.090
predicted_H	0.641	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.237	-0.000
predicted_R	0.364	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.277	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.106	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3158	0.2105	0.0263	0.1316	0.0526	0.3421
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	28.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	15.000	42.000	0.2121	0.3000	0.3258	0.2121	0.0227	0.1136	0.1136	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.1817
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.6560
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2366
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2567
predicted_SO	1.0850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0840	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5680	3.6110	3.5929	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1817	0.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.2490	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.6560	0.6409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2370	0.2366	0.2368	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.3140	0.3636	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2820	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2567	0.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1350	1.0850	1.1060	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_R	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.199	0.199
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.067	0.067
predicted_H	0.744	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	0.970	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5833	0.2500	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5833	0.2500	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	4	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.5833	0.2500	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5720
predicted_AVG	0.2466
predicted_BB	0.1920
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.2907
predicted_R	0.4180
predicted_RBI	0.4900
predicted_SLG	0.4501
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2060	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.5720	3.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2466	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1920	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.8810	0.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1670	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2907	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4180	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4900	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4501	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9140	0.9701	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Brice Matthews (694728) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 23

All-history rows before 20260510: 23

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2267

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.261	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.261	3.000	0.739	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.739	0.000	-0.739	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.522	0.000	-0.522	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	1.217	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.217	0.000	-0.217	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	3.261	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.261	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	1.217	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.076	0.033
predicted_AB	3.438	0.177
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.296	0.035
predicted_H	0.787	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.510	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.497	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	1.090	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2500	0.4706	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	0.3158	0.3571	0.6316	0.3158	0.0790	0.2105	0.0790	0.3158
season	0.20	23	-	75.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	10.000	6.000	28.000	0.2267	0.2805	0.4667	0.2267	0.0533	0.1600	0.0800	0.3733

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.1040
predicted_AB	3.5900
predicted_AVG	0.2380
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.2972
predicted_R	0.5740
predicted_RBI	0.5370
predicted_SLG	0.4915
predicted_SO	0.9810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.0980	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.1040	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2610	3.5900	3.4376	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2380	0.2380	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2610	0.3260	0.2959	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8540	0.7873	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2010	0.1866	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2972	0.2971	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.5740	0.5096	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5370	0.4967	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4915	0.4913	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2170	0.9810	1.0903	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	694728
playerID	694728
playerName	Brice Matthews
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2602

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	4.000	0.382	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.041	0.400
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.000	-0.140	0.250
predicted_SO	0.647	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.660	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.363	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	0.013
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.502	-0.158
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	0.002
predicted_H	0.908	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.036	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.399	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.297	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.357	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.634	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.3429	0.4390	0.4286	0.3429	0.0000	0.0571	0.1429	0.1429
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	32.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	14.000	22.000	0.2602	0.3592	0.3902	0.2602	0.0244	0.1301	0.1138	0.1789

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2280
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.3860
predicted_AVG	0.2591
predicted_BB	0.4160
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3635
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.2870
predicted_SLG	0.3566
predicted_SO	0.6240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.2280	0.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6600	3.3860	3.5021	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2591	0.2591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.4160	0.4143	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	0.8770	0.9079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0330	0.0360	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3630	0.3635	0.3633	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.3460	0.3990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2870	0.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3566	0.3568	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.6240	0.6337	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Kai-Wei Teng (678906) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.443	2.000	3.757	3.200
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	2.000	3.429	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	3.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.0714	0.3214	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	16.200	4.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	1.000	2.1600	0.9600	0.2400	0.6000	0.3600	0.9600	0.0600
season	0.20	14	23.000	6.000	15.000	7.000	22.000	3.000	2.3478	0.9565	0.2609	0.6522	0.3044	0.9565	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2860
predicted_ER	1.4470
predicted_ERA	3.4012
predicted_H	3.2100
predicted_HR	0.4320
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5880
predicted_WHIP	1.1744

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2860	1.1228	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.4470	0.6212	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4012	3.4012	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.2100	4.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4320	0.1855	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	3.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.5880	4.3938	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1744	1.1744	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	5
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	24
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.35
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	678906
playerID	678906
playerName	Kai-Wei Teng
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.929	0.000	0.071	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.821	0.100	0.379	1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	0.000	-1.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	1.6875	1.3125	0.1875	0.7500	0.5625	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	6.000	9.000	11.000	14.000	1.000	5.4000	2.0000	0.6000	0.9000	1.1000	1.4000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	12.200	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.2368	2.2895	1.0263	1.0263	1.2632	1.5790	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7990
predicted_ER	0.6900
predicted_ERA	4.2995
predicted_H	1.3180
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6370
predicted_WHIP	1.4669

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7990	0.2948	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6900	0.8856	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2995	4.2995	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3180	0.4863	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1710	0.0631	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6370	0.6040	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4669	1.4669	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.24
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

AJ Blubaugh (805123) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.440	1.000	-0.340	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	14.200	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	2.000	1.8409	1.0909	0.2046	0.5454	0.5454	0.9546	0.1364
season	0.20	15	23.000	13.000	19.000	13.000	21.000	4.000	5.0870	1.3913	0.5652	0.8261	0.5652	0.9130	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6510
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	3.4714
predicted_H	1.1050
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3830
predicted_WHIP	1.2224

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6510	0.2795	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4714	3.4714	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1050	0.4744	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1920	0.0824	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3830	1.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2224	1.2224	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	805123
playerID	805123
playerName	AJ Blubaugh
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	2.000	-0.933	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	7.000	11.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	6.0968	1.3548	0.6774	1.0645	0.2903	0.9677	0.0000
season	0.20	15	16.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.1875	0.5000	0.9375	0.2500	0.8750	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_ER	0.4470
predicted_ERA	4.0246
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9710
predicted_WHIP	1.2102

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3250	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4470	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0246	4.0246	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8860	0.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9710	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2102	1.2102	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.062	2.000	-0.862	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	2.000	-0.154	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	13.000	4.000	10.000	3.4615	1.3077	0.3846	1.0000	0.3077	0.7692
season	0.20	13	15.200	6.000	16.000	5.000	15.000	3.4468	1.3404	0.3830	1.0213	0.3191	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3140
predicted_ER	0.4240
predicted_ERA	4.4149
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7430
predicted_WHIP	1.3694

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3140	0.7327	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4240	0.1652	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4149	4.4149	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8700	0.3390	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0269	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7430	0.8999	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3694	1.3694	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	37
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	1.000	-0.468	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.8182	2.7273	1.0909	2.1818	0.5454	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	4.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.6957	1.8261	0.5217	1.4348	0.3913	0.3913	0.1304
season	0.20	19	16.200	8.000	15.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	4.3200	1.3200	0.4800	0.9000	0.4200	0.6600	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_ER	0.4070
predicted_ERA	5.2863
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HR	0.1070
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5420
predicted_WHIP	1.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2890	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4070	0.1611	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2863	5.2863	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8520	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1070	0.0424	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5420	0.8187	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6460	1.6460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.32
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Home Team: CIN

Blake Dunn (694362) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	2.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	0.167	0.167
predicted_BB	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.600	0.600	0.150	0.150
predicted_R	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	1.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	1.250	1.250	0.083	0.083
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	0.045
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.951	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.282	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.823	-0.177
predicted_H	1.030	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.234	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.875	-0.125
predicted_RBI	0.521	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.519	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.715	-0.285

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5000	0.6000	1.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5000	0.6000	1.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.5000	0.6000	1.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1560
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8290
predicted_AVG	0.2816
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.2420
predicted_OBP	0.3488
predicted_R	0.5650
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.5188
predicted_SO	1.0110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1560	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0037	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8290	3.9508	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2816	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3840	0.8227	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0790	1.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2420	0.2335	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3488	0.3489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	0.5650	0.8748	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5480	0.5209	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5188	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0110	1.7153	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-CF
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	694362
playerID	694362
playerName	Blake Dunn
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.333	-0.210	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.333	-0.310	-0.333
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.333	-0.319	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.056	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.056	1.000	-0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.374	-
predicted_SO	1.056	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.712	-0.121
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.344	-0.156
predicted_H	0.848	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.136	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.374	0.000
predicted_SO	0.859	-0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	0.1892	0.2105	0.2703	0.1892	0.0270	0.0811	0.0270	0.2432
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	29.000	6.000	3.000	12.000	15.000	18.000	38.000	0.2101	0.3101	0.3188	0.2101	0.0217	0.0870	0.1304	0.2754

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2413
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2891
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3744
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0540	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.6250	3.7118	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2413	0.2412	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.2320	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8750	0.8479	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1410	0.1364	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2891	0.2891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3610	0.3844	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4540	0.4398	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3740	0.3744	0.3742	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0560	0.7180	0.8591	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2422

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.530	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.459	3.000	0.541	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.333	0.008	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.333	-0.069	-0.083
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	1.000	-0.378	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.401	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.333	0.070	0.167
predicted_SO	0.946	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.946	0.000	-0.946	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.530	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.401	-
predicted_SO	0.946	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.603	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	0.026
predicted_H	0.908	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.401	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.865	-0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.3143	0.3846	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.2000
season	0.20	37	-	128.000	31.000	6.000	6.000	12.000	14.000	12.000	35.000	0.2422	0.3194	0.4297	0.2422	0.0469	0.0938	0.0938	0.2734

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6570
predicted_AVG	0.2518
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_H	0.9210
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_OBP	0.3236
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.4009
predicted_SO	0.8060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0890	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5300	3.6570	3.6033	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2518	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3690	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.9210	0.9079	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1510	0.1506	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3236	0.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3830	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3280	0.3246	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4010	0.4009	0.4009	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9460	0.8060	0.8652	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2767

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.975	4.000	0.025	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.500	-0.027	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.425	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	0.000	-0.425	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.100	2.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.500	-0.095	-0.250
predicted_R	0.675	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	1.000	-0.725	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.516	0.500	-0.266	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.281	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.260	0.059
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.054	0.054
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.301	-0.124
predicted_H	1.002	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.281	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	-0.263
predicted_RBI	0.639	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.196	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.3182	0.2273	0.0000	0.1818	0.0000	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.2564	0.3023	0.3333	0.2564	0.0000	0.1282	0.0769	0.3077
season	0.20	40	-	159.000	44.000	8.000	10.000	29.000	27.000	17.000	50.000	0.2767	0.3446	0.5157	0.2767	0.0629	0.1824	0.1069	0.3145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3010
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0910
predicted_AVG	0.2471
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.2813
predicted_R	0.2280
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.3679
predicted_SO	1.1590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3010	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0910	4.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2471	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.2140	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0110	1.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0630	0.0618	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2810	0.2813	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	0.2280	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.6450	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3679	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.1590	1.1964	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.1340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1340

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1340

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_3B	0.033	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.233	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.233	2.000	-0.233	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.134	0.000	0.199	0.333
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.433	0.000	0.567	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.192	0.000	0.141	0.333
predicted_R	0.233	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.900	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.227	0.000	0.107	0.333
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-
predicted_3B	0.033	-
predicted_AB	3.233	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.233	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.053	0.020
predicted_3B	0.035	0.002
predicted_AB	3.376	0.143
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.213	-0.020
predicted_H	0.631	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.282	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	0.225

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2286	0.2500	0.4000	0.2286	0.0286	0.0571	0.0286	0.3143
season	0.20	30	-	97.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	18.000	0.1340	0.1923	0.2268	0.1340	0.0206	0.0309	0.0722	0.1856

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0700
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.4910
predicted_AVG	0.1994
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	0.6960
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2441
predicted_R	0.3210
predicted_RBI	0.3120
predicted_SLG	0.3560
predicted_SO	1.0050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0330	0.0700	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0330	0.0360	0.0347	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2330	3.4910	3.3763	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1994	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.1970	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6960	0.6311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2441	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2330	0.3210	0.2819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3120	0.2844	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3560	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	1.0050	0.8249	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.134

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Will Benson (666181) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1837

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1840

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	2.890	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.722	1.000	1.278	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	2.000	-0.444	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.667	-0.298	-0.667
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	2.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.368	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	0.047
predicted_3B	0.034	-0.022
predicted_AB	3.032	0.142
predicted_AVG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.503	0.059
predicted_H	0.779	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.368	-0.000
predicted_R	0.488	0.155
predicted_RBI	0.232	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.021	0.021

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4737	0.6000	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	10.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3704	0.2222	0.0370	0.0370	0.2222	0.3704
season	0.20	18	-	49.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	18.000	0.1837	0.2982	0.3061	0.1837	0.0204	0.0408	0.1633	0.3674

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.1710
predicted_AVG	0.2579
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.3679
predicted_R	0.6400
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.4388
predicted_SO	1.0420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.1500	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0130	0.0343	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8900	3.1710	3.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2579	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.5610	0.5030	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8180	0.7793	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1330	0.1266	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3680	0.3679	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.6400	0.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2430	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4388	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0420	1.0212	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	666181
playerID	666181
playerName	Will Benson
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2450

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.775	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.775	4.000	0.225	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	-0.245	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	1.000	-0.925	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.250	-0.329	-0.250
predicted_R	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.483	0.250	-0.483	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	2.000	1.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.775	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.550	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.867	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.424	-0.076
predicted_H	0.741	0.021
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.262	-0.000
predicted_R	0.469	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.306	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.849	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1250	0.1860	0.2000	0.1250	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	40	-	151.000	37.000	6.000	10.000	30.000	22.000	20.000	32.000	0.2450	0.3295	0.4834	0.2450	0.0662	0.1987	0.1325	0.2119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9320
predicted_AVG	0.1920
predicted_BB	0.3710
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_OBP	0.2616
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.3110
predicted_SLG	0.3349
predicted_SO	0.8840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.0540	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7750	3.9320	3.8672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1920	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3710	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7550	0.7406	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1680	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2616	0.2618	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5500	0.4120	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3110	0.3065	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3349	0.3349	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8840	0.8494	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.272	0.000	-0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	-1.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.305	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.056
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.443	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.059
predicted_H	0.708	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.149	0.006
predicted_RBI	0.152	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.305	0.000
predicted_SO	1.170	0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2821	0.2857	0.2000	0.0000	0.0286	0.1143	0.3429
season	0.20	28	-	92.000	16.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	32.000	0.1739	0.2804	0.2717	0.1739	0.0217	0.0652	0.1522	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2080
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.2136
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	0.7620
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2936
predicted_R	0.1540
predicted_RBI	0.1620
predicted_SLG	0.3051
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.2080	0.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.5680	3.4432	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2136	0.2138	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3940	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7620	0.7080	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2936	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.1540	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1620	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3050	0.3051	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1910	1.1698	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.583	0.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.000	-0.112	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.454	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.583	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.454	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.011
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.528	0.195
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	-0.075
predicted_H	0.797	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.196	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.454	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.4000	0.2000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.2286	0.3415	0.5429	0.2286	0.0857	0.1714	0.1714	0.1714
season	0.20	12	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3617	0.6000	0.2500	0.1000	0.1750	0.1750	0.1750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1890
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7340
predicted_AVG	0.2298
predicted_BB	0.4290
predicted_H	0.8580
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_OBP	0.3116
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.5530
predicted_SLG	0.4537
predicted_SO	0.6970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1890	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.7340	3.5276	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2298	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5830	0.4290	0.5082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8580	0.7973	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2120	0.1955	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3116	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4240	0.4631	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5530	0.5103	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4540	0.4537	0.4539	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.6970	0.6383	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Andrew Abbott (671096) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.875	0.000	0.125	3.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.837	5.200	-0.737	-1.100
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.500	4.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.100	17.000	29.000	13.000	17.000	4.000	6.5571	1.8000	0.7286	1.2429	0.5571	0.7286	0.1714
last_10	0.35	8	40.100	23.000	47.000	19.000	28.000	5.000	5.1322	1.6364	0.5703	1.1653	0.4711	0.6942	0.1240
season	0.20	8	40.100	23.000	47.000	19.000	28.000	5.000	5.1322	1.6364	0.5703	1.1653	0.4711	0.6942	0.1240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1810
predicted_ER	2.7480
predicted_ERA	5.3716
predicted_H	5.1180
predicted_HR	0.6710
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	3.7320
predicted_WHIP	1.5853

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1810	2.0882	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7480	2.8771	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3716	5.3716	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.1180	4.5450	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6710	0.8396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.7320	4.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5853	1.5853	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.13
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	98
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	671096
playerID	671096
playerName	Andrew Abbott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Brock Burke (656271) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.342	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.158	1.000	-1.158	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	5.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	10.3846	2.7692	1.1539	1.6154	1.1539	1.6154
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	9.000	8.000	12.000	4.8214	1.8214	0.5357	0.9643	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	19	17.200	6.000	16.000	11.000	22.000	3.0566	1.5283	0.3396	0.9057	0.6226	1.2453

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7350
predicted_ER	0.7100
predicted_ERA	5.3435
predicted_H	1.2760
predicted_HR	0.0900
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3770
predicted_WHIP	1.6816

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7350	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7100	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3435	5.3435	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2760	1.1109	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0900	0.6344	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3770	0.5533	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6816	1.6816	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656271
playerID	656271
playerName	Brock Burke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.211	0.000	1.789	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.974	1.000	0.126	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.158	2.000	-1.158	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	3.1765	1.4118	0.3529	0.7059	0.7059	1.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	1.5000	0.1875	0.6562	0.8438	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	19	19.200	4.000	13.000	12.000	22.000	1.000	1.8305	1.2712	0.2034	0.6610	0.6102	1.1186	0.0508

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6390
predicted_ER	0.4490
predicted_ERA	3.4044
predicted_H	0.9810
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1990
predicted_WHIP	1.3644

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6390	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4490	1.3597	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4044	3.4044	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.9810	2.1665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1490	0.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1990	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3644	1.3644	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.83
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	4.000	-0.529	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	0.000	0.206	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	5.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	1.0345	0.4138	0.8276	0.3103
season	0.20	16	15.200	5.000	11.000	9.000	16.000	3.000	2.8723	1.2766	0.3191	0.7021	0.5745	1.0213	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5300
predicted_ER	0.6680
predicted_ERA	4.9883
predicted_H	1.2650
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1080
predicted_WHIP	1.4891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5300	1.4272	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6680	0.2603	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9883	4.9883	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2650	1.1033	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2880	0.1122	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1080	1.6524	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4891	1.4891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.17
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.632	5.000	-0.632	-5.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.905	1.000	-0.705	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.105	0.000	-0.105	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	7.000	8.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	10.5000	1.8333	1.1667	1.3333	0.5000	1.1667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	7.000	10.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	5.9062	1.5938	0.6562	0.9375	0.6562	1.1250	0.0000
season	0.20	18	20.000	10.000	15.000	17.000	21.000	1.000	4.5000	1.6000	0.5000	0.7500	0.8500	1.0500	0.0500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_ER	0.5620
predicted_ERA	5.7468
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.4924

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4320	0.1791	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5620	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7468	5.7468	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8820	0.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9110	0.9631	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4924	1.4924	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Pierce Johnson (572955) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.694	1.000	-0.494	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	0.8571	0.6429	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7931	1.1379	0.3103	0.7241	0.4138	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	18	16.000	6.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	3.3750	1.2500	0.3750	0.9375	0.3125	0.9375	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3410
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	4.2219
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7040
predicted_WHIP	1.3244

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3410	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3740	0.7548	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2219	4.2219	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7140	0.8880	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1110	0.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7040	1.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3244	1.3244	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_HOU@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	572955
playerID	572955
playerName	Pierce Johnson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

20260510_LAA@TOR

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.565, "home_win_probability": 0.565, "away_win_probability": 0.43500000000000005, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TOR", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TOR", "confidence": 0.565, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 4 TOR", "winner": "TOR"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "LAA 3 - 5 TOR", "winner": "TOR"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: LAA

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2215

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	4.170	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	5.000	0.050	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.200	-0.222	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.200	-0.330	-0.200
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.399	0.200	-0.399	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.450	3.000	-0.450	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	4.170	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.415	-
predicted_SO	1.450	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.083
predicted_3B	0.078	0.053
predicted_AB	3.967	-0.203
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.108
predicted_H	0.878	-0.042
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.154	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.599	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.485	-0.025
predicted_SLG	0.415	0.000
predicted_SO	1.388	-0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.170

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	17.000	0.1579	0.2500	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.4474
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	26.000	24.000	58.000	0.2215	0.3297	0.3987	0.2215	0.0380	0.1139	0.1519	0.3671

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.1150
predicted_AB	3.8260
predicted_AVG	0.2218
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	0.8490
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2981
predicted_R	0.5640
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.4150
predicted_SO	1.3450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0590	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.1150	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1700	3.8260	3.9667	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2218	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.4170	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8490	0.8780	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1500	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5640	0.5992	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.4670	0.4846	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4150	0.4150	0.4150	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4500	1.3450	1.3879	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2745

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.643	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.533	1.000	0.467	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	0.000	-0.933	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.250	-0.111	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SO	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.643	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.640	-0.003
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.458	-0.042
predicted_H	0.708	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.284	-0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.441	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.264	0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.0588	0.2000	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.1177	0.1765	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.2703	0.3171	0.4595	0.2703	0.0270	0.1351	0.0811	0.0270
season	0.20	14	-	51.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	0.2745	0.3559	0.4118	0.2745	0.0196	0.1177	0.1373	0.0392

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6370
predicted_AVG	0.1993
predicted_BB	0.4180
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2839
predicted_R	0.2850
predicted_RBI	0.4520
predicted_SLG	0.3125
predicted_SO	0.3810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1870	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6430	3.6370	3.6400	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1993	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4180	0.4584	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7250	0.7078	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0720	0.0710	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2839	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2850	0.3559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4520	0.4412	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3125	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1430	0.3810	0.2638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2569

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3160

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.250	-0.007	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	1.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	-0.056	0.000
predicted_R	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.382	0.250	-0.132	0.000
predicted_SO	0.694	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.694	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.362	0.112
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.981	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	-0.107
predicted_H	1.149	0.049
predicted_HBP	0.039	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.4500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.3500	0.3659	0.4750	0.3500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1750
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	37.000	9.000	3.000	20.000	13.000	10.000	25.000	0.2569	0.3057	0.3819	0.2569	0.0208	0.1389	0.0694	0.1736

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4420
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9680
predicted_AVG	0.2987
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	1.1850
predicted_HBP	0.0390
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3214
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.4374
predicted_SO	0.8380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.4420	0.3618	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9680	3.9814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2987	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.0940	0.1709	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1850	1.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0390	0.0390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3214	0.3212	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.4390	0.4064	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3060	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4374	0.4372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6940	0.8380	0.7778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 5

All-history rows before 20260510: 5

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.600	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.600	2.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.333	-0.036	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_SO	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	0.040
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.896	0.296
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.221	0.021
predicted_H	0.649	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.110	0.110
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.348	0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2308	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769
last_10	0.35	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2308	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769
season	0.20	5	-	13.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2308	0.2857	0.2308	0.2308	0.0769	0.0769

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.4190
predicted_AVG	0.2406
predicted_BB	0.2590
predicted_H	0.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3002
predicted_R	0.3040
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3440
predicted_SO	0.6080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1100	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6000	3.4190	2.8964	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2406	0.2409	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2590	0.2214	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.8230	0.6488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0750	0.0590	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3002	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3040	0.1100	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2920	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3440	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2000	0.6080	0.3477	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Bryce Teodosio (669326) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.917	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.917	3.000	1.083	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.667	-0.286	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	-0.833	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.750	-0.324	-0.750
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.343	1.000	-0.343	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.250	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.250	0.000	-1.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.036
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.107	0.190
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.030
predicted_H	0.960	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.382	-0.000
predicted_R	0.406	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.176	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.309 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.5333	0.5625	0.6667	0.5333	0.0667	0.0667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.3103	0.3548	0.3793	0.3103	0.0345	0.0690	0.4138
season	0.20	12	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	15.000	0.2857	0.3243	0.3429	0.2857	0.0571	0.0571	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3300
predicted_AVG	0.3339
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3816
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.4546
predicted_SO	1.0900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2460	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9170	3.3300	3.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3339	0.3340	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2330	0.1974	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	1.1120	0.9599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3816	0.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4910	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2850	0.2446	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4546	0.4548	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.0900	1.1763	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	669326
playerID	669326
playerName	Bryce Teodosio
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Oswald Peraza (672724) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2809

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	4.000	-0.560	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.240	0.000	0.760	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.250	-0.090	0.000
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.461	0.250	-0.461	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.920	0.000	1.080	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.240	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.365	-
predicted_SO	0.920	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.001
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.733	0.173
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.057
predicted_H	0.999	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.270	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.245	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.3333	0.2857	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	10.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.3243	0.2973	0.0000	0.0270	0.0270	0.2703
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.2809	0.3402	0.4607	0.2809	0.0449	0.1011	0.0674	0.2584

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8740
predicted_AVG	0.2785
predicted_BB	0.1370
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3274
predicted_R	0.2290
predicted_RBI	0.2660
predicted_SLG	0.3654
predicted_SO	0.9560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1610	0.1606	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.8740	3.7328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2785	0.2787	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2400	0.1370	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0790	0.9985	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3274	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.2290	0.2699	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2660	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3650	0.3654	0.3652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9200	0.9560	0.9398	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	672724
playerID	672724
playerName	Oswald Peraza
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2536

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.538	3.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	0.080	0.333
predicted_BB	0.923	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.923	0.000	0.077	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.000	0.082	0.500
predicted_R	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.821	0.000	0.179	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.000	-0.196	0.333
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	3.000	-0.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.923	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.821	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.594	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.696	-0.227
predicted_H	0.898	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.353	-0.000
predicted_R	0.624	-0.197
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000
predicted_SO	1.366	0.212

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.249 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	0.2857	0.4048	0.4571	0.2857	0.0571	0.0857	0.1714	0.5429
season	0.20	39	-	138.000	35.000	5.000	11.000	23.000	32.000	36.000	45.000	0.2536	0.4181	0.5290	0.2536	0.0797	0.1667	0.2609	0.3261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5890
predicted_AVG	0.2499
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.3526
predicted_R	0.4860
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.4344
predicted_SO	1.5140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0470	0.0803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.5890	3.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2499	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9230	0.5370	0.6957	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.8970	0.8982	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2040	0.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3526	0.3528	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8210	0.4860	0.6238	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4130	0.4118	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4344	0.4342	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.5140	1.3660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.583	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.583	3.000	0.417	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.017	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.528	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.667	0.035	-0.167
predicted_SO	1.306	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.306	0.000	-0.306	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.583	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.327	-
predicted_R	0.528	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.436	-
predicted_SO	1.306	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.165	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.489	-0.094
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.445	-0.027
predicted_H	0.757	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.196	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.475	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.510	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.436	0.000
predicted_SO	1.210	-0.096

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	11.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4412	0.2353	0.0588	0.1471	0.1471	0.3235
season	0.20	36	-	129.000	30.000	6.000	8.000	28.000	19.000	17.000	47.000	0.2326	0.3333	0.4651	0.2326	0.0620	0.2170	0.1318	0.3643

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.7470
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.3273
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.4365
predicted_SO	1.1410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1630	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5830	3.4210	3.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.4260	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7470	0.7566	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.1930	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3270	0.3273	0.3272	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5280	0.4360	0.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5030	0.5101	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4360	0.4365	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3060	1.1410	1.2102	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2611

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2350

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.075	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.925	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.925	3.000	0.075	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	0.239	0.500
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.025	0.000	0.975	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	0.196	0.250
predicted_R	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	0.000	0.475	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	0.143	0.500
predicted_SO	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.950	1.000	0.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.925	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.350	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.950	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.045
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.633	-0.292
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.000
predicted_BB	0.073	-0.027
predicted_H	0.835	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.259	-
predicted_HR	0.035	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.232	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.331	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	1.056	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.925

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2667	0.2000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	12.000	0.2571	0.2973	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.0857	0.0000	0.3429
season	0.20	40	-	157.000	41.000	3.000	4.000	21.000	14.000	4.000	38.000	0.2611	0.3036	0.3567	0.2611	0.0255	0.1338	0.0255	0.2420

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4270
predicted_AVG	0.2342
predicted_BB	0.0540
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HBP	0.2590
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.1490
predicted_RBI	0.3170
predicted_SLG	0.3073
predicted_SO	1.1300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0750	0.1520	0.1201	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9250	3.4270	3.6332	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2342	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.0540	0.0730	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8030	0.8349	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2590	0.2590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0320	0.0353	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3500	0.1490	0.2322	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3170	0.3307	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3073	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9500	1.1300	1.0555	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Soriano (667755) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.125	5.000	1.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.775	4.000	-2.575	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.750	5.000	-1.750	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.200	8.000	25.000	13.000	33.000	4.000	2.7000	1.4250	0.3000	0.9375	0.4875	1.2375	0.1500
last_10	0.35	8	46.200	9.000	32.000	19.000	54.000	5.000	1.7357	1.0929	0.1929	0.6857	0.4071	1.1571	0.1071
season	0.20	8	46.200	9.000	32.000	19.000	54.000	5.000	1.7357	1.0929	0.1929	0.6857	0.4071	1.1571	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0830
predicted_ER	1.6550
predicted_ERA	3.0881
predicted_H	4.2900
predicted_HR	0.6430
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	5.3770
predicted_WHIP	1.3216

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0830	2.5530	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.6550	2.3443	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0881	3.0881	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.2900	4.6539	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6430	0.3135	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.2000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.3770	5.1838	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3216	1.3216	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	88
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	667755
playerID	667755
playerName	José Soriano
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Ryan Zeferjahn (666171) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.369	1.100	-0.169	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.923	3.000	-0.923	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	1.1250	0.6250	0.1250	0.1250	0.5000	1.3750
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	8.000	10.000	9.000	17.000	4.8000	1.2667	0.5333	0.6667	0.6000	1.1333
season	0.20	13	19.200	10.000	11.000	11.000	25.000	4.5763	1.1186	0.5085	0.5593	0.5593	1.2712

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7360
predicted_ER	0.6670
predicted_ERA	3.7182
predicted_H	1.1380
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.7700
predicted_WHIP	1.1598

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7360	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6670	0.2754	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7182	3.7182	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1380	0.4698	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7700	1.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1598	1.1598	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.58
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666171
playerID	666171
playerName	Ryan Zeferjahn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	1.000	1.462	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.200	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.615	3.000	-1.615	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.2632	0.9474	0.4737	0.6316	0.3158	1.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.2000	1.0667	0.4667	0.6667	0.4000	1.0667	0.1333
season	0.20	13	18.200	7.000	11.000	10.000	21.000	2.000	3.3750	1.1250	0.3750	0.5893	0.5357	1.1250	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_ER	0.7020
predicted_ERA	4.1419
predicted_H	1.2360
predicted_HR	0.2490
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5510
predicted_WHIP	1.1972

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5890	0.2400	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.7020	1.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1419	4.1419	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2360	2.2813	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2490	0.1015	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5510	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1972	1.1972	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Kirby Yates (489446) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3690
predicted_ER	0.4490
predicted_ERA	4.0397
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9610
predicted_WHIP	1.3127

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3690	1.6026	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4490	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0397	4.0397	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9430	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1240	0.0302	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9610	0.2341	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3127	1.3127	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	1
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	489446
playerID	489446
playerName	Kirby Yates
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.606	2.000	-0.406	-1.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	4.000	-0.824	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	2.1429	0.4286	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	3.2400	1.9200	0.3600	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	0.0000
season	0.20	17	13.100	4.000	12.000	10.000	14.000	1.000	2.7000	1.6500	0.3000	0.9000	0.7500	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3970
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	3.9263
predicted_H	0.7150
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6830
predicted_WHIP	1.5472

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3970	0.1484	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3140	0.7435	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9263	3.9263	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7150	0.8935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0640	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6830	0.2553	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5472	1.5472	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Home Team: TOR

Tyler Heineman (623168) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1800

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.941	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.778	2.000	1.222	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.000	0.070	0.250
predicted_BB	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.226	0.000	0.024	0.250
predicted_R	0.235	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.202	0.250	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.180	0.000	0.070	0.250
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	0.000	-0.722	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.059	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.202	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.082	0.141
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.000
predicted_BB	0.077	0.018
predicted_H	0.412	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.200	-0.000
predicted_R	0.210	-0.025
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.774	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	0.0667	0.0968	0.0667	0.0667	0.0333	0.0000	0.3000
season	0.20	17	-	50.000	9.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1800	0.2264	0.1800	0.1800	0.0400	0.0200	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0550
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.2240
predicted_AVG	0.1470
predicted_BB	0.0960
predicted_H	0.4740
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.1998
predicted_R	0.1850
predicted_RBI	0.1870
predicted_SLG	0.2018
predicted_SO	0.7840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0550	0.0274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9410	3.2240	3.0817	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1470	0.1470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0590	0.0960	0.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4740	0.4117	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0380	0.0340	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.1998	0.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.1850	0.2101	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1870	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2020	0.2018	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7840	0.7744	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	623168
playerID	623168
playerName	Tyler Heineman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2596

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.500	-0.260	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	2.000	-0.964	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.600	-0.298	-0.600
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	3.000	-0.429	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.441	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.442	1.250	-0.442	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.179	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.441	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.890	0.176
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.131	-0.048
predicted_H	0.997	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.196	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.498	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.441	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.819	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.4091	0.2727	0.0454	0.0909	0.0000	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	8.000	0.2564	0.2683	0.5128	0.2564	0.0769	0.1538	0.0000	0.2051
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	27.000	4.000	5.000	16.000	12.000	5.000	21.000	0.2596	0.2982	0.4423	0.2596	0.0481	0.1538	0.0481	0.2019

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0930
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.0280
predicted_AVG	0.2604
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.2939
predicted_R	0.5510
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.4405
predicted_SO	0.8730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0930	0.1149	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	4.0280	3.8905	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2604	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1790	0.0940	0.1312	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0490	0.9969	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2090	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2939	0.2939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5510	0.4976	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5050	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4410	0.4405	0.4407	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8730	0.8191	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Myles Straw (664702) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2955

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.933	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.933	3.000	-0.933	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	-0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.467	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.467	0.000	1.533	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.000	0.115	0.500
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.467	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.027
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.090	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.000
predicted_BB	0.480	0.013
predicted_H	0.776	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.354	-0.000
predicted_R	0.606	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.485	0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2857	0.3889	0.5714	0.2857	0.0714	0.2143	0.2143	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	0.2581	0.3684	0.4194	0.2581	0.0323	0.0968	0.1935	0.1613
season	0.20	15	-	44.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	6.000	0.2955	0.3846	0.4091	0.2954	0.0227	0.0682	0.1591	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1880
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2500
predicted_AVG	0.2660
predicted_BB	0.4930
predicted_H	0.8640
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3538
predicted_R	0.5440
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4532
predicted_SO	0.5720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1880	0.1602	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9330	3.2500	3.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2660	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4670	0.4930	0.4799	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8640	0.7762	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1370	0.1234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5440	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4460	0.4026	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4532	0.4531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.5720	0.4852	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	664702
playerID	664702
playerName	Myles Straw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2540

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	4.000	0.294	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	-0.941	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	-0.529	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.588	0.000	-0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.294	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.272	-
predicted_SO	0.588	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.693	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.090	-0.027
predicted_H	0.760	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	0.577	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, weight=0.084, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1622	0.1795	0.1892	0.1622	0.0000	0.1081	0.0000	0.1622
season	0.20	34	-	126.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	10.000	4.000	20.000	0.2540	0.2782	0.3889	0.2540	0.0238	0.1429	0.0318	0.1587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6830
predicted_AVG	0.2145
predicted_BB	0.0700
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2449
predicted_R	0.2680
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.2721
predicted_SO	0.5690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.0890	0.1262	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.6830	3.6928	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2145	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.0700	0.0905	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7900	0.7601	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0334	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2449	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2940	0.2680	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4350	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5880	0.5690	0.5771	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4200

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.342	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.342	0.000	0.658	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.330	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.053	5.000	0.947	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.299	1.000	0.301	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.290	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.211	5.000	1.789	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	1.000	0.281	-0.400
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	3.000	0.632	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	2.000	-0.316	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.800	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.422	1.600	0.378	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.330	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.132	-
predicted_H	1.290	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.289	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-0.150
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.090	-0.240
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.166	0.034
predicted_H	1.222	-0.068
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.171	-0.009
predicted_OBP	0.331	-0.000
predicted_R	0.454	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.527	-0.033
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	0.308	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.330

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3500	0.3500	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3256	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.1316	0.1053	0.0526
season	0.20	38	-	154.000	46.000	13.000	2.000	12.000	14.000	5.000	11.000	0.2987	0.3187	0.4221	0.2987	0.0130	0.0779	0.0325	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9180
predicted_AVG	0.2992
predicted_BB	0.1900
predicted_H	1.1730
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1640
predicted_OBP	0.3307
predicted_R	0.5150
predicted_RBI	0.5040
predicted_SLG	0.4473
predicted_SO	0.3210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3420	0.0850	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3300	3.9180	4.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1320	0.1900	0.1658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2900	1.1730	1.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1640	0.1707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3307	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.5150	0.4537	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.5040	0.5273	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4473	0.4472	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2890	0.3210	0.3077	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	5
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1760

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.711	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	4.000	-0.711	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	-0.921	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.658	1.000	-0.658	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.571	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.482	0.250	-0.482	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.184	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.184	0.000	-0.184	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.079	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.711	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.526	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.571	-
predicted_SO	1.184	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.040
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.710	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.507	0.033
predicted_H	1.107	0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.283	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.758	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.571	0.000
predicted_SO	1.065	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.076

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.7368	0.3158	0.1316	0.3158	0.1579	0.2368
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	35.000	3.000	10.000	25.000	20.000	18.000	45.000	0.2482	0.3333	0.4823	0.2482	0.0709	0.1773	0.1277	0.3191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.2999
predicted_BB	0.5310
predicted_H	1.1120
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2850
predicted_OBP	0.3875
predicted_R	0.5510
predicted_RBI	0.7630
predicted_SLG	0.5714
predicted_SO	0.9800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0790	0.1480	0.1192	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7110	3.7090	3.7098	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.5310	0.5072	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.1120	1.1070	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2850	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5260	0.5510	0.5406	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.7630	0.7576	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5710	0.5714	0.5712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1840	0.9800	1.0651	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): 0.0078

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.524	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.462	2.000	-0.462	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.111	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.283	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	1.692	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.333
predicted_SO	0.810	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	1.000	1.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.524	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.810	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.610	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.042	0.042
predicted_H	0.906	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.124
predicted_RBI	0.355	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.889	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3158	0.5263	0.3158	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	0.2286	0.2286	0.3429	0.2286	0.0286	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.20	21	-	74.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	17.000	0.2297	0.2297	0.3378	0.2297	0.0135	0.0811	0.2297

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6860
predicted_AVG	0.2615
predicted_BB	0.0790
predicted_H	0.9640
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1300
predicted_OBP	0.2792
predicted_R	0.5680
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.4165
predicted_SO	0.9590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.1740	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5240	3.6860	3.6097	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2615	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0790	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9640	0.9056	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1300	0.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.5680	0.4574	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3780	0.3554	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4165	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8100	0.9590	0.8889	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (665489) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3191

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	5.000	-0.711	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.400	0.014	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.184	2.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.407	0.400	0.093	0.100
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	0.395	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.447	1.000	1.553	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.400	-0.078	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.819	0.059
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.459	-0.041
predicted_H	1.039	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.628	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.320	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.580	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	4.000	0.2895	0.3864	0.3158	0.2895	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	45.000	7.000	2.000	17.000	23.000	19.000	19.000	0.3191	0.4074	0.4113	0.3191	0.0142	0.1206	0.1348	0.1348

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8610
predicted_AVG	0.2726
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3516
predicted_R	0.6450
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.3196
predicted_SO	0.6370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.0910	0.1297	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.8610	3.8190	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2726	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4300	0.4591	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0520	1.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3516	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6450	0.6284	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.3910	0.3864	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3196	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6370	0.5800	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	665489
playerID	665489
playerName	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2419

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3970

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	5.000	0.242	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.600	0.258	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.909	3.000	1.091	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.600	0.181	-0.100
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	2.000	0.485	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.600	0.113	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.697	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.282	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.007
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.775	-0.075
predicted_AVG	0.282	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	0.050
predicted_H	1.067	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.562	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.264	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.392	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.752	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.3889	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2632	0.3488	0.3947	0.2632	0.0263	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
season	0.20	33	-	124.000	30.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	17.000	12.000	23.000	0.2419	0.3188	0.3871	0.2419	0.0323	0.0726	0.0968	0.1855

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.2824
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	1.0500
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3659
predicted_R	0.5970
predicted_RBI	0.2600
predicted_SLG	0.3917
predicted_SO	0.7930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1940	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.7190	3.7747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2820	0.2824	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.4510	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0500	1.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0690	0.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3659	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.5970	0.5621	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2600	0.2643	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3917	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.7930	0.7522	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Spencer Miles (693686) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.636	2.000	1.364	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.509	1.100	2.591	3.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	1.000	3.545	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.200	3.000	6.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	3.5217	0.9130	0.3913	0.7826	0.1304	0.9130	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	17.000	7.000	16.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	3.7059	1.1765	0.4118	0.9412	0.2353	0.8823	0.1177
season	0.20	11	18.000	7.000	16.000	5.000	16.000	2.000	3.5000	1.1667	0.3889	0.8889	0.2778	0.8889	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9850
predicted_ER	1.4110
predicted_ERA	3.9423
predicted_H	2.9220
predicted_HR	0.3270
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.0070
predicted_WHIP	1.2129

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.9850	2.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.4110	1.7622	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9423	3.9423	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	2.9220	3.5648	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3270	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.1000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.0070	4.1954	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2129	1.2129	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	105

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693686
playerID	693686
playerName	Spencer Miles
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.556	0.000	0.444	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.861	1.000	0.339	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.667	1.000	-1.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	14.000	5.000	13.000	1.000	8.0000	2.1111	0.8889	1.5556	0.5556	1.4444	0.1111
season	0.20	18	16.200	10.000	22.000	7.000	30.000	2.000	5.4000	1.7400	0.6000	1.3200	0.4200	1.8000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_ER	0.6840
predicted_ERA	4.3954
predicted_H	1.5460
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5430
predicted_WHIP	1.4454

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4790	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6840	0.8749	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3954	4.3954	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.5460	1.8203	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5430	0.6108	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4454	1.4454	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.879	1.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.053	0.000	-0.053	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.5625	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	8.000	0.000	4.5000	1.4000	0.5000	0.7000	0.7000	0.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	19	20.200	6.000	14.000	8.000	20.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.9677	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_ER	0.4750
predicted_ERA	4.2793
predicted_H	0.8020
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9310
predicted_WHIP	1.2348

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4320	0.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4750	0.1986	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2793	4.2793	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8020	0.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0314	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9310	0.9712	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2348	1.2348	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.526	0.000	0.474	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.0000	1.0714	0.0000	0.4286	0.6429	1.2857
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	7.000	4.000	14.000	0.9643	1.1786	0.1071	0.7500	0.4286	1.5000
season	0.20	19	19.200	1.000	14.000	7.000	29.000	0.4576	1.0678	0.0508	0.7119	0.3559	1.4746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_ER	0.2830
predicted_ERA	2.5458
predicted_H	0.7910
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1520
predicted_WHIP	1.2300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4390	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2830	0.1168	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5458	2.5458	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7910	0.3266	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0297	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1520	1.6499	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2300	1.2300	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.46
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	3.000	7.000	0.000	4.000	6.2308	1.6154	0.6923	1.6154	0.0000	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	4.0000	1.1111	0.4444	1.0000	0.1111	0.5556
season	0.20	18	17.200	4.000	15.000	4.000	10.000	2.0377	1.0755	0.2264	0.8491	0.2264	0.5660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.4860
predicted_ERA	4.3698
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8620
predicted_WHIP	1.3275

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4860	0.1953	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3698	4.3698	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0670	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8620	0.3463	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3275	1.3275	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.04
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Mason Fluharty (689254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 20

All-history rows before 20260510: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.450	0.000	0.550	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.485	1.000	-0.285	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.950	2.000	1.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.3333	0.6667	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	6.200	5.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	6.7500	1.3500	0.7500	0.9000	0.4500	1.3500	0.1500
season	0.20	19	13.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	4.6098	1.3171	0.5122	0.8049	0.5122	1.3902	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.3930
predicted_ERA	5.3034
predicted_H	0.6590
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7310
predicted_WHIP	1.4345

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3930	0.7716	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3034	5.3034	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6590	0.8717	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0710	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7310	1.5226	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4345	1.4345	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_LAA@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	689254
playerID	689254
playerName	Mason Fluharty
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

20260510_MIN@CLE

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.56, "away_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "MIN 4 - 5 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 2 - 6 CLE", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: MIN

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1090

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.460	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	2.000	1.615	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.615	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.333	-0.390	-0.333
predicted_R	0.538	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	-0.538	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.398	0.000	-0.398	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.460	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.615	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.355	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.230	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.637	0.177
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	-0.201
predicted_H	0.902	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.107	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.088
predicted_RBI	0.408	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.355	0.000
predicted_SO	0.682	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2973	0.3659	0.4324	0.2973	0.0000	0.1081	0.0811	0.1622
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	24.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	14.000	16.000	18.000	0.2727	0.3905	0.3977	0.2727	0.0114	0.1250	0.1818	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2290
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.7780
predicted_AVG	0.2478
predicted_BB	0.2530
predicted_H	0.9360
predicted_HBP	0.1070
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3119
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.4220
predicted_SLG	0.3553
predicted_SO	0.6740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2290	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0380	0.0380	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4600	3.7780	3.6368	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2478	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6150	0.2530	0.4137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9360	0.9023	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1070	0.1070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3119	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.3800	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4220	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3550	0.3553	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.6740	0.6820	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.150	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.178	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.000	-0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.583	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.192	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.000	-0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	4.000	-0.917	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.150	-
predicted_BB	0.389	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.178	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.192	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.004	0.226
predicted_AVG	0.150	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.138
predicted_H	0.597	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.178	0.000
predicted_R	0.408	-0.175
predicted_RBI	0.291	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.158	0.241

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	9.000	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0909	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.4091
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	13.000	0.1395	0.1591	0.1395	0.1395	0.0000	0.0465	0.0233	0.3023
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	28.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	14.000	33.000	0.2059	0.2829	0.3088	0.2059	0.0221	0.1323	0.1029	0.2427

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0580
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1680
predicted_AVG	0.1498
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	0.6240
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.1785
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.3060
predicted_SLG	0.1919
predicted_SO	1.3330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0580	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	4.1680	4.0043	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1500	0.1498	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3890	0.1520	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6240	0.5971	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0341	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1780	0.1785	0.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.2820	0.4083	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3060	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1920	0.1919	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.3330	1.1584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2595

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.189	1.000	-0.189	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.027	1.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	0.973	1.000
predicted_AB	4.520	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.270	5.000	0.730	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.400	-0.059	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	2.000	-0.108	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.351	1.000	-0.351	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.314	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.400	-0.110	-0.200
predicted_R	0.784	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.784	1.000	0.216	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	2.000	0.432	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.679	0.600	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.563	1.200	0.037	-0.600
predicted_SO	1.189	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	2.000	-1.189	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	4.520	-
predicted_AVG	0.287	-
predicted_BB	0.270	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.480	-
predicted_OBP	0.314	-
predicted_R	0.784	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.679	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.252	0.063
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	4.474	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.287	0.000
predicted_BB	0.204	-0.066
predicted_H	1.285	-0.015
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.478	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.314	-0.000
predicted_R	0.763	-0.021
predicted_RBI	1.018	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.679	0.000
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.106

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.520

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	24.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2917	0.2917	0.7500	0.2917	0.1250	0.2917	0.0000	0.2917
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	11.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.7955	0.3182	0.1364	0.2500	0.0454	0.2046
season	0.20	37	-	158.000	41.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	21.000	29.000	10.000	44.000	0.2595	0.3099	0.5633	0.2595	0.0823	0.1329	0.0633	0.2785

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2970
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.4420
predicted_AVG	0.2872
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	1.2750
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.4760
predicted_OBP	0.3138
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	1.0100
predicted_SLG	0.6791
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1890	0.2970	0.2524	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5200	4.4420	4.4742	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2870	0.2872	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2700	0.1580	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.2750	1.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4800	0.4760	0.4777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3140	0.3138	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7840	0.7490	0.7635	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.0100	1.0183	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6790	0.6791	0.6791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	1.1260	1.1520	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3293

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3650

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	5.000	-0.417	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.600	0.337	0.067
predicted_BB	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.125	3.000	0.875	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.456	0.600	0.294	0.150
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	1.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.800	0.252	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.583	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.344	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.781	0.364
predicted_AVG	0.344	0.000
predicted_BB	0.560	-0.190
predicted_H	1.281	0.151
predicted_HBP	0.023	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.406	-0.000
predicted_R	0.416	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.196	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.339 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3913	0.4167	0.4348	0.3913	0.0000	0.0000	0.0435	0.0870
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.3750	0.4444	0.4250	0.3750	0.0000	0.0500	0.1250	0.1250
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	11.000	18.000	14.000	0.3293	0.4563	0.4146	0.3293	0.0122	0.0732	0.2195	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	4.0740
predicted_AVG	0.3443
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_H	1.4030
predicted_HBP	0.0230
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.4056
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.2170
predicted_SLG	0.4205
predicted_SO	0.5760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1910	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	4.0740	3.7814	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3440	0.3443	0.3442	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.4070	0.5597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.4030	1.2814	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0230	0.0230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4056	0.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.3830	0.4164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2170	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4205	0.4203	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.5760	0.5791	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 27

All-history rows before 20260510: 27

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3030

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3850

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.185	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	0.815	1.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.250	-0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.593	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.593	1.000	-0.593	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.402	0.400	-0.152	-0.150
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.852	1.000	-0.852	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.544	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.525	0.250	-0.025	0.250
predicted_SO	0.815	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.815	2.000	-0.815	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.185	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.593	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.379	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.544	-
predicted_SO	0.815	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.284	0.099
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.800	0.100
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.544	-0.049
predicted_H	1.162	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.379	-0.000
predicted_R	0.768	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.634	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.544	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.854	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3750	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	0.3590	0.4222	0.5897	0.3590	0.0513	0.1795	0.1282	0.2051
season	0.20	27	-	99.000	30.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	21.000	16.000	22.000	0.3030	0.4017	0.5253	0.3030	0.0505	0.2323	0.1616	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3600
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.8780
predicted_AVG	0.3057
predicted_BB	0.5060
predicted_H	1.1860
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3785
predicted_R	0.7610
predicted_RBI	0.6450
predicted_SLG	0.5438
predicted_SO	0.8840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1850	0.3600	0.2837	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0090	0.0212	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.8780	3.8004	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5930	0.5060	0.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1860	1.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1820	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3790	0.3785	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.7610	0.7684	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6450	0.6341	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5440	0.5438	0.5439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8150	0.8840	0.8539	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.0780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_BB	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.354	0.000	-0.354	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	3.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	0.458	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.303	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	0.017
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.213	-0.204
predicted_AVG	0.170	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.489	0.031
predicted_H	0.518	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.285	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.000
predicted_R	0.588	0.130
predicted_RBI	0.395	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.303	0.000
predicted_SO	1.069	-0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.152 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.0833	0.3529	0.1667	0.0833	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3667	0.2000	0.0333	0.2000	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	11.000	27.000	0.1951	0.3196	0.3537	0.1951	0.0366	0.1098	0.1341	0.3293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1980
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.0470
predicted_AVG	0.1698
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	0.5170
predicted_HBP	0.2850
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3411
predicted_R	0.6950
predicted_RBI	0.3910
predicted_SLG	0.3031
predicted_SO	1.0230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1980	0.1841	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.0470	3.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1698	0.1699	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4580	0.5140	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.5170	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2850	0.2850	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0670	0.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3411	0.3411	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.6950	0.5884	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3910	0.3950	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3030	0.3031	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.0230	1.0689	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.360	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.360	3.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.560	0.000	-0.560	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.268	0.250	-0.018	0.000
predicted_R	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.360	0.000	-0.360	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	-0.298	0.000
predicted_SO	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	0.000	-0.080	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.132	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.209	-
predicted_R	0.360	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.188	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.498	0.138
predicted_AVG	0.132	0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	-0.081
predicted_H	0.433	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.116	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.209	0.000
predicted_R	0.361	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.188	0.000
predicted_SO	1.064	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.124 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, weight=0.114, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.0556	0.1429	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1111	0.1750	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.20	25	-	84.000	14.000	2.000	3.000	11.000	9.000	10.000	27.000	0.1667	0.2680	0.2976	0.1667	0.0357	0.1310	0.1191	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.1322
predicted_BB	0.2520
predicted_H	0.4770
predicted_HBP	0.1160
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.2093
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.1880
predicted_SO	1.0510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0800	0.0540	0.0657	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3600	3.6110	3.4981	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1320	0.1322	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.2520	0.3186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.4770	0.4334	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1160	0.1160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2090	0.2093	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3600	0.3620	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3020	0.2741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1880	0.1880	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.0510	1.0640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2357

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	2.000	0.316	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	2.000	-0.474	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	0.000	-0.868	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.500	-0.323	-0.500
predicted_R	0.474	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.396	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	0.000	0.421	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.463	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.396	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.033
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.276	-0.409
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.873	0.399
predicted_H	0.902	-0.068
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.463	0.000
predicted_R	0.597	0.123
predicted_RBI	0.184	-0.016
predicted_SLG	0.396	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.402	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	0.3333	0.6000	0.4167	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.6667	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	8.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	3.000	0.2759	0.4500	0.4138	0.2759	0.0000	0.0690	0.3448	0.1035
season	0.20	38	-	140.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	15.000	18.000	18.000	22.000	0.2357	0.3230	0.3143	0.2357	0.0071	0.1071	0.1286	0.1571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9840
predicted_AVG	0.2861
predicted_BB	1.1580
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.4630
predicted_R	0.6850
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.3955
predicted_SO	0.2760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2670	0.2437	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	2.9840	3.2755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2861	0.2861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	1.1580	0.8732	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.8540	0.9023	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4630	0.4630	0.4630	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.6850	0.5971	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.1730	0.1842	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3960	0.3955	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.2760	0.4022	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	5.000	0.286	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.238	0.500
predicted_BB	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.000	0.186	0.500
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.430	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.000	0.835	1.250
predicted_SO	0.743	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	1.000	0.257	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.257	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.430	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	0.123
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.874	0.160
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.000
predicted_BB	0.223	-0.034
predicted_H	1.118	0.128
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.719	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.430	0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.289 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.4762	0.3333	0.0000	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.3250	0.3415	0.4000	0.3250	0.0000	0.2000	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	34.000	5.000	5.000	21.000	17.000	9.000	26.000	0.2615	0.3143	0.4154	0.2615	0.0385	0.1615	0.0692	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3560
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9920
predicted_AVG	0.3035
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	1.2120
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.3391
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.7770
predicted_SLG	0.4302
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.3560	0.2656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.9920	3.8740	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3035	0.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2570	0.1980	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.2120	1.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3391	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.5330	0.5130	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.7770	0.7188	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4300	0.4302	0.4301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.6610	0.6958	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Andrew Morris (702193) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.125	0.000	0.875	2.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.750	0.200	2.450	4.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.875	1.000	1.125	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.100	3.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	0.9643	0.3214	0.7500	0.1071
last_10	0.35	8	16.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.9592	1.5306	0.5510	1.2245	0.3061	0.9184	0.0612
season	0.20	8	16.100	9.000	20.000	5.000	15.000	1.000	4.9592	1.5306	0.5510	1.2245	0.3061	0.9184	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2930
predicted_ER	1.5850
predicted_ERA	3.9443
predicted_H	3.5550
predicted_HR	0.4140
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.2480
predicted_WHIP	1.3403

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.2930	1.7216	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.5850	1.8366	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9443	3.9443	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.5550	2.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4140	0.1630	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	3.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.2480	3.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3403	1.3403	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	702193
playerID	702193
playerName	Andrew Morris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 21

All-history rows before 20260510: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	6.000	0.333	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	0.200	0.457	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.619	1.000	1.381	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	9.000	10.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	18.6923	3.0000	2.0769	2.3077	0.6923	0.6923	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	13.000	4.000	8.000	3.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.5600	0.4800	0.9600	0.3600
season	0.20	21	17.000	14.000	23.000	8.000	13.000	4.000	7.4118	1.8235	0.8235	1.3529	0.4706	0.7647	0.2353

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_ER	1.0030
predicted_ERA	8.0200
predicted_H	1.4730
predicted_HR	0.3060
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0070
predicted_WHIP	1.7701

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5180	0.8082	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0030	1.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.0200	8.0200	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.4730	0.5860	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3060	0.1217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0070	1.6049	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7701	1.7701	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	6
Pitching_ERA	7.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.200	0.047	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.7143	0.7143	0.5714
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	6.000	10.000	7.000	11.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.8823	0.6177	0.9706
season	0.20	17	19.000	9.000	17.000	11.000	16.000	4.2632	1.4737	0.4737	0.8947	0.5789	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	3.9752
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9320
predicted_WHIP	1.3843

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2177	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4700	0.7831	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9752	3.9752	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9410	1.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0780	0.6226	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9320	0.9722	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3843	1.3843	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Funderburk (681892) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.621	0.100	0.379	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.2308	0.9231	0.4615	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	0.000	2.8929	0.9643	0.3214	0.3214	0.6429	0.4286	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	10.000	1.000	2.8125	1.3750	0.3125	0.5625	0.8125	0.6250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_ER	0.4340
predicted_ERA	3.9063
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7740
predicted_WHIP	1.2500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5470	0.2143	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4340	0.1700	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9063	3.9063	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7030	0.8837	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7740	0.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2500	1.2500	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.81
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681892
playerID	681892
playerName	Kody Funderburk
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.782	1.000	0.218	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.200	1.000	8.000	0.000	6.000	1.3500	1.2000	0.1500	1.2000	0.0000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	13.000	3.000	8.000	2.3824	1.4118	0.2647	1.1471	0.2647	0.7059
season	0.20	16	16.100	5.000	18.000	5.000	13.000	2.7551	1.4082	0.3061	1.1020	0.3061	0.7959

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3110
predicted_ER	0.3920
predicted_ERA	3.3310
predicted_H	1.0890
predicted_HR	0.0830
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.3214

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3110	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3920	0.1544	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3310	3.3310	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0890	0.4289	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0830	0.0327	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9540	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3214	1.3214	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luis García (472610) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	-	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.333	0.000	0.667	2.000
predicted_IP	-	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	-0.500	-0.800
predicted_SO	-	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 0.100

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.7143	1.0714	0.8571	0.8571	0.2143	0.0000	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.3000	1.5000	0.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.2000	0.2000
season	0.20	11	11.000	9.000	15.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.3636	1.6364	0.8182	1.3636	0.2727	0.3636	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_ER	0.3040
predicted_ERA	5.0972
predicted_H	0.5270
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.3810
predicted_WHIP	1.3280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1850	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3040	0.1082	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0972	5.0972	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5270	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0970	0.0345	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3810	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3280	1.3280	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	10.64
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	472610
playerID	472610
playerName	Luis García
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: CLE

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.300	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.300	3.000	1.700	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.218	0.400
predicted_BB	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	1.400	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.400	0.028	0.000
predicted_R	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.700	0.000	0.300	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	1.600	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.127	0.400
predicted_SO	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.800	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.700	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	0.033
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.414	0.114
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.642	-0.158
predicted_H	0.672	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.205	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.680	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	0.1818	0.3721	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.1212	0.2424	0.1818
season	0.20	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	0.1818	0.3721	0.2727	0.1818	0.0303	0.1212	0.2424	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5390
predicted_AVG	0.2061
predicted_BB	0.4690
predicted_H	0.7290
predicted_HBP	0.2050
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3325
predicted_R	0.6590
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.3503
predicted_SO	0.6310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0690	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0029	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3000	3.5390	3.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2061	0.2060	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8000	0.4690	0.6423	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7290	0.6719	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2050	0.2050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3325	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7000	0.6590	0.6805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4310	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3503	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.6310	0.6148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2138

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.180	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.919	5.000	0.081	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.286	0.500
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	0.000	1.162	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.027	0.000	0.973	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.289	0.600
predicted_R	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.243	0.000	1.757	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.974	1.250
predicted_SO	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.180	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.486	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	0.486	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.031	-0.149
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.544	0.030
predicted_H	0.772	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.026	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.567	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.152	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	-0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.180

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	3.000	0.2051	0.3404	0.2821	0.2051	0.0000	0.0256	0.1795	0.0769
season	0.20	37	-	145.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	18.000	19.000	18.000	0.2138	0.3114	0.2759	0.2138	0.0069	0.0621	0.1310	0.1241

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9260
predicted_AVG	0.1917
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0240
predicted_OBP	0.3001
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.1460
predicted_SLG	0.2672
predicted_SO	0.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.2200	0.1960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1800	3.9260	4.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1917	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.5660	0.5445	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7530	0.7725	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0240	0.0265	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3001	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4860	0.6240	0.5668	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1460	0.1518	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2672	0.2671	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4860	0.3820	0.4251	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.828	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.828	4.000	1.172	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.130	0.400
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.034	0.000	0.966	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.081	0.400
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	0.517	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.400	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.468	0.000	-0.068	0.400
predicted_SO	0.828	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.828	2.000	0.172	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.828	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.297	-
predicted_SO	0.828	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.749	-0.079
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000
predicted_BB	0.239	0.067
predicted_H	0.692	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.102
predicted_RBI	0.195	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.297	0.000
predicted_SO	0.955	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.828

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.1177	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.2051	0.2619	0.2821	0.2051	0.0000	0.0256	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	29	-	111.000	30.000	7.000	5.000	15.000	14.000	5.000	24.000	0.2703	0.3193	0.4685	0.2703	0.0450	0.1351	0.0450	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2300
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6890
predicted_AVG	0.1921
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_OBP	0.2759
predicted_R	0.3020
predicted_RBI	0.1990
predicted_SLG	0.2970
predicted_SO	1.0530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2410	0.2300	0.2348	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8280	3.6890	3.7495	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1921	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.2910	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7090	0.6920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.3020	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1990	0.1951	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2970	0.2970	0.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8280	1.0530	0.9551	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF-LF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2784

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.464	3.000	1.536	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.000	-0.078	0.200
predicted_BB	0.429	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	0.000	0.036	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.358	0.400	-0.158	-0.200
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	0.000	1.536	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.485	0.000	-0.285	0.200
predicted_SO	1.143	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.464	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.228	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.552	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.482	0.053
predicted_H	0.727	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.073	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.356	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.316	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.205 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2222	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.3056	0.1944	0.0278	0.0833	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	28	-	97.000	27.000	8.000	4.000	13.000	12.000	12.000	32.000	0.2784	0.3578	0.4845	0.2783	0.0412	0.1340	0.1237	0.3299

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6220
predicted_AVG	0.2088
predicted_BB	0.5240
predicted_H	0.7560
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.3101
predicted_R	0.2990
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.3239
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1830	0.2284	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4640	3.6220	3.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2088	0.2089	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.5240	0.4821	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7560	0.7269	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0760	0.0734	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3101	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2990	0.3564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3280	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3239	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.1210	1.1307	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-RF
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 41

All-history rows before 20260510: 41

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2215

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.195	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.195	0.000	-0.195	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	1.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.634	3.000	-2.634	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.333	-0.221	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.732	2.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.732	2.000	1.268	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.049	0.000	-0.049	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.805	1.000	-0.805	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.146	0.000	-0.146	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.800	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.600	0.448	0.200
predicted_R	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.610	1.000	0.390	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.366	0.000	-0.366	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.333	-0.396	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.610	1.000	-0.610	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.195	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.236	-
predicted_BB	0.732	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.610	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.610	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.563	-0.117
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.844	0.112
predicted_H	0.842	-0.028
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.000
predicted_R	0.697	0.087
predicted_RBI	0.300	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.710	0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-3.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	2.000	2.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 41

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4545	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.3750	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	9.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3778	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.2222
season	0.20	41	-	149.000	33.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	25.000	30.000	25.000	0.2215	0.3520	0.3960	0.2215	0.0403	0.1007	0.2013	0.1678

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1140
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.2361
predicted_BB	0.9220
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3928
predicted_R	0.7580
predicted_RBI	0.2930
predicted_SLG	0.3044
predicted_SO	0.7800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1950	0.1140	0.1473	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.4810	3.5627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2360	0.2361	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7320	0.9220	0.8440	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.8220	0.8417	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3928	0.3929	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6100	0.7580	0.6972	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2930	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6100	0.7800	0.7102	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	41
Season rows before report date	41
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	41
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	1
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	2
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Patrick Bailey (672275) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 0

All-history rows before 20260510: 0

System season_avg: 0.1460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.1460

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.037	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.185	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.815	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.037	-
predicted_AVG	0.168	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	-
predicted_R	0.185	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.815	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.021	0.021
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.080	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.168	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.039
predicted_H	0.490	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.187	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.988	0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.159 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.1379	0.1935	0.2414	0.1379	0.0345	0.1379	0.0690	0.3793
season	0.20	27	-	82.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	22.000	0.1463	0.2045	0.1829	0.1463	0.0122	0.0610	0.0732	0.2683

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1160
predicted_AVG	0.1681
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_H	0.5240
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2070
predicted_R	0.1880
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2391
predicted_SO	1.1340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0380	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0370	3.1160	3.0799	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1680	0.1681	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.1500	0.1829	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5240	0.4902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2070	0.2070	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1850	0.1880	0.1866	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2400	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2391	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8150	1.1340	0.9881	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.146

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	5.000	0.152	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.291	0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	0.000	-1.121	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.000	-0.172	0.200
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.697	0.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SO	0.485	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.485	1.000	0.515	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.303	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.537	-
predicted_SO	0.485	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	0.041
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.971	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000
predicted_BB	0.425	-0.090
predicted_H	1.285	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.152	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.623	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.537	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.533	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.324 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.5238	0.2857	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	17.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.4359	0.5000	0.6410	0.4359	0.0256	0.1795	0.1282	0.1026
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	37.000	10.000	1.000	6.000	23.000	15.000	17.000	16.000	0.2913	0.3724	0.5276	0.2913	0.0472	0.1811	0.1339	0.1260

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3740
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.9860
predicted_AVG	0.3233
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	1.2890
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3780
predicted_R	0.3270
predicted_RBI	0.6250
predicted_SLG	0.5367
predicted_SO	0.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3030	0.3740	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0080	0.0173	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	3.9860	3.9708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3233	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.3590	0.4249	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.2890	1.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1540	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3780	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3270	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6250	0.6229	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5370	0.5367	0.5368	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4850	0.5680	0.5329	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CLE
teamID	8

Brayan Rocchio (677587) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	4.000	0.692	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.256	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.342	0.200	-0.342	-0.200
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.487	0.000	-0.487	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.359	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	0.359	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.425	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.413	0.054
predicted_H	0.693	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.124	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.357	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.201	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	0.449	0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.1765	0.3333	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.2500	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.0833
season	0.20	39	-	129.000	33.000	4.000	3.000	19.000	15.000	14.000	14.000	0.2558	0.3425	0.3566	0.2558	0.0233	0.1473	0.1085	0.1085

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5110
predicted_AVG	0.2146
predicted_BB	0.4530
predicted_H	0.7540
predicted_HBP	0.1240
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3256
predicted_R	0.3360
predicted_RBI	0.2170
predicted_SLG	0.2653
predicted_SO	0.5140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1030	0.0750	0.0868	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.5110	3.4253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2146	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3590	0.4530	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7540	0.6932	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1240	0.1240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3256	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3360	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2170	0.2014	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2653	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3590	0.5140	0.4486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	677587
playerID	677587
playerName	Brayan Rocchio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.1780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1782

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.607	3.000	1.393	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.178	0.333	-0.178	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_R	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	1.000	-0.321	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.333	-0.228	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	1.000	-0.286	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.607	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.214	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	0.043
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.738	0.131
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.272	-0.014
predicted_H	0.815	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.335	0.121
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000
predicted_SO	1.098	-0.188

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.1842	0.2381	0.2105	0.1842	0.0000	0.1579	0.0790	0.2632
season	0.20	28	-	101.000	18.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	6.000	8.000	36.000	0.1782	0.2500	0.2277	0.1782	0.0099	0.0891	0.0792	0.3564

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2195
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2714
predicted_R	0.4300
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.2844
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.1470	0.1136	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6070	3.8410	3.7382	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2195	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2610	0.2720	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8430	0.8153	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2714	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2140	0.4300	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5280	0.5113	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2844	0.2842	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	0.9500	1.0976	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.178

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Gavin Williams (668909) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.250	5.000	-1.250	-4.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.050	6.000	-1.850	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.500	7.000	-6.500	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.200	14.000	28.000	7.000	35.000	6.000	3.9789	1.1053	0.4421	0.8842	0.2210	1.1053	0.1895
last_10	0.35	8	49.100	18.000	33.000	21.000	60.000	8.000	3.2838	1.0946	0.3649	0.6689	0.4257	1.2162	0.1622
season	0.20	8	49.100	18.000	33.000	21.000	60.000	8.000	3.2838	1.0946	0.3649	0.6689	0.4257	1.2162	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8220
predicted_ER	2.4560
predicted_ERA	3.9279
predicted_H	4.8620
predicted_HR	0.9050
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	6.0260
predicted_WHIP	1.1878

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8220	0.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.4560	1.7098	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9279	3.9279	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.8620	4.9327	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9050	0.4412	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.2000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	6.0260	3.4502	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1878	1.1878	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.28
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	68
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	668909
playerID	668909
playerName	Gavin Williams
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	1.000	0.611	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	1.094	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	9.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	1.6875	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	11.000	1.000	14.000	0.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	1.0645	0.0968	1.3548	0.0000
season	0.20	18	18.100	7.000	19.000	4.000	24.000	1.000	3.4364	1.2545	0.3818	1.0364	0.2182	1.3091	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_ER	0.6490
predicted_ERA	3.2965
predicted_H	1.6490
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	2.1000
predicted_WHIP	1.1859

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4510	0.7773	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6490	0.8576	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2965	3.2965	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6490	1.2632	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1400	0.6512	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.1000	1.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1859	1.1859	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.44
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.647	2.000	-0.647	-2.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.865	0.200	1.135	1.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	2.000	0.882	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	5.4000	1.2000	0.6000	0.8000	0.4000	1.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	3.7241	0.9310	0.4138	0.6207	0.3103	1.1379	0.2069
season	0.20	17	18.200	11.000	18.000	4.000	19.000	4.000	5.3036	1.1786	0.5893	0.9643	0.2143	1.0179	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5690
predicted_ER	0.7790
predicted_ERA	4.4531
predicted_H	1.3670
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5720
predicted_WHIP	1.2299

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5690	0.8244	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7790	0.3174	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4531	4.4531	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3670	0.5570	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3140	0.1279	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.2000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5720	1.8256	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2299	1.2299	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.30
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 20

All-history rows before 20260510: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.680	1.000	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.450	2.000	-0.450	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500	2.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	2.000	3.000	4.000	15.000	0.000	2.1600	0.8400	0.2400	0.3600	0.4800	1.8000	0.0000
season	0.20	20	17.100	4.000	7.000	7.000	29.000	1.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.4038	0.4038	1.6731	0.0577

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_ER	0.2940
predicted_ERA	2.9647
predicted_H	0.5720
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.1840
predicted_WHIP	1.0163

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3340	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2940	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9647	2.9647	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5720	0.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0720	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1840	1.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0163	1.0163	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Tim Herrin (682120) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.607	1.000	-0.407	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	7.000	5.000	2.000	1.4400	0.8400	0.6000	0.2400
season	0.20	15	11.200	10.000	7.000	5.000	1.4571	0.8571	0.6000	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_ER	0.2280
predicted_ERA	2.8696
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5270
predicted_WHIP	1.3569

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3230	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2280	0.0824	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8696	2.8696	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6460	0.2334	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0630	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.5270	1.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3569	1.3569	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_MIN@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	682120
playerID	682120
playerName	Tim Herrin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

20260510_NYM@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.4392499999999999, "away_win_probability": 0.5607500000000001, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYM 4 - 3 ARI", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: NYM

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.536	4.000	-0.536	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.111	0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.129	0.400
predicted_R	0.393	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.393	0.000	0.607	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.000	-0.091	0.333
predicted_SO	0.929	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.929	2.000	-0.929	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.536	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	0.393	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.929	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.699	0.163
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.003
predicted_H	0.730	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.250	-0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.693	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	-0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.054

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1500	0.1905	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.5263	0.2105	0.0790	0.2368	0.0790	0.2895
season	0.20	28	-	99.000	22.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	11.000	7.000	26.000	0.2222	0.2710	0.4242	0.2222	0.0505	0.1616	0.0707	0.2626

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2200
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8290
predicted_AVG	0.1987
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.7610
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2070
predicted_OBP	0.2498
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.7190
predicted_SLG	0.4200
predicted_SO	0.9180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2200	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5360	3.8290	3.6993	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1987	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2550	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7610	0.7296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2070	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2498	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3930	0.3810	0.3863	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7190	0.6929	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4200	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9290	0.9180	0.9229	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Slater (596103) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

System season_avg: 0.3200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.6667

Diff (system - data): -0.3467

System opponent_avg: 0.2240

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by -0.3467. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.667	0.667	-0.267	-0.267
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.667	0.667	-0.267	-0.267
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.600	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.833	0.667	-0.233	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.889	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.028
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.047	0.247
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.233	0.011
predicted_H	0.933	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.219	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.411	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.876	-0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.4000	0.4375	0.4667	0.4000	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	9	-	25.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.3200	0.3571	0.3600	0.3200	0.0400	0.0800	0.3200
season	0.20	9	-	25.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.3200	0.3571	0.3600	0.3200	0.0400	0.0800	0.3200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1750
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3730
predicted_AVG	0.3051
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	1.0290
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3551
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.4108
predicted_SO	0.8600

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1750	0.1386	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.3730	3.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3051	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2480	0.2332	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0290	0.9329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3551	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4360	0.3774	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2440	0.2190	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4108	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	0.8600	0.8765	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	596103
playerID	596103
playerName	Austin Slater
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luis Torrens (620443) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

System season_avg: 0.1350

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1351

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.083	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.083	4.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.667	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.135	0.000	0.532	0.667
predicted_BB	0.083	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.750	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.179	0.000	0.571	0.750
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.189	0.000	0.477	0.667
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	-0.667	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.083	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.265	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.011
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.229	0.146
predicted_AVG	0.164	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	0.055
predicted_H	0.489	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.101	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.234	-0.000
predicted_R	0.321	0.071
predicted_RBI	0.349	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	0.743	0.076

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.23), rates preserved: AVG=0.151 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.0667	0.1765	0.1333	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.1875	0.1250	0.0938	0.0312	0.1875
season	0.20	12	-	37.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	8.000	0.1351	0.1795	0.1892	0.1351	0.0811	0.0270	0.2162

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3970
predicted_AVG	0.1636
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	0.5560
predicted_HBP	0.1010
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2335
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.2649
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1900	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0060	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0830	3.3970	3.2294	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1636	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0830	0.2000	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5560	0.4888	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1010	0.1010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2335	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4020	0.3209	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3940	0.3492	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2650	0.2649	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.8290	0.7425	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.135

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	620443
playerID	620443
playerName	Luis Torrens
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYM
teamID	18

Andy Ibáñez (628451) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.1430

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

System season_avg diverges from 2026 season-to-date by 0.1430. This usually means mixed-season window logic.

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	1.500	1.000	3.500	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.400	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.360	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.400	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_R	0.179	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.400	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.400	0.400
predicted_SO	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.360	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.207	-
predicted_R	0.179	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	0.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	0.037
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.758	0.258
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.059	0.059
predicted_H	0.424	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.207	0.000
predicted_R	0.218	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.062
predicted_SLG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.327	0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.154 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	10.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	6	-	14.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.0714
season	0.20	6	-	14.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.1570
predicted_H	0.5320
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.2069
predicted_R	0.2820
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.2655
predicted_SO	0.5740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0990	0.0371	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.1900	2.7584	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1669	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1570	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3600	0.5320	0.4244	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0564	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2070	0.2069	0.2070	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1790	0.2820	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4950	0.3918	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2655	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1790	0.5740	0.3269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	628451
playerID	628451
playerName	Andy Ibáñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 23

All-history rows before 20260510: 23

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2644

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1580

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_3B	0.043	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.783	3.000	0.217	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.014	0.250
predicted_BB	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.609	1.000	0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.363	0.250	0.037	0.150
predicted_R	0.435	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	-0.221	0.250
predicted_SO	0.696	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.696	0.000	-0.696	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-
predicted_3B	0.043	-
predicted_AB	4.020	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.609	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.278	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	0.696	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.144	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.079	0.036
predicted_AB	3.858	-0.162
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.511	-0.098
predicted_H	0.768	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.184	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.278	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.411	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 4.020

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1111	0.1905	0.3889	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	0.2368	0.3182	0.5000	0.2368	0.0526	0.0790	0.1316	0.2105
season	0.20	23	-	87.000	23.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	10.000	14.000	16.000	0.2644	0.3627	0.4713	0.2644	0.0460	0.1149	0.1609	0.1839

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1200
predicted_3B	0.1080
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.1993
predicted_BB	0.4330
predicted_H	0.7430
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_OBP	0.2781
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.3960
predicted_SLG	0.4335
predicted_SO	0.7250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1740	0.1200	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0430	0.1080	0.0790	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0200	3.7280	3.8582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1993	0.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6090	0.4330	0.5115	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.7430	0.7684	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1790	0.1839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2780	0.2781	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.4800	0.4599	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3960	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4335	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6960	0.7250	0.7121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2056

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.161	0.000	-0.161
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.452	4.000	0.548
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206
predicted_BB	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	0.000	-0.355
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.710	0.000	-0.710
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.000	-0.280
predicted_R	0.452	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	-0.452
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	0.000	-0.355
predicted_SLG	0.505	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.336	0.000	-0.336
predicted_SO	0.839	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.839	2.000	1.161

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.452	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.505	-
predicted_SO	0.839	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	0.120
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.464	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	0.098
predicted_H	0.895	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.366	-0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.148
predicted_RBI	0.682	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.505	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.828	-0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4500	0.6875	0.3125	0.0625	0.3125	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.4444	0.2778	0.0278	0.1944	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	31	-	107.000	22.000	5.000	3.000	11.000	14.000	11.000	26.000	0.2056	0.2797	0.3364	0.2056	0.0280	0.1028	0.1028	0.2430

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3740
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4740
predicted_AVG	0.2721
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3659
predicted_R	0.7150
predicted_RBI	0.7230
predicted_SLG	0.5048
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1610	0.3740	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4520	3.4740	3.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2721	0.2721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.5290	0.4532	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9450	0.8949	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3659	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.7150	0.6004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7230	0.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5050	0.5048	0.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8390	0.8200	0.8283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2449

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.882	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.882	3.000	2.118	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.333	-0.245	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.333	-0.275	-0.333
predicted_R	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.667	-0.347	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.412	3.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.412	0.000	2.588	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.059	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.021
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.129	0.247
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.156	0.038
predicted_H	0.688	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.126	0.067
predicted_RBI	0.344	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.000
predicted_SO	0.494	0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.13), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2727	0.3750	0.2500	0.0312	0.0938	0.0312	0.1562
season	0.20	17	-	49.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.2449	0.2745	0.3469	0.2449	0.0204	0.1020	0.0408	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3830
predicted_AVG	0.2299
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.7780
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2750
predicted_R	0.1950
predicted_RBI	0.3900
predicted_SLG	0.3441
predicted_SO	0.5790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1600	0.1387	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8820	3.3830	3.1292	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1950	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.7780	0.6878	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0590	0.1950	0.1261	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3900	0.3444	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3441	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4120	0.5790	0.4944	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2302

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2400

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.564	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.564	3.000	0.436	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.293	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.333	0.520	0.417
predicted_BB	0.256	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	0.000	0.744	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.821	1.000	2.179	2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.800	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.285	0.333	0.515	0.467
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.333	0.683	0.667
predicted_SO	0.769	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.564	-
predicted_AVG	0.293	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	0.004
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.557	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	0.026
predicted_H	1.023	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.133	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.349	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	0.211
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.453	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=25.0, weight=0.182, BvP AVG=0.240)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.3889	0.2778	0.0278	0.1111	0.0556	0.1944
season	0.20	39	-	139.000	32.000	6.000	2.000	13.000	13.000	10.000	30.000	0.2302	0.2848	0.3165	0.2302	0.0144	0.0935	0.0719	0.2158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5520
predicted_AVG	0.2927
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	1.0400
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.3487
predicted_R	0.6970
predicted_RBI	0.4010
predicted_SLG	0.4530
predicted_SO	0.6970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1610	0.1581	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5640	3.5520	3.5570	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2930	0.2927	0.2928	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.3010	0.2821	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0400	1.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1350	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3487	0.3488	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.6970	0.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4010	0.3964	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4530	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.6970	0.7272	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.128	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.170	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.077	3.000	-0.077	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.256	1.000	0.744	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.923	0.000	-0.923	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.250	-0.069	-0.050
predicted_R	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.208	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.769	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	0.000	2.231	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.170	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.256	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.410	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.208	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.082	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.033	-0.137
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.044
predicted_H	0.698	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	-0.106
predicted_RBI	0.283	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.567	-0.203

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, weight=0.100, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.170

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.1951	0.2500	0.1951	0.1951	0.0000	0.0488	0.0732	0.0732
season	0.20	39	-	159.000	36.000	5.000	2.000	16.000	16.000	10.000	30.000	0.2264	0.2690	0.2956	0.2264	0.0126	0.1006	0.0629	0.1887

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9370
predicted_AVG	0.1735
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.6830
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2390
predicted_R	0.2300
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.2079
predicted_SO	0.4240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1280	0.0490	0.0816	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1700	3.9370	4.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1735	0.1733	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2560	0.3310	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.6830	0.6983	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0270	0.0282	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2390	0.2390	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4100	0.2300	0.3044	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2780	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2080	0.2079	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.4240	0.5665	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	1.000	2.812	2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.856	1.000	3.244	3.100
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	3.125	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	2.8421	0.9474	0.3158	0.4737	0.4737	0.6316	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.0833	0.2500	0.6667	0.4167	0.9167	0.0833
season	0.20	16	17.200	3.000	12.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	1.5283	0.9623	0.1698	0.6793	0.2830	0.7924	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2180
predicted_ER	1.1750
predicted_ERA	3.4461
predicted_H	2.4340
predicted_HR	0.2830
predicted_IP	3.0000
predicted_SO	2.6960
predicted_WHIP	1.1902

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2180	1.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.1750	2.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4461	3.4461	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	2.4340	5.1655	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2830	0.1137	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	3.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.6960	3.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1902	1.1902	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	102

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.394	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5625	0.0000	0.3750	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.6429	0.4286	1.0714	0.1071
season	0.20	16	15.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	18.000	1.000	1.2000	0.8667	0.1333	0.5333	0.3333	1.2000	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.4680
predicted_ERA	2.9732
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4900
predicted_WHIP	1.1295

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.1927	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4680	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9732	2.9732	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1010	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0543	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4900	1.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1295	1.1295	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.767	1.000	0.333	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	6.000	11.000	1.000	16.000	1.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	1.2692	0.1154	1.8461	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.200	6.000	14.000	3.000	21.000	1.000	4.2632	1.3421	0.4737	1.1053	0.2368	1.6579	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.5170
predicted_ERA	3.8094
predicted_H	1.0760
predicted_HR	0.1280
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4160
predicted_WHIP	1.1658

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3480	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5170	0.1908	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8094	3.8094	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0760	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1280	0.0472	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4160	1.1535	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1658	1.1658	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.68
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tobias Myers (668964) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.817	1.000	-0.717	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	4.000	10.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	0.8077	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	19.100	8.000	19.000	4.000	14.000	3.000	3.7241	1.1897	0.4138	0.9828	0.2069	0.7241	0.1552
season	0.20	12	23.200	9.000	20.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	3.4225	1.0141	0.3803	0.8451	0.1690	0.7606	0.1690

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4750
predicted_ER	0.7100
predicted_ERA	4.0339
predicted_H	1.5600
predicted_HR	0.2520
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3730
predicted_WHIP	1.2850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4750	0.2053	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7100	0.3069	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0339	4.0339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5600	0.6744	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2520	0.1089	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3730	2.2967	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2850	1.2850	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	668964
playerID	668964
playerName	Tobias Myers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Craig Kimbrel (518886) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.700	0.000	-0.700
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.840	1.000	0.160
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-0.200

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	7.2000	1.8000	0.8000	1.0000	0.8000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.0714	0.6429	1.2857	0.1071
season	0.20	10	9.100	7.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	6.7500	1.7143	0.7500	1.0714	0.6429	1.2857	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_ER	0.5510
predicted_ERA	4.9586
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0960
predicted_WHIP	1.4435

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4780	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5510	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9586	4.9586	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9660	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0468	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0960	1.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4435	1.4435	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	518886
playerID	518886
playerName	Craig Kimbrel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.919	1.000	-0.719	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.9375	0.3750	1.6875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	6.000	10.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	0.9375	0.3750	1.2188	0.1875
season	0.20	16	16.100	8.000	13.000	6.000	16.000	2.000	4.4082	1.1633	0.4898	0.7959	0.3674	0.9796	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_ER	0.3710
predicted_ERA	4.1892
predicted_H	0.7410
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.8980
predicted_WHIP	1.3084

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3030	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3710	0.1461	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1892	4.1892	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7410	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1170	0.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8980	0.9598	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3084	1.3084	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: ARI

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2656

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_AB	3.630	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.250	-0.016	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	-0.110	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.250	-0.258	0.000
predicted_SO	1.028	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.028	0.000	0.972	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.111	-
predicted_AB	3.630	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	1.028	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.059	-0.052
predicted_AB	3.661	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.364	-0.136
predicted_H	0.869	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.120	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.594	-0.045
predicted_RBI	0.406	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.448	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	-0.237

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2222	0.2857	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.2368	0.2857	0.4474	0.2368	0.0526	0.0790	0.0526	0.2105
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	34.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	20.000	23.000	18.000	37.000	0.2656	0.3600	0.5078	0.2656	0.0391	0.1562	0.1406	0.2891

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0220
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2375
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.1200
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.3016
predicted_R	0.5620
predicted_RBI	0.4110
predicted_SLG	0.4479
predicted_SO	0.6190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2010	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1110	0.0220	0.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6300	3.6840	3.6613	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2375	0.2373	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.2660	0.3644	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8750	0.8687	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1200	0.1200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1770	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3016	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.5620	0.5944	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4110	0.4064	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4479	0.4479	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0280	0.6190	0.7910	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2750

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.3920

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.333	-0.275	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.328	-0.500
predicted_R	0.514	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.450	0.333	-0.450	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.743	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.743	0.000	-0.743	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.257	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.514	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	0.743	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	0.037
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.292	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	0.124
predicted_H	0.815	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.371	-0.000
predicted_R	0.514	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.480	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.718	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.2414	0.3714	0.4828	0.2414	0.0690	0.1379	0.1724	0.2414
season	0.20	35	-	120.000	33.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	18.000	9.000	26.000	0.2750	0.3282	0.4500	0.2750	0.0500	0.1500	0.0750	0.2167

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.1900
predicted_AVG	0.2568
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.8190
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3706
predicted_R	0.5140
predicted_RBI	0.3560
predicted_SLG	0.4799
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.1500	0.1226	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.1900	3.2925	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2568	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2570	0.4740	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8190	0.8151	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1860	0.1834	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3706	0.3708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5140	0.5140	0.5140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3560	0.3534	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4799	0.4799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7430	0.6990	0.7179	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

System season_avg: 0.1920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1918

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.842	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.842	3.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.058	0.250
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.221	0.000	0.029	0.250
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	0.316	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.315	0.000	-0.065	0.250
predicted_SO	1.263	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.263	1.000	0.737	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.220	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	1.263	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.124	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.727	-0.115
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.153	-0.005
predicted_H	0.696	-0.014
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.076	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.220	0.000
predicted_R	0.268	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.566	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.227	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.842

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.1765	0.0000	0.1765	0.0000	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	0.1389	0.1795	0.2500	0.1389	0.0278	0.1389	0.0556	0.4167
season	0.20	19	-	73.000	14.000	3.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	3.000	24.000	0.1918	0.2208	0.3151	0.1918	0.0274	0.1781	0.0411	0.3288

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.1885
predicted_BB	0.1490
predicted_H	0.6840
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.2202
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.5540
predicted_SLG	0.2767
predicted_SO	1.1950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0950	0.1245	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8420	3.6260	3.7272	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1885	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1490	0.1532	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.6840	0.6962	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0720	0.0757	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2200	0.2202	0.2201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.2260	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.5540	0.5662	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2767	0.2768	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2630	1.1950	1.2269	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.192

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	1.000	-0.118	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.440	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.176	4.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.250	0.039	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	0.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.193	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.250	-0.008	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.500	-0.109	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.853	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	0.000	-0.853	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.440	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.193	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	0.853	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	0.021
predicted_3B	0.075	0.046
predicted_AB	4.304	-0.136
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.081
predicted_H	0.727	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.078	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.193	-0.000
predicted_R	0.476	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.420	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.440

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.1364	0.1364	0.2727	0.1364	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.1429	0.1628	0.2857	0.1429	0.0238	0.0952	0.0238	0.2143
season	0.20	34	-	142.000	30.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	19.000	9.000	29.000	0.2113	0.2583	0.3592	0.2113	0.0352	0.0916	0.0634	0.2042

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	4.2050
predicted_AVG	0.1688
predicted_BB	0.1260
predicted_H	0.7100
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_OBP	0.1927
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.3115
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1540	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1090	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.4400	4.2050	4.3037	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1688	0.1689	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.1260	0.1844	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7100	0.7268	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0760	0.0777	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1930	0.1927	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.4160	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4120	0.4196	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3115	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8530	0.8500	0.8513	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jorge Barrosa (678489) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	3.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.124	0.333
predicted_BB	0.167	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.722	0.000	0.278	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.242	0.500
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.333	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	0.280	0.667
predicted_SO	1.167	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.500	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.333	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.435	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.033	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.502	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.195	0.028
predicted_H	0.625	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.272	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.333	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.063	-0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.178 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.2353	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2000	0.2632	0.3429	0.2000	0.0571	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.20	18	-	62.000	13.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	21.000	0.2097	0.2576	0.3871	0.2097	0.0806	0.0484	0.3387

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3750
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.5550
predicted_AVG	0.1900
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0360
predicted_OBP	0.2462
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3326
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.5000	0.3750	0.4353	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0120	0.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.5550	3.5015	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.2210	0.1950	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6760	0.6249	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0360	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2462	0.2461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5000	0.4730	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2920	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	0.9670	1.0634	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	678489
playerID	678489
playerName	Jorge Barrosa
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.3360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3361

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	4.103	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.103	4.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.336	0.250	-0.086	0.000
predicted_BB	0.103	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.379	1.000	-0.379	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	-0.102	0.000
predicted_R	0.655	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.655	0.000	-0.655	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.724	2.000	-0.724	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.555	0.250	-0.305	0.000
predicted_SO	0.448	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	4.103	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.103	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.655	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.448	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.020	-0.014
predicted_AB	4.105	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.104	0.001
predicted_H	1.043	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	-0.236
predicted_RBI	0.531	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.520	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 4.103

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3095	0.3256	0.3333	0.3095	0.0000	0.0952	0.0238	0.0952
season	0.20	29	-	119.000	40.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	21.000	19.000	3.000	13.000	0.3361	0.3525	0.5546	0.3361	0.0504	0.1765	0.0252	0.1092

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2581
predicted_BB	0.1050
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.5400
predicted_SLG	0.3470
predicted_SO	0.5760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1700	0.1860	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0090	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1030	4.1060	4.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2581	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1030	0.1050	0.1041	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0600	1.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0590	0.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6550	0.2380	0.4187	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5400	0.5313	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3470	0.3470	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4480	0.5760	0.5205	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.336

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ryan Waldschmidt (814439) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2452

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.333	0.333
predicted_SO	3.000	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	3.000	3.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	3.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.194	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.632	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.117	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	2.495	-0.505

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	3.000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	3.000	1.0000
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	3.000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2229
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3608
predicted_SO	1.1010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.8310	0.6321	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.1090	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4420	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4250	0.3259	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3608	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1010	2.4950	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF-LF
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	814439
playerID	814439
playerName	Ryan Waldschmidt
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.086	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.657	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.657	1.000	-0.657	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.771	1.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.500	-0.097	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.333	-0.120	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.086	-
predicted_AB	3.440	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.657	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.286	-
predicted_SO	0.543	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.025
predicted_3B	0.046	-0.040
predicted_AB	3.474	0.034
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.740	0.083
predicted_H	0.604	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.059	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.468	0.039
predicted_RBI	0.424	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.286	0.000
predicted_SO	0.638	0.095

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.174 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.1176	0.3182	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	0.1714	0.3409	0.3143	0.1714	0.0286	0.1429	0.2571	0.1714
season	0.20	35	-	119.000	27.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	23.000	19.000	0.2269	0.3472	0.3697	0.2269	0.0168	0.0924	0.1933	0.1597

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.4980
predicted_AVG	0.1733
predicted_BB	0.8010
predicted_H	0.6060
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3276
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.4270
predicted_SLG	0.2864
predicted_SO	0.7080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1870	0.1684	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0860	0.0170	0.0462	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4400	3.4980	3.4735	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1733	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6570	0.8010	0.7401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6060	0.6035	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0580	0.0588	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3276	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4970	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4270	0.4240	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2860	0.2864	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5430	0.7080	0.6382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_NYM@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

James McCann (543510) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2414

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2410

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	0.000	1.100	4.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.241	-	-0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.700	0.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	-	-0.267	-
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	-	-0.310	-
predicted_SO	1.222	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.100	0.000	1.900	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-0.011
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.400	0.178
predicted_AVG	0.272	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.133	0.022
predicted_H	0.831	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.377	0.044
predicted_RBI	0.338	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.171	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.3889	0.3333	0.1111	0.0000	0.3889
last_10	0.35	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793
season	0.20	9	-	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	11.000	0.2414	0.2667	0.3103	0.2414	0.0690	0.0345	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6280
predicted_AVG	0.2716
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_H	0.9860
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.4330
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.3778
predicted_SO	1.1070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1960	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.6280	3.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2716	0.2718	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.1610	0.1329	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9860	0.8311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0580	0.0479	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3073	0.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4330	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4000	0.3383	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3778	0.3779	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.1070	1.1715	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	22.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260421_CHW@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	543510
playerID	543510
playerName	James McCann
pos	C
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Eduardo Rodriguez (593958) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.571	0.000	-1.571	0.000
predicted_IP	2.200	2.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.600	7.000	-3.400	-4.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.143	7.000	-0.143	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 2.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.200	11.000	24.000	16.000	21.000	4.000	3.5783	1.4458	0.3976	0.8675	0.5783	0.7590	0.1446
last_10	0.35	7	39.200	11.000	32.000	19.000	29.000	4.000	2.4958	1.2857	0.2773	0.8067	0.4790	0.7311	0.1008
season	0.20	7	39.200	11.000	32.000	19.000	29.000	4.000	2.4958	1.2857	0.2773	0.8067	0.4790	0.7311	0.1008

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1360
predicted_ER	1.8100
predicted_ERA	3.6876
predicted_H	3.9300
predicted_HR	0.5830
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.7040
predicted_WHIP	1.3734

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.1360	2.5905	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.8100	0.8578	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6876	3.6876	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.9300	3.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5830	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.2000	4.1000	3.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.7040	3.8597	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3734	1.3734	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.2
H	3
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	4
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.50
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	593958
playerID	593958
playerName	Eduardo Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	2.000	2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100
last_10	0.35	1	0.100
season	0.20	1	0.100

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8740
predicted_ER	1.0630
predicted_ERA	4.1451
predicted_H	2.1430
predicted_HR	0.2930
predicted_IP	2.1000
predicted_SO	2.1840
predicted_WHIP	1.3078

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8740	0.2037	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0630	0.2477	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1451	4.1451	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.1430	0.4994	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2930	0.0683	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	2.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.1840	1.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3078	1.3078	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.200	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6060
predicted_ER	0.7990
predicted_ERA	4.3835
predicted_H	1.6110
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5140
predicted_WHIP	1.3509

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.6060	1.6604	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7990	0.9510	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3835	4.3835	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6110	0.3925	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2030	0.0495	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5140	1.8816	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3509	1.3509	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.200	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_ER	0.5020
predicted_ERA	4.6100
predicted_H	0.9370
predicted_HR	0.1550
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.3919

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4260	0.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5020	0.8736	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6100	4.6100	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9370	1.7303	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1550	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9180	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3919	1.3919	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Taylor Clarke (664199) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
last_10	0.35	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
season	0.20	1	0.100	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_ER	0.6120
predicted_ERA	5.5599
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HR	0.1650
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9390
predicted_WHIP	1.4257

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3760	0.0876	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6120	1.6765	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5599	5.5599	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	1.0380	4.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1650	0.0385	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9390	1.7528	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4257	1.4257	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	33

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	108.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664199
playerID	664199
playerName	Taylor Clarke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.950	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.100	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	3.8436
predicted_H	0.3750
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.2490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1470	0.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8436	3.8436	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3750	0.8354	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0129	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.3980	0.8415	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2490	1.2490	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Michael Soroka (647336) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.667	8.000	-1.667	-7.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.033	3.000	-4.033	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	2.000	-6.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.200	16.000	31.000	8.000	26.000	3.000	5.6104	1.5195	0.6234	1.2078	0.3117	1.0130	0.1169
last_10	0.35	6	30.200	16.000	35.000	9.000	36.000	3.000	4.6957	1.4348	0.5217	1.1413	0.2935	1.1739	0.0978
season	0.20	6	30.200	16.000	35.000	9.000	36.000	3.000	4.6957	1.4348	0.5217	1.1413	0.2935	1.1739	0.0978

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0920
predicted_ER	1.7330
predicted_ERA	4.9023
predicted_H	3.4420
predicted_HR	0.3850
predicted_IP	3.1000
predicted_SO	3.1830
predicted_WHIP	1.4249

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0920	0.5001	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7330	1.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9023	4.9023	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.4420	2.1184	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3850	0.1763	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	3.1000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	3.1830	1.4577	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4249	1.4249	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	8
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	10
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	79
Pitching_R	8
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	647336
playerID	647336
playerName	Michael Soroka
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260510_NYY@MIL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 MIL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 MIL", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYY 5 - 4 MIL", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "NYY 4 - 3 MIL", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: NYY

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2657

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.590	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.575	2.000	-0.575	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.068	0.333
predicted_BB	0.775	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.775	3.000	0.225	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.950	0.000	0.050	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.403	0.600	0.097	-0.100
predicted_R	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.850	0.000	0.150	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.725	0.000	-0.725	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.622	0.000	-0.289	0.333
predicted_SO	1.275	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.275	2.000	-0.275	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.590	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.775	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.850	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.501	-
predicted_SO	1.275	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.005
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.611	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.781	0.006
predicted_H	0.903	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.728	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.615	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.501	0.000
predicted_SO	1.418	0.143

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111	0.2222	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	9.000	10.000	16.000	0.2778	0.4348	0.5556	0.2778	0.0833	0.2500	0.2778	0.4444
season	0.20	40	-	143.000	38.000	6.000	15.000	29.000	34.000	31.000	51.000	0.2657	0.4034	0.6224	0.2657	0.1049	0.2028	0.2168	0.3566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2496
predicted_BB	0.7850
predicted_H	0.9050
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_OBP	0.3834
predicted_R	0.6420
predicted_RBI	0.6180
predicted_SLG	0.5011
predicted_SO	1.5180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1590	0.1553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5900	3.6250	3.6106	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2496	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7750	0.7850	0.7809	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9050	0.9029	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3834	0.3832	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8500	0.6420	0.7276	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6180	0.6147	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5010	0.5011	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2750	1.5180	1.4180	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Spencer Jones (682987) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.500	3.000	1.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.167	0.000	0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_SO	2.000	1.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.204	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	0.042
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.823	0.323
predicted_AVG	0.204	0.000
predicted_BB	0.454	-0.046
predicted_H	0.527	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.000
predicted_R	0.116	0.116
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.746	-0.254

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	2	-	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.8000
season	0.20	2	-	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.8000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1420
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2044
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.7320
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.2835
predicted_R	0.3900
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.3307
predicted_SO	1.1490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1420	0.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0110	0.0033	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.5840	2.8230	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2040	0.2044	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3440	0.4535	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.7320	0.5270	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0960	0.0707	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2835	0.2831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3900	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.3740	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3307	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1490	1.7465	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	682987
playerID	682987
playerName	Spencer Jones
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

J.C. Escarra (641555) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.333	0.028	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.500	-0.013	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.333	-0.111	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.900	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	2.100	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.100	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.069	-0.032
predicted_AB	3.671	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.218	0.018
predicted_H	0.834	0.074
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.419	0.019
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.877	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3684	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3611	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2500
season	0.20	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.3611	0.2222	0.1667	0.0556	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2790
predicted_3B	0.0320
predicted_AB	3.7520
predicted_AVG	0.2453
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.9200
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2941
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.4840
predicted_SLG	0.3792
predicted_SO	0.8500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2790	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1000	0.0320	0.0685	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7520	3.6705	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2453	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2380	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9200	0.8342	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0460	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2941	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4420	0.4195	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4840	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3792	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8500	0.8768	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_TEX@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641555
playerID	641555
playerName	J.C. Escarra
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2086

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.757	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.757	3.000	0.243	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.333	-0.209	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	1.000	-0.432	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	1.000	-0.784	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	-0.293	-0.500
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.333	-0.331	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.162	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.162	2.000	-0.162	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.757	-
predicted_AVG	0.191	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.320	-
predicted_SO	1.162	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.744	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.191	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.051
predicted_H	0.700	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.000
predicted_R	0.396	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.295	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.157	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.1579	0.2000	0.3158	0.1579	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.1944	0.2857	0.2778	0.1944	0.0278	0.0833	0.1389	0.2778
season	0.20	37	-	139.000	29.000	5.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	16.000	43.000	0.2086	0.2930	0.3309	0.2086	0.0288	0.0935	0.1151	0.3094

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7340
predicted_AVG	0.1911
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_H	0.7140
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2580
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.2990
predicted_SLG	0.3202
predicted_SO	1.1530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.0510	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7570	3.7340	3.7436	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1910	0.1911	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3440	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7140	0.6998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.3510	0.3961	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2990	0.2952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3200	0.3202	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1620	1.1530	1.1568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

José Caballero (676609) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2595

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.447	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.447	3.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.010	0.250
predicted_BB	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.184	1.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	0.000	0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_R	0.447	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.447	0.000	0.553	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.342	0.000	-0.342	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.000	-0.147	0.250
predicted_SO	0.763	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	1.000	1.237	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.447	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.184	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.447	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.346	-0.101
predicted_AVG	0.248	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	0.080
predicted_H	0.798	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.132	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.645	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.1333
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2188	0.3056	0.3438	0.2188	0.0312	0.0625	0.0938	0.1562
season	0.20	38	-	131.000	34.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	17.000	7.000	29.000	0.2595	0.3169	0.3969	0.2595	0.0305	0.0992	0.0534	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.2710
predicted_AVG	0.2479
predicted_BB	0.3220
predicted_H	0.8110
predicted_HBP	0.1320
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3386
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.3579
predicted_SO	0.5580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1620	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4470	3.2710	3.3456	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2479	0.2479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1840	0.3220	0.2635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.8110	0.7979	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1320	0.1320	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0640	0.0623	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3386	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4470	0.4540	0.4510	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2650	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3579	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.5580	0.6449	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676609
playerID	676609
playerName	José Caballero
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	2.000	0.731	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	-0.654	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.115	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.115	1.000	-0.115	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	1.115	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.054
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.398	0.129
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	-0.088
predicted_H	0.909	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.401	0.093
predicted_RBI	0.537	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	1.022	-0.093

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.40), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.3529	0.3529	0.5882	0.3529	0.0588	0.2353	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	11.000	0.2571	0.2571	0.4000	0.2571	0.0286	0.1429	0.0000	0.3143
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	29.000	0.2000	0.2609	0.2941	0.2000	0.0235	0.1059	0.0824	0.3412

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5050
predicted_AVG	0.2781
predicted_BB	0.1080
predicted_H	0.9750
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.3024
predicted_R	0.4780
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4471
predicted_SO	0.9450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1760	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	3.5050	3.3979	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2781	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.1080	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9750	0.9092	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1370	0.1293	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3024	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.4780	0.4008	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5760	0.5370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4471	0.4471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1150	0.9450	1.0222	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ben Rice (700250) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3097

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	5.000	0.355	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.190	0.500
predicted_BB	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.710	0.000	0.290	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.129	0.000	0.871	2.000
predicted_HR	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.355	0.000	0.645	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.600	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.000	0.177	0.600
predicted_R	0.903	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.903	0.000	0.097	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.700	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.806	0.000	2.194	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.590	1.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.681	0.000	0.569	1.250
predicted_SO	1.097	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.097	2.000	-0.097	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.720	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.710	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.354	-
predicted_R	0.903	-
predicted_RBI	0.700	-
predicted_SLG	0.590	-
predicted_SO	1.097	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.752	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.283	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.550	-0.160
predicted_H	1.060	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.354	0.000
predicted_R	0.790	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.709	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.590	0.000
predicted_SO	0.987	-0.110

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.282 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.6316	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	7.000	0.3158	0.3721	0.6053	0.3158	0.0790	0.1842	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.20	31	-	113.000	35.000	9.000	11.000	25.000	28.000	22.000	34.000	0.3097	0.4234	0.6814	0.3097	0.0974	0.2212	0.1947	0.3009

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2120
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.2827
predicted_BB	0.4320
predicted_H	1.0670
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_OBP	0.3545
predicted_R	0.7060
predicted_RBI	0.7150
predicted_SLG	0.5901
predicted_SO	0.9050

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2900	0.2120	0.2452	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7200	3.7750	3.7516	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2827	0.2828	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7100	0.4320	0.5504	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0670	1.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3140	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3540	0.3545	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9030	0.7060	0.7899	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7000	0.7150	0.7086	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5900	0.5901	0.5901	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0970	0.9050	0.9868	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	700250
playerID	700250
playerName	Ben Rice
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.1720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1724

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1720

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	3.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.172	0.000	0.228	0.400
predicted_BB	0.719	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	0.000	1.375	2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	0.906	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.318	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.095	0.150
predicted_R	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.397	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.319	0.000	0.681	1.000
predicted_SO	0.719	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.719	1.000	-0.719	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.850	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.719	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.318	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.397	-
predicted_SO	0.719	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	0.138
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.821	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.599	-0.120
predicted_H	0.873	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.068	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.318	-0.000
predicted_R	0.737	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.677	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.397	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.672	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.227 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.850

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.2105	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	4.000	5.000	0.2051	0.2727	0.4103	0.2051	0.0256	0.1795	0.1026	0.1282
season	0.20	32	-	116.000	20.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	21.000	23.000	23.000	0.1724	0.3050	0.3190	0.1724	0.0259	0.1552	0.1983	0.1983

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4270
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2283
predicted_BB	0.5100
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3178
predicted_R	0.7970
predicted_RBI	0.6750
predicted_SLG	0.3969
predicted_SO	0.6370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.4270	0.3256	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0080	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8500	3.8000	3.8212	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2283	0.2282	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7190	0.5100	0.5986	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.8680	0.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0660	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3180	0.3178	0.3179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.7970	0.7372	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6750	0.6771	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3970	0.3969	0.3969	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7190	0.6370	0.6718	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.172

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_AB	3.684	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	-0.684	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.359	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.250	-0.286	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.632	1.000	0.368	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	1.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_H	1.310	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.053	1.000	-1.053	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.400	-0.133	-0.150
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.940	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.629	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.250	-0.507	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.579	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.579	1.000	-0.579	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.079	-
predicted_AB	3.684	-
predicted_AVG	0.359	-
predicted_BB	0.632	-
predicted_H	1.310	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.940	-
predicted_SLG	0.629	-
predicted_SO	0.579	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	0.081
predicted_3B	0.122	0.043
predicted_AB	3.696	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.359	0.000
predicted_BB	0.635	0.003
predicted_H	1.322	0.012
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.099	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.448	-0.000
predicted_R	0.562	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.949	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.629	0.000
predicted_SO	0.548	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.358 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.3889	0.5000	0.6111	0.3889	0.0000	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	16.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	0.4211	0.4889	0.8421	0.4210	0.0526	0.3421	0.1579	0.1316
season	0.20	38	-	140.000	40.000	10.000	3.000	5.000	26.000	24.000	24.000	22.000	0.2857	0.3832	0.5071	0.2857	0.0357	0.1857	0.1714	0.1571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4020
predicted_3B	0.1520
predicted_AB	3.7040
predicted_AVG	0.3591
predicted_BB	0.6380
predicted_H	1.3300
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_OBP	0.4475
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.9560
predicted_SLG	0.6294
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.4020	0.3444	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0790	0.1520	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6840	3.7040	3.6957	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3590	0.3591	0.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6320	0.6380	0.6355	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3100	1.3300	1.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.0980	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4475	0.4477	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.5120	0.5617	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9400	0.9560	0.9494	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6290	0.6294	0.6292	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5790	0.5270	0.5485	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-1B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Carlos Rodón (607074) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 0

All-history rows before 20260510: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4080
predicted_ER	1.7110
predicted_ERA	4.2002
predicted_H	3.4510
predicted_HR	0.4720
predicted_IP	3.2000
predicted_SO	3.5180
predicted_WHIP	1.3251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4080	1.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7110	1.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2002	4.2002	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.4510	1.5576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4720	0.1074	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	3.5180	3.1178	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3251	1.3251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Max Fried (608331) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.111	5.000	-2.111	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.389	6.000	-2.289	-1.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.333	5.000	-5.333	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.200	13.000	22.000	13.000	28.000	1.000	3.8152	1.1413	0.4239	0.7174	0.4239	0.9130	0.0326
last_10	0.35	9	58.200	19.000	38.000	18.000	48.000	1.000	2.9148	0.9545	0.3239	0.6477	0.3068	0.8182	0.0170
season	0.20	9	58.200	19.000	38.000	18.000	48.000	1.000	2.9148	0.9545	0.3239	0.6477	0.3068	0.8182	0.0170

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1210
predicted_ER	2.3090
predicted_ERA	3.7306
predicted_H	4.3450
predicted_HR	0.3510
predicted_IP	5.2000
predicted_SO	5.0470
predicted_WHIP	1.1609

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1210	1.0586	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.3090	1.1525	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7306	3.7306	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	4.3450	2.1687	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3510	0.1752	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.2000	5.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	5.0470	2.5191	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1609	1.1609	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	2.91
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	608331
playerID	608331
playerName	Max Fried
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	2.100	2.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.962	1.000	1.138	1.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.188	1.000	0.812	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 2.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	1.0588	0.0000	1.0588
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	2.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.9000	0.2000	1.2000
season	0.20	16	16.100	6.000	18.000	5.000	19.000	3.3061	1.4082	0.3674	1.1020	0.3061	1.1633

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_ER	0.7520
predicted_ERA	3.7417
predicted_H	1.7520
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.8560
predicted_WHIP	1.2535

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5140	0.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7520	0.2962	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7417	3.7417	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7520	0.6900	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1410	0.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.1000	1.2000	2.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.8560	1.9433	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2535	1.2535	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Tim Hill (657612) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.739	0.100	0.361	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.389	0.000	1.611	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	0.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3636	0.0000	1.3636	0.0000	0.8182	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.0800	0.9600	0.1200	0.7200	0.2400	0.4800	0.1200
season	0.20	18	16.100	2.000	11.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.1020	0.7959	0.1225	0.6735	0.1225	0.4286	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3020
predicted_ER	0.3390
predicted_ERA	2.7822
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9070
predicted_WHIP	1.2400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3020	0.7251	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3390	0.7397	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7822	2.7822	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0580	1.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1090	0.6491	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9070	1.5695	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2400	1.2400	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.10
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	657612
playerID	657612
playerName	Tim Hill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 21

All-history rows before 20260510: 21

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.190	1.000	0.810	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.833	1.100	0.167	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.048	1.000	-0.048	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5714	0.1429	0.2857	0.2857	1.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	2.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.5429	0.8571	0.1714	0.6000	0.2571	0.8571	0.0857
season	0.20	21	21.000	4.000	18.000	8.000	22.000	1.000	1.7143	1.2381	0.1905	0.8571	0.3810	1.0476	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.3680
predicted_ERA	2.9540
predicted_H	0.8350
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0760
predicted_WHIP	1.0884

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3850	1.3221	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3680	0.7347	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9540	2.9540	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8350	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1320	0.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0760	1.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0884	1.0884	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Camilo Doval (666808) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.588	1.000	0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.200	-0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.1539	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	6.000	9.000	2.000	10.000	3.000	5.5862	1.1379	0.6207	0.9310	0.2069	1.0345	0.3103
season	0.20	17	14.200	10.000	15.000	3.000	16.000	3.000	6.1364	1.2273	0.6818	1.0227	0.2046	1.0909	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_ER	0.3960
predicted_ERA	4.5138
predicted_H	0.7750
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7980
predicted_WHIP	1.3036

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0977	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3960	0.7686	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5138	4.5138	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7750	0.9138	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1080	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7980	1.5395	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3036	1.3036	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	666808
playerID	666808
playerName	Camilo Doval
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.506	0.100	-0.306	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	2.2500	1.5000	0.2500	1.0000	0.5000	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	11.000	5.000	12.000	2.000	4.3200	1.9200	0.4800	1.3200	0.6000	1.4400	0.2400
season	0.20	18	14.000	5.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	2.000	3.2143	1.6429	0.3571	0.8571	0.7857	1.4286	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.2840
predicted_ERA	3.8309
predicted_H	0.6610
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6800
predicted_WHIP	1.4504

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3060	0.1158	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2840	0.1075	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8309	3.8309	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6610	0.2502	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6800	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4504	1.4504	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Home Team: MIL

Jackson Chourio (694192) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.4440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.770	3.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.500	5.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.323	0.000	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.444	0.200	-0.444	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.540	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	2.000	1.000	-2.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.474	0.200	-0.224	0.050
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.611	0.200	-0.611	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.750	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.323	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	1.540	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.480	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.606	-0.144
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	4.497	-0.273
predicted_AVG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	0.010
predicted_H	1.451	-0.089
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.086	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.372	-0.000
predicted_R	0.314	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.633	-0.037
predicted_SLG	0.480	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 4.770

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.4444	0.4737	0.6111	0.4444	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	4	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.4444	0.4737	0.6111	0.4444	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	4	-	18.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.4444	0.4737	0.6111	0.4444	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3810
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	4.0720
predicted_AVG	0.3225
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	1.3130
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3716
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.5760
predicted_SLG	0.4799
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.7500	0.3810	0.6056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.7700	4.0720	4.4968	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3230	0.3225	0.3228	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2750	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5400	1.3130	1.4512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0800	0.0861	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3716	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4130	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.5760	0.6332	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4800	0.4799	0.4800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9110	0.9652	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.444

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	694192
playerID	694192
playerName	Jackson Chourio
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 27

All-history rows before 20260510: 27

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2316

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2320

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.519	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	4.000	0.481	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.018	0.000
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	1.000	0.185	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	0.963	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.250	-0.110	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.266	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.250	0.653	0.750
predicted_SO	1.444	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.444	2.000	-1.444	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.519	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.266	-
predicted_SO	1.444	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.210	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.788	0.269
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.532	-0.135
predicted_H	0.676	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.266	0.000
predicted_SO	1.366	-0.078

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1364	0.2083	0.1818	0.1364	0.0000	0.0454	0.0909	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.1795	0.2727	0.2308	0.1795	0.0000	0.0769	0.1026	0.3077
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	22.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	21.000	15.000	18.000	39.000	0.2316	0.3596	0.3474	0.2316	0.0105	0.2210	0.1895	0.4105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.9970
predicted_AVG	0.1861
predicted_BB	0.4260
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.2706
predicted_R	0.5080
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.2664
predicted_SO	1.3060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.2010	0.2102	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0100	0.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5190	3.9970	3.7876	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1861	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.4260	0.5316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7440	0.6765	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2706	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5080	0.5290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3940	0.3572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2660	0.2664	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4440	1.3060	1.3664	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Luis Rengifo (650859) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.308	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	3.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.062	0.250
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	1.000	-0.385	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.250	-0.019	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	1.577	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.239	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.271	0.000	0.229	0.500
predicted_SO	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.423	0.000	0.577	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.308	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.600	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.239	-
predicted_SO	0.423	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.213	-0.095
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.634	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	0.051
predicted_H	0.620	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	0.003
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.393	-0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1176	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.2500	0.1944	0.1667	0.1389	0.0556
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	18.000	8.000	11.000	10.000	10.000	11.000	0.1875	0.2685	0.2708	0.1875	0.1146	0.1042	0.1146

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5880
predicted_AVG	0.1773
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	0.6360
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2770
predicted_R	0.3910
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.2386
predicted_SO	0.3690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3080	0.1380	0.2131	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.5880	3.6340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1773	0.1772	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.4770	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6000	0.6360	0.6201	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2770	0.2770	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3910	0.3883	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4000	0.3912	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4230	0.3690	0.3929	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	650859
playerID	650859
playerName	Luis Rengifo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1948

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2170

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.042	1.000	-0.042	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.208	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.208	3.000	-1.208	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.333	0.305	0.167
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.258	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.333	0.399	0.333
predicted_R	0.458	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	1.000	0.542	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.208	0.667	0.292	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.208	-
predicted_AVG	0.186	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.258	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	0.057
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.160	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.186	0.000
predicted_BB	0.330	-0.003
predicted_H	0.548	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.258	-0.000
predicted_R	0.446	-0.012
predicted_RBI	0.494	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.1875	0.2143	0.1429	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1786	0.2941	0.2143	0.1786	0.1786	0.1786	0.1786
season	0.20	24	-	77.000	15.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	8.000	18.000	0.1948	0.2674	0.2078	0.1948	0.1169	0.1039	0.2338

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1190
predicted_AVG	0.1863
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.5810
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2579
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.5230
predicted_SLG	0.2605
predicted_SO	0.6570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0420	0.1470	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2080	3.1190	3.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1860	0.1863	0.1862	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3280	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5810	0.5484	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0232	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2580	0.2579	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.4360	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5230	0.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2605	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.6570	0.6997	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Gary Sánchez (596142) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 21

All-history rows before 20260510: 21

System season_avg: 0.2140

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2143

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.214	0.250	-0.214	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.762	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.762	0.000	0.238	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.250	-0.118	0.000
predicted_R	0.524	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.524	1.000	-0.524	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.250	-0.443	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.762	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.524	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.292	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.005
predicted_3B	0.042	-0.006
predicted_AB	3.512	0.179
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.620	-0.142
predicted_H	0.692	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.481	-0.043
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.1842	0.2791	0.2632	0.1842	0.0000	0.1316	0.1053	0.1842
season	0.20	21	-	70.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	11.000	16.000	18.000	0.2143	0.3678	0.4429	0.2143	0.0571	0.1571	0.2286	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.1985
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.3016
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.2919
predicted_SO	0.7310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.0850	0.0896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.0360	0.0415	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.6640	3.5123	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1985	0.1987	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7620	0.5000	0.6201	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7270	0.6917	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0610	0.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3016	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5240	0.4450	0.4812	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3970	0.3800	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2920	0.2919	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.7310	0.7887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.214

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	596142
playerID	596142
playerName	Gary Sánchez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Andrew Vaughn (683734) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.333	-0.267	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	0.750	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.500	-0.103	-0.250
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.533	0.667	-0.533	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.324	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	-0.017
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.763	0.013
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.009
predicted_H	0.928	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.163	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.324	-0.000
predicted_R	0.689	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.396	0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.35	4	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667
season	0.20	4	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2060
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.2530
predicted_BB	0.2730
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_OBP	0.3236
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.6670
predicted_SLG	0.4462
predicted_SO	0.6340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2060	0.2333	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7830	3.7626	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2530	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2730	0.2587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.9570	0.9279	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1690	0.1634	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3240	0.3236	0.3238	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5890	0.6888	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6670	0.6503	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4462	0.4461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2500	0.6340	0.3960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	683734
playerID	683734
playerName	Andrew Vaughn
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.810	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	5.000	0.265	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.200	-0.291	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.853	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.853	0.000	-0.853	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.088	1.000	-1.088	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.420	0.200	-0.420	-0.200
predicted_R	0.882	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.200	-0.488	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.941	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.810	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.853	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.882	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	0.941	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.013
predicted_AB	3.842	0.032
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.779	-0.074
predicted_H	1.161	0.011
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.149	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.806	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.454	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.844	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.810

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	8.000	6.000	0.3421	0.4565	0.5000	0.3421	0.0263	0.1053	0.2105	0.1579
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	30.000	29.000	32.000	0.2913	0.4204	0.4882	0.2913	0.0394	0.1732	0.2283	0.2520

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8650
predicted_AVG	0.3021
predicted_BB	0.7260
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1480
predicted_OBP	0.4114
predicted_R	0.7520
predicted_RBI	0.4560
predicted_SLG	0.4626
predicted_SO	0.7740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1600	0.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0070	0.0162	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8100	3.8650	3.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3021	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8530	0.7260	0.7791	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.1680	1.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1480	0.1488	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4114	0.4112	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8820	0.7520	0.8063	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4560	0.4535	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4626	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9410	0.7740	0.8438	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Blake Perkins (663368) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

System season_avg: 0.1280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1282

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	5.000	0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.128	0.000	-0.128	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.205	0.000	-0.205	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.292	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.054
predicted_H	0.489	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.041	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.491	0.074
predicted_RBI	0.463	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.000
predicted_SO	0.932	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.29), rates preserved: AVG=0.149 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	0.0714	0.1875	0.1429	0.0714	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.1250	0.2432	0.1875	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.3438
season	0.20	12	-	39.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1282	0.2444	0.2051	0.1282	0.1282	0.1282	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.3380
predicted_AVG	0.1590
predicted_BB	0.3040
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.4990
predicted_SLG	0.2613
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2020	0.2269	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.3380	3.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1590	0.1590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.3040	0.3626	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5310	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5710	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4990	0.4632	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2613	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8580	0.9317	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.128

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663368
playerID	663368
playerName	Blake Perkins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2929

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.170	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.118	4.000	-1.118	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.500	-0.293	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.206	2.000	-1.206	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.400	-0.109	-0.150
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.765	2.000	-0.765	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.407	0.500	-0.407	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.170	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.337	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.142	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	-0.120
predicted_H	1.101	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.067	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	-0.072
predicted_RBI	0.784	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.337	0.000
predicted_SO	0.498	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, weight=0.092, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.170

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.1905	0.2174	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	8.000	3.000	4.000	0.3571	0.4043	0.4524	0.3571	0.0238	0.2857	0.0714	0.0952
season	0.20	34	-	140.000	41.000	7.000	3.000	26.000	21.000	14.000	17.000	0.2929	0.3590	0.4071	0.2929	0.0214	0.1857	0.1000	0.1214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1220
predicted_AVG	0.2654
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.3105
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.7800
predicted_SLG	0.3370
predicted_SO	0.4970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2060	0.0950	0.1414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1700	4.1220	4.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2654	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.2060	0.2921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.0940	1.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0650	0.0671	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3105	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.4950	0.5464	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.7800	0.7842	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3370	0.3370	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4970	0.4983	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

Logan Henderson (701656) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	5.200	5.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.000	6.000	1.200	-0.800
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.500	8.000	-0.500	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 5.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	8.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	4.5000	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250	1.3750
last_10	0.35	2	8.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	4.5000	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250	1.3750
season	0.20	2	8.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	4.5000	0.8750	0.5000	0.7500	0.1250	1.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6090
predicted_ER	2.4720
predicted_ERA	4.2858
predicted_H	4.6020
predicted_HR	0.4770
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.5960
predicted_WHIP	1.1965

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6090	2.5156	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.4720	2.8161	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2858	4.2858	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.6020	3.5578	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.4770	0.8179	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.2000	5.1000	5.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.5960	5.2075	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1965	1.1965	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.2
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	701656
playerID	701656
playerName	Logan Henderson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.780	1.000	0.320	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.933	0.000	2.067	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	4.1538	0.6923	0.4615	0.6923	0.0000	1.1539	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	5.1923	1.0385	0.5769	0.8077	0.2308	0.9231	0.1154
season	0.20	15	13.100	6.000	11.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.0500	1.0500	0.4500	0.8250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_ER	0.5820
predicted_ERA	4.3028
predicted_H	1.0690
predicted_HR	0.1700
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2080
predicted_WHIP	1.1727

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3590	0.1342	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5820	0.2176	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3028	4.3028	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0690	0.3996	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1700	0.0636	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2080	2.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1727	1.1727	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.05
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.150	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.312	1.000	0.688	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	0.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4737	0.0000	0.1579	0.3158	1.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	5.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.4839	0.5806	1.0645	0.0968
season	0.20	16	18.000	3.000	9.000	12.000	21.000	1.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	0.5000	0.6667	1.1667	0.0556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.4130
predicted_ERA	2.9549
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2810
predicted_WHIP	1.1141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2148	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4130	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9549	2.9549	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8680	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0476	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2810	1.7097	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1141	1.1141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3180
predicted_ER	0.5280
predicted_ERA	4.3522
predicted_H	1.1200
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0510
predicted_WHIP	1.3177

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3180	0.1265	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5280	0.8122	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3522	4.3522	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1200	1.0477	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2500	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0510	1.6224	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3177	1.3177	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.929	1.000	0.171	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	3.6000	1.0000	0.4000	0.8000	0.2000	1.0000
season	0.20	13	13.000	5.000	10.000	5.000	15.000	3.4615	1.1538	0.3846	0.7692	0.3846	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4070
predicted_ER	0.5030
predicted_ERA	3.7103
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2000
predicted_WHIP	1.1942

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4070	0.1512	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5030	0.1868	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7103	3.7103	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0490	1.6468	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0383	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2000	1.0743	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1942	1.1942	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.23
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.233	2.000	-1.033	-1.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.111	3.000	-1.111	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	1.000	4.000	6.000	14.000	0.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.4138	0.6207	1.4483	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	20.000	0.000	0.6923	1.3846	0.0769	0.6154	0.7692	1.5385	0.0000
season	0.20	18	25.000	6.000	18.000	15.000	38.000	1.000	2.1600	1.3200	0.2400	0.7200	0.6000	1.5200	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6040
predicted_ER	0.3380
predicted_ERA	2.6517
predicted_H	0.8540
predicted_HR	0.0790
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.4080
predicted_WHIP	1.2698

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6040	0.2646	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3380	0.7100	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6517	2.6517	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8540	2.0599	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0790	0.5965	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4080	1.1787	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2698	1.2698	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.16
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_NYY@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

20260510_OAK@BAL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.4392499999999999, "away_win_probability": 0.5607500000000001, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 BAL", "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "OAK 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "OAK 6 - 1 BAL", "winner": "OAK"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -3, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: OAK

Shea Langeliers (669127) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3401

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.290	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.200	3.000	-0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.382	0.000	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.667	-0.340	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.371	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	1.000	0.629	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.640	0.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.429	2.000	-1.429	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.200	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.391	0.600	-0.191	-0.400
predicted_R	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	2.000	-0.629	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.701	0.000	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.626	0.667	-0.626	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.290	-
predicted_AVG	0.382	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	1.640	-
predicted_HR	0.380	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.930	-
predicted_SLG	0.701	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.297	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.382	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	-0.013
predicted_H	1.642	0.002
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.382	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.420	-0.000
predicted_R	0.933	0.133
predicted_RBI	0.935	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.701	0.000
predicted_SO	0.877	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.382 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.290

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	0.4091	0.4400	0.8182	0.4091	0.1364	0.3182	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	20.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	6.000	0.4444	0.4694	0.7556	0.4444	0.0667	0.1778	0.0667	0.1333
season	0.20	35	-	147.000	50.000	9.000	11.000	22.000	28.000	13.000	35.000	0.3401	0.3913	0.6259	0.3401	0.0748	0.1497	0.0884	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2170
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.3020
predicted_AVG	0.3821
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_H	1.6440
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.3830
predicted_OBP	0.4196
predicted_R	1.0280
predicted_RBI	0.9380
predicted_SLG	0.7011
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.2170	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0018	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2900	4.3020	4.2970	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3820	0.3821	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.3480	0.3576	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6400	1.6440	1.6423	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3800	0.3830	0.3818	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4196	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	1.0280	0.9331	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9300	0.9380	0.9347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7010	0.7011	0.7011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7900	0.8774	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669127
playerID	669127
playerName	Shea Langeliers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Lawrence Butler (671732) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1980

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.607	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.607	4.000	0.393	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.250	0.052	0.000
predicted_BB	0.536	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.536	0.000	-0.536	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.250	-0.052	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.250	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.607	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.536	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.325	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.027
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.515	-0.092
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.637	0.101
predicted_H	0.742	0.022
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.064	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.582	0.082
predicted_RBI	0.234	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.325	0.000
predicted_SO	0.944	-0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3125	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	0.1765	0.3171	0.2941	0.1765	0.0294	0.0882	0.2059	0.2941
season	0.20	28	-	101.000	20.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	14.000	15.000	28.000	0.1980	0.3017	0.3168	0.1980	0.0297	0.1188	0.1485	0.2772

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4440
predicted_AVG	0.2203
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_H	0.7590
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3524
predicted_R	0.6450
predicted_RBI	0.2380
predicted_SLG	0.3254
predicted_SO	0.9000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1550	0.1340	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6070	3.4440	3.5152	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2203	0.2202	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5360	0.7160	0.6374	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7590	0.7420	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0670	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3524	0.3522	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6450	0.5817	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2380	0.2345	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3250	0.3254	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9000	0.9437	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	671732
playerID	671732
playerName	Lawrence Butler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2057

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.297	0.000	-0.297	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	5.000	0.189	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.044	0.250
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.784	0.000	0.216	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_R	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.000	-0.154	0.250
predicted_SO	0.973	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.973	3.000	-0.973	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.297	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.350	-
predicted_SO	0.973	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.204	-0.093
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.788	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.000
predicted_BB	0.513	0.027
predicted_H	0.639	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.178	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.653	0.085
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	1.175	0.202

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.1053	0.2273	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	0.1892	0.3023	0.4054	0.1892	0.0541	0.0541	0.1622	0.3784
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	29.000	11.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	21.000	18.000	36.000	0.2057	0.2938	0.4043	0.2057	0.0355	0.1418	0.1277	0.2553

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7720
predicted_AVG	0.1690
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_H	0.6380
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_OBP	0.2732
predicted_R	0.7140
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.3500
predicted_SO	1.3190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2970	0.1380	0.2043	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0070	0.0153	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.7720	3.7883	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1690	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5320	0.5128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.6380	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1770	0.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.7140	0.6532	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3000	0.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3500	0.3500	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9730	1.3190	1.1748	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2893

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.184	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.184	5.000	-0.184	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.211	0.000	-0.211	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.000	-0.059	0.250
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.474	0.000	0.526	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.000	-0.146	0.250
predicted_SO	0.526	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.526	3.000	-0.526	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.184	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.132	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.325	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.526	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.059	-0.125
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.209	0.077
predicted_H	1.121	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.139	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.325	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.026
predicted_RBI	0.584	-0.006
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	0.658	0.132

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.184

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3953	0.4615	0.3333	0.0256	0.1026	0.1026	0.1282
season	0.20	38	-	159.000	46.000	8.000	3.000	19.000	18.000	5.000	20.000	0.2893	0.3091	0.3962	0.2893	0.0189	0.1195	0.0314	0.1258

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9710
predicted_AVG	0.2806
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	1.1140
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3254
predicted_R	0.5180
predicted_RBI	0.5800
predicted_SLG	0.4171
predicted_SO	0.7510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.1230	0.1595	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1840	3.9710	4.0594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2806	0.2808	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1320	0.2630	0.2086	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.1140	1.1206	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1380	0.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3250	0.3254	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.5180	0.4997	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.5800	0.5841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4171	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5260	0.7510	0.6576	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2643

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.184	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.184	2.000	0.816	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.684	4.000	1.316	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.400	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.500	0.136	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.280	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	2.000	1.026	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.418	0.600	-0.018	-0.200
predicted_R	0.605	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	3.000	0.395	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.600	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.436	1.000	0.164	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.368	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.368	0.000	0.632	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.184	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.890	-
predicted_AVG	0.330	-
predicted_BB	0.974	-
predicted_H	1.280	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	1.368	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.268	0.084
predicted_3B	0.075	0.050
predicted_AB	3.969	0.079
predicted_AVG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.767	-0.207
predicted_H	1.307	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.420	-0.000
predicted_R	0.637	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.692	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.498	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.050	-0.318

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.329 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.890

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.3810	0.4583	0.5714	0.3810	0.0000	0.1905	0.1429	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.3415	0.4255	0.4878	0.3415	0.0000	0.1951	0.1463	0.2439
season	0.20	38	-	140.000	37.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	20.000	23.000	37.000	52.000	0.2643	0.4181	0.4357	0.2643	0.0357	0.1429	0.2643	0.3714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3270
predicted_3B	0.1100
predicted_AB	4.0240
predicted_AVG	0.3295
predicted_BB	0.6230
predicted_H	1.3260
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.4197
predicted_R	0.6600
predicted_RBI	0.7010
predicted_SLG	0.4979
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1840	0.3270	0.2682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1100	0.0755	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8900	4.0240	3.9689	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3300	0.3295	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9740	0.6230	0.7673	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2800	1.3260	1.3071	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0430	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4197	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.6600	0.6374	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7010	0.6924	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4979	0.4979	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3680	0.8280	1.0501	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Carlos Cortes (666126) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.3410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3415

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.341	0.333	-0.341	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.333	-0.393	-0.333
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.561	0.667	-0.561	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.003
predicted_AB	3.659	0.242
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	-0.078
predicted_H	1.044	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.101	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.508	0.050
predicted_RBI	0.425	0.045
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000
predicted_SO	0.478	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	0.3750	0.3902	0.6000	0.3750	0.0500	0.1750	0.0250	0.1500
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	28.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	14.000	11.000	7.000	9.000	0.3415	0.3933	0.5610	0.3415	0.0488	0.1707	0.0854	0.1098

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.8630
predicted_AVG	0.2952
predicted_BB	0.1480
predicted_H	1.1400
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.5510
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.4420
predicted_SO	0.5640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1650	0.1659	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0360	0.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.8630	3.6594	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2952	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.1480	0.2137	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.1400	1.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1100	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.5510	0.5085	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4630	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4420	0.4420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.5640	0.4777	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.341

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	666126
playerID	666126
playerName	Carlos Cortes
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	3.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.023	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.938	1.000	0.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.083	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.509	0.333	-0.259	-0.083
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.371	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.537	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	0.017
predicted_3B	0.080	0.018
predicted_AB	3.520	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.294	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	0.064
predicted_H	0.975	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.162	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.371	0.000
predicted_R	0.641	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.606	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.537	0.000
predicted_SO	1.039	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	0.3235	0.4103	0.5882	0.3235	0.0588	0.2059	0.1471	0.2941
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	10.000	5.000	16.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5091	0.2727	0.0546	0.2000	0.0909	0.2909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1590
predicted_3B	0.0980
predicted_AB	3.5990
predicted_AVG	0.2936
predicted_BB	0.4370
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.3711
predicted_R	0.6570
predicted_RBI	0.6590
predicted_SLG	0.5374
predicted_SO	1.0760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1590	0.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0980	0.0803	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.5990	3.5200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2936	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.4370	0.3756	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0570	0.9750	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1740	0.1622	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3710	0.3711	0.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.6570	0.6413	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6590	0.6055	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5370	0.5374	0.5372	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0760	1.0387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 22

All-history rows before 20260510: 22

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1977

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	4.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.267	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.500	0.052	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	2.000	0.227	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	1.000	-0.227	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.600	-0.026	-0.350
predicted_R	0.409	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	1.000	0.591	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.920	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	3.000	1.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.384	1.250	-0.134	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.409	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.409	0.000	-1.409	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.267	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.338	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.920	-
predicted_SLG	0.521	-
predicted_SO	1.409	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	0.056
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.922	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.440	-0.015
predicted_H	1.048	-0.002
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.281	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.418	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.919	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.521	0.000
predicted_SO	1.320	-0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.3158	0.4091	0.6842	0.3158	0.1053	0.3158	0.1579	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.2619	0.3111	0.5000	0.2619	0.0714	0.2381	0.0714	0.3095
season	0.20	22	-	86.000	17.000	1.000	5.000	18.000	9.000	10.000	31.000	0.1977	0.2755	0.3837	0.1977	0.0581	0.2093	0.1163	0.3605

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9240
predicted_AVG	0.2667
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	1.0470
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.2820
predicted_OBP	0.3384
predicted_R	0.4250
predicted_RBI	0.9180
predicted_SLG	0.5215
predicted_SO	1.2470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.1470	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.9240	3.9222	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4280	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0470	1.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2820	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3380	0.3384	0.3382	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.4250	0.4178	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9200	0.9180	0.9189	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5210	0.5215	0.5213	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4090	1.2470	1.3197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jeff McNeil (643446) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.3060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.581	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.581	4.000	0.419	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.444	0.750
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.097	0.000	1.903	3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.382	0.750
predicted_R	0.290	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	0.000	0.710	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.387	0.000	0.613	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.000	0.345	0.750
predicted_SO	0.452	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.452	1.000	-0.452	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.581	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.347	-
predicted_SO	0.452	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.245	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.653	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	-0.089
predicted_H	0.892	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.117	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.222	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.502	0.052
predicted_SLG	0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	0.613	0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.3056	0.3500	0.3889	0.3056	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.1389
season	0.20	31	-	111.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	14.000	0.3063	0.3680	0.4054	0.3063	0.0090	0.1081	0.0901	0.1261

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2350
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.2595
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.1170
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3083
predicted_R	0.1710
predicted_RBI	0.5420
predicted_SLG	0.3475
predicted_SO	0.7360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.2350	0.2449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5810	3.7080	3.6532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2595	0.2597	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.1660	0.2338	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9620	0.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1170	0.1170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0280	0.0245	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3083	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.1710	0.2224	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.5420	0.5023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3470	0.3475	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4520	0.7360	0.6134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.306

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	643446
playerID	643446
playerName	Jeff McNeil
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Luis Severino (622663) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.500	1.000	-2.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.300	5.000	-1.200	-0.900
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.375	3.000	1.625	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	12.000	28.000	12.000	26.000	5.000	3.6000	1.3333	0.4000	0.9333	0.4000	0.8667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	8	43.100	20.000	39.000	25.000	43.000	5.000	4.1538	1.4769	0.4615	0.9000	0.5769	0.9923	0.1154
season	0.20	8	43.100	20.000	39.000	25.000	43.000	5.000	4.1538	1.4769	0.4615	0.9000	0.5769	0.9923	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2400
predicted_ER	2.2880
predicted_ERA	3.9393
predicted_H	4.8620
predicted_HR	0.7430
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	4.8460
predicted_WHIP	1.3583

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.2400	1.6045	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.2880	1.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9393	3.9393	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.8620	4.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7430	0.3622	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.1000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.8460	5.9499	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3583	1.3583	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	7
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	102
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	61
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_OAK@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	622663
playerID	622663
playerName	Luis Severino
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 22

All-history rows before 20260510: 22

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.695	1.000	0.505	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	1.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	2.4545	2.1818	0.2727	1.6364	0.5454	1.3636	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	11.000	1.000	2.2500	1.7500	0.2500	1.1250	0.6250	1.3750	0.1250
season	0.20	22	20.200	6.000	17.000	17.000	22.000	2.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	0.8226	0.8226	1.0645	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_ER	0.4700
predicted_ERA	3.3949
predicted_H	1.3710
predicted_HR	0.1230
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3910
predicted_WHIP	1.5949

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6160	0.8395	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4700	0.7784	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3949	3.3949	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.3710	1.7370	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1230	0.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3910	0.5815	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5949	1.5949	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Scott Barlow (605130) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.944	2.000	1.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	3.3750	0.3750	0.3750	0.0000	0.3750	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	3.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	2.5312	0.6562	0.2812	0.1875	0.4688	0.9375	0.0938
season	0.20	17	18.200	3.000	5.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	1.4464	0.6429	0.1607	0.2679	0.3750	0.9107	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4700
predicted_ER	0.4710
predicted_ERA	3.5587
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.1100
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1290
predicted_WHIP	0.9852

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4700	0.1915	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4710	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5587	3.5587	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7040	0.2868	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1100	0.0448	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1290	1.6451	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9852	0.9852	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	605130
playerID	605130
playerName	Scott Barlow
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.370	0.200	-0.370	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.100	2.000	-1.100	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	4.5000	1.1667	0.5000	0.8333	0.3333	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	15.100	7.000	14.000	5.000	21.000	4.1087	1.2391	0.4565	0.9130	0.3261	1.3696
season	0.20	10	15.100	7.000	14.000	5.000	21.000	4.1087	1.2391	0.4565	0.9130	0.3261	1.3696

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4300
predicted_ER	0.5580
predicted_ERA	4.2489
predicted_H	1.0790
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3500
predicted_WHIP	1.2771

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4300	0.1666	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5580	0.2162	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2489	4.2489	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0790	1.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0364	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3500	1.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2771	1.2771	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.11
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.728	1.000	0.272	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	1.056	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	13.5000	2.0000	1.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	10.000	12.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	10.8000	2.0400	1.2000	1.4400	0.6000	1.2000	0.1200
season	0.20	18	15.200	15.000	24.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	8.6170	1.9149	0.9575	1.5319	0.3830	1.0851	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_ER	0.7010
predicted_ERA	7.0319
predicted_H	1.0320
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9440
predicted_WHIP	1.5830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3890	0.1516	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7010	0.8835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0319	7.0319	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0320	1.0125	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0940	0.0366	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9440	1.5885	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5830	1.5830	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	8.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 14

All-history rows before 20260510: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.864	1.000	-0.664	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.4211	0.7895	0.1579	0.3158	0.4737	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	3.000	9.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.1471	0.2647	0.7941	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	14	14.200	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	1.8409	0.9545	0.2046	0.6818	0.2727	0.3409

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_ER	0.3130
predicted_ERA	3.3315
predicted_H	0.6750
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.5940
predicted_WHIP	1.1861

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3270	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3130	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3315	3.3315	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6750	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0264	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	1.0000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5940	0.2276	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1861	1.1861	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: BAL

Weston Wilson (642215) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	1.778	2.000	2.222	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.333	-0.150	-0.083
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_SO	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.338	-
predicted_SO	0.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.036	0.036
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	2.789	0.289
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.462	-0.007
predicted_H	0.552	0.162
predicted_HBP	0.035	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.169	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	0.645	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.198 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.1667
last_10	0.35	7	-	16.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.1875	0.2500
season	0.20	7	-	16.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.1875	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.2300
predicted_AVG	0.2471
predicted_BB	0.4500
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.0350
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.2430
predicted_SLG	0.3381
predicted_SO	0.6760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0920	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0028	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	3.2300	2.7894	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2471	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.4500	0.4615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.7980	0.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0350	0.0350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0620	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.4750	0.4714	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.2430	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3380	0.3381	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6250	0.6760	0.6452	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	642215
playerID	642215
playerName	Weston Wilson
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Adley Rutschman (668939) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 22

All-history rows before 20260510: 22

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3023

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3810

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.960	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	5.000	0.091	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.200	-0.302	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.318	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.318	0.000	-0.318	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.182	1.000	-1.182	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.200	-0.362	-0.200
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.864	0.000	-0.864	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.570	0.400	-0.570	-0.400
predicted_SO	0.591	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.591	2.000	0.409	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.318	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.349	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	0.591	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.373	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.948	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.281	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	-0.006
predicted_H	1.107	-0.003
predicted_HBP	0.108	-
predicted_HR	0.187	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.349	0.000
predicted_R	0.532	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.689	-0.001
predicted_SLG	0.520	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.630	0.039

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.960

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.6000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	0.2750	0.3256	0.5000	0.2750	0.0500	0.2250	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	22	-	86.000	26.000	8.000	5.000	19.000	11.000	7.000	13.000	0.3023	0.3617	0.5698	0.3023	0.0581	0.2209	0.0814	0.1512

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3810
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9380
predicted_AVG	0.2805
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	1.1050
predicted_HBP	0.1080
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3490
predicted_R	0.5590
predicted_RBI	0.6880
predicted_SLG	0.5197
predicted_SO	0.6630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.3810	0.3733	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9600	3.9380	3.9479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2805	0.2807	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3180	0.3070	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.1050	1.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1080	0.1080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1850	0.1873	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3490	0.3490	0.3490	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5590	0.5323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6880	0.6889	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5197	0.5198	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5910	0.6630	0.6304	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	668939
playerID	668939
playerName	Adley Rutschman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2200

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.030	0.250
predicted_BB	0.525	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.825	0.000	0.175	1.000
predicted_HR	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.675	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.675	0.000	-0.675	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.930	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.591	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.000	-0.197	0.250
predicted_SO	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	1.000	-0.050	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.525	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.320	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.675	-
predicted_RBI	0.930	-
predicted_SLG	0.591	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.785	0.035
predicted_AVG	0.253	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.033
predicted_H	0.949	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.323	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.870	0.195
predicted_RBI	0.948	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.591	0.000
predicted_SO	0.995	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.251 HR/AB=0.085

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.6500	0.2500	0.1000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.6944	0.2778	0.1111	0.2500	0.1667	0.2500
season	0.20	40	-	150.000	33.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	27.000	21.000	42.000	0.2200	0.3198	0.4467	0.2200	0.0533	0.1467	0.1400	0.2800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8090
predicted_AVG	0.2525
predicted_BB	0.4690
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.3250
predicted_OBP	0.3355
predicted_R	1.0070
predicted_RBI	0.9610
predicted_SLG	0.5910
predicted_SO	0.9570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3110	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8090	3.7846	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2525	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5250	0.4690	0.4921	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9620	0.9488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3200	0.3250	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3355	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6750	1.0070	0.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9300	0.9610	0.9482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5910	0.5910	0.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	0.9570	0.9954	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2152

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2150

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.292	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.292	4.000	0.708	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.250	-0.215	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.708	1.000	-0.708	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.250	-0.271	-0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.250	-0.241	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.083	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	1.000	0.917	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.292	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	0.002
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.456	0.164
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.183	-0.025
predicted_H	0.909	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.317	-0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.000
predicted_SO	1.078	-0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.3684	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.2727	0.2424	0.0303	0.0606	0.3333
season	0.20	24	-	79.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	26.000	0.2152	0.2706	0.2405	0.2152	0.0253	0.0633	0.3291

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0860
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5960
predicted_AVG	0.2810
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.3165
predicted_R	0.2330
predicted_RBI	0.2220
predicted_SLG	0.3322
predicted_SO	1.0740

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0860	0.0846	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2920	3.5960	3.4561	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2810	0.2810	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.1610	0.1826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.0110	0.9093	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0254	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3165	0.3167	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2330	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2220	0.1981	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3322	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.0740	1.0781	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-3B
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2570

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2571

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2570

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.257	0.500	-0.007	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.964	2.000	0.036	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.500	-0.072	-0.250
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.464	0.000	-0.464	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.551	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.500	0.043	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.331	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	1.190	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.551	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	0.095
predicted_3B	0.076	0.041
predicted_AB	3.821	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.331	0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	-0.078
predicted_H	1.243	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.629	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.551	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.325 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.5789	0.3684	0.0000	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.3902	0.4048	0.6829	0.3902	0.0488	0.1707	0.0244	0.2439
season	0.20	28	-	105.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	13.000	13.000	10.000	28.000	0.2571	0.3217	0.4571	0.2571	0.0476	0.1238	0.0952	0.2667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3120
predicted_3B	0.1080
predicted_AB	3.8760
predicted_AVG	0.3313
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	1.2840
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1080
predicted_OBP	0.3697
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.6510
predicted_SLG	0.5508
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.3120	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.1080	0.0765	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8760	3.8209	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3310	0.3313	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2180	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1900	1.2840	1.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1080	0.1045	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.5300	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6510	0.6287	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5510	0.5508	0.5509	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8250	0.9015	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.257

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2036

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	4.520	4.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.282	5.000	-0.282	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.500	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.400	0.296	0.100
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.872	2.000	1.128	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.500	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.400	0.236	0.100
predicted_R	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.590	0.000	-0.590	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.513	0.000	-0.513	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.500	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.600	0.081	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.410	1.000	-0.410	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	4.520	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.590	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	1.410	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.009
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	4.450	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	-0.073
predicted_H	0.847	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	-0.204
predicted_RBI	0.305	-0.005
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.312	-0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.833)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 4.520

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1739	0.2083	0.2174	0.1739	0.0000	0.0435	0.0435	0.2609
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	14.000	0.1778	0.1957	0.2222	0.1778	0.0000	0.0444	0.0222	0.3111
season	0.20	39	-	167.000	34.000	7.000	1.000	9.000	20.000	23.000	13.000	55.000	0.2036	0.2637	0.4192	0.2036	0.0539	0.1198	0.0778	0.3293

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1940
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.4020
predicted_AVG	0.1903
predicted_BB	0.2090
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.2280
predicted_R	0.2440
predicted_RBI	0.3010
predicted_SLG	0.2789
predicted_SO	1.2440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1940	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0148	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5200	4.4020	4.4504	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1903	0.1902	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2090	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.8380	0.8470	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0610	0.0606	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2280	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5900	0.2440	0.3858	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3010	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4100	1.2440	1.3120	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.640	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.564	2.000	0.436	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.131	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	-0.016	0.250
predicted_BB	0.974	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.974	3.000	-0.974	-3.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.949	0.000	0.051	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.425	0.600	-0.175	-0.350
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.172	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.381	0.000	0.119	0.500
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.640	-
predicted_AVG	0.131	-
predicted_BB	0.974	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.172	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.156
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.289	-0.351
predicted_AVG	0.131	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.267	0.293
predicted_H	0.431	-0.049
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.410	-0.000
predicted_R	0.930	0.263
predicted_RBI	0.145	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.172	0.000
predicted_SO	1.018	0.223

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.118 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	9.000	7.000	0.0714	0.4348	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	11.000	16.000	11.000	0.0741	0.4186	0.0741	0.0741	0.0000	0.0370	0.5926	0.4074
season	0.20	39	-	139.000	37.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	26.000	38.000	31.000	0.2662	0.4246	0.3813	0.2662	0.0072	0.0863	0.2734	0.2230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.0450
predicted_AVG	0.1305
predicted_BB	1.4710
predicted_H	0.3970
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.4098
predicted_R	1.1130
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.1720
predicted_SO	1.1730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.0690	0.1774	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6400	3.0450	3.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1310	0.1305	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9740	1.4710	1.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.3970	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0180	0.0188	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4098	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	1.1130	0.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1340	0.1447	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1720	0.1720	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	1.1730	1.0178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	3
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2771

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.320	3.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.333	-0.027	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.640	0.000	-0.640	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.394	0.333	-0.144	-0.083
predicted_R	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.480	1.000	-0.480	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.720	0.000	-0.720	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.333	-0.184	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	1.000	0.280	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.320	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.640	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.342	-
predicted_R	0.480	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.370	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	0.037
predicted_3B	0.039	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.394	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.586	-0.054
predicted_H	0.776	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.342	0.000
predicted_R	0.439	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.405	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.370	0.000
predicted_SO	0.803	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.3529	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	8.000	0.2121	0.3333	0.3333	0.2121	0.0000	0.1515	0.1818	0.2424
season	0.20	25	-	83.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	18.000	12.000	16.000	18.000	0.2771	0.3939	0.4337	0.2771	0.0241	0.2169	0.1928	0.2169

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.4540
predicted_AVG	0.2378
predicted_BB	0.5420
predicted_H	0.8210
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.3422
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.4260
predicted_SLG	0.3703
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2670	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0380	0.0389	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3200	3.4540	3.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6400	0.5420	0.5859	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8210	0.7757	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0390	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3420	0.3422	0.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4800	0.4060	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4260	0.4054	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3700	0.3703	0.3702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.8710	0.8033	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2366

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2370

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.321	3.000	-1.321	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.333	-0.237	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.429	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.429	1.000	1.571	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.786	1.000	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.179	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.667	-0.366	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.893	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.893	2.000	0.107	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.321	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.429	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	0.093
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.269	-0.052
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.522	0.093
predicted_H	0.822	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.375	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.041
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	0.950	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4737	0.5333	0.3333	0.0000	0.0667	0.2667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.2000	0.3667
season	0.20	28	-	93.000	22.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	12.000	12.000	25.000	0.2366	0.3208	0.3656	0.2366	0.0215	0.1075	0.1290	0.2688

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2270
predicted_AVG	0.2624
predicted_BB	0.5960
predicted_H	0.8470
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3748
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.4134
predicted_SO	0.9950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.3810	0.3070	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3210	3.2270	3.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2624	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4290	0.5960	0.5220	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8470	0.8217	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0322	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3748	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5020	0.4696	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3070	0.2995	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4134	0.4132	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	0.9950	0.9498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	0.000	3.833	5.000
predicted_IP	5.100	5.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	4.233	4.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	1.000	2.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	1.0714	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529
season	0.20	6	5.200	7.000	11.000	5.000	2.000	11.1176	1.9412	1.2353	1.9412	0.8823	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4220
predicted_ER	2.0210
predicted_ERA	4.0100
predicted_H	4.4760
predicted_HR	0.6710
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.1160
predicted_WHIP	1.3000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.4220	1.1288	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.0210	4.0909	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0100	4.0100	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	4.4760	7.6195	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6710	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.1000	4.2000	5.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.1160	3.3406	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3000	1.3000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.1
H	9
R	5
ER	5
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	28
Pitches	109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	11.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.643	1.000	0.557	0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	19.6364	4.3636	2.1818	3.5455	0.8182	1.6364	0.2727
last_10	0.35	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765
season	0.20	7	5.200	8.000	13.000	3.000	7.000	1.000	12.7059	2.8235	1.4118	2.2941	0.5294	1.2353	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6690
predicted_ER	1.1100
predicted_ERA	6.7351
predicted_H	2.0250
predicted_HR	0.2240
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.5810
predicted_WHIP	1.8164

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6690	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.1100	1.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.7351	6.7351	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	2.0250	1.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2240	0.0684	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.5810	1.8721	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8164	1.8164	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	12.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	0.000	0.471	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.976	1.100	0.124	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.3529	1.5882	0.7059	1.4118	0.1765	0.8823	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	3.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.9375	0.1875	1.0312	0.2812
season	0.20	16	18.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	20.000	4.000	3.0000	0.9444	0.3333	0.7778	0.1667	1.1111	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.5980
predicted_ERA	4.5068
predicted_H	1.2130
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1560
predicted_WHIP	1.3135

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3560	0.1437	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5980	0.8377	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5068	4.5068	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2130	1.0860	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2400	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1560	1.6593	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3135	1.3135	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	1.000	0.133	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000	1.2500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	1.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	0.9643	0.4286	0.1071	0.1071	0.3214	1.1786	0.1071
season	0.20	18	17.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	19.000	1.000	0.5294	0.4118	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529	1.1177	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_ER	0.2800
predicted_ERA	2.6854
predicted_H	0.5460
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9920
predicted_WHIP	0.9753

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3700	0.1472	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2800	0.1114	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6854	2.6854	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5460	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0910	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9920	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9753	0.9753	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.622	2.000	0.378	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	0.000	1.389	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.1875	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.0385	0.4615	0.1154	0.3462	0.1154	0.4615	0.1154
season	0.20	18	14.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.2857	0.5000	0.1429	0.4286	0.0714	0.7857	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.3170
predicted_ERA	2.9205
predicted_H	0.6920
predicted_HR	0.1000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7720
predicted_WHIP	0.9751

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2600	0.0984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3170	0.1200	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9205	2.9205	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6920	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1000	0.0379	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7720	1.5351	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9751	0.9751	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dietrich Enns (608650) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.086	1.000	-0.886	-0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.429	1.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	1.5882	1.5882	0.1765	0.7059	0.8823	0.8823
last_10	0.35	7	9.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.6667	0.7778	1.1111
season	0.20	7	9.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	2.0000	1.4444	0.2222	0.6667	0.7778	1.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_ER	0.3050
predicted_ERA	3.5377
predicted_H	0.6800
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7390
predicted_WHIP	1.3855

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3940	0.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3050	0.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5377	3.5377	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6800	0.8916	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7390	1.5727	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3855	1.3855	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_OAK@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	608650
playerID	608650
playerName	Dietrich Enns
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

20260510_PIT@SF

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 SF", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 SF", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 SF", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: PIT

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2579

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.530	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.297	6.000	0.703	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	-0.058	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.351	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.351	0.000	-0.351	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.108	3.000	-0.108	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.243	0.000	-0.243	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.500	-0.122	-0.300
predicted_R	0.784	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.784	3.000	-0.784	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.291	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.500	-0.265	-0.300
predicted_SO	1.568	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.568	2.000	0.432	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.530	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.351	-
predicted_H	1.030	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.784	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.291	-
predicted_SO	1.568	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.284	-0.246
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.000
predicted_BB	0.365	0.014
predicted_H	0.971	-0.059
predicted_HBP	0.121	-
predicted_HR	0.064	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.765	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.295	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.390	-0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 5 (raw=4.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	5.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.530

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	14.000	0.2326	0.3125	0.2558	0.2326	0.0000	0.0698	0.0930	0.3256
season	0.20	37	-	159.000	41.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	29.000	13.000	58.000	0.2579	0.3218	0.4654	0.2579	0.0566	0.1761	0.0818	0.3648

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1110
predicted_AVG	0.2263
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.1210
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.3101
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.2909
predicted_SO	1.2650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0840	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.5300	4.1110	4.2837	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2263	0.2262	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3510	0.3750	0.3651	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0300	0.9300	0.9712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1210	0.1210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0590	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3101	0.3101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7840	0.7510	0.7646	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.2850	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2910	0.2909	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5680	1.2650	1.3899	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Brandon Lowe (664040) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1360

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	1.000	-0.030	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.960	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	4.000	1.121	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.500	-0.273	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.606	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.606	1.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.440	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	-1.061	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.465	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.373	0.500	-0.373	-0.500
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	2.000	-0.727	-2.000
predicted_RBI	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	4.000	-0.818	-4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.765	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.594	1.250	-0.594	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.939	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.939	1.000	0.061	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.960	-
predicted_AVG	0.363	-
predicted_BB	0.606	-
predicted_H	1.440	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.465	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	1.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.765	-
predicted_SO	0.939	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.080	0.050
predicted_AB	3.737	-0.223
predicted_AVG	0.363	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.747	0.141
predicted_H	1.358	-0.082
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.329	-0.021
predicted_OBP	0.465	-0.000
predicted_R	0.954	0.227
predicted_RBI	1.037	-0.063
predicted_SLG	0.765	0.000
predicted_SO	0.734	-0.205

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.343 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.960

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	0.4706	0.5833	1.0000	0.4706	0.1177	0.4118	0.3529	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	0.3429	0.4545	0.7714	0.3429	0.0857	0.2286	0.2286	0.1429
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	10.000	27.000	24.000	20.000	31.000	0.2734	0.3733	0.5938	0.2734	0.0781	0.2109	0.1562	0.2422

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.1160
predicted_AB	3.5760
predicted_AVG	0.3629
predicted_BB	0.8500
predicted_H	1.2980
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.3130
predicted_OBP	0.4647
predicted_R	1.1180
predicted_RBI	0.9910
predicted_SLG	0.7651
predicted_SO	0.5850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2680	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1160	0.0798	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9600	3.5760	3.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3630	0.3629	0.3629	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6060	0.8500	0.7474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4400	1.2980	1.3577	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3130	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4650	0.4647	0.4648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	1.1180	0.9536	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.1000	0.9910	1.0368	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7650	0.7651	0.7651	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9390	0.5850	0.7338	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	664040
playerID	664040
playerName	Brandon Lowe
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Yorke (694377) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2060

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.706	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.706	2.000	-0.706	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	-0.765	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.000	-0.032	0.250
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SO	0.882	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	1.000	0.118	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.706	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.762	0.056
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.062
predicted_H	0.612	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.217	-0.000
predicted_R	0.299	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.317	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.1538	0.2143	0.2564	0.1538	0.0256	0.0513	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	17	-	63.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	15.000	0.2063	0.2817	0.2857	0.2064	0.0159	0.0476	0.0794	0.2381

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.1730
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.6590
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.2168
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.3420
predicted_SLG	0.3044
predicted_SO	0.9400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0950	0.1059	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7060	3.8120	3.7616	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1730	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.1760	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6590	0.6119	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1320	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2168	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.3570	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3420	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3044	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.9400	0.9124	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	694377
playerID	694377
playerName	Nick Yorke
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2605

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.719	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	4.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	0.239	0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.969	1.000	1.031	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.200	0.174	0.300
predicted_R	0.438	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	2.000	-0.531	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.250	0.363	0.500
predicted_SO	1.188	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.188	2.000	-1.188	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.719	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.335	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	1.188	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.035
predicted_3B	0.050	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.641	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.360	0.048
predicted_H	0.937	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.335	0.000
predicted_R	0.401	-0.037
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	1.249	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.2353	0.3000	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.3333	0.4048	0.4722	0.3333	0.0000	0.1389	0.1389	0.3333
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	31.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	17.000	14.000	10.000	38.000	0.2605	0.3258	0.3866	0.2605	0.0168	0.1429	0.0840	0.3193

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2180
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.5830
predicted_AVG	0.2692
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_H	0.9650
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3354
predicted_R	0.3740
predicted_RBI	0.4630
predicted_SLG	0.3790
predicted_SO	1.2950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.2180	0.1914	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0410	0.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7190	3.5830	3.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2692	0.2691	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3960	0.3600	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9650	0.9372	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3350	0.3354	0.3352	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.3740	0.4014	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4630	0.4489	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3790	0.3790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1880	1.2950	1.2492	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Henry Davis (680779) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 23

All-history rows before 20260510: 23

System season_avg: 0.1560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1558

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1560

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.130	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.130	0.000	0.870	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.348	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.348	3.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.177	0.333
predicted_BB	0.304	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	1.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.522	0.000	0.478	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.244	0.250	0.256	0.250
predicted_R	0.435	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.435	0.000	0.565	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	0.000	0.696	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.394	0.667
predicted_SO	0.739	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.739	1.000	0.261	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.348	-
predicted_AVG	0.154	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.231	-
predicted_R	0.435	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.739	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.464	0.116
predicted_AVG	0.154	0.000
predicted_BB	0.319	0.015
predicted_H	0.499	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.231	0.000
predicted_R	0.483	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.810	0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1111	0.2000	0.4444	0.1111	0.1111	0.2222	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.1176	0.1892	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	23	-	77.000	12.000	3.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	7.000	17.000	0.1558	0.2442	0.2727	0.1558	0.0260	0.0909	0.0909	0.2208

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0640
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.5630
predicted_AVG	0.1541
predicted_BB	0.3310
predicted_H	0.5490
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.2300
predicted_OBP	0.2314
predicted_R	0.5230
predicted_RBI	0.5360
predicted_SLG	0.3676
predicted_SO	0.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1300	0.0640	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0022	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3480	3.5630	3.4643	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1540	0.1541	0.1541	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.3310	0.3186	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5490	0.4989	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2300	0.2116	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2310	0.2314	0.2312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4350	0.5230	0.4826	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5360	0.4873	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3676	0.3678	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7390	0.8710	0.8104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.156

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260506_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	680779
playerID	680779
playerName	Henry Davis
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Spencer Horwitz (687462) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.226	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.226	3.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.000	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.677	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.677	2.000	-0.677	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.374	0.250	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.600	-0.129	-0.350
predicted_R	0.355	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	2.000	0.645	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	1.000	0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.439	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.667	-0.120	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.484	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.484	1.000	0.516	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.226	-
predicted_AVG	0.253	-
predicted_BB	0.677	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.374	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.439	-
predicted_SO	0.484	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.072
predicted_3B	0.075	0.043
predicted_AB	3.410	0.184
predicted_AVG	0.253	0.000
predicted_BB	0.683	0.006
predicted_H	0.835	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.374	-0.000
predicted_R	0.370	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.439	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.476	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.2778	0.4091	0.5000	0.2778	0.0000	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	0.2286	0.3721	0.4286	0.2286	0.0286	0.2000	0.2286	0.0857
season	0.20	31	-	100.000	25.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	21.000	15.000	0.2500	0.3790	0.3700	0.2500	0.0200	0.1400	0.2100	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2560
predicted_3B	0.1080
predicted_AB	3.5510
predicted_AVG	0.2531
predicted_BB	0.6870
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3739
predicted_R	0.3820
predicted_RBI	0.7240
predicted_SLG	0.4389
predicted_SO	0.4700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.2560	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.1080	0.0751	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2260	3.5510	3.4105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2530	0.2531	0.2531	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6770	0.6870	0.6827	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8990	0.8346	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0568	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3740	0.3739	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.3820	0.3703	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.7240	0.6704	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4390	0.4389	0.4389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4840	0.4700	0.4761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687462
playerID	687462
playerName	Spencer Horwitz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1984

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	1.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.065	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.065	6.000	-0.065	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.167	-0.198	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.263	0.167	-0.263	-0.167
predicted_R	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.433	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.333	-0.325	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.129	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.129	3.000	-0.129	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.065	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.355	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.433	-
predicted_SO	1.129	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.161	0.032
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.987	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.348	0.025
predicted_H	0.979	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.359	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.401	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.433	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	-0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, weight=0.127, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.065

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	11.000	0.2683	0.3333	0.4634	0.2683	0.0488	0.1463	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.20	31	-	126.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	11.000	10.000	35.000	0.1984	0.2628	0.3254	0.1984	0.0318	0.1111	0.0794	0.2778

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.2508
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	0.9860
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.3170
predicted_R	0.3620
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.4326
predicted_SO	0.9460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.1850	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0650	3.9300	3.9875	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.3670	0.3483	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	0.9860	0.9792	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1750	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3170	0.3170	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3550	0.3620	0.3590	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4020	0.4011	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4330	0.4326	0.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1290	0.9460	1.0239	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.167
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 33

All-history rows before 20260510: 33

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3281

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.920	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	6.000	0.121	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.667	-0.078	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.273	4.000	-0.273	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.388	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.667	-0.140	-0.417
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.833	-0.125	-0.583
predicted_SO	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.920	-
predicted_AVG	0.278	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.388	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.173	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.756	-0.164
predicted_AVG	0.278	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	0.115
predicted_H	1.044	-0.046
predicted_HBP	0.155	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.388	-0.000
predicted_R	0.392	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.280	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.920

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3810	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	0.3243	0.4444	0.3514	0.3243	0.1081	0.1622	0.1892
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	42.000	6.000	17.000	15.000	10.000	26.000	0.3281	0.3901	0.3750	0.3281	0.1328	0.0781	0.2031

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6360
predicted_AVG	0.2780
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HBP	0.1550
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3878
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.3420
predicted_SO	0.7810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1660	0.1728	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9200	3.6360	3.7564	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2780	0.2780	0.2780	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.5030	0.4182	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.0110	1.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1550	0.1550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3880	0.3878	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3460	0.3922	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2730	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3420	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	0.7810	0.7840	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	6
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2963

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.226	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.296	0.400	0.370	0.267
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.111	2.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	0.861	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.378	0.500	0.372	0.250
predicted_R	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.722	1.000	1.278	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.304	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.444	0.400	1.222	1.267
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.226	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.583	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.304	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.764	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.226	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.059
predicted_H	0.846	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	-0.000
predicted_R	0.506	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.599	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.304	0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3500	0.2500	0.0250	0.2250	0.1000	0.2500
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	40.000	5.000	5.000	26.000	21.000	18.000	30.000	0.2963	0.3782	0.4444	0.2963	0.0370	0.1926	0.1333	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7750
predicted_AVG	0.2256
predicted_BB	0.3990
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3007
predicted_R	0.4510
predicted_RBI	0.6060
predicted_SLG	0.3042
predicted_SO	0.9500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.0800	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7750	3.7645	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2260	0.2256	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3990	0.4412	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8510	0.8464	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0710	0.0706	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3007	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5830	0.4510	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6060	0.5993	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3040	0.3042	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.9500	0.9011	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.296

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bubba Chandler (696149) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.571	2.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.757	5.000	-1.657	-1.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	4.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.100	15.000	20.000	16.000	21.000	5.000	5.3289	1.4211	0.5921	0.7895	0.6316	0.8289	0.1974
last_10	0.35	7	34.000	18.000	25.000	26.000	31.000	5.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.7353	0.7647	0.9118	0.1471
season	0.20	7	34.000	18.000	25.000	26.000	31.000	5.000	4.7647	1.5000	0.5294	0.7353	0.7647	0.9118	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3540
predicted_ER	2.2870
predicted_ERA	4.7805
predicted_H	3.6390
predicted_HR	0.6970
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	3.8520
predicted_WHIP	1.3920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.3540	1.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.2870	2.6621	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7805	4.7805	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.6390	3.8289	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6970	0.8564	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	4.1000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.8520	3.9299	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3920	1.3920	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	4
HR	1
BF	16
Pitches	61

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	6
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	696149
playerID	696149
playerName	Bubba Chandler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.953	1.000	0.247	0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	6.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	11.5714	2.5714	1.2857	1.7143	0.8571	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	7.000	11.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	6.5172	1.8621	0.7241	1.1379	0.7241	0.4138	0.2069
season	0.20	17	16.200	7.000	12.000	9.000	10.000	2.000	3.7800	1.2600	0.4200	0.7200	0.5400	0.6000	0.1200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7410
predicted_ER	0.9050
predicted_ERA	5.8117
predicted_H	1.5270
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.0100
predicted_WHIP	1.6183

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7410	0.2933	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9050	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8117	5.8117	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5270	0.6045	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2700	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0100	1.0040	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6183	1.6183	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	0.100	0.372	1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	13.5000	1.8000	1.5000	0.9000	0.9000	0.9000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	5.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	4.8214	1.1786	0.5357	0.7500	0.4286	0.6429
season	0.20	18	17.000	7.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	3.7059	1.4118	0.4118	0.8823	0.5294	0.7647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6630
predicted_ER	0.8820
predicted_ERA	5.9353
predicted_H	1.2060
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1880
predicted_WHIP	1.3976

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6630	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8820	0.3509	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9353	5.9353	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2060	0.4798	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1030	0.0410	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1880	1.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3976	1.3976	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Yohan Ramírez (670990) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	5.000	-0.625	-5.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.244	0.100	-0.144	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	6.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.000	10.1250	1.5000	1.1250	1.1250	0.3750	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.100	8.000	12.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	5.0233	1.3953	0.5581	0.8372	0.5581	1.0465	0.0698
season	0.20	16	22.000	10.000	17.000	11.000	24.000	1.000	4.0909	1.2727	0.4546	0.7727	0.5000	1.0909	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5320
predicted_ER	0.7820
predicted_ERA	5.5681
predicted_H	1.1960
predicted_HR	0.1060
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3390
predicted_WHIP	1.3684

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5320	0.2259	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7820	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.5681	5.5681	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1960	0.5078	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1060	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3390	0.5685	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3684	1.3684	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	4.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	2
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	670990
playerID	670990
playerName	Yohan Ramírez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.793	0.200	-0.593
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.467	0.000	-1.467

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000	0.2143	0.6429	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.000	0.0000	0.9643	0.0000	0.5357	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.000	5.000	12.000	8.000	22.000	1.000	3.2143	1.4286	0.3571	0.8571	0.5714	1.5714	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_ER	0.2560
predicted_ERA	2.9284
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7800
predicted_WHIP	1.2121

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3490	0.1321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2560	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9284	2.9284	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6030	1.4712	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0690	0.0261	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7800	0.2953	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2121	1.2121	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.21
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.000	-0.863	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.316	1.000	-1.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.3750	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	0.5806	0.1935	0.3871	0.1935	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	19	19.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	25.000	1.000	1.4211	0.6842	0.1579	0.3158	0.3684	1.3158	0.0526

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_ER	0.1910
predicted_ERA	2.7775
predicted_H	0.4080
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6300
predicted_WHIP	0.9739

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1960	0.0802	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1910	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7775	2.7775	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4080	0.1670	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6300	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9739	0.9739	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_PIT@ARI
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: SF

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2695

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.950	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.711	5.000	0.289	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.200	-0.020	0.050
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.200	-0.066	0.050
predicted_R	0.395	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.395	0.000	0.605	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.383	0.200	-0.133	0.050
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.950	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.395	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.253	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.082
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.959	0.009
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000
predicted_BB	0.201	-0.062
predicted_H	0.831	0.001
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.332	-0.063
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.253	0.000
predicted_SO	0.457	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.950

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1795	0.2195	0.1795	0.1795	0.0000	0.0513	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.20	38	-	141.000	38.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	15.000	10.000	19.000	0.2695	0.3158	0.3830	0.2695	0.0142	0.0780	0.0709	0.1348

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.9650
predicted_AVG	0.2095
predicted_BB	0.1560
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2391
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.2640
predicted_SLG	0.2534
predicted_SO	0.4260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.0690	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9500	3.9650	3.9587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2095	0.2093	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.1560	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.8310	0.8306	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2391	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3950	0.2860	0.3317	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2640	0.2623	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2530	0.2534	0.2532	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4260	0.4571	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2681

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.5710

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.667	-0.018	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.028	2.000	-0.028	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.750	-0.051	-0.500
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.413	0.667	-0.163	-0.417
predicted_SO	1.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.194	0.000	-0.194	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.409	-
predicted_SO	1.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.076	0.048
predicted_AB	3.851	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.206	0.012
predicted_H	1.000	0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.388	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.278	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.409	0.000
predicted_SO	1.147	-0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2750	0.3023	0.4000	0.2750	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.20	36	-	138.000	37.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	14.000	7.000	43.000	0.2681	0.3014	0.4130	0.2681	0.0217	0.1087	0.0507	0.3116

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2330
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.8640
predicted_AVG	0.2644
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.0210
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.3021
predicted_R	0.3870
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.4095
predicted_SO	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2330	0.2402	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.1110	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8640	3.8509	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2644	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2140	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0210	0.9995	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3021	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.3870	0.3878	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2840	0.2781	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4090	0.4095	0.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1940	1.1120	1.1466	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.769	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.769	3.000	0.231	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	-0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.410	0.000	-0.410	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_SO	1.256	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.256	2.000	-0.256	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.769	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.690	-
predicted_SLG	0.533	-
predicted_SO	1.256	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.566	-0.203
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.241	0.010
predicted_H	0.975	-0.045
predicted_HBP	0.004	-
predicted_HR	0.266	-0.014
predicted_OBP	0.313	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	0.102
predicted_RBI	0.659	-0.031
predicted_SLG	0.533	0.000
predicted_SO	1.203	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3125	0.3333	0.6875	0.3125	0.1250	0.2500	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.2727	0.3158	0.5152	0.2727	0.0606	0.1818	0.0909	0.3636
season	0.20	39	-	147.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	16.000	12.000	9.000	49.000	0.2245	0.2658	0.3469	0.2245	0.0272	0.1088	0.0612	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4210
predicted_AVG	0.2753
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	0.9420
predicted_HBP	0.0040
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.3126
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.6370
predicted_SLG	0.5332
predicted_SO	1.1650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1100	0.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7690	3.4210	3.5663	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2753	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2490	0.2415	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	0.9420	0.9746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0040	0.0040	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.2560	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3126	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.4830	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6900	0.6370	0.6591	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5330	0.5332	0.5331	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2560	1.1650	1.2030	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1974

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.289	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.000	0.053	0.250
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.079	0.000	0.921	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.000	0.017	0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.158	0.000	2.842	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.260	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.671	1.000
predicted_SO	1.263	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.263	1.000	-1.263	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.260	-
predicted_SO	1.263	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-0.107
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.903	-0.097
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	-0.033
predicted_H	0.773	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.101	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.000
predicted_SO	1.138	-0.125

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.1842	0.2051	0.2105	0.1842	0.0000	0.0000	0.0263	0.2895
season	0.20	38	-	152.000	30.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	14.000	6.000	48.000	0.1974	0.2327	0.3289	0.1974	0.0197	0.0395	0.0395	0.3158

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2061
predicted_BB	0.1010
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2279
predicted_R	0.3510
predicted_RBI	0.1020
predicted_SLG	0.2600
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2890	0.1050	0.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.8340	3.9032	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2061	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.1010	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7900	0.7733	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2279	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.3510	0.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1020	0.1012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2600	0.2600	0.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2630	1.0490	1.1382	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2292

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	3.000	-0.789	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.122	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.229	0.333	-0.229	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.395	1.000	-0.395	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.868	1.000	-0.868	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.500	-0.306	-0.500
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.333	-0.306	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.974	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.974	0.000	1.026	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.122	-
predicted_BB	0.395	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.189	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.166	-
predicted_SO	0.974	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.751	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.122	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.341	-0.054
predicted_H	0.439	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.022	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.189	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	-0.143
predicted_RBI	0.123	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.166	0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.116 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0556	0.1053	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	0.0789	0.1667	0.1053	0.0790	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053	0.3947
season	0.20	38	-	144.000	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	15.000	37.000	0.2292	0.3063	0.3056	0.2292	0.0069	0.0833	0.1042	0.2569

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0830
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7230
predicted_AVG	0.1216
predicted_BB	0.3030
predicted_H	0.4530
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0230
predicted_OBP	0.1891
predicted_R	0.1750
predicted_RBI	0.1260
predicted_SLG	0.1662
predicted_SO	0.9610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0830	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0070	0.0149	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.7230	3.7505	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1220	0.1216	0.1218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3950	0.3030	0.3413	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.4530	0.4392	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0230	0.0217	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1890	0.1891	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.1750	0.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1260	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1660	0.1662	0.1661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9740	0.9610	0.9664	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.229

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2940

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.760	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.719	4.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	-0.294	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.094	1.000	-1.094	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.250	-0.341	-0.250
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.529	0.250	-0.529	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.812	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.760	-
predicted_AVG	0.272	-
predicted_BB	0.156	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.034	0.003
predicted_AB	3.775	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.272	0.000
predicted_BB	0.170	0.014
predicted_H	1.026	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.055	-
predicted_HR	0.253	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5789	0.2632	0.1053	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.2895	0.3250	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.1316	0.0263	0.1842
season	0.20	32	-	119.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	14.000	5.000	26.000	0.2941	0.3411	0.5294	0.2941	0.0504	0.1513	0.0420	0.2185

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0750
predicted_3B	0.0360
predicted_AB	3.7870
predicted_AVG	0.2723
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	1.0310
predicted_HBP	0.0550
predicted_HR	0.2560
predicted_OBP	0.3151
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.5141
predicted_SO	0.8570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0750	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0360	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7600	3.7870	3.7754	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2720	0.2723	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1560	0.1810	0.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0310	1.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0550	0.0550	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2560	0.2534	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3151	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4240	0.4300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6150	0.6129	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5141	0.5141	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	0.8570	0.8377	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2632

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.167	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.167	3.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	-0.311	-0.250
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	1.000	-0.389	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.340	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.386	0.000	-0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.340	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	0.014
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.276	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.261	0.039
predicted_H	0.757	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.068	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.422	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.040
predicted_SLG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.679	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.28), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2941	0.3333	0.4118	0.2941	0.0294	0.1471	0.0588	0.1765
season	0.20	18	-	57.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3115	0.3860	0.2632	0.0351	0.1228	0.0702	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0840
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3800
predicted_AVG	0.2455
predicted_BB	0.2980
predicted_H	0.8300
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.3099
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.4480
predicted_SLG	0.3395
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0840	0.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0020	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1670	3.3800	3.2758	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2455	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2980	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8300	0.7566	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3099	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4540	0.4222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4480	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3400	0.3395	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6900	0.6787	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Luis Arraez (650333) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	0.806	1.000
predicted_3B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	4.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.750	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.250	0.438	0.500
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.260	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.222	1.000	1.778	2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	0.414	0.500
predicted_R	0.389	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	0.611	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.250	0.610	0.750
predicted_SO	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.194	1.000	-0.194	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.056	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.313	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.260	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	0.194	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	0.139
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.026
predicted_AB	3.925	-0.105
predicted_AVG	0.313	0.000
predicted_BB	0.114	-0.053
predicted_H	1.229	-0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.446	-0.015
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	0.278	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.3684	0.3684	0.5263	0.3684	0.1053	0.0000	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2821	0.2821	0.4103	0.2821	0.1282	0.0000	0.0769
season	0.20	36	-	141.000	44.000	7.000	2.000	13.000	14.000	6.000	7.000	0.3121	0.3356	0.3901	0.3121	0.0922	0.0425	0.0496

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4340
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.8490
predicted_AVG	0.3132
predicted_BB	0.0760
predicted_H	1.2060
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3275
predicted_R	0.4620
predicted_RBI	0.4350
predicted_SLG	0.4481
predicted_SO	0.3390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.4340	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0560	0.0120	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	3.8490	3.9252	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3130	0.3132	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.0760	0.1143	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2600	1.2060	1.2287	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3275	0.3277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.4620	0.4313	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.4350	0.4455	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4481	0.4481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1940	0.3390	0.2780	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	650333
playerID	650333
playerName	Luis Arraez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.4550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4545

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.455	0.500	-0.455	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	1.000	-1.250	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.667	-0.500	-0.667
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.727	0.500	-0.727	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	0.041
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.011	0.261
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	0.066
predicted_H	0.848	0.118
predicted_HBP	0.111	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	0.196	0.196

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.7273	0.4546	0.0909	0.1818
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.7273	0.4546	0.0909	0.1818
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.7273	0.4546	0.0909	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.3050
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HBP	0.1110
predicted_HR	0.1710
predicted_OBP	0.3621
predicted_R	0.4170
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.4913
predicted_SO	0.5620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1190	0.0414	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	3.5010	3.0115	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3050	0.3050	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1880	0.0655	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	1.0680	0.8477	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1110	0.1110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1710	0.1378	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3621	0.3620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.4170	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4950	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4913	0.4911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5620	0.1957	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.455

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Tyler Mahle (641816) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.857	0.000	-0.857	2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.043	5.100	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.857	5.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.000	13.000	24.000	15.000	25.000	4.000	4.3333	1.4444	0.4815	0.8889	0.5556	0.9259	0.1482
last_10	0.35	7	36.000	20.000	37.000	18.000	34.000	6.000	5.0000	1.5278	0.5556	1.0278	0.5000	0.9444	0.1667
season	0.20	7	36.000	20.000	37.000	18.000	34.000	6.000	5.0000	1.5278	0.5556	1.0278	0.5000	0.9444	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3200
predicted_ER	2.3650
predicted_ERA	4.3701
predicted_H	4.5290
predicted_HR	0.6950
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.5900
predicted_WHIP	1.4062

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3200	1.6256	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3650	2.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3701	4.3701	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.5290	4.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6950	0.8554	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.5900	4.8057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4062	1.4062	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.00
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641816
playerID	641816
playerName	Tyler Mahle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	1.000	-0.188	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.931	1.000	0.269	0.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	0.000	1.875	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	1.000	3.0000	1.6667	0.3333	1.0000	0.6667	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	3.000	9.000	8.000	11.000	2.000	2.3143	1.4571	0.2571	0.7714	0.6857	0.9429	0.1714
season	0.20	16	17.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	18.000	2.000	1.5882	1.1176	0.1765	0.5294	0.5882	1.0588	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7440
predicted_ER	0.5860
predicted_ERA	3.5056
predicted_H	1.3470
predicted_HR	0.2120
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.3730
predicted_WHIP	1.3890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7440	0.8981	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5860	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5056	3.5056	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3470	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2120	0.0843	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3730	2.3527	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3890	1.3890	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	35
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.906	1.000	0.094	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	2.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.1765	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294	0.7059	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	1.8000	0.7000	0.2000	0.3000	0.4000	0.7000
season	0.20	17	16.100	5.000	7.000	6.000	14.000	2.7551	0.7959	0.3061	0.4286	0.3674	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4420
predicted_ER	0.3970
predicted_ERA	3.5743
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7770
predicted_WHIP	1.1814

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4420	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3970	0.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5743	3.5743	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7400	0.2914	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0780	0.0307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7770	0.3060	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1814	1.1814	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.76
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.621	0.200	0.379	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.526	1.000	-0.526	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.100	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.6000	0.9000	0.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.200	0.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	1.3043	0.0000	0.5217	0.7826	0.3913	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.000	2.000	9.000	10.000	10.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1875	0.1250	0.5625	0.6250	0.6250	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_ER	0.2640
predicted_ERA	2.6550
predicted_H	0.7130
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7110
predicted_WHIP	1.3422

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4900	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2640	0.7117	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6550	2.6550	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7130	0.8876	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0750	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7110	0.2785	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3422	1.3422	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Walker (676254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.688	2.000	0.312	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	0.200	0.188	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	7.000	10.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	14.5385	3.2308	1.6154	2.3077	0.9231	0.4615	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	8.000	13.000	7.000	7.000	1.000	6.9677	1.9355	0.7742	1.2581	0.6774	0.6774	0.0968
season	0.20	16	15.100	11.000	19.000	10.000	14.000	2.000	6.4565	1.8913	0.7174	1.2391	0.6522	0.9130	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5350
predicted_ER	0.7220
predicted_ERA	6.4997
predicted_H	1.2390
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8340
predicted_WHIP	1.7737

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5350	0.2073	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7220	0.8923	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.4997	6.4997	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2390	2.3176	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8340	0.3232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7737	1.7737	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.46
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_PIT@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676254
playerID	676254
playerName	Ryan Walker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

20260510_SEA@CHW

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.49, "away_win_probability": 0.51, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 CHW", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 CHW", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "SEA 4 - 3 CHW", "winner": "SEA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "SEA 5 - 1 CHW", "winner": "SEA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: SEA

Brendan Donovan (680977) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.610	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.389	5.000	0.611	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.200	-0.045	0.050
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.365	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.413	0.200	-0.013	0.200
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.200	-0.242	0.050
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.610	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.365	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.352	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.525	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000
predicted_BB	0.410	-0.034
predicted_H	0.887	-0.023
predicted_HBP	0.263	-
predicted_HR	0.081	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.365	-0.000
predicted_R	0.438	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.438	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.352	0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.246 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2353	0.3571	0.3529	0.2353	0.0294	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
season	0.20	18	-	61.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	12.000	0.2951	0.4133	0.4918	0.2951	0.0492	0.1311	0.1311	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4490
predicted_AVG	0.2514
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	0.8670
predicted_HBP	0.2630
predicted_HR	0.0810
predicted_OBP	0.3646
predicted_R	0.4330
predicted_RBI	0.4280
predicted_SLG	0.3522
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0960	0.1294	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6100	3.4490	3.5248	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2514	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.3790	0.4096	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8670	0.8872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2630	0.2630	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0810	0.0805	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3650	0.3646	0.3648	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4330	0.4382	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4280	0.4384	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6090	0.6363	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	680977
playerID	680977
playerName	Brendan Donovan
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 27

All-history rows before 20260510: 27

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	5.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	5.000	1.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.600	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.400	0.333	0.200
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	2.000	2.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.360	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.259	2.000	0.741	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.600	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.400	0.280	0.200
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	2.000	0.556	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.200	4.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	7.000	3.222	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.607	1.200	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.567	1.600	0.633	-0.400
predicted_SO	1.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.296	2.000	-0.296	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.360	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	1.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.607	-
predicted_SO	1.296	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.238	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.203	0.018
predicted_H	0.715	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.367	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.016
predicted_RBI	1.224	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.607	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.247	-0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.110

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.8667	0.2667	0.2000	0.6667	0.0667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.1481	0.2069	0.4815	0.1482	0.1111	0.3704	0.0741	0.4074
season	0.20	27	-	90.000	24.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	21.000	12.000	5.000	35.000	0.2667	0.3196	0.5667	0.2667	0.0778	0.2333	0.0556	0.3889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.1600
predicted_AVG	0.2299
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	0.7270
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.3730
predicted_OBP	0.2840
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	1.2430
predicted_SLG	0.6069
predicted_SO	1.2070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0570	0.0979	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0080	0.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.1600	3.2378	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.2180	0.2032	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7270	0.7149	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3600	0.3730	0.3672	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2840	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.4730	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2000	1.2430	1.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6070	0.6069	0.6069	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2960	1.2070	1.2470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	7
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2722

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.175	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.175	0.000	-0.175	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.950	3.000	1.050	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.667	-0.072	-0.467
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	1.000	-0.350	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	1.000	-0.050	-1.000
predicted_H	1.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.075	2.000	-0.075	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.750	-0.139	-0.550
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	0.000	-0.450	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.582	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.667	-0.230	-0.467
predicted_SO	0.975	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	1.000	1.025	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	1.230	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.582	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.025	-0.005
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.331	-0.019
predicted_H	1.226	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.312	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.000
predicted_R	0.573	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.537	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.582	0.000
predicted_SO	0.958	-0.017

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.078

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.6000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	2.000	9.000	0.3571	0.3864	0.7381	0.3571	0.0952	0.1905	0.0476	0.2143
season	0.20	40	-	158.000	43.000	7.000	6.000	18.000	20.000	14.000	39.000	0.2722	0.3391	0.4304	0.2722	0.0380	0.1139	0.0886	0.2468

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0220
predicted_AVG	0.3042
predicted_BB	0.3170
predicted_H	1.2240
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3140
predicted_OBP	0.3579
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.5350
predicted_SLG	0.5824
predicted_SO	0.9460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1750	0.1730	0.1738	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	4.0220	4.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3042	0.3041	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.3170	0.3306	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2300	1.2240	1.2265	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3140	0.3124	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3579	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6240	0.5729	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5350	0.5371	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5820	0.5824	0.5822	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	0.9460	0.9580	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.475	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.475	3.000	0.525	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.000	0.234	0.500
predicted_BB	0.325	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.325	1.000	-0.325	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	0.000	1.075	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.156	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.525	0.000	-0.525	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.112	0.500
predicted_SO	0.975	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	1.000	1.025	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.475	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.325	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.089
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.405	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.322	-0.004
predicted_H	0.776	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.246	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.330	-0.170
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	1.160	0.185

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.223 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.3684	0.3333	0.2000	0.0000	0.1333	0.1333	0.5333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.3714	0.2857	0.0000	0.1714	0.0571	0.3429
season	0.20	40	-	139.000	37.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	21.000	20.000	13.000	39.000	0.2662	0.3439	0.3885	0.2662	0.0216	0.1511	0.0935	0.2806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3030
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.3550
predicted_AVG	0.2436
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.2460
predicted_HR	0.0290
predicted_OBP	0.3517
predicted_R	0.2080
predicted_RBI	0.4910
predicted_SLG	0.3640
predicted_SO	1.2930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.3030	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0060	0.0139	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4750	3.3550	3.4051	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2436	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3250	0.3190	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8170	0.7765	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2460	0.2460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0290	0.0294	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3517	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2080	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4910	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3640	0.3640	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	1.2930	1.1601	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2780

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2778

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1830

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_3B	0.025	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.278	0.250	-0.278	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.425	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.425	0.000	0.575	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.075	0.000	-0.075	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.250	-0.165	-0.050
predicted_R	0.650	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.650	0.000	-0.650	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.250	-0.417	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.975	4.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.975	2.000	3.025	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.225	-
predicted_3B	0.025	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.425	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.650	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.975	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.032	0.007
predicted_AB	3.663	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.066
predicted_H	1.004	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.127	-
predicted_HR	0.061	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.617	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.148	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000
predicted_SO	1.011	0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	4.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.4167	0.2500	0.0278	0.0278	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	40	-	144.000	40.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	26.000	17.000	39.000	0.2778	0.3653	0.4167	0.2778	0.0208	0.0833	0.1181	0.2708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.7070
predicted_AVG	0.2791
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.1270
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3553
predicted_R	0.5940
predicted_RBI	0.1540
predicted_SLG	0.3752
predicted_SO	1.0360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2250	0.0970	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0250	0.0370	0.0320	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7070	3.6627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2791	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4250	0.3130	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.0350	1.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1270	0.1270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0620	0.0612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3553	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6500	0.5940	0.6172	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1540	0.1482	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3752	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9750	1.0360	1.0107	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	4
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.278

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.1600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1597

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.0960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.093	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.160	0.000	0.340	0.500
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	0.556	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.370	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.639	0.000	1.361	2.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.151	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.241	0.000	0.359	0.600
predicted_R	0.361	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.472	0.000	0.528	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.189	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	0.417	0.750
predicted_SO	1.389	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.389	2.000	-0.389	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.093	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.151	-
predicted_R	0.361	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.189	-
predicted_SO	1.389	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.061	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.093	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.092
predicted_H	0.378	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.111	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.151	-0.000
predicted_R	0.286	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.522	0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.093 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	10.000	0.0000	0.0455	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	17.000	0.0952	0.1522	0.2381	0.0952	0.0476	0.0952	0.0714	0.4048
season	0.20	36	-	144.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	16.000	50.000	0.1597	0.2407	0.3333	0.1597	0.0486	0.1181	0.1111	0.3472

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.1040
predicted_AVG	0.0934
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.3830
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1120
predicted_OBP	0.1508
predicted_R	0.2330
predicted_RBI	0.2780
predicted_SLG	0.1886
predicted_SO	1.6170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0500	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.1040	4.0607	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0930	0.0934	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.2860	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3700	0.3830	0.3776	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1120	0.1112	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1510	0.1508	0.1509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3610	0.2330	0.2862	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2780	0.2747	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1890	0.1886	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3890	1.6170	1.5222	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2037

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	4.000	0.516	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.000	0.046	0.250
predicted_BB	0.839	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.839	0.000	0.161	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.710	0.000	0.290	1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.400	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	0.032	0.400
predicted_R	0.613	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.613	0.000	-0.613	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.355	0.000	-0.355	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.479	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_SO	0.710	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.710	1.000	1.290	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.218	-
predicted_BB	0.839	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.613	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.479	-
predicted_SO	0.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.476	-0.008
predicted_AVG	0.218	0.000
predicted_BB	0.897	0.058
predicted_H	0.729	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.274	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.000
predicted_R	0.676	0.063
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.479	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.079

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.1875	0.4091	0.5625	0.1875	0.1250	0.2500	0.3750	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	6.000	0.2500	0.4130	0.5000	0.2500	0.0833	0.1389	0.2778	0.1667
season	0.20	31	-	108.000	22.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	19.000	26.000	22.000	0.2037	0.3676	0.3426	0.2037	0.0370	0.1018	0.2407	0.2037

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.4700
predicted_AVG	0.2185
predicted_BB	0.9400
predicted_H	0.7580
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.2840
predicted_OBP	0.3850
predicted_R	0.7230
predicted_RBI	0.5940
predicted_SLG	0.4786
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0460	0.0677	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.4700	3.4760	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2180	0.2185	0.2183	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8390	0.9400	0.8969	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.7580	0.7290	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.2840	0.2738	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3850	0.3850	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6130	0.7230	0.6761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5940	0.5710	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4790	0.4786	0.4788	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7100	0.7420	0.7284	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2466

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.4440

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.990	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.946	4.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.003	0.000
predicted_BB	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	1.000	0.027	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.250	0.094	0.150
predicted_R	0.324	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.514	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.250	-0.120	0.000
predicted_SO	0.703	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.703	0.000	0.297	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.990	-
predicted_AVG	0.348	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	1.390	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.514	-
predicted_SO	0.703	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.119	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.051	0.061
predicted_AVG	0.348	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.256	-0.068
predicted_H	1.410	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.473	0.149
predicted_RBI	0.649	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.514	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.348 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.990

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.6190	0.4286	0.0476	0.1429	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	15.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.3571	0.3721	0.5238	0.3571	0.0476	0.2143	0.0238	0.1429
season	0.20	37	-	146.000	36.000	3.000	5.000	20.000	12.000	12.000	26.000	0.2466	0.3063	0.3699	0.2466	0.0343	0.1370	0.0822	0.1781

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1470
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0940
predicted_AVG	0.3479
predicted_BB	0.2080
predicted_H	1.4240
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.1760
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.5800
predicted_RBI	0.6560
predicted_SLG	0.5139
predicted_SO	0.5880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.1470	0.1195	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9900	4.0940	4.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3480	0.3479	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.2080	0.2563	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3900	1.4240	1.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1760	0.1735	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.5800	0.4733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6560	0.6493	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5140	0.5139	0.5139	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7030	0.5880	0.6359	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Dominic Canzone (686527) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2794

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2790

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	1.000	1.167	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.292	1.000	-0.292	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.351	0.500	-0.351	-0.500
predicted_R	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.458	0.000	-0.458	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	0.708	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.708	0.000	0.292	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.292	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.437	-
predicted_SO	0.708	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	2.898	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	0.028
predicted_H	0.767	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.358	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.008
predicted_RBI	0.261	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.437	0.000
predicted_SO	0.827	0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3571	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.3571	0.4194	0.5714	0.3571	0.0357	0.1429	0.1071	0.3214
season	0.20	24	-	68.000	19.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	17.000	0.2794	0.3506	0.5147	0.2794	0.0441	0.1618	0.1029	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2430
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	2.9560
predicted_AVG	0.2799
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0720
predicted_OBP	0.3578
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.2790
predicted_SLG	0.4372
predicted_SO	0.9310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.2430	0.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	2.9560	2.8984	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2799	0.2799	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2920	0.3450	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8270	0.7675	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0720	0.0664	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3578	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.4430	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2790	0.2607	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4370	0.4372	0.4371	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7080	0.9310	0.8265	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	686527
playerID	686527
playerName	Dominic Canzone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SEA
teamID	25

Logan Gilbert (669302) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.625	4.000	-1.625	-3.000
predicted_IP	4.200	4.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.412	6.000	-1.212	-1.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.375	4.000	1.625	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	11.000	29.000	7.000	25.000	7.000	3.6220	1.3171	0.4024	1.0610	0.2561	0.9146	0.2561
last_10	0.35	8	44.000	21.000	47.000	10.000	43.000	8.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	1.0682	0.2273	0.9773	0.1818
season	0.20	8	44.000	21.000	47.000	10.000	43.000	8.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	1.0682	0.2273	0.9773	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5210
predicted_ER	2.2430
predicted_ERA	3.9762
predicted_H	5.1600
predicted_HR	0.9780
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.7930
predicted_WHIP	1.3160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.5210	0.7415	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.2430	1.6060	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9762	3.9762	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.1600	4.0530	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9780	0.9893	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.2000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.7930	5.9241	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3160	1.3160	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.2
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	7
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	72

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	4
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	89
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	669302
playerID	669302
playerName	Logan Gilbert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.758	1.000	0.442	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	6.000	0.000	3.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	1.3846	0.0000	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	2.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	0.9643	0.2143	0.5357
season	0.20	19	17.200	3.000	15.000	5.000	13.000	1.5283	1.1321	0.1698	0.8491	0.2830	0.7359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3890
predicted_ER	0.5040
predicted_ERA	3.2576
predicted_H	1.4180
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1550
predicted_WHIP	1.2991

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3890	0.1563	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5040	0.2025	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2576	3.2576	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4180	1.1679	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1550	0.4641	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2991	1.2991	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.894	1.000	0.206	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.562	2.000	1.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	10.000	3.000	16.000	2.000	8.0000	1.4444	0.8889	1.1111	0.3333	1.7778	0.2222
season	0.20	16	15.000	10.000	14.000	7.000	25.000	3.000	6.0000	1.4000	0.6667	0.9333	0.4667	1.6667	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_ER	0.6350
predicted_ERA	4.7305
predicted_H	1.1350
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4830
predicted_WHIP	1.3253

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4670	0.7946	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6350	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7305	4.7305	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1350	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1910	0.0736	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.4830	2.4155	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3253	1.3253	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cooper Criswell (681867) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.238	1.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.154	1.000	-1.154	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.3750	0.5625	0.3750	0.5625	0.0000	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.7742	0.0968
season	0.20	13	16.100	4.000	11.000	3.000	15.000	3.000	2.2041	0.8571	0.2449	0.6735	0.1837	0.9184	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2810
predicted_ER	0.4060
predicted_ERA	3.5581
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9850
predicted_WHIP	1.0906

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2810	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4060	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5581	3.5581	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8380	0.3300	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0563	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9850	0.3879	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0906	1.0906	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.20
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	681867
playerID	681867
playerName	Cooper Criswell
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

José A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 20

All-history rows before 20260510: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.845	1.000	-0.745	-0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000	1.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.100	1.000	11.000	2.000	9.000	0.7941	1.1471	0.0882	0.9706	0.1765	0.7941
season	0.20	19	19.000	4.000	22.000	3.000	16.000	1.8947	1.3158	0.2105	1.1579	0.1579	0.8421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1610
predicted_ER	0.2080
predicted_ERA	3.0240
predicted_H	0.5810
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6020
predicted_WHIP	1.1958

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1610	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2080	0.0851	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0240	3.0240	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5810	0.8285	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0184	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6020	0.2464	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1958	1.1958	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.89
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	José A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Home Team: CHW

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2806

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.861	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.861	4.000	0.139	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	1.000	-1.083	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.250	-0.353	-0.250
predicted_R	0.694	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.694	1.000	-0.694	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.500	-0.388	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.083	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	1.000	1.917	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.861	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.694	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.301	0.051
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.954	0.092
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.353	-0.091
predicted_H	1.192	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.732	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.297	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.492	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.301	0.218

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.861

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5714	0.3333	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	0.3250	0.3721	0.5000	0.3250	0.0250	0.0500	0.0750	0.4000
season	0.20	36	-	139.000	39.000	9.000	2.000	5.000	25.000	16.000	39.000	0.2806	0.3526	0.3885	0.2806	0.0144	0.0360	0.1151	0.2806

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0200
predicted_AVG	0.3078
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	1.2370
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3551
predicted_R	0.7600
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.4916
predicted_SO	1.4570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3370	0.3006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8610	4.0200	3.9535	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3078	0.3079	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.2870	0.3526	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2370	1.1923	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1320	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3551	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6940	0.7600	0.7324	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3090	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4916	0.4918	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.4570	1.3006	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Drew Romo (691011) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

System season_avg: 0.1500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.1500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	4.000	0.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.393	0.000	-0.393	0.000
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.170	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.035	0.035
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.058	0.201
predicted_AVG	0.170	0.000
predicted_BB	0.908	-0.092
predicted_H	0.483	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.333	-0.000
predicted_R	0.530	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.323	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.511	0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.158 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	0.0714	0.3500	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.4286	0.1429
last_10	0.35	7	-	20.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	0.1500	0.3929	0.6000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.3500	0.1500
season	0.20	7	-	20.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	0.1500	0.3929	0.6000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.3500	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3240
predicted_AVG	0.1703
predicted_BB	0.7870
predicted_H	0.5660
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3326
predicted_R	0.4750
predicted_RBI	0.3790
predicted_SLG	0.3792
predicted_SO	0.6180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0810	0.0350	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	3.3240	3.0585	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1700	0.1703	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7870	0.9081	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5660	0.4830	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.2000	0.1716	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3326	0.3328	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.4750	0.5296	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3790	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3792	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.6180	0.5106	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	691011
playerID	691011
playerName	Drew Romo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Randal Grichuk (545341) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 0

All-history rows before 20260510: 0

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.1900

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	2.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.667	0.333	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.402	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.318	0.018
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.069	0.269
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.124	0.024
predicted_H	0.716	0.106
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.327	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.402	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.952	-0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.5000	0.3125	0.1250	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571
season	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3410
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.4130
predicted_AVG	0.2496
predicted_BB	0.1550
predicted_H	0.8520
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.2851
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.3870
predicted_SLG	0.4016
predicted_SO	0.8900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.3410	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0031	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	3.4130	3.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2496	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.1550	0.1241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.8520	0.7162	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0550	0.0466	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2851	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.4230	0.3540	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3870	0.3269	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4020	0.4016	0.4018	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8900	0.9517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Jarred Kelenic (672284) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.369	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.500	-0.150	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	1.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.667	0.667
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.369	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.191	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.304	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.002
predicted_H	0.926	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.369	-0.000
predicted_R	0.108	0.108
predicted_RBI	0.308	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.186	0.186

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.290 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total BB	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.4000	0.4706	0.4000	0.4000	0.0667	0.1333
last_10	0.35	6	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3333	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111
season	0.20	6	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3333	0.3333	0.0556	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.4810
predicted_AVG	0.3036
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	1.0570
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_OBP	0.3686
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.3945
predicted_SO	0.4690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0990	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0080	0.0032	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.4810	3.1907	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3036	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3390	0.3354	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0570	0.9260	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0670	0.0567	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3690	0.3686	0.3688	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.2730	0.1082	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3520	0.3085	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3945	0.3948	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.4690	0.1860	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	672284
playerID	672284
playerName	Jarred Kelenic
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2256

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	3.000	-0.694	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.667	0.108	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	0.167	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_OBP	0.400	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.750	0.134	-0.250
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.778	2.000	-0.778	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	3.000	-0.583	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.618	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.474	2.667	-0.140	-2.333
predicted_SO	0.722	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.722	1.000	-0.722	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.750	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.420	-
predicted_OBP	0.400	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.618	-
predicted_SO	0.722	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.039
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.682	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.264	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.730	-0.020
predicted_H	0.974	-0.016
predicted_HBP	0.126	-
predicted_HR	0.415	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.400	-0.000
predicted_R	0.853	0.075
predicted_RBI	0.722	-0.008
predicted_SLG	0.618	0.000
predicted_SO	0.720	-0.002

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.111

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	0.2778	0.4348	0.7778	0.2778	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	8.000	0.2778	0.4222	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.2222
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	30.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	21.000	28.000	27.000	26.000	0.2256	0.3659	0.4737	0.2256	0.0677	0.1579	0.2030	0.1955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0450
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6470
predicted_AVG	0.2639
predicted_BB	0.7160
predicted_H	0.9630
predicted_HBP	0.1260
predicted_HR	0.4110
predicted_OBP	0.3997
predicted_R	0.9060
predicted_RBI	0.7160
predicted_SLG	0.6182
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0450	0.0724	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0070	0.0157	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.6470	3.6815	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2639	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7500	0.7160	0.7301	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	0.9630	0.9742	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1260	0.1260	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4200	0.4110	0.4147	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4000	0.3997	0.3998	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	0.9060	0.8528	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.7160	0.7218	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6180	0.6182	0.6181	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7220	0.7180	0.7197	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	2
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	8
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Tristan Peters (671976) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	1.000	-0.115	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.962	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.962	3.000	1.038	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.667	-0.273	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.808	2.000	-0.808	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.667	-0.333	-0.667
predicted_R	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.731	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.731	1.000	0.269	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.962	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.269	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.731	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	0.075
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.051	0.089
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.003
predicted_H	0.786	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.322	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.379	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.744	0.013

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.4000	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2963	0.3667	0.3704	0.2963	0.1482	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	26	-	77.000	21.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	19.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.3117	0.2727	0.0649	0.0909	0.2467

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1280
predicted_AVG	0.2696
predicted_BB	0.2630
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3281
predicted_R	0.3680
predicted_RBI	0.3220
predicted_SLG	0.3785
predicted_SO	0.7550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.2550	0.1904	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9620	3.1280	3.0514	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2696	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.2630	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8430	0.7863	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0270	0.0238	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3281	0.3281	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2690	0.3680	0.3223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3220	0.3026	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3785	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7310	0.7550	0.7439	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	671976
playerID	671976
playerName	Tristan Peters
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2246

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2220

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	0.784	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.730	4.000	0.270	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.250	0.025	0.000
predicted_BB	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	1.000	-0.270	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.250	-0.077	0.000
predicted_R	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.459	1.000	-0.459	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.757	2.000	-0.757	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	1.000	0.000	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.243	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.243	1.000	-1.243	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.378	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.296	-
predicted_R	0.459	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.495	-
predicted_SO	1.243	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.306	0.090
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.914	0.184
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.022
predicted_H	0.898	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.222	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.296	0.000
predicted_R	0.460	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.877	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.495	0.000
predicted_SO	1.255	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.230 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.5000	0.2273	0.0454	0.2727	0.0454	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2308	0.3182	0.5385	0.2308	0.0769	0.2308	0.1282	0.2821
season	0.20	37	-	138.000	31.000	8.000	10.000	28.000	17.000	14.000	46.000	0.2246	0.3270	0.5000	0.2246	0.0725	0.2029	0.1014	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3700
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0450
predicted_AVG	0.2307
predicted_BB	0.3400
predicted_H	0.9330
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.2310
predicted_OBP	0.2962
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.9110
predicted_SLG	0.4950
predicted_SO	1.2640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.3700	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	4.0450	3.9136	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2307	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3780	0.3400	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9330	0.8984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2310	0.2222	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4590	0.4600	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.9110	0.8772	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4950	0.4950	0.4950	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2430	1.2640	1.2552	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2615

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.4290

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.421	3.000	0.579	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.012	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.895	1.000	0.105	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.500	-0.130	-0.250
predicted_R	0.632	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	2.000	-0.632	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.400	0.333	-0.150	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.474	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.474	2.000	1.526	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.105	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.412	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.474	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.073	-0.032
predicted_AB	3.577	-0.073
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.027
predicted_H	1.108	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.370	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.000
predicted_R	0.704	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.468	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	0.566	0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4762	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	6.000	0.3529	0.4634	0.4412	0.3529	0.0000	0.1471	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	19	-	65.000	17.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	0.2615	0.3797	0.4000	0.2615	0.0154	0.1385	0.0923	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0460
predicted_AB	3.5130
predicted_AVG	0.3100
predicted_BB	0.2660
predicted_H	1.0890
predicted_HBP	0.3700
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.4124
predicted_R	0.7670
predicted_RBI	0.4580
predicted_SLG	0.3942
predicted_SO	0.6470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.0880	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1050	0.0460	0.0735	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.5130	3.5769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3100	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.2660	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.0890	1.1081	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.3700	0.3700	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0395	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4120	0.4124	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.7670	0.7041	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.4580	0.4683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3942	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4740	0.6470	0.5663	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Munetaka Murakami (808959) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2279

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.730	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	4.000	0.324	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.784	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.838	0.000	-0.838	0.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.405	0.000	-0.405	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.757	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.757	0.000	-0.757	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.784	0.000	-0.784	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.566	0.000	-0.566	0.000
predicted_SO	1.541	3.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.541	2.000	1.459	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.730	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.784	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.757	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.530	-
predicted_SO	1.541	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	0.064
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.803	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.642	-0.142
predicted_H	0.816	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.355	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.793	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.694	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	1.606	0.065

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.093

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.5500	0.2000	0.1000	0.1500	0.1000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	7.000	17.000	0.2105	0.3333	0.5526	0.2105	0.1053	0.2368	0.1842	0.4474
season	0.20	37	-	136.000	31.000	1.000	15.000	29.000	28.000	29.000	57.000	0.2279	0.3614	0.5662	0.2279	0.1103	0.2132	0.2132	0.4191

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.2148
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3580
predicted_OBP	0.3109
predicted_R	0.8190
predicted_RBI	0.7040
predicted_SLG	0.5301
predicted_SO	1.6520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0270	0.1360	0.0908	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7300	3.8550	3.8032	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2148	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7840	0.5410	0.6418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8280	0.8164	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3580	0.3547	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3109	0.3109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7570	0.8190	0.7933	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7040	0.6940	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5300	0.5301	0.5301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5410	1.6520	1.6060	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_SEA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	808959
playerID	808959
playerName	Munetaka Murakami
pos	IF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Davis Martin (663436) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	0.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.186	7.000	-2.986	-3.800
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.143	10.000	0.857	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	5.000	28.000	4.000	31.000	1.000	1.3636	0.9697	0.1515	0.8485	0.1212	0.9394	0.0303
last_10	0.35	7	44.000	8.000	37.000	8.000	43.000	2.000	1.6364	1.0227	0.1818	0.8409	0.1818	0.9773	0.0454
season	0.20	7	44.000	8.000	37.000	8.000	43.000	2.000	1.6364	1.0227	0.1818	0.8409	0.1818	0.9773	0.0454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2840
predicted_ER	1.5420
predicted_ERA	2.5834
predicted_H	4.7590
predicted_HR	0.3940
predicted_IP	5.1000
predicted_SO	5.1180
predicted_WHIP	1.1251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	1.2840	2.7128	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.5420	1.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5834	2.5834	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.7590	2.7816	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3940	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	5.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	5.1180	6.1080	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1251	1.1251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	4
SO	7
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.64
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	63
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	663436
playerID	663436
playerName	Davis Martin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-0.900	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6680
predicted_ER	0.8610
predicted_ERA	4.4985
predicted_H	1.6720
predicted_HR	0.2030
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5760
predicted_WHIP	1.3582

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6680	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.8610	0.9634	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4985	4.4985	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.6720	1.1770	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2030	0.0535	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5760	1.1517	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3582	1.3582	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.550	1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.100	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5230
predicted_ER	0.6740
predicted_ERA	4.6679
predicted_H	1.3090
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1840
predicted_WHIP	1.4094

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5230	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6740	0.9189	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6679	4.6679	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.3090	2.5794	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2080	0.0517	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1840	1.7970	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4094	1.4094	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Bryan Hudson (663542) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.817	1.000	0.183
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.0000	1.8000	0.0000	1.0000	0.8000	1.4000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	0.000	8.000	5.000	12.000	0.0000	1.3929	0.0000	0.8571	0.5357	1.2857
season	0.20	12	11.200	2.000	11.000	8.000	15.000	1.5429	1.6286	0.1714	0.9429	0.6857	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_ER	0.3300
predicted_ERA	2.9673
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0790
predicted_WHIP	1.4196

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4790	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3300	0.1192	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9673	2.9673	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9400	1.6170	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0880	0.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0790	1.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4196	1.4196	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260424_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	663542
playerID	663542
playerName	Bryan Hudson
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Jordan Hicks (663855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 2

All-history rows before 20260510: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	0.000	0.500	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.150	0.100	0.850	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	1.000	1.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000
season	0.20	2	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	27.0000	6.0000	3.0000	2.0000	4.0000	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5150
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	5.0711
predicted_H	0.9690
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9490
predicted_WHIP	1.5037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5150	0.8818	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.5560	1.6482	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0711	5.0711	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	0.9690	3.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1220	0.7861	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9490	1.7439	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5037	1.5037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	27.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	663855
playerID	663855
playerName	Jordan Hicks
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.100	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1630
predicted_ER	0.1760
predicted_ERA	3.3940
predicted_H	0.4240
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.1000
predicted_SO	0.4810
predicted_WHIP	1.2560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1630	0.0509	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1760	0.0550	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3940	3.3940	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4240	0.1325	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4810	0.8378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2560	1.2560	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

20260510_STL@SD

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.4392499999999999, "away_win_probability": 0.5607500000000001, "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 3 SD", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "STL 4 - 3 SD", "confidence": 0.5607500000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "STL 4 - 3 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "STL 5 - 2 SD", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: STL

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.3050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3050

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2730

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	4.000	-0.811	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.028	0.083
predicted_BB	0.486	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	0.514	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.162	1.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.500	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.115	0.250
predicted_R	0.811	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.811	1.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.730	0.000	-0.730	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.574	0.250	-0.241	0.083
predicted_SO	1.189	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	1.000	-1.189	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.811	-
predicted_AVG	0.288	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.080	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.406	-
predicted_R	0.811	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.289	0.073
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.656	-0.155
predicted_AVG	0.288	0.000
predicted_BB	0.616	0.130
predicted_H	1.046	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.118	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.406	0.000
predicted_R	0.733	-0.078
predicted_RBI	0.418	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.485	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.054	-0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.811

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4286	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000	0.3125	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.3514	0.4419	0.6216	0.3513	0.0541	0.2162	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	43.000	8.000	10.000	27.000	30.000	18.000	44.000	0.3050	0.3851	0.5745	0.3050	0.0709	0.1915	0.1277	0.3121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3410
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5450
predicted_AVG	0.2884
predicted_BB	0.7080
predicted_H	1.0220
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1170
predicted_OBP	0.4061
predicted_R	0.6780
predicted_RBI	0.4100
predicted_SLG	0.4848
predicted_SO	0.9580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.3410	0.2890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8110	3.5450	3.6558	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2880	0.2884	0.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.7080	0.6156	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0800	1.0220	1.0461	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1170	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4060	0.4061	0.4061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8110	0.6780	0.7334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4100	0.4183	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4848	0.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	0.9580	1.0542	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.305

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2695

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.5000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.282	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.282	1.000	-0.282	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.615	4.000	0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.500	-0.270	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.718	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.718	0.000	0.282	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.300	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	2.000	-0.974	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.200	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.500	-0.216	-0.300
predicted_R	0.564	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.462	1.000	-0.462	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.433	0.750	-0.433	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.821	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.821	1.000	0.179	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.282	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.351	-
predicted_BB	0.718	-
predicted_H	1.300	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.564	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.380	0.098
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.866	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.000
predicted_BB	0.531	-0.187
predicted_H	1.358	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.000
predicted_R	0.522	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.584	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.494	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	0.213

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.351 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.5714	0.4286	0.0000	0.1905	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	14.000	5.000	0.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.3500	0.4222	0.4750	0.3500	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.3250
season	0.20	39	-	141.000	38.000	11.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	28.000	32.000	0.2695	0.4157	0.4326	0.2695	0.0284	0.1277	0.1986	0.2270

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4490
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.3514
predicted_BB	0.4010
predicted_H	1.3990
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0380
predicted_OBP	0.4169
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.6000
predicted_SLG	0.4936
predicted_SO	1.1830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2820	0.4490	0.3804	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.9820	3.8661	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3510	0.3514	0.3512	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7180	0.4010	0.5313	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3000	1.3990	1.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0380	0.0388	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4169	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5640	0.4930	0.5222	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6000	0.5836	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4936	0.4938	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	1.1830	1.0342	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2258

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	3.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.226	0.333	0.024	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.500	-0.048	-0.250
predicted_R	0.382	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.382	0.000	0.618	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	0.000	1.382	2.000
predicted_SLG	0.413	1.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.355	0.333	0.645	0.667
predicted_SO	1.265	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.265	2.000	0.735	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.382	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.413	-
predicted_SO	1.265	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.083
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.619	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	0.029
predicted_H	0.920	0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.027
predicted_RBI	0.449	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.413	0.000
predicted_SO	1.386	0.121

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.4118	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	15.000	0.2432	0.3095	0.4595	0.2432	0.0541	0.1892	0.1081	0.4054
season	0.20	34	-	124.000	28.000	4.000	4.000	21.000	13.000	14.000	43.000	0.2258	0.2979	0.3548	0.2258	0.0323	0.1694	0.1129	0.3468

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2620
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5980
predicted_AVG	0.2596
predicted_BB	0.4620
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3407
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.4550
predicted_SLG	0.4135
predicted_SO	1.4750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.2620	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.5980	3.6188	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2596	0.2598	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.4620	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9340	0.9196	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0935	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3407	0.3408	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3820	0.3350	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4550	0.4486	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4130	0.4135	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2650	1.4750	1.3859	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.226

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Thomas Saggese (695336) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

System season_avg: 0.1510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1509

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1510

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.533	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.533	4.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.143	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.151	0.000	0.182	0.333
predicted_BB	0.267	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	0.733	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	0.000	0.467	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.177	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.189	0.000	0.145	0.333
predicted_SO	1.267	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.267	1.000	-0.267	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.533	-
predicted_AVG	0.143	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.177	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.212	-
predicted_SO	1.267	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.598	0.065
predicted_AVG	0.143	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	-0.057
predicted_H	0.481	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.035	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.177	-0.000
predicted_R	0.348	0.015
predicted_RBI	0.176	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.212	0.000
predicted_SO	1.283	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.010

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	9.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	13.000	0.1667	0.1892	0.2222	0.1667	0.0278	0.0278	0.3611
season	0.20	15	-	53.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	19.000	0.1509	0.2105	0.1887	0.1509	0.0189	0.0755	0.3585

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1250
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.6610
predicted_AVG	0.1426
predicted_BB	0.1550
predicted_H	0.5220
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.1768
predicted_R	0.3630
predicted_RBI	0.1910
predicted_SLG	0.2125
predicted_SO	1.2980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1250	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0025	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5330	3.6610	3.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1430	0.1426	0.1428	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.1550	0.2105	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5220	0.4814	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0355	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1770	0.1768	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3630	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1910	0.1756	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2120	0.2125	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2670	1.2980	1.2826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.151

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695336
playerID	695336
playerName	Thomas Saggese
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2381

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.132	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.132	0.000	-0.132	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.110	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.868	4.000	1.132	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	-0.038	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.526	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	1.000	0.079	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	-0.156	-0.200
predicted_R	0.789	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.789	1.000	0.211	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.526	0.000	-0.526	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.132	1.000	-0.132	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.312	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.250	-0.215	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.789	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.789	1.000	-0.789	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.110	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.789	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.312	-
predicted_SO	0.789	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.117	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.987	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	-0.025
predicted_H	0.891	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.079	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.671	-0.118
predicted_RBI	0.662	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.312	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.753	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.110

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.2105	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	8.000	0.2195	0.3043	0.3415	0.2195	0.0244	0.1463	0.0976	0.1951
season	0.20	38	-	147.000	35.000	5.000	7.000	20.000	30.000	20.000	30.000	0.2381	0.3559	0.4150	0.2381	0.0476	0.1361	0.1361	0.2041

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1060
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9020
predicted_AVG	0.2229
predicted_BB	0.4840
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.0780
predicted_OBP	0.3302
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.6490
predicted_SLG	0.3117
predicted_SO	0.7280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1320	0.1060	0.1167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1100	3.9020	3.9875	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.4840	0.5013	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	0.8700	0.8906	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0780	0.0788	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3302	0.3301	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7890	0.5890	0.6712	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.6490	0.6617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3120	0.3117	0.3118	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7890	0.7280	0.7531	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2685

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.027	4.000	0.973	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.600	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.000	0.332	0.600
predicted_BB	0.459	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.459	0.000	-0.459	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	3.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.081	0.000	1.919	3.000
predicted_HR	0.210	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	0.838	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.600	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.341	0.000	0.259	0.600
predicted_R	0.541	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.541	0.000	0.459	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	3.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.811	0.000	2.189	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.446	1.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.456	0.000	0.744	1.200
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	1.000	0.270	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.270	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.070	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.459	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.541	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.446	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.059	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.377	-0.082
predicted_H	0.960	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.211	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000
predicted_R	0.535	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.666	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.446	0.000
predicted_SO	0.934	0.204

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.070

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.3810	0.1905	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.5500	0.2750	0.0750	0.2500	0.1000	0.2500
season	0.20	37	-	149.000	40.000	10.000	6.000	30.000	20.000	17.000	27.000	0.2685	0.3413	0.4564	0.2685	0.0403	0.2013	0.1141	0.1812

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0510
predicted_AVG	0.2371
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.9600
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_OBP	0.2925
predicted_R	0.5300
predicted_RBI	0.6630
predicted_SLG	0.4463
predicted_SO	1.0790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2700	0.2090	0.2343	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0700	4.0510	4.0589	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2371	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4590	0.3190	0.3770	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9600	0.9600	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2110	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2925	0.2923	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5410	0.5300	0.5346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6630	0.6659	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4460	0.4463	0.4462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	1.0790	0.9344	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 25

All-history rows before 20260510: 25

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2118

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	2.000	-0.400	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.151	0.333	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.122	0.333
predicted_BB	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.440	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.720	0.000	0.280	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.204	0.500	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.239	0.500
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.667	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.314	0.667
predicted_SO	0.960	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.960	1.000	-0.960	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.151	-
predicted_BB	0.160	-
predicted_H	0.440	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.204	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.960	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.446	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.151	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.190	0.029
predicted_H	0.487	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.089	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.204	0.000
predicted_R	0.316	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.032	0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.4167	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	24.000	0.2118	0.2609	0.3529	0.2118	0.0353	0.0941	0.0471	0.2823

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.4840
predicted_AVG	0.1509
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	0.5260
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0970
predicted_OBP	0.2042
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.2608
predicted_SO	1.0910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0850	0.1009	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.4840	3.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1510	0.1509	0.1509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1600	0.2140	0.1895	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4400	0.5260	0.4870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0970	0.0893	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2040	0.2042	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.3120	0.3156	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2330	0.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2608	0.2609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9600	1.0910	1.0315	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3640

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	1.000	-0.172	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	3.000	0.276	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.667	-0.259	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	1.000	-0.172	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.966	2.000	-0.966	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.750	-0.289	-0.750
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.417	1.000	-0.417	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	0.000	-0.793	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.331	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.419	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	0.081
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.807	0.083
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.181	0.009
predicted_H	1.090	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.337	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.419	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.651	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.4737	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2683	0.2857	0.3659	0.2683	0.0000	0.0976	0.0244	0.1463
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	28.000	5.000	4.000	14.000	14.000	5.000	23.000	0.2593	0.2895	0.4167	0.2593	0.0370	0.1296	0.0463	0.2130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3160
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8710
predicted_AVG	0.2977
predicted_BB	0.1880
predicted_H	1.1530
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3314
predicted_R	0.4080
predicted_RBI	0.3580
predicted_SLG	0.4188
predicted_SO	0.5410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.3160	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.8710	3.8066	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2977	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.1880	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1530	1.0904	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0451	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3310	0.3314	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.4080	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3580	0.3370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4190	0.4188	0.4189	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.5410	0.6514	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2578

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1820

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	-0.971	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.331	0.000	-0.331	0.000
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.359	0.000
predicted_SO	0.879	3.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	2.000	2.147	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.879	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.094	0.033
predicted_AB	3.765	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.039
predicted_H	0.788	0.028
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.436	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.459	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.812	-0.067

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2000	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3171	0.3333	0.2500	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	16.000	16.000	11.000	29.000	0.2578	0.3217	0.3594	0.2578	0.0078	0.1250	0.0859	0.2266

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.1180
predicted_AB	3.6810
predicted_AVG	0.2195
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.8080
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.2725
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	0.4730
predicted_SLG	0.3280
predicted_SO	0.7630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.0880	0.1278	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.1180	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.6810	3.7648	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2195	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2650	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8080	0.7877	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2725	0.2727	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.4000	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.4730	0.4590	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3280	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8790	0.7630	0.8121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Kyle Leahy (681517) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	1.000	-0.714	1.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.886	5.100	-0.786	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.857	5.000	-0.857	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.200	13.000	31.000	8.000	22.000	5.000	4.7432	1.5811	0.5270	1.2568	0.3243	0.8919	0.2027
last_10	0.35	7	34.200	19.000	44.000	13.000	27.000	6.000	4.9327	1.6442	0.5481	1.2692	0.3750	0.7789	0.1731
season	0.20	7	34.200	19.000	44.000	13.000	27.000	6.000	4.9327	1.6442	0.5481	1.2692	0.3750	0.7789	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6820
predicted_ER	2.3840
predicted_ERA	4.5431
predicted_H	5.3220
predicted_HR	0.7920
predicted_IP	4.2000
predicted_SO	4.2710
predicted_WHIP	1.4832

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.6820	2.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.3840	2.1820	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5431	4.5431	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	5.3220	5.1526	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7920	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.2000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.2710	3.6024	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4832	1.4832	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	3
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	90

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.93
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681517
playerID	681517
playerName	Kyle Leahy
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.922	1.000	0.278	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	1.000	-1.111	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	4.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.9286	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	18	18.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	20.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.8333	0.0556	1.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_ER	0.7110
predicted_ERA	4.6067
predicted_H	1.5920
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.4360
predicted_WHIP	1.4300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3940	0.1591	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7110	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6067	4.6067	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5920	0.6427	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4360	0.5797	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4300	1.4300	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	1.000	1.176	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.8000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.100	4.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.8400	0.6000	1.0800	0.1200
season	0.20	17	16.100	6.000	10.000	9.000	14.000	1.000	3.3061	1.1633	0.3674	0.6122	0.5510	0.8571	0.0612

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4440
predicted_ER	0.3610
predicted_ERA	3.4022
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9300
predicted_WHIP	1.3415

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4440	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3610	0.1422	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.4022	3.4022	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8360	1.5416	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0950	0.6436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9300	1.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3415	1.3415	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Gordon Graceffo (700669) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.131	2.000	-0.131	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.100	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.8421	0.7895	0.3158	0.6316	0.1579	0.3158	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	12.100	3.000	9.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	2.1892	0.8108	0.2432	0.7297	0.0811	0.4054	0.0811
season	0.20	16	20.200	4.000	11.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.5323	0.3387	0.4839	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3290
predicted_ER	0.4330
predicted_ERA	3.3854
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.8030
predicted_WHIP	1.0943

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3290	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4330	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3854	3.3854	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9300	0.3888	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0577	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8030	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0943	1.0943	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.74
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	700669
playerID	700669
playerName	Gordon Graceffo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.806	1.000	0.194	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.3846	0.2308	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	9.000	3.000	7.0000	1.4444	0.7778	1.0000	0.4444	1.0000	0.3333
season	0.20	18	18.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	14.000	3.000	3.5000	1.2222	0.3889	0.8333	0.3889	0.7778	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_ER	0.4610
predicted_ERA	4.1520
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	1.3451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4510	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4610	0.1861	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1520	4.1520	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8940	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1810	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0300	0.4158	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3451	1.3451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.733	1.000	0.267	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-1.167	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	0.9231	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	5.000	7.000	8.000	12.000	0.000	5.1923	1.7308	0.5769	0.8077	0.9231	1.3846	0.0000
season	0.20	18	16.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	21.000	1.000	6.7500	1.9375	0.7500	1.1250	0.8125	1.3125	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5450
predicted_ER	0.5030
predicted_ERA	4.5253
predicted_H	0.8940
predicted_HR	0.0840
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0380
predicted_WHIP	1.4383

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5450	0.8218	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5030	0.1970	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5253	4.5253	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8940	0.9585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0840	0.0329	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0380	0.4066	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4383	1.4383	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Home Team: SD

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2555

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.703	2.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.703	4.000	-1.703	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.000	-0.255	0.000
predicted_BB	0.432	2.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.432	0.000	1.568	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	0.000	-0.946	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.167	0.500
predicted_R	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.432	0.000	-0.432	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.568	0.000	-0.568	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.000	-0.401	0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.676	1.000	-0.676	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.703	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.432	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.432	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.676	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.655	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.196	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.362	-0.070
predicted_H	0.705	0.005
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.382	-0.050
predicted_RBI	0.543	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.794	0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.1714	0.2564	0.3429	0.1714	0.0571	0.1429	0.1143	0.3143
season	0.20	37	-	137.000	35.000	2.000	6.000	21.000	16.000	16.000	25.000	0.2555	0.3333	0.4015	0.2555	0.0438	0.1533	0.1168	0.1825

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0370
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6210
predicted_AVG	0.1958
predicted_BB	0.3120
predicted_H	0.7090
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.5460
predicted_SLG	0.3579
predicted_SO	0.8800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0540	0.0370	0.0441	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7030	3.6210	3.6554	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1958	0.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4320	0.3120	0.3623	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7090	0.7052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1820	0.1812	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4320	0.3450	0.3815	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5460	0.5435	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3579	0.3579	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6760	0.8800	0.7945	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2020

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.536	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.536	4.000	0.464	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.048	0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.255	0.000	-0.005	0.250
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.321	0.000	-0.321	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.334	0.500	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.374	0.000	0.126	0.500
predicted_SO	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.536	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.334	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.114
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.522	-0.014
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	0.003
predicted_H	0.659	-0.001
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000
predicted_R	0.373	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.302	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.838	-0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.186 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1471	0.2162	0.2353	0.1471	0.0294	0.0882	0.0588	0.2353
season	0.20	28	-	99.000	20.000	8.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	6.000	24.000	0.2020	0.2547	0.3737	0.2020	0.0303	0.0909	0.0606	0.2424

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0810
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.5100
predicted_AVG	0.1876
predicted_BB	0.2200
predicted_H	0.6580
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2443
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.3040
predicted_SLG	0.3338
predicted_SO	0.8220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.0810	0.1719	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5360	3.5100	3.5215	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2200	0.2173	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.6580	0.6589	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2443	0.2442	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3860	0.3731	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3040	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8220	0.8375	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.202

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3021

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.269	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.269	0.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	3.000	0.308	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.249	0.500	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.198	0.500
predicted_BB	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.115	0.000	0.885	2.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.170	0.500
predicted_R	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	-0.346	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.750	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.000	0.271	0.750
predicted_SO	0.654	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.654	0.000	-0.654	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.249	-
predicted_BB	0.115	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.431	-
predicted_SO	0.654	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.096	0.019
predicted_AB	3.728	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.249	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.113	-0.002
predicted_H	0.892	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.000
predicted_R	0.345	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.359	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.631	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.3684	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2703	0.2895	0.5135	0.2703	0.0541	0.1351	0.0270	0.1081
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	29.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	3.000	17.000	0.3021	0.3300	0.4792	0.3021	0.0208	0.1042	0.0312	0.1771

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.1110
predicted_AB	3.7570
predicted_AVG	0.2487
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	0.9340
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2724
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.3740
predicted_SLG	0.4311
predicted_SO	0.6120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2690	0.1790	0.2193	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.1110	0.0958	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.7570	3.7279	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2490	0.2487	0.2488	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1150	0.1110	0.1128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9340	0.8919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0950	0.0928	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2724	0.2722	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.3450	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3740	0.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4310	0.4311	0.4311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6540	0.6120	0.6308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Rodolfo Durán (660710) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 1

All-history rows before 20260510: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2452

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.500	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	1.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.250	1.250
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.279	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.043	0.043
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.194	0.194
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.068	0.068
predicted_H	0.647	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.028	-
predicted_HR	0.088	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.279	0.000
predicted_R	0.117	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.333	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.203	0.203

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000
season	0.20	1	-	3.000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.7280
predicted_AVG	0.2229
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.8310
predicted_HBP	0.0280
predicted_HR	0.1090
predicted_OBP	0.2790
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.4250
predicted_SLG	0.3608
predicted_SO	0.7620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.1610	0.0428	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0130	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.7280	3.1936	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2229	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2550	0.0678	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.8310	0.6467	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0280	0.0280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1090	0.0877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.4420	0.1175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.4250	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3608	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7620	0.2026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	660710
playerID	660710
playerName	Rodolfo Durán
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2482

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3330

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.135	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.135	0.000	-0.135	0.000
predicted_3B	0.027	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_AB	3.880	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.811	4.000	0.189	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.002	0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.405	0.000	0.595	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.946	1.000	0.054	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.400	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.250	0.081	0.150
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.378	2.000	-0.378	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.250	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SO	1.081	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	2.000	-1.081	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-
predicted_3B	0.027	-
predicted_AB	3.880	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.405	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.013
predicted_3B	0.033	0.006
predicted_AB	3.756	-0.124
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.313	-0.092
predicted_H	0.863	-0.027
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.380	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.387	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	0.984	-0.097

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.880

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2564	0.3056	0.2222	0.0833	0.0556	0.2778
season	0.20	37	-	141.000	35.000	5.000	1.000	14.000	14.000	15.000	40.000	0.2482	0.3187	0.2979	0.2482	0.0993	0.1064	0.2837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2302
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.8440
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.2774
predicted_R	0.3810
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.3082
predicted_SO	0.9140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1350	0.1570	0.1478	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0270	0.0370	0.0328	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8800	3.6670	3.7558	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2302	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4050	0.2470	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.8440	0.8632	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2774	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.3810	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3780	0.3872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3082	0.3081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	0.9140	0.9836	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.216	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.216	0.000	-0.216	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.210	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.973	4.000	1.027	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.000	-0.024	0.200
predicted_BB	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.892	0.000	0.108	1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.000	-0.087	0.200
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.595	0.000	-0.595	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.000	-0.161	0.200
predicted_SO	1.081	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.081	2.000	0.919	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.216	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.210	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.324	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.369	-
predicted_SO	1.081	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.034
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.050	-0.160
predicted_AVG	0.247	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.009
predicted_H	1.000	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.069	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.492	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.407	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.369	0.000
predicted_SO	1.115	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.210

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	10.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.3846	0.2564	0.0256	0.0769	0.0769	0.2564
season	0.20	37	-	147.000	33.000	8.000	4.000	18.000	22.000	12.000	40.000	0.2245	0.2875	0.3605	0.2245	0.0272	0.1225	0.0816	0.2721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.9350
predicted_AVG	0.2468
predicted_BB	0.3390
predicted_H	0.9710
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.3087
predicted_R	0.4190
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.3694
predicted_SO	1.1390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2160	0.2740	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2100	3.9350	4.0496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2468	0.2469	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3240	0.3390	0.3327	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	0.9710	0.9998	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0680	0.0688	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3087	0.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.4190	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.3970	0.4066	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3690	0.3694	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0810	1.1390	1.1148	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Ty France (664034) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.412	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.412	3.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.333	-0.026	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	0.059	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.333	-0.061	-0.083
predicted_R	0.529	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.552	1.333	-0.302	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.412	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.412	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.450	-
predicted_SO	0.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.048	-0.011
predicted_AB	3.505	0.093
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.007
predicted_H	0.775	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.059
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.450	0.000
predicted_SO	0.510	0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.2647	0.2857	0.6176	0.2647	0.0882	0.2353	0.0294	0.1177
season	0.20	17	-	58.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	2.000	7.000	0.2759	0.3115	0.5517	0.2759	0.0690	0.1552	0.0345	0.1207

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0380
predicted_AB	3.5940
predicted_AVG	0.2302
predicted_BB	0.1310
predicted_H	0.8270
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.2060
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.4140
predicted_RBI	0.4820
predicted_SLG	0.4502
predicted_SO	0.6040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0980	0.1078	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0380	0.0483	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4120	3.5940	3.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2302	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.1310	0.1246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8270	0.7746	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2060	0.1933	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.4140	0.4703	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4820	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4500	0.4502	0.4501	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4120	0.6040	0.5101	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	664034
playerID	664034
playerName	Ty France
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2380

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.568	4.000	0.432	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.124	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	-0.197	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.568	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.568	0.000	0.432	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.027	0.000	-0.027	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.703	1.000	-0.703	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.162	1.000	-0.162	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.250	-0.103	-0.050
predicted_R	0.595	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.595	1.000	-0.595	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.514	1.000	-0.514	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.919	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.919	2.000	0.081	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.124	-
predicted_BB	0.568	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.595	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.284	-
predicted_SO	0.919	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.677	0.077
predicted_AVG	0.124	0.000
predicted_BB	0.477	-0.091
predicted_H	0.458	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.176	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.041
predicted_RBI	0.325	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.022	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.0526	0.1429	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.1081	0.1951	0.2703	0.1081	0.0541	0.0811	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.20	37	-	132.000	26.000	4.000	6.000	19.000	22.000	21.000	34.000	0.1970	0.3032	0.3636	0.1970	0.0454	0.1439	0.1591	0.2576

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0480
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7320
predicted_AVG	0.1243
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.4640
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.2117
predicted_R	0.5240
predicted_RBI	0.3290
predicted_SLG	0.2839
predicted_SO	1.0960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.0480	0.0731	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.7320	3.6768	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1240	0.1243	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5680	0.4110	0.4767	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.4640	0.4581	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1810	0.1764	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2117	0.2118	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5950	0.5240	0.5537	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3290	0.3252	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2840	0.2839	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9190	1.0960	1.0219	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 4

All-history rows before 20260510: 4

System season_avg: 0.1820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1818

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.291	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.333	-0.250	-0.333
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.291	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.004	0.004
predicted_AB	3.011	0.261
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.260	0.010
predicted_H	0.635	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.291	-0.000
predicted_R	0.697	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.394	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2727	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2727	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.1818	0.2500	0.2727	0.1818	0.1818	0.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0100
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.2271
predicted_BB	0.2790
predicted_H	0.7950
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.2907
predicted_R	0.5990
predicted_RBI	0.4950
predicted_SLG	0.3614
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2090	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0100	0.0035	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	3.5010	3.0115	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2271	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2790	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7950	0.6353	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0800	0.0670	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2910	0.2907	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5990	0.6974	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4950	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3614	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8350	0.7796	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.182

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	823550
playerID	823550
playerName	Sung-Mun Song
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SD
teamID	23

Walker Buehler (621111) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	4.000	-0.714	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.100	5.100	0.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.143	5.000	0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.200	12.000	26.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	4.5634	1.3944	0.5070	1.0986	0.2958	0.9296	0.0423
last_10	0.35	7	30.100	19.000	34.000	12.000	29.000	2.000	5.6374	1.5165	0.6264	1.1209	0.3956	0.9560	0.0659
season	0.20	7	30.100	19.000	34.000	12.000	29.000	2.000	5.6374	1.5165	0.6264	1.1209	0.3956	0.9560	0.0659

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5520
predicted_ER	2.2710
predicted_ERA	4.5607
predicted_H	4.6430
predicted_HR	0.3650
predicted_IP	4.1000
predicted_SO	4.2380
predicted_WHIP	1.3824

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.5520	1.7877	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2710	2.1284	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5607	4.5607	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.6430	3.7787	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3650	0.1730	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	4.1000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.2380	4.6389	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3824	1.3824	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	88

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	5.64
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	621111
playerID	621111
playerName	Walker Buehler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.024	0.200	0.076	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.529	1.000	-1.529	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	11.000	1.000	5.1429	1.0000	0.5714	0.7143	0.2857	1.5714	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	13.000	5.000	7.000	4.000	20.000	2.000	3.4615	0.8462	0.3846	0.5385	0.3077	1.5385	0.1538
season	0.20	17	20.200	13.000	22.000	5.000	26.000	2.000	5.6613	1.3065	0.6290	1.0645	0.2419	1.2581	0.0968

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4520
predicted_ER	0.6530
predicted_ERA	4.4067
predicted_H	1.1240
predicted_HR	0.1770
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6030
predicted_WHIP	1.1819

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4520	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6530	0.2730	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4067	4.4067	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1240	1.0518	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1770	0.0740	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6030	0.6701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1819	1.1819	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.66
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 18

All-history rows before 20260510: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	1.889	2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.011	1.100	0.089	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.111	4.000	-1.111	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	2.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	0.7500	0.5625	2.0625
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	1.7419	0.9677	0.1935	0.5806	0.3871	1.7419
season	0.20	18	18.200	2.000	7.000	5.000	38.000	0.9643	0.6429	0.1071	0.3750	0.2679	2.0357

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_ER	0.4500
predicted_ERA	3.3999
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HR	0.0880
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.6430
predicted_WHIP	1.2113

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4870	0.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4500	1.3685	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3999	3.3999	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9560	1.5746	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0880	0.6284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6430	1.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2113	1.2113	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.96
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	1.000	0.750
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.963	1.000	0.037
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	2.000	1.125

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.200	1.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.5294	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	2.6129	1.0645	0.2903	0.6774	0.3871	0.5806
season	0.20	16	18.200	4.000	15.000	5.000	14.000	1.9286	1.0714	0.2143	0.8036	0.2679	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3440
predicted_ER	0.3740
predicted_ERA	3.2695
predicted_H	0.8340
predicted_HR	0.0760
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7910
predicted_WHIP	1.1460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3440	0.1402	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3740	0.7449	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2695	3.2695	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8340	0.9324	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0760	0.0310	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7910	1.5074	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1460	1.1460	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.869	1.000	0.131	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.8000	1.0000	0.2000	0.6000	0.4000	0.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	2.000	7.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	1.7419	0.8710	0.1935	0.6774	0.1935	0.4839	0.0968
season	0.20	13	12.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	1.000	1.5000	0.8333	0.1667	0.5833	0.2500	0.4167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_ER	0.3780
predicted_ERA	3.3992
predicted_H	0.8390
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.7890
predicted_WHIP	1.1948

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3560	0.7656	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3780	0.7736	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3992	3.3992	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8390	1.5775	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1330	0.6845	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7890	0.9232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1948	1.1948	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	7
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jeremiah Estrada (669093) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 10

All-history rows before 20260510: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	1.000	0.050
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	1.000	-0.400

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.6667	0.3333	1.1667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	10.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	4.2188	1.0312	0.4688	0.5625	0.4688	1.3125	0.0938
season	0.20	10	10.200	5.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	4.2188	1.0312	0.4688	0.5625	0.4688	1.3125	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4080
predicted_ER	0.4400
predicted_ERA	3.7504
predicted_H	0.8930
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0980
predicted_WHIP	1.2324

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4080	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4400	0.1554	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7504	3.7504	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8930	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1380	0.0488	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0980	1.0346	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2324	1.2324	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.22
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_STL@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669093
playerID	669093
playerName	Jeremiah Estrada
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

20260510_TB@BOS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "TB 1 - 3 BOS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TB 1 - 3 BOS", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TB 1 - 3 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TB 1 - 4 BOS", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: TB

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2908

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2910

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	4.300	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	3.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.000	-0.041	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.171	0.000	-0.171	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	-0.076	0.250
predicted_SO	0.457	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.457	1.000	0.543	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	4.300	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.270	-
predicted_SO	0.457	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.050	0.021
predicted_3B	0.031	-0.026
predicted_AB	4.093	-0.207
predicted_AVG	0.232	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.149	-0.051
predicted_H	0.950	-0.050
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.257	-0.013
predicted_SLG	0.270	0.000
predicted_SO	0.595	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.221 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.300

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0500	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2308	0.2439	0.2564	0.2308	0.0513	0.0256	0.1538
season	0.20	35	-	141.000	41.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	16.000	0.2908	0.3200	0.3262	0.2908	0.0496	0.0496	0.1135

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9420
predicted_AVG	0.2317
predicted_BB	0.1120
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.2506
predicted_R	0.4950
predicted_RBI	0.2480
predicted_SLG	0.2703
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0650	0.0499	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0309	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3000	3.9420	4.0925	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2317	0.2318	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1120	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9130	0.9496	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2506	0.2508	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4950	0.4673	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2480	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2700	0.2703	0.2702	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4570	0.6950	0.5949	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Ryan Vilade (668723) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

System season_avg: 0.2820

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2821

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.250	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.282	0.000	-0.032	0.250
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	-0.083	0.250
predicted_R	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.250	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.385	0.000	-0.135	0.250
predicted_SO	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.615	1.000	0.385	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.615	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.124	0.124
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.246	0.015
predicted_H	0.744	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.000
predicted_R	0.393	0.008
predicted_RBI	0.636	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.647	0.032

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1429	0.2000	0.3571	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.4828	0.3448	0.0345	0.2759	0.1035	0.1724
season	0.20	13	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.3846	0.2821	0.0256	0.2051	0.0769	0.2051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.2610
predicted_AVG	0.2430
predicted_BB	0.2620
predicted_H	0.7920
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3022
predicted_R	0.4020
predicted_RBI	0.6760
predicted_SLG	0.4025
predicted_SO	0.6820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0970	0.0865	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0050	0.0024	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.2610	3.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2620	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.7920	0.7436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1285	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3022	0.3021	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.4020	0.3931	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6760	0.6360	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4025	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6150	0.6820	0.6468	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.282

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	668723
playerID	668723
playerName	Ryan Vilade
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Fortes (663743) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 24

All-history rows before 20260510: 24

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.6000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	3.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.667	-0.293	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.667	-0.310	-0.667
predicted_R	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.390	0.667	-0.390	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.542	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.542	1.000	0.458	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.250	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.390	-
predicted_SO	0.542	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.060
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.303	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.000
predicted_BB	0.035	0.035
predicted_H	1.022	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.264	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.168	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.390	0.000
predicted_SO	0.534	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.0000	0.0333	0.1333
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2927	0.3095	0.3902	0.2927	0.0122	0.0854	0.1585

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.2060
predicted_AVG	0.3272
predicted_BB	0.0640
predicted_H	1.0490
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.3459
predicted_R	0.2760
predicted_RBI	0.1740
predicted_SLG	0.3900
predicted_SO	0.5270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.0960	0.1477	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.2060	3.3033	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3272	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0640	0.0345	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.0490	1.0218	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0316	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3459	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2500	0.2760	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1740	0.1675	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3900	0.3900	0.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5420	0.5270	0.5339	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	1
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663743
playerID	663743
playerName	Nick Fortes
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 36

All-history rows before 20260510: 36

System season_avg: 0.3160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3162

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.316	0.000	0.350	0.667
predicted_BB	0.361	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	0.000	0.639	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.194	0.000	0.806	2.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.250	0.353	0.500
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	0.000	-0.639	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.377	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	0.196	0.667
predicted_SO	0.556	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	3.000	-0.556	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.301	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.377	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.134	0.023
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.737	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.266	-0.095
predicted_H	0.923	-0.007
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.102	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.000
predicted_R	0.465	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.486	-0.004
predicted_SLG	0.377	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.644	0.088

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2105	0.2381	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	6.000	0.2571	0.3250	0.4571	0.2571	0.0571	0.1429	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	36	-	136.000	43.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	23.000	20.000	13.000	20.000	0.3162	0.3974	0.4706	0.3162	0.0368	0.1691	0.0956	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.2475
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	0.9180
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3014
predicted_R	0.3990
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.3765
predicted_SO	0.7070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1510	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.7080	3.7373	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2475	0.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.1980	0.2662	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	0.9180	0.9230	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1040	0.1023	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3010	0.3014	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.3990	0.4646	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.4830	0.4859	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3770	0.3765	0.3767	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.7070	0.6439	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.316

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 27

All-history rows before 20260510: 27

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2444

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.462	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.000	-0.244	0.000
predicted_BB	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.407	0.000	-0.407	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.815	0.000	-0.815	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.000	-0.327	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.322	0.000	-0.322	0.000
predicted_SO	0.808	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	1.222	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.192	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.462	-
predicted_AVG	0.292	-
predicted_BB	0.385	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.355	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.140	-0.052
predicted_3B	0.037	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.552	0.090
predicted_AVG	0.292	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.363	-0.022
predicted_H	1.023	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.355	0.000
predicted_R	0.504	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.407	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.119

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.55), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3333	0.3333	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	5.000	0.3056	0.3590	0.3889	0.3056	0.1111	0.0833	0.1389
season	0.20	26	-	90.000	22.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	10.000	21.000	0.2444	0.3200	0.3222	0.2444	0.1222	0.1111	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0980
predicted_3B	0.0370
predicted_AB	3.6250
predicted_AVG	0.2918
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_H	1.0580
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.3552
predicted_R	0.5070
predicted_RBI	0.4210
predicted_SLG	0.3612
predicted_SO	0.5930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1920	0.0980	0.1401	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0370	0.0374	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4620	3.6250	3.5521	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2920	0.2918	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3850	0.3460	0.3635	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0580	1.0231	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0270	0.0283	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3550	0.3552	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5070	0.5039	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4210	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3612	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	0.5930	0.6892	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.1300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1296

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1300

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.724	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.724	4.000	-0.724	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.130	0.250	0.204	0.083
predicted_BB	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.483	1.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.194	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.188	0.250	0.312	0.250
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.345	1.000	-0.345	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.181	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.222	0.250	0.111	0.083
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	0.000	-0.793	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.724	-
predicted_AVG	0.135	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.194	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.181	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.657	-0.067
predicted_AVG	0.135	0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	0.023
predicted_H	0.475	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.194	0.000
predicted_R	0.215	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.181	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.128 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0882	0.1622	0.0882	0.0882	0.0000	0.0588	0.0882	0.1765
season	0.20	29	-	108.000	14.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	6.000	23.000	0.1296	0.1880	0.2222	0.1296	0.0185	0.0926	0.0556	0.2130

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.6050
predicted_AVG	0.1350
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.4870
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.1943
predicted_R	0.1680
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.1807
predicted_SO	0.6080

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0460	0.0560	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0080	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7240	3.6050	3.6569	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1350	0.1350	0.1350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.2480	0.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.4870	0.4752	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1940	0.1943	0.1942	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.1680	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3480	0.3401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1810	0.1807	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.6080	0.6887	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2535

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.081	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.081	0.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.838	4.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.541	0.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.541	0.000	-0.541	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.973	0.000	-0.973	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.270	0.000	-0.270	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.622	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.730	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.730	0.000	0.270	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.930	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.541	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.622	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.730	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.057	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.744	-0.186
predicted_AVG	0.214	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.562	0.021
predicted_H	0.800	-0.040
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.208	-0.012
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.603	-0.019
predicted_RBI	0.409	-0.021
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.699	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.204 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.930

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2857	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3659	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0882	0.2059	0.2647
season	0.20	37	-	142.000	36.000	3.000	10.000	18.000	23.000	20.000	27.000	0.2535	0.3436	0.4859	0.2535	0.0704	0.1268	0.1409	0.1901

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.2138
predicted_BB	0.5770
predicted_H	0.7720
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.5890
predicted_RBI	0.3940
predicted_SLG	0.3922
predicted_SO	0.6770

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0810	0.0400	0.0570	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9300	3.6120	3.7442	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2138	0.2139	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5410	0.5770	0.5620	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.7720	0.8003	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2000	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6220	0.5890	0.6027	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.3940	0.4090	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3922	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7300	0.6770	0.6990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonny DeLuca (676356) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	4.000	0.368	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.000	-0.011	0.250
predicted_BB	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.947	0.000	0.053	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.051	0.250
predicted_R	0.632	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.632	0.000	0.368	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.362	0.000	-0.112	0.250
predicted_SO	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	2.000	0.316	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.211	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.632	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.024
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.728	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.008
predicted_H	0.943	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.042	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.634	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.262	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.253 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.2973	0.2432	0.0000	0.0270	0.0541	0.1892
season	0.20	19	-	69.000	18.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	12.000	4.000	13.000	0.2609	0.3014	0.3623	0.2609	0.0145	0.1014	0.0580	0.1884

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2570
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.8150
predicted_AVG	0.2644
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_H	1.0090
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.2810
predicted_SLG	0.3683
predicted_SO	0.8350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2570	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6320	3.8150	3.7284	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2644	0.2642	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2110	0.2270	0.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	1.0090	0.9432	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0440	0.0421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6320	0.6360	0.6341	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2810	0.2616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3683	0.3682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.8350	0.7636	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676356
playerID	676356
playerName	Jonny DeLuca
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Taylor Walls (670764) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 26

All-history rows before 20260510: 26

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2025

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.1670

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.038	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.038	3.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.333	-0.203	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	-0.615	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.333	-0.308	-0.333
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.333	-0.241	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.923	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.923	2.000	1.077	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.038	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.423	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.923	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.099	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.085	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.208	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	0.030
predicted_H	0.599	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.333	-0.090
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.082

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.194 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2941	0.2000	0.2000	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	8.000	0.1852	0.3529	0.2222	0.1852	0.0741	0.2593	0.2963
season	0.20	26	-	79.000	16.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	11.000	24.000	0.2025	0.3077	0.2405	0.2025	0.0760	0.1392	0.3038

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0850
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.1250
predicted_AVG	0.2077
predicted_BB	0.4780
predicted_H	0.6490
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.0250
predicted_OBP	0.3148
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.2607
predicted_SO	0.7720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0850	0.0986	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0016	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0380	3.1250	3.0854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2077	0.2078	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4230	0.4780	0.4530	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6490	0.5994	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0250	0.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3148	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.2580	0.3330	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3350	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2607	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9230	0.7720	0.8407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	670764
playerID	670764
playerName	Taylor Walls
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TB
teamID	27

Nick Martinez (607259) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.143	1.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_IP	3.100	3.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.900	5.000	-2.800	-1.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	5.000	26.000	9.000	21.000	1.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	0.8667	0.3000	0.7000	0.0333
last_10	0.35	7	42.000	8.000	33.000	10.000	28.000	3.000	1.7143	1.0238	0.1905	0.7857	0.2381	0.6667	0.0714
season	0.20	7	42.000	8.000	33.000	10.000	28.000	3.000	1.7143	1.0238	0.1905	0.7857	0.2381	0.6667	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.5960
predicted_ER	1.4420
predicted_ERA	2.6548
predicted_H	4.3340
predicted_HR	0.3830
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	3.9280
predicted_WHIP	1.2129

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.5960	1.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.4420	1.7355	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6548	2.6548	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	4.3340	4.1583	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.3830	1.2336	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.1000	5.0000	4.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.9280	2.9138	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2129	1.2129	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.1
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	2
HR	2
BF	17
Pitches	71

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	21
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.71
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	71
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	51
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	607259
playerID	607259
playerName	Nick Martinez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	1.000	0.213	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	1.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0385	0.6923	0.1154	0.4615	0.2308	1.0385	0.0000
season	0.20	16	14.200	4.000	9.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6136	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3480
predicted_ER	0.3990
predicted_ERA	2.9679
predicted_H	0.9390
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2240
predicted_WHIP	1.0631

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3480	0.7502	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3990	0.7698	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9679	2.9679	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9390	1.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2240	0.4689	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0631	1.0631	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.219	1.000	-0.119	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.200	0.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7714	0.0000	0.5143	0.2571	0.7714	0.0000
season	0.20	16	20.200	6.000	19.000	8.000	16.000	1.000	2.6129	1.3065	0.2903	0.9194	0.3871	0.7742	0.0484

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_ER	0.3570
predicted_ERA	2.5416
predicted_H	0.9130
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1660
predicted_WHIP	1.0483

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4140	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3570	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5416	2.5416	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9130	0.3817	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0950	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1660	1.0694	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0483	1.0483	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.944	1.000	0.156	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.250	1.000	-0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.2000	0.0000	0.6000	0.6000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	7.000	12.000	1.000	3.2727	1.4545	0.3636	0.8182	0.6364	1.0909	0.0909
season	0.20	15	17.200	5.000	12.000	7.000	20.000	1.000	2.5472	1.0755	0.2830	0.6793	0.3962	1.1321	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5650
predicted_ER	0.4280
predicted_ERA	3.1502
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HR	0.1140
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1780
predicted_WHIP	1.3000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5650	0.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4280	0.1720	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1502	3.1502	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0260	0.4122	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1140	0.0458	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1780	1.0715	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3000	1.3000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.09
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Garrett Cleavinger (664076) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 6

All-history rows before 20260510: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.700	1.000	-0.500	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.100	1.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	2.0769	1.8462	0.2308	0.9231	0.9231	1.3846
last_10	0.35	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857
season	0.20	6	4.200	3.000	6.000	4.000	6.000	5.7857	2.1429	0.6429	1.2857	0.8571	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_ER	0.3120
predicted_ERA	3.9460
predicted_H	0.6730
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.7290
predicted_WHIP	1.4129

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3320	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3120	0.7980	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9460	3.9460	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6730	0.1976	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0770	0.0226	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7290	0.9204	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4129	1.4129	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	664076
playerID	664076
playerName	Garrett Cleavinger
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Home Team: BOS

Mickey Gasper (681508) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 0

All-history rows before 20260510: 0

System season_avg: 0.2452

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: 0.2452

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.006	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.494	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.332	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.813	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.423	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.453	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.859	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.150	-
predicted_3B	0.006	-
predicted_AB	3.494	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.332	-
predicted_H	0.813	-
predicted_HR	0.119	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.453	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.859	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.007
predicted_3B	0.008	0.002
predicted_AB	3.564	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.236	0.003
predicted_BB	0.322	-0.011
predicted_H	0.840	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.301	0.002
predicted_R	0.440	0.017
predicted_RBI	0.458	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.385	0.004
predicted_SO	0.858	-0.001

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1800
predicted_3B	0.0150
predicted_AB	3.8010
predicted_AVG	0.2452
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.3069
predicted_R	0.4960
predicted_RBI	0.4760
predicted_SLG	0.3969
predicted_SO	0.8540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1500	0.1800	0.1568	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0060	0.0150	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4940	3.8010	3.5638	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2452	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3320	0.2860	0.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8130	0.9320	0.8401	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1190	0.1220	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.3069	0.3008	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.4960	0.4396	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4530	0.4760	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3969	0.3846	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8590	0.8540	0.8579	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.3030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3028

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.3120

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_AB	3.770	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.737	2.000	-0.737	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.303	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.303	0.500	0.364	0.167
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	0.474	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.132	1.000	0.868	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	1.000	0.842	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.750	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.387	0.750	0.363	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	2.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	1.000	1.526	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.536	1.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.486	2.000	1.181	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.816	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.816	0.000	0.184	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.770	-
predicted_AVG	0.303	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.536	-
predicted_SO	0.816	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.096	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.012
predicted_AB	3.668	-0.102
predicted_AVG	0.303	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.653	0.127
predicted_H	1.110	-0.030
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.263	-0.007
predicted_OBP	0.410	-0.000
predicted_R	0.548	0.048
predicted_RBI	0.621	-0.019
predicted_SLG	0.536	0.000
predicted_SO	0.957	0.141

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.294 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4348	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	11.000	0.2941	0.4444	0.4706	0.2941	0.0588	0.1471	0.2941	0.3235
season	0.20	38	-	142.000	43.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	20.000	31.000	0.3028	0.3865	0.4859	0.3028	0.0423	0.1268	0.1409	0.2183

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5950
predicted_AVG	0.3029
predicted_BB	0.7440
predicted_H	1.0890
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2580
predicted_OBP	0.4096
predicted_R	0.5830
predicted_RBI	0.6070
predicted_SLG	0.5363
predicted_SO	1.0570

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.0520	0.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.0060	0.0143	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7700	3.5950	3.6677	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3030	0.3029	0.3029	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.7440	0.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.0890	1.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2580	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4096	0.4098	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5830	0.5485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6070	0.6207	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5360	0.5363	0.5362	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8160	1.0570	0.9568	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.303

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Masataka Yoshida (807799) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.0000

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.562	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	-0.562
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	0.000	-0.875
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	-0.364
predicted_R	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.438	0.000	-0.438
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.304	0.000	-0.304
predicted_SO	0.375	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.375	0.000	-0.375

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.043
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.615	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.416	-0.146
predicted_H	0.849	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.034	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.448	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.198	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.458	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.61), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2683	0.2564	0.2308	0.0256	0.0513	0.1026
season	0.20	16	-	56.000	14.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3636	0.3036	0.2500	0.0714	0.1607	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1050
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.7210
predicted_AVG	0.2353
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0370
predicted_OBP	0.2919
predicted_R	0.4580
predicted_RBI	0.2050
predicted_SLG	0.2962
predicted_SO	0.5360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1050	0.1450	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7210	3.6145	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2353	0.2352	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.2800	0.4159	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.8760	0.8490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0370	0.0336	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2919	0.2919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.4580	0.4484	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2050	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3750	0.5360	0.4584	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	807799
playerID	807799
playerName	Masataka Yoshida
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.1990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1987

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.4390

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.162	0.000	-0.162	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.081	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.081	4.000	-0.081	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.199	0.000	-0.199	0.000
predicted_BB	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.189	0.000	-0.189	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.811	0.000	-0.811	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_R	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_SO	1.405	0.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.405	3.000	-1.405	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.081	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.189	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.378	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	1.405	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	4.068	-0.013
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.143	-0.046
predicted_H	0.739	0.019
predicted_HBP	0.113	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.186	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.539	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 4.081

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	11.000	0.1429	0.1818	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5238
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	15.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2250	0.2000	0.0000	0.0250	0.0250	0.3750
season	0.20	37	-	151.000	30.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	14.000	7.000	52.000	0.1987	0.2360	0.2781	0.1987	0.0132	0.1192	0.0464	0.3444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	4.0580
predicted_AVG	0.1852
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.1130
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2272
predicted_R	0.4560
predicted_RBI	0.1910
predicted_SLG	0.2298
predicted_SO	1.6340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1620	0.0870	0.1182	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0810	4.0580	4.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1852	0.1851	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1890	0.1100	0.1429	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.7520	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1130	0.1130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0300	0.0300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2272	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3780	0.4560	0.4235	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.1910	0.1864	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2298	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4050	1.6340	1.5387	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.199

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 35

All-history rows before 20260510: 35

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1789

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2250

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.514	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.514	3.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.000	0.154	0.333
predicted_BB	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.333	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.000	0.076	0.333
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.260	0.000	0.407	0.667
predicted_SO	0.543	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.543	1.000	-0.543	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.514	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.314	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.543	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.602	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	-0.086
predicted_H	0.707	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.023	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.000
predicted_R	0.335	-0.065
predicted_RBI	0.446	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.2000	0.2432	0.2286	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.0571	0.1143
season	0.20	35	-	123.000	22.000	7.000	1.000	13.000	14.000	11.000	19.000	0.1789	0.2574	0.2602	0.1789	0.0081	0.1057	0.0894	0.1545

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6670
predicted_AVG	0.2086
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2450
predicted_R	0.2860
predicted_RBI	0.4800
predicted_SLG	0.2769
predicted_SO	0.5750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1670	0.1811	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5140	3.6670	3.6018	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2086	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3140	0.1640	0.2280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7650	0.7074	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2450	0.2450	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2860	0.3346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.4800	0.4459	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2769	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5430	0.5750	0.5614	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2764

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2660

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.618	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.618	4.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.500	-0.276	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	-1.000	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	1.000	-0.088	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.500	-0.346	-0.500
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.523	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.415	1.250	-0.415	-1.250
predicted_SO	0.882	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.618	-
predicted_AVG	0.318	-
predicted_BB	0.235	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.523	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.033	-0.026
predicted_AB	3.764	0.146
predicted_AVG	0.318	0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	0.034
predicted_H	1.137	0.127
predicted_HBP	0.060	-
predicted_HR	0.222	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.700	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.523	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.841	-0.041

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.302 HR/AB=0.059

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4545	0.7000	0.4000	0.1000	0.3000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	10.000	0.2821	0.3333	0.4359	0.2821	0.0513	0.1538	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	34	-	123.000	34.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	14.000	16.000	8.000	30.000	0.2764	0.3456	0.4146	0.2764	0.0244	0.1138	0.0650	0.2439

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	3.8730
predicted_AVG	0.3180
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.0600
predicted_HR	0.2380
predicted_OBP	0.3752
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.7590
predicted_SLG	0.5227
predicted_SO	0.8110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0540	0.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0130	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6180	3.8730	3.7643	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3180	0.3180	0.3180	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2350	0.2940	0.2688	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.2310	1.1368	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0600	0.0600	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2380	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3752	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.5730	0.5295	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7590	0.6997	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5230	0.5227	0.5228	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.8110	0.8413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 32

All-history rows before 20260510: 32

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1970

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2180

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.370	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.125	4.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.250	-0.009	0.000
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	0.000	-0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.370	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.411	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.241	-0.129
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.014
predicted_H	0.951	-0.029
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.205	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.285	-0.000
predicted_R	0.528	-0.066
predicted_RBI	0.612	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.209	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.37), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.370

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.4419	0.2093	0.0698	0.1628	0.0698	0.2791
season	0.20	32	-	132.000	26.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	19.000	10.000	36.000	0.1970	0.2587	0.3333	0.1970	0.0303	0.1364	0.0758	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	4.1470
predicted_AVG	0.2242
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_OBP	0.2847
predicted_R	0.4790
predicted_RBI	0.5990
predicted_SLG	0.4112
predicted_SO	1.2710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1670	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3700	4.1470	4.2414	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2242	0.2241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3370	0.3264	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9300	0.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2010	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2847	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.4790	0.5277	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.5990	0.6121	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4110	0.4112	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.2710	1.2092	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.3780

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.553	2.000	-0.553	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.209	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.526	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.526	2.000	0.474	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.921	0.000	-0.921	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.211	0.000	-0.211	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.339	0.250	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.376	0.500	-0.126	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.605	0.000	-0.605	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	1.237	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.237	1.000	-1.237	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.620	-
predicted_AVG	0.209	-
predicted_BB	0.526	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.339	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.450	-
predicted_SLG	0.400	-
predicted_SO	1.237	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.103	-0.002
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.577	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.209	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.629	0.103
predicted_H	0.744	-0.006
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.339	-0.000
predicted_R	0.460	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.448	-0.002
predicted_SLG	0.400	0.000
predicted_SO	1.284	0.047

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, weight=0.076, BvP AVG=0.429)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	8.000	0.1176	0.3043	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941	0.4706
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	12.000	0.2778	0.3778	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.1667	0.3333
season	0.20	38	-	135.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	23.000	19.000	20.000	47.000	0.2593	0.3758	0.4667	0.2593	0.0593	0.1704	0.1482	0.3482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5470
predicted_AVG	0.2087
predicted_BB	0.7020
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_OBP	0.3386
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.4460
predicted_SLG	0.4001
predicted_SO	1.3170

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1020	0.1032	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6200	3.5470	3.5773	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2090	0.2087	0.2088	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5260	0.7020	0.6290	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.7400	0.7441	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1910	0.1906	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3390	0.3386	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4310	0.4596	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4500	0.4460	0.4477	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4000	0.4001	0.4001	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2370	1.3170	1.2838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Marcelo Mayer (691785) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2211

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2550

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.276	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.276	4.000	-0.276	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.231	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.112	0.333
predicted_BB	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.724	0.000	0.276	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	0.966	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.292	0.000	0.041	0.333
predicted_R	0.241	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.241	0.000	0.759	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.276	0.000	1.724	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	1.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	1.028	1.333
predicted_SO	0.690	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.690	1.000	-0.690	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.276	-
predicted_AVG	0.231	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.690	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.241	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.690	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.492	0.216
predicted_AVG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.252	-0.025
predicted_H	0.776	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.114	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.311	0.070
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.824	0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.222 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2500	0.3077	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	29	-	95.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	7.000	8.000	20.000	0.2211	0.2925	0.3053	0.2210	0.0105	0.0842	0.0842	0.2105

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2306
predicted_BB	0.2320
predicted_H	0.8450
predicted_HBP	0.1140
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.3000
predicted_SLG	0.2772
predicted_SO	0.9300

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.0680	0.1141	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2760	3.6640	3.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2310	0.2306	0.2308	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.2320	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6900	0.8450	0.7763	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1140	0.1140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2974	0.2972	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2410	0.3660	0.3106	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3000	0.2734	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6900	0.9300	0.8236	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	691785
playerID	691785
playerName	Marcelo Mayer
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Payton Tolle (801139) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 3

All-history rows before 20260510: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.333	0.000	-1.333	0.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.733	7.000	-1.633	-2.900
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.667	8.000	-4.667	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566
last_10	0.35	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566
season	0.20	3	17.200	4.000	7.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	2.0377	0.7358	0.2264	0.3962	0.3396	1.3019	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8210
predicted_ER	1.8670
predicted_ERA	3.3892
predicted_H	3.6530
predicted_HR	0.5040
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	5.3940
predicted_WHIP	1.1041

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.8210	0.7028	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.8670	0.7205	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3892	3.3892	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.6530	3.8661	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5040	0.1945	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.3940	3.9239	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1041	1.1041	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	70

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.04
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	83
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	59
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	801139
playerID	801139
playerName	Payton Tolle
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.712	0.000	0.488	1.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	0.000	0.941	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	5.4000	1.6000	0.6000	1.6000	0.0000	0.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.100	3.000	11.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	2.8929	1.3929	0.3214	1.1786	0.2143	0.8571	0.1071
season	0.20	16	14.200	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	4.9091	1.4318	0.5454	1.1591	0.2727	1.2273	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4120
predicted_ER	0.6760
predicted_ERA	4.2827
predicted_H	1.5590
predicted_HR	0.2110
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2880
predicted_WHIP	1.3873

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4120	1.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6760	0.8759	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2827	4.2827	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5590	1.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2110	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2880	1.7272	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3873	1.3873	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	30

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.938	1.000	0.162	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.231	2.000	1.769	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	1.000	7.000	2.000	14.000	0.9310	0.9310	0.1035	0.7241	0.2069	1.4483
season	0.20	13	12.200	1.000	7.000	3.000	16.000	0.7105	0.7895	0.0790	0.5526	0.2368	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	2.9502
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3850
predicted_WHIP	1.1036

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3610	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4000	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9502	2.9502	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9870	0.9952	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1050	0.0387	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.3850	2.4041	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1036	1.1036	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	0.093	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-1.267	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	3.000	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	1.3125	0.5625	1.1250	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	5.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.1613	0.1935
season	0.20	15	15.100	6.000	13.000	6.000	19.000	2.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.8478	0.3913	1.2391	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3930
predicted_ER	0.5790
predicted_ERA	4.3162
predicted_H	1.1700
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2500
predicted_WHIP	1.2948

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3930	0.1523	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5790	0.2244	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.3162	4.3162	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1700	0.4534	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1780	0.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2500	0.4844	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2948	1.2948	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_TB@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jovani Morán (663558) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 11

All-history rows before 20260510: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.636	2.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.700	1.000	-0.600	0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.818	3.000	1.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	2.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	0.8000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475
season	0.20	10	20.100	6.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	3.000	2.6557	1.1311	0.2951	0.5902	0.5410	0.9836	0.1475

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_ER	0.6790
predicted_ERA	3.7472
predicted_H	1.3650
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_IP	1.2000
predicted_SO	1.5070
predicted_WHIP	1.3060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7650	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6790	0.2827	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7472	3.7472	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3650	0.5683	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2450	0.1020	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.2000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.5070	2.3784	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3060	1.3060	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

No simulation box-score row found for this player in the game JSON.

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	38
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	21
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663558
playerID	663558
playerName	Jovani Morán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 13

All-history rows before 20260510: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.908	1.000	-0.808	-0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	2.000	0.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.000	1.9286	1.9286	0.2143	0.8571	1.0714	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	1.000	3.2727	1.3636	0.3636	0.8182	0.5454	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	13.200	5.000	10.000	6.000	12.000	1.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	0.8780	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2930
predicted_ER	0.2310
predicted_ERA	3.6622
predicted_H	0.5100
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.5740
predicted_WHIP	1.4146

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2930	0.1102	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2310	0.0869	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6622	3.6622	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5100	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0570	0.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5740	0.8397	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4146	1.4146	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260506_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

20260510_WAS@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.51, "home_win_probability": 0.51, "away_win_probability": 0.49, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 MIA", "confidence": 0.51, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "final_prediction_synced": false, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "WAS 3 - 4 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"}}

Away Team: WAS

Luis García Jr. (671277) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 28

All-history rows before 20260510: 28

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2475

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: 0.0950

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.607	5.000	1.393	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.600	-0.248	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.893	3.000	-0.893	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.600	-0.274	-0.600
predicted_R	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	2.000	-0.643	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.600	-0.356	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.221	0.007
predicted_3B	0.021	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.704	0.014
predicted_AVG	0.276	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	-0.032
predicted_H	1.023	0.003
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.031	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	-0.000
predicted_R	0.462	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.511	0.001
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	0.746	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, weight=0.165, BvP AVG=0.095)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3158	0.2632	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.4167	0.3333	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.1944
season	0.20	28	-	101.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	18.000	13.000	4.000	18.000	0.2475	0.2736	0.3564	0.2475	0.0099	0.1782	0.0396	0.1782

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2260
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.7160
predicted_AVG	0.2759
predicted_BB	0.0850
predicted_H	1.0250
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0320
predicted_OBP	0.2936
predicted_R	0.4600
predicted_RBI	0.5120
predicted_SLG	0.3675
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2260	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0090	0.0210	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.7160	3.7045	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2759	0.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.0850	0.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.0250	1.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0320	0.0311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2936	0.2938	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.4600	0.4618	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5120	0.5111	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3675	0.3673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.8280	0.7460	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	671277
playerID	671277
playerName	Luis García Jr.
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brady House (691781) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 31

All-history rows before 20260510: 31

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2266

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2500

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	1.000	0.806	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.150	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.129	4.000	-1.129	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.250	0.107	0.083
predicted_BB	0.323	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	0.677	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.935	1.000	0.065	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.217	0.250
predicted_R	0.484	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.484	1.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.463	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.391	0.500	0.276	0.167
predicted_SO	1.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.290	2.000	-0.290	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.313	-
predicted_R	0.484	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.463	-
predicted_SO	1.290	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.042
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	4.006	-0.144
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.325	0.002
predicted_H	1.016	-0.034
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.184	-0.006
predicted_OBP	0.313	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.648	-0.022
predicted_SLG	0.463	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.150

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2162	0.3095	0.4324	0.2162	0.0541	0.2162	0.1351	0.2973
season	0.20	31	-	128.000	29.000	6.000	5.000	17.000	15.000	10.000	40.000	0.2266	0.2826	0.3906	0.2266	0.0391	0.1328	0.0781	0.3125

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2680
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.8990
predicted_AVG	0.2541
predicted_BB	0.3260
predicted_H	0.9910
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1800
predicted_OBP	0.3134
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.6310
predicted_SLG	0.4627
predicted_SO	0.9780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2680	0.2365	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1500	3.8990	4.0058	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2541	0.2541	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.3260	0.3247	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	0.9910	1.0161	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1800	0.1843	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3130	0.3134	0.3132	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4840	0.5340	0.5127	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6310	0.6476	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4630	0.4627	0.4628	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2900	0.9780	1.1107	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691781
playerID	691781
playerName	Brady House
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 22

All-history rows before 20260510: 22

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2537

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2540

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.045	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.045	4.000	0.955	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.773	0.000	-0.773	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	-0.338	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.258	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.000	-0.299	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.193	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.258	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.205	0.160
predicted_AVG	0.193	0.000
predicted_BB	0.216	-0.057
predicted_H	0.592	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.029	-
predicted_HR	0.025	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000
predicted_R	0.445	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.153	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.258	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.603	0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.008

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0312	0.0625	0.1562
season	0.20	22	-	67.000	17.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	6.000	11.000	0.2537	0.3377	0.2985	0.2537	0.0448	0.0896	0.1642

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1190
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3460
predicted_AVG	0.1930
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0290
predicted_HR	0.0300
predicted_OBP	0.2344
predicted_R	0.3560
predicted_RBI	0.1650
predicted_SLG	0.2577
predicted_SO	0.6930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1190	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0450	3.3460	3.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1930	0.1930	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.1660	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6460	0.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0290	0.0290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0300	0.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2344	0.2342	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.3560	0.4445	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1650	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2580	0.2577	0.2578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.6930	0.6026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Drew Millas (686452) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1833

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	0.842	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.158	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.158	4.000	-0.158	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.667	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.483	0.417
predicted_BB	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	0.737	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.579	1.000	1.421	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	1.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	0.947	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.246	0.250	0.504	0.500
predicted_R	0.421	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	1.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	2.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.263	1.000	1.737	1.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	2.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.250	1.717	1.750
predicted_SO	1.053	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.053	2.000	-0.053	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.158	-
predicted_AVG	0.228	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.053	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	0.016
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.255	0.097
predicted_AVG	0.228	0.000
predicted_BB	0.236	-0.027
predicted_H	0.699	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.123	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.489	0.068
predicted_RBI	0.411	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	1.122	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2667	0.3125	0.5333	0.2667	0.0667	0.2000	0.0667	0.4667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.3333	0.1818	0.0303	0.0909	0.0303	0.3939
season	0.20	19	-	60.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	5.000	20.000	0.1833	0.2462	0.2833	0.1833	0.0167	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.3460
predicted_AVG	0.2282
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.2761
predicted_R	0.5520
predicted_RBI	0.4490
predicted_SLG	0.4081
predicted_SO	1.1870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.1900	0.1745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1580	3.3460	3.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2280	0.2282	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.2110	0.2361	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7640	0.6992	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1229	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2761	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.5520	0.4887	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4490	0.4108	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4081	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0530	1.1870	1.1222	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	686452
playerID	686452
playerName	Drew Millas
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 40

All-history rows before 20260510: 40

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2434

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.010	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.667	0.007	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.025	0.000	-0.025	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.925	2.000	0.075	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.275	1.000	-0.275	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.800	0.005	-0.400
predicted_R	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.526	2.000	-0.276	-1.750
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	0.000	-1.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.010	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.875	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.410	-
predicted_R	0.875	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.539	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.354	0.104
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.839	-0.171
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.762	-0.113
predicted_H	1.092	-0.048
predicted_HBP	0.127	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-0.010
predicted_OBP	0.410	0.000
predicted_R	0.862	-0.013
predicted_RBI	0.735	-0.035
predicted_SLG	0.539	0.000
predicted_SO	1.361	-0.139

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 40

Reference playing time: 4.010

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4783	0.6667	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	0.2632	0.3778	0.4474	0.2632	0.0263	0.1842	0.1579	0.3684
season	0.20	40	-	152.000	37.000	10.000	11.000	28.000	35.000	35.000	60.000	0.2434	0.3947	0.5263	0.2434	0.0724	0.1842	0.2303	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4260
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.7220
predicted_AVG	0.2846
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_H	1.0590
predicted_HBP	0.1270
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.4101
predicted_R	0.8530
predicted_RBI	0.7110
predicted_SLG	0.5394
predicted_SO	1.2650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.4260	0.3543	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0100	3.7220	3.8394	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2846	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8750	0.6850	0.7624	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.0590	1.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1270	0.1270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1730	0.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4100	0.4101	0.4101	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8750	0.8530	0.8620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.7110	0.7351	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5390	0.5394	0.5392	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.2650	1.3608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	40
Season rows before report date	40
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	40
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2248

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2130

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.794	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	-0.794	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.333	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.109	0.333
predicted_BB	0.176	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	0.824	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.500	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.270	0.000	0.230	0.500
predicted_R	0.471	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.471	0.000	-0.471	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.333	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.000	0.008	0.333
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	1.000	-0.765	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.219	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.080	-0.038
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.797	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.219	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	0.021
predicted_H	0.801	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.118	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.607	0.136
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.719	-0.046

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, weight=0.057, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2105	0.2683	0.2895	0.2105	0.0263	0.1316	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	29.000	4.000	3.000	16.000	16.000	6.000	26.000	0.2248	0.2701	0.3256	0.2248	0.0233	0.1240	0.0465	0.2016

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0520
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.7990
predicted_AVG	0.2191
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.8320
predicted_HBP	0.1180
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.2820
predicted_R	0.7080
predicted_RBI	0.4540
predicted_SLG	0.3438
predicted_SO	0.6850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0520	0.0801	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.7990	3.7969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2190	0.2191	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2120	0.1967	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8320	0.8013	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1180	0.1180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1390	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2820	0.2820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.7080	0.6071	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4540	0.4395	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3438	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.6850	0.7191	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2468

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.256	1.000	-0.256	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.949	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.949	3.000	-0.949	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.333	-0.247	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.410	0.000	0.590	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.974	1.000	-0.974	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	-0.070	0.000
predicted_R	0.615	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.615	0.000	0.385	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.667	-0.370	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.795	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.795	0.000	0.205	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.949	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.410	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.615	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.342	-
predicted_SO	0.795	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.294	0.038
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.689	-0.260
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.037
predicted_H	0.815	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.122	-
predicted_HR	0.029	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.651	0.036
predicted_RBI	0.246	-0.014
predicted_SLG	0.342	0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	-0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.95), rates preserved: AVG=0.206 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.949

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3810	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.1714	0.2683	0.2571	0.1714	0.0000	0.0286	0.1143	0.2857
season	0.20	39	-	154.000	38.000	10.000	3.000	15.000	24.000	16.000	31.000	0.2468	0.3198	0.3701	0.2467	0.0195	0.0974	0.1039	0.2013

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3210
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	3.5060
predicted_AVG	0.2253
predicted_BB	0.4730
predicted_H	0.7900
predicted_HBP	0.1220
predicted_HR	0.0280
predicted_OBP	0.3260
predicted_R	0.6760
predicted_RBI	0.2370
predicted_SLG	0.3423
predicted_SO	0.7880

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2560	0.3210	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9490	3.5060	3.6888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2253	0.2252	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4100	0.4730	0.4470	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.7900	0.8148	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1220	0.1220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0280	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3260	0.3260	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6150	0.6760	0.6508	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2370	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3420	0.3423	0.3422	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7950	0.7880	0.7909	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.2310

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_3B	0.026	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.026	1.000	-0.026	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.632	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.632	5.000	0.368	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.400	-0.297	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.474	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	1.000	-0.079	-1.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.079	2.000	-1.079	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.396	0.400	-0.396	-0.400
predicted_R	0.605	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.605	1.000	-0.605	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.230	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.947	2.000	-0.947	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.585	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.551	0.800	-0.551	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.737	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	0.000	1.263	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.158	-
predicted_3B	0.026	-
predicted_AB	3.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.474	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.366	-
predicted_R	0.605	-
predicted_RBI	1.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.585	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.078
predicted_3B	0.074	0.049
predicted_AB	3.803	0.171
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.405	-0.069
predicted_H	1.159	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.034	-
predicted_HR	0.189	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.366	0.000
predicted_R	0.672	0.067
predicted_RBI	1.298	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.585	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.774	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.305 HR/AB=0.050

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, weight=0.121, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.6190	0.2857	0.0476	0.4286	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	15.000	8.000	5.000	8.000	0.3684	0.4419	0.6579	0.3684	0.0526	0.3947	0.1316	0.2105
season	0.20	38	-	138.000	41.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	36.000	23.000	18.000	28.000	0.2971	0.3963	0.5507	0.2971	0.0652	0.2609	0.1304	0.2029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2910
predicted_3B	0.1090
predicted_AB	3.9240
predicted_AVG	0.3058
predicted_BB	0.3560
predicted_H	1.2000
predicted_HBP	0.0340
predicted_HR	0.1950
predicted_OBP	0.3663
predicted_R	0.7190
predicted_RBI	1.3470
predicted_SLG	0.5846
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1580	0.2910	0.2358	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0260	0.1090	0.0745	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6320	3.9240	3.8027	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3058	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4740	0.3560	0.4050	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2000	1.1585	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0340	0.0340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1950	0.1888	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3660	0.3663	0.3662	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6050	0.7190	0.6717	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.2300	1.3470	1.2984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5850	0.5846	0.5848	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.8000	0.7738	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 34

All-history rows before 20260510: 34

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2124

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.1430

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.324	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.324	4.000	-0.324	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.000	-0.063	0.250
predicted_R	0.441	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.380	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.299	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	-0.239	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.765	2.000	-0.765	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.324	-
predicted_AVG	0.198	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.441	-
predicted_RBI	0.380	-
predicted_SLG	0.299	-
predicted_SO	0.765	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	0.002
predicted_3B	0.078	0.049
predicted_AB	3.238	-0.086
predicted_AVG	0.198	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.446	-0.025
predicted_H	0.599	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.344	-0.097
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.756	-0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	0.1333	0.2222	0.2667	0.1333	0.1333	0.1333	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2414	0.3429	0.3103	0.2414	0.1379	0.1724	0.2069
season	0.20	34	-	113.000	24.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	16.000	26.000	0.2124	0.3130	0.2389	0.2124	0.1239	0.1416	0.2301

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0330
predicted_3B	0.1150
predicted_AB	3.1730
predicted_AVG	0.1978
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	0.6280
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.2871
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.4180
predicted_SLG	0.2988
predicted_SO	0.7490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0290	0.0330	0.0313	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.1150	0.0781	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3240	3.1730	3.2377	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1980	0.1978	0.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4280	0.4464	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6280	0.5988	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0194	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2871	0.2871	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4410	0.2710	0.3439	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3800	0.4180	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7650	0.7490	0.7559	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Cade Cavalli (676917) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	3.000	2.000	1.000
predicted_IP	3.200	3.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.188	4.000	-0.987	-0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.000	2.000	-4.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	20.100	12.000	30.000	8.000	29.000	1.000	5.3115	1.8689	0.5902	1.4754	0.3934	1.4262	0.0492
last_10	0.35	8	34.200	16.000	42.000	17.000	40.000	1.000	4.1538	1.7019	0.4615	1.2115	0.4904	1.1539	0.0289
season	0.20	8	34.200	16.000	42.000	17.000	40.000	1.000	4.1538	1.7019	0.4615	1.2115	0.4904	1.1539	0.0289

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.6090
predicted_ER	2.0370
predicted_ERA	4.6574
predicted_H	4.7960
predicted_HR	0.2980
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	4.6980
predicted_WHIP	1.6271

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.6090	1.8094	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.0370	3.0430	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6574	4.6574	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.7960	5.9255	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2980	0.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.2000	4.0000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.6980	2.8028	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6271	1.6271	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.2
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	76
Pitching_R	6
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676917
playerID	676917
playerName	Cade Cavalli
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.917	1.200	-0.717	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.200	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.8621	1.1379	0.2069	0.9310	0.2069	0.6207	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	20.000	9.000	19.000	5.000	14.000	3.000	4.0500	1.2000	0.4500	0.9500	0.2500	0.7000	0.1500
season	0.20	12	25.100	10.000	24.000	6.000	18.000	3.000	3.5526	1.1842	0.3947	0.9474	0.2368	0.7105	0.1184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_ER	0.7300
predicted_ERA	3.5810
predicted_H	1.7260
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	2.0000
predicted_SO	1.4900
predicted_WHIP	1.2467

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5610	0.2465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7300	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5810	3.5810	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7260	0.7585	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1880	0.0826	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	2.0000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.4900	0.6548	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2467	1.2467	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	7

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.55
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 15

All-history rows before 20260510: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.807	1.100	0.293	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	2.000	-0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.100	1.000	4.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.6875	0.7500	0.1875	0.7500	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	2.000	11.000	1.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	1.2414	0.2069	1.1379	0.1035	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	15	14.200	5.000	16.000	3.000	16.000	1.000	3.0682	1.2955	0.3409	1.0909	0.2046	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_ER	0.4570
predicted_ERA	3.3990
predicted_H	1.1450
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1800
predicted_WHIP	1.2168

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3280	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4570	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3990	3.3990	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1450	0.4387	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1040	0.0398	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1800	1.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2168	1.2168	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_MIN@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 9

All-history rows before 20260510: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.222	3.000	1.778	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	1.6000	0.0000	0.8000	0.8000	1.4000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.100	1.000	8.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	0.8710	1.5484	0.0968	0.7742	0.7742	1.0645	0.0000
season	0.20	15	17.000	4.000	16.000	12.000	17.000	1.000	2.1176	1.6471	0.2353	0.9412	0.7059	1.0000	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5400
predicted_ER	0.3110
predicted_ERA	2.8003
predicted_H	0.8920
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	1.0570
predicted_WHIP	1.4325

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5400	0.8170	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3110	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8003	2.8003	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8920	0.3549	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0820	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.0570	2.2270	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4325	1.4325	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	30
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.368	0.000	-0.368
predicted_IP	0.100	0.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.811	0.100	-0.711
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.737	0.000	-0.737

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.200	3.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	2.7931	1.3448	0.3103	0.9310	0.4138	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	19	18.200	7.000	15.000	11.000	14.000	3.000	3.3750	1.3929	0.3750	0.8036	0.5893	0.7500	0.1607

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.2360
predicted_ERA	3.1152
predicted_H	0.5740
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6330
predicted_WHIP	1.2715

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2920	0.1190	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2360	0.0962	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1152	3.1152	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5740	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0700	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6330	0.2579	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2715	1.2715	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Home Team: MIA

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 5

All-history rows before 20260510: 5

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2860

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.389	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.350	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.347	0.147
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	0.066
predicted_H	0.757	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.115	0.115
predicted_RBI	0.314	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.815	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500
season	0.20	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.3750	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2670
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.5920
predicted_AVG	0.2469
predicted_BB	0.1760
predicted_H	0.8870
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.0750
predicted_OBP	0.2871
predicted_R	0.3080
predicted_RBI	0.3720
predicted_SLG	0.3893
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.2670	0.3502	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0090	0.0034	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.5920	3.3468	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2469	0.2470	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1760	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8870	0.7575	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0750	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2871	0.2870	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.3080	0.1153	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3720	0.3144	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3890	0.3893	0.3891	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8390	0.8146	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 38

All-history rows before 20260510: 38

System season_avg: 0.3510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3506

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.5110

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	1.000	0.737	0.000
predicted_3B	0.053	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_AB	4.090	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.053	5.000	-0.053	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.351	0.400	0.149	0.100
predicted_BB	0.158	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.079	0.000	-0.079	0.000
predicted_H	1.570	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.421	2.000	0.579	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.399	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.380	0.400	0.120	0.100
predicted_R	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	3.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	2.579	3.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	0.750	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.519	0.600	0.231	0.150
predicted_SO	0.763	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.763	1.000	0.237	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.053	-
predicted_AB	4.090	-
predicted_AVG	0.384	-
predicted_BB	0.158	-
predicted_H	1.570	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.399	-
predicted_R	0.684	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	0.763	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.307	0.044
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.024
predicted_AB	4.200	0.110
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000
predicted_BB	0.111	-0.047
predicted_H	1.613	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.399	-0.000
predicted_R	0.635	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.009
predicted_SLG	0.569	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.626	-0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.384 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 38

Reference playing time: 4.090

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.4091	0.4091	0.6364	0.4091	0.0454	0.0454	0.0000	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	6.000	0.4444	0.4444	0.6000	0.4444	0.0222	0.0889	0.0000	0.1333
season	0.20	38	-	154.000	54.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	16.000	26.000	6.000	29.000	0.3506	0.3804	0.5195	0.3507	0.0260	0.1039	0.0390	0.1883

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	4.2780
predicted_AVG	0.3842
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_H	1.6440
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3988
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.5687
predicted_SO	0.5280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.3390	0.3074	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0530	0.0120	0.0290	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0900	4.2780	4.1999	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1580	0.0780	0.1113	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.5700	1.6440	1.6132	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1420	0.1412	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3990	0.3988	0.3989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6840	0.6000	0.6349	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3450	0.3388	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5687	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7630	0.5280	0.6257	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	38
Season rows before report date	38
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	38
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.351

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 29

All-history rows before 20260510: 29

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1957

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: 0.1960

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	1.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	0.793	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.172	4.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.172	2.000	0.828	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.250	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.054	0.250
predicted_BB	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.621	0.000	0.379	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.253	0.250	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_R	0.310	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	1.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.204	0.500	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.000	0.207	0.500
predicted_SO	1.448	2.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.448	1.000	0.552	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.172	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.207	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.253	-
predicted_R	0.310	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.204	-
predicted_SO	1.448	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.142	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.001	0.001
predicted_AB	3.029	-0.143
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.279	0.072
predicted_H	0.416	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.129	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.253	-0.000
predicted_R	0.306	-0.004
predicted_RBI	0.412	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.204	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.271	-0.177

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.131 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.0833	0.2500	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.1667	0.1667	0.4167
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1111	0.2121	0.1481	0.1111	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.4444
season	0.20	29	-	92.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	15.000	9.000	6.000	42.000	0.1957	0.2500	0.2935	0.1956	0.0109	0.1630	0.0652	0.4565

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0900
predicted_3B	0.0020
predicted_AB	2.9150
predicted_AVG	0.1446
predicted_BB	0.3360
predicted_H	0.4210
predicted_HBP	0.1290
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2525
predicted_R	0.3030
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.2037
predicted_SO	1.1290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.0900	0.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0020	0.0011	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1720	2.9150	3.0293	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1446	0.1448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2070	0.3360	0.2786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4210	0.4161	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1290	0.1290	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0260	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2530	0.2525	0.2527	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3100	0.3030	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4130	0.4117	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2040	0.2037	0.2038	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4480	1.1290	1.2708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Christopher Morel (666624) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 7

All-history rows before 20260510: 7

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.1740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.250	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	-0.019	0.250
predicted_R	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.174	0.000	-0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	1.143	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.213	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.294	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.039	0.039
predicted_3B	0.003	0.003
predicted_AB	3.420	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.213	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	-0.013
predicted_H	0.694	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.033	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.273	-0.000
predicted_R	0.197	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.218	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.294	0.000
predicted_SO	1.092	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.42), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	7	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.1739	0.2692	0.1739	0.1739	0.0870	0.3478
season	0.20	7	-	23.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.1739	0.2692	0.1739	0.1739	0.0870	0.3478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6020
predicted_AVG	0.2130
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.7670
predicted_HBP	0.0330
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.2728
predicted_R	0.2710
predicted_RBI	0.2420
predicted_SLG	0.2943
predicted_SO	1.0220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0910	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0070	0.0030	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.6020	3.4199	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2130	0.2130	0.2130	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2550	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.7670	0.6938	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0330	0.0330	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0551	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2728	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.2710	0.1972	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2420	0.2178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2940	0.2943	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	1.0220	1.0917	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666624
playerID	666624
playerName	Christopher Morel
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Javier Sanoja (691594) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 21

All-history rows before 20260510: 21

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2740

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: 0.2740

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	2.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	4.000	-1.476	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.500	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	0.226	0.500
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.952	0.000	0.048	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.750	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.421	0.750
predicted_R	0.143	1.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.261	0.500	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.000	0.171	0.500
predicted_SO	0.524	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.524	0.000	-0.524	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.476	-
predicted_AVG	0.184	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.560	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.261	-
predicted_SO	0.524	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.487	0.011
predicted_AVG	0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	0.052
predicted_H	0.604	0.044
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.030	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.268	-0.000
predicted_R	0.245	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.261	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.615	0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.173 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1765	0.1177	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1515	0.2632	0.1818	0.1515	0.0000	0.1515	0.1515
season	0.20	21	-	73.000	20.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	6.000	11.000	0.2740	0.3291	0.3288	0.2740	0.0959	0.0822	0.1507

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.4960
predicted_AVG	0.1840
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.6430
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.2676
predicted_R	0.3350
predicted_RBI	0.1690
predicted_SLG	0.2606
predicted_SO	0.6950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1670	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4760	3.4960	3.4867	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1840	0.1840	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.3830	0.3378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5600	0.6430	0.6043	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0310	0.0305	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2676	0.2678	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.3350	0.2455	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1690	0.1601	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2610	0.2606	0.2608	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5240	0.6950	0.6153	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691594
playerID	691594
playerName	Javier Sanoja
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 30

All-history rows before 20260510: 30

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3241

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: 0.3270

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	3.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.667	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.343	0.667
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	2.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	0.833	2.000
predicted_HR	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.750	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.250	0.371	0.500
predicted_R	0.633	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.633	0.000	0.367	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.950	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	1.133	0.000	-1.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.591	0.667	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.602	0.000	0.065	0.667
predicted_SO	0.333	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.340	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.633	-
predicted_RBI	0.950	-
predicted_SLG	0.591	-
predicted_SO	0.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.072	-0.028
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.659	-0.041
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.389	0.056
predicted_H	1.097	-0.013
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.337	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.372	-0.000
predicted_R	0.551	-0.082
predicted_RBI	0.938	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.591	0.000
predicted_SO	0.488	0.155

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.091

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.801

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3810	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	0.000	4.000	10.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	0.3030	0.4000	0.6667	0.3030	0.1212	0.3030	0.1818	0.1818
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	35.000	3.000	9.000	34.000	19.000	10.000	10.000	0.3241	0.3790	0.6019	0.3241	0.0833	0.3148	0.0926	0.0926

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0500
predicted_3B	0.0030
predicted_AB	3.6270
predicted_AVG	0.2998
predicted_BB	0.4310
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.3340
predicted_OBP	0.3716
predicted_R	0.4890
predicted_RBI	0.9280
predicted_SLG	0.5910
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0500	0.0716	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0030	0.0017	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.6270	3.6586	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4310	0.3886	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.0870	1.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3400	0.3340	0.3366	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3716	0.3718	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6330	0.4890	0.5513	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9500	0.9280	0.9375	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5910	0.5910	0.5910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3330	0.6060	0.4880	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 39

All-history rows before 20260510: 39

System season_avg: 0.3190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3194

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.2280

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.051	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.051	0.000	-0.051	0.000
predicted_AB	3.940	5.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	5.000	1.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.200	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.319	0.200	-0.119	0.000
predicted_BB	0.564	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.564	0.000	-0.564	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.026	0.000	-0.026	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	1.000	-0.103	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.200	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.200	-0.210	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.359	1.000	-0.359	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.200	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.800	-0.279	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.436	1.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.436	1.000	0.564	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.051	-
predicted_AB	3.940	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.564	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.498	-
predicted_SO	0.436	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.126	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.848	-0.092
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.519	-0.045
predicted_H	0.960	-0.020
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.282	-0.008
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000
predicted_R	0.609	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.518	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.498	0.000
predicted_SO	0.424	-0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 39

Reference playing time: 3.940

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.5263	0.2105	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.5263	0.2632	0.0790	0.1316	0.1053	0.0526
season	0.20	39	-	144.000	46.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	14.000	26.000	22.000	17.000	0.3194	0.4096	0.4792	0.3194	0.0278	0.0972	0.1528	0.1181

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.7820
predicted_AVG	0.2499
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2770
predicted_OBP	0.3364
predicted_R	0.5670
predicted_RBI	0.5100
predicted_SLG	0.4985
predicted_SO	0.4160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0880	0.1257	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0510	0.0110	0.0276	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9400	3.7820	3.8475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2499	0.2499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5640	0.4870	0.5189	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	0.9450	0.9595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.2770	0.2824	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3364	0.3362	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5670	0.6085	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.5100	0.5183	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4980	0.4985	0.4983	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4360	0.4160	0.4243	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	39
Season rows before report date	39
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	39
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.319

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 37

All-history rows before 20260510: 37

System season_avg: 0.1750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1748

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: 0.1700

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.108	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.108	0.000	-0.108	0.000
predicted_3B	0.054	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.054	0.000	-0.054	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.865	3.000	-0.865	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.175	0.333	-0.175	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.595	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.595	1.000	0.405	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.081	1.000	-0.081	-1.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.676	1.000	-0.676	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.054	1.000	-0.054	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.500	-0.046	-0.250
predicted_R	0.568	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.568	1.000	-0.568	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	3.000	-0.324	-3.000
predicted_SLG	0.361	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.273	1.333	-0.273	-1.333
predicted_SO	1.189	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.189	1.000	-1.189	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.108	-
predicted_3B	0.054	-
predicted_AB	3.865	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.595	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.568	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.361	-
predicted_SO	1.189	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.043
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.025
predicted_AB	3.833	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.479	-0.115
predicted_H	0.757	0.017
predicted_HBP	0.125	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.495	-0.073
predicted_RBI	0.651	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.361	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.313	0.124

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.87), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

Sample-size BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, weight=0.067, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 37

Reference playing time: 3.865

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.4211	0.2105	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	6.000	18.000	0.1842	0.3111	0.3158	0.1842	0.0263	0.1316	0.1579	0.4737
season	0.20	37	-	143.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	21.000	22.000	44.000	0.1748	0.2959	0.2727	0.1748	0.0140	0.0839	0.1538	0.3077

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0110
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.2019
predicted_BB	0.3980
predicted_H	0.7690
predicted_HBP	0.1250
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.2982
predicted_R	0.4430
predicted_RBI	0.6590
predicted_SLG	0.3609
predicted_SO	1.4010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1080	0.1820	0.1514	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0540	0.0110	0.0288	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8650	3.8110	3.8333	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2019	0.2019	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5950	0.3980	0.4795	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.7690	0.7570	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1250	0.1250	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1340	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2982	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5680	0.4430	0.4947	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6590	0.6511	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3610	0.3609	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1890	1.4010	1.3133	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	37
Season rows before report date	37
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	37
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.175

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2424

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: 0.3750

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	1.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	3.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.750	-0.242	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	0.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	3.000	-0.941	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.750	-0.074	-0.500
predicted_R	0.588	0.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	2.000	-0.176	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.348	1.750	-0.348	-1.750
predicted_SO	1.118	0.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	0.000	-1.118	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.002	0.002
predicted_AB	3.892	0.010
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.056
predicted_H	1.023	0.013
predicted_HBP	0.018	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.611	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.414	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.263 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. simulation_box_score_reference

Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	15.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.3590	0.2564	0.0256	0.0769	0.1026	0.3846
season	0.20	17	-	66.000	16.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	19.000	0.2424	0.3243	0.3485	0.2424	0.0152	0.0454	0.1061	0.2879

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0040
predicted_AB	3.9010
predicted_AVG	0.2651
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_H	1.0340
predicted_HBP	0.0180
predicted_HR	0.1320
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.6310
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.4136
predicted_SO	1.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1740	0.2028	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0040	0.0021	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	3.9010	3.8920	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2651	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.3060	0.3560	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.0340	1.0227	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0180	0.0180	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1320	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.6310	0.6107	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3660	0.3632	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4136	0.4138	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	1.1610	1.1407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Sandy Alcantara (645261) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 8

All-history rows before 20260510: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.875	7.000	-0.875	-5.000
predicted_IP	4.100	4.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.400	4.100	-2.300	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	5.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 4.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.100	21.000	38.000	14.000	18.000	4.000	6.9146	1.9024	0.7683	1.3902	0.5122	0.6585	0.1463
last_10	0.35	8	51.200	23.000	48.000	18.000	36.000	4.000	4.0065	1.2774	0.4452	0.9290	0.3484	0.6968	0.0774
season	0.20	8	51.200	23.000	48.000	18.000	36.000	4.000	4.0065	1.2774	0.4452	0.9290	0.3484	0.6968	0.0774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2160
predicted_ER	3.0300
predicted_ERA	5.3012
predicted_H	5.7990
predicted_HR	0.6480
predicted_IP	5.0000
predicted_SO	4.0220
predicted_WHIP	1.5580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.2160	2.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	3.0300	2.5021	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3012	5.3012	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	5.7990	3.8520	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.6480	0.8284	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.1000	5.0000	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.0220	4.5232	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5580	1.5580	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.1
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	4.01
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	106
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	72
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260505_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	645261
playerID	645261
playerName	Sandy Alcantara
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 16

All-history rows before 20260510: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.200	1.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	1.000	0.412	0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	7.000	3.0000	1.3333	0.3333	0.7778	0.5556	0.7778
season	0.20	16	14.000	6.000	10.000	12.000	16.000	3.8571	1.5714	0.4286	0.7143	0.8571	1.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6770
predicted_ER	0.5320
predicted_ERA	3.3498
predicted_H	1.1680
predicted_HR	0.1180
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.3200
predicted_WHIP	1.2915

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6770	0.2563	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5320	0.2014	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3498	3.3498	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1680	1.6851	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1180	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.2000	1.1000	1.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3200	0.4997	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2915	1.2915	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.2
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.86
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260507_BAL@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 17

All-history rows before 20260510: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.100	1.100	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	0.429	0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.333

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.200	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	8.200	2.000	5.000	2.000	10.000	2.0769	0.8077	0.2308	0.5769	0.2308	1.1539
season	0.20	17	14.200	7.000	11.000	8.000	17.000	4.2955	1.2955	0.4773	0.7500	0.5454	1.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3780
predicted_ER	0.4350
predicted_ERA	3.2374
predicted_H	0.8770
predicted_HR	0.0980
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.1460
predicted_WHIP	1.0366

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3780	0.7617	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4350	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2374	3.2374	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8770	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0980	0.0375	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.1000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1460	0.4390	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0366	1.0366	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.1
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 12

All-history rows before 20260510: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.875	2.100	-0.875	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.200	2.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	2.0769	1.5000	0.2308	1.0385	0.4615	0.6923	0.1154
last_10	0.35	10	19.200	3.000	16.000	11.000	19.000	1.000	1.3729	1.3729	0.1525	0.8136	0.5593	0.9661	0.0508
season	0.20	12	23.200	3.000	18.000	13.000	24.000	1.000	1.1408	1.3099	0.1268	0.7606	0.5493	1.0141	0.0423

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6310
predicted_ER	0.4650
predicted_ERA	2.9608
predicted_H	1.3040
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_IP	1.1000
predicted_SO	1.2810
predicted_WHIP	1.3699

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6310	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4650	0.7687	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.9608	2.9608	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3040	1.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1470	0.0635	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1000	1.1000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2810	0.5538	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3699	1.3699	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	29
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	20
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260508_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260510: 19

All-history rows before 20260510: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_IP	0.200	0.200	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.668	0.100	-0.468	0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.789	0.000	0.211	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 0.667

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	0.0000	0.5000	0.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.7500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4444	0.0000	0.1111	0.3333	0.7778	0.0000
season	0.20	19	16.200	1.000	3.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	0.5400	0.5400	0.0600	0.1800	0.3600	0.9000	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2600
predicted_ER	0.2110
predicted_ERA	2.5694
predicted_H	0.4740
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.2000
predicted_SO	0.6600
predicted_WHIP	0.9918

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2600	1.3112	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2110	0.0835	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5694	2.5694	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4740	0.1876	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0241	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6600	0.8654	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9918	0.9918	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	0.2
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260509_WAS@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15